RealGM Top 100 List #7

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#201 » by An Unbiased Fan » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:17 pm

shutupandjam wrote:Instead of attacking rapm, explain why Kobe's presence didn't make his teams' defenses better - was it a weird lineup phenomenon, was it a shifted team mentality, or something else? And, again, I'd still like to see evidence that Kobe was an elite defender other than his reputation and a few clips of him frustrating opponents on defense.

Kobe plays around 37 mins a game. So you're comparing 37 mins against 1st units(many of which next to guys like Fisher/Smush) to 9-10 mins of 2nd units playing each other, and then trying to extrapolate impact from that. You can't extract individual impact from lineup data, it's simply not possible. Even more, specialists who play a certain roles will be in lineups more favorable to their strengths(coaching 101), and will by default have higher rotational +/- numbers.

There is no "weird lineup phenomenon" causing the problem with RAPM, its the "normal lineup phenomenon" of having offensive minded lineup, defensive stop lineups, system dependent rotations, that cause the erratic lineup data. You can't turn lead into gold. RAPM is nothing but statistical alchemy.

Meanwhile, NBA coaches, scouts, players, GM, analysts, all have consistently praised Kobe's elite defense. Question....why do you believe Kobe's DRAPM, but not Divac's?? Should we believe Rashard was a better defender than the DPOY Dwight in 2009? How do we know when RAPM is right or not?

Like I said when RAPM first came up in the project, it's gonna take over things, and objective analysis will be pushed aside. And here we are.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#202 » by colts18 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:20 pm

GC Pantalones wrote:I'm not comparing Lebron to Bird though. I'll vote Lebron before Bird is up.
You did compare him to Bird. This is what you said:
Also be careful with comparing WS/48 because Lebron had less deep playoff runs than them in his early career.
Who is them? I'm pretty sure its Magic and Bird.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#203 » by colts18 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:23 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:Kobe plays around 37 mins a game. So you're comparing 37 mins against 1st units(many of which next to guys like Fisher/Smush) to 9-10 mins of 2nd units playing each other, and then trying to extrapolate impact from that. You can't extract individual impact from lineup data, it's simply not possible. Even more, specialists who play a certain roles will be in lineups more favorable to their strengths(coaching 101), and will by default have higher rotational +/- numbers.

There is no "weird lineup phenomenon" causing the problem with RAPM, its the "normal lineup phenomenon" of having offensive minded lineup, defensive stop lineups, system dependent rotations, that cause the erratic lineup data. You can't turn lead into gold. RAPM is nothing but statistical alchemy.

Meanwhile, NBA coaches, scouts, players, GM, analysts, all have consistently praised Kobe's elite defense. Question....why do you believe Kobe's DRAPM, but not Divac's?? Should we believe Rashard was a better defender than the DPOY Dwight in 2009? How do we know when RAPM is right or not?

Like I said when RAPM first came up in the project, it's gonna take over things, and objective analysis will be pushed aside. And here we are.


We already have evidence for Kobe's lack of impact defensively.

2000: He misses 16 games and the defense doesn't change at all. The defenses plays better in the minutes he misses than he plays.

2005 (Peak Kobe): last place defensively. Even though they were the worst defense, the defense played worse with him on the court

2006 (Peak Kobe): 15th in defense. Plays worse with him on the court

2007 (Peak Kobe): 24th in defense

2010: Defense plays better in the games he misses

2013: Defense plays much better in the games that Kobe misses

Aren't you the one who said that Kobe was still a good defender in 2013?

There is nothing that indicates Kobe is a good defender overall other than meaningless accolades.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#204 » by ardee » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:25 pm

colts18 wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:Kobe plays around 37 mins a game. So you're comparing 37 mins against 1st units(many of which next to guys like Fisher/Smush) to 9-10 mins of 2nd units playing each other, and then trying to extrapolate impact from that. You can't extract individual impact from lineup data, it's simply not possible. Even more, specialists who play a certain roles will be in lineups more favorable to their strengths(coaching 101), and will by default have higher rotational +/- numbers.

