2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[LukaTheGOAT]

Same also could be said with AD and Lebron after 2020. It's mostly about health. Both aged Lebron and Davis have health issues, which Lebron's normal due to age.

Right but he has KD, Kawhi and Paul George who both have played less games than Lebron on the list, so it isn't just exclusively about health with his list. That is kind of why I am curious to see if he believes Lebron made leaps as a player from the 19 season to the 20 season because that seems like an extreme jump to make at his age.

Don't think 20 and 19 Lebron in the seasons were much different than each other when he was healthy. But Playoffs is a place to play with more minutes more numbers and more impacts. Lebron with a healthy enterance to the Playoffs is the reason where 20 and 19 Lebron seperates.

I suppose. It seems like if we are measuring the actual goodness of a player, a guy going from not even All-NBA worthy to strong MVP/all-time stuff in one season is huge progression for any player, let alone a guy that is in his mid thirties.

[feyki]

Right but he has KD, Kawhi and Paul George who both have played less games than Lebron on the list, so it isn't just exclusively about health with his list. That is kind of why I am curious to see if he believes Lebron made leaps as a player from the 19 season to the 20 season because that seems like an extreme jump to make at his age.

Don't think 20 and 19 Lebron in the seasons were much different than each other when he was healthy. But Playoffs is a place to play with more minutes more numbers and more impacts. Lebron with a healthy enterance to the Playoffs is the reason where 20 and 19 Lebron seperates.

I suppose. It seems like if we are measuring the actual goodness of a player, a guy going from not even All-NBA worthy to strong MVP/all-time stuff in one season is huge progression for any player, let alone a guy that is in his mid thirties.

I also have Lebron at number 1 for the 2020, maybe Yannis and AD also up there, but still.

But I don't leave 19 or 21 Lebron outside of my top 10. He was still offensive superstar(26/8 with +5 rORTG) and anchored above average offences when he's on the court. The impact in the seasons, missing Lebron's higher load and higher effort defences in the playoff; that's why I have Lebron at 10 for 21 and 19 and at the 1 for the 2020.

[Dutchball97]

Kawhi has been messing up top 10 lists for years now. I think a healthy Kawhi is definitely top 5 and I'd probably take him 3rd behind only Giannis and Jokic but I can't really rank him as of now when he's missed the entire season and nobody knows if he'll be the same when he comes back.

[RCM88x]

Feel like these top 10 lists that people like these put out are always more of a "true MVP" ranking rather than a best player ranking. There is not way you can justify being so erratic in ranking players from year to year otherwise.

Regardless, I'd actually probably put Giannis and Jokic 1 & 2 in a best player ranking currently. Then a drop-off to guys like KD, Lebron, Embiid. Then you have the Luka, Kawhi, Curry tier. Then another dropoff to guys like Trae, Tatum, AD, Morant, Harden, Paul, Butler, and Towns type guys.

[letskissbro]

Imo LeBron this year felt like a KG '04 -> '05 situation where the player didn't change much but the situation around him becomes just so bad that it makes more sense to just throw out the impact stats and use your common sense.

Putting him 8th or outside the top 10 or 15 this season might make sense if we're limiting the conversation to situational impact, but that's a separate convo and a pretty pointless exercise. Outside of his scoring the Lakers did basically everything they could to minimize him this season. Team had little shooting, no reliable secondary scoring option, non-existent POA defense, and after Davis went down played him and Melo at C/PF which essentially forfeited his minutes even when he was putting his usual post-ASB numbers. He averaged 46 points in their 4 wins since the break and 30 in their 11 losses lol. The 2020 team otoh was 20-0 when he scored 30.

Whenever you see a star "carry" a team to a respectable record, they're usually decent on at least one side of the ball. 2018 Cavs facilitated LeBron leading them to 3rd ranked offense with their shooting, last year's Warriors were a good defensive team as some examples. The Lakers this year otoh put together a roster that was a dud in every aspect.

