Has Tim Duncan become somewhat overrated?

[tsherkin]

Duncan's 2013 season is comparable to Magics 1991 reg/playoff season and any season Shaq had past 2005.

Mmmm....

2013 Duncan: 69 GP, 30.1 mpg, 17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.7 bpg, 55.4% TS, 107 ORTG, league-best 95 DRTG, .191 WS/48, 24.4 PER

Great season, but missing 13 games and playing 6th-man minutes.....

1991 Magic: 79 GP, 37.1 mpg, 19.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 12.5 apg, 62.3% TS, 124 ORTG, .251 WS/48, 25.1 PER (which hates vlume assist producers because of Hollinger's arbitrary .333 deflation)

Not seeing the comparable angle. Duncan had a fine season as a complementary player; Magic was the driving force behind his team's success. Particularly with the health/minutes gap, I'm just not seeing it. Obviously, Duncan was important to San Antonio's success, even critical/pivotal, but Magic was playing a much higher-primacy role, and it's very difficult to compare utility when the roles differ so greatly, IMO.

[fortinbras]

Duncan is one of the most underrated sports stars of all time, IMO

- He doesn't play for the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, etc

- Fans don't like him: he isn't flashy, bland personality, humble, shy, doesn't seem larger than life.

- His raw numbers are not particularly impressive because he played in an era where the average NBA team only allowed 95 ppg (1998 - 2004) ; he refused to feast on bad teams; he never tried to inflate his stats in blowouts during the regular season.


Duncan was a TOP 5 player of all time after his tenth season, IMO.

1) Regular Season -> a model of consistency, won more games and generated more WS than anyone, excellent PER / DRtg in the strongest conference.




2) Playoffs -> He was truly dominant on both ends of the court, an incredible playoff performer. He was undefeated in the NBA finals (4-0)









3) Championship runs -> nobody did more with less than Duncan.

Robinson and Ginobili were unable to play heavy minutes; Parker never had a remarkable series until he met Boobie Gibson in 2007.







4) Peak -> His last 15 games in 2003 were a collection of masterpieces.





He didn't win more titles because the Spurs (2001 - 2004) were a one man army. Under such circumstances, the Lakers were almost impossible to beat in close games.

[trex_8063]

Duncan is pretty hard to compare to Bird or Magic because he's a two-way player who impacted the game a bit more on defense than on offense, as opposed to them, but honestly, I don't think TD's impact was any lower, comparing their primes. He may look less impressive because his offensive numbers weren't really that special, but the way he could always blend in with his teammates so well, allowed him to be even more impactful than you would think, if you analyzed every single aspect of his game. To a certain degree, the same can be said about Bird and Johnson, but Duncan impacted the game a lot more on defense. I think that his offense/defense combination is better than Bird's or Magic's, and that's why I rank him higher (plus obviously his longevity is much better, too - based on primes, I wouldn't take him over Shaq, maybe not even over Hakeem, but his longevity, consistency and intangibles is the reason why I put him in the 4-6 range on my all-time list). Here's how I see it - individual offense is more valuable than individual defense, but Duncan had probably a more consistent, very high level defensive impact than anyone in NBA history, other than Bill Russell (Russell was more impactful, but Duncan's career is longer), so Timmy was not only a great individual defender, but also a great defensive anchor, a consistent game changer on D, and that's what is really valuable. Then, I'd easily take Duncan's offense over Magic's or even Bird's defense, and that's why I think his overall impact is higher.

So, Duncan may have impacted the game in a less traditional, more unorthodox way for a superstar, he lacks the flash or any iconic things about him, that basically all of the other all-time greats (let's say top 15 players) possessed, but it doesn't really make him any worse of a player. He just lacks that "WOW" factor.

Here's a quote that I love, from a different message board:

"Tim Duncan is for connoisseurs. He is like fine red wine or black licorice.
a lot of people don't like fine red wine or black licorice."

Totally agree.
Another quote I like came from Duncan himself: "Most of what I do is so basic. And basic doesn't sell, I get that."

I think because he largely lacks that "WOW factor", as you called it, people tend to underestimate how good he is, or simply assume he cannot possibly be having as large an impact as the superstars who do have plenty of "WOW" to their game. But he did.

