2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2061 » by Colbinii » Thu Apr 7, 2022 2:59 pm

eminence wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
eminence wrote:
And yet, somehow the '02 Wizards with MJ flanked by Rip (actually good), Chris Whitney and Popeye Jones in his last meaningful NBA season are a better team than the '22 Lakers (relative to the league).


Yeah, the team was better.

Richard Hamilton was a better high usage player than Russell Westbrook.

Players like THT, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson and Austin Reaves all have BPM's/VORP significantly lower than anyone in the Wizards main rotation [>800 minutes].

The NBA is also completely different now [2022] compared to 2002. In 2002 you could have high-volume scorers bolster mediocre offenses because the difference in efficiency from a sub-league average volume scorer was not drastic. Take Jordan and Hamilton for example--they were able to use up a massive usage [28.6 USG% on 51.1TS% for Hamilton, 36 USG% on 46.8TS% for Jordan] while the team ranked 13th in Ortg at 104.8. The Lakers on the other hand have LeBron [32.3 USG% on 61.1 TS%] and Westbrook [27.4 USG% on 51.1 TS%] finish 20th in Ortg [110.1].

It was significantly easier for mediocre volume scorers in 2002 to carry middling offenses in comparison to 2022 due to pace and overall league efficiency being so high due to the volume of 3's.


That is a lot of word salad to avoid saying MJ (+3.1 on-court offense) led a cleanly better offense than LeBron (+1.4) did.


What part of the salad do you disagree with? Too much dressing? Croutons providing too many carbs?

Do you disagree with what I am saying? Why don't you actually address my arguments instead of saying its a lot of words.

Role-players look like they suck relative to past eras by box-score measures due to the continued monopolization of the big 3 (pts/reb/ast) by stars. WB/LeBron are more guilty of it than most.


38 year old Melo sucks
Stanley Johnson was waived by the Bulls and picked up off waivers
Austin Reeves is an undrafted rookie
THT actually sucks
Avery Bradley was waived by the Warriors and claimed off waivers

You do realize No teams in the NBA wanted these players--right? None of these players are makimg a rotation on a playoff team.

Tell me, Eminence, which of these guys is underrated by BPM/VORP?

Easier to carry the offense, Jahidi White OP, blah blah blah


You're a better poster than this as I have no idea what this means...

This isn't to say the Wiz weren't better equipped than the Lakers, they were, they also did better. Were LeBron really significantly better than that version of MJ he would've done more than take a slightly worse team to a slightly worse record.


I disagree and we can leave it at that.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2062 » by falcolombardi » Thu Apr 7, 2022 3:04 pm

eminence wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
eminence wrote:
And yet, somehow the '02 Wizards with MJ flanked by Rip (actually good), Chris Whitney and Popeye Jones in his last meaningful NBA season are a better team than the '22 Lakers (relative to the league).


Yeah, the team was better.

Richard Hamilton was a better high usage player than Russell Westbrook.

Players like THT, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson and Austin Reaves all have BPM's/VORP significantly lower than anyone in the Wizards main rotation [>800 minutes].

The NBA is also completely different now [2022] compared to 2002. In 2002 you could have high-volume scorers bolster mediocre offenses because the difference in efficiency from a sub-league average volume scorer was not drastic. Take Jordan and Hamilton for example--they were able to use up a massive usage [28.6 USG% on 51.1TS% for Hamilton, 36 USG% on 46.8TS% for Jordan] while the team ranked 13th in Ortg at 104.8. The Lakers on the other hand have LeBron [32.3 USG% on 61.1 TS%] and Westbrook [27.4 USG% on 51.1 TS%] finish 20th in Ortg [110.1].

It was significantly easier for mediocre volume scorers in 2002 to carry middling offenses in comparison to 2022 due to pace and overall league efficiency being so high due to the volume of 3's.


That is a lot of word salad to avoid saying MJ (+3.1 on-court offense) led a cleanly better offense than LeBron (+1.4) did.

Role-players look like they suck relative to past eras by box-score measures due to the continued monopolization of the big 3 (pts/reb/ast) by stars. WB/LeBron are more guilty of it than most.

