RealGM Top 100 List #6

[Owly]

Just because he hasn't got any traction so far, some of the arguments for Oscar Robertson.

With without in ’68 (chosen because it’s his largest absence, I haven’t done this with other years) is pretty huge. Obviously preface this with:
(a) With without is noisy, it is measuring things that aren’t what you’re trying to measure (quality of backup, coaching adjustments, schedule etc).
(b) It’s a small sample
Over the year Cincinnati were -69 (82 games), with Robertson they were +118 (65 games, +1.815385 per game). That means without him they were -187 without him (17 games, -11 per game). That suggests a value of roughly 13 points (in that particular context, with all the caveats above) over his reserve (Guy Rodgers).

And with regard to the numbers it’s not the triple double average across his first six years. And obviously his rebounding prowess is overstated by pace, more misses back then and high minutes. But you can go too far denigrating his rebounding, I’ve seen it noted that he was 7th on his team in rebounding percentage in his largest boxscore rebounding year (’62 12.5 rpg), but that needs placing in context, firstly they rebounded by committee and there are a bunch of players grouped together, and then amongst actual rotation players Robertson is 4th behind the center, backup center and power forward. And it wasn’t like this was a team on which it was easy to grab rebounds, Wayne Embry who on a weaker team had competed with Chamberlain and Russell in rebound rate. The Royals rebound total is slightly below the average but this is misleading because they took less than the average amount of fgas, made the highest percentage of them and given opponents ppg presumably allowed a high fg% so I don’t think there were a lot easy rebounds available. Then too consider his burden amongst guys with a playmaking responsibility, you have Wilt as a better rebounder in that era, and one year of Gola (a role player) then it’s Robertson for the first half of the http://bkref.com/tiny/kVq7w and that’s per minute.

His assist numbers aren’t inflated given the slightly lower fg% and in particular the much tighter/meaner scorekeeping on assists which pretty much counteracts the increased pace. And because composite boxscore metrics are based on the modern era assumptions/estimations of the value of an assist Robertson is somewhat cheated here. And here too note the margin of superiority over the next best guard. Guy Rodgers had a couple of seasons where he snatched the assists crown, and another year with 10.7, but then the rest of his career he couldn’t get over 9 a game. From 60-61 to 68-69 Robertson averaged 10.5 per game, Rodgers is closest over that span (and it nicely matches his career) with 8.3 (now Rodgers does have a per minute edge, but played on some very fast and some gimmicky teams, and the reason he wasn’t on court as much as Robertson is he was so far off at everything else, plus Robertson had to call his own number more often) http://bkref.com/tiny/WLTix . It’s notable how far Robertson and Rodgers are ahead of the rest of the pack in assist% (for the years we have it, the later half of the 60s, and Robertson racked up more of his assists in the first half of the decade, whilst Rodgers did better in the latter half than he had earlier).

He was also the eras most efficient scorer ( cf: http://bkref.com/tiny/5loDk http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... op_10.html ) and iirc consistently led his teams to the best offensive ratings.

Put off by the lack of team success? Look at what the management did with talent around him.
Jerry Lucas and Larry Siegfried lost to ABL, with Siegfried somehow lost to Boston when the ABL folded; Mel Daniels to ABA; Bob Boozer traded for nothing of value; Bob Love exposed to expansion; Freddie Lewis exposed to expansion; Louie Dampier went to ABA; draft picks either wasted or never given minutes, not developed and/or given away for nothing or simply traded for less than equal value (for those who weren’t worthless Flynn Robinson, Wayne Embry, Happy Hairston and Jim Fox).
Cincinnati were cheap and poorly managed. Of course the ABA guys wouldn’t have been in the 60s NBA as they were in the 60s ABA. But they could play, and be assets.

The icing on the cake would be the accolades and critics rankings (First Team All-NBA, called the best player by Koppett, consistently top 10 in all published rankings including two first place rankings, plus being voted player of the century by the NABC). Actually one ranking had him outside the top 10. Keith Thompson’s Heroes of the Hardcourt. It had him 19th. Behind Heinsohn. So all published, non-insane rankings.

I understand if this is too much advocacy for some peoples taste and welcome reactions against Robertson being in the discussion at this point. Just that for me he's at least worthy of being in the discussion here, so I pulled together the main cases for him.

[colts18]

KG did underachieve quite a bit in the playoffs:

97: -7.48
98: 0.53
99: 0.87
00: 4.37
01: 1.42
02: -6.26
03: -3.62
04: 3.96
Overall: 0.80 SRS

In his Minnesota playoff prime from 99-04 his teams O ratings were -1.0 relative to their opponent. He had a .513 TS%, 103 O rating, and 3.5 TOV/game in that span.

He certainly let his teammates down offensively in 2004. His teammates actually performed well in the playoffs offensively but KG's offense was bad: .513 TS%, 100 O rating, over 4 TOV/game.