His scoring numbers were maybe bloated with mismatches being easier to come by and facing less rim protection playing center but the degree to which that's true is even arguable when, even while running small ball, he played with worse spacing than his superstar peers. If you want to mentally adjust his scoring #s for that you should simultaneously adjust for the fact that his playmaking was muted due to the more off-ball role he assumed to accommodate Westbrook (partially his fault), as was his defense with the center experiment.

I feel like the only players where he doesn't really have a credible argument over this season are Giannis and Jokic. I'd feel comfortable taking him over anyone else based on skillset alone. Maybe it's my bias speaking but I really don't think I'm saying anything outlandish.

[eminence]

Mmkay, first I have to put up a list to open myself to similar criticism. Criteria - kind of a going into next season list?

Tier 1 (solid arguments for best player in the game):
Giannis
Jokic

Tier 2 (weaker arguments, but still obviously great players, some health issues for all that the top 2 don't really have):
Embiid
Steph
KD

Tier 3 (great players, have a hard time seeing any argument they're the best in the game barring a clear leap - possible for the younger guys):
Tatum
Luka
Kawhi (this is projecting pretty good health)
Gobert
Towns
George (if knocking Kawhi further due to health concerns)

First things, wow their lists are remarkably similar, agree on the top 8 and 9 total of the top 10.

The first takeaway is the lowness on the MVP caliber bigs (Jokic/Embiid) and how high they are on the scoring perimeter guys (Luka/KD/Kawhi, though not particularly high on Tatum, unsure why).

My second takeaway is that folks are fairly optimistic about old man LeBron, though this seems to be more me being low than them being high. He'd probably make my top 15-20, but in the last 4 seasons he had a great '20 (arguably #1). A decent '21, but probably only back end top 10, and then a pair of seasons '19/'22 probably outside the top 20.

I don't think Ja/Trae are crazy inclusions at the very end, I considered them.

Did they mention Towns/Gobert at all in their discussions, or did the lowness on bigs stay consistent here too?

So you think Lebron went from being outside the top 20 in 2019 to arguably being #1 in 2020? As in you believe he improved that significantly as a player from 19 to 20, at the age of 34/35?

No.

As in he wasn't injured and there was also more effort on a competitive team situation.

My list was a projection for next season (this could be a misunderstanding of what the podcast guys were trying to do, I assumed something like this vs a ranking this season due to the inclusion of Kawhi), vs referencing the past seasons was where I'd put Bron in those individual seasons in how they actually played out.

And wow are folks high on LeBron this season. I wonder if it was like this with Wizards MJ.

[RCM88x]

Mmkay, first I have to put up a list to open myself to similar criticism. Criteria - kind of a going into next season list?

Tier 1 (solid arguments for best player in the game):
Giannis
Jokic

Tier 2 (weaker arguments, but still obviously great players, some health issues for all that the top 2 don't really have):
Embiid
Steph
KD

Tier 3 (great players, have a hard time seeing any argument they're the best in the game barring a clear leap - possible for the younger guys):
Tatum
Luka
Kawhi (this is projecting pretty good health)
Gobert
Towns
George (if knocking Kawhi further due to health concerns)

First things, wow their lists are remarkably similar, agree on the top 8 and 9 total of the top 10.

The first takeaway is the lowness on the MVP caliber bigs (Jokic/Embiid) and how high they are on the scoring perimeter guys (Luka/KD/Kawhi, though not particularly high on Tatum, unsure why).

My second takeaway is that folks are fairly optimistic about old man LeBron, though this seems to be more me being low than them being high. He'd probably make my top 15-20, but in the last 4 seasons he had a great '20 (arguably #1). A decent '21, but probably only back end top 10, and then a pair of seasons '19/'22 probably outside the top 20.

I don't think Ja/Trae are crazy inclusions at the very end, I considered them.

Did they mention Towns/Gobert at all in their discussions, or did the lowness on bigs stay consistent here too?

