Retro POY '08-09

[JordansBulls]

Here are some choice quotes from you regarding last season :

How is Gasol the 2nd option when he led the team in Win Shares.
I watch games and the fact is that Kobe hasn't even shot a better fg% than his team average in 7 years. Nearly every other star player does.

OK, yes, this was the regular season.

Kobe is 5th on his team in PER for the playoffs thus far and is 4th in Win Shares. But yet they are overrated?

Here you claimed that Kobe isn't even the first option on the LAkers?

I said he was 5th on team in PER at the time and 4th in WS. At the end he was 1st in both in the playoffs.

The argument was Pippen and Gasol, not Pippen and Odom.

So that means Pippen > Kobe as well right? Afterall if Pippen > Gasol than that means he is better than Kobe as Gasol led the team in win shares.

And here, you quite clearly argue that Kobe should not have won MVP - and now you're the guy that's saying he should've won the MVP ?

And he didn't win MVP, so what's your point?

Since Win Shares has existed every MVP winner with the exception of Nash has led their team in Win Shares. How much more arguing do you need?

I want you to be honest here. Has there ever been a stat that ever supported Kobe?

The fact is is there has never been a stat that supported Kobe other than leading the league in scoring twice.

Anytime someone uses any other stat it gets negated by it doesn't matter, that's not important when in effect mostly all other all time greats have led in multiple categories and aggregate stats/metrics..

And just so you know, I use stats where other all time great players have led in that combines their overall production.

[Silver Bullet]

Some Comments, then my final rankings:

Chris Paul –
Here is the problem I have with Chris Paul. He dominates the ball way way too much. Assist% is a ratio I look at to see how ball dominant a point guard is – of course, you will only see players who are very good passers of the ball, I’ll acknowledge that. But how high is Paul’s Assist% - well for this season, his Assist % was 54.5. Only 1 other guy in history has had a season with a higher Assist % - John Stockton. Nash’s team was totally built on his passing, so you should expect him to lead this category, but he tops out at 50.1 %. How about Magic Johnson ? Tops out at 49. But, the other thing is, Stockton and Nash were not really taking a boatload of shots while they were busy distributing the ball to team mates. Their usage%’s top out at barely 20 – Paul’s usage is nearly approaching 30 (27.5). That – makes him the most ball dominant point guard in the history of the game. So no wonder, he’s gonna put numbers that are at an all time level.
Kobe Bryant vs Lebron James
I would’ve voted for Kobe. I could have made a convincing case based on their performances against elite teams. Normally, you would expect players to have poorer numbers against better defenses in general, but Kobe actually plays significantly better against Elite teams, whereas his no. 2, Gasol is significantly worse. That shows me that Kobe is actually holding back during the regular season and letting his team mates get more involved. If you look at a game and analyze the number of players Kobe was involved in vs the number of plays Wade, Lebron, Paul are involved in, it wouldn’t even be close.
But in the end, If I could’ve convinced myself that the Lakers could’ve beaten the Cavaliers in the Finals, I would’ve gone with Kobe. I couldn’t. I think the Cavs just got screwed by a bad match up.

Dwight Howard –
Here is the problem. I started watching footage from last year, to try and find a hole in Lebron’s game. Instead I found a huge hole in Howard’s game. If you look at his impact vs the Lakers and vs the Celtics and against the Rockets, it is clear that his impact on the Magic gets over rated. Would they get to the Finals without him and with Gortat ? Well, probably not. But is he infinitely better than a healthy Tyson Chandler – I have my doubts. The Bobcats series was really the nail in the coffin. I mean, he’s a great player, but I think the Magic are closer to the 04 Pistons than they are to the 01 Lakers.
Dwyane Wade
As good as Wade is – I have the same two problems with him. First, his usage is sky high. In NBA history only three Swingmen have a usage% north of 35 – T-Mac in 02-03, Iverson in 05-06 and Wade in 08-09. But neither T-mac nor Iverson have anywhere near the Asst% that Wade has. He’s dominating the ball at an alarming level. Of course he’s gonna put up ridiculous stats.
The other thing is, winning 43 games in the East, just doesn’t cut it.
So based, on the above comments, Roland Ratings, team winning % and statistics, here are my rankings, with rankings at start in parenthesis:

