RealGM Top 100 List #12

[Narigo]

This is a tough decision. Between, Oscar, West, Kobe and Erving, I decided to vote for Robertson. He is the one of best offensive players in history. He is extremely efficient for his time period. Oscar had a good post game using his strength and size as an advantage. He also had a good mid-range shot and was great at the pick and roll.

Oscar’s impact was huge. He led the Royals to a top ranked offense in the league almost every single year in the 60s. Oscar arguably has a top 10 peak. Some people on this forum think Russell and Wilt peaked in 1964 but Oscar that year won MVP over both of them. He then gets traded to Milwaukee and co-anchored one of the best offenses in league history.

Unfortunately for him, the Royals made terrible decisions throughout Oscar’s tenure there. He never had a championship level cast around him until he went to Milwaukee to play with Kareem Abdul Jabbar.

Vote Oscar Robertson

[The Infamous1]

Among the guards that are serious contenders, the battle that has been fought out many times is Oscar v. the Logo. Oscar has the accolades and statistical edge mainly in assists and rebounds, he was also more durable. West has the team success, defense, and intangibles -- Oscar may or may not have been a good leader and locker room bonus; West was absolutely one. West's missed games didn't cause his team to miss a lot of playoff wins (sort of like Shaq, he tended to play at the end of the season). I just have to accept my winner's bias because I just was always more impressed with Jerry West.

West v. Kobe is tougher. I think the 60s were as tough an era to play in as the 00s; I think West was clearly a better teammate and classier act than Kobe as well. What is Kobe's advantage? He is a bit more of a volume scorer when you adjust for pace; but less efficient relevant to league average. He has a durability advantage as well, particularly since he has the extra years for coming in out of HS as opposed to West being barred from the NBA until his senior year was finished. I give Kobe major props for the Gasol/Odom teams winning rings but West made all those finals without a center appreciably better than Ray Krebs until 69 (though Rudy LaRusso was an underrated stretch 4) and without great coaches. So can't really give Kobe the advantage on team success either. So, it's close (Kobe over Oscar btw), and I go to tiebreaker . . . who would I rather have on my team to win championships. I think West is just able to win more rings for a championship talent team due to his varied skill set and outstanding personal characteristics.

So, of all the guards, I vote Jerry West.

Of the bigs, David Robinson is clearly the best . . . when healthy. Heck, until that one playoff series, he was considered better than Hakeem, beating him in head to head with equally bad teams about 75% of the time with equivalent numbers and, again, less complaining to the press and about teammates. However, his injury leaves him short on duration as a great relative to many of the others here.

Karl had more impressive numbers than Moses and was a top tier player longer. If I want to win rings, though, I think DRob still gives me more rings than Karl as great as Karl was. Pettit relative to his league comes across as similar to Karl Malone. For 10 years he was, quite simply, the best forward in the game with only Baylor as competition. Relative to Baylor, I rate Pettit higher -- his numbers are stronger against his leagues to a large degree because he started earlier and posted dominance in the 50s. When things changed drastically, in a large part because of Baylor (and the big 4 of Russell, Wilt, West, and Oscar) coming into the league, Pettit still managed to keep his status as the best forward in the league. HIs shooting percentages weren't great but he makes up for that with his ability to take bigger men outside and draw fouls inside. He's the NBA's all time leader in FT made per game so his TS% is appreciably higher than his FG%. He's also 3rd all-time in rebounds per game and although that stat is heavily era weighted, he was certainly Karl Malone like dominant in points and rebounds; unlike Karl, he rescued his sometimes questionable clutch reputation with probably the all-time greatest 4th quarter in NBA history; winning a ring and dominating the Celtics although Russell was out. Dirk gets a mention here too, though his defense seems a bit behind the likes of Karl Malone and Bob Pettit; still his ability to get his shot outside at 6-11 is unique and an incredible weapon the equivalent of Kareem's skyhook.

Barkley doesn't match up; his offensive numbers do, particularly his playoff numbers, but Barkley with his matador defense and screw around attitude is less than the sum of his numbers. He was unable to win with talent as a youngster in Philly, unable to win with Kevin Johnson and co. in Phoenix; while its not just about the rings, Barkley is one of those players whose teams don't measure up to what you would expect if he is Karl Malone/Bob Pettit/Dirk level. As for Walton, he gives you 1 season to suddenly build a team and catch lightning in a bottle. In the great peaks project, Walton is certainly top 10 . . . but 1 season is it. He never made it to the playoffs again as a star, only making it once as a hobbling reserve -- still talented enough to get SMOY but I would guess that in the chance to win a title metric, his one season chance gets surpassed by appreciably smaller chances of a LOT of players when aggregated over 10+ years.

So, David Robinson, the defensive anchor with a great offensive game but a relatively short run as a GOAT level player (and hurt by extremely weak teams around him during that span, similar to Hakeem). Jerry West, a player who did everything extremely well and was Mr. Clutch in the playoffs although not able to overcome the GOAT winner and dynasty in Boston. Or, Julius Erving . . . the man who carried an entire league on his back for 3-4 years, another truly great player with few real weaknesses.

Tough call, I will cast my vote for JERRY WEST

But the west in the 00's was significantly better than the west in the 60's. Plus jerry had Elgin Baylor who is better than anyone kobe had post shaq and of course wilt chamberlain

[ShaqAttack3234]

I don't think you can just airily dismiss accolades. 3 MVP's in 5 years is pretty dominant.

In terms of statistics (especially in the playoffs), Moses is comparable to DRob: http://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/m/moses_malone_vs_david_robinson.htm

Moses is not a non-entity on defense either, make 2 All-Defense teams. In this regard, he is similar to Shaq: super offense, good defense.

