ATG Offensive Engines LeBron, Magic, Jordan, Curry, Nash, and Jokic and Playoff Series

[falcolombardi]

Very interesting! With all obvious "it's a team game" caveats, impressive feats by the guys with big numbers here.

Figure it makes sense to consider this in terms of ratios too so for example:

LeBron played in 54 series, and his team had >8 rORtg 22 times. 40.7%
Jordan played in 37 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 18 times. 48.6%
Magic played in 40 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 16 times. 40.0%
Nash played in 23 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 47.8%
Curry played in 28 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 39.3%
Jokic played in 14 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 3 times. 21.4%

Obviously the last of these looks very different than the others.

I do think it would be interesting to see how other stack up with Jokic only through Jokic's current age. Obviously with someone like Magic his stats are largely going to look the same, but I'd expect some of the others come down to earth at least a bit.

Somethingh else to consider is the sampling not being equal in distribution of series through their careers.

Like how pre prime lebron from 2006-2008 played in 9 playoff series but similar age pre prime 85-87 jordan played in only 3 playoff series.

Wizards jordan played no playoffs series but post 35 years old lebron has (and played well, but not as well as if hr was younger)


Is the thingh with averages being like that famous example of "average means that if you have 2 houses and i am homeless, we both have 1 house on average"

Good point. For example, from 2009 through 2018, LeBron played in 37 playoff series, a number which would nearly comprise the entirety of all playoff series played for almost all players here. In these 37 series:

59% were 8+ rORtg
48.6% were 10+ rORtg
18.9% were 12+ rORtg
10.8% were 18+ rORtg <—This is a crazy number

Yep

[Colbinii]

Huh?

Your first example is +5.9 rORtg and the second is +11.3 rORtg. I don't follow.

One of these teams is a +5 SRS team, the other is "only" +3.34 SRS.

But yes. I think looking at offensive performances against stronger teams in general, not just stronger defenses, is informative.

So a player posting a +5 rORTG against a 6 SRS team with +7.0 rOrtg, +1.0 rDrtg, is more impressive than a player posting +10 rOrtg against a 4 SRS team with +1.0 rOrtg, -5.0 rDrtg?

Can't say this computes for me.

Why not do somewhere where instead of an arbitrary cut-off, you use a gradient where you put more weight on higher-level teams.

Another issue with your methodology of 5 SRS as a cutoff is not all 5 SRS teams are equal. Comparing rOrtg against all 5 SRS teams, without account for Drtg, seems foolish. Perhaps you should include the average or median rDRTG of all the 5+ SRS teams.

I like the gradient idea and have thought of it. I could do a more thorough analysis like that but it will take time.

Wouldn't include DRtg because rORtg is already relative to that. Team quality in general makes more sense thus SRS.

Woah, hold on here. I think there is something very important regarding DRTG and rORTG.

What is more impressive, a +10 rORTG against a good defense or a +10 rORTG against a bad defense?

[Colbinii]

2023 Jokic Playoff Run:
Average Opponent SRS: .53
Average Opponent Drtg: 113.5
rOrtg Produced: 6.2

2012 LeBron Playoff Run:
Average Opponent SRS: 3.42
Average Opponent Drtg: 101.3
rOrtg Produced: 9.0

But 2023 Jokic was a GOAT level offensive run

LeBron produced 3 series +10 rORTG in 2012 playoffs. Jokic produced 0.

[Colbinii]

Miami LeBron James
16 Playoff Series
Average SRS Faced: 3.0
Average rORTG: +8.0

[Djoker]

One of these teams is a +5 SRS team, the other is "only" +3.34 SRS.



So a player posting a +5 rORTG against a 6 SRS team with +7.0 rOrtg, +1.0 rDrtg, is more impressive than a player posting +10 rOrtg against a 4 SRS team with +1.0 rOrtg, -5.0 rDrtg?

Can't say this computes for me.