Easier to carry the offense, Jahidi White OP, blah blah blah

This isn't to say the Wiz weren't better equipped than the Lakers, they were, they also did better. Were LeBron really significantly better than that version of MJ he would've done more than take a slightly worse team to a slightly worse record.


what part of offense do you think jordan was doing better to make Up the Gap in scoring efficiency that is around double digits?
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2063 » by 70sFan » Thu Apr 7, 2022 3:06 pm

Putting another MJ vs LBJ discussion aside, I think that James coule have done better with this team than he did and it's clear that he didn't care about this season after the first few months. We can say that his situation was bad and we shouldn't blame him for that, but we shouldn't give him additional points for that either. It's not situation, James wasn't highly impactful that season.

Don't mind anyone having him inside top 10, as Colbinii mentioned he's still one of the best choices for postseason pick, but he didn't have top 10 season.

He's absurdly good for his age though. Interesting comparison between him and Kareem at the same age. I would probably take Kareem, though James played more seasons than Jabbar which makes it even more impressive
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2064 » by SeniorWalker » Thu Apr 7, 2022 3:17 pm

70sFan wrote:I think at this point people give James too much benefit of doubt. He didn't have a good season, despite fancy looking scoring numbers. Of course he had horrible team around him, but a few years younger and motivated James would definitely carry them into the playoffs.

Meanwhile James 23 games, didn't play defense throughout the season, didn't seem to impact the team that much and had a lot of questionable moments off the court.

Does it mean that I have him outside of top 10? I don't know, but he has no case for top 5.

Totally agree. I said this already but honestly, this was the worst season of LeBrons career and I've seen his entire career. The only thing I found impressive was his spurts of explosiveness at age 37. On top of his actual play his attitude was toxic and visibly so. I'd be running, screaming at mt agent and the FO to find my way off of that team if I were on the Lakers this year.

I've already expressed my sentiment (in the LeBron thread) why I believe he had a bad year so I don't wanna do it again. I think he could easily be outside the top 10 currently though. If someone wants to have him there fine, but he does not belong in MVP discussions anymore.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2065 » by eminence » Thu Apr 7, 2022 3:54 pm

Colbinii wrote:
eminence wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Yeah, the team was better.

Richard Hamilton was a better high usage player than Russell Westbrook.

Players like THT, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson and Austin Reaves all have BPM's/VORP significantly lower than anyone in the Wizards main rotation [>800 minutes].

The NBA is also completely different now [2022] compared to 2002. In 2002 you could have high-volume scorers bolster mediocre offenses because the difference in efficiency from a sub-league average volume scorer was not drastic. Take Jordan and Hamilton for example--they were able to use up a massive usage [28.6 USG% on 51.1TS% for Hamilton, 36 USG% on 46.8TS% for Jordan] while the team ranked 13th in Ortg at 104.8. The Lakers on the other hand have LeBron [32.3 USG% on 61.1 TS%] and Westbrook [27.4 USG% on 51.1 TS%] finish 20th in Ortg [110.1].

It was significantly easier for mediocre volume scorers in 2002 to carry middling offenses in comparison to 2022 due to pace and overall league efficiency being so high due to the volume of 3's.


That is a lot of word salad to avoid saying MJ (+3.1 on-court offense) led a cleanly better offense than LeBron (+1.4) did.


What part of the salad do you disagree with? Too much dressing? Croutons providing too many carbs?

Do you disagree with what I am saying? Why don't you actually address my arguments instead of saying its a lot of words.

Role-players look like they suck relative to past eras by box-score measures due to the continued monopolization of the big 3 (pts/reb/ast) by stars. WB/LeBron are more guilty of it than most.


38 year old Melo sucks
Stanley Johnson was waived by the Bulls and picked up off waivers
Austin Reeves is an undrafted rookie
THT actually sucks
Avery Bradley was waived by the Warriors and claimed off waivers

You do realize No teams in the NBA wanted these players--right? None of these players are makimg a rotation on a playoff team.

Tell me, Eminence, which of these guys is underrated by BPM/VORP?

Easier to carry the offense, Jahidi White OP, blah blah blah


You're a better poster than this as I have no idea what this means...

This isn't to say the Wiz weren't better equipped than the Lakers, they were, they also did better. Were LeBron really significantly better than that version of MJ he would've done more than take a slightly worse team to a slightly worse record.


I disagree and we can leave it at that.


I didn’t say it was a lot of words, but a word salad. All filler no killer.