Also it's not just individual accolades for Moses. He went the Finals twice, beating the defending champion Lakers both times. (This is similar to Dirk 2011.)

I don't think it's too early to discuss Moses, especially since Karl Malone who was never as dominant as Moses is getting so much support, but I'd add a few things. Moses wasn't either the offensive player or defensive player Shaq was. Malone's Rockets were always bad defensive teams and a few times, among the 2 worst defensive teams in the league. Plus, as far as beating the defending champion Lakers twice, well, '83 is legit even with Worthy's injury because Malone and the Sixers dominated the series, but I have to mention that they barely got by the Lakers in 1981 in a best of 3 mini-series, so that's not the same thing as a longer series. I don't read too much into those best of 3 series and am thankful they did away with them a long time ago.

[therealbig3]

With KG in already, the post I was planning to make about his playoff offense is now moot, so I'll deal with that another time.

For me, the next spot then becomes a toss up between Kobe, the Mailman, Doctor J, Oscar, West and David Robinson. It's a bit too early for legit consideration of Moses, despite his individual accolades, and I'm not quite ready to vote for Nash this high. There are a bunch of players all clumped together in this range, and surely there are arguments for many, but on those players, I'm presently focused.

Hmmm. No vote yet, just pondering and reading.

I'm curious, where do you see Dirk?

And I'll ask you from the viewpoint of two different criteria: where do you see him based on accolades/team success, and where do you see him purely as an individual player (including how you balance his peak, prime, and longevity)?

[drza]

Dirk vs Kobe

In the vein of the 1-on-1 matchups I described yesterday, I decided to start with the two best current/modern day players still on the board: Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant. This is a very interesting, potentially epic comparison, that in my experience pretty much never gets made (not including this project, of course, where Reservoir Dogs has taken a crack at it). But outside of here, there are a million Kobe threads and Dirk is pretty popular on this board too, but rarely (if ever) do I see Dirk vs. Kobe. I think part of that is due to perception...before 2011 it was considered ridiculous around here to put Dirk on Kobe's level (I remember ranking 2003 Dirk over 2003 Kobe in the 2010 RPoY project, and it was NOT well received). After 2011 people felt better about giving Dirk his due, but he generally gets compared with great frontcourt players. When in reality, I think he and Kobe make one heck of a match-up. So, let's start digging in and see where it goes.

The boxscores

Regular season, 10 year primes per100 possessions
Kobe Bryant (2001 - 2010): 37.5 pts (55.9% TS), 7.6 reb, 6.9 ast, 4.1 TO
Dirk Nowitzki (2002 - 2011): 34.5 pts (58.4% TS), 12.3 reb, 4 ast, 2.8 TO

Playoffs, 10 year primes per 100 possessions
Kobe Bryant (2001 - 2010): 35.8 pts (54.8%), 7.1 reb, 6.7 ast, 4.0 TO
Dirk Nowitzki (2002 - 2011): 33.4 pts (58.5%), 13.5 reb, 3.5 ast, 3.0 TO

I often like to start with the box score stats (regular and postseason) just to get some baseline information out there to look at. Most of us watched both of these careers play out, so we all have images in our heads of what these two can do. But the numbers help to firm up the impressions, and really quantify those contributions. The per-100 numbers aren't so necessary for two players in the modern era, but for this project I like to use per 100 for everyone for a bit of cross-era normalization.

Anyway, the story is similar in both the regular and postseason. Kobe scores on slightly more volume, with Dirk at better efficiency (but both look really impressive in both). Kobe is more of a playmaker, while Dirk is stronger on the glass as you'd expect for a big (though again, it's clear that each contributes in the opposite category as well, for their position). From these numbers I don't think anyone could really get a feel for who was better, but both look extremely elite for a long period.

"The style makes the fight"

Both Kobe and Dirk evolved stylistically over time, going from extremely raw (Kobe entered the NBA as a teenager out of high school, Dirk entered the NBA as a teenager from Europe) to extraordinarily polished. Very good arguments can be made that Dirk and Kobe are the two most skilled offensive players of this generation, mixing technique and precision in with physical attributes that already made them mismatches.

They are also two of the most unique talents that the NBA has seen. I think people recognize the uniqueness of Dirk, but maybe don't always see it in Kobe because he (seemingly deliberately) reminds people so much of Jordan. But ironically, despite his resemblance to his Airness, Kobe is still extremely rare. People forget that before Jordan a shooting guard that was 6-6 or 6-7 and uber athletic was extremely rare. After Jordan it became more of the goal (because everyone wanted to be the next Jordan), but for the most part these bigger 2s handled the ball more like 3s. Kobe, on the other hand, could control his dribble and direct the offense almost like a combo guard...only most combo guards are 3 or 4 inches shorter. Then, while Jordan was always a slasher first-and-foremost (and then later in his career became more of a post threat as his athleticism waned), Kobe always seemed more comfortable operating from the outside-in. He had the high-flying athleticism (and later the strength/footwork to be a great post threat on offense), but his long-range was always more natural than Jordan's and it was a larger staple of his scoring. This played a part in what has been both a boon and a bane for Kobe...he could always get a shot that he was comfortable with from the perimeter, no matter how he was defended. As such, he is one of the best difficult-shot-makers that I've ever seen. That sometimes tempts him to take a lower percentage shot when a higher percentage look (for himself or a teammate) was available, but on the flip-side it makes him a higher-than-expected percentage threat when the offense breaks down and he has to make something happen alone.