There is no "weird lineup phenomenon" causing the problem with RAPM, its the "normal lineup phenomenon" of having offensive minded lineup, defensive stop lineups, system dependent rotations, that cause the erratic lineup data. You can't turn lead into gold. RAPM is nothing but statistical alchemy.

Meanwhile, NBA coaches, scouts, players, GM, analysts, all have consistently praised Kobe's elite defense. Question....why do you believe Kobe's DRAPM, but not Divac's?? Should we believe Rashard was a better defender than the DPOY Dwight in 2009? How do we know when RAPM is right or not?

Like I said when RAPM first came up in the project, it's gonna take over things, and objective analysis will be pushed aside. And here we are.


We already have evidence for Kobe's lack of impact defensively.

2000: He misses 16 games and the defense doesn't change at all. The defenses plays better in the minutes he misses than he plays.

2005 (Peak Kobe): last place defensively. Even though they were the worst defense, the defense played worse with him on the court

2006 (Peak Kobe): 15th in defense. Plays worse with him on the court

2007 (Peak Kobe): 24th in defense

2010: Defense plays better in the games he misses

2013: Defense plays much better in the games that Kobe misses

Aren't you the one who said that Kobe was still a good defender in 2013?

There is nothing that indicates Kobe is a good defender overall other than meaningless accolades.


You're basically parroting the same thing.... Make an argument against Kobe's defense that doesn't use on-off or with-without.

These things focus on too much stuff that happens when Kobe was OFF the court, rather than what he was doing on it.

And anyone who's followed/watched basketball in the 2000s knows Kobe was contributing great defense ON the court from 2000-2004 and 2008-09, and still pretty good in 2006 and 2007. If people think Kobe got his last few All-D teams on reputation, where did that reputation come from? He had to have played elite D for a good stretch to at least build that reputation. And if you switch on any Laker game from the years I mentioned you'll see why.

Again, if you just want to go by On/Off and with-without there's plenty of things you need to accept to be consistent: James Harden as a net negative player overall in 2013, the Celtics offense being better without KG in 2008, Shaq being better than Wade in 2006...

Which we all know are not true. So if you're not going to accept those, then using those same criteria against Kobe is dishonest.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#205 » by E-Balla » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:35 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
Thanks for the reply-
okay - your % might be correct - when I think of finisher on 80s Lakers my brain goes to James Worthy.

Rebounding - must have looked at phone wrong sorry for the mistake- LBJ is better defensive rebounder, but Magic is ahead overall. 11.1% versus 10.8% is basically a push. (And LeBron is ahead in playoffs)

Passing - I think Bird made better passes and was more creative - my eyes tell me Bird. But I did check numbers, and LeBron has 34% assist vs 25% for Bird.

I really love LeBron being so productive at a high usage level. And he compares favorably in passing and rebounding to these 2 all-time greats, while being a better defender.

I also compare WS/48 for playoffs versus regular season -LeBron held his value in playoffs more than Bird or Magic.

I'm an old-timer, but I think the guy from this generation is better than two of the best from my generation.

I think Lebron did peak higher than them but for a while Lebron was putting up crazy numbers and wasn't on that top 10 all time level yet (think David Robinson. Great numbers but most don't have him top 20). I understand the argument for him but I rank players basically by how impressive they were and what they accomplished overall and Magic clearly accomplished more than Lebron in my eyes.

Also be careful with comparing WS/48 because Lebron had less deep playoff runs than them in his early career. I despise everything about WS (it's just a horrible stat) but that along with the whole defense thing could probably explain away Lebron's lead.


Thanks - I only use WS for very directional things - and usually only for the modern period, where it comes from to DeanO's rating. And usually just to point out average and below average players. Note I didn't say (or evaluate them) based on win shares or PER, etc.