Why not do somewhere where instead of an arbitrary cut-off, you use a gradient where you put more weight on higher-level teams.

Another issue with your methodology of 5 SRS as a cutoff is not all 5 SRS teams are equal. Comparing rOrtg against all 5 SRS teams, without account for Drtg, seems foolish. Perhaps you should include the average or median rDRTG of all the 5+ SRS teams.

I like the gradient idea and have thought of it. I could do a more thorough analysis like that but it will take time.

Wouldn't include DRtg because rORtg is already relative to that. Team quality in general makes more sense thus SRS.

Woah, hold on here. I think there is something very important regarding DRTG and rORTG.

What is more impressive, a +10 rORTG against a good defense or a +10 rORTG against a bad defense?

They are equally impressive. rORtg as calculated is relative to opponent DRtg. There's expectation that a team's ORtg will drop against good defenses but not their rORtg.

[Colbinii]

I like the gradient idea and have thought of it. I could do a more thorough analysis like that but it will take time.

Wouldn't include DRtg because rORtg is already relative to that. Team quality in general makes more sense thus SRS.

Woah, hold on here. I think there is something very important regarding DRTG and rORTG.

What is more impressive, a +10 rORTG against a good defense or a +10 rORTG against a bad defense?

They are equally impressive. rORtg as calculated is relative to opponent DRtg. There's expectation that a team's ORtg will drop against good defenses but not their rORtg.

I disagree. A defense isn't simply a number.

A good defense will have better counters, better players and better scheme. A bad defense will have more holes, more weaknesses, worse players, and be easier to exploit.

It isn't as simple as saying rORTG = Goodness, without taking into account opponent faced.

Being able to produce a +10 rORTG against a GOAT level defense is far more impressive than destroying the 18th ranked defense in a random season by +10 rORTG.

[Colbinii]

2020 LeBron vs 2023 Jokic

2023 Jokic Playoff Run:
Average Opponent SRS: .53
Average Opponent Drtg: 113.5
rOrtg Produced: 6.2

2020 LeBron Playoff Run:
Average Opponent SRS: 1.9
Average Opponent Drtg: 111.4
rOrtg Produced: 5.1

These seem fairly comparable, which is quite far down the list for LeBron James in terms of Playoff Runs.

[Colbinii]

Lebron and Magic played in way weaker confereces than Nash/Jokic/Curry

That's not true.

2023 Jokic Playoff Run:
Average Opponent SRS: .53
Average Opponent Drtg: 113.5
rOrtg Produced: 6.2

2012 LeBron Playoff Run:
Average Opponent SRS: 3.42
Average Opponent Drtg: 101.3
rOrtg Produced: 9.0

[Ainosterhaspie]

If you're trying to claim that we should look at SRS to measure how impressive offensive production is instead of offensive production, you are quite obviously pursuing and agenda not knowledge.

SRS is certainly a reasonable thing to consider when evaluating players in a broader context, but in the context of this thread it's nothing more than an obvious cope and attempt to obfuscate.

[oaktownwarriors87]

Lebron and Magic played in way weaker confereces than Nash/Jokic/Curry

When I analyzed offensive play, I used a filter of 5+ SRS opposition to assess how they perform against better teams and Magic's teams hold up but Lebron's teams look weak. So indeed Lebron padded his numbers against weak opposition.

I could probably add Nash/Jokic to that analysis as well at some point.

Here is a link to the original thread (post #90):
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2373020&start=80

This is some great work. Everyone should read this.

[oaktownwarriors87]

I like the gradient idea and have thought of it. I could do a more thorough analysis like that but it will take time.

Wouldn't include DRtg because rORtg is already relative to that. Team quality in general makes more sense thus SRS.

Woah, hold on here. I think there is something very important regarding DRTG and rORTG.

What is more impressive, a +10 rORTG against a good defense or a +10 rORTG against a bad defense?

