Top 25 peaks of the 2001-25: #11-#12 Spots

[eminence]

Kobe/Dirk the pretty easy 1/2 at this point for me. CP3 got a spot last time, but it was a loose vote.

I lean '16 for KDs peak over '14/'17, but he's probably not making my ballot yet. In my estimation he's not the next forward in line, it's Tatum. Deciding between Dray/Dwight for next big, guard is CP3 v Nash v Harden v Manu.

Luka/McGrady/Embiid/AD/Kidd/Westbrook/Big Ben/Butler names some might bring up but aren't in the discussion yet, maybe around spot 20 I'll start considering them.

Any names missed folks think should be in consideration for top 25?

[70sFan]

Kobe/Dirk the pretty easy 1/2 at this point for me. CP3 got a spot last time, but it was a loose vote.

I lean '16 for KDs peak over '14/'17, but he's probably not making my ballot yet. In my estimation he's not the next forward in line, it's Tatum. Deciding between Dray/Dwight for next big, guard is CP3 v Nash v Harden v Manu.

Luka/McGrady/Embiid/AD/Kidd/Westbrook/Big Ben/Butler names some might bring up but aren't in the discussion yet, maybe around spot 20 I'll start considering them.

Any names missed folks think should be in consideration for top 25?

I think Ray Allen deserves a mention. Since you mentioned Big Ben, what about Gobert? Also, not his peak, but I am quite high on 2001 Mutombo.

Of course none of this guys deserves consideration before 20th spot.

[eminence]

Kobe/Dirk the pretty easy 1/2 at this point for me. CP3 got a spot last time, but it was a loose vote.

I lean '16 for KDs peak over '14/'17, but he's probably not making my ballot yet. In my estimation he's not the next forward in line, it's Tatum. Deciding between Dray/Dwight for next big, guard is CP3 v Nash v Harden v Manu.

Luka/McGrady/Embiid/AD/Kidd/Westbrook/Big Ben/Butler names some might bring up but aren't in the discussion yet, maybe around spot 20 I'll start considering them.

Any names missed folks think should be in consideration for top 25?

I think Ray Allen deserves a mention. Since you mentioned Big Ben, what about Gobert? Also, not his peak, but I am quite high on 2001 Mutombo.

Of course none of this guys deserves consideration before 20th spot.

Allen mention actually makes me think of Pierce as he’s usually my favored 2nd tier guard/wing of that era. A handful of those 00s guards/wings not so far off one another, Kidd/Iverson/Carter.

Gobert my next big in line - personally have a small but clear preference for Ben in this type of project. Sheed in Portland another guy I’d think of in that range. Not so high on Mutombo for this era, but I hope Denver Dikembe makes it for the next era.

[iggymcfrack]

The question of whether Dirk would fit as well as Durant on the 2017 Warriors seems really silly to me. The answer is likely that Dirk wouldn’t fit as well, but that’s because Dirk is primarily a PF, Durant is primarily a SF, and one of the Warriors other major stars was primarily a PF (Draymond). It makes no sense whatsoever to determine who you’d vote for based on thinking a player who typically played a different position would fit less well on a team that already had a star at his position.

As for Durant’s defense, I think it’s pretty obvious that there’s a pretty big gap between the physical tools he had and how well he applied them. Easily the most important thing in terms of defense is how much a player focuses/concentrates and puts in effort, and Durant had issues in that regard that made him a far less effective defender than one would think he’d be if you just looked at his physical tools. The result is that Dirk was probably a bit more impactful on defense than Durant was. There’s not a big difference and both were probably just slight positives, but Dirk was a little better despite having less physical tools to work with.

Thank you!!! All this! The “well KD had about as little impact as you could imagine on the Warriors but Dirk would’ve had even less because he played the same position as their second best player” has to be one of the worst arguments I’ve seen in this entire project.

[Caneman786]

Kobe/Dirk the pretty easy 1/2 at this point for me. CP3 got a spot last time, but it was a loose vote.

I lean '16 for KDs peak over '14/'17, but he's probably not making my ballot yet. In my estimation he's not the next forward in line, it's Tatum. Deciding between Dray/Dwight for next big, guard is CP3 v Nash v Harden v Manu.

Luka/McGrady/Embiid/AD/Kidd/Westbrook/Big Ben/Butler names some might bring up but aren't in the discussion yet, maybe around spot 20 I'll start considering them.

