Cavsfansince84 wrote:lessthanjake wrote:So I think we have a pretty similar situation to last year, but with some crucial differences.
LeBron is the best player in the NBA this year. But Kobe is one of the best few players and won the title while having a good playoffs. So Kobe’s case should be very hard to overcome, and the question is whether LeBron did it.
Only issue(s) here are that a. Kobe by bpm and vorp has his worst rs since 99(compared to 09 which was prob like a top 4 rs for him) b. the Lakers fall from 65 to 57 wins and c. despite placing 3rd in MVP voting he is only 15th in bpm and 10th in vorp and its not like he's one of those players where defense is compensating for box score. I'm guessing his rapm isn't that good either this year. In short, I think he coasted or declined in this rs and despite leading his team to a title this is not a replay of the previous season the way you painted it above. Kobe had a poor rs by his own standards that year.
I did address that in my post. As I said, I think Kobe dropped off in the 2010 RS compared to 2009, and his team did less well in the regular season probably partially as a result. The same is true of LeBron too, but Kobe’s and his team’s drop off was bigger so the regular season gap between the two was actually a bit bigger in 2010 than in 2009 IMO.
That said, it’s actually *not* the case that Kobe’s RAPM that year was weak. In TheBasketballDatabase’s one-year RAPM, Kobe was 7th in 2009 and 9th in 2010. In Engelmann’s PI RAPM, Kobe was 8th in 2009 and 6th in 2010. So basically, RAPM had Kobe holding steady in 2009 and 2010. This isn’t surprising, since Kobe actually had a very good on-off of +12.4 in the 2010 regular season. Of course, one-year RAPM is very noisy, but just wanted to note this since you mentioned your guess about RAPM. If we just looked at RAPM, I don’t know that we’d even assess Kobe to have dropped off at all from 2009 to 2010 in terms of regular season performance. I think when we add box data into our analysis and also look at team results, we start to think he did—which is why my previous post said I thought he dropped off. But it actually is at least ambiguous. I do think that you’re right that coasting had something to do with it, especially when his regular season the next year was better from a box perspective (and the team’s SRS was higher) despite him getting older. I think reasonable minds can differ on how much they let coasting after a title win mitigate a weaker RS, but it is probably a factor here.