Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE — Bob Pettit

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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#21 » by Djoker » Fri Aug 2, 2024 3:41 am

OhayoKD wrote:by statstical impact i mean impact signals. The rest to me is just an eye-test with extra steps. Potentially useful, but said utility has to be justified, especially in a time-period you can 8-peat with average offense.

One thing I'm thinking about is how much i should care about the non-nba signals. Setting the highest point-differential ever is pretty impressive, especially when a team with walt, ballamy, and oscar fails to match it the following olympics. Goes without saying the damage was mostly done defensively.

I agree a game/season isn't much to work off.


Gotcha!

I agree that the NCAA + Olympics solidifies the case for rookie Russell having godly impact. It's actually tough to choose and I wonder if by choosing Pettit I'm overlooking Russell's impact which largely goes uncaptured by the box score (except of course rebounds).

However, I do think the Finals series itself carries major weight and it's hard to imagine that Russell outplayed Pettit in the series especially considering that he didn't have a ton of success defending Pettit. Team defense is obviously not captured here but Russell slowing down Pettit was one of his major tasks on the defensive end and he didn't really do a great job at it. Apart from Game 2 and Game 3, Pettit in fact kind of incinerated the Celtics' defense.

Game 1 - Hawks win by 2 (double OT)

Pettit: 37/14/1 on 53.2 %TS
Russell: 7/18/4 on 23.7 %TS

Game 2 - Celtics win by 20

Pettit: 11/13/0 on 28.2 %TS
Russell: 11/25/0 on 34.6 %TS

Game 3 - Hawks win by 2

Pettit: 26/28/0 on 34.8 %TS
Russell: 8/19/0 on 25.9 %TS

Game 4 - Celtics win by 5

Pettit: 33/16/0 on 58.1 %TS
Russell: 17/20/5 on 65.0 %TS

Game 5 - Celtics win by 15

Pettit: 33/15/3 on 59.8 %TS
Russell: 14/23/3 on 39.7 %TS

Game 6 - Hawks win by 2

Pettit: 32/23/5 on 47.5 %TS
Russell: 17/23/0 on 39.9 %TS

Game 7 - Celtics win by 2 (double OT)

Pettit: 39/19/3 on 49.1 %TS
Russell: 19/32/2 on 44.4 %TS

Series Averages

Pettit: 30.1/18.3/2.4 on 47.7 %TS (+2.8 rTS over league average)
Russell: 13.3/22.9/2.0 on 38.9 %TS (-6.0 %TS over league average)

In the last four games of the series, Pettit averaged 34.3/18.3/2.7 on 52.9 %TS (+8.0 rTS over league average). :o
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#22 » by trelos6 » Fri Aug 2, 2024 8:30 am

Neil Johnston season averages:

22.8 ppg, 0.544 TS%

Vs Bill Russell (7 games, 1-6 record)

18.7 ppg, 0.500 TS%

Games vs non Bill Russell

23.3 ppg, 0.546 TS%
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#23 » by 70sFan » Fri Aug 2, 2024 8:45 am

Would it be possible to join to the voting panel?
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#24 » by AEnigma » Fri Aug 2, 2024 12:46 pm

70sFan wrote:Would it be possible to join to the voting panel?

Welcome aboard.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#25 » by Djoker » Fri Aug 2, 2024 5:53 pm

I wonder also if we are underrating Cousy here. I feel he will barely make it or even miss out on some ballots despite being the league MVP and carrying the offense of the championship team. He had a horrid Game 7 of the Finals with 2-20 shooting which sticks out like a sore thumb but it's still only one game. And even in that one he had 11 assists so he did some good things.

Depending on how severely we penalize Russell for winning games, would it be reasonable to have Cousy > Russell... I am not going to do that but just thinking out loud.

Thinking more and more that my order will be 1. Pettit 2. Russell 3. Schayes 4. Cousy 5. Johnston.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#26 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Aug 2, 2024 6:49 pm

The Russell situation this year is one I've always wanted a better explanation about.

Why is it that Boston seems to become an elite defense the very year Russell joins the team...but before Russell joins the team?

I don't think there's really any doubt that no longer having Macauley has to be part of the equation, but it's hard to imagine it's the full story.

Anyway, yeah, I'm inclined to side with Pettit for the POY, but still find it hard to give the DPOY nod to anyone else.

One thing I'll say in terms of "stopping Pettit": I think the thing to understand about Russell is that he really is the guy who made the interior help defender the defensive anchor. Not that he couldn't be a fine man defender, but that's not what made the Russell Celtic defense the outlier that it was.

