Retro Player of the Year 2014-15

[LA Bird]

I've basically retired from the forum but I'll jump back in for this

1. LeBron James
2. Stephen Curry
3. Chris Paul
4. James Harden
5. Anthony Davis
HM: Draymond Green

Draymond was the biggest miss of the previous project IMO. A once in a generation defender who anchored the best regular season defense and an all time postseason defense en route to a title. Many talk about Curry boosting his impact numbers but the Warriors' postseason success being heavily defense based in Curry's minutes (+2.7 offense, -10.1 defense relative rating) suggests the opposite in their collinearity if anything. The case for Curry at 1 would have been easy to make if the Warriors were like a 05 Suns-esque playoffs offense but given Draymond played a far bigger role than we thought at the time, LeBron is #1 for me. Back then, I thought he was on the decline after the injured slow start to the season and poor shooting in the playoffs but I was proven wrong pretty quickly. Kyrie and Love in this and subsequent seasons have shown little impact without LeBron and that was before they were both out in the playoffs.

Paul vs Harden comes down to the hamstring injury really. Paul anchored the best regular season offense, had the highest raw on/off in the league (+21.9 vs Bron's +17.3 and Curry's +16.3 without garbage minutes), and led the Clippers to a +8.7 net without Griffin for the year. If not for the injury, the debate for him is with Curry for 2 not Harden for 3. Playoffs are still important though so let's take a closer look. Round 1: Clippers beat the defending champs Spurs who were peaking heading into the postseason (+13.5 net in last 25 games) while the Rockets faced the imploding Rondo Mavs. Paul averaged 23/5/8 on 63% TS in the best series win of his career and capped it off with a last second G7 winner over Duncan. Round 2: Clippers were on the verge of a series victory when Josh Smith and Corey Brewer randomly mounted an improbable comeback completely without Harden. For the game, the Rockets were -21 with Harden and +33 with him on the bench. Are we supposed to reward Harden for his team going on a lucky run without him? Yeah, Paul missed 2 games which might have cost them the series but Curry missed 6 playoffs games in both 2016 and 2018 and the only difference is his team managed to survive without him while Paul's didn't.

Davis would have likely been a comfortable top 5 lock at the time but his relatively disappointing career since has made me question if I overhyped him at the time because of his potential. But in the end, even if the later seasons didn't live up to the hype, Davis still put up the 2015 season that he did and it's hard to argue anyone else against him that year. Carried the Pelicans into the playoffs and played just as well as Harden did against the Warriors. He missed quite a few games but so did Westbrook and Draymond hadn't unlocked his playmaking yet.

[Djoker]

The 2015 (and 2016) Warriors to me had more defensive talent than offensive talent. Being better on D than on O to me isn't surprising and doesn't suggest that Draymond is more impactful than we thought before. I also believe Draymond took a pretty sizable leap in 2016. He wasn't as good in 2015.

Also don't find the whole "Curry declined in the postseason" narrative that OhayoKD is spewing particularly convincing.

Stephen Curry

RS: 23.7/4.6/7.7 on 63.8 %TS (+10.4 rTS) with 3.1 turnover
PS: 28.3/5.0/6.4 on 60.4 %TS (+7.7 rTS) with 3.9 turnovers

Lebron James

RS: 25.3/6.0/7.4 on 57.7 %TS (+4.3 rTS) with 3.9 turnovers
PS: 30.1/11.3/8.5 on 48.7 %TS (-3.4 rTS) with 4.1 turnovers

Curry scored 1.8 points/game less than Lebron in the playoffs but on 11.7% better raw efficiency and 11.1% better relative efficiency. I don't think that can be understated. We know Curry's gravity also wreaked havoc off the ball so even Lebron having an apparent playmaking edge from assists isn't really proof that he was a better playmaker overall. I just think offensively, there is a large gap between them in favour of Curry in both the RS and PS in 2015.

[OhayoKD]

Curry scored 1.8 points/game less than Lebron in the playoffs but on 11.7% better raw efficiency and 11.1% better relative efficiency. I don't think that can be understated. We know Curry's gravity also wreaked havoc off the ball so even Lebron having an apparent playmaking edge from assists isn't really proof that he was a better playmaker overall. I just think offensively, there is a large gap between them in favour of Curry in both the RS and PS in 2015.

Because Lebron James famously lacks gravity, and has no track-record of his impact and creation far outpacing his assist numbers:

Spoiler:

My tracking of Lebron Game 3 final 2012 ( tracking Offense only )

Watch on YouTube

;t=5616s

EDITED - SORRY GUYS, I edit my post bcs I made some mistake on DTOs/EDTOs ( I was counting if it happen in possession instead of how many defender was affected per possesion ) part due some misunderstanding on my part but I retrack everythings and added ADAs ( Additional defender affected ).

