Retro Player of the Year 1995-96 UPDATE — Michael Jordan

[Djoker]

VOTING POST

POY

1. Michael Jordan - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. MVP. Finals MVP. Comes back with a vengeance and leads a top 3 GOAT team to a title while being the best individual player. Sure he shoots poorly after taking a 3-0 lead in the Finals but that is the definition of nitpicking. Averaged 30.4/6.6/4.3 on 58.2 %TS (+4.0 rTS) in the RS then 30.7/4.9/4.1 on 56.4 %TS (+3.8 rTS) in the PS.

2. David Robinson - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Fantastic RS again followed by a subpar PS. Still, push comes to shove, the player with the most impact this year outside of MJ was probably Robinson. Despite his PS offensive troubles, he still deserves this spot because of his giant defensive imprint. Averaged 25.0/12.2/3.0 on 58.9 %TS (+4.7 rTS) in the RS then 23.6/10.1/2.4 on 56.9 %TS (+2.3 rTS) in the PS.

3. Penny Hardaway - 1st Team All-NBA. The Magic had a historic offense this year and hardly missed a beat in games Shaq missed still playing at roughly a 60-win pace. Penny combined scoring and passing very well and was a big part of the Magic offensive success. Averaged 21.7/4.3/7.1 on 60.5 %TS (+6.3 rTS) in the RS then 23.3/4.7/6.0 on 55.7 %TS (+2.3 rTS) in the PS.

4. Shaquille O'Neal - 3rd Team All-NBA. Shaq missed a bunch of RS games but on a per game basis, his impact was tremendous and likely higher than Penny's. He anchored the team on both ends on the floor (though how much success he had on D is debatable) and commanded so much attention with his gravity making it easier for everyone on the Magic to shine getting open jumpers. Averaged 26.6/11.0/2.9 on 57.0 %TS (+2.8 rTS) in the RS then 25.8/10.0/4.6 on 57.5 %TS (+4.1 rTS) in the PS.

5. Karl Malone - 1st Team All-NBA. Led the Jazz to the WCF and although he didn't have a good Game 7 against Seattle, it's still one game and the Mailman did enough to make the ballot putting up his usually strong RS followed by a solid PS. Only solid because of pretty poor shooting % although it should be said that the offensive load he carried was astronomically high as Stockton started to fade and Utah was running offense more and more through Malone. Averaged 25.7/9.8/4.2 on 57.5 %TS (+2.9 rTS) in the RS then 26.5/10.3/4.4 on 49.8 %TS (-2.2 rTS) in the PS.

HM:

Scottie Pippen - 1st Team All-NBA. 1st Team All-Defense. Injury late in the RS that carried into the PS.

Hakeem Olajuwon - 2nd Team All-NBA. 2nd Team All-Defense. Horrific series against Seattle.

OPOY

1. Michael Jordan - Amazing scorer and good playmaker. Anchored a historic team on offense.

2. Penny Hardaway - Good combo of scoring and playmaking. Anchored a great offense even in Shaq's absence.

3. Shaquille O'Neal - If not for missed games, he'd be 2nd here.

DPOY

1. David Robinson - Just like in 1995, Robinson is better on D than Hakeem at this stage of their careers. Hakeem lost some motor.

2. Hakeem Olajuwon

3. Dennis Rodman - He was huge for the Bulls especially in the PS. The Bulls were kind of depleted in the Finals with all the injuries to Pippen/Kukoc/Harper but Rodman helped get them over the finish line with relentless rebounding and defense.

[OhayoKD]

Voting Post

1. Micheal Jordan

This is pretty clear for me.

Played poorly enough that a historic collapse was on the board in the finals after leading a record-breaking regular-season and an impressive win(for different reasons) against a strong conference opponent. Pretty similar to one of the worst beats in the story of today's flag-bearer for smalls, though there's no injury as excuse.

Fortunately for Jordan, Lebron isn't in the league yet.

Olajuwon does fine enough in the regular-season and the first round but has his 2011 vs the Sonics. Shaq has a theoretical argument other voters have alluded to but he is swept again with a good team that was able to win 60 with his teammate doing the heavy lifting. Robinson can be argued as the best regular-season player but he comes up small in the postseason once more.

Jordan wasn't invincible, this projecting highlighting that perhaps more than any other; but more than anyone else in the league, he delivered. And when he couldn't, Rodman carried the slack, a player Robinson failed to jive with a season before.