This then to say that if we're talking about the best man defender of the era, it's probably Hutchins or Martin (shout out Seymour over a shorter window), but they weren't giving their defense the kind of killer advantage that Russell would come to be known for.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#27 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Aug 2, 2024 6:55 pm

Djoker wrote:I wonder also if we are underrating Cousy here. I feel he will barely make it or even miss out on some ballots despite being the league MVP and carrying the offense of the championship team. He had a horrid Game 7 of the Finals with 2-20 shooting which sticks out like a sore thumb but it's still only one game. And even in that one he had 11 assists so he did some good things.

Depending on how severely we penalize Russell for winning games, would it be reasonable to have Cousy > Russell... I am not going to do that but just thinking out loud.

Thinking more and more that my order will be 1. Pettit 2. Russell 3. Schayes 4. Cousy 5. Johnston.


Not saying it's crazy to still have Cousy in your Top 5, but I think that MVP was pretty clearly not a reasonable choice based on what we know now. I really think the pace at which the Celtics played at made it look like the Celtics were still a really strong offensive team when they weren't any longer.

So what I see from Cousy this year is a) the offensive helio of b) a meh offensive team who c) was calling his own number too often. He probably won't make my OPOY ballot, and he's not what made the defense great.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#28 » by AEnigma » Fri Aug 2, 2024 7:02 pm

Ben estimates the Celtics as the #2 offence (+2). We discussed this discrepancy in the 1952 thread.

Bad playoffs, and starting in 1958 he becomes a consistently inefficient scorer, but I see no reason to assess his 1957 regular season as any different from the prior one.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#29 » by trex_8063 » Fri Aug 2, 2024 7:06 pm

Offensive Player of the Year
1. Neil Johnston - I felt like the OPOY should almost certainly come from the best offense in the league, particularly when it doesn’t look like an egalitarian achievement. So that means either Arizin or Johnston.
Honestly, I think it’s almost a toss-up between the two, who are once again co-anchoring that best offense without a ton of ancillary help. And while the Warriors are not terribly far from the mean offensively, they’re pretty substantially ahead of 2nd.
Anyway, the respective regular seasons of the two stars are pretty even offensively….
Johnston: 22.8 ppg @ +9.44% rTS (+273.3 TS Add), 2.9 apg (also 12.4 rpg, for as much as they may correlate with ORebs).
Arizin: 25.6 ppg @ +6.54% rTS (+230.8 TS Add), 2.1 apg (7.9 rpg, fwiw).

That’s heavily debatable, imo, though I’d lean slightly toward Johnston (worth noting he’s producing that statline in marginally less playing time compared to Arizin). In the playoffs, Johnston is terrible, though at least he’s there; Arizin is apparently injured, averages just 11 mpg (also at reduced effectiveness). And see my last post in the last thread regarding the dip they take in ‘59 (overall, but most especially on offense DESPITE Arizin having a resurgent year). The only real explanation is Johnston’s absence (this is indication of tangible impact, is why I bring it up).
Looking at it all, I’m going to give the slim edge to Johnston for this year.

2. Paul Arizin - Given he was very nearly a toss-up for #1, I can’t see going lower than #2. These guys were just so far ahead of EVERYONE in terms of efficient volume scoring (and obviously it had impact); so I don’t see a problem giving them 1 and 2 (though totally understand if others would want to inject guys like Schayes or Cousy or Pettit into the top 2).

3. Bob Cousy - OK, ZeppelinPage convinced me to move Cousy from my HM's into 3rd. As I've alluded to repeatedly, I suspect bbref underrates the Celtic ORtg's during the Russell era (due to inflated pace estimates); ZP [via citing Ben Taylor] reenforces this notion, as by Taylor's estimated paces, the Celtics were actually the 2nd-best offense in the league this year. Cousy appears the primary engine of this.

Top HM (previously my #3): Dolph Schayes - Very tough call. Pettit also a solid mention.
But ultimately I like Schayes' volume and efficiency (22.5 ppg [4th in league] @ +5.21% rTS (+168 TS Add [3rd in league]) to go along with 14 rpg [4th in league (some must be offensive)] and 3.2 apg [11th in league, and actually 1st on his team] slightly better than Bob Pettit's profile.
The Nats were a -0.4 rORTG overall, but he’s got not a lot of help: Red Kerr and Ed Conlin his best offensive help, and it drops off pretty precipitously after that.
In the playoffs his shooting efficiency falls off to league-average, though bear in mind 60% of the playoff sample is against the Russell Celtics. Schayes is averaging 21.4/18.0/2.8 in the playoffs. Though interestingly he lit the Celtics up for nearly 25 per game on excellent efficiency in three games vs Russell; it was the two games against Philly where he struggled tremendously.