They are equally impressive. rORtg as calculated is relative to opponent DRtg. There's expectation that a team's ORtg will drop against good defenses but not their rORtg.

90 to 100 is an 11.11% jump
120 to 130 an 8.33% jump

Does rORTG account for that? Honest question.

[Colbinii]

Woah, hold on here. I think there is something very important regarding DRTG and rORTG.

What is more impressive, a +10 rORTG against a good defense or a +10 rORTG against a bad defense?

They are equally impressive. rORtg as calculated is relative to opponent DRtg. There's expectation that a team's ORtg will drop against good defenses but not their rORtg.

90 to 100 is an 11.11% jump
120 to 130 an 8.33% jump

Does rORTG account for that? Honest question.

No, rORTG is simply [[Team A Offensive Rating in Series] - [Team B Regular Season Defensive Rating]]

Djoker is saying playing against a GOAT level defense [say a team at -8 Rel Def RTG] and producing a +7 rORTG [Say the Defense is 100 Defensive Rating and you produce a 107 ORTG] is the same as playing against a bad defense [say a team with +3 Rel Def RTG] and producing a +7 rORTG [Say the Defense is 110 Defensive Rating and you produce a 117 ORTG].

[CodeBreaker]

I was looking at the relative offensive rating (rORtg) in playoff series between six players we often discuss here on the PC board and the rORtgs spearheaded by each.

In this chart below, the squares are LeBron, the red circles are Jordan, the purple star is Magic, the yellow X is Curry, the green triangles are Nash, and the blue diamond is Jokic.



There have been 81 playoff series between these six players that have produced a rORtg of +8 or greater.

LeBron: 22
Jordan: 18
Magic: 16
Nash and Curry: 11
Jokic: 3

There have been 25 playoff series of a rORtg of +12 or greater:

LeBron: 8
Magic: 6
Jordan: 5
Nash: 4
Curry: 2

There have been 15 playoff series of a rORtg of +15 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 4
Jordan: 3
Nash: 3
Curry: 1

There have been 7 playoff series of a rORtg of +18 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 1
Nash: 1
Curry: 1

There have been 5 playoff series of rORtg of +20 or greater:

LeBron: 3
Magic: 1
Nash: 1

Very interesting! With all obvious "it's a team game" caveats, impressive feats by the guys with big numbers here.

Figure it makes sense to consider this in terms of ratios too so for example:

LeBron played in 54 series, and his team had >8 rORtg 22 times. 40.7%
Jordan played in 37 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 18 times. 48.6%
Magic played in 40 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 16 times. 40.0%
Nash played in 23 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 47.8%
Curry played in 28 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 39.3%
Jokic played in 14 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 3 times. 21.4%

Obviously the last of these looks very different than the others.

I do think it would be interesting to see how other stack up with Jokic only through Jokic's current age. Obviously with someone like Magic his stats are largely going to look the same, but I'd expect some of the others come down to earth at least a bit.

Only Jokic here has not played with another all-time great

[Colbinii]

I was looking at the relative offensive rating (rORtg) in playoff series between six players we often discuss here on the PC board and the rORtgs spearheaded by each.

In this chart below, the squares are LeBron, the red circles are Jordan, the purple star is Magic, the yellow X is Curry, the green triangles are Nash, and the blue diamond is Jokic.



There have been 81 playoff series between these six players that have produced a rORtg of +8 or greater.

LeBron: 22
Jordan: 18
Magic: 16
Nash and Curry: 11
Jokic: 3

There have been 25 playoff series of a rORtg of +12 or greater:

LeBron: 8
Magic: 6
Jordan: 5
Nash: 4
Curry: 2

There have been 15 playoff series of a rORtg of +15 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 4
Jordan: 3
Nash: 3
Curry: 1

There have been 7 playoff series of a rORtg of +18 or greater:

LeBron: 4
Magic: 1
Nash: 1
Curry: 1

There have been 5 playoff series of rORtg of +20 or greater:

LeBron: 3
Magic: 1
Nash: 1

Very interesting! With all obvious "it's a team game" caveats, impressive feats by the guys with big numbers here.

