Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE — Bill Russell

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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#21 » by penbeast0 » Sun Aug 18, 2024 1:45 am

eminence wrote:I don't have this as peak West, but I don't see much reason to not include it in his prime.

I can see the Pettit case over Baylor due to the missed games (semi voluntarily), but the Lakers were so good in the games he played, I'll be sticking with Baylor. Bellamy has a kind of similar case to Pettit as well.


What is the Lakers record with and without Baylor this year? I wanted to vote for Elgin as a local hero (Spingarn HS) but his team was so solid overall and he missed so many games I went Pettit instead.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#22 » by eminence » Sun Aug 18, 2024 2:10 am

penbeast0 wrote:
eminence wrote:I don't have this as peak West, but I don't see much reason to not include it in his prime.

I can see the Pettit case over Baylor due to the missed games (semi voluntarily), but the Lakers were so good in the games he played, I'll be sticking with Baylor. Bellamy has a kind of similar case to Pettit as well.


What is the Lakers record with and without Baylor this year? I wanted to vote for Elgin as a local hero (Spingarn HS) but his team was so solid overall and he missed so many games I went Pettit instead.


They were 37-11 with Baylor, and 17-15 without.

Decent team without, but pushing equality with the Celtics with.

Next season they go 42-13 with West and 11-14 without him.

I'd need to go through and check which games they both missed sometime. But the '62 and '63 Lakers look like an ATG non-champion when both West and Baylor were both healthy, 79-24 (~63 win pace in games where the more injured star played in a given season).
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#23 » by eminence » Sun Aug 18, 2024 2:44 am

Mmkay, didn't double check, but first glance for the combos with West/Baylor in '62 and '63.

With both: 79-24 (63 win pace)
With West only: 15-12 (46 win pace)
With Baylor only: 12-15 (36 win pace)
With neither: 1-2 (27 win pace)
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#24 » by penbeast0 » Sun Aug 18, 2024 4:48 am

eminence wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
eminence wrote:I don't have this as peak West, but I don't see much reason to not include it in his prime.

I can see the Pettit case over Baylor due to the missed games (semi voluntarily), but the Lakers were so good in the games he played, I'll be sticking with Baylor. Bellamy has a kind of similar case to Pettit as well.


What is the Lakers record with and without Baylor this year? I wanted to vote for Elgin as a local hero (Spingarn HS) but his team was so solid overall and he missed so many games I went Pettit instead.


They were 37-11 with Baylor, and 17-15 without.

Decent team without, but pushing equality with the Celtics with.

Next season they go 42-13 with West and 11-14 without him.

I'd need to go through and check which games they both missed sometime. But the '62 and '63 Lakers look like an ATG non-champion when both West and Baylor were both healthy, 79-24 (~63 win pace in games where the more injured star played in a given season).


Thanks, that's stronger impact evidence than I thought it was.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#25 » by AEnigma » Sun Aug 18, 2024 5:10 am

One note I would like to add is that I think it does reflect very strongly on this iteration of Baylor that the Lakers plummet from that two-season peak once he stops being a significantly effective volume scorer. The 1964 team is more along that 46-win pace with Baylor and West and are even upset by the Hawks, and that is with West entering his scoring peak.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#26 » by Dutchball97 » Sun Aug 18, 2024 12:12 pm

Player of the Year
1. Bill Russell - This is a pretty difficult call and I'm honestly somewhat surprised nobody so far has went with Wilt over Russell but I'm not the one who is going to deviate here either. Russell won the MVP by quite a distance and imo that was well deserved. The Celtics were far and away the best team in the league, driven by no other team even belonging in the same atmosphere as them defensively. This is of course largely driven by Russell and this season, maybe more than any other, it's even more obvious with Heinsohn and Jones barely averaging over 30 MPG, while Russell barely got off the floor at all. Russell's MVP and his incredibly consistent performance in the play-offs against strong competition gives him the edge for me even despite Wilt making a solid case in their play-off series.