Defensive Player of the Year
1. Bill Russell - idk, do I even need to justify this one? Even with the missed time at the start of the year (which I think one must be at least a little lenient towards, given it was missed for the purpose of the Olympics (bringing home gold)), he seems like the most worthy pick.

2. Maurice Stokes - No one is close to the Celtics in DRtg, but then 3rd is likewise not close to the Stokes and Royals (another +2.2 relative to Rochester). Stokes is the only guy even remotely close(ish) to Russell in rpg for the 2nd-best defense, with a strong defensive reputation besides. Enough said, imo.

3. Bob Pettit - The 3rd-leading rebounder in the league, and doing so for the 3rd-rated defense. Given his rep isn’t bad on this end, I’m leaning toward him to fill out my ballot (though am open to others).
Mel Hutchins is still in the league playing big minutes, but idk……it’s hard for me to give it to the “anchor” of the worst defense in the league; particularly given the Lakers lit them up for >120 ppg in a two-game series in the playoffs, too.


Player of the Year
1. Bob Pettit - Making my DPOY ballot, nearly making my OPOY ballot too; strong playoff showing, and dropping an efficient 30+ ppg on Bill Russell. Took the Celtics to 7 in the Finals, losing game 7 by two points in double-overtime (Pettit scored 39 pts).

2. Bill Russell - Although I’m sympathetic/lenient toward Russell’s absence early in the year, it can function somewhat as a tie-breaker. Also, I don’t feel Russell is quite “Russell” yet; I think his rookie season is arguably the worst season of his career (probably only ‘69 is in contention, imo).

3. Dolph Schayes - Behind Johnston and Arizin offensively, though I respect his defense more (and certainly the rebounds are suggestive). Given he has a strong playoff showing as well, he jumps the two of them and into 3rd for me.

4. Bob Cousy - Tentatively slid him in as 3rd on my OPOY ballot, and per the contemporary accounts provided by ZeppelinPage, he appears to be a bigger contributor to the defense than I'd previously credited him for. Ball pressure and turnovers (igniting that fast-break) appears to have been a MAJOR component of their success; and no perimeter player was on the court more than Cousy. Seems he created A LOT of turnovers, too.

5. Neil Johnston - OPOY for me. Just so phenomenal as a scorer, relevant as rebounder (+/- passer??) too. Could have been in contention for POY if not for the playoff fade.

Top HM: Can't believe I bumped Arizin. If not for the playoff injury, I highly doubt that would have occurred.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#30 » by Djoker » Fri Aug 2, 2024 7:41 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:The Russell situation this year is one I've always wanted a better explanation about.

Why is it that Boston seems to become an elite defense the very year Russell joins the team...but before Russell joins the team?

I don't think there's really any doubt that no longer having Macauley has to be part of the equation, but it's hard to imagine it's the full story.

Anyway, yeah, I'm inclined to side with Pettit for the POY, but still find it hard to give the DPOY nod to anyone else.

One thing I'll say in terms of "stopping Pettit": I think the thing to understand about Russell is that he really is the guy who made the interior help defender the defensive anchor. Not that he couldn't be a fine man defender, but that's not what made the Russell Celtic defense the outlier that it was.

This then to say that if we're talking about the best man defender of the era, it's probably Hutchins or Martin (shout out Seymour over a shorter window), but they weren't giving their defense the kind of killer advantage that Russell would come to be known for.


Agree about Russell's interior defense being the biggest driver of his impact. 100%

My point was that Pettit having a super strong offensive series (30.1 ppg on +2.8 rTS compared to league) does take away from that. We know that Russell did defend Pettit and Pettit was the main offensive weapon of the Hawks so him going off does take a bit of lustre off of Russell's case IMHO.

Also worth noting that unless something wonky is going on with pace, the Hawks seem to have put up much better offensive numbers in the Finals than all season long. From averaging 98.5 ppg in the RS to 110 ppg in the Finals. And from a 45.1 %TS in the RS to 45.6 %TS in the Finals. Again, it doesn't look like Russell's defense did much of a number on the Hawks as a team. Of course we don't have turnovers or offensive/defensive rebound splits but it really looks like that.

