Retro Player of the Year Project

[mysticbb]

Well, we can compare our results with the MVP Shares the players got from 2004-2009.

Code: Select all

Player           POY Share MVP Share   Dif
Steve Nash         1.213     2.377   -1.164
Dirk Nowitzki      1.214     1.601   -0.387
Chauncey Billups   0.013     0.374   -0.361
Jermaine O'Neal    0.068     0.425   -0.357
Shaquille O'Neal   0.691     0.960   -0.269
Peja Stojakovic    0.009     0.229   -0.220
Allen Iverson      0.005     0.190   -0.185
Chris Paul         0.687     0.865   -0.178
Tracy McGrady      0.025     0.135   -0.110
Ray Allen          0.016     0.032   -0.016
Paul Pierce        0.004     0.018   -0.014
Amar'e Stoudemire  0.051     0.055   -0.004
Carmelo Anthony    0.004     0.004    0.000
Andrei Kirilenko   0.018     0.002    0.016
Manu Ginobili      0.032     0.007    0.025
Dwight Howard      0.356     0.319    0.037
Ben Wallace        0.059     0.020    0.039
Kobe Bryant        2.471     2.416    0.055
LeBron James       2.267     2.091    0.176
Kevin Garnett      2.201     1.540    0.661
Dwyane Wade        1.511     0.668    0.843
Tim Duncan         2.679     1.110    1.569


Duncan can be explained with the titles in 2005 and 2007, Wade with the title in 2006 (similar for Shaq, just the shift from Shaq to Wade), Nowitzki can be explained by his 2007 playoffs performance. Jermaine O'Neal and Stojakovic were clearly overrated by the MVP voting. There are only two players which seems to have a clear biased influence here: Steve Nash and Kevin Garnett. Garnett gets more shares in our voting in years in which he done nothing in the playoffs, and Nash gets less even though he was reasonable successful in the playoffs.

[bastillon]

There are only two players which seems to have a clear biased influence here: Steve Nash and Kevin Garnett. Garnett gets more shares in our voting in years in which he done nothing in the playoffs, and Nash gets less even though he was reasonable successful in the playoffs.

I'm not sure if we're overrating Garnett. he wasn't really on POY ballots in '05-'07 that high. he got most of his votes in 2004 and 2008. the first year was clear-cut case that everyone agreed upon. the second can be explained by the title as well (outplayed both rivals, James and Kobe) and he was leading candidate for MVP until he got injured. aside from those years Garnett was IMO underrated and two biggest supporters of his game (me and drza) weren't voting for him very high in those years. drza was putting him at around #4th and I didn't vote for him at all in 05-07. homerism is definitely not the case here... and again, 0.600 can be largely explained by '08 when he won the title so...

I think mid 00s Duncan was very overrated. I've been analyzing his game in early 00s and it seems that he was a much better player than later, when he started to miss games, had constant injuries throughout the RS/playoffs etc. in 2004 he had injury and then had early playoff exit, in 2005 he was arguably 2nd best player on his team in the playoffs, in 2006 he had down year in RS and then his team underachieved in the playoffs... those were years when he got overrated and IMO there's the difference between MVP Shares and POY Shares. I think Duncan 01 and 02 will be underrated because of Lakers postseason success though.

as for Nash, I also feel like he didn't get enough credit but there are some posters that didn't vote for him at all (DavidStern, Gonxi) and then he didn't have that great team success in the playoffs given the injuries etc.

[mysticbb]

aside from those years Garnett was IMO underrated and two biggest supporters of his game (me and drza) weren't voting for him very high in those years.

Well, for sure you think he was underrated, I also think that Garnett was underrated in some years (also his role on the 2008 Celtics), but that wasn't really the point. I just made a comparison between the MVP Shares and our POY Shares. Garnett's higher shares here in our voting can't completely be explained by the title in 2008, and in other years he didn't have any playoffs success.
We can really see a shift in the voting towards playoffs success (or no success), that explains the biggest shifts imho. For Garnett that is not completely the case, the same goes for Nash.