Any names missed folks think should be in consideration for top 25?

If you're talking about Tatum, you gotta mention Paul George.

Paul George and Jimmy are both names you gotta put before Tatum. Better all-around players.

[eminence]

George is a good addition as well.

[Jaivl]

I wouldn't even remotely consider Big Ben at this point, much less Mutombo.

Kobe/Dirk the pretty easy 1/2 at this point for me. CP3 got a spot last time, but it was a loose vote.

I lean '16 for KDs peak over '14/'17, but he's probably not making my ballot yet. In my estimation he's not the next forward in line, it's Tatum. Deciding between Dray/Dwight for next big, guard is CP3 v Nash v Harden v Manu.

Luka/McGrady/Embiid/AD/Kidd/Westbrook/Big Ben/Butler names some might bring up but aren't in the discussion yet, maybe around spot 20 I'll start considering them.

Any names missed folks think should be in consideration for top 25?

If you're talking about Tatum, you gotta mention Paul George.

Paul George and Jimmy are both names you gotta put before Tatum. Better all-around players.

What's Paul George's peak, though? He's one of the clearest "different offensive and defensive peaks" guys we have.

[trex_8063]

KD should definitely start getting love, but I'm not so sure how he stacks up against Dirk/Kobe as offensive wings/bigs.

I've not really been participating or reading the presented cases, but I probably would have had one or both of KD and Dirk in before Kawhi (he'd likely fall in the #11-12 group for me). Not sure about Shai. #10 feels 'about right', though I've not evaluated him closely (I wouldn't object to #11, either).

Long way of saying that if I were participating, KD and Dirk would definitely be my picks here.

Kobe would likely be just after for me (likely my first pick for the #13-14 thread). I'd pair him with one of Joel Embiid, TMac, or maybe AD, most likely.

[Djoker]

9. 2008 Kobe Bryant
10. 2014 Kevin Durant
11. 2020 Anthony Davis
12. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki

With Kobe it basically comes down to box score dominance and maybe even more importantly empirical data regarding team success. Even though impact metrics don't love him, teams with him on the floor consistently had very good offenses, including post-Shaq, with pretty standard level offensive support. I believe the diversity of his skillset along with excellent playoff resilience makes him better in high leverage situations compared to multiyear RS impact metric show. He has four finals runs (three titles) with individual stats that can rival anyone in this era except Lebron and Jokic.

2001 PS:

29.4 IA Pts/75
+5.8 rTS
8.2 Box OC
8.1 cTOV%
47.1 Load

+13.4 rORtg ON Court

2008 PS:

30.4 IA Pts/75
+4.9 rTS
9.6 Box OC
8.5 cTOV%
49.2 Load

+7.9 rORtg ON Court

2009 PS:

30.6 IA Pts/75
+3.6 rTS
10.3 Box OC
6.5 cTOV%
50.5 Load

+8.4 rORtg ON Court

2010 PS:

30.3 IA Pts/75
+3.3 rTS
10.2 Box OC
8.9 cTOV%
51.8 Load

+8.4 rORtg ON Court

He has a pretty elite profile. High volume, moderately good efficiency, strong creation, low turnovers... Kobe is the best offensive player left in the project. On defense, I'm satisfied with calling him a slight positive.

I honestly feel that Kawhi in 2019 could be a little bit better than Durant ever was. And I'm not saying it based on any metrics. Maybe I'm just enamored how he carried my Raptors team through so much adversity to a championship when in prior years we were the laughingstock of the NBA. But then when I analyze their games, both guys are terrific scorers but I like KD more as a playmaker and while I love young Kawhi defensively, by the time he was on the Raptors, he did not have the same motor on that end with his new found defensive responsibilities. He's always a ticking time bomb health wise too and if Nick Nurse didn't load manage him during the regular season (we could afford to do so) there is no guarantee he could have survived the season. With KD, you just feel a ton more confidence about his durability. Thus I'll take KD over Kawhi by a hair. Without the health concerns, I'd probably take Kawhi by a hair and honestly these guys are two of the toughest for me to order. Basically if I can have a guy just for the playoffs, I'll take Kawhi but if taking the grind of the regular season into context, I'd take KD. Because there aren't that many deep teams and league situations like 2019 where you can load manage your superstar and still enter the playoffs as a high seed. A lot of things had to go right for my team to win a title in 2019 including plenty of luck in the playoffs. In 2017, Kawhi got hurt in the postseason and in 2020, he had his worst playoffs and lost a 3-1 lead. I feel good picking 2019 as his peak even if he was arguably a bit better when on the court in 2017.