All considered a unanimous ballot would be appropriate in my opinion. He won't get it, but I think on the team that won the most games of any team ever in a season, where no one was really better outside of abstract theory or a lense disregarding the biggest games, Jordan has earned a little bit of invincibility, even with a cadre of elite armorers shoring up the parts which weren't.

2. David Robinson

The rest is not so easy. Robinson might be the most valuable regular season player of the decade. But he goes for 19 points on mediocre efficiency while leading another defensive collapse against Malone. Still I'm skeptical Malone, shooting even worse, was notably better. He won but winning does not grantee higher placement for my votes.


3. Penny Hardaway

Stole mvp votes from a 72-win season winning 60 including a strong stretch without Shaq (replicated in 97). Shaq was better vs the Bulls but Orlando did not do nearly enough for that to move me. For the rest of the year I have Penny and so he will be the Magic representative on my ballot.

4. Hakeem Olajuwon

Theoretically i'd take him second if I ran 100 replays of the same season. But I only have the season he actually played and with him not being a spectacular regular-season force, and him also collapsing in 96, I can't justify placing him higher. A pretty underwhelming three-peat attempt all considered. Pippen led a more serious charge for 4. He'll have one last run at the top next year, but for 1996 I think 4th is plenty high.

5. Scottie Pippen

He may end up as the only non-big to win a DPOY in this project. His offense is diminished but on a team that was as good defensively in the postseason as it was offensively en route to immortality, I think a 5th place ballot for the best defender on the greatest 70+ win team ever is perfectly warranted, injuries and all.

OPOY

1. Micheal Jordan
2. Penny Hardaway
3. Shaq

DPOY

1. Pippen
2. Ewing
3. Robinson

[B-Mitch 30]

Offensive Player of the Year

1. Michael Jordan

In addition to his absurd regular season where the Bulls set the NBA record for wins, MJ had a great postseason, at least until game four of the Finals. Despite the Supersonics threatening to make the series competitive, the truth was that the Bulls were probably going to win as soon as they went up 3 to 0 against Seattle.

2. Penny Hardaway

If it weren’t for Rodman absolutely cleaning the glass for the Bulls, the Magic would probably have the best offense this season. Penny achieved this with the team despite Shaq missing nearly half the season, and in the playoffs the Magic made it to the Conference Finals, before losing to Chicago.

3. Vlade Divac

The Lakers this year were in the top 12 of eFG, turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding. They were merely below average at free throws per field goal attempt, but no other offense was quite as well rounded as them. Of the team’s starters who played in more than 70 games, Vlade was the Lakers 2nd best passer and offensive rebounder, and an efficient double digit scorer for them. Their four game loss in the first round does reflect a bit poorly on him, but he was one or two missed field goals away from having good efficiency numbers.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Patrick Ewing

The Knicks were no longer the juggernaut they had been over the last four seasons, but their defense was still one of the best in the league. They were 3rd in eFG, 14th in turnover percentage, 7th in defensive rebounding percentage, and 19th in fouls per field goal attempt. As per usual, Ewing led the team in blocks and rebounds, still clearly being the best player on the team.

2. Dale Davis

The Pacers were similarly well rounded defensively like the Knicks, albeit not as high in any of the aforementioned stat categories. Like Ewing, Davis led the Pacers in defensive rebounds and blocked shots, clearly providing good impact.

3. Alonzo Mourning

A case can definitely be made that Mourning was already better than Ewing, and per possession, certainly better than Davis, but I’m penalizing him for missing 12 games, and the Heat ranking nearly dead last in fouls per field goal attempt.

Player of the Year

1. Michael Jordan

The Bulls had the best offensive and defensive ratings in the NBA this season, and regardless of how you feel about MJ’s defense, he was clearly doing something right on that end. It’s very hard to argue with setting the record for regular season wins by a championship team.

2. Penny Hardaway

The Magic were hardly a defensive juggernaut, but they were still capable in that regard, and Penny probably came as close as he ever would to moving out of Shaq’s shadow this year.

3. David Robinson

The Spurs were probably the most balanced offensive and defensive team this season besides the Bulls, and the Admiral dominated in both categories, having another decent playoff run.

4. Alonzo Mourning

Similar to Robinson, Mourning was great on offense and defense, though his passing was far worse. Still, he was clearly the only reason the Heat made it to the postseason this year.