00 Shaq, 11 Dirk, 03 Duncan, 04 KG, 94 Hakeem. This is what their top 6 playoff minutes getter averaged in the playoffs:

Code: Select all

            PTS   TS%   TRB    AST
Shaq      9.8    0.511   4.0   2.6
Hakeem    10.5   0.536   4.4   3.3
Duncan    10.2   0.512   4.3   2.1
Garnett   10.7   0.551   3.5   2.3
Dirk      10.5   0.557   4.3   2.8


Code: Select all

      PER   WS/48   O rating   D rating   Ortg - Drtg
Shaq      13.7   0.090   108.8   108.3   0.5
Hakeem    14.1   0.101   108.2   106.5   1.7
Duncan    13.1   0.111   103.5   98.7   4.8
Garnett   14.9   0.114   110.8   103.5   7.3
Dirk      15.9   0.134   113.8   107.0   6.8

If you take out Shaq and KG's contributions during their 04 series, KG's cast had a .528 TS% and 107 O rating compared to Shaq's .513 TS% and 104 O rating. That is Peak KG vs out of peak Shaq and he still got outplayed by Shaq.

[lorak]

Was someone else forced to retire that I’m not aware of? The players that were vocally against having Magic come back were against having basketball players people tested for any infectious diseases

Magic's sex life was the reason why he retired, not opinions of other players or anything else, ergo you can't say he retired because of factors outside of his control, because these factors were totally under his control - the only problem was that he wasn't able to control himself. Sad but true.

Magic’s “sex life” has nothing to do with this. Magic Johnson was forced to stay out of the league in 1993 because he was HIV positive.

So why he was HIV positive if not because of his sex life (so thing completely under HIS control)?

[Owly]

Was someone else forced to retire that I’m not aware of? The players that were vocally against having Magic come back were against having basketball players people tested for any infectious diseases

Magic's sex life was the reason why he retired, not opinions of other players or anything else, ergo you can't say he retired because of factors outside of his control, because these factors were totally under his control - the only problem was that he wasn't able to control himself. Sad but true.

Magic’s “sex life” has nothing to do with this. Magic Johnson was forced to stay out of the league in 1993 because he was HIV positive. People of all types, with all types of “sex lives” contract the HIV virus. The league publicly stated they were fine with Magic’s return in 1993 (see David Stern’s interview and commentary on it). Players let their fears—some of which were medical, some of which were, frankly, related to not liking and/or having Magic lead the Lakers in the WC—override league policy and medical fact and consensus. If you don’t know this, look it up.

Magic's sex life doesn't have nothing to do with this. And people with "all sorts of sex lives" don't contract HIV (the abstinent for example). Magic's proclivity for sexual conquests (and his choice not to use protection) are things which led to an increased risk of (and in his case the reality of) STDs.

It's getting off topic and into uncomfortable territory trying to ascertain how responsible for injuries etc people are and players' sex lives. But if we have to ...

So as to the original statement "career shortened by factors outside his control" it is at best part of the story. Obviously no one "deserves" HIV, but he was responsible for his actions which led his getting the disease. So that part whilst certainly related to chance (there are many NBA players who have had many children with many partners and so one might suggest statistically were at risk in a way broadly similar to Magic), it wasn't outside his control. And yes the league okayed him him playing in '92-'93 but then it was in his control to keep playing. From what I recall he just got tired of his HIV being the story. And it's not like he would have played a full schedule as he was, so his career wasn't going to follow the previously expected trajectory anyway.

I don't think theres a basis either for saying that players fears were self-interested, basketball decisions. Just a climate of fear and lack of understanding. Plus HIV being much more deadly at that time than it soon would be to those wealthy enough to get medication like Magic does. At that time it was percieved as a death sentence. And that will scare people.

Not that this is something I particularly want to spend time discussing.

[ardee]

Vote: Earvin Magic Johnson

My reasoning from the last thread:

This was between him and Duncan to me. I basically go with Magic here because I think from '85 to '91 he put up a consistent stretch of GOAT level basketball that Duncan never matched. As much as Duncan supporters rave about his '01 to '07 prime, he doesn't really have a consistent prime stretch. He was injured in 2005 and arguably outplayed by his own teammate in the Playoffs. 2006 he was a shadow of himself in the regular season.

Really, Duncan IMO has three, maybe four seasons that are on the same level as a prime Magic: 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2007.

Now Duncan obviously has a bunch of other solid old man years, but going off rico's post earlier: longevity is great but to me the prime gap is more important. Having 6-7 years of a prime Magic who is the best offensive player in the league gives you a better chance of winning titles than a few years of prime Duncan, along with a series of lesser years where he gives you a few percent chance of winning the title.