Magic accomplished more, but had much more help than Bird or LeBron - he started with a 47 win team that included maybe the greatest player of all time (up to that point). And then a tremendous job of team building- Adding Worthy,McAddo,Thompson, trading Nixon for Scott.

I'm no sure if he had more help than Bird overall. Bird had amazingly strong teams from 81 about until he retired. He had better teams than Lebron though and that's where the analysis comes. I don't think rookie Lebron wins a ring in 80 for example. I can get the arguments for him but he's had less great postseason performances than great ones (4 great, 5 not so great) and compared to Magic (9 great, 3 not so great, 1 bad) he falls short IMO (and this is putting his MVP performance in 1980 in the not so great category - mainly because Kareem deserved it). He does beat out Bird (3 great, 4 not so great, 5 bad) as does Kobe (6 great, 3 not so great, 2 bad since 2000) which is why I'm selecting them over Bird.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#206 » by colts18 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:35 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:Kobe plays around 37 mins a game. So you're comparing 37 mins against 1st units(many of which next to guys like Fisher/Smush) to 9-10 mins of 2nd units playing each other, and then trying to extrapolate impact from that. You can't extract individual impact from lineup data, it's simply not possible. Even more, specialists who play a certain roles will be in lineups more favorable to their strengths(coaching 101), and will by default have higher rotational +/- numbers.


You have a fundamental misunderstanding of RAPM. The 9-10 minutes of the 2nd unit doesn't mean much. RAPM is comparing the 38 minutes that Kobe plays against what the average player would defensively against that lineup. We have a gigantic sample size for Kobe from 01-14 (~150K possessions) and nothing indicates he is a good defender.

Here is a 14 year RAPM (01-14) that includes the playoffs. To be fair to Kobe, I will only compare him to other star wings who played in a similar role to Kobe (offensive hub of team)

Defensive RAPM
George +2.8
LeBron +2.2
Pierce +2.2
Kidd +1.5
Carter +1.4
Westbrook +1.2
CP3 +0.8
T-Mac +0.5
Wade +0.4
Curry -0.2
Iverson -0.8
Kobe -0.9
Harden -1.0
Durant -1.2
Melo -1.5
Ray Allen -1.6
Deron Williams -2.3

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

Even when compared to similar perimeter players, he doesn't compare favorably on defense.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#207 » by E-Balla » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:37 pm

colts18 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:I'm not comparing Lebron to Bird though. I'll vote Lebron before Bird is up.
You did compare him to Bird. This is what you said:
Also be careful with comparing WS/48 because Lebron had less deep playoff runs than them in his early career.
Who is them? I'm pretty sure its Magic and Bird.

I was talking about Magic and he compared Lebron's winshares to Bird and Magic so I said be careful comparing him to them. I'm not arguing Bird over Lebron at all and until recently I was never high on Bird at all. I had both Oscar and Dr. J over him (I might vote for Oscar over Bird... we'll see).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#208 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:43 pm

GC Pantalones wrote:
colts18 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:I'm not comparing Lebron to Bird though. I'll vote Lebron before Bird is up.
You did compare him to Bird. This is what you said:
Also be careful with comparing WS/48 because Lebron had less deep playoff runs than them in his early career.
Who is them? I'm pretty sure its Magic and Bird.

I was talking about Magic and he compared Lebron's winshares to Bird and Magic so I said be careful comparing him to them. I'm not arguing Bird over Lebron at all and until recently I was never high on Bird at all. I had both Oscar and Dr. J over him (I might vote for Oscar over Bird... we'll see).


Doctor J over Bird ???? oh man -
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#209 » by E-Balla » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:44 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:I was talking about Magic and he compared Lebron's winshares to Bird and Magic so I said be careful comparing him to them. I'm not arguing Bird over Lebron at all and until recently I was never high on Bird at all. I had both Oscar and Dr. J over him (I might vote for Oscar over Bird... we'll see).