5. Patrick Ewing

Ewing’s efficiency really suffered this season, but he was still a 22.5 point per game scorer, as well as being the best defensive player in the NBA.

[capfan33]

Dpoy
1. Pippen- anchored the #1 defense in the league with a dominant playoff run, historic play for a wing.

2. Ewing- Still an excellent albeit declined defender who gave the Bulls all they could handle one last time.

3. Robinson- was pretty easily the best defender in the regular season, and even with his playoff issues I find it difficult to leave him off the ballot entirely. If Hakeem had been marginally better in the playoffs he would have a great case.


1. MJ- Very mediocre finals but with no compelling alternative he has to be #1.

2. Not really a huge fan of any of the options, will go with Malone largely because I can’t vote DRob in good conscious with his horrendous postseason play and I’m not quite sold on Penny being #2.

3. Penny- His play with Shaq out was an eye opener for me as I hadn’t been aware of how good he was independent of Shaq. Has a very good argument for #2 but I just can’t quite get there yet.

4. Robinson- historic regular season ofc, playoff misery. I value the playoffs too much to put him higher.

5. Payton- Think someone from the very competitive finalists needs to be here, and ultimately Payton edges out Kemp for me as the offensive engine and elite (albeit slightly overrated) defender.

[ShaqAttac]

MJ
72 Wins and MVP n Chip. Also sweep shaq n penny. Scores lots and good d. Choke a bit in the finals.

PENNY

win 60 games with half a season of shaq and makes conference finals. Does get swept tho.

EWING
Steals game from GOAT team and makes Bulls O drop. great D and good O.

DROB
Great WOWY but chokes in the POs. Still p good impact.

PIPPEN
Helped MJ with a 72 win team and chip.. Great D good O.

[LA Bird]

Player of the Year
1. Michael Jordan
2. Karl Malone
3. David Robinson
4. Penny Hardaway
5. Scottie Pippen

Late already so I'll keep this short.

Jordan: Back to #1. Best scorer, best impact numbers, best team. Not as good as before but his competition has fallen off more.
Malone: Another consistent season. Great regular season, completely outplays Robinson in playoffs (again), close 7 game loss to Sonics where Stockton was nowhere to be found.
Robinson: Smaller RS advantage and with a worse loss than the famous Rockets series last year, he goes below Malone like 94.
Penny: Great performance as #1 with Shaq missing 1/3 of season but at the same time, +3 isn't that incredible. Swept by Bulls with ease and best game came in a 40 point blowout (21/4/5 on 47% TS in rest of series). Healthy Shaq would probably rank higher.
Pippen: Best defender on a #1 defense. Poor scoring in the playoffs but great in every other aspect.

[Special_Puppy]

Does MJ have any serious challengers for the next 3 years?

[AEnigma]

close 7 game loss to Sonics where Stockton was nowhere to be found.

Stockton showed up for the game 7; just not for the prior three losses. I heard some talk that he was sick, although not sure that can hold up as an excuse for five games

[One_and_Done]

Does MJ have any serious challengers for the next 3 years?

Duncan & Shaq.

[trelos6]

Does MJ have any serious challengers for the next 3 years?

Yes. Not sold on him at 1 for ‘98. There are a number of good challengers.

[OhayoKD]

Does MJ have any serious challengers for the next 3 years?

Yes. Not sold on him at 1 for ‘98. There are a number of good challengers.

You shouldn't be sold on him at 1 for 97 either. Rockets go at a 64-win pace when Barkley and Hakeem play and then Hakeem is much better vs the Utah Jazz in the playoffs arguably outplaying MJ on both ends (shoots way better, and per lebronny's trackins is creating more too) despite facing significantly more defensive attention and a tougher positional matchup.

Hakeem was, again, the best player in the playoffs and it probably wasn't close.

[LA Bird]

Does MJ have any serious challengers for the next 3 years?

Yes. Not sold on him at 1 for ‘98. There are a number of good challengers.

You shouldn't be sold on him at 1 for 97 either. Rockets go at a 64-win pace when Barkley and Hakeem play and then Hakeem is much better vs the Utah Jazz in the playoffs arguably outplaying MJ on both ends (shoots way better, and per lebronny's trackins is creating more too) despite facing significantly more defensive attention and a tougher positional matchup.

Hakeem was, again, the best player in the playoffs and it probably wasn't close.

