Post#219 » by Pablo Novi » Mon Jul 3, 2017 12:41 am
20170701 Pablo’s NBA-ABA-NBL GOAT Criteria PART I (1st Draft): UNIQUELY OBJECTIVE CRITERIA
20170701 Pablo’s NBA-ABA-NBL GOAT Criteria PART I (1st Draft)
Imo, THE MOST OBJECTIVE (& therefore UNIQUE) CRITERIA:
3 INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS: My Viewing History; small GOAT gaps; & UNIQUE Objectivity;
MY 58 YEARS OF “RABID” FANHOOD: I had the great fortune to have seen a really great “Point Guard”, Wilt Chamberlain, LIVE with the Harlem Globetrotters a number of times. He was so amazing that I "followed" him into the NBA. In other words, I got to see the ENTIRE careers of ALL the GOAT PLAYERS from the 1959-1960 season onwards. (Additionally, early-on, between my “encyclopedic” dad (I was raised on the “Mikan Drill”, etc.); & OUR reviewing all available pre-1960 info; I was RELATIVELY familiar with ALL the All-Time Greats starting with George Mikan’s earliest year, 1946-1947.
SMALL GOAT GAPS: Also, contrary to virtually every other GOAT ranker I've ever seen; personally, I view the gaps between these players as quite small rather than as large, much less “gigantic”.
OBJECTIVITY: (Given that, as of writing this, I haven’t run the final calculations) EVEN I DON’T KNOW HOW THIS WILL TURN OUT YET: Boy am I excited to find out! Due to being raised by an incredibly TOLERANT dad, in an incredibly INTOLERANT era, (the 1950s in the U.S.), I’ve never really had “homerist-based” favorite players. I’ve ALWAYS loved: great plays, great games (especially overtime games), great players, great careers & great teams. So, until the very last moment, when I finally run all the calculations, I have NO IDEA how “my” GOAT rankings are going to turn out! (Talk about “objectivity”!)
UNIQUE: Given this concerted effort on my part to achieve the maximum objectivity; what follows is both truly UNIQUE in its composite; and in its individual components.
3-STEPS: THREE “CALCULATIONS” FOR THE MOST-OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF G-O-A-T PLAYERS
A: THREE BASIC “OBJECTIVE UNITS”:
1. BASIC “MEASURING UNIT”: “GREAT YEARS” based on YEARLY ALL-LEAGUE SELECTIONS:
For me, THE basic “measuring unit” when comparing NBA-ABA-NBL players is individual “GREAT YEARS”. I define a player as having a “GREAT YEAR” as when he is selected to a yearly ALL-LEAGUE TEAM.
Imo, no single (regular or advanced) stat, nor any combination of them is good enough. ALL are “flawed”, including ALL combinations of them. In addition to their inherent flaws; the very use of them by GOAT rankers is automatically quite subjective. So …
Why not rely on the “experts” themselves, the ALL-League Selectors, to decide how well each great player played each year? (Though the opinion of each of them is, naturally, “biased”; taken together, their COLLECTIVE OPINION, as represented by the final tallies, is very “OBJECTIVE”.
Given the large number of Selectors, individual subjectivity (homerism, etc.) of INDIVIDUAL Selectors IS overcome by their sheer numbers. (Similar to the way that, in diving competitions, the highest & lowest scores are thrown out. Generally speaking, professional evaluators give (much) better results; and the more of such evaluators there are; the less the chance of “political” or “agenda-driven” collective evaluations.)
I call these “ALL-LEAGUE SELECTIONS” because I include: ALL-NBL, ALL-ABA & ALL-NBA/BAA.
N.B. See “B” below for the various adjustments I make in “weighing” these.
2. BASIC G-0-A-T COMPARISON “UNIT”: C-A-R-E-E-R VS C-A-R-E-E-R (Totals of “GREAT YEARS”):
Imo, GOAT (Greatest Of All Time) comparisons are NOT comparisons of either player’s PEAKS (1-year to 3-5 years); nor player’s PRIMES (5 years – 10 years). Instead, it should be based on a comparison of their TOTAL BODY OF WORK (as defined by their total number of “GREAT YEARS”).
N.B. Thus any and all non-“Great Years” play no role in my version of such comparisons. A weak rookie year or weak late-career years do not count as deductions. While this might SEEM like a comparison of PRIMES, it is not. In THIS analysis, the Great Years do not have to be consecutive; but even more importantly – there is no “set number of years” being compared; but instead each player’s TOTAL number of “Great Years” – however many he had.
3. “POINTS”: 5 “POINTS” (1st-Team Selection); 3 “POINTS” (2nd-Team Selection); …
Each year, there are 5 1st-Team selections (per League); and 5 2nd-Team selections. The basic part of my compilation or calculations is derived from totally up each player’s yearly “Points” subtotals; based on: 5 “Points” for each 1st-Team selection; 3 “Points” for each 2nd-Team selection; and additional, smaller numbers of points for still-lower selections. SEE “B” BELOW.