The last spot was also tough. It's between Davis and Dirk for me. The thing is... in the 2020 playoffs, AD was shooting so well that he was Dirk-like. 55% from long midrange and 38% from 3pt land is elite shooting. And compared with DIrk, he was also deadly near the basket and more importantly, an elite player on the other end of the court too. I do consider Dirk's intangibles to be better and his shooting gravity cannot be understated but I still feel like 2020 Davis is better than any version of Nowitzki as a basketball player. Certainly not a lot better but he's at least reasonably close offensively while being an elite defensive big man. That combo is tough to beat. He co-led the 2020 Lakers with Lebron so he flies a bit under the radar but he played like a first option, no doubt about it regardless of if you think Lebron was better than him that year. And I don't think his shooting is a total fluke. In the 2023 playoffs, he again shot 59% from long midrange and 33% from 3pt land over 16 games. Ben and Cody discussed on the podcast how AD somehow shoots orders of magnitude better in the PS and that it might be noise but this project is about 1-year peaks. I can't pretend like Davis shot poorly when he in fact shot the lights out. For his entire Lakers' run, the man shot 51% from midrange and 33% from 3pt in the playoffs over 47 games. What I also don't like about Dirk is that he's a 7 footer than isn't a rim protector. Basically you have to pair him up with a great defensive C and that is tough in terms of roster construction. Basically, as good as Dirk is, I do feel like his prototype of player is limiting.





I also considered AD over guys like KD but ultimately I don't think he has the same advantage on defense over those guys that he does on Dirk. And more importantly, those KD's defensive weaknesses are IMO easier to shore up in a team concept compared to DIrk's.

[Caneman786]

What's Paul George's peak, though? He's one of the clearest "different offensive and defensive peaks" guys we have.

I'd say 2019. He had accolades (3rd in MVP voting, 3rd in DPOY voting, an efficient 28 PPG meaning 2nd in scoring). The impact metrics seem to point to that year, and the following two years, as Paul George's strongest point, on both defense and offense.

He himself also seems to consider that his own peak.

[Cavsfansince84]

I don't really get the Tatum love at all. He had a non mvp level rs. Did not play that great in the playoffs despite his team winning the title with a 16-3 playoff record. Worst series was in the finals. I don't think I could honestly have him above a bunch of guys who didn't win a title yet. It's not like he won an mvp in a different season either where you are trying to sort of combine that rs with the title run. He's really imo a semi poor man's KD. Probably a bit better defensively but KD is an atg level scorer and finished top 2 in mvp voting 4 times for a reason. I wouldn't even have KD in my top 2 at this point either so I see no argument whatsoever for Tatum. Another way to look at it is in 2024 Tatum finished 6th in voting on a 64 win team while Luka finished 3rd on a 52 win team and then I'd also say Luka had the better playoffs despite Tatum getting the ring. So Luka imo also should go in before him.

[eminence]

I don't really get the Tatum love at all. He had a non mvp level rs. Did not play that great in the playoffs despite his team winning the title with a 16-3 playoff record. Worst series was in the finals. I don't think I could honestly have him above a bunch of guys who didn't win a title yet. It's not like he won an mvp in a different season either where you are trying to sort of combine that rs with the title run. He's really imo a semi poor man's KD. Probably a bit better defensively but KD is an atg level scorer and finished top 2 in mvp voting 4 times for a reason. I wouldn't even have KD in my top 3 at this point either so I see no argument whatsoever for Tatum.

Tatum beats KD soundly as a lead playmaker and defender. Closest parallel is 05-08 LeBron. Better shooter, worse athleticism (translating to less rim pressure and a non GOAT tier motor). Did it in an actualized team setting with no real need for hypotheticals to build him up (a la KG/CP3/McGrady at various levels).

What’s not to love in the #15 range?

[Cavsfansince84]

Tatum beats KD soundly as a lead playmaker and defender. Closest parallel is 05-08 LeBron. Better shooter, worse athleticism (translating to less rim pressure and a non GOAT tier motor). Did it in an actualized team setting with no real need for hypotheticals to build him up (a la KG/CP3/McGrady at various levels).