It's close, it's not as if Duncan's longevity doesn't matter. These guys are even in a lot of ways, including ability to lift lesser supporting casts: check Magic's teams from '89 to '91. Those are nice names but you have to watch the games to see how much guys like Scott and Cooper depended on Magic to help them score. Magic's post-Kareem work more than matches '01-'03 Duncan on a bad team.

So yeah, I could go either way here, and probably will vote for Duncan in a runoff against Shaq. But for now, this is my vote.

Now it seems like Shaq is the pain competitor here so I'll include an analysis of why I prefer Magic:

Shaq has two years better than anything Magic ever produced, '00 and '01. But Magic measures up quite well after that. '87 is probably no. 3 on the list of best years between them, and after that, I think '89, '90 and '91 measure up pretty well compared to Shaq's other top years '98 and '02. I'm not too high on too many others of Shaq's 90s years given the massive amounts of games he missed.

I can let it go in '01 and '02, I mean 10-12 games is one thing... But an average of 27 games a year from '96-'98 is a real problem. If Magic missed 27 games on one of his late 80s Lakers teams when Kareem had declined, they'd probably not have HCA in any round.

And other than '00 and '01 Playoffs, Shaq is one of the few ATGs who doesn't have the defense argument on Magic. I also think Magic's defense is brought down by Bird fans, when in reality I think the two were similarly impactful on that end in a team sense... Magic was a key to Riley's trapping schemes in the early 80s and remained great in the passing lanes in his later years.

I also explained why I take him over LeBron, whom I'll be voting for next if Magic makes it.

I think 6 is too low for Magic in any case, hope he doesn't drop. Let's reward the greatest offensive player of all time, and the greatest player of the greatest franchise in NBA history.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n1-KIcoIzU[/youtube]

[Dipper 13]

With without in ’68 (chosen because it’s his largest absence, I haven’t done this with other years) is pretty huge. Obviously preface this with:
(a) With without is noisy, it is measuring things that aren’t what you’re trying to measure (quality of backup, coaching adjustments, schedule etc).
(b) It’s a small sample
Over the year Cincinnati were -69 (82 games), with Robertson they were +118 (65 games, +1.815385 per game). That means without him they were -187 without him (17 games, -11 per game). That suggests a value of roughly 13 points (in that particular context, with all the caveats above) over his reserve (Guy Rodgers).

The Big O: My Life, My Times, My Game - Oscar Robertson

[SactoKingsFan]

I see LeBron and Shaq as the clear candidates at #6 for various reasons. Both are all-time talents that have displayed a rare level of physical dominance. None of the other players in the top 10 discussion (Hakeem, Magic, Bird, KG, Oscar) can match their combined peak, prime and physical dominance.


Prime RS:
LeBron (09-14): 30.2 PER, .613 TS%, 120 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 104.0 WS, .290 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced
Shaq (94-05): 28.5 PER, .584 TS%, 114 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 145.9 WS, .234 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced

Prime PS:
LeBron (09-14): 29.4 PER, .599 TS%, 119 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 26.3 WS, .270 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced
Shaq (94-05): 27.5 PER, .567 TS%, 112 ORtg, 103 DRtg, 28.7 WS, .202 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced

Prime RS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) RS: 38.5 PTS, 10.4 RB, 9.9 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.6 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) RS: 37.5 PTS, 16.3 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.9 STL, 3.4 BLK, 3.9 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss

Prime PS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) PS Per 100: 37.1 PTS, 11.3 RB, 8.1 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.2 BLK, 4.2 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) PS Per 100: 35.8 PTS, 16.9 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 3.1 BLK, 4.1 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss

-----

Career Stats:

Spoiler:

LeBron Career (04-14) RS: 27.8 PER, .581 TS%, 116 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 168.5 WS, .243 WS/48
Shaq Career (93-11) RS: 26.4 PER, .586 TS%, 113 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 181.7 WS, .208 WS/48

LeBron Career (04-14) RS Per 100: 36.9 PTS, 9.7 RB, 9.2 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.5 TOV
Shaq Career (93-11) RS Per 100: 35.2 PTS, 16.1 RB, 3.7 AST, 0.9 STL, 3.4 BLK, 4.1 TOV

LeBron Career PS (06-14): 27.7 PER, .578 TS%, 116 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 33.8 WS, .242 WS/48
Shaq Career PS (94-11): 26.1 PER, .565 TS%, 110 ORtg, 103 DRtg, 31.1 WS, .184 WS/48

LeBron Career PS (06-14) Per 100: 36.3 PTS, 10.9 RB, 8.4 AST, 2.2 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.5 TOV
Shaq Career PS (94-11) Per 100: 34.7 PTS, 16.6 RB, 3.8 AST, 0.8 STL, 3.0 BLK, 4.3 TOV

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sle01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lsh01.html