Relative to the Wiz crew - thought this was clear, but will say it again - all of them are underrated. This is a league wide trend. Alternatively, guys ~200+ in the league have forgotten how to play basketball in the last two decades.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2066 » by LukaTheGOAT » Thu Apr 7, 2022 4:12 pm

feyki wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
feyki wrote:
Don't think 20 and 19 Lebron in the seasons were much different than each other when he was healthy. But Playoffs is a place to play with more minutes more numbers and more impacts. Lebron with a healthy enterance to the Playoffs is the reason where 20 and 19 Lebron seperates.


I suppose. It seems like if we are measuring the actual goodness of a player, a guy going from not even All-NBA worthy to strong MVP/all-time stuff in one season is huge progression for any player, let alone a guy that is in his mid thirties.


I also have Lebron at number 1 for the 2020, maybe Yannis and AD also up there, but still.

But I don't leave 19 or 21 Lebron outside of my top 10. He was still offensive superstar(26/8 with +5 rORTG) and anchored above average offences when he's on the court. The impact in the seasons, missing Lebron's higher load and higher effort defences in the playoff; that's why I have Lebron at 10 for 21 and 19 and at the 1 for the 2020.


Right, I see.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2067 » by LukaTheGOAT » Thu Apr 7, 2022 4:38 pm

I don't see why people are talking about people overrating Lebron this year by talk of him certainly not being top 10, when that isn't what I was asking. I simply was curious in the dramatic shift from him being outside the top 20 in 2019 to arguably being #1 in 2020. That seemed like a gigantic shift in improvement to happen for a player in their mid 30s, so I was curious in what the logic was and his opinions on him as a player.


However, on this year as a whole, single year RAPM considers him a bum but in general impact metrics seem to view him in a good light even when accounting for games played.

The following tweet is an example of that where he ranks #6

Read on Twitter


SHNORP (an average of normalized DPM (www.darko.app), EPM (https://dunksandthrees.com/), LEBRON (https://www.bball-index.com/), BPM and VORP (https://www.basketball-reference.com/)

has Lebron tied at #4

https://apanalytics.shinyapps.io/SHNORP/

And despite being lackadaisical on defense, in all the aforementioned metrics, he ranks as at least a slight positive on defense despite playing out of position on defense. The Lakers defense being weak and dependent on him could be boosting him here, but considering he was being counted on as a primary rim protector, I am not certain he doesn't look comparable in other situations.

Also, just as a comparison, I see Kevin Durant is solidly inside people's top 5 lists, but Lebron is strongly comparable across the board in multiple impact metrics. He actually is ahead in the 2 posts I just posted, but even if you go one by one in viewing the metrics, they are really close. Of course, KD's team is in a better situation than the Lakers...But once again, Lebron has actually played more games than Durant, so I don't know if he should certainly get the benefit of the doubt in terms of amount he played. I get favoring KD for a PS run, but if things are based on what the two players have done so far this season, I think they are close.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2068 » by eminence » Thu Apr 7, 2022 5:00 pm

I truly do not understand any confusion surrounding ‘19 vs ‘20. He played in approximately 1/3 more of the season.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2069 » by LukaTheGOAT » Thu Apr 7, 2022 5:09 pm

eminence wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
eminence wrote:Mmkay, first I have to put up a list to open myself to similar criticism. Criteria - kind of a going into next season list?

Tier 1 (solid arguments for best player in the game):
Giannis
Jokic

Tier 2 (weaker arguments, but still obviously great players, some health issues for all that the top 2 don't really have):
Embiid
Steph
KD

Tier 3 (great players, have a hard time seeing any argument they're the best in the game barring a clear leap - possible for the younger guys):
Tatum
Luka
Kawhi (this is projecting pretty good health)
Gobert
Towns
George (if knocking Kawhi further due to health concerns)

First things, wow their lists are remarkably similar, agree on the top 8 and 9 total of the top 10.

The first takeaway is the lowness on the MVP caliber bigs (Jokic/Embiid) and how high they are on the scoring perimeter guys (Luka/KD/Kawhi, though not particularly high on Tatum, unsure why).

My second takeaway is that folks are fairly optimistic about old man LeBron, though this seems to be more me being low than them being high. He'd probably make my top 15-20, but in the last 4 seasons he had a great '20 (arguably #1). A decent '21, but probably only back end top 10, and then a pair of seasons '19/'22 probably outside the top 20.