And then there's Dirk. No one has ever seen a 7-footer that is such a natural, effortless, pure scorer from the perimeter. He has the jumper of an elite shooting guard, and the ball-handling and court vision of a reasonable small forward. Put those things together, and it is extremely difficult to match up with him. Up through his MVP season the conventional wisdom used to be that he was too good on the perimeter to be defended by a big man, but that he was too tall to be defended by a wing. For the most part this was true, which is why he was receiving All NBA nods early in the decade and rose to MVP status by 2007. However, he had the misfortune in his MVP season of running into the one coach that knew his tendencies well enough (former coach Nelson) and also had a long wing that could play 1-on-1 defense (in Stephen Jackson) that, in conjunction with other factors, allowed a #8 seed to defeat Dirk's #1 Mavs. That series played a big part in Dirk's perception as a so-called "failure" for a long time...but it seemingly had the hidden benefit of getting Dirk to focus more on his post-game. Once he mastered that and added it to his other offensive talents, Dirk became nigh unguardable 1-on-1. Which is why many consider 2011 his absolute peak, despite his MVP and most impressive box score exploits coming 4 or 5 years earlier. Plus, because Dirk IS 7-0 tall, he brings a dimension of spacing/defensive warpage that even exceeds his own scoring. This is part of why his impact shows up so well in +/- studies, even better than his boxscore numbers might suggest. Having a 7-footer that can dominate a game from the perimeter, demanding not only a big man to leave the paint (weakening opposing defenses) but often a double if he stepped inside the arc, is arguably the biggest warping effect you can have (which is why I tend to believe his offensive impact might be pretty close to what a modern Bird would have been, despite Bird's much better passing, because Bird is 3 inches shorter and height really matters for this effect).

Chronology and the story outside of the box scores: the infamous RAPM

RAPM has gotten a lot of attention thus far in the project (understatement alert), but here the RAPM scores over time help to really tell the story of how Dirk's and Kobe's impacts have changed over time as their roles have changed and their games have developed. It's unfortunate that we don't have RAPM data for 2001 and that 2002 is only partial season data as well, because that was an important time period, but we have enough data to work with that I feel like I have a handle on what the missing/partial data may have said anyway. Again, the RAPM numbers reported are from Doc MJ's normalized PI RAPM spreadsheet from 1998 - 2012.

Late 90s Kobe and Dirk didn't really move the needle much (RAPM values right around 0). Dirk scored a slight positive RAPM in 2000 (+2.3), and in the partial 2002 his RAPM was still at a similar place (+2.6). Kobe, on the other hand, went from a mark of +0.7 in 2000 to a +4.9 in the partial 2002, then he just about replicated that score in 2003 (+5.5). It is pretty universally agreed upon that Kobe took a major step forward in impact in 2001, so I'd guess that his 2001 score probably looks similar to/better than his 2002 and 2003 scorers. So, much as the impressions of the time would have suggested, Kobe took the leap towards stardom a bit before Dirk.

However, in 2003 Dirk's RAPM scores surpassed Kobe's to date (Dirk's score jumped to +7.3 in 2003, an elite amount of team lift) and he maintained that mark like a metronome for the next six years (RAPM between +7.2 and +8.0 every year between 2003 and 2008). What's really interesting about Dirk's flat-line major impact is that so much was changing around him. 2003 was the peak of Nellie-ball (where the Mavs had a legit title shot if Dirk doesn't go down to injury against the Spurs) with Nash and Finley as side-kicks, while by 2008 Dirk had won an MVP and come within a breath of another possible championship in a team with a more defensive philosophy with Coach Avery Johnson and side-kicks Josh Howard and Jason Terry. The situations were dramatically different, the team philosophy at the opposite end of the spectrum, but Dirk's impact remained rock solid at a level worthy of a reasonable MVP.

Kobe, meanwhile, was entering the most volatile period of his career both on- and off- the court. For the 2004 season the Lakers brought in the aged Karl Malone and Gary Payton to supplement Kobe and Shaq in a posited super-team, and of course Kobe had his incident in Colorado that had to deal with over the course of that season. This was also the peak of the unfortunately public Shaq and Kobe feud, and after the 2004 season we saw Shaq (and Phil Jackson, and Malone, and Payton) leave town. The Lakers (and Kobe) both had their worst season of the decade to date. With all of this going on, it doesn't surprise me that Kobe's RAPM values reached the lowest point of the decade in these two years (average of about +1.5).

However, in 2006 Kobe returned renewed (after his first major injury and the Lakers missing the playoffs in 2005), and Coach Jackson also came back to town. Kobe was soon to turn in an offensive season for the ages in 2006, and this touched off his own metronomic high-impact stretch in which he registered RAPM values between +6.4 and +8.1 every year between 2006 and 2010. This time period, of course, saw Kobe win his only career MVP as well as his first two Finals MVPs. For those that had questions as to whether Kobe could really be a megastar and lead a team to the promised land without Shaq, all of those questions were answered emphatically 'yes!' during this stretch.

Back to Dirk. After 2008 coach Johnson was out, to be replaced by Rick Carlisle. Carlisle was a defensive coach like Johnson, but by all accounts he was a better tactician and planner. While the Mavs continued to have 50+ win seasons in '09 and '10, they weren't really championship contenders. And while Dirk continued to measure out with really good RAPM scores (+5.3 and +4.9), it was a step down from his Groundhog Day-like +7.5s through the middle of the decade. Seemingly it took those couple of years for Dirk to perfect the post-game that I mentioned above, for the Mavs to build a team that complimented him fully while also fitting Carlisle's schemes, and for Carlisle to perfect the way that he wanted to use him. But it all came together in 2011, when the Mavs put on the floor a defensive-minded squad with tough, battle-tested vets at every position that were really strong and their complemntary roles. But a squad that would have been awful without an offensive engine...and it just so happens that the Mavs had one of the best offensive engines of all-time on their squad. Everyone knows that Dirk led the Mavs to the title in one of the more storied "superstar without big name help" runs that we've seen. But RAPM also recognized the incredible lift that Dirk was providing to those teams, as his +11.5 normalized RAPM in 2011 marked a career-high for Dirk and entered him into the pantheon of the top-10 highest RAPM scores measured since 1998.