[Nitro1118]

Personally, I put him in the #6-8 range.

I lean towards valuing peak/prime over longevity, which makes ranking Duncan a little tricky. As a poster early in this thread mentioned, the line is blurred when deciding where he declined and where he let Parker/Manu somewhat took the reigns offensively. Duncan's peak was amazing, but his prime production was sort of neutered because of their emergence + Pop's cutting his minutes 7-8 years into his career.

Regardless of that, his value layed as much in his defense, consistency game to game, and play-style (which IMO was easy to build around and adapt to, which is extremely valuable but hard to show through stats) as it did his raw stats. Compared to seasons from guys like MJ, Kareem, Wilt, LeBron, Magic, and even Hakeem, Bird, KG and others, Duncan was a small notch below statistically.

For me, like ranking Kobe, I gotta rely on the eye test more than I'd like to when properly assessing Duncan.

[Golabki]

TD is pretty clearly the greatest player of his generation (the post-MJ, pre-LeBron generation). People who say Duncan didn't have a great peak forget that in the playoffs from '01 to '03 he average 25, 15 and 5 with 3 blocks per game as the best offensive AND best defensive player on the best ('03) or second best ('01 and '02) team in the NBA. I mean that's terrifying.

Where he stacks up all time depends a lot on how you compare different eras.

[Quotatious]

Totally agree.
Another quote I like came from Duncan himself: "Most of what I do is so basic. And basic doesn't sell, I get that."

I think because he largely lacks that "WOW factor", as you called it, people tend to underestimate how good he is, or simply assume he cannot possibly be having as large an impact as the superstars who do have plenty of "WOW" to their game. But he did.

Maybe I'm just one of the "connoisseurs", but as far as that "WOW factor", as I called it, this Duncan game "wows" me as much as any Magic or Bird (just to mention two guys that I compared TD to, in my previous post in this thread) game.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_iN6qwvoS8[/youtube]

Shows how underrated peak Duncan was, on the offensive end. Amazing versatility and efficiency. These highlights don't even do justice to Duncan's poise, basketball IQ and feel for the game (he was a major factor on defense in that game, too - as usual). Also shows his mental toughness, considering he was playing like that in a closeout game of a series against three-time defending champions on their home court, and that team featured two absolute superstars.

[Woodsanity]

I find it hilarious when people act like Bird and Magic were far better peakwise. I argue that Duncan may actually be the better peak player. He is an all time great defender while being very very good offensively as well. Bird and Magic played one way though they were really dam good offensive players. Was their offense significantly better than Duncan's defense? I know Duncan's offense is significantly better than their defense.

Also as a player Duncan was a better playoff performer than Bird.

[crazy_me_87]

Well i guess Top 4-5 could be a bit high... but i think 5-8 Is perfect.
and thats where most people have him... so he seems to be rated pretty good... not over not under.

I think after the Finals people where on a High... it will calm down over time. But its ok.. He deserves to be mentioned among the best ever.

2 MVPs 5 Rings over 15 years(rings in 3 decades) while beeing a 20/10/2 guy for his career. Thats just great stuff period.

[Exodus]

Welcome to Realgm

Tim Duncan is lionized in here.

Playing with multiple HOFs and a GOAT Popovich as the coach, but in here, Tim Duncan did it all by himself.

[Jedi32]

Duncan's 2013 season is comparable to Magics 1991 reg/playoff season and any season Shaq had past 2005.

Mmmm....

2013 Duncan: 69 GP, 30.1 mpg, 17.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.7 bpg, 55.4% TS, 107 ORTG, league-best 95 DRTG, .191 WS/48, 24.4 PER

Great season, but missing 13 games and playing 6th-man minutes.....

1991 Magic: 79 GP, 37.1 mpg, 19.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 12.5 apg, 62.3% TS, 124 ORTG, .251 WS/48, 25.1 PER (which hates vlume assist producers because of Hollinger's arbitrary .333 deflation)

Not seeing the comparable angle. Duncan had a fine season as a complementary player; Magic was the driving force behind his team's success. Particularly with the health/minutes gap, I'm just not seeing it. Obviously, Duncan was important to San Antonio's success, even critical/pivotal, but Magic was playing a much higher-primacy role, and it's very difficult to compare utility when the roles differ so greatly, IMO.