1. Lebron James (1)
2. Kobe Bryant (2)
3. Tim Duncan (NR)
4. Dwight Howard (5)
5. Chris Paul (4)
HM: Dwyane Wade (3)

Wade drops out, because the Heat won only 43 games. I don’t believe a single player can carry his team to a title, but having a winning % greater than .500 in the East is not an unreasonable request.
Tim Duncan gets in because of the Spurs getting the 3rd seed in the West, and Duncan put up 20-10 at high efficiency, had an overlooked defensive season and put up the same PER as Kobe.

[Silver Bullet]

Here are some choice quotes from you regarding last season :

How is Gasol the 2nd option when he led the team in Win Shares.
I watch games and the fact is that Kobe hasn't even shot a better fg% than his team average in 7 years. Nearly every other star player does.

OK, yes, this was the regular season.

Kobe is 5th on his team in PER for the playoffs thus far and is 4th in Win Shares. But yet they are overrated?

Here you claimed that Kobe isn't even the first option on the LAkers?

I said he was 5th on team in PER at the time and 4th in WS. At the end he was 1st in both in the playoffs.

The argument was Pippen and Gasol, not Pippen and Odom.

So that means Pippen > Kobe as well right? Afterall if Pippen > Gasol than that means he is better than Kobe as Gasol led the team in win shares.

And here, you quite clearly argue that Kobe should not have won MVP - and now you're the guy that's saying he should've won the MVP ?

And he didn't win MVP, so what's your point?

Since Win Shares has existed every MVP winner with the exception of Nash has led their team in Win Shares. How much more arguing do you need?

I want you to be honest here. Has there ever been a stat that ever supported Kobe?

The fact is is there has never been a stat that supported Kobe other than leading the league in scoring twice.

Anytime someone uses any other stat it gets negated by it doesn't matter, that's not important when in effect mostly all other all time greats have led in multiple categories and aggregate stats/metrics..

And just so you know, I use stats where other all time great players have led in that combines their overall production.

Whatever JB, you're agenda has been exposed pretty clearly. Don't take it personally - I'm not attacking you or trying to insult you - just pointing out that it's pretty clear to everybody what you're trying to do here.

[Sedale Threatt]

Wade drops out, because the Heat won only 43 games. I don’t believe a single player can carry his team to a title, but having a winning % greater than .500 in the East is not an unreasonable request.

They did; 43-39 puts them at .524.

[Silver Bullet]

Wade drops out, because the Heat won only 43 games. I don’t believe a single player can carry his team to a title, but having a winning % greater than .500 in the East is not an unreasonable request.

They did; 43-39 puts them at .524.

Yea, I know. Barely.

I mean, I don't see Paul as having a significantly better SC, and he's in the West - and he won 49 games.
Wade has been winning the same low number of games for a number of years now, they've tried a variety of supporting casts.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Kobe Bryant vs Lebron James
I would’ve voted for Kobe. I could have made a convincing case based on their performances against elite teams. Normally, you would expect players to have poorer numbers against better defenses in general, but Kobe actually plays significantly better against Elite teams, whereas his no. 2, Gasol is significantly worse. That shows me that Kobe is actually holding back during the regular season and letting his team mates get more involved. If you look at a game and analyze the number of players Kobe was involved in vs the number of plays Wade, Lebron, Paul are involved in, it wouldn’t even be close.
But in the end, If I could’ve convinced myself that the Lakers could’ve beaten the Cavaliers in the Finals, I would’ve gone with Kobe. I couldn’t. I think the Cavs just got screwed by a bad match up.

I see LA beating the Cavs in the Finals if they met. Denver was the 2nd best team in those playoffs to me, due to balance and star power. And LA had a tougher road to a title than Cleveland did, yet won it all with Kobe at 30/5/5 and stepping it up defensively. I'm still dissapointed that Bron did take on the challenge of guarding Lewis after all the DPOY hype.