The playoffs

Dirk and Kobe both have reputations for performing on the big stage. There have been box score numerical analyses done in this project to either argue for or against Kobe's performance based on scoring efficiency, and those arguments are worth absorbing and filtering. Kobe apparently did have some efficiency blips through the years against good defenses, which we didn't see with Dirk (who maintains an absurd volume/efficiency ratio from the regular season right into the postseason). I don't really think that individual scoring efficiency is nearly as important as many make it out to be, but for players that are primarily offensive and more specifically primarily scorers, scoring efficiency has to at least be considered. On the other hand, Kobe has also faced off against some of the best defenses in history throughout his time, and that can certainly affect the old true shooting percentage.

(Aside on playoff on/off +/-)

Spoiler:

One thing that I like to look at when available (but which is considered controversial as a quantitative tool) is the postseason on/off +/- scorers. There was a time (not that long ago) when on/off +/- was the state of the art for "impact" studies, before APM came into being. There are obvious issues with on/off +/- that led to developing APM, such as the potential for big teammate effects, level of competition effects (e.g. there's no correction for playing against a starting unit or back-ups), and skews due to back-up quality or even rotations (shout out to Unbiased Fan). These issues are exacerbated in the postseason, as many stars rarely leave the court and the sample sizes can get vanishingly small.

I'm aware of these issues, but I'm also convinced that in long playoff runs in a given season (e.g. conference finals or beyond) or multi-year samples we can get large enough samples to be able to get some useful information. I tend to find that really high on/off +/- values over runs or periods help indicate heavy lifting, whereas really negative marks over extended periods don't indicate negatives so much as a lack of a positive drive. Also, I'm less impressed with entire units having high on/off scores (usually indicates a strong unit more-so than a strong individual) but I note when a star puts up a huge number on an island. Reminder: B-R only has this data from 2001 to present.

Examples of some of the best single-season postseason on/off +/- championship runs:
LeBron '12: +24.3 per 100 possessions (he also went +24.2 in his 2007 Finals run)
Duncan '03: ++23.1 per 100 possessions
Shaq 2002: +22.9 per 100 (also went +25.3 during 2004 Finals run)
Wade 2006: +22.2 per 100

Famous counter-intuitive counter-examples:
LeBron '11: -14.7 per 100
Dwight '09: -12.7
Duncan '05: -5.3

Examples of some of the best 3 - 4 year stretches of postseason on/off +/-
Duncan 01 - 03: +27.4
Manu 03 - 06: +21.6 (caveat: came off bench in 44/70 games)
Shaq 02 - 04: +21.5
LeBron 07 - 10: +20.4

Examples of some of the best career +/- scores (from 2001 - 2014)
Manu Ginobili +11.2 (caveat: 128/180 games off the bench)
Jason Kidd +10.2 (+10.2 in Jersey, +14.9 in Dallas, negative else)
Duncan +8.9
Shaq +8.6 (+16.3 in LA, -6.4 in Miamii, negative else)
LeBron +8.1 (+12.3 in Cleveland, +4.6 in Miami)

Interestingly, for those that give any credence at all to playoff on/off +/-, it's Kobe (even with his lower scoring efficiencies) that tends to look more impressive than Dirk. Dirk's best postseason mark of his career (obviously) came in 2011 with an impressive +16.8 per 100 possessions, and this capped off a run of three positive double-digit marks in four years (thought the first two were for relatively short runs and thus I give them next-to-no weight as single seasons). However, outside of that period his playoff on/offs are pretty pedestrian compared to the other greats of this generation. He was +6.9 in the 2006 run, but pretty meh else for a career playoff on/off mark (from 2001 - 2014) of +1.8.

Kobe measured out with a positive playoff on/off +/- in every playoff run of his career (at least since 2001) in which his team made at least the 2nd round. His best career mark came in 2003 (+17.4), but he was also really strong in 2001 (+14.2 vs. Shaq's -0.3, lending credence to those that say that Kobe was driving the bus for that postseason run) and 2009 (+12.4 vs Pau's +6.8, though Odom measured out best at +16.7). Kobe was also +8.9 in 2008 and +7.6 in 2010, and sports a career-mark of +8.3 that's right in line with Shaq, Duncan and LeBron.

Bottom line:

As I figured before I got started, this is an epic comparison. It's almost a toss-up, a "what do you like"? Stylistically, in the box scores, and in the +/- stats for both the regular and postseason it's hard to find a consistent advantage for either of them. I hope and expect that their placements on this list should reflect that similarity, regardless of which goes in first.

[semi-sentient]

And no one's made any good responses to Kobe's horrible stats versus good defenses yet. I'm still waiting.

I wasn't aware that he had horrible stats against good defenses, unless we're looking exclusively at ts% without regard for league average.