I don't think Ja/Trae are crazy inclusions at the very end, I considered them.

Did they mention Towns/Gobert at all in their discussions, or did the lowness on bigs stay consistent here too?


So you think Lebron went from being outside the top 20 in 2019 to arguably being #1 in 2020? As in you believe he improved that significantly as a player from 19 to 20, at the age of 34/35?


No.

As in he wasn't injured and there was also more effort on a competitive team situation.

My list was a projection for next season (this could be a misunderstanding of what the podcast guys were trying to do, I assumed something like this vs a ranking this season due to the inclusion of Kawhi), vs referencing the past seasons was where I'd put Bron in those individual seasons in how they actually played out.

And wow are folks high on LeBron this season. I wonder if it was like this with Wizards MJ.


I believe the podcast guys were projecting guys who they would most want to have for a PS run this year. Also, while you are entitled to your own opinion, I do find it interesting that you don't consider Ja Morant who has also only played 56 games this season (like Lebron) as a crazy of an inclusion as Lebron, considering Lebron outpaces him in a majority of metrics on a per-possession game.

For example, Ja Morant's team is 20-2 without him and has a -3.6 on/off (Lebron is at 0.9). While we know the Grizzlies aren't actually quite literally better without Ja, statistically, they actually do look better when he doesn't play. But we know, Ja is still a worthy All-NBA guy.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2070 » by LukaTheGOAT » Thu Apr 7, 2022 5:13 pm

eminence wrote:I truly do not understand any confusion surrounding ‘19 vs ‘20. He played in approximately 1/3 more of the season.


You're the first person I have encountered who believes Lebron was likely not a top 20 guy in the 2019 season, so I was just curious for your line of reasoning. I joined this board during the 2020 season (though I viewed this board as a spectator long before then), so maybe I just wasn't around the right basketball minds, but that was a different view then what I had heard in the past.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2071 » by eminence » Thu Apr 7, 2022 5:13 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
eminence wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
So you think Lebron went from being outside the top 20 in 2019 to arguably being #1 in 2020? As in you believe he improved that significantly as a player from 19 to 20, at the age of 34/35?


No.

As in he wasn't injured and there was also more effort on a competitive team situation.

My list was a projection for next season (this could be a misunderstanding of what the podcast guys were trying to do, I assumed something like this vs a ranking this season due to the inclusion of Kawhi), vs referencing the past seasons was where I'd put Bron in those individual seasons in how they actually played out.

And wow are folks high on LeBron this season. I wonder if it was like this with Wizards MJ.


I believe the podcast guys were projecting guys who they would most want to have for a PS run this year. Also, while you are entitled to your own opinion, I do find it interesting that you don't consider Ja Morant who has also only played 56 games this season (like Lebron) as a crazy of an inclusion as Lebron, considering Lebron outpaces him in a majority of metrics on a per-possession game.

For example, Ja Morant's team is 20-2 without him and has a -3.6 on/off (Lebron is at 0.9). While we know the Grizzlies aren't actually quite literally better without Ja, statistically, they actually do look better when he doesn't play. But we know, Ja is still a worthy All-NBA guy.


I very specifically said I took it as going into next season (due to their inclusion of Kawhi). Were I adjusting to the top 10 guys I’d want going into the playoffs this season Ja would not be near my top 10 (especially given his injury issues), Steph would be much lower if on at all, etc.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2072 » by LukaTheGOAT » Thu Apr 7, 2022 5:50 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
eminence wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Yeah, the team was better.

Richard Hamilton was a better high usage player than Russell Westbrook.

Players like THT, Avery Bradley, Stanley Johnson and Austin Reaves all have BPM's/VORP significantly lower than anyone in the Wizards main rotation [>800 minutes].

The NBA is also completely different now [2022] compared to 2002. In 2002 you could have high-volume scorers bolster mediocre offenses because the difference in efficiency from a sub-league average volume scorer was not drastic. Take Jordan and Hamilton for example--they were able to use up a massive usage [28.6 USG% on 51.1TS% for Hamilton, 36 USG% on 46.8TS% for Jordan] while the team ranked 13th in Ortg at 104.8. The Lakers on the other hand have LeBron [32.3 USG% on 61.1 TS%] and Westbrook [27.4 USG% on 51.1 TS%] finish 20th in Ortg [110.1].

