'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[Jim Naismith]

The RealGM Player of the Year website http://rpoy.dolem.com is down.

Does anyone know what happened?

[SideshowBob]

SAS with a 80.5 DRTG through 2 games.

[HeartBreakKid]

SAS with a 80.5 DRTG through 2 games.

All time bad offense vs All time great defense - the team stat padding is gonna be real this series.

[KD35Brah]

Any other suggestions? Anyone want me to throw Morrow into the mix?

Morrow and Payne?

Thank you for the above post as well.

[RSCD3_]

2016 Oklahoma City Thunder In/Out Splits (82 G, 53-29)

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Durant In/Out - Russ/Ibaka/Waiteres/Adams/Roberson Control (61 G) (Kanter missed no games)

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Control | (61 G, 44-17)

+8.28 SRS, +7.5 Offense, -1.2 Defense

114.1 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +8.7 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Durant OUT | (6 G, 3-3)

-6.12 SRS, -3.2 Offense, +0.1 Defense

104.4 ORTG, 104.9 DRTG, -3.3 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Durant IN | (55 G, 41-14)

+9.85 SRS, +8.7 Offense, -1.3 Defense

115.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +10.0 Adjusted Net

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Raw Griffin IN/OUT

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Durant IN | (72 G, 52-20)

+8.60 SRS, +8.4 Offense, -0.4 Defense

115.0 ORTG, 106.0 DRTG, +8.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Durant OUT | (10 G, 3-7)

-3.82 SRS, -1.7 Offense, +1.6 Defense

104.9 ORTG, 107.5 DRTG, -3.3 Adjusted Net

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Any other suggestions? Anyone want me to throw Morrow into the mix?

Those groups listed above but with and without Dion Waiters

[GSP]

2016 Oklahoma City Thunder In/Out Splits (82 G, 53-29)

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Durant In/Out - Russ/Ibaka/Waiteres/Adams/Roberson Control (61 G) (Kanter missed no games)

------------------------------------------------------------

Control | (61 G, 44-17)

+8.28 SRS, +7.5 Offense, -1.2 Defense

114.1 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +8.7 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

All IN | Durant OUT | (6 G, 3-3)

-6.12 SRS, -3.2 Offense, +0.1 Defense

104.4 ORTG, 104.9 DRTG, -3.3 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

All IN | Durant IN | (55 G, 41-14)

+9.85 SRS, +8.7 Offense, -1.3 Defense

115.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +10.0 Adjusted Net

------------------------------------------------------------

Raw Griffin IN/OUT

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Durant IN | (72 G, 52-20)

+8.60 SRS, +8.4 Offense, -0.4 Defense

115.0 ORTG, 106.0 DRTG, +8.8 Adjusted Net

------------------------------

Durant OUT | (10 G, 3-7)

-3.82 SRS, -1.7 Offense, +1.6 Defense

104.9 ORTG, 107.5 DRTG, -3.3 Adjusted Net

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Any other suggestions? Anyone want me to throw Morrow into the mix?

Wow pretty insane impact by Kd tho the sample is small for his games out obviously. I wouldnt have guessed they were anywhere near that bad offensively in the games he missed. Not too surprising about how great they are with him in. They blew alot of teams out but had some terrible/close losses. I think thats supposed to be a good predictor for postseason success tho?

[SideshowBob]

Any other suggestions? Anyone want me to throw Morrow into the mix?

Morrow and Payne?

Thank you for the above post as well.

Those groups listed above but with and without Dion Waiters

Will do.

[SideshowBob]

Wow pretty insane impact by Kd tho the sample is small for his games out obviously. I wouldnt have guessed they were anywhere near that bad offensively in the games he missed. Not too surprising about how great they are with him in. They blew alot of teams out but had some terrible/close losses. I think thats supposed to be a good predictor for postseason success tho?

Yeah, small sample but a lot more dramatic than last season. OKC's MOV in the 6G set was only -0.5, but they played Philly, Boston, NOP, Knicks, Dallas, and Kings (combined SRS of -2.6) all at home (so another -3).

Last year:

Westbrook IN, Durant OUT: +4.0 SRS (39 G)
Westbrook IN, Durant IN: +5.9 SRS (26 G)
Westbrook OUT, Durant OUT: -2.9 SRS (15 G)

[SideshowBob]

RAPM through Regular Season

JE updated NPI RAPM Single-Year and Multi-Year on APBR through the end of the regular season.