Nash had two WCF appearances, made the 2nd round once in his 3 peak MVP years, I think that is a reasonable success given the competition and the circumstances. His lower amount isn't really explainable by the low success in the playoffs.

My intention wasn't calling out specific users or fan groups, I just stated my conclusion out of the data. I'm also biased towards Nash and gave Garnett the benifit of the doubt in a year or two.

[semi-sentient]

Damn, didn't realize Nash was getting that little love. On the other hand, I think many here didn't feel he deserved back-to-back MVP's, so that's going to skew things quite a bit. POY does have to account for the season as a whole, and I think lots of people in general have weighed both offense and defense, hence the reason he's not getting quite as much love.

The MVP award generally goes to the best offensive player, but I'd like to think that we're being more reasonable and looking at the overall picture. Defense does matter, and it has to be weighed in, so with that said I think it's hurt Nash and Dirk the most.

[mysticbb]

The MVP award generally goes to the best offensive player, but I'd like to think that we're being more reasonable and looking at the overall picture. Defense does matter, and it has to be weighed in, so with that said I think it's hurt Nash and Dirk the most.

Yes, because the impact of individual defense is generally overrated. There is also the misconception that "offense wins games, defense wins championships" while in reality the difference between the ORtg and DRtg from a championship team and the league average is the same. In average a championship team has a 3.2 better ORtg and DRtg. There is no difference at all.

Well, that explains the difference and the bias here. Garnett gets the plus due to his defense and Nash gets knocked down for his weak defense.

[Doctor MJ]

Duncan can be explained with the titles in 2005 and 2007, Wade with the title in 2006 (similar for Shaq, just the shift from Shaq to Wade), Nowitzki can be explained by his 2007 playoffs performance. Jermaine O'Neal and Stojakovic were clearly overrated by the MVP voting. There are only two players which seems to have a clear biased influence here: Steve Nash and Kevin Garnett. Garnett gets more shares in our voting in years in which he done nothing in the playoffs, and Nash gets less even though he was reasonable successful in the playoffs.

Very interesting. I don't know if I'd use the word "biased" because I think there is more to it than that, but there is a clear shift in perspective with those two players.

That Nash gets so little love doesn't surprise me, but it always makes me sad. That he was never finished #1 in a POY is no big deal, that there were some voters who never had him in their top 5 is pretty crazy.

Garnett's the most interesting. His play in Boston, combined with acceptance of advanced stats on RealGM really re-defines the narrative of his career. I'll say, thinking it through more, and hearing the arguments others gave boosted him a bit in my estimation - but I'm pretty amazed at how much higher some see him. I'll be continuing to think about this in the future.

[sp6r=underrated]

That Nash gets so little love doesn't surprise me, but it always makes me sad. That he was never finished #1 in a POY is no big deal, that there were some voters who never had him in their top 5 is pretty crazy.

I'll admit I'm pulling for the Suns now to win it. The Suns have averaged 55.5 wins per season in the Nash era. They would have one championship, three WCF appearances, and one year were they were eliminated in the WCSF which were the real NBA finals.

Hopefully, if they win it the idea that Suns were a gimmick team, which is one of the dumber common beliefs, will come to an end.

[Doctor MJ]

That Nash gets so little love doesn't surprise me, but it always makes me sad. That he was never finished #1 in a POY is no big deal, that there were some voters who never had him in their top 5 is pretty crazy.

I'll admit I'm pulling for the Suns now to win it. The Suns have averaged 55.5 wins per season in the Nash era. They would have one championship, three WCF appearances, and one year were they were eliminated in the WCSF which were the real NBA finals.

Hopefully, if they win it the idea that Suns were a gimmick team, which is one of the dumber common beliefs, will come to an end.

Yup.