2001 vs Kings (#7 defense, 99.6 dRtg)

4g, 43.3 min, 35.0 pts (.588 ts%, +.070), 9.0 reb, 4.3 ast, 4.0 tov

2001 vs Spurs (#1 defense, 98.0 dRtg)

4g, 42.0 min, 33.3 pts (.571 ts%, +.061), 7.0 reb, 7.0 ast, 2.8 tov

2001 vs Sixers (#5 defense, 98.9 dRtg)

5g, 46.8 min, 24.6 pts (.501 ts%, -.017), 7.8 reb, 5.8 ast, 3.6 tov

2002 vs Spurs (#2 defense, 99.7 dRtg)

5g, 43.8 min, 26.2 pts (.486 ts%, -.034), 5.4 reb, 4.8 ast, 2.0 tov

2002 vs Kings (#6 defense, 101.1 dRtg)

7g, 43.9 min, 27.1 pts (.491 ts%, -.029), 6.3 reb, 3.9 ast, 3.0 tov

2002 vs Nets (#1 defense, 99.5 dRtg)

4g, 43.8 min, 26.8 pts (.623 ts%, +1.003), 5.8 reb, 5.3 ast, 3.8 tov

2003 vs Spurs (#3 defense, 99.7 dRtg)

6g, 43.3 min, 32.3 pts (.533 ts%, +.014), 5.0 reb, 3.7 ast, 4.5 tov

2004 vs Rockets (#5 defense, 99.0 dRtg)

5g, 44.4 min, 24.4 pts (.507 ts%, -.009), 5.6 reb, 6.2 ast, 1.2 tov

2004 vs Spurs (#1 defense, 94.1 dRtg)

6g, 44.2 min, 26.3 pts (.534 ts%, +.018), 6.3 reb, 5.8 ast, 3.3 tov

2004 vs Wolves (#6 defense, 99.7 dRtg)

6g, 42.5 min, 24.3 pts (.519 ts%, +.003), 4.0 reb, 5.5 ast, 2.8 tov

2004 vs Pistons (#2 defense, 95.4 dRtg)

5g, 46.2 min, 22.6 pts (.456 ts%, -.060), 2.8 reb, 4.4 ast, 3.6 tov

2008 vs Spurs (#3 defense, 101.8 dRtg)

5g, 40.3 min, 29.9 pts (.585 ts%, +.045), 5.6 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.4 tov

2008 vs Celtics (#1 defense, 98.9 dRtg)

6g, 43.0 min, 25.7 pts (.505 ts%, -.035), 4.7 reb, 5.0 ast, 3.8 tov

2009 vs Rockets (#4 defense, 104.0 dRtg)

7g, 37.9 min, 27.4 pts (.535 ts%, -.005), 5.0 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.6 tov

2009 vs Magic (#1 defense, 101.9 dRtg)

5g, 43.8 min, 32.4 pts (.525 ts%, -.015), 5.6 reb, 7.4 ast, 3.2 tov

2010 vs Celtics (#5 defense, 103.8 dRtg)

7g, 41.2 min, 28.6 pts (.528 ts%, -.015), 8.0 reb, 3.9 ast, 3.9 tov



Here’s a little context on some of those series:

In 2001 against the Sixers his series scoring efficiency took a nosedive due to an extremely poor game 1. From games 2-5 his ts% was .538 which is well above league average.

In 2002 against the Spurs, everyone was inefficient because it was a brutal defensive series with both teams being extremely physical with each other. The Lakers as a team managed a ts% of just .504 (Shaq was at .487, for the record), while the Spurs had a ts% of just .487.

In 2003 against the Spurs Kobe had a shoulder injury that required surgery, and despite that he still managed to score with above average efficiency.

In 2004 Kobe was only inefficient against the Pistons who had arguably the greatest defense in history after acquiring Rasheed Wallace. No question Kobe played poorly by taking some ill-advised shots, but you’d be hard-pressed to find an all-time great wing player that would be effective against that defense.

Let’s keep in mind that the rules weren’t as favorable back then either. The league was far more physical since hand-checking was allowed, not to mention defensive 3-second rules weren’t heavily enforced which allowed bigs to be more effective in the paint.

In 2008 Kobe against faced off against a historically great Celtics defense and was held in check, just like every other great wing player that season. LeBron, Wade, Carmelo, etc… they all struggled against that defense. That doesn’t necessarily excuse Kobe, but Boston did have a reputation for shutting down great wing scorers all season long.

In 2009 against the Rockets Kobe was going up against Artest and Battier on the perimeter, so it’s quite understandable why his scoring efficiency was slightly below league average. Again, go take a long look at what those 2 guys did to other elite wing scorers throughout the season (particularly Wade and LeBron). Regardless, that was still a really good series for him. Against the Magic his scoring efficiency wasn’t great, but he tore that team apart regardless. I just rewatched that series last week so it’s still fresh in my mind, but what stands out to me (stats aside) is how he consistently distorted the defense by moving off the ball, as well as how many uncontested shots he created from post-ups when the double team came. Just a methodical thrashing.

In 2010 Kobe played great through 6 games and had an awful shooting game in game 7 (but great defense, no question). The result is that his ts% dropped from .557 to .528 with that 6-24 effort, but overall there’s no question it was a great series.


It’s also worth mentioning that I didn’t include some of the other top 10 defensive teams that Kobe thrashed because I limited my selection to the top 7. There were several 9/10 ranked teams (Jazz and Nuggets in multiple seasons) that were excluded.

[Jim Naismith]

I don't think it's too early to discuss Moses, especially since Karl Malone who was never as dominant as Moses is getting so much support, but I'd add a few things. Moses wasn't either the offensive player or defensive player Shaq was.

But Shaq was voted in at #6, and we're at #12 now. So the question becomes Moses worse (offensively or defensively) than Kobe, Oscar, etc... I believe the answer is no, especially when you factor in Moses' rebounding and physicality.

The 32-game drop-off Houston suffered after Moses left is testament to his huge impact.

Malone's Rockets were always bad defensive teams and a few times, among the 2 worst defensive teams in the league. Plus, as far as beating the defending champion Lakers twice, well, '83 is legit even with Worthy's injury because Malone and the Sixers dominated the series, but I have to mention that they barely got by the Lakers in 1981 in a best of 3 mini-series, so that's not the same thing as a longer series. I don't read too much into those best of 3 series and am thankful they did away with them a long time ago.