I'm afraid that this project may somewhat dampen my impression of Russell. Like Pettit here, Wilt too, while Russell did slow him down a lot in some years, managed roughly 30 ppg on far above league efficiency in many series against Russell. 15 years ago when the original project was done, no one was discussing efficiency relative to league average so it seems like Russell was obliterating Wilt and holding him to terrible efficiency but really he was holding Wilt to +5 instead of +10 efficiency, for example, so Wilt was still very efficient. We don't have opponent stats so all the relative efficiencies are compared to league average so Pettit and Wilt were even more efficient relative to the Celtics' defense.

Doctor MJ wrote:
Not saying it's crazy to still have Cousy in your Top 5, but I think that MVP was pretty clearly not a reasonable choice based on what we know now. I really think the pace at which the Celtics played at made it look like the Celtics were still a really strong offensive team when they weren't any longer.

So what I see from Cousy this year is a) the offensive helio of b) a meh offensive team who c) was calling his own number too often. He probably won't make my OPOY ballot, and he's not what made the defense great.


Fair enough.

I haven't thought about OPOY but I think Cous can still be up there.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#31 » by ceoofkobefans » Fri Aug 2, 2024 7:50 pm

Voting post

POY
1. Bob Pettit
2. Dolph Schayes
3. Bob Cousy
4. Paul Arizin
5. Maurice Stokes
HM: Neil Johnston

OPOY
1. Bob Cousy
2. Paul Arizin
3. Bob Pettit

DPOY
1. Maurice Stokes
2. Bill Russell
3. Tom Heinsohn

Will give explanations if needed
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#32 » by AEnigma » Fri Aug 2, 2024 7:55 pm

ceoofkobefans wrote:Voting post

POY
1. Bob Pettit
2. Dolph Schayes
3. Bob Cousy
4. Paul Arizin
5. Maurice Stokes
HM: Neil Johnston

OPOY
1. Bob Cousy
2. Paul Arizin
3. Bob Pettit

DPOY
1. Maurice Stokes
2. Bill Russell
3. Tom Heinsohn

Will give explanations if needed

If you read the first post, they are indeed needed.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#33 » by ZeppelinPage » Fri Aug 2, 2024 10:17 pm

I have Pettit as my POY, but it doesn't seem right to see such little love for Cousy.

For some background on this season, with the addition of Tom Heinsohn and Andy Phillip, the 1957 Celtics begin at 15-4 (including a 10-game win streak) when both Cousy/Sharman are healthy. Auerbach's teams were always the best conditioned, as he emphasized this in practices. And now the rebounding situation was significantly aided by the addition of Heinsohn, and their defense found more success through a full-court press that utilized the skill sets of their guards, which allowed the Celtics to force constant turnovers:
Auerbach: "Everybody's looking for the free man and talking on defense."

Spoiler:
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Cousy explains the defensive change: "Hustle and rebounding"

Spoiler:
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Celtics' superb physical conditioning and all-over-the-court harassing on defense forced Holzman's lads to lose possession 16 times.

Spoiler:
Image

Celtics force no less than 23 turnovers, Cousy with 5 steals and Phillip with 3.

Spoiler:
Image

Coach Auerbach put on a press using three little men.

Spoiler:
Image

Andy Phillip Key Man in Auerbach's Press

Spoiler:
Image

During their 10-game win streak, only the Hawks (3rd ranked offense) and Pistons (4th ranked offense) managed to score over 100 points. In fact, they played the Warriors (1st ranked offense) back-to-back in November and held them to 83 and 78 points. Sportswriters were quick to credit Tom Heinsohn as well as Jim Loscutoff, Jack Nichols, and Lou Tsioropoulos for their defensive performances:
Spoiler:
Image
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This early win streak, along with the impending arrivals of Bill Russell and Frank Ramsey, led to rumblings that the Celtics should be "broken up":
Spoiler:
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It cannot be overstated how instrumental Cousy was for the Celtics' hot start to the season. He had taken his game to another level as a dribbler, passer, and ball stealer. With the new additions and Cousy at the helm, the Celtics became a more balanced team that was already looking like a contender before Russell and Ramsey arrived.

October 29th:
Cousy 10 straight points in final 95 seconds to carry Celtics past the Knicks.

Spoiler:
Image

November 28th:
Cousy scores 27 points, steals ball 9 times, Hawks owner Ben Kerner: "One of the greatest performances any pro basketball player ever made--anywhere."

Spoiler:
Image
Image

December 2nd:
"Bob Cousy, whose playmaking magic is one of the big reasons for the fact the Celtics are leading the National Basket Ball Assocation by a big margin..."

Spoiler:
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December 6th:
"Cousy never has been better with his dribbling and ball hawking."