2. Wilt Chamberlain - Insane scoring in the regular season to go along with elite defense and even although his scoring didn't hold up as well in the post-season, it should be noted they played the Celtics and the #2 defense, the Nationals. Overall a very strong season that would've earned a #1 spot in most seasons but Russell was just unstoppable this year.

3. Oscar Robertson - While not as far removed from the competition as the Celtics are to the rest of the league on defense, Oscar is still leading the very clear best offense with alright help at most. Even though I was 1 of 2 people to leave him off my ballot last season, with the Royals making the play-offs that won't happen this time around. They still get eliminated quickly but overall I see Oscar as being a bit on an island at 3rd. Russell and Wilt had clearly better seasons, while West and Baylor take too much credit from each other at this point to challenge Oscar's spot.

4. Elgin Baylor - Missing games in the regular season should be a factor and it is as without it, Baylor could've made a serious push for #3 or even #2. That said whenever Baylor and West played together it still looks like Baylor was the more impactful player. I did consider putting West ahead and especially for people who value the regular season more heavily compared to the post-season as I do, that's not a crazy thing at all but Baylor remains just ahead for me in large part due to him stepping up in terms of scoring in the play-offs as well as his crazy rebounding numbers for a wing.

5. Jerry West - Still not quite Jerry West at the peak of his powers but he's steadily getting there. I'm still more impressed with the guys ahead of him for the moment but on the flipside I don't think there are really any other serious contenders for this spot. Pettit could've made it but he wasn't nearly dominant enough in the regular season to get into consideration without a post-season (I'm not even sure someone like Wilt next season or Kareem in 75 or 76 will make my ballot so Pettit is quite a way off for me). Sam Jones deserves a mention but I don't think he carried enough of a load with 30 MPG in the regular season and 36 MPG in the play-offs, while the guys making the list were all playing well over 40 MPG in both the regular season and play-offs.

Offensive Player of the Year
1. Oscar Robertson
2. Elgin Baylor
3. Wilt Chamberlain


Oscar is the clear best offensive player in the league in my opinion. Leads the best offense in both the regular season and play-offs, while being one of the best scorers in the league and the best playmaker. Baylor was already among the top offensive players in the regular season but stepped up even more in the play-offs, it also helps the Lakers were also performing very well offensively as a team. This last part made me seriously consider West for the last spot, especially as the Warriors didn't seem to hold up as well in the post-season on offense but I can't justify keeping Wilt off my ballot with his insane scoring as well as not having too much help.

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Red Kerr


It will still be a few years before I even consider someone else than Russell for the DPOY award. Wilt is also still a clear 2nd place once again with Red Kerr looking like the most impactful player on the defensive end on a team that was the 2nd best defense in the regular season and 3rd best defense in the play-offs.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#27 » by eminence » Sun Aug 18, 2024 1:21 pm

Player of the Year
1. Bill Russell
What to say about Bill this season... -8.5 defense (bbref estimate), crazy stuff. I like the Cousy/Jones/Sanders/Heinsohn cast, but that's Bill. Still a #4 on offense, but a good one and maybe his best overall offensive season. Included some clutch playoff performances (the FT shooting in particular is one I can always appreciate). The defense, my god the defense. Very comfortable saying nobody else was even close, and that's in a league with early prime Wilt.

2. Wilt Chamberlain
If Gola hadn't gotten hurt to end the season there's a decent chance Wilt would've pulled the upset and taken the #1 spot. But not quite. Incomprehensible scoring numbers, and I mean that literally, to my eye only good-not-great offensive impact (I'm not a big Rodgers fan, if you think he's good offensively I'm not sure it's possible to even see Wilt as above average offensively). Strong defender even without focusing on it due to 1% physical tools, but not close to Russell. Being 'limited' (only to your own standard) by Russell and the Celtics is not a notable worry in any situation but a direct comparison with Russell. I doubt the scoring fall was accompanied by any notable impact fall based on the scoreboard.