Doctor J over Bird ???? oh man -

:lol: HAD. I've seen the light since then. :lol:
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#210 » by shutupandjam » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:45 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
Meanwhile, NBA coaches, scouts, players, GM, analysts, all have consistently praised Kobe's elite defense.

Like I said when RAPM first came up in the project, it's gonna take over things, and objective analysis will be pushed aside. And here we are.


RAPM and other plus minus or on/off variations are by definition objective. Imperfect but objective. Peoples' opinions are subjective. The thing is, I'm ok with subjective evidence here....give me a scouting report or an in depth article discussing what specifically Kobe does defensively that makes him elite. Show me a possession by possession breakdown of his games where he is dominant defensively. But don't just say "Kobe played elite defense, end of story, trust me on this. RAPM is wrong because there are ridiculous results every year. I don't care about similar results over time, thousands of on/off possessions are completely useless."


An Unbiased Fan wrote:Question....why do you believe Kobe's DRAPM, but not Divac's??


I don't remember ever mentioning Divac.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#211 » by ronnymac2 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:52 pm

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon

Not sure how much time I'll have, so I'll place my vote now.

I'm voting for Hakeem because I believe he gives me the best chance to win more titles than any other player. His years from 1986-1990 to me show he was a legitimate championship piece on his teams. His 1990 season in my opinion is the greatest defensive season in NBA history not including Bill Russell, and he still gives you strong offense (more valuable offense if he were on a better offensive teams). I am convinced these years are the prime — not peak, but prime — years of a GOAT candidate. 1996 and 1997 are on par with 1986-1990. 1991-1992 are only slightly below that. And 1993-1995 are GOAT level peak years.

LeBron James from 2008-2014 gives me 7 years on par with Olajuwon's best (1989-1990, 1993-1997), MAYBE even better, but Hakeem gives me extra value in his other 5 years that LBJ's 2005-2007 can't overcome. I do believe LeBron James will end up surpassing Hakeem and Shaq within the next 2-3 seasons and perhaps even Michael Jordan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at some point thereafter. Right now, I can't put him the King over the Dream.

I have read some tremendous arguments for LeBron though. I actually thought about voting for James over O'Neal in the last thread and Olajuwon here.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#212 » by An Unbiased Fan » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:58 pm

colts18 wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:Kobe plays around 37 mins a game. So you're comparing 37 mins against 1st units(many of which next to guys like Fisher/Smush) to 9-10 mins of 2nd units playing each other, and then trying to extrapolate impact from that. You can't extract individual impact from lineup data, it's simply not possible. Even more, specialists who play a certain roles will be in lineups more favorable to their strengths(coaching 101), and will by default have higher rotational +/- numbers.


You have a fundamental misunderstanding of RAPM. The 9-10 minutes of the 2nd unit doesn't mean much. RAPM is comparing the 38 minutes that Kobe plays against what the average player would defensively against that lineup. We have a gigantic sample size for Kobe from 01-14 (~150K possessions) and nothing indicates he is a good defender.

Here is a 14 year RAPM (01-14) that includes the playoffs. To be fair to Kobe, I will only compare him to other star wings who played in a similar role to Kobe (offensive hub of team)

Defensive RAPM
George +2.8
LeBron +2.2
Pierce +2.2
Kidd +1.5
Carter +1.4
Westbrook +1.2
CP3 +0.8
T-Mac +0.5
Wade +0.4
Curry -0.2
Iverson -0.8
Kobe -0.9
Harden -1.0
Durant -1.2
Melo -1.5
Ray Allen -1.6
Deron Williams -2.3

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

Even when compared to similar perimeter players, he doesn't compare favorably on defense.

What part of lineup data are you missing? You can't extract individual numbers from lineup data, it's impossible. Doesn't matter what model you use, it's still not possible. You would need Synergy type data for that. The only thing you can gleen from the numbers are rotational trends. Players who trend to offensive rotations will be lower, and those who trend to defensive rotations will look better. team systems compound the effect even further.