Also, it's been interesting. I've been glad to see that the meme that Dirk's a choker is dead among this group at least. Yet I still think people here don't think the Suns are a good playoff team. I find myself wondering if people realize that Dirk's only made the WCF 2 times, while Nash has made it 4 times. I mean at this point, there's not a lot to point to to indicate that since the schism Dallas has been more successful than Phoenix.

[Sedale Threatt]

My whole thing with Nash is, it's pretty hard to rate a one-way player over the likes of Garnett or Duncan, who dominated on both ends, or powerhouses like Wade or LeBron or Shaq who either put up ridiculously great stats, or willed teams to championships, or both.

I really, really, really like his game. I have nothing overtly negative to say about him. If you're going to be a mediocre defender, that's the position to be one at. I just have a hard time rating him above the guys I just mentioned when I think they're at least better players, and usually were having better seasons as well.

I do agree that leaving him completely off a ballot in some years was pretty ridiculous.

[sp6r=underrated]

A list of players I'm interested in for this project:
80's KAJ
Larry Bird
Karl Malone
Hakeem Olajuwon
Isiah Thomas
Bill Walton
70s Knicks

[lorak]

Well, I’m the one who leave Nash off in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and I know that my nick is nothing here. But for example drza is a poster respected by everyone so look guys:

2005
me: TD, KG, DW, Shaq, Dirk
drza: KG, TD, Manu, DW, Nash
So is it really so awful that I put Shaq or Dirk above Nash?

2006
me: DW, Dirk, LJ, KB, KG
drza: DW, Dirk, LJ, KB, KG

2007
me: TD, Dirk, LJ, KB, KG
drza: TD, LJ, KG, Dirk, KB

So in 2006 our votes are the same and in 2007 are different but top 5 is the same and we both leave Nash off.

[Doctor MJ]

My whole thing with Nash is, it's pretty hard to rate a one-way player over the likes of Garnett or Duncan, who dominated on both ends, or powerhouses like Wade or LeBron or Shaq who either put up ridiculously great stats, or willed teams to championships, or both.

I really, really, really like his game. I have nothing overtly negative to say about him. If you're going to be a mediocre defender, that's the position to be one at. I just have a hard time rating him above the guys I just mentioned when I think they're at least better players, and usually were having better seasons as well.

I do agree that leaving him completely off a ballot in some years was pretty ridiculous.

Well to me, this is why it's so key the way Nash stands out in the W-L realm. Nash stood out in Phoenix from the beginning because of how much better the team's results were, not simply because the offense became great, but because that improving of the offense produced lots of wins. Also, in the micro-W-L world of +/-, I know some of you don't buy that stat and/or are sick of it, but it's the one stat that's really not biased toward offense, and Nash does just fine there (like a superstar, like the other superstars).

[Doctor MJ]

Well, I’m the one who leave Nash off in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and I know that my nick is nothing here. But for example drza is a poster respected by everyone so look guys:

David, my apologies if you felt backed into a corner here. If you were the only one who left him off, I wouldn't have mentioned this result. Clearly others agree with you, and you're entitled to your opinion - it's just that I'm right and you're wrong.

[semi-sentient]

Yes, because the impact of individual defense is generally overrated. There is also the misconception that "offense wins games, defense wins championships" while in reality the difference between the ORtg and DRtg from a championship team and the league average is the same.

I generally don't subscribe to that view. Defense does win championships (see Celtics '08), but a competent offense is still required the overwhelming majority of the team. There is a reason that the '90's Knicks never won diddly squat, and it wasn't just because of Jordan. They sucked on offense and lacked a much needed "take over" player or consistent threat.

Regarding individual defense, why is it overrated? Was Artest overrated for "shutting down" Durant? Did you think it was overrated when Kobe took Westbrook completely out of his game in the OKC series (and yes, there were other factors, but you can't deny the impact)? If anything, individual defense is starting to get underrated as a way to overlook certain players poor individual defense.