What’s not to love in the #15 range?

I'd need more convincing that Tatum in 2024 soundly beats 2014 KD as a playmaker and he wasn't even the lead playmaker on the 2024 team. As far as assists go it was White at 5.2, Tatum at 4.9 and Jrue at 4.8. Then the gap in scoring is huge I would say. I would honestly have 2024 Luka somewhat easily above 2024 Tatum. He also had his playoff run after carrying a huge load in the rs while Tatum has an ok rs by his standards and an ok playoff run but plays on a team that's so deep they still coast to a title against pretty weak teams.

[lessthanjake]

One problem with Tatum is there’s not exactly a specific year that sticks out. He won the title in 2024, but he was genuinely not particularly good overall in those playoffs. He went to the Finals in 2022, but he had a genuinely weak Finals performance. He had a great first-round series in 2025, but then got injured in the second round (and was disappointing in that series until the game he got injured in). And prior to 2022 was a definite step down from his more recent years and just wouldn’t be good enough to appear on anyone’s ballot. So that basically just leaves 2023, I guess? It feels pretty weird to pick a year where a guy’s team got massively upset in the playoffs, but he actually had a solid series (though he had a weak performance in Game 7). So that probably is his best year individually. But losing in the conference finals in a huge upset isn’t all that inspiring in terms of team success (and, by extension, “greatness”) that year.

So yeah, I guess the way I conceptualize things with Tatum is this:

If we compare to the bucket of guys that were MVP-level players that didn’t have huge team success (Harden, Nash, Chris Paul), I think Tatum is clearly just a less impactful player than those guys. If we compare to the bucket of guys that did have major team success (Dirk, Kobe, Durant, Davis, Manu, etc.), Tatum just does not have anywhere near the playoff performance that those guys did in the years they had that success. So I just find it hard to get him above those guys. And that’s despite thinking that there’s players in there that are not generally more impactful than Tatum. Like, I don’t necessarily think Durant is more impactful than Tatum, but Durant played far better in the 2017 playoffs than Tatum ever did, and certainly better than Tatum did in 2024 (and honestly, the same is true for other Durant years beyond just 2017). So I don’t find it difficult to pick Durant as having a “greater” peak than Tatum, even if I’m not really sure Durant is more impactful in large regular season samples.

[Cavsfansince84]

One problem with Tatum is there’s not exactly a specific year that sticks out. He won the title in 2024, but he was genuinely not particularly good overall in those playoffs. He went to the Finals in 2022, but he had a genuinely weak Finals performance. He had a great first-round series in 2025, but then got injured in the second round (and was disappointing in that series until the game he got injured in). And prior to 2022 was a definite step down from his more recent years and just wouldn’t be good enough to appear on anyone’s ballot. So that basically just leaves 2023, I guess? It feels pretty weird to pick a year where a guy’s team got massively upset in the playoffs, but he actually had a solid series (though he had a weak performance in Game 7). So that probably is his best year individually. But losing in the conference finals in a huge upset isn’t all that inspiring in terms of team success (and, by extension, “greatness”) that year.

So yeah, I guess the way I conceptualize things with Tatum is this:

If we compare to the bucket of guys that were MVP-level players that didn’t have huge team success (Harden, Nash, Chris Paul), I think Tatum is clearly just a less impactful player than those guys. If we compare to the bucket of guys that did have major team success (Dirk, Kobe, Durant, Davis, Manu, etc.), Tatum just does not have anywhere near the playoff performance that those guys did in the years they had that success. So I just find it hard to get him above those guys. And that’s despite thinking that there’s players in there that are not generally more impactful than Tatum. Like, I don’t necessarily think Durant is more impactful than Tatum, but Durant played far better in the 2017 playoffs than Tatum ever did, and certainly better than Tatum did in 2024 (and honestly, the same is true for other Durant years beyond just 2017). So I don’t find it difficult to pick Durant as having a “greater” peak than Tatum, even if I’m not really sure Durant is more impactful in large regular season samples.

Is there a single metric out there that shows Tatum to be roughly as good as KD in terms of peak impact in the rs? I mean I'm open to any and all data someone can bring forwards for an argument. I just don't know of any out there which say that those two are roughly equal in terms of rs impact. If there's literally zero then I don't think that argument holds much of any water. Maybe some kind of rapm derivative does that I'm unaware of but I'd just like to know if one exists.