3. Jerry West
Looks like I'll be a bit higher on West than most, but I'm really impressed with what the Lakers did this season, and West was the 1B with Elgin who played a bunch more time than his 1A (and I can see arguing for West as the 1A or them as true equals). Don't have complete box #s, but we know he was scoring ~34 pts/game when Elgin was out, a signal for him scaling up if necessary. A strong defensive guard - puts him about on par with Elgin who was a solid defensive forward. Not particularly impressed with the Lakers cast from 3 on down so giving most of the credit to the stars (notably worse than the Celtics depth, and pretty comparable to the other decent teams imo).

4. Oscar Robertson
After the regular season I'm not sure what order I'd go with 2-4, Oscar may well have been #2. Oscar didn't exactly lay an egg in the POs, but it was at least a bit disappointing to get upset by the Pistons in relation to the other guys in contention for the spots. Could Oscar have done what West did this season - I absolutely believe so, maybe even better, but he didn't. It's the original KG vs Duncan comparison (except Duncan is injury prone). On the Team Ortg - I think both are true A) Oscar was the best offensive player in the league B) The Royals put together a very talented offensive 3-5 that a good guard could elevate but was naturally going to lead to a poor defense.

5. Elgin Baylor
Missed a bunch of games, but played great when he played. I'm very impressed by how good the Lakers were when he/West were both playing. They translated that play to the playoffs just fine and took the Celtics to the absolute brink. On level of play he's in the 2-4 group, but missed games matter a fair amount.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#28 » by ZeppelinPage » Sun Aug 18, 2024 3:41 pm

By all accounts, 1962 was a year Wilt vastly improved--especially with his fadeaway jumper:
"Chamberlain kept Pettit from being more pleased with the night's proceedings by being virtually unstoppable. Again and again he fired fall-away jump shot that bounced off the backboard and through the netting, sometimes hitting from as far as 15 or 20 feet away.

'That is a shot that Wilt has worked to develop this season,' said Philadelphia coach Frank McGuire. 'He gets away for an occasional dunk shot and he tips some in, but he sometimes makes as many as three-fourths of his field goal attempts a fair distance from the basket.'"

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"'I always felt,' Hannum said last week, 'that although Wilt's total shooting percentage was around 50 percent, it wasn't everything like that when he moved away from the basket for that fallaway jump shot of his. In other words, the large number of dunks and layups he got made his overall average high, but that his chances weren't very good when he had to shoot from further out.'

'But now he has improved that jump shot so much that even when you force him to take it, he hits a tremendous percentage--if not actually 50 percent, enough to kill you.'"

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"Chicago coach Jim Pollard thinks Chamberlain can go out indefinitely at his accelerated pace and 'will score 100 points in an NBA game. His fadeaway jump shot is a lot better.'

Red Auerbach, coach of Boston's defending champions, agrees Chamberlain's fallaway shot has made him even a bigger threat."

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"'He's improved so much it isn't funny,' allowed Elgin Baylor, who had a pretty fair night himself with 52 points. 'He's making more offensive moves than I ever saw before. He's mastered that fall-away jumper so he just doesn't miss it, and he's moving much more to his right.'

'Used to be you could force Philly to keep the ball on the right side of the court and help contain him that way. That was his bad side, because all he had over there was the hook. Now he'll make a move to the left, spin off his man and go right around him. I bet he scored 20 points from his bad side tonight. And he's taking advantage of his teammates instead of letting us take advantage of him.'"

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"'He's getting better all the time,' said McGuire. 'It's not just a case of his being the tallest man. So far this year he has been hitting from out. His shooting has been good and it's getting better. And he's getting stronger.'"

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"Wilt no longer has to linger under the board to specialize on dunk shots. He has not had to rely on this type of shooting this season, although he dunks when the occasion permits. But Wilt has become devastating with his fall-away jump shot, bouncing the ball off the boards into the nets from 15 to 20 feets away.