Spoiler:
Image

December 10th:
League says 10-game win steak largely due to Cousy.

Spoiler:
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December 12th:
Cousy hit for 9 straight points in close game.

Spoiler:
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December 19th:
"Cousy's dribbling, playmaking, and interceptions on defense were good evidence why he's recognized as the best player in the game--perhaps the best ever."

Spoiler:
Image

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The playoffs roll around, and Cousy's shot is still trying to return to form after being out for weeks to end the season with internal bleeding in his knee:
Spoiler:
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Image

In the Eastern Division Finals, Cousy averages 19 points, 9.7 assists, and likely quite a few steals--here's Al Bianchi after Cousy's Game 1 performance where he stole 'at least' 7 passes:
"I thought it was one of his best games against us. He really tortured us the way he kept coming up with our passes. Maybe he wasn't blinding us with his shooting. But between Russell blocking and Cousy stealing our passes it was a rugged evening for us."

Spoiler:
Image

And a mention of Cousy having his 'usual' half-dozen steals. His already league-leading stealing ability probably exploded when Russell joined:
Spoiler:
Image

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the Finals, Cousy plays more minutes than any player (46 MPG) and averages the most assists in Finals history up until that point.

With the Celtics down 1-2 in Game 4, Cousy has 31 points and 8 assists in a close Celtics victory.

In a vital Game 5 to go up 3-2, the Celtics shoot 46 FG% as a team, and Cousy has 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 19 assists, breaking his own record (15) for most assists in a playoff game. That many assists today is rare, back in 1957 it had only been eclipsed once before by Bob Davies (in a regular a season game). This kind of performance in the playoffs was unheard of, and it was certainly the greatest passing performance in playoff history at the time. I think people tend to gloss over this game to talk about his overall shooting efficiency in the series, but this was a legendary showing from Cousy, and is a testament to how valuable his passing could be.

Cousy's passing had Slater Martin admitting that he hadn't done a great job with Cousy:
"Besides, I haven't done a great job with Cousy, have I? In a couple of games I did all right. But Cousy hurt us with his passing when he wasn't shooting well."

Spoiler:
Image

While his shot was off, Cousy stepped his game up on defense and had Slater Martin struggling with 14/4 on 32% shooting:
Spoiler:
Image

Spoiler:
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I know some tend to make a big deal about Cousy's Game 7 performance, but there was a whole series leading up to that where he was playing very well. In Game 7, sharp shooter Bill Sharman shoots nearly as bad as Cousy in an exhausting 2OT, but Cousy does manage to hand out 11 assists and plays the entire game.

Although Cousy's efficiency suffered when Russell joined and the Celtics' pace and spacing declined, his passing and defensive play was finer than any season before this. This led to more opportunities for his teammates. It's always important to remember that the strategy of the Celtics revolved around the fastbreak, and nobody on the team could handle the ball like Cousy could. Naturally, he must take shots if nobody is open. And I'll finish with saying that there is a reason why Auerbach trusted him for so long--and I certainly won't argue against his basketball intelligence.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#34 » by AEnigma » Fri Aug 2, 2024 10:49 pm

Thank you for the excellent post and thorough citations, Zeppelin. Although I stand by Russell as the top Celtic in the postseason — for all the talk about the Celtics supposedly being the league’s best team even without Russell, they certainly did not look like it in the Finals — I agree that there seems to be no small paradox between people moving Russell down their ballot because of how well the Celtics played without him… and then also dismissing the leader of that Russell-less squad.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#35 » by OhayoKD » Fri Aug 2, 2024 11:30 pm

Aenigma wrote:Will make this my voting post



Will note that pretty good arguments have been made for this version of Cousy and I should have fact-checked the Cousy data instead of just Assuming Ben was forthcoming with the samples. 2.5 at this point in time is quite decent.

For the vote

1. Bob Petit

The cold data is not good for this stretch but it's a small sample and it's obviously not consistent with later larger sample signals. His scoring went up in the playoffs correlating with a 7-game series vs one of the few loaded rosters Russell actually played on. That said, I would caution people on reading to much into 7/6-game series against the Celtics as it happened rather often and there doesn't seem to be much correlation with the regular-season/supporting cast and how long these series went(The most dominant run came in 1969).

2. Bill Russell

Arguments can be made off the NCAA and Olympic feats, but ultimately it's not a clean enough comparison to disregard, not just the apparent superteamish nature of the Celtics, but also the missed time. I'm probably giving Russell 1st in 1958, but for now Russell will have to settle for being one of potentially 4 rookies to end-up top 2 in my poy vote. (The others being Bird, Kareem and Duncan, though it's quite possible on further analysis (playoffs!) hew ill be the only one.)

