RealGM Top 100 List #7

[Doctor MJ]

My formal vote:

Vote: Hakeem Olajuwon
Nomination: LeBron James

[Fencer reregistered]

Lebron's PTS% & AST% are higher than Bird's,

But Bird had a higher number on his uniform.

All three statistics are of approximately equal significance.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Lebron's PTS% & AST% are higher than Bird's,

But Bird had a higher number on his uniform.

All three statistics are of approximately equal significance.

What numbers do you think are significant??

I didn't realize that offensive porduction didn't matter. I guess I should just accept that Larry has a greater legend than Kobe, and just ignore anything else, since they don't seem to matter.

[Laimbeer]

Hakeem only had 3?!?!?!?

I need Bastillon for support.

Please, no. These threads have been enjoyably civil.

[lorak]

Wow @ those 2 first years on the heat.. o.o

Wade was great at attacking the basket so it's not surprise that heat were so good at pts in the paint differential.

[Sedale Threatt]

Of course, Shaq had nothing to do with that, right?

[lorak]

Of course, Shaq had nothing to do with that, right?

No, Shaq was part of that.

[34Dayz]

They were both a part of it, Shaq was very good in 05.

[Doctor MJ]

Of course, Shaq had nothing to do with that, right?

No, Shaq was part of that.

But some perspective:

In '02-03, the Lakers' edge was +3.6 with Shaq scoring 26 PPG.

In '05-06, the Heats' edge was +12 with Shaq scoring 20 PPG.

I'd say it's quite clear that there are forces at work here bigger than Shaq if the edge can quadruple while Shaq has a dramatic fall off in impact.

[Sedale Threatt]

Obviously. But Shaq still played a role.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Of course, Shaq had nothing to do with that, right?

No, Shaq was part of that.

But some perspective:

In '02-03, the Lakers' edge was +3.6 with Shaq scoring 26 PPG.

In '05-06, the Heats' edge was +12 with Shaq scoring 20 PPG.

I'd say it's quite clear that there are forces at work here bigger than Shaq if the edge can quadruple while Shaq has a dramatic fall off in impact.

Yep. The Laker's F/C rotation when Shaq was out consisted of Horry, Samaki, and Slava. Even When Shaq came back, he wasn't quite himself, and LA just had no depth that year up front.

Miami on the otherhand, had Shaq, Zo, Haslem. So they were much stronger up front offensively, and defintiely defensively.

[colts18]

The case for Shaq here especially over Bird:

-Shaq had 5 straight PER titles, and 10 FG% titles
Playoffs:
-Shaq is better in the playoffs and finals
-Shaq's Pts, rebs, asts went up
This is what Shaq did in the playoffs from 98-03:
31-10-3
27-12-2
31-15-3
30-15-3
29-13-3
27-15-4


Shaq averaged 26-12-3, 3 blks, 58 FG%, Better PER, better WS. In the playoffs he averaged 27-13-3.

I don't think anyone in history can compare to Shaq's 98-03 6 year prime other than MJ and Kareem.

The more I look at it, the more I think that this span could be the greatest 6 year uninterrupted peak in history.

Regular season:
28.1 PPG
11.8 Reb
3.1 AST
2.8 Turnovers
2.4 Blk
.577 FG%
.585 TS%
29.9 PER
.255 WS/48

He lead the league in PER and FG% every year from 98-02

Postseason:
29.3 PPG
13.7 Reb
3.0 AST
2.4 BLK
.554 FG%
.565 TS%
29.6 PER
.228 WS/48

During the 3peat years he averaged 30-15-3, .55 FG%, 29.3 PER (that's right, his PER was better outside the 3 peat years than during them). In the finals he averaged 36-15-4, 3 blk, 60 FG%. To put Shaq's finals run into perspective, he had a 25-10 and 52 FG% in every single game of the 15 game finals run and had 30-10 in 13 out of 15 games (including every game of Nets and Pacers series).

During this span, The Lakers are:
290-106: .732 With Shaq
33-31: .516 without Shaq

214-79: .731 with Kobe
28-7: .800 without Kobe

It's clear that Shaq was the catalyst in this run.

Here are Shaq's numbers head to head vs. some of the top centers of his era. Pay attention to the first 3, those guys combined for 10 DPOY in a 12 year span in the middle of Shaq's prime:
Mourning:
Shaq: 30-12-3 57 FG% (13-3 W-L)
Mourning: 21-9-1 44 FG% (Mourning's decline doesn't factor because Shaq played him 1 time after 2002)

Mutombo:
Shaq: 22-12-2, 52 FG% (17-7)
Mutombo: 8-9-0, 50 FG%
playoffs:
Shaq: 33-16-5, 57 FG% (4-1)
Mutombo: 17-12-0, 60 FG%

Ben Wallace:
Shaq: 25-10-3, 59 FG% (13-10)
Wallace: 6-9-1 51 FG% (his offensive numbers are irrelevant)
playoffs:
Shaq: 22-9-1, 61 FG% (8-14)
Wallace: 8-11-2, 47 FG% (again its irrelevant)