[Sedale Threatt]

Wade has been winning the same low number of games for a number of years now, they've tried a variety of supporting casts.

Yeah -- a variety of crappy supporting casts. Saddling him with old-ass Jermaine O'Neal and the immature Michael Beasley isn't exactly calling in the calvary, in my opinion.

I guess I fall back on the same argument as LeBron last year, and Kobe in the years immediately following Shaq's trade -- what more can he do? It's not like he isn't a proven playoff performer.

But that's cool; I could never argue against Tim Duncan's inclusion on any top five list. Or Dirk Nowitzki, for that matter.

[Silver Bullet]

Kobe Bryant vs Lebron James
I would’ve voted for Kobe. I could have made a convincing case based on their performances against elite teams. Normally, you would expect players to have poorer numbers against better defenses in general, but Kobe actually plays significantly better against Elite teams, whereas his no. 2, Gasol is significantly worse. That shows me that Kobe is actually holding back during the regular season and letting his team mates get more involved. If you look at a game and analyze the number of players Kobe was involved in vs the number of plays Wade, Lebron, Paul are involved in, it wouldn’t even be close.
But in the end, If I could’ve convinced myself that the Lakers could’ve beaten the Cavaliers in the Finals, I would’ve gone with Kobe. I couldn’t. I think the Cavs just got screwed by a bad match up.

I see LA beating the Cavs in the Finals if they met. Denver was the 2nd best team in those playoffs to me, due to balance and star power. And LA had a tougher road to a title than Cleveland did, yet won it all with Kobe at 30/5/5 and stepping it up defensively. I'm still dissapointed that Bron did take on the challenge of guarding Lewis after all the DPOY hype.

I don't - and it has nothing to do with Kobe. I think the Lakers lucked out that they got to play another soft team in the Magic. Varejao and Big Ben would've neutered Gasol.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Kobe Bryant vs Lebron James
I would’ve voted for Kobe. I could have made a convincing case based on their performances against elite teams. Normally, you would expect players to have poorer numbers against better defenses in general, but Kobe actually plays significantly better against Elite teams, whereas his no. 2, Gasol is significantly worse. That shows me that Kobe is actually holding back during the regular season and letting his team mates get more involved. If you look at a game and analyze the number of players Kobe was involved in vs the number of plays Wade, Lebron, Paul are involved in, it wouldn’t even be close.
But in the end, If I could’ve convinced myself that the Lakers could’ve beaten the Cavaliers in the Finals, I would’ve gone with Kobe. I couldn’t. I think the Cavs just got screwed by a bad match up.

I see LA beating the Cavs in the Finals if they met. Denver was the 2nd best team in those playoffs to me, due to balance and star power. And LA had a tougher road to a title than Cleveland did, yet won it all with Kobe at 30/5/5 and stepping it up defensively. I'm still dissapointed that Bron did take on the challenge of guarding Lewis after all the DPOY hype.

I don't - and it has nothing to do with Kobe. I think the Lakers lucked out that they got to play another soft team in the Magic. Varejao and Big Ben would've neutered Gasol.

I would argue that neither Varejao, nor Big Ben could handle Gasol's length. I would also argue that neither the Jazz, Rockets, nor Nuggets frontline was soft, but very tough.

[Silver Bullet]

Wade has been winning the same low number of games for a number of years now, they've tried a variety of supporting casts.

Yeah -- a variety of crappy supporting casts. Saddling him with old-ass Jermaine O'Neal and the immature Michael Beasley isn't exactly calling in the calvary, in my opinion.

I guess I fall back on the same argument as LeBron last year, and Kobe in the years immediately following Shaq's trade -- what more can he do? It's not like he isn't a proven playoff performer.

But that's cool; I could never argue against Tim Duncan's inclusion on any top five list. Or Dirk Nowitzki, for that matter.