True enough enough, he has been kept to his lowest point production when he had to contend with Russell, but we cannot agree that this proves that he can be stopped by competent defense. Russell simply has a stronger supporting cast than most of Wilt's foes."

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He was also having immense games blocking shots:
"Chamberlain hauled down 33 rebounds last night and observers said he also blocked about 20 Chicago Packer shots."

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"The first time Wilt Chamberlain faced Chicago's struggling Packers he blocked nine consecutive shots attempted by rookie Walt Bellamy."

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"Chamberlain was held to 22 points by Russell Thursday night but the cold figures did not tell a true tale of the tall Warrior's game. He had 22 rebounds and was immense in blocking shots."

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It's also amusing to see predictions of Wilt scoring 100 points before it ever happened:
"'One of these days,' he [Frank McGuire] vowed, 'the big man is going to score a hundred, even if they play the whole team on him.'"

Spoiler:
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"Asked about McGuire's 100-point comment. Baylor agreed that Wilt would hit 100 some night."

Spoiler:
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#29 » by ZeppelinPage » Sun Aug 18, 2024 4:00 pm

I must say that Wilt bringing the 8.25 SRS Celtics to the brink without a healthy Tom Gola is absolutely ridiculous. The Warriors played fantastic defense (Wilt in particular really stepped his game up on that end), but they essentially lost the possession battle as a result of rebounds and turnovers. Gola could have helped in that department. The Warriors probably should have been defeated in 4 or 5, but instead lost on a buzzer.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#30 » by LA Bird » Sun Aug 18, 2024 8:25 pm

Player of the Year
1. Bill Russell
2. Wilt Chamberlain
3. Oscar Robertson
4. Jerry West
5. Elgin Baylor


Celtics with Russell were +10.4 MOV when no other team in the league was even +3.
In the 4 games Russell missed, Celtics were -12.3 MOV and allowed 21.2 more points.

1962 is remembered as the year with crazy numbers (Wilt 50/25, Baylor 38/19/5, Oscar 31/12/11) but the defensive dominance of Russell was greater than all those individual statlines. He was the runaway MVP in the regular season and while the Celtics did cut it very close in the playoffs, they ultimately still did enough to win another championship. I don't see anyone else making up enough ground to overtake Russell in the postseason when he had one of his best playoffs performances too.

A popular Wilt argument is that he would have been the GOAT if he had won G7 and the title. But let's consider the two scenarios:
1. You are a ring counter. Winning proves the champ was the best so there is no point entertaining "what if" hypotheticals. In this case, Russell won so he must have been better than Wilt.
2. You are not a ring counter. The better player can be on a team that lost the series. In this case, there is nothing stopping you from ranking Wilt higher than Russell already if you think he was the better player. Saying Wilt needed to have won G7 to be ranked higher is inherently a ring counter argument.
Personally, I think the hypothetical is pointless anyway because a 2 point swing in G7 doesn't fundamentally change anything about either teams or players. Even if the Celtics had lost, it does not nullify their entire season of absolute dominance. For me, the problem is with the initial premise that Wilt was by default the better player because of his statline. If that's the case, why were Baylor/Oscar/West not better players than Russell too? How about Bellamy and his 32/19/3 on +8% rTS? And if all of these guys were better than Russell because of stats, why is it the Celtics that was destroying every other team in the league?

With all that being said, I think 62 Wilt is now underrated as a scoring season among the more statistical basketball fans. People mistakenly use pace and minute adjustments all the time as if it's the solution to everything when it should only have been the first step in the basketball 'analytification' journey. There are clear differences across eras which are not accounted for if we just extrapolate everything to per 75 (or 100) possession. Sure, 62 Wilt wasn't all that historically special at 28.5 pp75. But nobody ever points out that Oscar in the same season was barely scraping past 20 points by the same method. Prime Kareem's volume also look very underwhelming in the low 20s after pace and minute adjustments too but we turn a blind eye to it when discussing him as an all time scorer. Wilt is the only player who gets criticized for this because the sheer volume of a 50 ppg season is too unreal. If he had averaged a more mortal 40 ppg, it wouldn't be nearly as polarizing. Even if we include Baylor (who technically didn't qualify because of missed games), Wilt won the 1962 scoring title by a larger margin over #2 and #3 than anyone else in history. He absolutely had one of the best volume scoring regular seasons of all time. Just too bad he played in the same period as the best defensive player of all time.