Playmaking
- DTOs ( Total defender taken out )
- EDTOs ( Extra defender taken out NOT YOUR MAN )
- Double
- Triple
- Création ~ R’Creation ( Rim )/ P’Creation ( Prerimeter )
- SC ( Screen assist )
- ADAs ( additional defender affected )
Scoring
- FGA
- FGM
- M ( midrange )
- P ( Post play )
- R ( Rim : lay up / dunk )
- T ( 3pt )
- PB ( Putback )
- FTA + FTM
- OCT ( Offensive Contest )
- OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested )
Offensive Rebound
- O-Reb ( offensive Rebound )
- *Obx ( Offensive Box Out )
- *Nobx ( Non offensive Boxout)
Q1
P1”0:24 – Bron bring ball up the court give it for Wade to create and Run to the Short corner
P2”0:43 – Bron get D-reb and start fast break offense but get Foul at half court
P2”1:05 – Bron try to take Paint position but saw Bosh moving up so he go to short Corner leaving the lane open for Bosh
P3”1:51 – Lebron move Right post to Left post see Wade missshot attempt so he Cut to put-back but fail ( O-Reb1 FGA1 PB1 OUCT1 Nobx1 )
P4”2:07 – Lebron bring ball up get pick on half court by KD( Kevin Durant ) decide to give it to Shawn. Bron move out of screen get ball at elbow Fake shot then drive get Double almost triple all defender is clocked in Bron lane leaving 3 man open, Pass to Mario but he wait too long for a shot attempt so he get press ( DTOs1-2-3-4 EDTOs1-2 ADAs1-2 Double1 P’Creation1 )
P5”2:35 - Bron initiat the Fast break give to Mario who then Give to Wade for a Dunk
P6”3:07 – KD is guarding Bron to far away at the 3pt leaving Bron open for a Shot attempt but miss ( FGA2 T1 OUCT2 )
P7”3:42 – Bron bring ball up to the 3Pt line try to get to the Corner pass to wade , wade got the ball poke out by KD while attempt a Drive ( Heat ball )
P7”4:04 – Bron waiting in the Corner see Bosh Drive so he cut to Clean up but Bosh make the shot
P8” 4:38 – Bron moving to Okc half court but Wade already make his lay up in transition
P9” 5:02 – Wade start the open lebron is there for the Screen on Perkins , wade drive lay but miss Lebron box out KD get the rebound try put back get double( Sefolosha/Ibaka ) in paint + block retake the rebound and attempt again with Ibaka contesting he make the shot ( FGA3 FGM1 PB2 Oreb2 OCT1 Double2 Obx1 SC1 ADAs3 )
P10”6:30 – Lebron move out the corner to get ball with Bosh screening KD get immediately Double pass to wild open wade who pass to Mario them pass to Shawn. Shawn drive baseline pass to Bron drive to paint leaving Mario/wade open but he fake then give back to Bron for a fall away 3pt which miss ( DTOs5-6-7/8-9 ETOs3-4/5 P’Creation 2-3 FGA4 T2 OCT2 )
P11” 7:26 – Bron post up KD then get the ball go face to face Jump shot on KD ( FGA5 FGM2 M1 OCT3 )
P12” 8:24 – Bron post up KD offball but Mario travel when driving
P13” – 9.05 Lebron + Bosh Screen Harden for wade. Bosh then do PNR with wade and Score (SC2 )
P14” –10.00 Bron get ball at 3pt line. Drive see double team coming then give to open Wade who give back to Bron in Paint then Give ball to wild open miller for 3pt but miss, wade O-Reb pass to Bron then “ Wade > Mario > Miller > Wade ), wade pass back to lebron that back door cut to baskest for the score ( DTOs10-11-12/13-14 EDTOs6-7 ADAs4 P’Creation4 Double3 FGA6 FGM3 R1 OUCT3 )
P15” 11:45 – Bron give ball to Bosh posting, then he cut to baskest Box out Harden for O-Reb and put it back in ( Oreb3 Obx2 FGM4 FGA7 PB3 OCT4 )
P16” 12:17 – Bron Post-up harden, Russ come help double team. Bron pass to Wild open Cole at the cornner who miss (DTOs15-16-17 EDTOs8-9 Double4 P’Creation5 )
P17” 13:20 – Bron moving around the elbow but don’t get any action
P18” 14:41 – Bron blow-by Harden offball for to attempt a lay up but get Foul before shot attempt
P18” 15:15 – Bron post up Sefolosha but foul away from the ball happen “miller get FTA”
P19” 17:03 – Bron bring ball up drive blow-by KD+Collison for a Layup ( FGA8 FGM5 R2 OCT5 )
P20” 18:28 – Bron get pick up near the half court by Russ. The. Collison come double on top of the Keys. Bron pass to Cole at 3pt line who drive then pass for wade to Attempt but get Foul ( Double5 P’creation6 DTOs18-19-20 EDTOs10-11 )
END Q1
P21” 20:50 – Bron post up Sefolosha try to Pump fake didn’t work pass to wade but got steal by Self
P22” 21:35 – Bron fast break drive lay up thru Two defense in the paint ( FGA9 FGM6 R3 OCT6 )
Lebron Rest – back at 29:50
P23” 29:53 -Bron have the ball to keys pass to Bosh try to create but he cannot so pass to wade, then Bron cut for the ball and lay “fail” get his O-Reb goet up for Putback but get Foul by Perkins ( Oreb4 Obx3 FGA10 R4 OCT7 FTA1-2 FTM1 )
P24 31:30 – Bron post KD then pass ball to wade who miss a fall away jump shot
P25 31:47 – Bron fast break outlet pass above 2 defender for wade to score at the rim ( DTOs21 R’Creation1 )
P26”32:56 – Bron PNR with Bosh. Give a great bounce pass to Bosh as a roll man but Bosh get block by Perkins, wade is there to clean up ( DTOs22-23 ADAs5 )
P27” 33:51 – Bron get the ball at the corners attempt a Drive get double by Russ+Ibaka and “every defender are in the paint/lane for Bron“ pass to wild open Mario who miss a 3pt ( DTOs24-25-26-27 EDTOs12-13-14 P’Creation7 Double6 )
P28” 35:50 – Bron waiting on top of the keys while Wade/Bosh was trying to create their own shot but didn’t work ‘24sec violation’
P29” 36:28 – Bron fast break bring Double team on himz hand the ball for wade who baseline cut to the basket but got Foul ( Double7 DTOs28-29 EDTOs15 )
P30” 37:47 – Haslem screen for Bron to get the ball, pass it to wade in Paint but Wade miss
P31” 38:04 – Bron fast break pass to wade who then pass to Mario for a pump fake and bring ball back to wade reverse layup which fail
P32” 39:09 – Bron Post-up KD. Get double Attempt a layup but got block by KD ( FGA11 R5 OCT8 Double8 )
P33” 40:00 – Bron have the ball top of the keys , see 3 defender in lane to stop his drive so he pass to wild open Shawn who make the 3pt ( DTOs30-31-32 EDTOs16 ADAs6 P’Creation8 )
P34” 41:11 – Bosh Screen for Bron who drive baseline get double pass to open Shawn ‘ Could be a creation but bad delivery’ who pass back Mario>Bosh>Wade who miss the Shot ( DTOs33-34-35 EDTOs17 ADAs7 Double9 )
P35” 41:32 – Bron fast break Drive split the defense for a layup AND ONEEE ‘FOUL ON KD’ ( FGA12 FGM7 R6 OCT9 FTM2 FTA3 )
P36” 42:56 – Bron get pick on top of the keys by a double team pass to open Mario but Mario pass to wade then Shawn get the ball for a Catch-shoot 3pt ( DTOs36-37-38 EDTOs18 ADAs8 Double10 )
P37” 43:34 – Bron try to put the shot up at the Brazzer highly contested but miss ( FGA13 T2 OCT10)
END Q2
P38”45:56 – Bron cut to baskest but don’t get the ball run back to the elbow get a Catch-shoot midrange but miss ( FGA14 M2 OUCT4 )
P39” 46:24 – Bron was at half court when wade try to score in transition but get Foul
P40” 47:45 – Bron do an Offball PNR with Bosh. But KD foul Bron while grabbing him
P41” 49:36 – Bron get the ball at 3pt line give back to Bosh for a shot attempt
P42” 50:53 – Bron try to post up and jump shot on Sef but get tight contested making him miss ( FGA15 P1 OCT11 )
P43” 51:10 – Bron get the ball at FT line give to wade who Lob it to Bosh but get Foul
P44” 52:55 – Bron post up Sef, See Russ coming for help so he pass to open Wade ( Russ man defender ) for a jump shot which miss ( DTOs39-40 EDTOs19 P’creation9 )
P45 54:00 – Bron get pick half court by Sef give ball to Mario. Get the ball back try to pass but get deflected by KD
P46 54:33 – Bron get ball 3pt line drive get double team but still attempt the layup which miss ( FGA16 R7 OCT12 Double11 )
P47 55:15 – Mario drive layup fail ‘bron didn’t get any action to do’
P48 55:36 – Bron fast break Bounce pass to Wade for the Dunk ( DTOs41 R’creation2 )
P49” 56:10 – Bron drive kick to Mario who pass to wade at the paint ‘ get Foul’
P50” 57:43 – Bron Post-up Russ, Sef come help double leaving Mario open at 3 pt which Bron pass the ball to but he miss ( Double12 DTOs42 EDTOs20 P’Creation10 )
P51” 58:31 – Bron get the ball dribble out a bit then give ball to open Bosh for the midrange but miss ( DTOs43-44 EDTOs21 P’creation11 )
P52” 59:46 – Bron get the ball get guarded by Sefz Blow by him for a floater on Perkins contested face. He make it FGA17 FGM8 R8 OCT13)
P53” 103:00 – Bron drive kick for Shawn 3PT get Foul ( DTOs45-46 EDTOs22 )
P54” 104:33 – Wade create a shot for Jones at the 3pt line while lebron is at the elbow
Lebron Rest – comback 109:34
P55” 111:06 – Lebron clear out for wade to drive and go to the 3pt line which wade kick the ball to. Bron hit the 3pt ( FGA18 FGM9 T3 OUCT5)
P56” 111:45 – Bron fake the 3pt drive for a floater but miss ( FGA19 R9 OCT14 )
END Q3
P57” 113:40 – Bron try to get to the paint with Russ guarding. Wade turnover
P58” 114:18 – Bron drive get high contested pass the ball to open wade at the paint ‘ miss ‘ ( DTOs47-48 EDTOs23 R’creation 3 )
P59” 115:00 – Bron get the ball in paint immediately double team and 2 other play collapse in paint but haslem help screen one. Give the ball to open Mario who pass it to Wild Open Jones “who man defender was helping against Bron in paint” for the 3pt ( DTOs49-50-51-52 EDTOs24-25 ADAs9 Double13 P’Creation12 )
P60” 115:25 – Bron dribble the ball in but Offensive foul away from the ball “Haslem”
P61” 116”34 – Bron post Harden and KD Colison come help so he pass to Wade open in paint but ball get poke out wade hand ( DTOs53-54-55 EDTOs26-27
P62” 117:43 – Bron give ball to Bosh. Then cut for the O-Reb pass to Bosh then it get to Mario for the layup ( Oreb5 Nobx2 )
P63” 119:20 – Bron cut to baskest but Bosh airball
P64” 120:27 – Bron try to cut baseline but Wade turnover
P65” 121:00 – Bron get ball blow by Harden and get Foul in the paint ( FTA4-5 FTM3-4 )
P66” 122:49 – Bron post up harden get double team. Pass to open Bosh at the rim ‘could be R’creation but bad delivery ‘ and turnover ( Double 14 )
P67” 123:10 – Bron move to the Short corner waiting for the ball. Wade turnover
P68” 124:24 – Bron post up harden, Russ try to help then go back Perkins come to double which Bron did a fade away shot fail ( FGA20 P2 OCT15 )
P69”125:04 – Bron screen and move out wade lane. So wade drive and get Foul ( SC3 )
P70” 126:40 – Bron waiting at the 3pt, see Bosh shot attempt so he tried to Rebound but can get it
P71” 127:06 – Bron get the ball from Mario on fast break, he drive thru contact and lay up and ONE ( FGA21 FGM10 R10 OCT16 FTA6 FTM5 )
P72” 129:15 – Bron get the ball back from Bosh”who get O-Reb of wade attempt” . Drive see double with bosh helping screen perkin who try to help coming then kick to Mario who also drive but get block ( DTOs56-57-58 EDTOs28 ADAs10 ) (heat ball)
P72” 129:50 – Bosh get the ball but turnover
P73” 130:30 – Bron bring ball up drive split the defense and lay up ( FGA22 FGM11 R10 OCT17 )
P74” 131:50 – Bron is in the OKC half. Wade bring ball up but turnover at half court
P75” 132:01 – Bron screen for wade and switch their defender out. Wade jump shot miss ( SC4 )
P76” 133:25 – Bron PNR with bosh. Bosh screen and roll while lebron drive take the ball to the elbow see double pass to Bosh who cut in paint but Bosh get fouls ( DTOs59-60-61 EDTOs29 ADAs11 )
P77” 135:10 – Bron pull up jump shot on midrange miss ( FGA23 M3 OCT18)
P78” 137:44 – Bron get press at half court by Harden but harden foul him ( FTA7-8 FTM6 )
End of Q4 ( Heat won )

RESUME LBJ game 3 final 2012
Total Possession of play when lebron was on the floor – 78
Total Possession of play lebron have action both on/off ball – 66
1. Playmaking
Double – 14
DTOs - 61
EDTOs – 29
ADAs - 11
Création Total – 15
R’creation – 3 ( Rim )
P’creation – 12 ( Prerimeter )
SC – 4
2. Scoring
FGA - 23
FGM - 11
R – 10 ( 7 / 10 )( Rim )
P - 2 ( 0 / 2 ) ( Post play )
PB – 4 ( 2 / 4 )( Put Back )
M – 3 ( 1 / 3 ) ( Midrange )
T – 4 ( 1 / 4 ) ( Three pointer )
FTA - 8
FTM – 6
OCT -18 ( Contested shot )
OUCT – 5 ( Uncontested )
3. Offensive rebound
O-Reb - 5
Obx – 3 ( Boxout )
Nobx – 2 ( Non Boxout )

My tracking of LEBRON JAMES 2012 Final Game 2 against the OKC OFFENSE only

https://www.nba.com/watch/video/game-2-miamis-big-3-lead-the-way-in-thrilling-road-victory?plsrc=nba&collection=nba-finals-2012-2