2012 NPI RAPM defensive ratings
Tony Parker 1.3
Vince Carter 1.2
Curry 1.1
Bledsoe 1.1
Chalmers 0.9
Jeremy Lin 0.7
Pargo 0.7
Fisher 0.6
Lebron 0.6
^
This is how absurd raw RAPM is. The very nature of the stat has no bearing on the individual, ONLY the rotations he's involved with.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#213 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 7:58 pm

GC Pantalones wrote:I'm no sure if he (MAGIC) had more help than Bird overall. Bird had amazingly strong teams from 81 about until he retired. He had better teams than Lebron though and that's where the analysis comes. I don't think rookie Lebron wins a ring in 80 for example. I can get the arguments for him but he's had less great postseason performances than great ones (4 great, 5 not so great) and compared to Magic (9 great, 3 not so great, 1 bad) he falls short IMO (and this is putting his MVP performance in 1980 in the not so great category - mainly because Kareem deserved it). He does beat out Bird (3 great, 4 not so great, 5 bad) as does Kobe (6 great, 3 not so great, 2 bad since 2000) which is why I'm selecting them over Bird.


Actually 80-82 Lakers,Sixers,Celtics even,
83 Moses to Sixers - but 84-86 Lakers and Celtics put into next gear and pass Sixers.
So 80-86 Lakers and Celtics are even, then Lakers put it into another gear.


In 1987 4 of the Top 6 Lakers are younger than the youngest of the Top 6 Celtics - Ainge - the Lakers have 4 of top 6 27 or younger; the Celtics have McHale at 29 2nd youngest of top 6.


87 and 88 Celts lose Walton and have no bench - Lakers add Thompson; AC Green improves
89 gain Reggie Lewis, but other Celtics aging Bird basically non-factor- Kareem aging, but Worthy,Scott improving
90 Add Divac
91 Add Perkins
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#214 » by ardee » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:00 pm

colts18 wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:Kobe plays around 37 mins a game. So you're comparing 37 mins against 1st units(many of which next to guys like Fisher/Smush) to 9-10 mins of 2nd units playing each other, and then trying to extrapolate impact from that. You can't extract individual impact from lineup data, it's simply not possible. Even more, specialists who play a certain roles will be in lineups more favorable to their strengths(coaching 101), and will by default have higher rotational +/- numbers.


You have a fundamental misunderstanding of RAPM. The 9-10 minutes of the 2nd unit doesn't mean much. RAPM is comparing the 38 minutes that Kobe plays against what the average player would defensively against that lineup. We have a gigantic sample size for Kobe from 01-14 (~150K possessions) and nothing indicates he is a good defender.

Here is a 14 year RAPM (01-14) that includes the playoffs. To be fair to Kobe, I will only compare him to other star wings who played in a similar role to Kobe (offensive hub of team)

Defensive RAPM
George +2.8
LeBron +2.2
Pierce +2.2
Kidd +1.5
Carter +1.4
Westbrook +1.2
CP3 +0.8
T-Mac +0.5
Wade +0.4
Curry -0.2
Iverson -0.8
Kobe -0.9
Harden -1.0
Durant -1.2
Melo -1.5
Ray Allen -1.6
Deron Williams -2.3

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

Even when compared to similar perimeter players, he doesn't compare favorably on defense.


Look at that list man. Do you honestly believe it?

Leave alone Kobe. Carter a better defender than Wade? Curry better than Durant?

The full list has Amir Johnson over Shaq.... I think that says it all.

Using RAPM in any kind of serious analysis is a joke.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#215 » by Reservoirdawgs » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:02 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
And like I asked in the previous post, isn't leading a quality cast deep a more important factor? Because Kobe with a decent cast has had far more success.


With a decent cast (the Miami Heat) Lebron James has accomplished more while performing at a higher level than Kobe. I'm going to compare the 2008-11 Lakers to the 2011-14 Heat in the postseason (since, for some reason we are only taking the postseason into account).