A few data-notes:

La Bird wrote:Firstly, not sure why people are saying Russell's 24 games missed is small sample size WOWY .,,/quote]
This is a reasonable position but I will be disappointed in parties weighing this sample proceed to ignore the 5+82+82 game samples covering 69 and the two ensuing seasons, including when the Celtics replaced Russell with hall-of-fame coach, and a hall-of-fame center, on top of a better scoring Hondo.

While with the rookie-sample you can point to non-nba signals and the ensuing (tiny-sampled) career splits where 11-titles becomes bad and b2b titles become bad and average with good replacements.

homecourtloss wrote:Russell :lol:

Image
Image
Image


While this data, given weight, helps Russell's argument, I will remind you it is still a fundamentally approach to this metric
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2257921&start=220
It uses tinier samples to regress tiny averages, and you can get wildly different results with minor tweaks in approach.

Moving on.

3. Dolph Schayes

A big-man in the 50's/60's being considered by all peers(at a point where that was usually the only evidence present) as one of this year and period's defining players feels like a natural choice here.

4. Bob Cousy

good WOWY for the period and successful without Russell this season. He might have gone top 3 if he seemingly played the same way in the playoffs he did in the regular season.

5. Neil Johnston

For this time period it's less about "why" for me and more about "why not?".

He made 5 first team all-nba's before this, very good reputation, and seems to have similar countables to when he was making the first team. He also gets an apriori boost as a center in the 50's/60's.








ZeppelinPage wrote:I have Pettit as my POY, but it doesn't seem right to see such little love for Cousy.

For some background on this season, with the addition of Tom Heinsohn and Andy Phillip, the 1957 Celtics begin at 15-4 (including a 10-game win streak) when both Cousy/Sharman are healthy. Auerbach's teams were always the best conditioned, as he emphasized this in practices. And now the rebounding situation was significantly aided by the addition of Heinsohn, and their defense found more success through a full-court press that utilized the skill sets of their guards, which allowed the Celtics to force constant turnovers:

Spoiler:
Image


Spoiler:
Image


Spoiler:
Image


Spoiler:
Image


Spoiler:
Image


Spoiler:
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During their 10-game win streak, only the Hawks (3rd ranked offense) and Pistons (4th ranked offense) managed to score over 100 points. In fact, they played the Warriors (1st ranked offense) back-to-back in November and held them to 83 and 78 points. Sportswriters were quick to credit Tom Heinsohn as well as Jim Loscutoff, Jack Nichols, and Lou Tsioropoulos for their defensive performances

A solid case here for Heinsohn getting a ballot spot as well as well as Red having a positive impact as a coach. Curious why you're giving Cousy more credit for the Celtics success though. The Celtics were a better defense than offense during this stretch, Cousy was already on the team the previous year, and in the following season Cousy's counting numbers don't amount to the Celtics dropping off during his 7 game-absence(they actually get better by SRS per Ben). This happens again when he misses a 5 games in 60 and the Celtics are unaffected when he leaves the team permanently. I also find it notable that between 58 and his final departure, the team improving or decreasing doesn't seem to have any correlation with his minutes or assists increasing or decreasing.

A trend that corroborates the simplest explanation conceivable for the multiple negative srs-signals(including one right after 1957), the Celtics continuing to rack up titles when he was a low-minute player, and not playing, and their continued winning when he wasn't on the roster, and the 3 additional titles they added without him playing at all: Cousy's importance to the team, really only evidenced by indirect sources, was greatly overstated.

This kind of performance in the playoffs was unheard of, and it was certainly the greatest passing performance in playoff history at the time.

That's strong. The nature of the assists matters as well(as well as the nature of what isn't taken or what shooters miss). If cousy is taking out only 1 or no defenders for the bulk of these assists, then they aren't very valuable. Not saying that's neccesarily the case, but if it is, then the assist-average is extremely unlikely to net you "best passing performance of all time" or even "one of the best".

An assist can range from functionally worthless to very valuable. Just because 60's writers decided basketball reference counting numbers were inherently valuable doesn't mean we should. Particularly in an era where observable individual impact and team-success came as close to being monopolized as they ever have been by a figure with relatively pedestrian counting numbers; and particularly with a player whose most successful teams never seemed to really miss him and the teams he theoretically would have been very valuable to were never especially successful.


And I'll finish with saying that there is a reason why Auerbach trusted him for so long--and I certainly won't argue against his basketball intelligence.