In average a championship team has a 3.2 better ORtg and DRtg. There is no difference at all.

Well, that explains the difference and the bias here. Garnett gets the plus due to his defense and Nash gets knocked down for his weak defense.[/quote]

[JordansBulls]

A list of players I'm interested in for this project:
80's KAJ
Larry Bird
Karl Malone
Hakeem Olajuwon
Isiah Thomas
Bill Walton
70s Knicks

Do you mean how often they are in the top 5 in the 80's for each of them?

[sp6r=underrated]

A list of players I'm interested in for this project:
80's KAJ
Larry Bird
Karl Malone
Hakeem Olajuwon
Isiah Thomas
Bill Walton
70s Knicks

Do you mean how often they are in the top 5 in the 80's for each of them?

In the sense that the players will provoke arguments

80s KAJ: I can guess there will be some voters claiming he was living on reputation.
Bird: How will people deal with the years his performance in the playoffs was suspect?
Malone: Ditto
Hakeem: Always a realgm favorite for discussion
Thomas: Championships vs. everything else
Walton: GP and not great box score stats
70s Knicks: a lot of debate over who there best player was

[semi-sentient]

That Nash gets so little love doesn't surprise me, but it always makes me sad. That he was never finished #1 in a POY is no big deal, that there were some voters who never had him in their top 5 is pretty crazy.

Crazy indeed.

Just want to say that I've given Nash a fair share of love. I voted him at #3 in '04-05, #4 in '05-06, #1 in '06-07, and I'll have him in my top 5 in '09-10 for running a historic offense.

[Sedale Threatt]

Well to me, this is why it's so key the way Nash stands out in the W-L realm. Nash stood out in Phoenix from the beginning because of how much better the team's results were, not simply because the offense became great, but because that improving of the offense produced lots of wins. Also, in the micro-W-L world of +/-, I know some of you don't buy that stat and/or are sick of it, but it's the one stat that's really not biased toward offense, and Nash does just fine there (like a superstar, like the other superstars).

Absolutely it resulted in a lot of wins -- he's a great player. Like I said, I have a ton or respect for Nash, and what he brings to the table. I love watching players with a high skill level, as opposed to nothing-but-athletes like Josh Smith and Andre Iguodala. He's right at the top of the list.

But again, whatever impact Steve has had -- and no question, it's been substantial -- it doesn't match, in my opinion, what guys like Garnett and Duncan bring to the table as dominant two-way players, or overwhelming forces of nature like a Shaq or a Lebron or a Wade. Kobe, too.

That's a pretty damn elite group of contemporaries, and all of them were either in or close to their primes during the course of Nash's career.

[Dr Positivity]

The only vote I disagree with in regards to Nash and KG is 05. KG has as many top 2 votes and is on more ballots... that seems wild to me considering the Wolves missed the playoffs whereas Nash was the MVP, won 62, made the WCF, and did it when Marion/Amare/Joe Johnson won 29 games with Marbury the year before. I know we're judging the player and not team success but IMO Nash deserved to be rewarded for that year far more than KG...

[Sedale Threatt]

A list of players I'm interested in for this project:
80's KAJ
Larry Bird
Karl Malone
Hakeem Olajuwon
Isiah Thomas
Bill Walton
70s Knicks

Do you mean how often they are in the top 5 in the 80's for each of them?

In the sense that the players will provoke arguments

80s KAJ: I can guess there will be some voters claiming he was living on reputation.
Bird: How will people deal with the years his performance in the playoffs was suspect?
Malone: Ditto
Hakeem: Always a realgm favorite for discussion
Thomas: Championships vs. everything else
Walton: GP and not great box score stats
70s Knicks: a lot of debate over who there best player was

I'm already girding my loins for the Cult of Hakeem. I've got him penciled in for 94 and 95, but there's no way I'm picking him over Jordan in any season before that.