Robinson:
Shaq: 26-12-2, 54 FG% (11-12)
Robinson: 19-10-3, 47 FG%
Playoffs:
Shaq: 25-13-3, 52 FG% (9-8)
Robinson: 10-7-1, 45 FG% (all past Robinson's prime, but he had Duncan for help)

Ewing:
Shaq: 29-12-3, 54 FG% (15-11)
Ewing: 21-11-2, 44 FG%

Olajuwon:
Shaq: 22-12-4, 54 FG% (14-6)
Olajuwon: 18-9-3, 45 FG%
playoffs:
Shaq: 29-11-5, 56 FG% (3-5)
Olajuwon: 23-9-3, 47 FG% (so much for him dominating Shaq in the playoffs)

So Shaq was over 50 FG% against every single one of these guys and had a better FG% than these guys in the regular season and postseason with the exception of Mutombo's 2001 playoff which Shaq makes up with his dominating performance. He had a 63% regular season win% against these guys. He held all the guys who were good offensively (Robinson, Ewing, Olajuwon, and Mourning) to under 47 FG% in both the playoffs and regular season.

This vote has to be Shaq. Longevity, Peak, Prime, accolades, playoffs all favor him.

Shaq's teams were only 172-146 (44 win pace) without him and about 56 win pace with him. That is a clear impact and you can see it later in his career when the Heat, Celtics, and Suns were better with him than without him. Basically he stayed as a productive player for 17 years. Only Kareem can match that.

For some reason people here think that Robinson slowed down Shaq, but I disagree with that. In the playoffs, Shaq averaged 25-13-3, 52 FG% and averaged 26-12-2, 54 FG% in the regular season. That is solid.

Shaq has even bested Hakeem in the playoffs. Shaq: 29-11-5, 3.3 blks 56 FG% vs. Olajuwon: 23-9-3, 1.4 blks, 47 FG% in the playoffs. Pretty much domination by Shaq. Look at the numbers Shaq put vs. Mutombo, Wallace, and Mourning, those guys combined for 10 DPOY from 95-06 during Shaq's prime, yet Shaq dominated them.

[Doctor MJ]

Yep. The Laker's F/C rotation when Shaq was out consisted of Horry, Samaki, and Slava. Even When Shaq came back, he wasn't quite himself, and LA just had no depth that year up front.

Miami on the otherhand, had Shaq, Zo, Haslem. So they were much stronger up front offensively, and defintiely defensively.

Yup, Shaq's amazing. Even as an old man, all you have to do is surround him with a vastly superior offensive player and 2 superior front court defenders and one of the great coaches in history, and he can carry you to a championship. In the finals, he only scored 13 PPG and the Mavs still couldn't beat him, he's just that good.

Makes me wonder how I can possibly think Hakeem's in his class when he required an 8-time title winner like Robert Horry to make him a winner.

[34Dayz]

Shaq was still pretty good even in 06... your really underestimating him Doc, he averaged 20/9/2BPG in the RS and was defended heavily by the Mavs in the Finals being double teamed pretty much everytime he caught the ball, he was certainly the 2nd biggest reason they were able to win the title after Wade.. I know most think Wade was far more valuable that year but I'd say at worst it was 60/40 in terms of importance and perhaps even 50/50 if you really think about it.

He also put up 19/9 over the entire PS and it had some very strong series b4 the Finals started where I mentioned Dallas did a pretty good job of slowing him down but allowed Wade to torch them.

Also would like to give some credit to Mourning who I feel was the cherry on top for that Heat team.. his defense in the Finals was tremendous and I vividly remember some amazing blocks he had.

[colts18]

Some people are pretending like Shaq didn't have an impact for the 06 Heat because of a 6 game sample, but the Heat were 42-17 (.711) with him (58 win pace) and 10-13 (.435) without him (36 win pace). He didn't really play awful in the finals outside of shooting 14-48 from the FT line. He shot 60.7 FG% and averaged 10.2 reb and 2.8 AST. If he just shot 50% from the FT line, he would have averaged 15.3 PPG on .596 TS%. His finals was mostly a result of bad luck. If you use the binomial distribution and say Shaq's true FT% is 50%, the odds of him making just 14 or less FT's is 0.28%. That's right, about 1 in 363 chance he would have shot bad.

[Doctor MJ]

Shaq was still pretty good even in 06... your really underestimating him Doc, he averaged 20/9/2BPG in the RS and was defended heavily by the Mavs in the Finals being double teamed pretty much everytime he caught the ball, he was certainly the 2nd biggest reason they were able to win the title after Wade.. I know most think Wade was far more valuable that year but I'd say at worst it was 60/40 in terms of importance and perhaps even 50/50 if you really think about it.