Single-Year - Link
Multi-Year - Link (less weight to older seasons, 3 seasons total)

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Single-Year

Top 10 (O | D)

1. Green +7.93 (4.51 | 3.42)
2. Curry +6.16 (4.65 | 1.51)
3. James +6.07 (4.21 | 1.86)
4. Leonard +5.17 (1.93 | 3.24)
5. Durant + 4.79 (3.99 | 0.79)
6. Paul +4.46 (2.94 | 1.53)
7. Thompson +4.26 (2.92 | 1.34)
8. Lowry +3.91 (2.58 | 1.33)
9. Korver +3.54 (1.20 | 2.34)
10. Westbrook +3.45 (3.15 | 0.31)

Top 5 Offense

1. Curry +4.65
2. Green +4.51
3. James +4.21
4. Durant +3.99
5. Westbrook +3.15



Top 5 Defense

1. Green +3.42
2. Leonard +3.24
3. Snell +3.22
4. Adams +2.91
5. Duncan +2.78

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Multi-Year (less weight to older seasons, 3 seasons total)

Top 10 (O | D)

1. James +7.65 (5.61 | 2.04)
2. Green +7.64 (3.25 | 4.39)
3. Curry +7.47 (5.98 | 1.49)
4. Paul +7.22 (4.77 | 2.45)
5. Durant +6.18 (4.77 | 1.41)
6. Leonard +6.04 (2.00 | 4.04)
7. Rubio +5.38 (2.92 | 2.46)
8. Harden +4.87 (5.04 | -0.17)
9. Korver +4.86 (2.76 | 2.10)
10. Ginobili +4.67 (2.232 | 2.35)

Top 5 Offense

1. Curry +5.98
2. James +5.61
3. Harden +5.04
4. Paul +4.77
5. Durant +4.77

Top 5 Defense

1. Green +4.39
2. Leonard +4.04
3. Cousins +3.35
4. Kidd-Gilchrist +3.35
5. Gobert +3.11

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Green/James barely edging out Curry for top spots in multi-year. Paul not far behind.

Curry tops in offense both sets, but still lags behind Green overall in both sets.

Curry/James nearly dead-even in single-year, in line with their single-year RPM on ESPN

Davis is a small positive in S-Y

Irving is a negative in both sets

Thompson looks impressive in both sets

[bondom34]

Steven Adams cracks top 5 defense.

[SideshowBob]

For reference/comparison here is a folder with J.E.'s 01-15 NPI RAPM, both single-year and multi-year with the same weighting as the 2016 set above.

01-15 NPI RAPM (M-Y, S-Y)

All .txt files in CSV format (Player, Offense, Defense, Net)

[lorak]

If Westbrook continues to play so bad defense as in g2, then he has no chance making my top 5.

[ceiling raiser]

If Westbrook continues to play so bad defense as in g2, then he has no chance making my top 5.

What do you think Green's ceiling is? Can he finish #2 or #3 for you? Also, where do you have him for last year?

[lorak]

If Westbrook continues to play so bad defense as in g2, then he has no chance making my top 5.

What do you think Green's ceiling is? Can he finish #2 or #3 for you? Also, where do you have him for last year?

I will probably have him 3rd (behind Curry and LJ), maybe 4th if CP will do something with that crap roster in playoffs. Last year? I don't know, I haven't done list last season, but probably in 10-15 range.

[SideshowBob]

In Single-Year:

GSW has 4 players >+3 and 5 positive players, 8 negative players

SAS has 14 positive players, 6 players >+2 and 11 players >+1

CLE has 4 players >+2, 8 negative players, 5 players <-1

of course they do....

Curious about the Clippers? I think they might look similar to the Cavs in this regard?

LAC has 13 players listed.
Three are > +2.5
Four are > +1.5
Four are between 0 and +1
Five are negative
Two are below -1

[Dr Spaceman]

Maybe I'm not 100% clear on the math here, but does Green having the lead in RAPM mean, unequivocally, that Green w/o Curry lineups perform better than Curry w/o Green lineups? As I understand it that is the case.

[SideshowBob]

Maybe I'm not 100% clear on the math here, but does Green having the lead in RAPM mean, unequivocally, that Green w/o Curry lineups perform better than Curry w/o Green lineups? As I understand it that is the case.