Playmaking
-DTOs ( Defender take out )
-EDTOs ( Extra defender taken out )
_ ADA ( Additional defender affected )
--Double
-Triple
-Création ~ R’Creation ( Rim )/ P’Creation ( Prerimeter )
-SC ( Screen assist ) ( GHOST SCREEN DO NOT COUNT )
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
- BB ( BRING Ball up )
Scoring
-FGA
-FGM
-M ( midrange )
-P ( Post play )
-R ( Rim : lay up / dunk )
-T ( 3pt )
-PB ( Putback )
-FTA + FTM
-OCT ( Offensive Contest )
-OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested )
- FD ( Foul draw by defender )
( P - Possession. If your team get the Oreb or foul and your team get control of the ball it will be counted as same possession )
Q1
P1 = 1.34 – Mario bring ball up hand off to bron who pass to wade and get the ball back. Try to pass bounce at paint for bosh but KD kick ball ( Heat ball )
P1 = 1.58 – Bron get ball pass to wade. Wade drive kick to battier for 3pt
P2 = 2.34 – Bron moving off ball in transition get ball from wade at short corner then drive thru perkins for lay up ( FGA1 FGM1 R1 OUCT1 )
P3 = 3.11 – bron get ball from mario then drive on KD then kick to battier. Get ball back post up KD with Sef try to double but come late. Lebron missed ( FGA2 P1 OCT1 )
P4 = 3.37 – Bron bring ball up in transition then KD and SEF come block bron lane. So bron kick to open wade at 3pt line but wade drive kick to mario who missed a 3pt. Bosh Oreb pass to battier who missed a 3pt ( BB1 DTOs1-2 EDTOs1 P’Creation RPDL1 )
P5 = 4.20 – Bron in the corner when mario drive then handoff to wade who cut but wade missed. Bosh try putback MISSED. Wade get Oreb try to lay but KD Block it ( heat ball ) !
P5 = 4.45 – wade get ball at top keys. Lebron come ghost screen to switch their defender. Then wade drive on KD for a lay up
P6 = 6.03 – Wade bring ball up in transition with lebron following. Wade attempt a contested dunk get block by Ibaka. !
P7 = 6.20 – Bron bring ball up drive but Sef body check him on the lane. Bron pass to open mario at 3pt line but he just stand still and pass back to bron get deflected by SEF ( Heat ball ) ( BB2 DTOs3 ADAs1 P’Creation2 RPDL2 )
P7 = 6.47 – bosh get ball drive get foul. Bron in corner
P8 = 8.04 – Mario save the ball pass to bosh in transition for a lay up and ONE. Ibaka loses ball foul on FT ( Heat ball ) !
P8 = 9.00 – mario get ball drive but missed the lay up. Lebron was on top keys
P9 = 9.13 – perkins TOV so wade get the ball to score fastbreak. Bron at heat court !
++++++FOOTAGE LOSES from NBA APP ( BUT it on You tube )+++++
P10 = ( GAME TIME 6.08 ) Lebron get ball pass to bosh who try to post up but missed
P11 = ( GAME TIME 5.45 ) Wade run fastbreak bring the ball up. Lebron follow and post up to gain position. Then wade kick to battier for a 3pt
PP12 = ( GAME TIME 5.00 ) Lebron wait in short corner. Get the ball then post up KD then drive pump fake for a mid range ( FGA3 FGM2 M1 OCT2 )
+++++ GO BACK TO NBA APP FOOTAGE ++++
P13= 9.51 – lebron fight KD for position in paint. Then he runout to short corner for the ball. Lebron post up KD to the paint get double contest on the floater. He make it ( FGA4 FGM3 P2 OCT3 Double1 )
P14 = 11.20 – Lebron bring ball up get pick on full court by sef. Reset with bosh then run to the corner bounce pass to wade who cut. Wade pumk fake on KD and shoot to get the foul ( BB3 )
P15 = 13.04 – Bron bring ball up hand off to wade at top key. Then he move off ball to the other side for the ball. The drive on SEF for a contested lay up ( FGA5 FGM4 R2 OCT4 )
P16 = 13.35 – Wade bring ball up transition with lebron follow to the paint. Wade pull up from FT line. !
P17 = 14.07 – Bron bring ball up then Time out ( Heat ball )( BB4 )
P17 = 14.24 – Lebron get the ball at ft line then attempt a jump shot on SEF ( FGA6 M2 OCT5 )
P18 = 15.03 – Bron get ball top keys. Haslem foul off ball. !
P19 = 15.53 – bron post up sef then drive but the ball get hit off the court by SEF ( Heat ball )
P19 = 16.23 – Lebron get ball with 3sec left. Try a midrange but missed ( FGA7 M3 OCT6 )
P20 = 17.00 – Miller get foul on heat court while taking a rebound. He do FT. !
P21 = 18.50 – Bron bring ball up the blow by Sef for a dunk. Get block by ibaka at the rim ( BB5 FGA8 R3 OCT7 )
Q2
P22 = 19.40 – bron fight SEF for position. He get the ball then post up to the paint but he missed. Haslem putback ( FGA9 P3 OCT8 )
P23 = 21.30 – Lebron in corner when wade drive for a floater. !
P24 = 21.55 – Cole bring ball up fast break for a lay up. Lebron was following behide. !
P25 = 22.30 – wade bring ball up then PNR with haslem but TOV. Bron was at the 3pt. !
P26 = 22.48 – bron run ahead in fast break. Wade get Dreb and try to pass but pass to slow so get steal by SEF. !
P27 = 30.45 – Bron run transition get position in post. Wade drive pump fake pass to bosh who attempt lay up get block goaltending ( questionable call )!
P28 = 31.58 – bron run transition go on KD then block fisher position by screening him off ball. Wade bring ball up pass to open battier for 3pt ( Cause bron was on fisher lane ) ( SC1 ADAs2 )
P29 = 32.57 – Wade bring ball up drive for a foul. Bron was at the short corner!
P30 = 34.16 – Mario bring ball up pass to bron who drive hand off to wade post up then cut to the paint. Wade step back jumper missed
P31 = 35.29 – Bron get ball then outlet pass to open mario at the other court. But mario hesitate ibaka close out he try to drive but get out of bound ( DTOs4 P’Creation3 EPDL1 )
P32 = 36.10 – Mario bring ball up then pass to bron. Bron post up drive to a double team then attempt a floater get BLOCK. Bosh Oreb then pump fake for a dunk ( Double2 FGA10 R4 OCT9 )
P33 = 37.30 – Mario get Dreb dribble a bit then bullet pass to cole in transition for a layup but get block. !
P34 = 37.41 – Bron bring ball up fast break drive thru a triple team for a contested layup ( BB6 Triple2 FGA11 FGM5 R5 OCT10 )
P35 = 38.14 – Bron bring ball up Sef pick him up at top keys. Perkin come zone near him so bron pass to open mario for a 3pt ( BB7 DTOs5 EDTOs2 P’Creation4 EPDL2 )
P36 = 38.44 – bron bring ball up get pick on by sef full court. Battier come screen so bron drive with KD catching up. Bron attempt layup missed tip the Oreb to bosh. Bosh pass to battier who pass to mario. Mario drive floater MISSED bosh try putback MISSED ( BB8 FGA12 R6 OCT11 )
P37 = 40.17 – wade bring ball up reset with bosh then drive kick to bron at 3pt line. Bron switch on ibaka. Drive pump fake then make a floater ( FGA13 FGM6 R7 OCT12 )
P38 = 41.00 – bron get ball at 3pt line bosh come screen sef so bron drive by ibaka come block the lane. Lebron blow by to get foul ( FD1 FTA1-2 FTM1-2 )
P39 = 43.25 – Lebron get ball then PNR with bosh. Lebron fake drive see double team coming pass to open bosh at paint. Bosh layup get deflected by westbrook who rotate from behide ( Dtos6-7-8 EDTOs3-4 R’Creation1 RPDL3 )
( 14 possession without opportunity to affect the play in First half )
Q3
P40 = 43.57 – Bron bring ball up hand off to mario then cut to the the paint. Bosh get the ball for a foul ( Heat ball ) ( BB9 )
P40 = 44.25 – Bron fighting for position with Kd around the court and post him up on the elbow. Then wade drive post fade away but MISSED !
P41 = 45.08 – Bron get ball in corner bosh come screen KD. Bron switch on Perkins then drive split the defender for a layup ( FGA14 FGM7 R8 OCT13 )
P42 = 46.35 – Mario bring ball up pass half court. Then give ball to lebron. Bron give back ghost screen and roll to the paint. Bosh get ball instead and TOV
P43 = 47.56 – Lebron drive thru Sef lay up get block. Get the Oreb then Put it back in ( FGA15-16 R9 PB1 FGM8 OCT14-15 )
P44 = 49.20 – Mario bring ball up give to bron who pass to wade. Then screen switch on KD for wade. Wade can’t get Sef off him so he pass to bron with Sef closing up. Lebron post up spin move get double in paint for layup get FOUL ( Double3 FD2 FTA3-4 FTM3-4 )
P45 = 51.40 – Mario bring ball up give to wade who drive pull up on Perkins. Lebron at the corner !
P46 = 52.17 – Mario bring ball up lebron go to the corner. Wade get the ball PNR with bosh then pass to battier. Battier get close up by perkins so he drive for a floater. !
P47 = 53.00 – Lebron bring ball up pass to mario. Mario pass to wade but westbrook pick him up. Wade able to beat weatbrook off dribble for a lay up ( DTOs9-10 EDTOs5 BB10 )
P48 = 53.55 – Mario take the ball up half court pass to wade. Wade dribble to the post pass back to battier. Lebron get the ball attempt drive get the lane block by Ibaka and sef. Pass to mario who pump fake drive attempt floater missed ( DTOs11-12-13 EDTOs6 ADAs3 RPDL4 )
P49 = 55.03 – Mario take ball up the court. Lebron get to the paint with SEF on him. Lebron get to the post for the ball then post up SEF KD come help double there 4 player at the rim so Bron pass to open battier at 3pt and make the shot ( Double4 DTOs14-15-16-17 EDTOs7-8 ADAs4 EPDL3 P’Creation5 )
P50 = 55.40 – Wade drive pull up but missed !
P51 = 57.29 – Lebron fight with sef in the PAINT-POST then move out to leave room for wade to operate. Wade cannot take westbrook out so he pass to mario who drive but get ball deflected out ( heat ball )
P51 = 58.10 – Battier get ball for 3pt but missed !
P52 = 58.47 – Mario bring ball up then bron run from the post to top keys for ball then drive to a double try to pass to haslem in paint but get deflected by perkins ( DOUBLE5 BPDL1 )
P53 = 59.19 – Bron bring ball up wait for the the shot clock to go by then drive on KD for A FOUL ( FD3 FTA5-6 FTM5-6 )
P54 = 100.39 – Bron bring ball up in transition the fake drive pass to battier. Then he roll in paint so harden and westbrook need to come contest bron room of action leaving mario wide open. Battier pass to mario who fake 3pt drive bounce for wade who miss the lay up. Bron is there to clean up but get foul first ( DTOs18-19 EDTOs9 P’Creation6 BB11 FD4 FTA7-8 FTM7-8 )
P55 = 102.40 – Bron bring ball up get pick on by sef at top keys and perkin + fisher come help on ball. Bron pass to open Mario cause westbrook was in bron lane. Mario pass to haslem in paint but Perkins close out. Bron get ball back dribble a bit then jump shoot a 3pt Missed ( BB12 DTOs20-21-22-23 EDTOs10-11 ADAs5 RPDL5 FGA17 T1 OCT16 )
P56 = 104.05 – Cole bring ball up lebron come to take the ball drive thru SEF to a double with fisher help but bron make the layup anyway ( FGA18 R10 FGM9 OCT17 Double6 )
P57 = 104.35 _ bron get ball bring up court PNR with bosh screen and roll. Bron drive get double with also harden come in the lane thenkick ball to open cole at 3pt line but missed ( BB13 DTOs24-25-26 EDTOs12-13 P’Creation7 EPDL4 Double7 )
P58 = 105.00 – bron brin up the bron see double team coming behide back pass to bosh. He pump fake pass back. Bron PNR with bosh then he make an early bounce pass bosh don’t pay attention and loses the ball in paint ( BB14 DTOs27-28/29-30 EDTOs14/15 R,Creation2 RPDL6-7 )
P59 = 106.01 – Bron bring ball up SEF pick him up top keys collison come help and Fisher come close the lane. Bron pass to Jones. Fake drive pass back to bron. Lerbon get double by sef and collison then he pass to jones cause Fisher overcommitted on bron lane. Jones make the floater ( DTOs31-32/33-34 RPDL16/17 P’Creation8 BB15 )
P60 = 106.37 – Bron bring ball up get pick by SEF half court. Bron PNR with bosh then get double. Pass to open haslem in short corner cause harden was rotating on bosh rolling. Haslem missed the midrange ( Double8 BB16 DTO35-36-37 EDTOs18 ADAs5 P’Creation9 RPDL10 )
Q4
P61 = 113.00 – Bron bring up the ball with harden on him. Bron pass to wade and roll to the paint. Wade missed a fade away ( BB17 )
P62 = 113.40 – Bron bring up the ball reset with bosh then play PNR. Drive see triple team coming ( Collison West Harden ) so he pass to open mario at 3pt line but missed ( BB18 DTOs38-39-40 EDTOs19-20 P’Creation10 RPDL11 )
P63 = 114.19 - Bron bring up the ball attempt drive with battier screening he see triple team coming pull back then attempt another drive with battier rescreen and KD drop coverage defense on bron. Bron missed Floater ( BB19 FGA19 R11 OCT18 )
P64 = 114.55 – Bron off ball post up Harden then he get the ball west brook come double weak side so bron pass to cutting wade in paint but wade get Foul (DTOs16 EDTOs11 R’Creation3 EPDL5 )
P65 = 116.27 – wade bring ball up transition drive bad pass to battier. But battier barely get ball pass to bron. Bron drive hit harden to the ground so Collison come close out so bron pass to open bosh in paint for easy DUNK ( DTOs41-42 EDTOs21 R’Creation4 EPDL6 )
P66 = 118.00 – Bron get ball top keys pass to wade. Bron go to screen but wade deny and drive for TOV
P67 = 118.56 – Bron at the corner waiting while wade work on the ball for a floater. Lebron cut to putbak but wade shot is in basket !
P 68 = 119.44 – Bron at the corner then wade dribble pass to battier for a 3pt. !
P 69 = 120.16 – Bosh pass ball to Bron top keys then bosh screen. Bron drive get foul by collison ( FD5 FTA9-10 FTM9-10 )
P70 = 121.15 – Bron bring the ball up post up harden pass to battier. Run to get ball back fake drive so harden is on him and KD come help block lane. Bron pass to battier who fake drive pass to bosh missed 3pt ( BB19 DTOs43-44/45-46 EDTOs22 ADAs6 RPDL12 )
P71 = 121.50 – Bron bring ball up harden pick him up. Battier come screen so bron drive on KD to basket and Ibaka come help block bron shot ( BB20 FGA20 R12 OCT19 Double8 )
P72 = 123.35 – Bron bring the ball up attempt drive see triple team on lane reset with bosh. Drive get double can’t pass so he have the ball in hand till wade freely cut to the Paint cause sef was watching bron. Then wade make floater ( BB21 DTOs47-48-49/50-51 EDTOs23-24 ADAs7 EPDL7 )
P73 = 124.18 – wade bring ball up pass to bosh. Bosh pass to bron then come screen PNR. Bron get double top keys then pass to bosh rolling but KD Steal ( Double9 BPDL2 )
P74 = 124.39 – Bron take ball in transition then slow the tempo. Fake drive pass to open battier cause KD was on bron lane. Battier drive pass to cutting wade but get steal in action ( BB22 DTOs52-53 ADAs8 P’Creation11 RPDL13 )
P75 = 125.20 – Bron get ball top keys drive on SEF for a PULL UP ( FGA21 FGM10 M4 OCT20 )
P76 = 128.40 – bron moving off ball in paint then come out to screen for wade ( SC2 ADAs9 )
P77 = 130.04 – wade dribble ball in transition got steal!
P78 = 130.23 – Bron get ball at logo then pull up 3pt MISSED ( FGA22 T2 OCT21 )
P 79 = 131.19 – Bron get Dreb and get foul for Free throw ( FD6 FTA11-12 FTM11-12 )