Well, I wanted to drop Howard, Paul and Wade - but there weren't that many suitable candidates. Nowitzki didn't win enough, KG got injured. Melo had Billups - Roy I thought about long and hard, but it's clear to me, he wasn't a better player than Wade that year.

I mean, Kobe won 45 in the West with a pathetic supporting cast. Look at it and tell me Wade has a worse supporting cast than that ? And playing in the East is an automatic 4 game penalty (at least) as far as I'm concerned.

What more can he do ? Well, he can stop hogging the ball so much and see if that works. I mean, him and Paul are 1 and 2 on the all time list in terms of usage stats.

[Silver Bullet]

I see LA beating the Cavs in the Finals if they met. Denver was the 2nd best team in those playoffs to me, due to balance and star power. And LA had a tougher road to a title than Cleveland did, yet won it all with Kobe at 30/5/5 and stepping it up defensively. I'm still dissapointed that Bron did take on the challenge of guarding Lewis after all the DPOY hype.

I don't - and it has nothing to do with Kobe. I think the Lakers lucked out that they got to play another soft team in the Magic. Varejao and Big Ben would've neutered Gasol.

I would argue that neither Varejao, nor Big Ben could handle Gasol's length. I would also argue that neither the Jazz, Rockets, nor Nuggets frontline was soft, but very tough.

haha, Unbiased fan, you almost have me convinced to change my vote and put KB at 1.

[Sedale Threatt]

Well, I wanted to drop Howard, Paul and Wade - but there weren't that many suitable candidates. Nowitzki didn't win enough, KG got injured. Melo had Billups - Roy I thought about long and hard, but it's clear to me, he wasn't a better player than Wade that year.

I mean, Kobe won 45 in the West with a pathetic supporting cast. Look at it and tell me Wade has a worse supporting cast than that ? And playing in the East is an automatic 4 game penalty (at least) as far as I'm concerned.

What more can he do ? Well, he can stop hogging the ball so much and see if that works. I mean, him and Paul are 1 and 2 on the all time list in terms of usage stats.

I'm just not a big fan of this argument.

Kobe hogged the hell out of the ball in 06, more than Wade ever has in a single season, and it's pretty clear why -- he had to, because his team completely sucked. I see Wade as being in pretty much the same situation, rolling out there with a bunch of retreads and underachievers.

Comparing the merits of Odom, Brown, Parker and Cook/Mihm with O'Neal, Arroyo/Chalmers, Richardson and Beasley is like comparing dog isht with horse isht. It's still isht, so is there really that big a difference?

I mean, it's not like Wade hasn't proven he can win with adequate help.

[Doctor MJ]

I mean, it's not like Wade hasn't proven he can win with adequate help.

My thoughts as well. A guy wins a title in clear superstar fashion, he then has a lesser supporting cast, puts up similar box score numbers and has huge +/-, there's nothing there that indicates that there's something wrong with what he's doing.

I'll also add that when Wade won the title, the team won 52 games, so being in the 40s isn't exactly a huge drop off.

[JordansBulls]

Whatever JB, you're agenda has been exposed pretty clearly. Don't take it personally - I'm not attacking you or trying to insult you - just pointing out that it's pretty clear to everybody what you're trying to do here.

And what is that?


I'll give another example:

2004 is the year that is going to be the toughest for me to decide on who was the best. Simply put because each of the top 4-5 players lost with HCA that season

Duncan
Garnett
Kobe
Shaq
Jermaine O'neal (finished 3rd in MVP Voting)

So in this case, since they are the only ones that merit consideration for being the best in the league that year, one of them will have to be chosen.


Simply put

There are only 3 ways to determine who the best player in the league is.

1) Winning a Title/Finals MVP as the best player on the team

2) Winning a League MVP or League MVP & DPOY or Finals MVP & DPOY

or

3) Having the Best Overall production Stats in the League (PER, Win Shares))

[sp6r=underrated]

JB

It doesn't make sense to me how you can vote for a guy as POY if you didn't feel he was the best player on his team during the RS that year. To expand on it, no one felt Gasol was a top 3 guy in the RS last year, and essentially everyone felt Lebron was # 1. Those comments that SB dug up, and there were many others that I remember reading last year of a similar type, clearly implied Gasol > Kobe in the RS.