So you think Lebron went from being outside the top 20 in 2019 to arguably being #1 in 2020? As in you believe he improved that significantly as a player from 19 to 20, at the age of 34/35?

No.

As in he wasn't injured and there was also more effort on a competitive team situation.

My list was a projection for next season (this could be a misunderstanding of what the podcast guys were trying to do, I assumed something like this vs a ranking this season due to the inclusion of Kawhi), vs referencing the past seasons was where I'd put Bron in those individual seasons in how they actually played out.

And wow are folks high on LeBron this season. I wonder if it was like this with Wizards MJ.

Wizards Jordan was such a step below even his 1998 self statistically to where I don't think anyone would believe he was on the same level. I really don't think you can make any argument in facts that he was.

At least with Lebron his individual statistics are right where they've been for most of the past decade, just the team isn't as good as it has been and hes missed lots of time. I think those are two very different things.

[eminence]

By individual statistics you mean pretty distinctly his box-score production.

His impact numbers are not particularly comparable to his prime.

To me this makes sense, his defense was really damn bad this season and there's still not a box-score number to measure it at all.

[Colbinii]

Mmkay, first I have to put up a list to open myself to similar criticism. Criteria - kind of a going into next season list?

Tier 1 (solid arguments for best player in the game):
Giannis
Jokic

Tier 2 (weaker arguments, but still obviously great players, some health issues for all that the top 2 don't really have):
Embiid
Steph
KD

Tier 3 (great players, have a hard time seeing any argument they're the best in the game barring a clear leap - possible for the younger guys):
Tatum
Luka
Kawhi (this is projecting pretty good health)
Gobert
Towns
George (if knocking Kawhi further due to health concerns)

First things, wow their lists are remarkably similar, agree on the top 8 and 9 total of the top 10.

The first takeaway is the lowness on the MVP caliber bigs (Jokic/Embiid) and how high they are on the scoring perimeter guys (Luka/KD/Kawhi, though not particularly high on Tatum, unsure why).

My second takeaway is that folks are fairly optimistic about old man LeBron, though this seems to be more me being low than them being high. He'd probably make my top 15-20, but in the last 4 seasons he had a great '20 (arguably #1). A decent '21, but probably only back end top 10, and then a pair of seasons '19/'22 probably outside the top 20.

I don't think Ja/Trae are crazy inclusions at the very end, I considered them.

Did they mention Towns/Gobert at all in their discussions, or did the lowness on bigs stay consistent here too?

So you think Lebron went from being outside the top 20 in 2019 to arguably being #1 in 2020? As in you believe he improved that significantly as a player from 19 to 20, at the age of 34/35?

No.

As in he wasn't injured and there was also more effort on a competitive team situation.

My list was a projection for next season (this could be a misunderstanding of what the podcast guys were trying to do, I assumed something like this vs a ranking this season due to the inclusion of Kawhi), vs referencing the past seasons was where I'd put Bron in those individual seasons in how they actually played out.

And wow are folks high on LeBron this season. I wonder if it was like this with Wizards MJ.

I have LeBron as significantly closer to 1998 Jordan than 2002 Jordan.

[RCM88x]

By individual statistics you mean pretty distinctly his box-score production.

His impact numbers are not particularly comparable to his prime.

To me this makes sense, his defense was really damn bad this season and there's still not a box-score number to measure it at all.

What do you mean by impact numbers? Those are situational/team driven statistics.

FWIW his RPM numbers are better than they were in 2018, probably the most comparable team situation to this year.

[eminence]

So you think Lebron went from being outside the top 20 in 2019 to arguably being #1 in 2020? As in you believe he improved that significantly as a player from 19 to 20, at the age of 34/35?

No.

As in he wasn't injured and there was also more effort on a competitive team situation.

My list was a projection for next season (this could be a misunderstanding of what the podcast guys were trying to do, I assumed something like this vs a ranking this season due to the inclusion of Kawhi), vs referencing the past seasons was where I'd put Bron in those individual seasons in how they actually played out.