It was significantly easier for mediocre volume scorers in 2002 to carry middling offenses in comparison to 2022 due to pace and overall league efficiency being so high due to the volume of 3's.


That is a lot of word salad to avoid saying MJ (+3.1 on-court offense) led a cleanly better offense than LeBron (+1.4) did.

Role-players look like they suck relative to past eras by box-score measures due to the continued monopolization of the big 3 (pts/reb/ast) by stars. WB/LeBron are more guilty of it than most.

Easier to carry the offense, Jahidi White OP, blah blah blah

This isn't to say the Wiz weren't better equipped than the Lakers, they were, they also did better. Were LeBron really significantly better than that version of MJ he would've done more than take a slightly worse team to a slightly worse record.


what part of offense do you think jordan was doing better to make Up the Gap in scoring efficiency that is around double digits?


Also on the current Lebron and Wizards Jordan comparison.

2022 Lebron vs 2002 Jordan

2022 Lebron
56 games played (so far)
Inflation Adjusted 29.6 pts per 75 possessions, rTS% of +6%

Backpicks BPM: 5.0
RPM: 5.96
RAPTOR:4.5


2002 MJ
60 games played
Inflation Adjusted 28.2 pts per 75 possessions, rTS% of -5.2 (yes that is negative)

Backpicks BPM: 1.4
RPM: 0.52
RAPTOR: -0.12
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2073 » by Peregrine01 » Thu Apr 7, 2022 7:28 pm

GSP wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:
eminence wrote:
Would you mind sharing any lists they put together for those of us without podcast time?


Nate:

Tier 1:

Giannis
Kevin Durant

Tier 2:

3. Kawhi Leonard
4. Luka Doncic
5. Steph Curry

Tier 3:

6. Nikola Jokic
7. Joel Embiid
8. LeBron James

Tier 4:

9. Jayson Tatum
10. Paul George

Danny:

Tier 1:

Giannis
Kevin Durant

Tier 2:

3. Kawhi Leonard

Tier 3:

4. Luka Doncic
5. Stephen Curry
6. Nikola Jokic
7. Joel Embiid
8. LeBron James

Tier 4:

9. Trae Young
10. Jayson Tatum
11. Ja Morant


Its stunning how quickly the perception of Giannis as a playoff performer flipped. Since Miami got rekt ppl forget they held Giannis in check again they just couldnt miss from 3. Giannis shot like 49ts that series on relatively low volume PPG. Teams with a stout and agile post defender that can keep up with his feet and dribble like Bam can still give him fits and Miami is still a bad matchup for him Spo schemes him as well as anyone. Okongwu was also giving him problems in limited mins.

Brooklyns defense is ass. Suns didnt have the personell for him and Monty decided to play him straight up and not wall him for some strange reason. They had no bigs behind Ayton last year. Kaminsky was ass and Saric tore his Acl. Giannis had a much harder time with this better, deeper improved Suns. Got shut down bad one time and then fouled out early in the next one. Last regular season a different story they had no answer for him. IIRC he scored his season high on them.

Not to say Giannis is a bad playoff performer but I dunno if hes better than Jokic..... I dont think most wouldve said that before last year so if its a REAL improvement in Giannis game we're gonna see him dominate these playoffs but if he flames out and gets schemed again........


I don't think most consider Giannis to be on Jokic's level as an offensive player or even perhaps KD and Curry. The reason so many have him as the best player in the league is because of his defense.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2074 » by falcolombardi » Thu Apr 7, 2022 7:45 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
eminence wrote:
That is a lot of word salad to avoid saying MJ (+3.1 on-court offense) led a cleanly better offense than LeBron (+1.4) did.

Role-players look like they suck relative to past eras by box-score measures due to the continued monopolization of the big 3 (pts/reb/ast) by stars. WB/LeBron are more guilty of it than most.

Easier to carry the offense, Jahidi White OP, blah blah blah

This isn't to say the Wiz weren't better equipped than the Lakers, they were, they also did better. Were LeBron really significantly better than that version of MJ he would've done more than take a slightly worse team to a slightly worse record.


what part of offense do you think jordan was doing better to make Up the Gap in scoring efficiency that is around double digits?


Also on the current Lebron and Wizards Jordan comparison.