Yet despite playing on bad defensive regular-season teams, Moses heroically led his team to the Finals. That's a major achievement, especially since it came against his positional rival (Kareem) on the defending champs (Lakers).

(This is the exact opposite of Robinson's career-defining failure against Hakeem in 1995.)

Only 3 players have eliminated the Kareem-Magic Lakers:

Bird did it once.
Hakeem did it once.

Moses did it twice.

[ShaqAttack3234]

Spoiler:

I wasn't aware that he had horrible stats against good defenses, unless we're looking exclusively at ts% without regard for league average.

2001 vs Kings (#7 defense, 99.6 dRtg)

4g, 43.3 min, 35.0 pts (.588 ts%, +.070), 9.0 reb, 4.3 ast, 4.0 tov

2001 vs Spurs (#1 defense, 98.0 dRtg)

4g, 42.0 min, 33.3 pts (.571 ts%, +.061), 7.0 reb, 7.0 ast, 2.8 tov

2001 vs Sixers (#5 defense, 98.9 dRtg)

5g, 46.8 min, 24.6 pts (.501 ts%, -.017), 7.8 reb, 5.8 ast, 3.6 tov

2002 vs Spurs (#2 defense, 99.7 dRtg)

5g, 43.8 min, 26.2 pts (.486 ts%, -.034), 5.4 reb, 4.8 ast, 2.0 tov

2002 vs Kings (#6 defense, 101.1 dRtg)

7g, 43.9 min, 27.1 pts (.491 ts%, -.029), 6.3 reb, 3.9 ast, 3.0 tov

2002 vs Nets (#1 defense, 99.5 dRtg)

4g, 43.8 min, 26.8 pts (.623 ts%, +1.003), 5.8 reb, 5.3 ast, 3.8 tov

2003 vs Spurs (#3 defense, 99.7 dRtg)

6g, 43.3 min, 32.3 pts (.533 ts%, +.014), 5.0 reb, 3.7 ast, 4.5 tov

2004 vs Rockets (#5 defense, 99.0 dRtg)

5g, 44.4 min, 24.4 pts (.507 ts%, -.009), 5.6 reb, 6.2 ast, 1.2 tov

2004 vs Spurs (#1 defense, 94.1 dRtg)

6g, 44.2 min, 26.3 pts (.534 ts%, +.018), 6.3 reb, 5.8 ast, 3.3 tov

2004 vs Wolves (#6 defense, 99.7 dRtg)

6g, 42.5 min, 24.3 pts (.519 ts%, +.003), 4.0 reb, 5.5 ast, 2.8 tov

2004 vs Pistons (#2 defense, 95.4 dRtg)

5g, 46.2 min, 22.6 pts (.456 ts%, -.060), 2.8 reb, 4.4 ast, 3.6 tov

2008 vs Spurs (#3 defense, 101.8 dRtg)

5g, 40.3 min, 29.9 pts (.585 ts%, +.045), 5.6 reb, 3.8 ast, 2.4 tov

2008 vs Celtics (#1 defense, 98.9 dRtg)

6g, 43.0 min, 25.7 pts (.505 ts%, -.035), 4.7 reb, 5.0 ast, 3.8 tov

2009 vs Rockets (#4 defense, 104.0 dRtg)

7g, 37.9 min, 27.4 pts (.535 ts%, -.005), 5.0 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.6 tov

2009 vs Magic (#1 defense, 101.9 dRtg)

5g, 43.8 min, 32.4 pts (.525 ts%, -.015), 5.6 reb, 7.4 ast, 3.2 tov

2010 vs Celtics (#5 defense, 103.8 dRtg)

7g, 41.2 min, 28.6 pts (.528 ts%, -.015), 8.0 reb, 3.9 ast, 3.9 tov



Here’s a little context on some of those series:

In 2001 against the Sixers his series scoring efficiency took a nosedive due to an extremely poor game 1. From games 2-5 his ts% was .538 which is well above league average.

In 2002 against the Spurs, everyone was inefficient because it was a brutal defensive series with both teams being extremely physical with each other. The Lakers as a team managed a ts% of just .504 (Shaq was at .487, for the record), while the Spurs had a ts% of just .487.

In 2003 against the Spurs Kobe had a shoulder injury that required surgery, and despite that he still managed to score with above average efficiency.

In 2004 Kobe was only inefficient against the Pistons who had arguably the greatest defense in history after acquiring Rasheed Wallace. No question Kobe played poorly by taking some ill-advised shots, but you’d be hard-pressed to find an all-time great wing player that would be effective against that defense.

Let’s keep in mind that the rules weren’t as favorable back then either. The league was far more physical since hand-checking was allowed, not to mention defensive 3-second rules weren’t heavily enforced which allowed bigs to be more effective in the paint.

In 2008 Kobe against faced off against a historically great Celtics defense and was held in check, just like every other great wing player that season. LeBron, Wade, Carmelo, etc… they all struggled against that defense. That doesn’t necessarily excuse Kobe, but Boston did have a reputation for shutting down great wing scorers all season long.

In 2009 against the Rockets Kobe was going up against Artest and Battier on the perimeter, so it’s quite understandable why his scoring efficiency was slightly below league average. Again, go take a long look at what those 2 guys did to other elite wing scorers throughout the season (particularly Wade and LeBron). Regardless, that was still a really good series for him. Against the Magic his scoring efficiency wasn’t great, but he tore that team apart regardless. I just rewatched that series last week so it’s still fresh in my mind, but what stands out to me (stats aside) is how he consistently distorted the defense by moving off the ball, as well as how many uncontested shots he created from post-ups when the double team came. Just a methodical thrashing.