RESUME Game 2 lebron 2012 offensively
Total Possession when bron was in the floor – 79
Total Possession of play lebron have action both on/off ball – 57
Total Possession of play lebron didn’t affect or didn’t have the opportunity to affect – 22
Playmaking
-DTOs - 53
-EDTOs – 24
- ADAs – 9
-Double - 9
-Triple - 2
-Création - 15
~ R’Creation ( Rim ) - 4
- P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) -11
-SC ( Screen ) - 2
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 7
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 13
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) – 2
- BB ( Bring ball up ) - 22
Scoring
-FGA - 22
-FGM - 10
-M ( midrange ) -4 ( 2/4 )
-P ( Post play ) – 3 ( 2/3 )
-R ( Rim : lay up / dunk ) – 12 ( 5/12 )
-T ( 3pt ) – 2 ( 0/2 )
-PB ( Putback ) – 1 ( 1/1 )
-FTA - 12
+ FTM – 12
-OCT ( Offensive Contest ) - 21
-OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested ) - 1
- FD ( Foul draw by defender ) - 6

Especially when he's playing without a legitimate second option.

Spoiler:

MJ averaging 13 assists while creating vastly less than games where the tracked player averaged 4 is not the defense you think it is:

This means per-possession Jordan had around .11 EDTOS.

During the first 40 possessions of game 1 of the 2007 finals, Lebron averaged, per possession:
.425 EDTOs

Also, defense is a thing and according to the data you posted, Lebron saw a big jump in rim fg% from the regular season...
where he was already looking like one of the most impactful defenders in the league:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/2015-cavs-defensive-rating-with-and-without-lebron

(Cavs defense jumps 5 points in games Lebron plays, a little bit worse of a delta than a certain Kawhi Leonard)

There was a big drop in TS. There was also, however, a massive spike in scoring volume and creation (at least according to the box-score you love taking at face value), as well as a massive defensive jump by the metric you decided to highlight. Considering it was the cavs that improved more in the playoffs despite the second best player missing nearly half the postseason and the third best player missing nearly all of it (and the 5th best player missing 2 games himself), I'd say the results strongly suggest the effiency drop was far outweighed by everything else.

[Elpolo_14]

Since I got CP3 on my TOP 3 player of the year and Offensive player of the year. I will post my tracking of his offensive game in the playoffs