[eminence]

KD edges out Tatum in most raw plus/minus and on/off measures, Tatum takes the lead in most apm/rapm variants. KD then takes back the lead with the introduction of the box-score in xRAPMs. KD certainly looks better in the box-score than Tatum.

On Tatum's playmaking - raw APG are a pretty good proxy and worth using if we don't have film or more advanced tracking methods. With film/tracking, raw apg are seriously lacking. Saying just watch a season of the Celtics probably isn't helpful, so on the stats side - Tatum consistently leads the Celtics in touches/passes/time of possession, with the leads tending to grow in the playoffs. Dominant leads to the point of heliocentrism when focusing on the half-court offense*. Very very clearly the Celtics lead playmaker in my estimation.

*And for me at least that is the way to look at it, there's fairly limited value in being the one to bring the ball up once your team is past a quite low baseline that few remotely competitive teams have ever had trouble with (think the '77 Lakers when Allen was injured in the playoffs and Don Chaney was left to handle the ball).

[One_and_Done]

The lack of Jimmy Butler respect is wild. I don't think there's any chance half the guys named could carry a team of Bam, Gabe Vincent, Max Struss, and a washed K.Kove to the finals. How are guys like Tatum & Kobe being mentioned over Butler?

[Jaivl]

(...) I still feel like 2020 Davis is better than any version of Nowitzki as a basketball player. Certainly not a lot better but he's at least reasonably close offensively while being an elite defensive big man.

2020 Davis is better than any version of Nowitzki, Shai, Kawhi, Kobe, etc.

The problem (at least for me) is that 2020 Davis does not exist. He's just a variance issue beyond any confidence intervals. The bubble dice said that he was a 55% midrange shooter, 39% from three, but that's clearly not who he was as a player.

The lack of Jimmy Butler respect is wild. I don't think there's any chance half the guys named could carry a team of Bam, Gabe Vincent, Max Struss, and a washed K.Kove to the finals. How are guys like Tatum & Kobe being mentioned over Butler?

It's more impressive than anything Tatum has ever done, that's for sure. Unless we're counting breaking the cringemeter as an achievement.

[Cavsfansince84]

KD edges out Tatum in most raw plus/minus and on/off measures, Tatum takes the lead in most apm/rapm variants. KD then takes back the lead with the introduction of the box-score in xRAPMs. KD certainly looks better in the box-score than Tatum.

On Tatum's playmaking - raw APG are a pretty good proxy and worth using if we don't have film or more advanced tracking methods. With film/tracking, raw apg are seriously lacking. Saying just watch a season of the Celtics probably isn't helpful, so on the stats side - Tatum consistently leads the Celtics in touches/passes/time of possession, with the leads tending to grow in the playoffs. Dominant leads to the point of heliocentrism when focusing on the half-court offense*. Very very clearly the Celtics lead playmaker in my estimation.

*And for me at least that is the way to look at it, there's fairly limited value in being the one to bring the ball up once your team is past a quite low baseline that few remotely competitive teams have ever had trouble with (think the '77 Lakers when Allen was injured in the playoffs and Don Chaney was left to handle the ball).

Reliance on top and touches is not a great estimation of playmaking ability though. That's actually a criticism of Tatum is that he will hold onto the ball too long on the perimeter, dribble a bit then launch of a step back 3 rather than passing sooner or attacking with the ball. I have a hard time believing he is truly a tier above KD as a playmaker or that you'd really want him in a helio/lead playmaking role on your team.

[Djoker]

(...) I still feel like 2020 Davis is better than any version of Nowitzki as a basketball player. Certainly not a lot better but he's at least reasonably close offensively while being an elite defensive big man.

2020 Davis is better than any version of Nowitzki, Shai, Kawhi, Kobe, etc.

The problem (at least for me) is that 2020 Davis does not exist. He's just a variance issue beyond any confidence intervals. The bubble dice said that he was a 55% midrange shooter, 39% from three, but that's clearly not who he was as a player.

In the 2023+2024 playoffs over 21 games, he shot 57.1% from long midrange so I wouldn't subscribe to the theory that his midrange shooting in the bubble is an outlier. In the 2021 playoffs he shot poorly but was injured. The 3pt shooting in 2020 is more likely an outlier but he shot 33-34% for a few years in the regular season from 2018-2020 so it's not too bad. From 2021 onwards, he just reduced his volume a lot anyways.