2022 Lebron vs 2002 Jordan

2022 Lebron
56 games played (so far)
Inflation Adjusted 29.6 pts per 75 possessions, rTS% of +6%

Backpicks BPM: 5.0
RPM: 5.96
RAPTOR:4.5


2002 MJ
60 games played
Inflation Adjusted 28.2 pts per 75 possessions, rTS% of -5.2 (yes that is negative)

Backpicks BPM: 1.4
RPM: 0.52
RAPTOR: -0.12


Jordan actually closes the Gap a bit with 10% tov to lebron 12.5% and actually has the same asssits % as this scoring heavy version of lebron

but i dont think that comes even close to closing the efficiency gulf
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2075 » by eminence » Fri Apr 8, 2022 12:57 am

falcolombardi wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
what part of offense do you think jordan was doing better to make Up the Gap in scoring efficiency that is around double digits?


Also on the current Lebron and Wizards Jordan comparison.

2022 Lebron vs 2002 Jordan

2022 Lebron
56 games played (so far)
Inflation Adjusted 29.6 pts per 75 possessions, rTS% of +6%

Backpicks BPM: 5.0
RPM: 5.96
RAPTOR:4.5


2002 MJ
60 games played
Inflation Adjusted 28.2 pts per 75 possessions, rTS% of -5.2 (yes that is negative)

Backpicks BPM: 1.4
RPM: 0.52
RAPTOR: -0.12


Jordan actually closes the Gap a bit with 10% tov to lebron 12.5% and actually has the same asssits % as this scoring heavy version of lebron

but i dont think that comes even close to closing the efficiency gulf


Folks don't have a good intrinsic understanding of how important possessions are to a team in my experience.

Individual turnover %s can also underrate how much a high volume/low turnover rate player changes a teams turnover % by absorbing 'difficult' possessions where lesser players would turn it over at heightened rates (-3.8 tov% delta commanded by MJ in '02, -0.2 by LBJ in '22). That's a ~2.5 possession per game gap from MJs team to LeBrons team explained by turnovers. Tack on LeBron being a pretty weak offensive rebounder for a 4 (team -2% with him on, becoming basically the worst offensive rebounding squad in the league, largely effort related imo) and there's a pretty big gap between how many shots the Wiz and Lakers are getting (yes, I feel it's mostly about the personal difference between MJ and LBJ, MJ hyper turnover resistant and LeBron a weak rebounder for a legit 4).

Total that's ~4 possession swing from MJ to LeBron? Given that turnovers/offensive rebounds both lead to high value possessions in opposite directions, I'd say around a 5 pt swing? Approximately 2/3 of the individual scoring efficiency gap.

Anywho, my original point was that I was curious if in '02 there was a crowd heavily reluctant to let go of their GOAT as a true superstar, MVP contender type. '22 LeBron is better than '02 MJ, though I disagree with Colbinii that's he's significantly closer to '98 MJ than '02 MJ.

Edit: Actually, I made a mistake adjusting the possession margin to per game and just looking at pts/100 to compare (doing it in your head on mobile will do this to ya). It's more than 2/3 of the gap. Probably somewhere between 80-90%.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2076 » by TheGOATRises007 » Fri Apr 8, 2022 1:04 am

falcolombardi wrote:lebron is definitely still really good, no doubt in my mind he still can be the best player in a contender in his 2022 version assuming health


I would heavily doubt it for availability reasons and the fact he's declined which is normal with age.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2077 » by LukaTheGOAT » Fri Apr 8, 2022 1:43 am

eminence wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
Also on the current Lebron and Wizards Jordan comparison.

2022 Lebron vs 2002 Jordan

2022 Lebron
56 games played (so far)
Inflation Adjusted 29.6 pts per 75 possessions, rTS% of +6%

Backpicks BPM: 5.0
RPM: 5.96
RAPTOR:4.5


2002 MJ
60 games played
Inflation Adjusted 28.2 pts per 75 possessions, rTS% of -5.2 (yes that is negative)

Backpicks BPM: 1.4
RPM: 0.52
RAPTOR: -0.12


Jordan actually closes the Gap a bit with 10% tov to lebron 12.5% and actually has the same asssits % as this scoring heavy version of lebron

but i dont think that comes even close to closing the efficiency gulf


Folks don't have a good intrinsic understanding of how important possessions are to a team in my experience.