Lebron James (2011-14 Postseason, 87 games, 3628 minutes)
PER: 28.2
TS%: .595
eFG%: .541
TRB%: 12.6
AST%: 28.1
ORtg: 117

Kobe Bryant (2008-11 Postseason, 77 games, 3080 minutes)
PER: 24.3
TS%: .561
eFG%: .498
TRB%: 7.6
AST%: 24.5
ORtg: 112.5

In that time, the Heat went to 4 straight Finals and won two of them. In the time period that the Kobe was the #1 option on the Lakers over four years, they went to three straight Finals and won two of them.

But that was the playoffs in total...what if we just isolate their Finals performances (and to make things fair, I am just going to use their first three Finals appearances...meaning, I'm not going to include Lebron's 2014 Finals, which was at a level that Kobe is just not capable of doing).

Kobe Bryant (18 games, 765 minutes):
TS%: 52.1
eFG%: 45.4
TRB%: 8.8
AST%: 26.3
ORtg: 105.7

Lebron James (18 games, 783 minutes):
TS%: 53.6
eFG%: 49.5
TRB%: 13.3
AST%: 29.8
ORtg: 110.8

I could get into much more context-based stuff as well (how Lebron has had to deal with a worse coach and how his teammates were either injured or just outright putrid like Wade for the 2012 and 2013 Finals and yet they won, or Kobe needing his teammates to pick up the slack in all of Game 7 and needing Perkins to get injured for Games 6-7 so the Lakers could win) but I'll leave it where it is for now. How is 2-1 better success than 2-2? Particularly when Kobe had the better teammates during that time?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#216 » by E-Balla » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:06 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:I'm no sure if he (MAGIC) had more help than Bird overall. Bird had amazingly strong teams from 81 about until he retired. He had better teams than Lebron though and that's where the analysis comes. I don't think rookie Lebron wins a ring in 80 for example. I can get the arguments for him but he's had less great postseason performances than great ones (4 great, 5 not so great) and compared to Magic (9 great, 3 not so great, 1 bad) he falls short IMO (and this is putting his MVP performance in 1980 in the not so great category - mainly because Kareem deserved it). He does beat out Bird (3 great, 4 not so great, 5 bad) as does Kobe (6 great, 3 not so great, 2 bad since 2000) which is why I'm selecting them over Bird.


Actually 80-82 Lakers,Sixers,Celtics even,
83 Moses to Sixers - but 84-86 Lakers and Celtics put into next gear and pass Sixers.
So 80-86 Lakers and Celtics are even, then Lakers put it into another gear.


In 1987 4 of the Top 6 Lakers are younger than the youngest of the Top 6 Celtics - Ainge - the Lakers have 4 of top 6 27 or younger; the Celtics have McHale at 29 2nd youngest of top 6.


87 and 88 Celts lose Walton and have no bench - Lakers add Thompson; AC Green improves
89 gain Reggie Lewis, but other Celtics aging Bird basically non-factor- Kareem aging, but Worthy,Scott improving
90 Add Divac
91 Add Perkins

Well I was talking about when both of them were good (pre back injury). From 80-87 their supporting casts were about even and Magic won more 4-3 and Magic usually outperformed Bird head to head in the postseason which is why I give Magic the edge.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#217 » by Reservoirdawgs » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:08 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
Meanwhile, NBA coaches, scouts, players, GM, analysts, all have consistently praised Kobe's elite defense.


Is this the road you really want to go down? Otherwise Lebron's 4 MVPs to Kobe's contested 1 MVP pretty much seals the deal Lebron being a much better player than Kobe and this entire point is moot. In his first eleven seasons, Lebron's MVP award shares completely blow Kobe out of the water.