And wow are folks high on LeBron this season. I wonder if it was like this with Wizards MJ.

I have LeBron as significantly closer to 1998 Jordan than 2002 Jordan.

And yet, somehow the '02 Wizards with MJ flanked by Rip (actually good), Chris Whitney and Popeye Jones in his last meaningful NBA season are a better team than the '22 Lakers (relative to the league).

[feyki]

To me this makes sense, his defense was really damn bad this season and there's still not a box-score number to measure it at all.

I disagree on this. With both Lebron and AD on the court, LA are with -2,3(better) defence than league average.

Btw, despite the 11-11 record, LA have +4,6 SRS when both Lebron and AD on the court. That's 54W team.

Edit: Lebron also has the best shot defence numbers since his great defensive 2016 year. Definitely it's his best season in the LA.

[Colbinii]

No.

As in he wasn't injured and there was also more effort on a competitive team situation.

My list was a projection for next season (this could be a misunderstanding of what the podcast guys were trying to do, I assumed something like this vs a ranking this season due to the inclusion of Kawhi), vs referencing the past seasons was where I'd put Bron in those individual seasons in how they actually played out.

And wow are folks high on LeBron this season. I wonder if it was like this with Wizards MJ.

I have LeBron as significantly closer to 1998 Jordan than 2002 Jordan.

And yet, somehow the '02 Wizards with MJ flanked by Rip (actually good), Chris Whitney and Popeye Jones in his last meaningful NBA season are a better team than the '22 Lakers (relative to the league).

Yeah, the team was better.

Richard Hamilton was a better high usage player than Russell Westbrook.

Players like THT, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson and Austin Reaves all have BPM's/VORP significantly lower than anyone in the Wizards main rotation [>800 minutes].

The NBA is also completely different now [2022] compared to 2002. In 2002 you could have high-volume scorers bolster mediocre offenses because the difference in efficiency from a sub-league average volume scorer was not drastic. Take Jordan and Hamilton for example--they were able to use up a massive usage [28.6 USG% on 51.1TS% for Hamilton, 36 USG% on 46.8TS% for Jordan] while the team ranked 13th in Ortg at 104.8. The Lakers on the other hand have LeBron [32.3 USG% on 61.1 TS%] and Westbrook [27.4 USG% on 51.1 TS%] finish 20th in Ortg [110.1].

It was significantly easier for mediocre volume scorers in 2002 to carry middling offenses in comparison to 2022 due to pace and overall league efficiency being so high due to the volume of 3's.

[70sFan]

I think at this point people give James too much benefit of doubt. He didn't have a good season, despite fancy looking scoring numbers. Of course he had horrible team around him, but a few years younger and motivated James would definitely carry them into the playoffs.

Meanwhile James 23 games, didn't play defense throughout the season, didn't seem to impact the team that much and had a lot of questionable moments off the court.

Does it mean that I have him outside of top 10? I don't know, but he has no case for top 5.

[eminence]

To me this makes sense, his defense was really damn bad this season and there's still not a box-score number to measure it at all.

I disagree on this. With both Lebron and AD on the court, LA are with -2,3(better) defence than league average.

Btw, despite the 11-11 record, LA have +4,6 SRS when both Lebron and AD on the court. That's 54W team.

Edit: Lebron also has the best shot defence numbers since his great defensive 2016 year. Definitely it's his best season in the LA.

First, I don't know where you pulled those numbers from:

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GroupQuantity=2&CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*LAL:GROUP_NAME*E*L.%20James&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

LeBron and AD were a -2.5 oncourt together this season, no chance they had a +4.6 SRS.

And even if they were correct, do they stop needing to play defense when AD isn't on the court?

[falcolombardi]

lebron is definitely still really good, no doubt in my mind he still can be the best player in a contender in his 2022 version assuming health

[Colbinii]

I think at this point people give James too much benefit of doubt. He didn't have a good season, despite fancy looking scoring numbers. Of course he had horrible team around him, but a few years younger and motivated James would definitely carry them into the playoffs.