In 2010 Kobe played great through 6 games and had an awful shooting game in game 7 (but great defense, no question). The result is that his ts% dropped from .557 to .528 with that 6-24 effort, but overall there’s no question it was a great series.


It’s also worth mentioning that I didn’t include some of the other top 10 defensive teams that Kobe thrashed because I limited my selection to the top 7. There were several 9/10 ranked teams (Jazz and Nuggets in multiple seasons) that were excluded.

Great post, though I will say, shoulder injury or not, I have to fault Kobe for his approach in the '03 Spurs series, but beyond even the context with everyone shooting poorly in the '02 WCSF between the Spurs and Lakers, I'd never call that a bad, much less horrible series to begin with. Kobe did struggle earlier in games, though his overall poor efficiency was from an uncharacteristically poor series from the line, and most regarded Kobe's series vs the Spurs in '02 as good at the time.

[ShaqAttack3234]

But Shaq was voted in at #6, and we're at #12 now. So the question becomes Moses worse (offensively or defensively) than Kobe, Oscar, etc... I believe the answer is no, especially when you factor in Moses' rebounding and physicality.

The 32-game drop-off Houston suffered after Moses left is testament to his huge impact.

Yet despite playing on bad defensive regular-season teams, Moses heroically led his team to the Finals. That's a major achievement, especially since it came against his positional rival (Kareem) on the defending champs (Lakers).

(This is the exact opposite of Robinson's career-defining failure against Hakeem in 1995.)

Only 3 players have eliminated the Kareem-Magic Lakers:

Bird did it once.
Hakeem did it once.

Moses did it twice.

I only mention that about Shaq because you compared the two first. And I have no problem with Moses being mentioned now. I hold his dominance in '82 and '83 in high regard, and he was certainly no slouch in '81 as well, but the best of 3 mini-series will always have an asterisk for me, so outside of Magic playing probably the worst series of his life, that's another reason I wouldn't merely state he eliminated the Kareem/Magic Lakers twice without context.

[RayBan-Sematra]

But the west in the 00's was significantly better than the west in the 60's.

Arguable (and Kobe did have to go through longer runs) but West still often had to face Boston in the Finals who were an extremely strong team & defense.

Plus jerry had Elgin Baylor who is better than anyone kobe had post shaq and of course wilt chamberlain

Baylor may have been better then Gasol in West's 2nd and 3rd year but beyond that Gasol was probably the better player.

Baylor put up some big numbers in the very early 60's (where everyones numbers seemed to be inflated to a healthy degree) but then tailed off quite noticeably.
Baylor's only advantages over Gasol (scoring volume & rebounding) dissapear after those 2-3 years.
After that Gasol is pretty much equal or better at everything.

Certainly in terms of star teammates Kobe was luckier getting to play 4-5 years with Peak Shaq and then another 2-3 years with Peak Gasol compared to West who had 2-3 years with Peak Baylor and then he had an older injury plagued Wilt for a handful of years.

West didn't really have any dominant players at his side during the mid 60's between his young and old years.

[Jim Naismith]

I only mention that about Shaq because you compared the two first. And I have no problem with Moses being mentioned now. I hold his dominance in '82 and '83 in high regard, and he was certainly no slouch in '81 as well, but the best of 3 mini-series will always have an asterisk for me, so outside of Magic playing probably the worst series of his life, that's another reason I wouldn't merely state he eliminated the Kareem/Magic Lakers twice without context.

But the fact that Moses beat the Lakers (with Kareem) twice suggests it's not a fluke.

[ShaqAttack3234]

But the fact that Moses beat the Lakers (with Kareem) twice suggests it's not a fluke.

Actually, it suggests nothing about the '81 series because that was a best of 3 while the '83 finals were a best of 7 series. I agree the '83 finals wasn't a fluke, Philly beat LA decisively and based on their record and postseason dominance, it'd appear they were the best team all year. However, I have serious doubts Houston beats LA in '81 in a best of 5 or best 7. Plus, two completely teams so I'd say the 2 series have little to do with each other.

[Senior]

I don't think you can boil down the 83 Finals as "Moses beat Kareem". The Lakers were just outgunned as a whole, especially considering that Worthy missed the entire playoffs with a broken leg, Nixon separated his shoulder early in Game 1 and missed Game 4 and part of Game 3, and McAdoo getting a thigh injury and missing Games 1 and 4. Kareem didn't have much help outside of Magic and Jamaal Wilkes whereas Moses had Erving, Toney, Cheeks, Bobby Jones. Their perimeter defense was also really good to cover up for Moses' deficits on that end - Erving/Cheeks/Bobby Jones is nasty.

I do agree that Moses was a bit of a tough matchup for Kareem. Neither could really stop each other, but Moses had a huge rebounding edge on Kareem, plus he was a solid 1 on 1 post defender (help defense wasn't awesome though) and he could beat Kareem up in the trenches. Kareem averaged 24/8 with Moses averaging 26/18. Nothing came easy vs Moses.

The 1981 Hou/LAL series is so weird because Magic had his worst series ever and it was a 3 game series. None of the games were decided by more than 5 points. Magic got hurt and missed 45 games, then when he came back there was some weirdness between him and Nixon (chemistry issues). Kareem averaged 27 and Moses had 31 a game so it's not like Moses just annihilated Kareem.

edit: when I said perimeter defense could help Moses I didn't mean Moses was a bad perimeter defender, I meant that the initial perimeter defense was good enough that Moses didn't need to help that much - he wasn't nearly as good a help defender as he was a man defender, he could stay on Kareem and not worry much about rotations and all that stuff.

[shutupandjam]

In terms of statistics (especially in the playoffs), Moses is comparable to DRob: http://www.landofbasketball.com/player_comparison/m/moses_malone_vs_david_robinson.htm

A few points I want to make about Moses statistically that are very concerning to me.