Not quite. Here:

[1] "ALL Green w/o Curry lineups perform better than ALL Curry w/o Green lineups"

[2] "ALL else equal, Green w/o Curry lineups perform better than the same Curry w/o Green lineups"

[3] "Green improves "Curry w/o Green" lineups better than Curry improves "Green w/o Curry lineups"

via NBAwowy

Curry + Green ON Court (2459 MP, 5154 Poss)

120.2 ORTG, 100.7 DRTG, +19.5 Net

Curry ON Court | Green OFF Court (240 MP, 518 Poss)

112.9 ORTG, 110.6 DRTG, +2.3 Net

Curry OFF Court | Green ON Court (345 MP, 711 Poss)

110.4 ORTG, 102.1 DRTG, +8.3 Net

This is all the data we need for [1] to hold true, and we can also say:

Adding Green to ALL "Curry w/o Green" lineups results in a +17.2 per100 improvement
Adding Curry to ALL "Green w/o Curry" lineups results in a +11.2 per100 improvement

The problem is of course, that in theory Curry was playing with more sub-optimal lineups w/o Green, whereas Green was playing with more optimal lineups without Curry. The above data does nothing to account for this.

RAPM is trying to account for this. What RAPM is continually suggesting is that the bolded above is untrue, and it is providing data that instead support claims [2] & [3]. It does not technically make a direct statement about claim [1].

[Doctor MJ]

Maybe I'm not 100% clear on the math here, but does Green having the lead in RAPM mean, unequivocally, that Green w/o Curry lineups perform better than Curry w/o Green lineups? As I understand it that is the case.

It means that the lineups that have played with Green have outperformed standard expectations more than the lineups that have played with Curry. What defines the "standard expectations"? Well, RAPM...

So yeah, it's all just about players being represented by individual weights and each player "earning" that weight by providing the most coherent explanation for things went as they did.

[Doctor MJ]

What do you think Green's ceiling is? Can he finish #2 or #3 for you? Also, where do you have him for last year?

This is a question I've been really thinking about.

I think that practically speaking, we're going to end up debating Green vs Kawhi and Green vs LeBron with head-to-head matchups in mind. If LeBron looks like 100% LeBron in that matchup, it's hard to imagine Green being ranked above him by many, and I expect I'll share that reluctance as well. Green vs Kawhi on the other hand, while Green's the underdog, it's pretty easy to imagine him winning out there.

Durant/Westbrook/Paul? For me at least, Green can be ahead of them pretty simply. It's no lock, but there's just the matter that if I think Green is actually helping a better team more than these other guys are helping weaker teams, the argument writes itself.

Of course, with no mention of Curry, the assumption would be Curry would be ahead of Green too, and a ceiling of #3 for Green, but as I say all this, I welcome the Curry vs Green debates.

[SideshowBob]

Any other suggestions? Anyone want me to throw Morrow into the mix?

Morrow and Payne?

Thank you for the above post as well.

Those groups listed above but with and without Dion Waiters

2016 Oklahoma City Thunder In/Out Splits (82 G, 53-29)

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Dunno if there's anything to make of the Dion In/Out comparison, pretty small controlled sample for Dion OUT. Dion IN set is the same as the one that was already listed.

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Russ, Durant, Ibaka, Adams, Roberson IN | Dion OUT | (4 G, 2-2)

+10.25 SRS, +5.5 Offense, -6.8 Defense

110.7 ORTG, 101.7 DRTG

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Russ, Durant, Ibaka, Adams, Roberson IN | Dion IN | (55 G, 41-14)

+9.85 SRS, +8.7 Offense, -1.3 Defense

115.2 ORTG, 105.1 DRTG, +10.0 Adjusted Net

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Morrow/Payne IN + All Else IN, Durant IN/OUT

Also really small and controlled sample - I wouldn't take too much from this other than OKC w/Durant is really good on offense.

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All IN + Morrow, Payne IN | Durant OUT | (4 G, 2-2)

-7.11 SRS, -3.3 Offense, +0.9 Defense

103.7 ORTG, 105.5 DRTG, -4.3 Adjusted Net

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All IN + Morrow, Payne IN | Durant IN | (27 G, 25-2 :O)

+14.29 SRS, +11.8 Offense, -3.1 Defense

119.4 ORTG, 102.4 DRTG, +14.8 Adjusted Net (watch out GSW)


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Everyone else IN, Morrow IN/OUT & Payne IN/OUT (they are included in the "everyone else"). All IN sample is the same as above, so what we're really looking at here is how OKC performs when you take either Payne or Morrow out.

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All IN | (31 G, 27-4)

+14.29 SRS, +11.8 Offense, -3.1 Defense

119.4 ORTG, 102.4 DRTG, +14.8 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Payne OUT | (18 G, 10-8)

+1.69 SRS, +2.8 Offense, +1.0 Defense

108.6 ORTG, 107.4 DRTG, +1.8 Adjusted Net

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All IN | Morrow OUT | (8 G, 7-1)

+14.35 SRS, +9.3 Offense, -5.5 Defense

114.9 ORTG, 101.1 DRTG, +14.8 Adjusted Net

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Added this to the main post on Pg. 11 as well.