Chris paul Game 7 against the SPURS in 2015 Offense only

Watch on YouTube

;t=5766s

Playmaking
-DTOs ( Defender take out )
-EDTOs ( Effective defender taken out )
- ADAs ( Additional defender affected )
-Double
-Triple
-Création ~ R’Creation ( Rim )/ P’Creation ( Prerimeter )
-SC ( Screen assist ) ( GHOST SCREEN DO NOT COUNT )
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) for creation or when the defense is attach on his presence
Scoring
-FGA
-FGM
-M ( midrange )
-P ( Post play )
-R ( Rim : lay up / dunk )
-T ( 3pt )
-PB ( Putback )
-FTA + FTM
-OCT ( Offensive Contest )
-OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested )
- FD ( Foul draw by defender )
( P - Possession. If your team get the Oreb or foul and your team get control of the ball it will be counted as same possession )
Q1
P1 = 3.20 – CP bring ball up pass to JJ and run to the paint. He get the ball back at the elbow then Jordan screen for him. CP pump fake and hit a midrange on parker ( FGA1 FGM1 M1 OCT1 )
P2 = 4.00 – blake attempt a fast break lay up but get foul. CP was on the clipper side
P3 = 5.24 – Blake fast break lob to barnes but he missed. CP was on the clipper side
P4 = 6.13 – Cp PNR with Jordan. He drive to Duncan blocking lane so he bounce pass to open blake at ft line which he make the shot ( DTOs1-2-3 EDTOs1 ADAs1 P’creation1 EPDL1 )
P5 = 6.50 – CP top keys see JJ running off ball so he pass but kawhi get a tight contest make JJ miss
P6 = 7.16 – CP top keys pass to blake with kawhi on him. The pass is too high for kawhi to intercept so blake get the ball and drive for a foul ( CLIPPER BALL )
P6 = 7.40 – CP run to top keys with Jordan screen for him and he pass to JJ open at 3PT line cause Jordan make a moving screen on parker but JJ missed ( DTOs4-5 ADAs2 P’creation2 RPDL1 )
P7 = 8.22 – CP get the ball from JJ and drive pass parker with Jordan screening for him and attempt a midrange ( FGA2 M2 OCT2 )
P8 = 8.51 – JJ have the ball then pass to cp but CP set back. JJ drive kick to CP. CP pass to blake who get double team so he pass to barnes for open 3pt
P9 = 9.54 – CP boxing for position with Parker around the court and Blake hit a jumper on Duncan
P10 = 10.18 – Blake take the ball fast break b fake drive to double team and bounce pass to Barner for open 3pt but MISSED
P11 = 10.43 – CP top of the keys pass to barnes open at the corner cause Jordan was screening kawhi away ( DTOs6-7 ADAs3 P’creation3 EPDL2 )
P12 = 11.14 – fast break CP pass the ball to barnes at the logo. Barnes get pick by green so he pull up 3pt but missed
P13 = 11.50 -Cp get the ball and attempt to beat parker off the dribble but blake come screen for him. Parker foul the screen ( CLIPPER BALL )
P14 = 12.17 – JJ find barnes at the corner who drive lay up
P15 = 13.05 – CP pass to JJ who drive and kick back. Blake come GHOST screen and roll so CP who get double pass to blake who pass to JJ. JJ pumk fake and miss the long 2pt. Jordan get the OREB and pass to barnes who lay it up ( DTOs8-9 EDTOs2 R’creation1 RPDL2 )
P16 = 15.00 – CP on the logo with parker on him Jordan and Glen come screen. Cp Drive to a double pass to glen hit a long 2pt ( DTOs10-11-12 EDTOs3-4 P’Creation4 RPDL3 )
P17 = 16.35 - CP on the top Keys with parker on him Jordan and Glen come screen. Then drive to Duncan blocking lane then pass to glen who didn’t attempt a shot but make bad pass TOV ( DTOs13-14-15-16 EDTOs5-6 ADAs4 P’Creation5 RPDL4 )
P18 =17.10 – CP in transition beat Mills off the dribble and hit a open 3pt ( FGA3 FGM2 T1 OUCT1 )
Q2
P19 = 30.30 – CP offball top of keys with kawhi on him. Crawford attempt a long 2pt but missed Jordan is there to putback and get foul
P20 = 31.36 – CP bring ball up full court then pass to crawford when kawhi press him on the drive. Crawford pass the ball to blake who pump fake and get foul in the paint
P21 = 33.04 – CP bring ball up get press by kawhi Jordan come screen so CP drive away. Kawhi slip was screen at press CP. Jordan another screen on kawhi then CP drive pass to blake who pass to barnes at the post ( DTOs17-18-19 EDTOs7 ADAs5 RPDL5 )
P22 = 33.26 – CP on transition get the ball kick out ( CLIPPER BALL )
P23 = 33.50 – CP get ball hand off to blake cause Kawhi pressing. Get the ball back and make a great pass to blake for a open lay up cause boris try to gamble and make Blake open ( DTOs20 EDTOs8 R’creation2 EPDL3 )
P24 = 34.11 – CP pass the ball to JJ for a transition 3pt but miss
P25 = 35.48 – CP pass to JJ. JJ drive with Jordan help screen then GREEN foul the screener ( CLIPPER BALL )
P26 = 36.07 – CP pass to jj who beat his man off the dribble and attempt a shot but Green come back in time to snatch the ball out JJ shot attempt
P27 = 37.12 – CP on logo with kawhi barnes and glen come screen. CP drive to the elbow get double then pass to open glen who drive lay up but missed Jordan is there to clean up ( Double1 DTOs21-22-23 EDTOs9 ADAs6 P’creation6 RPDL6 )
P28 = 38.22 – Cp bring ball up get press by kawhi so he pass to Jordan and get the ball back. Kawhi too physical and fouls CP ( FD1 FTA1-2 FTM1-2 )
P29 = 39.34 – Barnes screen kawhi for CP. CP drive dribble around the court to beat out kawhi and he get double team so he bounce pass to Jordan but the pass is to slow so Duncan close up force Jordan to pass. Duncan kick ball ( CLIPPER BALL ) ( DOUBLE2 BPDL1 )
P30 = 40.07 – CP pass to JJ then get ball back with kawhi on him jordantry screen but kawhi get pass. Cp attempt drive with kawhi on him see parker overcommitted so he pass to barnes for a 3pt but missed ( DTOs24-25 EDTOs10 P’creation7 RPDL7 )
P31 = 40.53 – CP bring ball up bounce pass to glen on top keys. Glen pass to crawford and run a PNR but fail
P32 = 42.17 – CP beat kawhi off the dribble to the paint and step back midrange on his face ( FGA4 FGM3 M3 OCT3 )
P33 = 42.40 – CP pump fake then hand off to glen who give back and screen for CP. Then get double pass to glen but bad pass make Duncan close out and contest the shot ( Double3 DTOs26-27 EDTOs11 BPDL2 )
P34 = 43.07 – CP drive on kawhi and tiago come double. CP pass to glen who cut and lay up ( Double4 DTOs28-29 EDTOs12 R’creation3 EPDL4 )
P35 = 44.10 – cp BRING BALL UP but Jordan get foul off ball for FT
P35 = 45.06 – Glen get the OREB from Jordan miss FT pass to JJ who pass to crawford for a 3pt
P36 = 46.00 – Jordan got hacked for FT
P37 = 47.15 – CP get the ball try to shoot to beat the beezer but didn’t get it out in time
Q3
P38 = 48.02 – CP get the ball pass to blake at ft line. Blake fake drive and pass to barnes at 3pt line MISSED
P39 = 48.20 – CP transition bounce pass to blake at the logo. Blake post up Duncan no look pass to barnes who cut and reset the ball to blake. Blake get double team in the post pass to open CP on 3pt line for a 3pt ( FGA5 FGM4 T2 OCT4 )
P40 = 49.15 – CP at the logo with parker on him pass to JJ who break Green ankle and attempt a shot
P41 = 49.40 – CP get the ball pass to barnes in transition but kawhi is there to stop him. So CP re get the ball. Make a PNR with Blake. Nearly get double so he pass out but the pass get deflected by parker ( Clipper ball ) ( BPDL3 )
P42 = 50.15 – blake get ball pass to barnes who cut for open dunk and ONE
P43 = 51.38 – CP drive on parker and kick the ball to blake then he screen tiago ( SC1 )
P44 = 52.12 – CP transition pull up from 3pt ( FGA6 FGM5 T3 OCT5 )
P45 = 52.45 – CP bring ball up in transition blake screen parker so CP pull up fro, 3pt but missed ( FGA7 T4 OUCT2 )
P46 = 53.16 – CP bring ball up bounce pass to blake who post up tiago. Blake miss the jumper
P47 = 53.37 – CP on transition pass to blake but balek get pick up so CP retake the ball. CP drive on tiago and get foul on top keys ( CLIPPER BALL )
P48 = 54.14 – CP on top keys pass to crawford who drive and got block by green
P49 = 54.30 – CP pass to blake who pass to open JJ in transition
P50 = 55.09 – CP blow by parker get pick by Duncan. So he pass to blake. Blake pull up on Duncan face ( DTOs29-30 ADAs7 RPDL8 )
P51 = 55.48 – Cp waiting in corner
P52 = 56.14 – CP get the ball at logo by JJ who earlier try to dribble around the ft area. CP drive try to bounce pass for crawford at corner but bad pass got steal ( BPDL4 )
P53 = 56.26 – CP have the ball in transition try to drive but the lane is too compacted. So he pass to jj who just get to half court. JJ get foul ( Clipper ball )
P53 = 57.03 – CP waiting in corner while blake dunk on boris head
P54 = 57.30 – CP in corner when Crawford TOV
P 55 = 58.05 – CP bring ball up pass to JJ who pass to blake and try to cut but get foul off ball ( Clipper ball but CP go rest )
P56 = 106.38 – CP bring ball up in transition to beat the clock. Get pass half court and Pull up at the STAPLES CENTER logo for a 3PT at the BUZZER ( FGA8 FGM6 T5 OUCT3 )
Q4
P57 = 108.10 – CP box with parker for position at 3pt line. Clipper got foul off ball ( CLIPPER BALL )
P57 = 108.30 – CP get ball with parker on him then switch with Blake to be on tiago and pass to blake who got a mismatch. Blake get double pass back for CP to pull up on tiago face ( FGA9 FGM7 T6 OCT6 )
P58 = 109.24 – CP at FT line screen for blake but blake got steal after ( SC2 )
P59 = 109.35 – CP pass to blake who run fast break. Blake pass to barnes for a dunk
P60 = 110.16 – CP drive pass to barnes who was open cause CP drive. But barnes pass to crawford who drive for a floater ( DTOs31-32-33 EDTOs13-14 P’creation8 RPDL9 )
P61 = 111.42 – CP try to beat parker off drbble then switch on tiago then parker come double so he pass to blake on the paint but Blake TRAVEL ( DTOs34-35 EDTOs15 R’Creation4 EPDL5 )
P62 = 112.28 – CP drive on parker with Jordan screening. CP see Duncan on the lane so he pass to blake. Get ball back pull up 2pt on nel face ( FGA10 FGM8 M4 OCT7 )
P63 = 113.20 – CP bring ball up pass to Jordan at top keys and pass to blake who cut for a layup and ONE
P64 =115.05 _ CP bring ball up pass to blake. Then blake run action with crawford and get foul ( CLIPPER BALL )
P64 =115.39 – CP get ball pass to Crawford then to blake but got steal by green
P65 = 116.20 – CP bring ball up fast break 4 on 3 pass to JJ who pass to crawford fro open 3pt MISSED
P66 = 117.19 – CP bring ball up pass to blake at the post. Who then pass back to open CP cause Jordan screen for him. CP drive pass but get deflected ( Clipper ball )
P66 = 118.00 – Jordan get hacked
P67 = 119.10 – CP on top keys then Jordan come screen green. So Cp drive jump shot at long 2pt but missed. Parker get Dreb but CP pock it out off his gand to blake then parker foul blake (FGA11 M5 OUCT4 )
P68 = 120.45 – Duncan elbow CP on the head so jj IS THE ONE bring ball up in transition. JJ PNP with blake for a 3pt
P69 = 121.38 – CP in corner when JJ pump fake and hit another 3pt on green head
P70 = 122.20 – CP in corner try to move offball in paint but got press by kawhi so he comeback. Blake iso drive on Duncan for a foul
P71 = 124.54 – CP in corner then Blake drive make CP open. Blake pass the ball to CP who drive and attempt a tough layup MISSED ( FGA12 R1 OCT8 )
P72 = 125.10 – CP in transition drive pass to JJ but too far so JJ slow to get the ball and kawhi close up. JJ then drive to a double team and pass to barnes for a contested 3pt ( .DTOs36 BPDL5 )
P73 = 125.52 – CP PNR with blake then drive to double team of Duncan Green when pass to rolling blake who got block by green while attempting a dunk ( Double5 DTOs37-38-39 EDTOs16-17 R’creation5 EPDL6 )
P74 = 127.20 – CP drive bounce pass to blake too low blake have trouble to get the ball so he get press and pass to crawford for a layup ( BPDL6 )
P75 = 128.00 – CP bring ball up try to waste the shot clock. Then run PNR with blake. Blake screen and roll but got stop by parker who rotate on the lane. CP pass anyway. Blake get ball fake pass so parker run to crawford and he hit a long midrange on Duncan who close up MISSED but barnes get rebound TIMEOUT ( DTOs40-41-42 ADAs8 EDTOs18 P’creation9 RPDL10 ) ( CLIPPER BALL )
P76 = 130.00 – CP top keys PNR with blake then drive. CP then pull up on DUNCAN FOR A FOUL ( FD2 FTA3-4 FTM3-4 )
P77 = 134.42 – Blake hand off the ball to CP. CP at the logo get pick by green. Then he drive on green :green stumble back; so Duncan come contest but CP layup anyway FOR THE WINNNNN ( FGA13 FGM9 R2 OCT9 )

RESUME CHRIS PAUL GAME 7 AGAINST THE SPURS 2015
Total possession when CP was in the game = 77
Total possession that CP have action in both on/off ball = 65
Total Possession of play CP didn’t affect or didn’t have the opportunity to affect = 12
Playmaking
-DTOs - 42
-EDTOs - 18
-Double - 5
-ADAs - 8
-Triple - 0
-Création - 13
~ R’Creation ( Rim ) - 4
- P’Creation ( Prerimeter ) -9
-SC ( Screen ) - 2
- EPDL( Elite pass delivery ) - 6
- RPDL ( Regular pass delivery ) - 10
- BRDL ( Bad pass delivery ) - 6
Scoring
-FGA - 13
-FGM - 9
-M ( midrange ) -5 ( 3/5 )
-P ( Post play ) – 0
-R ( Rim : lay up / dunk ) – 2 ( 1/2 )
-T ( 3pt ) – 6 ( 5/6 )
-PB ( Putback ) – 0
-FTA - 4
+ FTM – 4
-OCT ( Offensive Contest ) - 9
-OUCT ( Offensive Uncontested ) - 4
- FD ( Foul draw by defender ) - 2

[AEnigma]

Also don't find the whole "Curry declined in the postseason" narrative that OhayoKD is spewing particularly convincing.