Meanwhile James 23 games, didn't play defense throughout the season, didn't seem to impact the team that much and had a lot of questionable moments off the court.

Does it mean that I have him outside of top 10? I don't know, but he has no case for top 5.

I think LeBron is clearly in the Top 10 guys you would want for a playoff run but I dont think he was a top-10 player this year when it is all said and done.

[feyki]

To me this makes sense, his defense was really damn bad this season and there's still not a box-score number to measure it at all.

I disagree on this. With both Lebron and AD on the court, LA are with -2,3(better) defence than league average.

Btw, despite the 11-11 record, LA have +4,6 SRS when both Lebron and AD on the court. That's 54W team.

Edit: Lebron also has the best shot defence numbers since his great defensive 2016 year. Definitely it's his best season in the LA.

First, I don't know where you pulled those numbers from:

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&GroupQuantity=2&CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*LAL:GROUP_NAME*E*L.%20James&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

LeBron and AD were a -2.5 oncourt together this season, no chance they had a +4.6 SRS.

And even if they were correct, do they stop needing to play defense when AD isn't on the court?

Statmuse hacked my mind right now. I'll check it later. Sorry for the error.

Edit: But they're still above average defence, I guess with both AD and Lebron. Check it points differentials later.

[70sFan]

I think at this point people give James too much benefit of doubt. He didn't have a good season, despite fancy looking scoring numbers. Of course he had horrible team around him, but a few years younger and motivated James would definitely carry them into the playoffs.

Meanwhile James 23 games, didn't play defense throughout the season, didn't seem to impact the team that much and had a lot of questionable moments off the court.

Does it mean that I have him outside of top 10? I don't know, but he has no case for top 5.

I think LeBron is clearly in the Top 10 guys you would want for a playoff run but I dont think he was a top-10 player this year when it is all said and done.

I think that's fair, although I have some reservations after seeing him last year vs Suns. James is not prime James anymore and I know it's obvious but some people believe he can still do it.

[eminence]

I have LeBron as significantly closer to 1998 Jordan than 2002 Jordan.

And yet, somehow the '02 Wizards with MJ flanked by Rip (actually good), Chris Whitney and Popeye Jones in his last meaningful NBA season are a better team than the '22 Lakers (relative to the league).

Yeah, the team was better.

Richard Hamilton was a better high usage player than Russell Westbrook.

Players like THT, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson and Austin Reaves all have BPM's/VORP significantly lower than anyone in the Wizards main rotation [>800 minutes].

The NBA is also completely different now [2022] compared to 2002. In 2002 you could have high-volume scorers bolster mediocre offenses because the difference in efficiency from a sub-league average volume scorer was not drastic. Take Jordan and Hamilton for example--they were able to use up a massive usage [28.6 USG% on 51.1TS% for Hamilton, 36 USG% on 46.8TS% for Jordan] while the team ranked 13th in Ortg at 104.8. The Lakers on the other hand have LeBron [32.3 USG% on 61.1 TS%] and Westbrook [27.4 USG% on 51.1 TS%] finish 20th in Ortg [110.1].

It was significantly easier for mediocre volume scorers in 2002 to carry middling offenses in comparison to 2022 due to pace and overall league efficiency being so high due to the volume of 3's.

That is a lot of word salad to avoid saying MJ (+3.1 on-court offense) led a cleanly better offense than LeBron (+1.4) did.

Role-players look like they suck relative to past eras by box-score measures due to the continued monopolization of the big 3 (pts/reb/ast) by stars. WB/LeBron are more guilty of it than most.

Easier to carry the offense, Jahidi White OP, blah blah blah

This isn't to say the Wiz weren't better equipped than the Lakers, they were, they also did better. Were LeBron really significantly better than that version of MJ he would've done more than take a slightly worse team to a slightly worse record.