He also put up 19/9 over the entire PS and it had some very strong series b4 the Finals started where I mentioned Dallas did a pretty good job of slowing him down but allowed Wade to torch them.

Also would like to give some credit to Mourning who I feel was the cherry on top for that Heat team.. his defense in the Finals was tremendous and I vividly remember some amazing blocks he had.

Totally fair for Shaq to get some support after I have fun at Shaq's expense. Your points are valid, though they do compel me to say one last thing:

-People have talked about Wade not being able to win without Shaq, but it's crucial to understand in their championship year they only won 52 games, only 5 games better than what they managed in '09-10. Miami's title has everything to do with great timing combined with an all time great performance from Wade at the end of it.

They don't win the title without Shaq, but to give Shaq credit anywhere comparable to what he deserves for his 3-peat, or Hakeem's repeat, is crazy. Quite literally, both players have many non-title winning years that deserve far more attention.

[ElGee]

I'm contemplating a vote change at this point, although I'm not sure if it matters.

Just to note,
in 1991 Houston's DRtg with Hakeem was 102.7, without 110.1 (+7.4)
In 1992 Houston's DRtg with Hakeem was 107.7, without 117.2 (+9.5)
in 1995 Houston's DRtg with Hakeem was 108.6, without 116.8 (+8.2)

Do you chalk that up to a stretch like Matt Bullard or Pete Chilcutt replacing him? Does it necessitate a Bob McAdoo offense/defense tradeoff?

I'm not sure, as I've said before. But at the 11th hour, I do have pause about this vote. I *think* Olajuwon may have had a slightly better career, and that's before trying to tease out peak (which I'm having reservations just handing to Shaq). Actually, Olajuwon's situation in Houston reminds me of Garnett's in Minnesota. And I think, just maybe, if he were paired with another stellar big, or an all-star caliber guard to buoy the offense, this guy would have given you an elite contender annually. (As it ended up, they were pretty darn scrappy from 93-95.) Compare that to Shaq, and I'm wondering what the weakest team he played on was from 94-06...

And Doc, Horry only has 7 rings.

[34Dayz]

Hakeem had Drexler and although he was past his prime he was still pretty good atleast on the same level as 00 Bryant.

He also had a couple of really good shooters on that Squad.. I think Hakeems supporting casts get underrated alot (not saying they were excellent) and I think Hakeems supporting cast was better then Shaqs when they met that year in the Finals.

[An Unbiased Fan]

I'm contemplating a vote change at this point, although I'm not sure if it matters.

Just to note,
in 1991 Houston's DRtg with Hakeem was 102.7, without 110.1 (+7.4)
In 1992 Houston's DRtg with Hakeem was 107.7, without 117.2 (+9.5)
in 1995 Houston's DRtg with Hakeem was 108.6, without 116.8 (+8.2)

Do you chalk that up to a stretch like Matt Bullard or Pete Chilcutt replacing him? Does it necessitate a Bob McAdoo offense/defense tradeoff?

I'm not sure, as I've said before. But at the 11th hour, I do have pause about this vote. I *think* Olajuwon may have had a slightly better career, and that's before trying to tease out peak (which I'm having reservations just handing to Shaq). Actually, Olajuwon's situation in Houston reminds me of Garnett's in Minnesota. And I think, just maybe, if he were paired with another stellar big, or an all-star caliber guard to buoy the offense, this guy would have given you an elite contender annually. (As it ended up, they were pretty darn scrappy from 93-95.) Compare that to Shaq, and I'm wondering what the weakest team he played on was from 94-06...

And Doc, Horry only has 7 rings.

My only problem with using numbers "with & without" a star, is that it penalizes players who had decent bakcups, and elevates those with poor backups.

The 94' Bulls are a perfect example of a team still performing at a good level without a missing star(Jordan). Pippen assumed the main role of volume scorer(though not nearly as well as MJ could), and they won 55 games, with the addition of Kukoc. Conversely, the 97' Spurs compeltely collapsed without DRob, but that's because they had Greg Anderson & Will Perdue filling in.

This gets even more sketchy when you take stretches during a season.

[Jordan23Forever]

Lebron's AST% has been better than both Kobe & Bird's. In his prime, Lebron has been on par with Kobe in points created, and slighty ahead of Bird.

A better question people should start asking is whether Bird is the best Point-Forward ever, or is that Lebron. Lebron's PTS% & AST% are higher than Bird's, and he's a better defender. Now for me, I count playoff performances & success, along with longevity & accolades, so Bird is still ahead by a decent margin at this point. However....for those who think playoff success 7 accolades shouldn't matter, and that "peak" is the most important thing, how is Bird ahead of Lebron?

Because Bird was able to put up those numbers without monopolizing the ball (he was probably the least ball-dominant all-time level player) and while playing alongside top-flight talent. As Lebron's numbers this past season demonstrate, it's much harder to put up all-time level numbers when you have a lot of talent on your team. And Bird's mid-80's Celts had even more talent than the 2011 Heat.