Considering the Rockets went 45 win pace with Hakeem but no Barkley, that 64 win with both is more of an argument for Barkley instead. Hakeem played better in his Jazz series than Jordan did but the same could be said for Penny in his Heat series too.

[OhayoKD]

Yes. Not sold on him at 1 for ‘98. There are a number of good challengers.

You shouldn't be sold on him at 1 for 97 either. Rockets go at a 64-win pace when Barkley and Hakeem play and then Hakeem is much better vs the Utah Jazz in the playoffs arguably outplaying MJ on both ends (shoots way better, and per lebronny's trackins is creating more too) despite facing significantly more defensive attention and a tougher positional matchup.

Hakeem was, again, the best player in the playoffs and it probably wasn't close.

Considering the Rockets went 45 win pace with Hakeem but no Barkley, that 64 win with both is more of an argument for Barkley instead.

I do not consider Hakeem going 45-win with what was generally a terrible team without him pre-barkley --without barkley-- as a deterrent to his case here. It does reflect well on Barkley's impact but there's no comparison to Hakeem on that front. And it's Hakeem ultimately who elevates in the playoffs with higher assists, less tos, and an 8 point true-shootng spike along with hey i'm still a top 3 rim protector who also contributes significantly on the perimiter and towards forcing turnovers while also doing most of the boxing out of my team for rebounds (yes that includes Barkley). By Lebronny's tracking he also averaged 14 creations a game vs the Jazz. I've said before, I feel bigs may get some low-quality creations in those countings, but Hakeem also has like the 2nd most defensive draw of anyone in the league at this point besides Shaq and on tape for those playoffs(not hard-tracking so weigh accordingly) he's taking out 3 or more defenders out more frequently than anyone else so far.

Hakeem was excellent all postseason and uniquely so. I don't know how everyone wants to weigh that against whatever they were expecting out of the Rockets without charles barkley or with charles barkley vs what the jazz and bulls did in the regular-season, but for me that's a strong POY case. 60+ wins with your co-star, 45 wins without is enough for me to consider the best playoff player as the player of the year.

Hakeem played better in his Jazz series than Jordan did but the same could be said for Penny in his Heat series too

I'm certainly open to placing Penny highly if someone makes the case. And I would say Jordan getting outplayed by not just one, but two players against the teams they lost to (i will have to look at penny closer to come to a conclusion there) would make "well he won" pretty meaningless to me.

And that is setting aside I'm pretty confident Hakeem was flat better for the playoffs as a whole

[Djoker]

Where are you getting 64-win pace with Hakeem and Barkley? In the 49 games both played, the 1997 Rockets had a +5.93 MOV which works out to 57.7 Pythagorean Wins. Ben Taylor has them with a +5.7 SRS which is 57 PW when the whole star trio of Hakeem, Barkley and Drexler played. Either way it's not close to what you cited. In 4 games without Hakeem, the Rockets played with a +2.25 MOV which is 47.7 PW. Sure it's super small off sample but you usually stick with it and WOWY data isn't really telling us that Hakeem is an impact giant. Hakeem also doesn't look impressive by any impact stats for 1997 and this time we have a full sample of PBP data so those dubious excuses don't fly. He is 29th in RAPM, 30th in ESPN RPM, 29th in RAPTOR etc.

As for the PS, Hakeem was very mediocre in the first two rounds offensively scoring ~20 ppg. Not the kind of volume you expect from an offensive superstar. And I wouldn't just write off Jordan's performance against Utah or say that Hakeem was better. MJ had two poor scoring games which the Bulls lost. In the four wins, He averaged 36.5/8.8/6.5 on +2.3 rTS with just 2.3 turnovers per game. Offensively, there is a huge gap between Jordan and Hakeem all season long. Oh and MJ happens to be not just in front of Hakeem but 1st in RAPM, RPM, RAPTOR for the season too.

With Robinson out injured and Malone scoring inefficiently (though with a huge offensive load), Hakeem does have a case for #2 next season nonetheless. Could just as easily be #4 behind MJ, Malone, and Shaq though.

[OhayoKD]

Where are you getting 64-win pace with Hakeem and Barkley?

From one of the Fatal9 posts quoted. They were using record not SRS I think. Seems they got "lucky", or were "clutch".

Sure it's super small off sample but you usually stick with it and WOWY data isn't really telling us that Hakeem is an impact giant.