If you look at his numbers closely, he begins to look like a black hole on offense who doesn't get his teammates involved and turns the ball over a lot. In essence, there's something the other elite bigs had that he seemed to lack on offense in terms of finding the open man. Look at the career (pace-adjusted) assists per36 of the "elite" level bigs:

Career ast/36
1.Garnett, 4.3
2.Walton, 4.2
3.Barkley, 4.0
4.Karl, 3.7
5.Duncan, 3.5
6.Kareem, 3.3
7.Wilt, 2.9
8.Russell, 2.9
9.Dirk, 2.9
10.Shaq, 2.8
11.Robinson, 2.8
12.Hakeem, 2.6
13.Ewing, 2.1
14.Moses, 1.4

Moses is blown away by these guys. And when you're using the amount of possessions he did, you have to be able to find the open man, especially when you consider the number of doubles he probably commanded.

And look at the turnover rates:

Career tov/36
1.Dirk, 2.0
2.Garnett, 2.5
3.Robinson, 2.7
4.Kareem, 2.8
5.Duncan, 2.9
6.Shaq, 3.1
7.Hakeem, 3.1
8.Karl, 3.2
9.Moses, 3.2
10.Barkley, 3.2
11.Ewing, 3.3
12.Walton, 3.7

Despite having the worst assist rate by a mile, Moses was turning it over at pretty high rates. His career ast to tov ratio is only 0.4, easily the lowest of the bunch. And it's not like he was a dominant scorer compared to the rest of the group - his scoring rate ranks 10th and his ts% ranks 7th.

And this is offense, the strength of his game. On defense, he has the lowest defensive rebound rate of the bunch, only bests Duncan and Shaq in steal rate, and his block rate is only better than Dirk, Barkley, and Karl Malone.

[DQuinn1575]

But the west in the 00's was significantly better than the west in the 60's.

Arguable (and Kobe did have to go through longer runs) but West still often had to face Boston in the Finals who were an extremely strong team & defense.

Plus jerry had Elgin Baylor who is better than anyone kobe had post shaq and of course wilt chamberlain

Baylor may have been better then Gasol in West's 2nd and 3rd year but beyond that Gasol was probably the better player.

Baylor put up some big numbers in the very early 60's (where everyones numbers seemed to be inflated to a healthy degree) but then tailed off quite noticeably.
Baylor's only advantages over Gasol (scoring volume & rebounding) dissapear after those 2-3 years.
After that Gasol is pretty much equal or better at everything.

Certainly in terms of star teammates Kobe was luckier getting to play 4-5 years with Peak Shaq and then another 2-3 years with Peak Gasol compared to West who had 2-3 years with Peak Baylor and then he had an older injury plagued Wilt for a handful of years.

West didn't really have any dominant players at his side during the mid 60's between his young and old years.

Baylor was one of top 5 players for west's first 7-8 years in the league


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[tsherkin]

I'm curious, where do you see Dirk?

Right in this same range, but I've been baffed with work and am now apparently an idiot, so I forgot to reference him.

[Jim Naismith]

A few points I want to make about Moses statistically that are very concerning to me.

Garnett certainly fares very well in these statistics compared to Moses. I contend that Moses' poor showing in these stats is just the relatively negligible cost of his undeniable offensive dominance.

Moses led a sub-.500 team to the Finals. Garnett was never able to do so much with so little.

[colts18]

Here is how I see Kobe and Dirk:

01: Kobe
02: Kobe
03: Dirk
04: Dirk
05: Dirk
06: Dirk
07: Dirk
08: Kobe
09: Kobe
10: Kobe
11: Dirk
12: Dirk
13: Kobe
14: Dirk

That's 8-6 for Dirk. I came in the project with Kobe ahead of Dirk, but now I'm not sure. I think I might lean towards Dirk because he was a better playoff performer and was more suited for playing against great defenses. Kobe was better on offense, but Dirk was the better defender.

[RayBan-Sematra]

Baylor was one of top 5 players for west's first 7-8 years in the league

While I am not sure that is true I never said anything to suggest the opposite.
I just don't see Baylor from 64-70 being better on average then Peak Gasol.

(18.8 PER) Baylor : 22 / 11.5 / 4apg on 43% / 48%TS --- .088 WSP48
(23 PER) Gasol : 19 / 11 / 3apg on 56%FG / 61%TS --- .222 WSP48

Gasol is the better rebounder (pace).
They score about the same volume but Gasol has an incredible edge in efficiency.
Passing is surprisingly a wash statistically though I haven't watched Baylor enough to feel confident in saying he was Gasol's equal in that category (Gasol is an ATG passer).
Gasol was an excellent defender at his Peak. Not sure about a past Peak Baylor who often had injury issues.

The Baylor West had from 61-63 was better then the Gasol that Kobe had but beyond that Baylor on average dropped below the Gasol level.

[Basketballefan]

Here is how I see Kobe and Dirk:

01: Kobe
02: Kobe
03: Dirk
04: Dirk
05: Dirk
06: Dirk
07: Dirk
08: Kobe
09: Kobe
10: Kobe
11: Dirk
12: Dirk
13: Kobe
14: Dirk

That's 8-6 for Dirk. I came in the project with Kobe ahead of Dirk, but now I'm not sure. I think I might lean towards Dirk because he was a better playoff performer and was more suited for playing against great defenses. Kobe was better on offense, but Dirk was the better defender.

Argue the bolded. I have a tough time seeing Dirk as better those years real talk.

Edit: I also think it's unfair to use 2014 when Kobe hardly played but you don't use 2000 when Kobe was clearly better.