Stephen Curry

RS: 23.7/4.6/7.7 on 63.8 %TS (+10.4 rTS) with 3.1 turnover
PS: 28.3/5.0/6.4 on 60.4 %TS (+7.7 rTS) with 3.9 turnovers

If you did not find it convincing, you would not be trying this little slight of hand where you imply Curry’s efficiency dip was a product of significantly increasing his shot rate (after all, look how much higher his postseason points per game was!), when what really happened is that he slightly increased his shot rate but mostly just played 20% more minutes per game than he had in the regular season.

And this decline in efficacy occurred despite the fact that literally every opposing point guard starter was injured during his run (although admittedly that arguably might have hurt his averages in the Finals specifically ).

I have no issue with Curry #1 votes here, in much the way I had no issue with Garnett #1 votes in 2008, but he was absolutely less effective in the postseason than he had been in the regular season — which is true of so many PoY seasons, and the majority of Curry’s own postseasons, that it is odd you would feel such a strong need to minimise it.

[IlikeSHAIguys]

Woah this is happening!

[Djoker]

Curry scored 1.8 points/game less than Lebron in the playoffs but on 11.7% better raw efficiency and 11.1% better relative efficiency. I don't think that can be understated. We know Curry's gravity also wreaked havoc off the ball so even Lebron having an apparent playmaking edge from assists isn't really proof that he was a better playmaker overall. I just think offensively, there is a large gap between them in favour of Curry in both the RS and PS in 2015.

Because Lebron James famously lacks gravity, and has no track-record of his impact and creation far outpacing his assist numbers:


Especially when he's playing without a legitimate second option.

Also, defense is a thing and according to the data you posted, Lebron saw a big jump in rim fg% from the regular season...
where he was already looking like one of the most impactful defenders in the league:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/2015-cavs-defensive-rating-with-and-without-lebron

(Cavs defense jumps 5 points in games Lebron plays, a little bit worse of a delta than a certain Kawhi Leonard)

There was a big drop in TS. There was also, however, a massive spike in scoring volume and creation (at least according to the box-score you love taking at face value), as well as a massive defensive jump by the metric you decided to highlight. Considering it was the cavs that improved more in the playoffs despite the second best player missing nearly half the postseason and the third best player missing nearly all of it (and the 5th best player missing 2 games himself), I'd say the results strongly suggest the effiency drop was far outweighed by everything else.

Lebron has plenty of rim gravity but that's on ball. He drives to the basket, attracts the defenders and then dishes it out. It's reflected in his assists.

Curry's gravity is mostly off ball with defenses freaked out about his shooting. He pulls defenders which gives his teammates open shots. That type of playmaking is NOT reflected in the assist totals.

He didn't have a 2nd option through parts of ECF and Finals. He had Kyrie in the first two rounds and still shot horribly.

The data shows Lebron was subpar on D in the RS (even your pal Elpolo said that) and then solid in the PS but far less impactful than Mozgov even though the latter played far fewer minutes than Lebron, he contested way more shots at the rim and with better efficacy.

Again, a big drop in TS is understating it. Curry scored on over 11% higher efficiency in the postseason... 11 PERCENT!

[OhayoKD]

Curry scored 1.8 points/game less than Lebron in the playoffs but on 11.7% better raw efficiency and 11.1% better relative efficiency. I don't think that can be understated. We know Curry's gravity also wreaked havoc off the ball so even Lebron having an apparent playmaking edge from assists isn't really proof that he was a better playmaker overall. I just think offensively, there is a large gap between them in favour of Curry in both the RS and PS in 2015.

Because Lebron James famously lacks gravity, and has no track-record of his impact and creation far outpacing his assist numbers:


Especially when he's playing without a legitimate second option.

Also, defense is a thing and according to the data you posted, Lebron saw a big jump in rim fg% from the regular season...
where he was already looking like one of the most impactful defenders in the league:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/2015-cavs-defensive-rating-with-and-without-lebron

(Cavs defense jumps 5 points in games Lebron plays, a little bit worse of a delta than a certain Kawhi Leonard)

There was a big drop in TS. There was also, however, a massive spike in scoring volume and creation (at least according to the box-score you love taking at face value), as well as a massive defensive jump by the metric you decided to highlight. Considering it was the cavs that improved more in the playoffs despite the second best player missing nearly half the postseason and the third best player missing nearly all of it (and the 5th best player missing 2 games himself), I'd say the results strongly suggest the effiency drop was far outweighed by everything else.

Lebron has plenty of rim gravity but that's on ball. He drives to the basket, attracts the defenders and then dishes it out. It's reflected in his assists.

Says who?

Spoiler:

MJ averaging 13 assists while creating vastly less than games where the tracked player averaged 4 is not the defense you think it is:

This means per-possession Jordan had around .11 EDTOS.

During the first 40 possessions of game 1 of the 2007 finals, Lebron averaged, per possession:
.425 EDTOs

I don't know about you, but creating far more than players who register 3 times as many assists doesn't strike me as "having your playmaking reflected in assists"

Regardless of tracker or methodology, Lebron consistently is far outcreating almost anyone who outassists him. Even when paired with a high-volume on-ball playmaker like Dwyane Wade.

Both the tape and winning strongly suggest Lebron's creation is not properly accounted for via assists. Accordingly, if you want "Steph creates way more outside of assists than Lebron" to be taken seriously (especially in a context where Lebron is spending half the playoffs without another legitimate scoring option or capable ball-handler), you're going to have to break out the tape (and time stamps) and show that.

Lazily regurgitating Ben Taylorisms just isn't going to cut it.

The data shows Lebron was subpar on D in the RS (even your pal Elpolo said that)

And he more recently said "wow, the gap between kawhi and lebron is actually pretty small". Elpollo, unlike you it seems, belives in this thing called evidence. Mozgov's higher fg% is already baked into the lineup and game-level splits, both of which clearly show Lebron as more valuable with the gap growing bigger when Lebron is completely removed from the team. Moreover it's Lebron, not Mozgov, who has a 13 year track record of improving teams on average by nearly 4 points defensively.

In short, the "data" unambiguously favors Lebron. Tracking what happens right at the end of a possession for a single aspect of defensive contribution is not an actual counter.

Again, a big drop in TS is understating it. Curry scored on over 11% higher efficiency in the postseason... 11 PERCENT!

And Lebron had 5 more assists, 5 MORE!

Lebron scored more, created far more, and anchored a -5 defense en route to sweeping a 60-win team and taking a 67-win team to 6 with arguably less help than Steph has ever played with.

The point is to improve your team's chance to win, not have a lofty true-shooting.

[lessthanjake]

Also don't find the whole "Curry declined in the postseason" narrative that OhayoKD is spewing particularly convincing.

Stephen Curry

RS: 23.7/4.6/7.7 on 63.8 %TS (+10.4 rTS) with 3.1 turnover
PS: 28.3/5.0/6.4 on 60.4 %TS (+7.7 rTS) with 3.9 turnovers

If you did not find it convincing, you would not be trying this little slight of hand where you imply Curry’s efficiency dip was a product of significantly increasing his shot rate (after all, look how much higher his postseason points per game was!), when what really happened is that he slightly increased his shot rate but mostly just played 20% more minutes per game than he had in the regular season.

And this decline in efficacy occurred despite the fact that literally every opposing point guard starter was injured during his run (although admittedly that arguably might have hurt his averages in the Finals specifically ).

I have no issue with Curry #1 votes here, in much the way I had no issue with Garnett #1 votes in 2008, but he was absolutely less effective in the postseason than he had been in the regular season — which is true of so many PoY seasons, and the majority of Curry’s own postseasons, that it is odd you would feel such a strong need to minimise it.

Isn’t Curry’s increase in minutes in the playoffs an argument in favor of his playoff impact? If we’re looking at box stats, his BPM was +9.9 in the regular season and +8.8 in the playoffs. So it was really high no matter what, but it did actually go down a little in the playoffs. But, as you note, he played 20% more MPG in the playoffs than in the regular season. It’s definitely far from clear that +8.8 on 20% more minutes is worse than +9.9. Indeed, 8.8*1.2 > 9.9. Of course, that’s just one metric, and his EPM Wins per game was a bit lower in the playoffs than in the regular season (0.265 vs. 0.238). Overall, though, it seems like pretty much a wash in terms of overall impact/production in RS vs. playoffs, with Steph’s per-possession impact/production going down in the playoffs a bit but his minutes going up.

Either way, it also seems like a bit of an academic point when it comes to POY, because his playoff rate stats are at the top of the heap anyways. He had the highest playoff BPM and the highest playoff EPM. Meanwhile, his playoff Thinking Basketball BPM and playoff WS/48 were 2nd and 3rd, but only behind players who didn’t even finish the second round. RAPTOR has died with 538, but I know Steph’s playoff RAPTOR was higher than LeBron’s (not sure if it was 1st overall, but I made prior posts noting it being ahead of LeBron, so I at least know that). I could go on. Playoff impact and box data goes in favor of Steph for POY, regardless of whether we think he was better or worse in the regular season than in the playoffs.

[Special_Puppy]

Also, defense is a thing and according to the data you posted, Lebron saw a big jump in rim fg% from the regular season...
where he was already looking like one of the most impactful defenders in the league:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/2015-cavs-defensive-rating-with-and-without-lebron

(Cavs defense jumps 5 points in games Lebron plays, a little bit worse of a delta than a certain Kawhi Leonard)

And this is why you gotta be cautious with vulgar WOWY stuff (LeBron was a good defender this season, but closer to a +1 on that end and not very different than Curry)

[ShotCreator]

Looking at the last iteration of the project, a lot of people were pretty low on Lebron this season. He had a lot of 3rd and 4th place finishes. His impact numbers don't look super strong in the playoffs but I think I can't put a guy like Harden over him. In the 69 games he played, the Cavs had a +6 rORtg and his impact stats are good so his problem is the missed games not poor play. In the PS his jumper was broken which hurt the offense and thus the overall impact but I still think he's probably pretty securely #2. Kawhi isn't in his prime yet, I just don't trust Harden nor do I think he's a big impact guy on O (while being a negative on D) and Westbrook is in the same boat as Harden and missed the PS.