I can understand how someone would view the PS as critical enough that they can be considered the best player on their team even if a teammate outplayed them in the RS. I can't see how Kobe leapfrogs Lebron when Lebron played great in the post-season as well. I have to conclude with the others your pro-MJ agenda dictated your vote and not honest analysis. Those comments are damming.

[Doctor MJ]

Alright, so my final vote:

1. LeBron
2. Kobe
3. Wade
4. Paul
5. Dwight

Thoughts on specific players:

LeBron - Simply put, I think he's a monster. I think with this year he emerged as the best player we've seen since peak Shaq. I'm certainly no Cleveland fan, but I find myself cheering for the Cavs no just because if LeBron wins a title I won't have to listen to people say "but he can't win the big one". To me that's just absurd. LeBron played out of his mind last playoffs, a clear step above what anyone else was capable of.

Kobe - Mamba was in a 3-way debate with Wade & Paul for me during the regular season. I was basically more impressed with Wade & Paul, but I always cut some slack to a guy who's leading a massively successful team. If you're not seeing a guy pushed to the limit, you're not seeing what he was capable of - and in Kobe's case, we knew what he was previously capable of. Come playoff time, he looked just as good as Wade, and obviously better than Paul, all while leading his team to the promised land. A very worth #2.

Wade - As I mentioned above, I see nothing negative about what Wade did. 2 other guys surpass him, that's all.

Paul - I was really frustrated by MVP lists in '09. People docked Paul for his team being worse than the previous year, nevermind that there were reasons for that, and that an objective look at Paul showed improvement over the previous year. His playoffs were a disappointment, no doubt, but I've seen enough of Paul not to judge his abilities just on that, and he was far enough above everyone else he didn't get surpassed.

Dwight - The toughest guy to rate. Part of me wants him at #3, part of me wants him out of the top 5. I'd have to say part of the reason he ends up in between is just that I still haven't totally made up my mind on him. To make it a little more objective though, Dwight gets hurt relative to the guys above him because the team does seem to carry on without Dwight being DWIGHT without major issue. With that said, he's the star of an elite team that upset Cleveland with Dwight having a clearly more impressive series than anything Dirk or anyone below him had - that's got to count for something (more than just "a little" something actually).

Honorable Mentions:

Dirk - You gotta give the man props. Dirk's developed a reputation for sucking in the playoffs while actually on averaging improving his stats, and pulling off some impressive upsets. The bad times aren't forgotten, but I've got no problem looking at Dirk as a full fledged superstar capable of leading a team to a title.

Roy - I don't think he's been mentioned in this thread. Guessing it's partly because his team got upset, but the man had a great year, and was totally solid in the post-season.

Billups - I do think it's overboard to put him in the top 5, but I also think you've got to give the man a lot of credit for coming in and improving a team that was considered MORE talented before his arrival.

Gasol - Impresses the hell out of me. The Triangle offense is great if the players get it, Gasol came in and grasped it immediately better than some players who had been in it for years.

<your Celtic here> - Garnett falls off, and the team is still elite. Pretty amazing.

[JordansBulls]

JB

It doesn't make sense to me how you can vote for a guy as POY if you didn't feel he was the best player on his team during the RS that year. To expand on it, no one felt Gasol was a top 3 guy in the RS last year, and essentially everyone felt Lebron was # 1. Those comments that SB dug up, and there were many others that I remember reading last year of a similar type, clearly implied Gasol > Kobe in the RS.

I can understand how someone would view the PS as critical enough that they can be considered the best player on their team even if a teammate outplayed them in the RS. I can't see how Kobe leapfrogs Lebron when Lebron played great in the post-season as well. I have to conclude with the others your pro-MJ agenda dictated your vote and not honest analysis. Those comments are damming.