West enters his prime and will be a mainstay on the top 5 for years to come. Already a high impact player as we see from his missed games the following season but I don't think he was a top shooter just yet. His FT% in his first 4 seasons were 67%, 77%, 78%, 83% which suggests he needed time to develop his shooting touch. Assist numbers were also low compared to later in his career though that is somewhat deceptive given different league environments (West was 3rd in assists as early as 64 with only 5.6 per game). Oscar is still ahead for me until West catches up a bit on offense so he goes #3 again. Baylor missed 40% of the season but it didn't really hurt the team that much in the grander scheme of things since they still made it to the Finals as the #1 seed. I don't really get the point of penalizing him in relation to Pettit who didn't exactly go anywhere anyway despite playing the full season. The Lakers could have literally went 0-32 without Baylor and still made the playoffs ahead of Pettit's Hawks. To be fair, the Hawks' one year collapse on defense does seem strange and I haven't delved deeper into the causes but at the end of the day, there is not really a case to be made for Pettit when the other three perimeter superstars were superior on offense and he's on the worst defensive team in the entire league.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#31 » by trelos6 » Sun Aug 18, 2024 8:46 pm

Image

Per 75 helps to adjust for pace and minutes. Wilts teams played fast and he played A LOT. That said, ‘62 Wilt is still a massive outlier for ‘60’s scoring. Just not as much in all time scoring.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#32 » by eminence » Sun Aug 18, 2024 8:59 pm

Wilt was clearly a *box-score* scoring outlier in the 60s. It doesn't seem likely his scoring is outlier level in terms of impact (at least given traditional takes that he was an elite rebounder and an at least good defender) - there are at least a few players like Baylor/Pettit/Oscar/West I'd put over him as a scorer.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#33 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Aug 18, 2024 10:48 pm

I still don't like that Wilt is averaging 2.4 assists to around 47 scoring possessions a game (39.5 FGA + 17 FTA) or how few assists that is when you're playing 48.5 minutes at 131 pace. His supporting cast is also now solid with Meschery and Attles as credible 5th and 6th guys along with Arizin, Gola, Rodgers, with a pretty balanced mix of skillsets, even with Gola missed 20 games they could've had more of a breakout in the regular season. Overall I'm in the camp of only upgrading Wilt starting in 64.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#34 » by LA Bird » Sun Aug 18, 2024 10:55 pm

trelos6 wrote:Image

Per 75 helps to adjust for pace and minutes. Wilts teams played fast and he played A LOT. That said, ‘62 Wilt is still a massive outlier for ‘60’s scoring. Just not as much in all time scoring.

62 Wilt scored 21.2% more points per possession than #2 and #3, a lead which ranks third all time.

The only reason people say 62 Wilt's scoring numbers aren't impressive after adjustments is because they compare per possession numbers across eras. Do we compare raw ORtg for teams across eras? No. So why is the same logic not used here when team ORtg is literally just the summation of points per possession for individual players?
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#35 » by penbeast0 » Sun Aug 18, 2024 11:58 pm

Not sure why the comp in the per 75 graph is Wilt v. Pettit. The big debates are Wilt v. Russell, Oscar v. West, and Pettit v. Baylor. When looking at just scoring, I tend to make my first cut TS Add as it takes into account efficiency relative to league, scoring volume, and amount of time played.

Let's look at the years Pettit and Baylor are in the league together which include all of Baylor's best years, though quite possibly not all of Pettit's.