I would say there is a higher bar for a POY ballot spot then being considered useful. And again, if we go with direct evidence/primary sources rather than hearsay...
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Not saying it's crazy to still have Cousy in your Top 5, but I think that MVP was pretty clearly not a reasonable choice based on what we know now. I really think the pace at which the Celtics played at made it look like the Celtics were still a really strong offensive team when they weren't any longer.

So what I see from Cousy this year is a) the offensive helio of b) a meh offensive team who c) was calling his own number too often. He probably won't make my OPOY ballot, and he's not what made the defense great.
[/quote]

Doc MJ's interpretation seems much better supported to me than the prevailing one that's been recycled for decades.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#36 » by ZeppelinPage » Sat Aug 3, 2024 12:24 am

OhayoKD wrote:A solid case here for Heinsohn getting a ballot spot as well as well as Red having a positive impact as a coach. Curious why you're giving Cousy more credit for the Celtics success though. The Celtics were a better defense than offense during this stretch, Cousy was already on the team the previous year, and in the following season Cousy's counting numbers don't amount to the Celtics dropping off during his 7 game-absence(they actually get better by SRS per Ben). This happens again when he misses a 5 games in 60 and the Celtics are unaffected when he leaves the team permanently. I also find it notable that between 58 and his final departure, the team improving or decreasing doesn't seem to have any correlation with his minutes or assists increasing or decreasing.

A trend that corroborates the simplest explanation conceivable for the multiple negative srs-signals(including one right after 1957), the Celtics continuing to rack up titles when he was a low-minute player, and not playing, and their continued winning when he wasn't on the roster, and the 3 additional titles they added without him playing at all: Cousy's importance to the team, really only evidenced by indirect sources, was greatly overstated.


I'm mainly going to focus on '57 Cousy, rather than anything later in his career and past his prime (which anything past 1960 would be). I personally don't take much stock in 5-7 game WOWY samples from so long ago. Because of that, we're just going to have very different outlooks on Cousy! Although it is worth noting that, according to Ben Taylor, the Celtics had the 2nd ranked offense this year and that's with Russell. So, I'd personally call them a more balanced squad, and have Cousy leading the way offensively with the usage he's taking on.

That's strong. The nature of the assists matters as well(as well as the nature of what isn't taken or what shooters miss). If cousy is taking out only 1 or no defenders for the bulk of these assists, then they aren't very valuable. Not saying that's neccesarily the case, but if it is, then the assist-average is extremely unlikely to net you "best passing performance of all time" or even "one of the best".

An assist can range from functionally worthless to very valuable. Just because 60's writers decided basketball reference counting numbers were inherently valuable doesn't mean we should. Particularly in an era where observable individual impact and team-success came as close to being monopolized as they ever have been by a figure with relatively pedestrian counting numbers; and particularly with a player whose most successful teams never seemed to really miss him and the teams he theoretically would have been very valuable to were never especially successful.


I confidently view Cousy's assists as quite valuable based on what we know about his playstyle from those that watched his career (players, coaches, writers, etc.) I've also extensively tracked his film and came away very impressed with his passing and creation ability for a player of his era. This helped me verify the sources we have on his playstyle as correct.

All I can really do is share what I know based on the research I've done and anyone can take it or leave it!
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#37 » by AEnigma » Sat Aug 3, 2024 1:33 am

The Celtics were 3-5 without Cousy in 1957. Want to increase the sample? 8-7 without him across 1957/58. 12-10 without him 1957-59. 13-12 without him 1957-61. And 1957 was his best offensive year of this entire chunk — albeit likely because of the lessened time spent with Russell (otherwise, 1959 has a strong claim).

My criticisms with Cousy in this period are as a postseason player; claiming the team was not affected by his absences is demonstrably wrong until we reach the end of his career (and relatedly, the peak of Russell’s). Before that they were 2.5 points better with him in the lineup, which may not be an astounding signal — although what was that about SRS thresholds? — but is plenty good for the era:
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#38 » by One_and_Done » Sat Aug 3, 2024 2:26 am

Player of the Year
1. Bill Russell - Even though Russell didn't start the season, and even though the Celtics were good without him, I'll still take Russell at #1. That's how bad this league was. Russell's skillset and impact were the most valuable, even if it wasn't deployed consistently. This was such a bad league, the other players are just nowhere near as impactful. I'm not sure one other player in this league could start today, but I feel confident Russell could at least be an elite rim roller today.






2. Bob Pettit - He scored well in the playoffs, including against Russell, taking the Celtics to 7 in the Finals, and barely losing game 7. Not buying his impact today, but in this league he was #2.