As for DPOY, Draymond #1 is an easy choice. Kawhi #2 probably. Mozgov flies under the radar and could make my ballot. I posted his and the other Cavs' rim protection numbers in one of the old threads (and just dug it up!) and he looks like a DPOY candidate especially in the PS. Just elite stuff from the big Russian but then the next season he suddenly stops getting minutes, starts getting hurt and never makes much noise in the NBA. Funny how it goes sometimes.

2015 Cavaliers - Regular Season
Lebron James: 63.8 dFG% (97/152) +5.1%
Tristan Thompson: 56.6 dFG% (218/385) -2.3%
Timofey Mozgov: 52.6 dFG% (257/489) -6.4%
Kevin Love: 56.0 dFG% (232/414) -2.8%

Lebron actually struggled defending the rim in the RS. Mozgov looks like the best defender on the team by some distance.

2015 Cavaliers - Playoffs
Lebron James: 52.8 dFG% (38/72) -6.9%
Tristan Thompson: 56.2 dFG% (68/121) -2.4%
Timofey Mozgov: 42.9 dFG% (42/98) -16.5%
Kevin Love: 61.9 dFG% (13/21) +3.7%

Love got injured in the first round. In the playoffs Lebron looks a whole lot better but Mozgov is again the Cavs' most impactful defender.

Well, Harden was much better than LeBron against GS in the playoffs IMO.

More effective anyway.

[Djoker]

Can't remember the last time I replied to someone on any forum or medium where they made like 10 claims and literally all 10 are false or at least very dubious but presented as the truth.

Says who?

Spoiler:

MJ averaging 13 assists while creating vastly less than games where the tracked player averaged 4 is not the defense you think it is:

This means per-possession Jordan had around .11 EDTOS.

During the first 40 possessions of game 1 of the 2007 finals, Lebron averaged, per possession:
.425 EDTOs

I don't know about you, but creating far more than players who register 3 times as many assists doesn't strike me as "having your playmaking reflected in assists"

Regardless of tracker or methodology, Lebron consistently is far outcreating almost anyone who outassists him. Even when paired with a high-volume on-ball playmaker like Dwyane Wade.

Both the tape and winning strongly suggest Lebron's creation is not properly accounted for via assists. Accordingly, if you want "Steph creates way more outside of assists than Lebron" to be taken seriously (especially in a context where Lebron is spending half the playoffs without another legitimate scoring option or capable ball-handler), you're going to have to break out the tape (and time stamps) and show that.

Lazily regurgitating Ben Taylorisms just isn't going to cut it.

Consistently outcreating based on what? You cited data from 40 possessions of a single game in 2007. Not to mention it's your own subjective way of tracking that has little or no actual value. But a sample of half a game from 8 years before is just LOL worthy...

And he more recently said "wow, the gap between kawhi and lebron is actually pretty small". Elpollo, unlike you it seems, belives in this thing called evidence. Mozgov's higher fg% is already baked into the lineup and game-level splits, both of which clearly show Lebron as more valuable with the gap growing bigger when Lebron is completely removed from the team. Moreover it's Lebron, not Mozgov, who has a 13 year track record of improving teams on average by nearly 4 points defensively.

In short, the "data" unambiguously favors Lebron. Tracking what happens right at the end of a possession for a single aspect of defensive contribution is not an actual counter.

No it doesn't. The data shows Mozgov as much more impactful in 2015. 14 years of doing whatever is irrelevant.

And Lebron had 5 more assists, 5 MORE!

Lebron averages 2.1 more assists while doing the lion's share of his creation on ball compared to Curry who does a lot of creation off ball.

Lebron scored more

1.8 points per game more while shooting >11% worse.

, created far more

Dubious claim. No evidence to support it.

, and anchored a -5 defense

Incorrect. Mozgov is the one who literally anchored the defense. Contested way more shots at the basket with much better efficacy.

en route to sweeping a 60-win team

A 60-win team with an SRS of a 55-win team and fading rapidly down the stretch of the season.

and taking a 67-win team to 6 with arguably less help than Steph has ever played with.

The Cavs' offense in the Finals was -1.8 rORtg so they did it with defense. Lebron's huge volume low efficiency and playmaking didn't do as much as you think to move the needle.

The point is to improve your team's chance to win, not have a lofty true-shooting.

All impact stats like RAPM, LEBRON, MAMBA, RAPTOR etc. have Curry head of Lebron. But I guess impact stats don't care about impact when they disagree with your priors.

[OhayoKD]

Also, defense is a thing and according to the data you posted, Lebron saw a big jump in rim fg% from the regular season...
where he was already looking like one of the most impactful defenders in the league:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/2015-cavs-defensive-rating-with-and-without-lebron

(Cavs defense jumps 5 points in games Lebron plays, a little bit worse of a delta than a certain Kawhi Leonard)

And this is why you gotta be cautious with vulgar WOWY stuff (LeBron was a good defender this season, but closer to a +1 on that end and not very different than Curry)

This is what you consider caution?

[Texas Chuck]

I won't pretend to know the degree to which Lebron's playmaking exceeds his actual assists, but its absurd we are even disputing this. LEbron drives, draws double, kicks it to the corner, defense rotates, ball gets swung to the wing, wide open 3-pt shot taken.

Lebron created that shot. He will never get an assist whether the shot was made or missed, but he did his job to perfection, he created a high value shot for his team.

Its like when we had people seriously try and argue KG was as good an offensive player as Dirk because look he scores almost as much but look at all these assists that Dirk doesn't have. Except anyone who watched Dallas play offense saw Dirk set a screen and defenses let Jason Terry shoot wide open 18 footers because the big wouldn't leave. Or let JJ Barea go downhill for layups or lobs or kick outs.

Or Dirk in the high post where you single him you die, so you double he kicks it out, veteran team makes extra pass and no box score for Dirk on any of these, but he created the shot.

Well this isn't just Dirk. This is Lebron. Who also has a massive impact on what defenses are doing. This idea that assists remotely capture his offense impact is ridiculous on its surface.

I know this board loves Steph and doesn't like Lebron because they prefer how he plays. So his off-ball spacing super valuable(it is indeed), Lebron's on-ball dominance(not that great and totally captured by assist totals (Absurd, just absurd).

[Special_Puppy]

And this is why you gotta be cautious with vulgar WOWY stuff (LeBron was a good defender this season, but closer to a +1 on that end and not very different than Curry)

This is what you consider caution?

Advanced Defensive Stats this season

Curry
D-DPM +0.9
D-EPM Expected +1.1
D-LEBRON +1.0
D-RAPTOR +2.4
3-Year D-RAPM Luck Adjusted +2.0
D-BPM +1.7

LeBron
D-DPM +1.4
D-EPM +1.5
D-LEBRON +1.0
D-RAPTOR +0.2
3-Year D-RAPM Luck Adjusted +2.0
D-BPM. +1.0

[lessthanjake]

I don't know about you, but creating far more than players who register 3 times as many assists doesn't strike me as "having your playmaking reflected in assists"

This is perhaps something that should be its own separate discussion, but I think there’s some really massive flaws in how you analyze how much someone “creates.” I wrote about a bunch of them here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=118455758#p118455758.

One thing in the above-linked post that is mentioned that I want to emphasize is that different offensive systems create in different ways. Of note, some systems rely a lot on ball movement, off-ball player movement, and screening action to spring people free, create mismatches, etc. Other systems involve the guys without the ball being much more static, which helps improve spacing for the guy with the ball. That makes it easier for the guy with the ball to “create” something, but also basically means the rest of the team isn’t creating as much for themselves when they don’t have the ball (or with the ball, since they get the ball less). It’s a tradeoff. One type of system isn’t inherently better than the other, and the answer of which one will be better probably just depends on what best fits the personnel a team has. What is true, though, is that a system that focuses on optimizing the ability for the guy with the ball to “create” will result in that guy doing better in this sort of “creation” analysis than players in other systems will. The trade off is that the rest of the team simply won’t have an opportunity to create as much (both on the ball, but also off the ball).

Given the huge effect that the system has on how much an individual player will “create,” proper evaluation of “creation” should be more about impact on creation. Even assuming “DTOs” is a perfect measure of creation (a flawed premise, but let’s just accept it for these purposes), a player who has fewer “DTOs” in a system that gives them less opportunity to have “DTOs” could be having more impact on their team’s overall number of “DTOs” if they’re outperforming what the system would expect by more than a guy in a different system does. I realize that this impact on creation would be extremely hard to figure out via tracking, because it’s impossible to really measure what the expected creation within a given system is. The better approach would probably be to just try to measure impact on “shot quality” but that’s not a super satisfying answer, because shot-quality metrics aren’t really perfect and don’t go back very far. So I don’t have a great answer, but I do think that your method of analysis is inherently biased in favor of players who play in systems that you prefer (or perhaps you prefer the systems because you prefer the players—not clear).

Both the tape and winning strongly suggest Lebron's creation is not properly accounted for via assists.

FWIW, I previously did analysis of the average percent increase in teammates’ shot quality that occurred when players were on the court. See here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107624238#p107624238. As we might expect, LeBron in this era comes out looking great. But Steph in this era is off the charts, far above everyone else. A big reason for this is that Steph is an outlier in terms of his impact on the percent of shots his teammates get at the rim: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107628798#p107628798. As mentioned above, no shot quality measure is perfect, so this can be looked at with a grain of salt, but it certainly indicates a significant “creation” advantage for Steph overall.

There’s other aspects to offense beyond sheer “creation,” but I think drilling down into teammates’ shot quality is perhaps the best way to get at the specific question of creation.

Accordingly, if you want "Steph creates way more outside of assists than Lebron" to be taken seriously (especially in a context where Lebron is spending half the playoffs without another legitimate scoring option or capable ball-handler), you're going to have to break out the tape (and time stamps) and show that.

Lazily regurgitating Ben Taylorisms just isn't going to cut it.

See above.

The data shows Lebron was subpar on D in the RS (even your pal Elpolo said that)

And he more recently said "wow, the gap between kawhi and lebron is actually pretty small". Elpollo, unlike you it seems, belives in this thing called evidence. Mozgov's higher fg% is already baked into the lineup and game-level splits, both of which clearly show Lebron as more valuable with the gap growing bigger when Lebron is completely removed from the team. Moreover it's Lebron, not Mozgov, who has a 13 year track record of improving teams on average by nearly 4 points defensively.

In short, the "data" unambiguously favors Lebron. Tracking what happens right at the end of a possession for a single aspect of defensive contribution is not an actual counter.