1959 Pettit 250.6, Baylor 110.3 (Pettit's peak year, Baylor's rookie year; Pettit's rookie year was a bit below Baylor's but this isn't close in terms of comtemporary impact).
1960 Pettit 173.3, Baylor 109.3 (Pettit drops off a bit, Baylor plateaus, Pettit still comfortably ahead)
1961 Pettit 173.3, Baylor 148.2 (Baylor's peak year, still can't quite catch Pettit)
1962 Pettit 203.5, Baylor 49.8 (Baylor's military service limits him to half a season)
1963 Pettit 137.5, Baylor 137.5 (Pettit's worst year between his 1st and last, Baylor pulls up into a tie)
1964 Pettit 204.7, Baylor 8.8 (Pettit pulls his numbers back up in his age 31 season, Baylor's efficiency relative to league drops badly)
1965 Pettit 69.2, Baylor -70.8 (This time Pettit misses half the season with injury and retires, Baylor drops below league average efficiency and stays there in 66 and 67)

So, Pettit's efficiency is creating considerably more points over league average than Baylor's. Pettit has a rebounding and defense edge; Baylor a playmaking edge and is the more explosive while Pettit is the more consistent. Pettit's career before Baylor came into the league is also quite strong; Baylor's after Pettit retires is not as powerful.

This is just one stat and it rates efficiency very strongly but it's a good shorthand look why I consistently rate Pettit over Baylor as the best forward before Erving.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#36 » by trelos6 » Mon Aug 19, 2024 12:43 am

penbeast0 wrote:Not sure why the comp in the per 75 graph is Wilt v. Pettit. The big debates are Wilt v. Russell, Oscar v. West, and Pettit v. Baylor. When looking at just scoring, I tend to make my first cut TS Add as it takes into account efficiency relative to league, scoring volume, and amount of time played.


It’s an old pic I pulled ages ago off Bob Pettit’s backpicks profile.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#37 » by Djoker » Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:13 am

trelos6 wrote:Image

Per 75 helps to adjust for pace and minutes. Wilts teams played fast and he played A LOT. That said, ‘62 Wilt is still a massive outlier for ‘60’s scoring. Just not as much in all time scoring.


29 pts per 75 on +6 rTS is pretty insane when you realize he was doing it for 130 possessions per game! He played almost two games worth of possessions in every one game! Just the sheer motor required to do what Wilt did is mind-boggling.

I wonder if we are actually underrating Wilt. I have a feeling if Gola was healthy and/or they got luckier and somehow squeaked by Boston, we may be calling his season the greatest in history. A part of me wonders... yet I'll probably vote Russell #1. :lol:
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#38 » by OhayoKD » Mon Aug 19, 2024 4:22 am

Pretty conflicted on the #1 for this thread. My head says Bill but my gut says Wilt.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#39 » by penbeast0 » Mon Aug 19, 2024 11:08 am

If Wilt's amazing individual numbers had translated to strong team offense like in 67, I'd be voting him. As his team was not that impressive offensively but strong defensively, we have to look at him v. Russell on that end and Russell always wins that comp.
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Re: Retro Player of the Year 1961-62 UPDATE 

Post#40 » by OhayoKD » Mon Aug 19, 2024 12:55 pm

penbeast0 wrote:If Wilt's amazing individual numbers had translated to strong team offense like in 67, I'd be voting him. As his team was not that impressive offensively but strong defensively, we have to look at him v. Russell on that end and Russell always wins that comp.

This doesn't really make sense to me.

Why are you looking at one side of the floor when evaluating a two-way player? Wilt does not have to be carrying his offense to "strong" for the offensive impact and the defensive impact to be higher than Russell's total impact. There's no reason theroetically that Wilt carrying a bad offensive roster to mediocrity while being the most impactful defender on a strong defense couldn't be the results in greater total value provided.

While there is certainly a case for Russell as more impactful, this approach seems almost circular. Russell's value is more uni-directional, naturally he will reach higher highs if you disregard one side of the floor.

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