All objective measures we have support Kobe being a poor defender. The eye test supports that Kobe, for a career, is a very poor defender and is in no shape or form a two-way player. That doesn't have to be terrible...Magic was a terrible defender but his unbelievable offensive prowess makes up for it in some way. But if you have some proof that shows that Kobe is an elite defender despite all objective measures saying otherwise then I would love to see it.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#218 » by colts18 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:10 pm

ardee wrote:
Look at that list man. Do you honestly believe it?

Leave alone Kobe. Carter a better defender than Wade? Curry better than Durant?

The full list has Amir Johnson over Shaq.... I think that says it all.

Using RAPM in any kind of serious analysis is a joke.


Vince Carter was very underrated defensively. I see no reason why he couldn't ahead of Wade. Wade has declined a bit defensively over the past few years.

Durant is held back by his awful first 2 years. Durant didn't back a good defender until like 2 years ago. Before that he was awful.

Amir Johnson is ahead of Shaq because Shaq has 2007-2011 holding him down.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#219 » by colts18 » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:16 pm

ardee wrote:
Look at that list man. Do you honestly believe it?

Leave alone Kobe. Carter a better defender than Wade? Curry better than Durant?

The full list has Amir Johnson over Shaq.... I think that says it all.

Using RAPM in any kind of serious analysis is a joke.


Vince Carter has 126,000 possessions since 2001. Wade has 98,000. What % of those possessions have you watched? How can you objectively say one is the better defender than the other when you probably watched like maybe 1% of those possessions intensely.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #7 

Post#220 » by E-Balla » Tue Jul 15, 2014 8:17 pm

Reservoirdawgs wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:
And like I asked in the previous post, isn't leading a quality cast deep a more important factor? Because Kobe with a decent cast has had far more success.


With a decent cast (the Miami Heat) Lebron James has accomplished more while performing at a higher level than Kobe. I'm going to compare the 2008-11 Lakers to the 2011-14 Heat in the postseason (since, for some reason we are only taking the postseason into account).

Lebron James (2011-14 Postseason, 87 games, 3628 minutes)
PER: 28.2
TS%: .595
eFG%: .541
TRB%: 12.6
AST%: 28.1
ORtg: 117

Kobe Bryant (2008-11 Postseason, 77 games, 3080 minutes)
PER: 24.3
TS%: .561
eFG%: .498
TRB%: 7.6
AST%: 24.5
ORtg: 112.5

In that time, the Heat went to 4 straight Finals and won two of them. In the time period that the Kobe was the #1 option on the Lakers over four years, they went to three straight Finals and won two of them.

But that was the playoffs in total...what if we just isolate their Finals performances (and to make things fair, I am just going to use their first three Finals appearances...meaning, I'm not going to include Lebron's 2014 Finals, which was at a level that Kobe is just not capable of doing).

Kobe Bryant (18 games, 765 minutes):
TS%: 52.1
eFG%: 45.4
TRB%: 8.8
AST%: 26.3
ORtg: 105.7

Lebron James (18 games, 783 minutes):
TS%: 53.6
eFG%: 49.5
TRB%: 13.3
AST%: 29.8
ORtg: 110.8

I could get into much more context-based stuff as well (how Lebron has had to deal with a worse coach and how his teammates were either injured or just outright putrid like Wade for the 2012 and 2013 Finals and yet they won, or Kobe needing his teammates to pick up the slack in all of Game 7 and needing Perkins to get injured for Games 6-7 so the Lakers could win) but I'll leave it where it is for now. How is 2-1 better success than 2-2? Particularly when Kobe had the better teammates during that time?

Don't bring up the context based stuff and not include the quality of their opponents (Kobe playing the best defense in the last 10 years in 08, the top ranked defense in 09, and the best defensive team in 2010), or the fact that 2011 was the first year Kobe looked old (Phil even scaled back his minutes Tim Duncan style).

I will say that Kobe was 29-31 those years and that young Kobe (just like young Lebron) probably wouldn't lead that same cast to success. In this situation it's easy to give Lebron a pass for 2011 because young Kobe was completely immature and I think he hurt his teams with his actions off the court sometimes.

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