Individual turnover %s can also underrate how much a high volume/low turnover rate player changes a teams turnover % by absorbing 'difficult' possessions where lesser players would turn it over at heightened rates (-3.8 tov% delta commanded by MJ in '02, -0.2 by LBJ in '22). That's a ~2.5 possession per game gap from MJs team to LeBrons team explained by turnovers. Tack on LeBron being a pretty weak offensive rebounder for a 4 (team -2% with him on, becoming basically the worst offensive rebounding squad in the league, largely effort related imo) and there's a pretty big gap between how many shots the Wiz and Lakers are getting (yes, I feel it's mostly about the personal difference between MJ and LBJ, MJ hyper turnover resistant and LeBron a weak rebounder for a legit 4).

Total that's ~4 possession swing from MJ to LeBron? Given that turnovers/offensive rebounds both lead to high value possessions in opposite directions, I'd say around a 5 pt swing? Approximately 2/3 of the individual scoring efficiency gap.

Anywho, my original point was that I was curious if in '02 there was a crowd heavily reluctant to let go of their GOAT as a true superstar, MVP contender type. '22 LeBron is better than '02 MJ, though I disagree with Colbinii that's he's significantly closer to '98 MJ than '02 MJ.

Edit: Actually, I made a mistake adjusting the possession margin to per game and just looking at pts/100 to compare (doing it in your head on mobile will do this to ya). It's more than 2/3 of the gap. Probably somewhere between 80-90%.


Okay. I will say Lebron's cTOV% (creation-adjusted turnover rate, or turnovers committed as a percentage of offensive load) is 9% which is actually better than modern day creators such as Luka, or Jokic, and only a tad bit behind some one like CP3 who is the king of ball protection. I kind of expect the best passers to have cTOV% around this mark in today's game just simply because risky passers go for the most high-leverage assists and therefore the gamble is worth while even if it marks up their turnovers a bit.

Also Jordan was estimated to have created about 8.1 shots per 100 possessions, while Lebron this year is at about 11 shots per 100 possessions.

Nice talking to you all.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2078 » by MartinToVaught » Fri Apr 8, 2022 1:54 am

It's looking like there's a very real chance the Sixers might get exposed in the first round by Toronto. Obviously we all know about Harden and Embiid's choking habits in the playoffs, and the Raptors are the type of opponent that's Doc's worst nightmare: well-coached, willing to make adjustments, scrappy and mentally tough. Not to mention that Toronto's going to be a really hard matchup for anyone because of their defense. Will be interesting to see how people's opinions change on Morey and the Harden trade if this happens.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2079 » by Peregrine01 » Fri Apr 8, 2022 2:03 am

MartinToVaught wrote:It's looking like there's a very real chance the Sixers might get exposed in the first round by Toronto. Obviously we all know about Harden and Embiid's choking habits in the playoffs, and the Raptors are the type of opponent that's Doc's worst nightmare: well-coached, willing to make adjustments, scrappy and mentally tough. Not to mention that Toronto's going to be a really hard matchup for anyone because of their defense. Will be interesting to see how people's opinions change on Morey and the Harden trade if this happens.


What's more alarming is the defense. They could not guard the Pascal high screen roll at all. You don't want Embiid out there past the 3 pt line and Harden not even trying to fight through screens.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#2080 » by MartinToVaught » Fri Apr 8, 2022 2:36 am

Peregrine01 wrote:
MartinToVaught wrote:It's looking like there's a very real chance the Sixers might get exposed in the first round by Toronto. Obviously we all know about Harden and Embiid's choking habits in the playoffs, and the Raptors are the type of opponent that's Doc's worst nightmare: well-coached, willing to make adjustments, scrappy and mentally tough. Not to mention that Toronto's going to be a really hard matchup for anyone because of their defense. Will be interesting to see how people's opinions change on Morey and the Harden trade if this happens.


What's more alarming is the defense. They could not guard the Pascal high screen roll at all. You don't want Embiid out there past the 3 pt line and Harden not even trying to fight through screens.

They're just so slow on defense, and it doesn't help that Doc is their coach because he's clueless when it comes to defense. I saw he had Tobias guarding Siakam, for instance. Just watch, that will be the matchup he goes with in the playoffs and stubbornly refuses to adjust no matter how badly Harris gets torched, much like when he put Trez on Jokic, Trez on Boban, Jamal on Joe Johnson, etc.
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