Figure it makes sense to consider this in terms of ratios too so for example:

LeBron played in 54 series, and his team had >8 rORtg 22 times. 40.7%
Jordan played in 37 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 18 times. 48.6%
Magic played in 40 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 16 times. 40.0%
Nash played in 23 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 47.8%
Curry played in 28 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 11 times. 39.3%
Jokic played in 14 series, and his team had >8 rOrtg 3 times. 21.4%

Obviously the last of these looks very different than the others.

I do think it would be interesting to see how other stack up with Jokic only through Jokic's current age. Obviously with someone like Magic his stats are largely going to look the same, but I'd expect some of the others come down to earth at least a bit.

Only Jokic here has not played with another all-time great

Murray 2023 Post-Season: 4.1 OBPM, 28% USG, 29.8 Points/100

Wade 2012 Post-Season: 3.9 OBPM, 30% USG, 31.6 Points/100
Wade 2013 Post-Season: 2.6 OBPM, 25% USG, 24.5 Points/100

[Djoker]

Woah, hold on here. I think there is something very important regarding DRTG and rORTG.

What is more impressive, a +10 rORTG against a good defense or a +10 rORTG against a bad defense?

They are equally impressive. rORtg as calculated is relative to opponent DRtg. There's expectation that a team's ORtg will drop against good defenses but not their rORtg.

I disagree. A defense isn't simply a number.

A good defense will have better counters, better players and better scheme. A bad defense will have more holes, more weaknesses, worse players, and be easier to exploit.

It isn't as simple as saying rORTG = Goodness, without taking into account opponent faced.

Being able to produce a +10 rORTG against a GOAT level defense is far more impressive than destroying the 18th ranked defense in a random season by +10 rORTG.

Those better counters, players and schemes are already factored into that team's DRtg. It's the reason they are successful on defense to begin with.

It's not easy putting up a +10 rORtg against a bad defense. That team already makes it easy to score on them. How much easier can it get? You start to hit the offensive ceiling at some point.

[Colbinii]

They are equally impressive. rORtg as calculated is relative to opponent DRtg. There's expectation that a team's ORtg will drop against good defenses but not their rORtg.

I disagree. A defense isn't simply a number.

A good defense will have better counters, better players and better scheme. A bad defense will have more holes, more weaknesses, worse players, and be easier to exploit.

It isn't as simple as saying rORTG = Goodness, without taking into account opponent faced.

Being able to produce a +10 rORTG against a GOAT level defense is far more impressive than destroying the 18th ranked defense in a random season by +10 rORTG.

Those better counters, players and schemes are already factored into that team's DRtg. It's the reason they are successful on defense to begin with.

It's not easy putting up a +10 rORtg against a bad defense. That team already makes it easy to score on them. How much easier can it get? You start to hit the offensive ceiling at some point.

Good Point.

LeBron hit that 15 times from 2009-2018. That's 15/37 series played.

Jokic has never hit +10 rORTG in a playoff series. That's 0/14.

2011 is the only season LeBron didn't have at least 1 playoff series +10 rORTG or higher, peaking at +7.9 rORTG against the 4.83 SRS, 100.3 Drtg Boston Celtics.

[Djoker]

I disagree. A defense isn't simply a number.

A good defense will have better counters, better players and better scheme. A bad defense will have more holes, more weaknesses, worse players, and be easier to exploit.

It isn't as simple as saying rORTG = Goodness, without taking into account opponent faced.

Being able to produce a +10 rORTG against a GOAT level defense is far more impressive than destroying the 18th ranked defense in a random season by +10 rORTG.

Those better counters, players and schemes are already factored into that team's DRtg. It's the reason they are successful on defense to begin with.