Sure, in 97 it says that. In 96 over a much larger sample of 10 games the Rockets go 1-9 and are -8 which would indeed paint Hakeem as an impact monster and a MVPish regular-season player if we combine the two samples. I don't know what the net-rating for the Barkley-less games were but at 45-wins that would be a great regular-season.

And then Hakeem starts shooting 8 points better in the postseason, increases his assists lowers his turnover economy and for my money ramps up his defense too. If Jordan can get POY votes making 25-win teams into 50 or 45-win ones over prime Magic, then I don't see why Hakeem, with clearer elevation, facing a much weaker competition wouldn't merit POY consideration here.

Jordan's true-shooting dropped by 4-points despite his volume also dropping by 2 ontop of a slightly higher tov average. Seems like there's reason to believe Jordan got significantly worse while Hakeem got alot better.

As for the PS, Hakeem was very mediocre in the first two rounds offensively scoring ~20 ppg.

On 60% true shooting, facing significantly more defensive attention. How dare he notreplicate Jordan chucking up way more shots on 50% true shooting (worse efficiency than any of his teammates).

Hakeem was also carrying a defensive unit with Charles Barkley as the secondary rim-protector with much better defense than Jordan has ever played in his life. He was better the first two rounds. And better in the conference finals. Perhaps if he had a cast that went on a pace of 53 pythagorean wins and 45 actual wins without him or a dennis rodman analog (with Pippen filing a trade request), he would have also had the opportunity to dominate Jordan in the finals. But I'm pretty happy just rewarding the player who plays better as opposed to the one whose teammates play better.

Hakeem vs MJ on offense is more serious than Hakeem vs MJ overall for that postseason.

Oh and MJ happens to be not just in front of Hakeem but 1st in RAPM,

I don't doubt he's ahead but name your source?

First sourced set I found comes from "A Screaming Comes Across the Court" on google has MJ 2nd
https://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2013/10/introducing-1990s-rapm.html?m=1

RPM, RAPTOR for the season too.

And Hakeem is ahead in IBM's metric. If you are not going to justify the relevance of the inputs, I am not going to care about the outputs.

[LA Bird]

Where are you getting 64-win pace with Hakeem and Barkley?

I believe OhayoKD is just using W/L adjusted to 82 games.

Hakeem + Barkley: 64 win pace (38-11)
Hakeem - Barkley: 45 win pace (16-13)
Barkley - Hakeem: 62 win pace (3-1)

If we include Drexler too into the WOWY combinations,

Big 3 together: 66 win pace (32-8)
Minus Hakeem: 62 win pace (3-1)
Minus Drexler: 55 win pace (6-3)
Minus Barkley: 50 win pace (11-7)
Hakeem only: 37 win pace (5-6)

None of this is particularly good evidence for Hakeem's impact this regular season though IMO.

[OhayoKD]

Where are you getting 64-win pace with Hakeem and Barkley?

I believe OhayoKD is just using W/L adjusted to 82 games.

Hakeem + Barkley: 64 win pace (38-11)
Hakeem - Barkley: 45 win pace (16-13)
Barkley - Hakeem: 62 win pace (3-1)

If we include Drexler too into the WOWY combinations,

Big 3 together: 66 win pace (32-8)
Minus Hakeem: 62 win pace (3-1)
Minus Drexler: 55 win pace (6-3)
Minus Barkley: 50 win pace (11-7)
Hakeem only: 37 win pace (5-6)

None of this is particularly good evidence for Hakeem's impact this regular season though IMO.

Let's extend this

They were

1-9 and -8 in without Hakeem in 1996 and 3-7 and -4.4 without him in 1995.

I don't know how to get net-ratings for multiple players missing or being included but for 95-97 that means, by record, Houston played at a 23-win pace. Houston going 45-wins with no Barkley seems like good rs impact to me. Not going to use the big three or hakeem/barkley samples for obvious reasons.

[lessthanjake]

Where are you getting 64-win pace with Hakeem and Barkley?

I believe OhayoKD is just using W/L adjusted to 82 games.

Hakeem + Barkley: 64 win pace (38-11)
Hakeem - Barkley: 45 win pace (16-13)
Barkley - Hakeem: 62 win pace (3-1)

If we include Drexler too into the WOWY combinations,

Big 3 together: 66 win pace (32-8)
Minus Hakeem: 62 win pace (3-1)
Minus Drexler: 55 win pace (6-3)
Minus Barkley: 50 win pace (11-7)
Hakeem only: 37 win pace (5-6)

None of this is particularly good evidence for Hakeem's impact this regular season though IMO.