B: THREE RELATIVE-EQUALITIES: ERAS & YEARS; DUAL-LEAGUE YEARS; POSITIONAL-“EQUALITY”:
4. “THREE ERAS” & 80 YEARS:
Imo, there have been 3 DISTINCE “ERAS” in the 80 years of NBL-ABA-NBA history:
a. “The Pre-Mikan Era”: 10 Years: 1938 season – 1947. I pro-rate the quality of play during this era as steadily rising by 2% per year, from 50% (of the “Modern Era”) to 68%; with an average of 59%.
b. “The Mikan Era” or “Pre-Wilt Era”: 12 Years: 1948-1959. I include Mikan’s first 1/3 of a year in the 47 season in the previous Era; so this Era starts BECAUSE the NBL was shocked by that limited number of games into universally raising the level of player. So, for the first year of this Era, imo, the level of play was bumped up by 5%, followed by it rising an additional 2% every subsequent year. So, I pro-rate the quality of play during this era as ranging from 73% (of the “Modern Era”) to 95%; with an average of 84%.
c. “The Modern Era”: 58 Years: 1960-2017: NBA players were very much aware of the amazing stuff that Wilt was doing with the Harlem Globetrotters. In his very first year Wilt did not disappoint; the whole League had to respond. Further, integration FINALLY took off. So, for the first year of this Era, imo, the level of play was bumped up by 5% - to its present general level.
Another way to put why I consider these past 58 years to all be part of the “Modern Era” is because, in contrast to the previous Eras’ All-Time Greats, the All-Time Greats from each of these decades (60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s, 00’s and 10’s) could switch decades and still be All-Time Greats.
On the other hand, imo, there is no denying that, while the All-Time Greats have had comparable careers, the overall level of play has been GRADUALLY improving.
For these reasons, I “allot” the following number of All-Time Great players to @ decade:
5 Players: 1950’s (and earlier)
6 Players: 1960’s
7 Players: 1970’s
8 Players: 1980’s
9 Players: 1990’s
10 Players: 2000’s
11 Players: 2010’s (or 8 players so far, with 3 players to be added in the next 2 years).
“Conveniently” this gives us 53~ players to “fit into” our GOAT Top 50~; and for a GOAT Top 100, we’d just double the number of players from each “decade” and end up with some 106 or so to “squeeze” into that GOAT Top 100.
5. SPECIAL CASES: DUAL-LEAGUE YEARS:
a. THE THREE NBL-BAA DUAL-LEAGUE YEARS: 3 Years: 1947-1949:
The NBL was the established League (with decidedly better quality but playing in decidedly less-economically-viable cities; the BAA the new-comer (with, naturally, weaker players and teams; but with decidedly more-economically-viable cities).
So, for the first 2 years, the NBL was the better League, with the better teams and better All-Time Greats. By the 3rd year, the best ex-NBL teams & players had switched to the BAA; so the exact opposite relationship in quality now prevailed.
For these reasons, I give 5 “Points” to the ALL-NBL 1st-Teamers the first 2 years; and to the ALL-BAA 1st-Teamers the 3rd year. Similarly, I give 3 “Points” to the ALL-BAA 1st-Teamers the first two years; and to the ALL-NBL 1st-Teamers the 3rd year.
b. THE NINE NBA-ABA DUAL-LEAGUE YEARS: 9 Years: 1968-1976:
A similar situation existed during these 9 Dual-League years. Generally speaking, I give very few points to the ABA in its earliest years; but increase that year by year. More specifically, with good reason, the ABA was known as a “Forwards’ League” – so, in most cases, ALL-ABA Forwards get “my” combined-ALL-LEAGUE 1st-Team Selections; with the other three positions being mostly ALL-NBA 1st-Team Selections. (While this is the general framework I’ve applied, the precise details of this are quite a bit more complicated.)
6. POSITION VS POSITION:
A. RELATIVE EQUALITY OF POSITIONS: It has been almost universally the case that GOAT lists are (utterly) dominated by Centers. The reasoning is obvious: until the Guard-oriented 20th Century, centers have had about the same effect on Offense; but much more so on Defense. As a result of this type of thinking, most people have as many as 4 Centers in their GOAT Top 10 (such as: Kareem, Wilt, Shaq, Bill Russell; if not also: Hakeem & others).
I reject this as being unbalanced and unfair. While it IS true that Centers do play significantly bigger roles on Defense; what has been almost completely ignored is the extra EFFORT on Offense put out by the non-Centers – they run around quite a bit more; and, as a result, their careers generally TEND to be a bit shorter. To take this into account, I introduce a “General Equality Of Positions”.
Also, I FIRST rank each position separately (PGs vs PGs, PFs vs PFs); then I include one player from each position in each descending set of 5 GOAT players. (Sure Centers have more influence on defense; but all that running around, cutting, etc has to count for a lot too).
20170701 Pablo’s NBA-ABA-NBL GOAT Criteria PART I (1st Draft)
END “PART I”
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AN EARLIER VERSION OF PABLO’S NBA++ GOAT LIST.
PABLO’s FINAL VERSION will probably not be hugely different.
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My NBA-ABA-NBL GOAT List:
1. KAJ (67% more Finals than MJ; about 67% more Reg. Seas. WinShares; most clutch & unstoppable shot - Sky Hook).
2. Magic (Best TEAM-mate ever (prior to LBJ); I value his 9 Finals more than MJ's 6 Finals & 3 earlier P-O Losses.) 3.
MJ (NOT the best TEAM-mate; he QUIT on his team TWICE - the first time for gambling)
4. LBJ (I have had him moving up ONE spot each year for several years; he'll probably keep on like that & end up GOAT).
5. TD
6. Wilt (not counting Mikan in a terribly weak era, Wilt was the most era-dominant player ever)
7. Dr J (I include his phenomenal days in the ABA)
8. Kobe
9. "O"
10. Karl Malone
11-15. Shaq, Bird, J.West, Stockton, Pettit ("Shaq & the White Boys")