After that it gets tough. I guess if I have to vote for anyone it'll be:
3. Schayes
4. Arizin
5. N.Johnston

I don't feel strongly about the last 3, but they played valuable roles in a league where their player types were very impactful.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#39 » by Dr Positivity » Sat Aug 3, 2024 4:17 am

Well Cousy sounds better than on D this year than I thought, I had Sharman as the defender of the two, but it may be closer than I thought and it would make sense if Cousy was D-ing up during his later poor shooting years. Still it’s hard to crack top 4 of Pettit Russell Schayes Johnston. Maybe the latter but his stats are really great. I’ve been voting Schayes as more impactful this whole era than Cousy and I won’t stop here.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1956-57 UPDATE 

Post#40 » by Dutchball97 » Sat Aug 3, 2024 12:10 pm

Player of the Year
1. Bob Pettit - Very strong performer on both sides of the ball who, with Russell missing a significant amount of games, is the runaway POY in my eyes. Pettit already was a close runner-up for MVP but should've by all means have won it over Cousy in a year the Celtics won with defense and had a pretty average offense despite the likes of Sharman and Heinsohn also being on the team and performing well. I've mentioned it before but Pettit being 1st in play-off WS and then 5 Celtics taking up spots 2-6 before we see another Hawk is a very telling picture as to how much help the respective stars on the teams had. Pettit leading the Hawks all the way to a game 7 against this extremely strong Celtics squad is more than enough to show he was doing more with less.

2. Bill Russell - Yes he did miss quite a few games but he did play the entire post-season and averaged over 40 MPG right away as a rookie. The defensive improvement adding Russell made was insane, of course we can't give all of the credit to him but most of it definitely. This is visible just as much in the play-offs as it is in the regular season. Probably could've snatched the #1 spot if he missed less games and had a bit more primacy over Cousy.

3. Dolph Schayes - Another strong year from Schayes, especially on the defensive side of the field though as his post-season scoring left some to be desired. Against the Celtics, Schayes had about as much of a carryjob as Pettit although the results were a bit less flattering. Schayes averaged 42.7 MPG, while the next most on his team was Ed Conlin with 28.3 MPG. Meanwhile on the Celitcs Cousy, Heinsohn and Russell were all playing just over 39 MPG, with Sharman also clocking in about 32 MPG. While I see Pettit and Russell as a clear top 2 this season, Schayes is the best of the rest with not a lot of others making strong claims for themselves.

4. Bob Cousy - Despite my criticism of his impact this season with the Celtics becoming a more defensive oriented team, he was still just as much of an elite guy as previous years individually. It's kind of hard to dish out credit on the Celtics as ROY Heinsohn and All-NBA 1st teamer Sharman were also adding a lot of impact to the team and either would've probably been the 2nd best player on any other team than the Celtics (taking into account the Arizin injury of course). That said, Cousy does seem to have provided more hustle on defense on previous seasons while also ramping up his playmaking once again with him not having to carry as much of a scoring load anymore. The other guys in contention for this spot just didn't stick around long enough in the post-season to really make a strong case.

5. George Yardley - Very similar seasons for Yardley and Jonhston here. Both made the All-NBA 2nd team and although Arizin has more eye popping stats he did play next to Arizin as well, who was the real leader of the team. Then both Yardley and Johnston got eliminated from the play-offs in just 2 games but the circumstances how couldn't be more different. Yardley held up really well, while Johnston had a big chance to step up with Arizin's injury but didn't capitalize on it. At this point it just seems the moment Arizin isn't there to lead the way, Johnston crumbles.

Offensive Player of the Year
1. Bob Pettit
2. Bob Cousy
3. Dolph Schayes


Johnston, Arizin and Yardley miss out because I'm going with consistency here. Pettit especially is just such a consistent scorer this season I don't think anyone else really stacks up. Cousy is still in the conversation mainly due his combination of scoring and ever more impressive playmaking. Schayes is in a similar boat as Pettit with a pretty consistent performance across the season but his play-offs efficiency hurts his case a bit.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Bill Russell
2. Maurice Stokes
3. Dolph Schayes


Russell and Stokes are the 2 clearest impact drivers on defense this season, with Russell of course being well ahead as his team won the title while the Royals once again did not make it to the play-offs. I doubt a lot of other players in the future will get the same benefit of the doubt as Stokes on a non-play-off team but I don't think it'd be fair to exclude him when his impact is so obvious on defense. Schayes stays impactful on both sides of the ball and leads a pretty strong defense in the post-season.

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