Let's extend this

They were

1-9 and -8 in without Hakeem in 1996 and 3-7 and -4.4 without him in 1995.

I don't know how to get net-ratings for multiple players missing or being included but for 95-97 that means, by record, Houston played at a 23-win pace. Houston going 45-wins with no Barkley seems like good rs impact to me. Not going to use the big three or hakeem/barkley samples for obvious reasons.

Why would you ever “extend” the WOWY analysis here to the games Hakeem missed in 1995-96? Out of the 12 players on the 1996-97 Rockets that played the most minutes besides Hakeem, only 3 of those players even played a single minute for the Rockets in the 10 games that Hakeem missed in 1995-1996. Those were Drexler, Elie, and Sam Mack. And Drexler and Elie both barely played in that span themselves, with Drexler playing a grand total of 92 minutes and Elie playing 74. The only guy that actually played significant minutes on the Rockets during the 10-game span Hakeem missed in 1995-1996 was Sam Mack (who was averaging almost twice as many minutes in that 1995-1996 span than he did in 1996-1997, because of how short-handed the Rockets were in that 1995-1996 span). And that’s not even mentioning that many of the top guys that were on the 1995-1996 Rockets but not on the 1996-1997 Rockets missed a lot of time in that 1995-1996 span, including Horry missing a few games, Cassell barely playing, etc. They were super short-handed in those games and just not at all similar to the 1996-1997 team.

Running WOWY numbers comparing the 1996-1997 Rockets to the 10 games Hakeem missed in 1995-1996 is genuinely just completely garbage data. It was not even a remotely similar team. I understand you want to add more data to the “off” sample, especially since the 1996-1997 “off” sample doesn’t support the conclusion you want to reach, but sometimes adding more WOWY data is just adding garbage data, and this is one of those times.

[OhayoKD]

I believe OhayoKD is just using W/L adjusted to 82 games.

Hakeem + Barkley: 64 win pace (38-11)
Hakeem - Barkley: 45 win pace (16-13)
Barkley - Hakeem: 62 win pace (3-1)

If we include Drexler too into the WOWY combinations,

Big 3 together: 66 win pace (32-8)
Minus Hakeem: 62 win pace (3-1)
Minus Drexler: 55 win pace (6-3)
Minus Barkley: 50 win pace (11-7)
Hakeem only: 37 win pace (5-6)

None of this is particularly good evidence for Hakeem's impact this regular season though IMO.

Let's extend this

They were

1-9 and -8 in without Hakeem in 1996 and 3-7 and -4.4 without him in 1995.

I don't know how to get net-ratings for multiple players missing or being included but for 95-97 that means, by record, Houston played at a 23-win pace. Houston going 45-wins with no Barkley seems like good rs impact to me. Not going to use the big three or hakeem/barkley samples for obvious reasons.

Why would you ever “extend” the WOWY analysis here to the games Hakeem missed in 1995-96?

Same reason I extended it for games Hakeem missed in 91 when looking at 93 Hakeem. (that extension hurt him).

Out of the 12 players on the 1996-97 Rockets that played the most minutes besides Hakeem, only 3 of those players even played a single minute for the Rockets in the 10 games that Hakeem missed in 1995-1996. Those were Drexler, Elie, and Sam Mack. And Drexler and Elie both barely played in that span themselves, with Drexler playing a grand total of 92 minutes and Elie playing 74. The only guy that actually played significant minutes on the Rockets during the 10-game span Hakeem missed in 1995-1996 was Sam Mack (who was averaging almost twice as many minutes in that 1995-1996 span than he did in 1996-1997, because of how short-handed the Rockets were in that 1995-1996 span). And that’s not even mentioning that many of the top guys that were on the 1995-1996 Rockets but not on the 1996-1997 Rockets missed a lot of time in that 1995-1996 span, including Horry missing a few games, Cassell barely playing, etc. They were super short-handed in those games and just not at all similar to the 1996-1997 team.

Interesting. I'd agree that's not worth counting then. Seems 1999 Bulls-ish. I'm confused how drexler has 92 minutes though.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/rockets-record-with-drexler-and-without-hakeem-in-1995
Statmuse says Drexler played 1 game without him in 96

statmuse does say Drexler played 9 of the 10 games missed in 95 though I guess it would be nice if someone could fact check that. Shaving off a loss improves them to -3.4 and 3-6

[Djoker]

Where are you getting 64-win pace with Hakeem and Barkley?