Magic is GOAT. Man I wish his career wasn't cut short.

[trex_8063]

Welcome to Realgm

Tim Duncan is lionized in here.

Playing with multiple HOFs and a GOAT Popovich as the coach, but in here, Tim Duncan did it all by himself.

When has anyone played the "did it all himself/carried his team" card wrt Duncan?

And multiple HOF's and GOAT coach also describes Jordan and Russell, fwiw (and very nearly describes Magic, Bird, Shaq, Kobe, too).

[Quotatious]

Welcome to Realgm

Tim Duncan is lionized in here.

Playing with multiple HOFs and a GOAT Popovich as the coach, but in here, Tim Duncan did it all by himself.

Robinson was hardly a Hall of Fame level player when he played with Duncan (maybe in '98, '99 at most, but he wasn't the same force as he was before '97), Manu is great but he can only play limited minutes, and his health has always been an issue, and Parker is nothing more than a normal All-Star (both will make the Hall of Fame due to their international success, but I don't think they're Hall of Famers based solely on their NBA careers - maybe Manu, but definitely not Parker).

Also, as great as Popovich is a coach, it's more likely that Duncan "made" Popovich, rather the the opposite. Timmy was a high level All-Star even in his rookie season - heck, he was an All-Star level player probably even as early as his junior year in college.

[Ancalagon]

Duncan is one of the most underrated sports stars of all time, IMO

- He doesn't play for the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, etc

- Fans don't like him: he isn't flashy, bland personality, humble, shy, doesn't seem larger than life.

- His raw numbers are not particularly impressive because he played in an era where the average NBA team only allowed 95 ppg (1998 - 2004) ; he refused to feast on bad teams; he never tried to inflate his stats in blowouts during the regular season.


Duncan was a TOP 5 player of all time after his tenth season, IMO.

1) Regular Season -> a model of consistency, won more games and generated more WS than anyone, excellent PER / DRtg in the strongest conference.




2) Playoffs -> He was truly dominant on both ends of the court, an incredible playoff performer. He was undefeated in the NBA finals (4-0)









3) Championship runs -> nobody did more with less than Duncan.

Robinson and Ginobili were unable to play heavy minutes; Parker never had a remarkable series until he met Boobie Gibson in 2007.







4) Peak -> His last 15 games in 2003 were a collection of masterpieces.





He didn't win more titles because the Spurs (2001 - 2004) were a one man army. Under such circumstances, the Lakers were almost impossible to beat in close games.

This is a great post and a great first post ... Indisputable.

[Woodsanity]

Welcome to Realgm

Tim Duncan is lionized in here.

Playing with multiple HOFs and a GOAT Popovich as the coach, but in here, Tim Duncan did it all by himself.

And MJ, Bird, Magic, Kobe, Kareem, Russell played with scrubs.

[Ballerhogger]

Still posting double doubles and has amazing resume. Not overrated

[Rob Diaz]

Welcome to Realgm

Tim Duncan is lionized in here.

Playing with multiple HOFs and a GOAT Popovich as the coach, but in here, Tim Duncan did it all by himself.

Lol, Duncan's supporting casts pale in comparison compared to most of the other legendary players. Tony Parker is one of the biggest chokers in recent history(among star players), and while Manu is great, he's not comparable to most of the other 2nd/3rd options in the discussion here.

Pop wasn't anywhere close to the coach he is now, during Duncan's prime. Pop himself has said that the Spurs system during Duncan's prime was "give the ball to Tim". I don't know how old you are, but there's a reason the 2000s Spurs were considered one of the most boring teams in league history. Pop changed his entire coaching philosophy and style following the embarrassing 2010 playoff exit. Even then, the Spurs didn't get back to championship-level until Duncan re-invented himself as a face-up, high-post big with a mid-range J.