It's not easy putting up a +10 rORtg against a bad defense. That team already makes it easy to score on them. How much easier can it get? You start to hit the offensive ceiling at some point.

Good Point.

LeBron hit that 15 times from 2009-2018. That's 15/37 series played.

Jokic has never hit +10 rORTG in a playoff series. That's 0/14.

2011 is the only season LeBron didn't have at least 1 playoff series +10 rORTG or higher, peaking at +7.9 rORTG against the 4.83 SRS, 100.3 Drtg Boston Celtics.

Like I said in the other thread, Jokic doesn't yet belong in the offensive GOAT discussion. His body of work is just too small although he is hampered by having bad/injured supporting casts so comparing him to the others in this thread is hardly a fair exercise. All in all I'd rather exclude him from these comparisons.

[Colbinii]

Those better counters, players and schemes are already factored into that team's DRtg. It's the reason they are successful on defense to begin with.

It's not easy putting up a +10 rORtg against a bad defense. That team already makes it easy to score on them. How much easier can it get? You start to hit the offensive ceiling at some point.

Good Point.

LeBron hit that 15 times from 2009-2018. That's 15/37 series played.

Jokic has never hit +10 rORTG in a playoff series. That's 0/14.

2011 is the only season LeBron didn't have at least 1 playoff series +10 rORTG or higher, peaking at +7.9 rORTG against the 4.83 SRS, 100.3 Drtg Boston Celtics.

Like I said in the other thread, Jokic doesn't yet belong in the offensive GOAT discussion. His body of work is just too small although he is hampered by having bad/injured supporting casts so comparing him to the others in this thread is hardly a fair exercise. All in all I'd rather exclude him from these comparisons.

Eh, many players have had injuries to their supporting cast.

LeBron had injuries to his cast in 2013, 2014 and 2015 [2015 ECF and Finals notably]. Yet in all of those post-seasons he reached +10 rORTG.

edit: I may be getting you and lessthanjake confused. One of you said Jokic's 2023 run was better than anything LeBron has done. If it wasn't you I apologize.

[Djoker]

Good Point.

LeBron hit that 15 times from 2009-2018. That's 15/37 series played.

Jokic has never hit +10 rORTG in a playoff series. That's 0/14.

2011 is the only season LeBron didn't have at least 1 playoff series +10 rORTG or higher, peaking at +7.9 rORTG against the 4.83 SRS, 100.3 Drtg Boston Celtics.

Like I said in the other thread, Jokic doesn't yet belong in the offensive GOAT discussion. His body of work is just too small although he is hampered by having bad/injured supporting casts so comparing him to the others in this thread is hardly a fair exercise. All in all I'd rather exclude him from these comparisons.

Eh, many players have had injuries to their supporting cast.

LeBron had injuries to his cast in 2013, 2014 and 2015 [2015 ECF and Finals notably]. Yet in all of those post-seasons he reached +10 rORTG.

Come on. It's not the same. Jokic has never played with another All-NBA player. And I realize Murray was a good playoff performer in 2020 and 2023 but the guy never even made an all-star game.

EDIT: I definitely never said that.

[Colbinii]

Like I said in the other thread, Jokic doesn't yet belong in the offensive GOAT discussion. His body of work is just too small although he is hampered by having bad/injured supporting casts so comparing him to the others in this thread is hardly a fair exercise. All in all I'd rather exclude him from these comparisons.

Eh, many players have had injuries to their supporting cast.

LeBron had injuries to his cast in 2013, 2014 and 2015 [2015 ECF and Finals notably]. Yet in all of those post-seasons he reached +10 rORTG.

Come on. It's not the same. Jokic has never played with another All-NBA player. And I realize Murray was a good playoff performer in 2020 and 2023 but the guy never even made an all-star game.

Oh so popularity amongst NBA fans is more important than the actual level of play?

I just care about level of play my friend