From one of the Fatal9 posts quoted. They were using record not SRS I think. Seems they got "lucky", or were "clutch".

Yes they were lucky. 57-win pace with a big three is not impressive whatsoever. That is context surrounding Hakeem and the Rockets in 1997. They had big expectations and underachieved.

Sure it's super small off sample but you usually stick with it and WOWY data isn't really telling us that Hakeem is an impact giant.

Sure, in 97 it says that. In 96 over a much larger sample of 10 games the Rockets go 1-9 and are -8 which would indeed paint Hakeem as an impact monster and a MVPish regular-season player if we combine the two samples. I don't know what the net-rating for the Barkley-less games were but at 45-wins that would be a great regular-season.

1996 Hakeem was better in the RS than 1997 Hakeem. And as Jake said, the rosters were totally different.

And then Hakeem starts shooting 8 points better in the postseason, increases his assists lowers his turnover economy and for my money ramps up his defense too. If Jordan can get POY votes making 25-win teams into 50 or 45-win ones over prime Magic, then I don't see why Hakeem, with clearer elevation, facing a much weaker competition wouldn't merit POY consideration here

Because Jordan elevated the 1988 and 1989 Bulls beyond what was expected while Hakeem elevated the 1997 Rockets less than what was expected. Jordan in those years didn't have two all-stars on his team. Hakeem did.

Jordan's true-shooting dropped by 4-points despite his volume also dropping by 2 ontop of a slightly higher tov average. Seems like there's reason to believe Jordan got significantly worse while Hakeem got alot better.

Jordan's volume didn't drop 2 points. He went from averaging 29.6 ppg in the RS to 31.1 ppg in the PS so his volume actually went up. The turnovers did go up in the PS from 2.0 to 2.7 but MJ's turnovers were still insanely low for his offensive load and factor into why he was overall a very efficient offensive player. It's very odd to bring up turnovers with MJ.

Also worth noting that MJ faced a very strong slate of defenses in the 1997 PS which can explain a 4-point efficiency drop.

Bullets: -1.8 rDRtg
Hawks: -4.4 rDRtg
Heat: -6.1 rDRtg
Jazz: -2.7 rDRtg

Also Hakeem didn't elevate his D in the PS at all. In fact, he probably dropped off on that end. In the RS, the Rockets were a -2.7 rDRtg team and in the PS a +0.3 rDRtg team.

As for the PS, Hakeem was very mediocre in the first two rounds offensively scoring ~20 ppg.

On 60% true shooting, facing significantly more defensive attention. How dare he notreplicate Jordan chucking up way more shots on 50% true shooting (worse efficiency than any of his teammates).

Hakeem was also carrying a defensive unit with Charles Barkley as the secondary rim-protector with much better defense than Jordan has ever played in his life. He was better the first two rounds. And better in the conference finals. Perhaps if he had a cast that went on a pace of 53 pythagorean wins and 45 actual wins without him or a dennis rodman analog (with Pippen filing a trade request), he would have also had the opportunity to dominate Jordan in the finals. But I'm pretty happy just rewarding the player who plays better as opposed to the one whose teammates play better.

Hakeem vs MJ on offense is more serious than Hakeem vs MJ overall for that postseason.

Hakeem never faced more defensive attention than Jordan. Get out of here with that. In the first two rounds, Barkley and Drexler were playing like all-stars.

20 ppg is very low volume. That's not offensive carrying LOL. Again he was a better individual defender than Jordan (bigs > guards) but the offensive gap is huge in favor of Jordan.

Oh and MJ happens to be not just in front of Hakeem but 1st in RAPM,

I don't doubt he's ahead but name your source?

First sourced set I found comes from "A Screaming Comes Across the Court" on google has MJ 2nd
https://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2013/10/introducing-1990s-rapm.html?m=1

RPM, RAPTOR for the season too.

And Hakeem is ahead in IBM's metric. If you are not going to justify the relevance of the inputs, I am not going to care about the outputs.

You not caring doesn't make the data magically not exist.

Here are the sources. For RAPTOR, you have to download the Excel file.

RPM: https://web.archive.org/web/20230320184333/http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/1997

RAPTOR: https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/tree/master/nba-raptor