As for the OP, Duncan is no longer underrated, as the new media(we have finally eliminated the antiquated coverage of the old heads like Wilbon and Bob Ryan, etc) recognizes his value through the metrics and logic, I'd say he's rated fairly. Duncan's prime years are often overlooked because his peak occurred during arguably the most uninteresting and lowest point of NBA basketball in modern day history(2003). Along with playing in an irrelevant market, too, of course. If Duncan played in LA or New York, he would probably be overrated and immortalized like Bill Russell, tbh.

[Rob Diaz]

It's also unreal that he has been by far the best player on a solid West team this year, at age 38/39, despite being run into the ground due to Leonard's injuries and Parker's extremely rapid decline.

His peers like Kobe and Garnett are completely finished, Nowitzki is hit or miss(massive liability on D these days, as the Spurs exploited in last year's playoffs), and the rest are largely irrelevant.

Compared to other top 10ish all-timers; Shaq was completely washed up, Jordan was playing ugly-ass basketball with the Wizards, Olajuwon was playing for the Raptors, Bird couldn't walk anymore, etc.

Also, an overlooked trait of Duncan's is how he has adapted to different eras of basketball. He has thrived in both the grind-out, low-paced defensive basketball era, along with the spacing/positionless basketball era. I don't think people understand how difficult it is to adapt your style of play to a completely different basketball philosophy.

[ronnymac2]

I was gonna say no, but the OP has been AND1'd 10 times, so I'll cave in to social demands and say yes, Duncan is somewhat overrated.

[Shot Clock]

Totally agree.
Another quote I like came from Duncan himself: "Most of what I do is so basic. And basic doesn't sell, I get that."

I think because he largely lacks that "WOW factor", as you called it, people tend to underestimate how good he is, or simply assume he cannot possibly be having as large an impact as the superstars who do have plenty of "WOW" to their game. But he did.

Maybe I'm just one of the "connoisseurs", but as far as that "WOW factor", as I called it, this Duncan game "wows" me as much as any Magic or Bird (just to mention two guys that I compared TD to, in my previous post in this thread) game.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_iN6qwvoS8[/youtube]

Shows how underrated peak Duncan was, on the offensive end. Amazing versatility and efficiency. These highlights don't even do justice to Duncan's poise, basketball IQ and feel for the game (he was a major factor on defense in that game, too - as usual). Also shows his mental toughness, considering he was playing like that in a closeout game of a series against three-time defending champions on their home court, and that team featured two absolute superstars.

I see what you are saying but I can't help but feel that if this was a Shaq, Ewing, Hakeem or any other goat big in this video people would be pointing out the obvious. Horry is completely over matched here. (It actually points that out at the beginning of the video) He's barely a PF let alone capable of defending any great center. If I popped a video up here of Shaq dominating him it would get shredded. I know there are a lot of other aspects to this video but it's specifically giving him props at the offensive end. Yet Wilt would be ripped for 'putting up big numbers against inferior competition'. Just seems like a double standard around here.

Duncan generally faced weak competition at his position. He often matched up against players when they were young or old. The only real defensive tests he faced were Garnett and the Pistons. Against Garnett his efficiency dropped somewhat but against the Pistons it plummeted. Otherwise he played against some decent defenders but no one to truly test a GOAT level big man.

Some matchups in his prime/youth.
Malone - no Malone was on Robinson and vice versa.
McDyess

Larry Johnson (SF)…sprained his knee in last game previous round
Brian Grant
JR Reid
Joe Smith (Garnett was SF)

H. Grant - Old
Dirk (back when he was Irk)
Garnett (Neither had much impact of the other defensively, Garnett's efficiency rose a bit and Duncan's declined)

Robert Horry/Samaki
V Baker

K Martin
Dirk goes out and they had no bigs, literally
Horry
Amare

K Malone - Old
Gasol - Young

Wallace's
Amare
R Evans
Kenyon

Dirk
K Thomas 6'7"

Gooden
Boozer
Amare
Nene

There's very few instances where any of the bigs I've mentioned earlier wouldn't be able to at least match their regular season numbers. The expectation is that they would dominate most of these guys offensively.

[Texas Chuck]

TD is pretty clearly the greatest player of his generation (the post-MJ, pre-LeBron generation).

I'd say he's the best player since Jordan period. With only Shaq to contend with. Lebron is a great player, but he's not greater than Timmy(or Shaq). At least not yet.