I’m not sure how you can say that “lineup and game-level splits” “clearly show LeBron as more valuable” defensively, given that Mozgov’s DRAPM that year was superior to LeBron’s in both regular season and the playoffs (as per TheBasketballDatabase’s one-year RAPM). I think you can certainly try to argue that LeBron was a better defender over the course of longer time horizons. But the thread is about 2014-15 specifically. So if Mozgov looks better in 2014-15 but worse in longer timespans, then it’s certainly possible Mozgov simply was the better defender that year though it’s also possible LeBron was better but noise resulted in Mozgov being ahead that year. That’s not an example of anything being “clearly shown.”

And, FWIW, it’s not actually very clear LeBron was a better defender over a lengthy time horizon in this era. Five-year RAPM actually gets us a pretty large sample size. And in five-year RAPM for the last five years of his career, Mozgov’s DRAPM was ranked 40th according to NBArapm and 35th according to TheBaskeballDatabase. In that same time period, LeBron’s DRAPM was ranked 145th according to NBArapm and 477th according to TheBasketballDatabase. Granted, if we took the 2013-17 timeframe for LeBron instead, to avoid his awful defensive 2018, then he’s ranked 29th in DRAPM according to NBArapm and 71st in DRAPM according to TheBasketballDatabase. Given this data, it’s not surprising for Mozgov to have outperformed LeBron in defensive impact in 2014-15 specifically.

Also, I realize you talk here about how we shouldn’t just care about what happens at the end of the possession, but there’s been some talk in this thread already about rim FG% against, and I just want to note that even in the playoffs, we can see that LeBron had really low amounts of rim contests per 100 in this era. Like way below league average. When your rim-contest load is that small, the sample sizes in the playoffs are tiny. That not only means the rim contest FG% difference numbers are noisy (where large percentage changes occur based on differences of a few shots), but it also means that the effect of any changes in those numbers are small. You’re right that Mozgov was a superior rim protector in both regular season and playoffs, but the change from regular season to playoffs for him was also much bigger. Mozgov’s rim points saved per 100 possessions went from +1.6 in the regular season to +3.3 in the playoffs. LeBron’s rim points saved per 100 possessions went from -0.3 in the regular season to +0.6 in the playoffs. So Mozgov not only was far better in this regard in absolute terms, but his improvement in the playoffs was much larger. So to the extent anyone is trying to use changes in this data to determine why the Cavs improved defensively in the playoffs, this data definitely would support the answer being Mozgov more than LeBron. (Of course, all this is noisy, so it’s not clear that either guy necessarily improved in the playoffs as much as just having opponents happen to miss shots at the rim more in the playoffs).

[Djoker]

I won't pretend to know the degree to which Lebron's playmaking exceeds his actual assists, but its absurd we are even disputing this. LEbron drives, draws double, kicks it to the corner, defense rotates, ball gets swung to the wing, wide open 3-pt shot taken.

Lebron created that shot. He will never get an assist whether the shot was made or missed, but he did his job to perfection, he created a high value shot for his team.

Its like when we had people seriously try and argue KG was as good an offensive player as Dirk because look he scores almost as much but look at all these assists that Dirk doesn't have. Except anyone who watched Dallas play offense saw Dirk set a screen and defenses let Jason Terry shoot wide open 18 footers because the big wouldn't leave. Or let JJ Barea go downhill for layups or lobs or kick outs.

Or Dirk in the high post where you single him you die, so you double he kicks it out, veteran team makes extra pass and no box score for Dirk on any of these, but he created the shot.

Well this isn't just Dirk. This is Lebron. Who also has a massive impact on what defenses are doing. This idea that assists remotely capture his offense impact is ridiculous on its surface.

I know this board loves Steph and doesn't like Lebron because they prefer how he plays. So his off-ball spacing super valuable(it is indeed), Lebron's on-ball dominance(not that great and totally captured by assist totals (Absurd, just absurd).

I assume this post is directed at me since I'm the one disputing OhayoKD's claims, many of which are outrageous IMO.

To clarify, I don't dispute that Lebron's playmaking impact goes beyond assists. It obviously does. Not all shots he creates are made (potential assists address this problem) and as you said many hockey assists and potential hockey assists are unaccounted for. My argument was that the extent to which Lebron's playmaking can be measured by assists is greater than the extent to which Curry's playmaking can be measured by assists. Since Lebron is largely an on-ball creator while Curry is a hybrid creator with a lot more off-ball creation, I feel like this is a pretty obvious point to make. On-ball creation is correlated, though not measured by assists while off-ball creation has no correlation with assists whatsoever.

[Texas Chuck]

I assume this post is directed at me since I'm the one disputing OhayoKD's claims, many of which are outrageous IMO.

To clarify, I don't dispute that Lebron's playmaking impact goes beyond assists. It obviously does. Not all shots he creates are made (potential assists address this problem) and as you said many hockey assists and potential hockey assists are unaccounted for. My argument was that the extent to which Lebron's playmaking can be measured by assists is greater than the extent to which Curry's playmaking can be measured by assists. Since Lebron is largely an on-ball creator while Curry is a hybrid creator with a lot more off-ball creation, I feel like this is a pretty obvious point to make. On-ball creation is correlated, though not measured by assists while off-ball creation has no correlation with assists whatsoever.

I'm not defending his claims. And it was directed to more than one poster suggesting we could fairly accurately measure Lebron's offensive impact through his assists.

I see you understand how simplistic and incomplete that is. And yes Curry creates more as a spacer and mover than Lebron. That goes without saying.

I'm not going to pretend I'm smart enough or have the time enough to parse through every possession of that season and try and assign credit. And the Steph portion of that is just so subjective. Do we credit him for every good shot the Warriors get when he's on the court because of the gravity of his presence? If not which shots do we not. If so, should we be? And its not like Lebron has no off-ball gravity of his own. Oh its very different, but how do we account for it?

My point was just even for Ball dominant players its not as simple as PPG + Assists. Take current offensive darling Luka Doncic. He scores a ton of points and has a bunch of assists and it still undersells his offensive impact as I think he had 4 years in a row of leading the league in quality of shots created for teammates? And by a pretty big margin too if I remember correctly.

But then even with that is Luka a better offensive player over that time period than Jokic? Than Steph? IDK.

We try and make it simple and black and white when its anything but. But I do know assists don't remotely capture how much easier Lebron made life for his teammates that year.

[OhayoKD]

Can't remember the last time I replied to someone on any forum or medium where they made like 10 claims and literally all 10 are false or at least very dubious but presented as the truth.

Says who?

Spoiler:

MJ averaging 13 assists while creating vastly less than games where the tracked player averaged 4 is not the defense you think it is:

This means per-possession Jordan had around .11 EDTOS.

During the first 40 possessions of game 1 of the 2007 finals, Lebron averaged, per possession:
.425 EDTOs

I don't know about you, but creating far more than players who register 3 times as many assists doesn't strike me as "having your playmaking reflected in assists"

Regardless of tracker or methodology, Lebron consistently is far outcreating almost anyone who outassists him. Even when paired with a high-volume on-ball playmaker like Dwyane Wade.

Both the tape and winning strongly suggest Lebron's creation is not properly accounted for via assists. Accordingly, if you want "Steph creates way more outside of assists than Lebron" to be taken seriously (especially in a context where Lebron is spending half the playoffs without another legitimate scoring option or capable ball-handler), you're going to have to break out the tape (and time stamps) and show that.

Lazily regurgitating Ben Taylorisms just isn't going to cut it.

Consistently outcreating based on what? You cited data from 40 possessions of a single game in 2007.

And now we're lying:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=118847842#p118847842

If one clicks this link or scrolls to the top of this page they'll see not one, but two full games from a batch of 5 that were tracked last week alone. And yes it's subjective, in a way which all granular inputs are (including the basic box-score). But of course you don't care about "objective" as we see here:

No it doesn't. The data shows Mozgov as much more impactful in 2015. 14 years of doing whatever is irrelevant.

The "objective" data massively favors Lebron over full games and gives Mozgov a marginal per-possession advantage in lineup ratings...which translates to a big advantage for Lebron when one accounts for minutes.

you can play whatever semantics you want. Lebron was emeprically more impactful than Mozgov defensively and it's not paticularly close. Even if we restrict things exclusively to their 2015 stints on the Cleveland Cavaliers (shocker: The denver data also has Mozgov as way less impactful than Lebron).

Anywho, since you were too lazy to attempt to produce anything supporting your playmaking claim, I'll move on to LessthanJake's..

[
FWIW, I previously did analysis of the average percent increase in teammates’ shot quality that occurred when players were on the court. See here: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107624238#p107624238. As we might expect, LeBron in this era comes out looking great. But Steph in this era is off the charts, far above everyone else. A big reason for this is that Steph is an outlier in terms of his impact on the percent of shots his teammates get at the rim: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107628798#p107628798. As mentioned above, no shot quality measure is perfect, so this can be looked at with a grain of salt, but it certainly indicates a significant “creation” advantage for Steph overall.

You did. The issue is that analysis left out whether shots were contested and uncontested.

When the openess of shots was factored in...it was advantage Lebron

And in five-year RAPM for the last five years of his career, Mozgov’s DRAPM was ranked 40th according to NBArapm and 35th according to TheBaskeballDatabase. In that same time period, LeBron’s DRAPM was ranked 145th according to NBArapm and 477th according to TheBasketballDatabase. Granted, if we took the 2013-17 timeframe for LeBron instead, to avoid his awful defensive 2018, then he’s ranked 29th in DRAPM according to NBArapm and 71st in DRAPM according to TheBasketballDatabase. Given this data, it’s not surprising for Mozgov to have outperformed LeBron in defensive impact in 2014-15 specifically.

Minutes. Played. Going by those numbers, it's advantage Lebron for 13-17...(by a big margin). Unless there is a big per-possession gap for the one-year rapm you're citing for 2015, the same holds true. And of course that's no reason to ignore the wowy or raw lineup splits available for both Mozgov and Lebron from this year.

[OhayoKD]

And this is why you gotta be cautious with vulgar WOWY stuff (LeBron was a good defender this season, but closer to a +1 on that end and not very different than Curry)

This is what you consider caution?

Advanced Defensive Stats this season

Curry
D-DPM +0.9
D-EPM Expected +1.1
D-LEBRON +1.0
D-RAPTOR +2.4
3-Year D-RAPM Luck Adjusted +2.0
D-BPM +1.7

LeBron
D-DPM +1.4
D-EPM +1.5
D-LEBRON +1.0
D-RAPTOR +0.2
3-Year D-RAPM Luck Adjusted +2.0
D-BPM. +1.0

And I care, why, exactly?