Again, if I had an agenda towards Lebron I wouldn't had put him #1 in the 2007-2008 thread. I think it is quite clear how I evaluate players.

Here is what I do first.

1. Did a Top 5 player in the NBA, did they win MVP/Finals MVP that year? (If you get both the same year, IMO you are the top player with no questions asked)

2. How good were their numbers (did they led in PER, Win Shares, PPG, etc)

3. Did they lose with a superior record (HCA)?

There are only 3 ways to determine who the best player in the league is.

1) Winning a Title/Finals MVP as the best player on the team

2) Winning a League MVP/DPOY, etc

or

3) Having the Best Stats in the League (PER, Win Shares (Those are cumulative and based on all players production in the league))

[arkhimal]

I just had a little time this week, but i'll vote

1. LeBron James
2. Kobe Bryant
3. Dwyane Wade
4. Dwight Howard
5. Chris Paul

[Silver Bullet]

I mean, it's not like Wade hasn't proven he can win with adequate help.

My thoughts as well. A guy wins a title in clear superstar fashion, he then has a lesser supporting cast, puts up similar box score numbers and has huge +/-, there's nothing there that indicates that there's something wrong with what he's doing.

I'll also add that when Wade won the title, the team won 52 games, so being in the 40s isn't exactly a huge drop off.

Here is why I totally differ with you guys - you keep discounting Shaq's role in that title run - We saw a young Wade with a pretty decent supporting cast, and he was still winning the same number of games.

Let's look at the pivotal game 6, against the Pistons - Shaq put up 28 and 16 in that game on nearly 90% shooting. No way can Wade get that from any other center in the league. And no way Wade wins that game on 4-15 shooting for 14 points. Lose that game and you're in Detroit for Game 7, and you've just bid your season Goodbye.

In the pivotal Game 3, Shaq put up 27 and 12 on 73% and had the whole Detroit frontline in foul trouble -

In Miami losses that series, Shaq had 20 and 9 on 58% - In Miami wins he had 23 and 11.25 on 70% shooting.

Meanwhile in Miami losses Wade had 28, 5 and 5, in Miami wins, Wade had 26, 5 and 5.
Moreover, in Miami wins, Wade only took 13 shots compared to 17 shots in Miami losses.

So what does that tell you ?

It tells me, that they wouldn't have gotten past the Pistons without Shaq.

Moreover, they might not even have made it past the Bulls, without Shaq. In the pivotal Game 6, Shaq had 30 and 20 with 5 assists and 2 blocks. How many players in the league today, can put up that line ? I can't think of a single one.

Then what happened in the Finals.
Game 3 - Miami is down 2-0, looking at a 3-0 deficit -
8:36 left in the game, Heat are down 12 points, all the momentum is with Dallas, they have scored 6 straight points. Miami is struggling.
How do they get back in the game ?

Shaq draws a double, kicks it out to an open Jason Williams, who nails the three.
Next possession down, 7:28 - Shaq makes a layup.

2:49 left in the game - Dallas leads by 5 -
2:31 Wade misses 3
1:50 Williams misses 3, Shaq gets the offensive rebound, goes down to the free throw line, calmly sinks both free throws.

And then how did they win the game ? Most people just remember the Wade foul, but with the game tied 95-95, it was Payton who made the clutch jumper with 9 seconds left to put the Heat up by 2. Had they gone down 3-0, it would've been game over.

[Doctor MJ]

Silver, some of the things you're breaking down, I could do the same thing with Robert Horry. Shaq helped Wade get over the hump but when a former 30 point scorer is averaging 13 in the finals, he's not having superstar impact any more.

I'll also mention that while Miami upset Detroit in '06, they got upset by Detroit in '05. Shaq was helping the team, but this wasn't a case of Shaq-teams being much better in the post-season than in the regular season, one year it came together properly, one year it didn't.

I agree with you that Miami doesn't beat Detroit without Shaq, they also don't beat Detroit without Wade, and the inability to beat a very good Detroit team without a decent supporting cast does not damn a player as something less than a superstar.