-----

ASPM (Advanced Statistical Plus/Minus:

1 Year Peak ASPM:

LeBron: 10.8
Shaq: 7.5

Top 3 ASPM Seasons:

LeBron: 10.8, 10.5, 9.6
Shaq: 7.5, 6.4, 6.1

Top 5 ASPM Seasons:

LeBron: 10.8, 10.5, 9.6, 8.9, 8.7
Shaq: 7.5, 6.4, 6.1, 6.1, 6.0

LeBron’s 5 best ASPM seasons (08, 09, 10, 12, 13) were better than Shaq’s 2000 peak (ASPM = 7.5)


VORP (Value Over Replacement Player):

1 Year Peak VORP:

LeBron: 10.2
Shaq: 7.8

Top 3 VORP Seasons:

LeBron: 10.2, 9.7, 8.6
Shaq: 7.8, 6.8, 6.2,

Top 5 VORP Seasons:

LeBron: 10.2, 9.7, 8.6, 8.6, 8.4
Shaq: 7.8, 6.8, 6.2, 6.2, 5.7

LeBron also has 5 seasons (08, 09, 10, 12, 13) with a higher VORP than Shaq’s 2000 peak season.

http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/aspm-and-vorp/


Although Shaq has the edge in longevity and overall Finals performances, per 100 stats, PER, WS, WS/48, ASPM and VORP indicate that LeBron has produced the superior peak and prime. LeBron has also been significantly more durable (never had a significant injury) and has the more diverse skill set (elite passer, versatile defender, shooting, etc). IMO, Shaq’s longevity and Finals performances are not enough to rank him over a more durable player with a better peak, statistically more impressive prime and top 5 overall skill set.


VOTE: LeBron James

[colts18]

The Celtics were still a solid team without KG from 08-11

40-20 (.667) W-L (55 win pace)
+4.1 MOV

To put that into perspective, last season's Heat team won 54 games and had a +4.8 MOV

[magicmerl]

I just want to say i don't get the lack of love for magic. Russell is praised for being the best defensive player ever, so why don't we do the same for magic for being the greatest offensive player ever?? I'm appauled that Magic will likely end up 7th or lower.

It's not actually clear to me which of the players being considered here (LeBron, Shaq, Magic) is actually the greatest offensive player (of the players not already voted in).

[Doctor MJ]

When I see people talking about "advanced stats can be wrong" it says to me the person really just isn't comfortable with data analysis

Exactly the response I expected. Basically if we don't agree with you, then we're wrong. You can paint it in different words, but that's basically what you just said. Guess what, I don't agree, and I'm in very good company.

That isn't what I said.

Look, right now you probably see me as a guy who thinks he knows more than everyone else all the time, and since you don't think that's the case right now that means I'm the type who just gets wrong ideas in my head and they stay there forever.

As others have mentioned though, my list looks far different from even a few years ago...and the that's nothing compared to when I joined realgm in 2005. I'm always looking to learn, and always questioning my thought process, doing everything I can to make sure I don't get stuck with a bias.

And yet because of how much effort that has taken I can say with confidence that if the 2005 version of me showed up now in this project I would not be able to persuade him of everything I now currently believe. These things take time and I respect that.

My advice to you was meant to show that respect, to make you feel more
Comfortable, but also to encourage you to continue to grow. And if that to you seems too condescending to tolerate I don't have a better way to say it unfortunately.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[colts18]

I see LeBron and Shaq as the clear candidates at #6 for various reasons. Both are all-time talents that have displayed a rare level of physical dominance. None of the other players in the top 10 discussion (Hakeem, Magic, Bird, KG, Oscar) can match their combined peak, prime and physical dominance.


Prime RS:
LeBron (09-14): 30.2 PER, .613 TS%, 120 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 104.0 WS, .290 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced
Shaq (94-05): 28.5 PER, .584 TS%, 114 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 145.9 WS, .234 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced

Prime PS:
LeBron (09-14): 29.4 PER, .599 TS%, 119 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 26.3 WS, .270 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced
Shaq (94-05): 27.5 PER, .567 TS%, 112 ORtg, 103 DRtg, 28.7 WS, .202 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced

Prime RS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) RS: 38.5 PTS, 10.4 RB, 9.9 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.6 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) RS: 37.5 PTS, 16.3 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.9 STL, 3.4 BLK, 3.9 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss

Prime PS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) PS Per 100: 37.1 PTS, 11.3 RB, 8.1 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.2 BLK, 4.2 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) PS Per 100: 35.8 PTS, 16.9 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 3.1 BLK, 4.1 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss

-----

I don't know if you realized it but you compared LeBron's 6 year prime to Shaq's 12 year prime. The key words in that sentence is 6 and 12. 12 is double 6. So Shaq's prime was double the length of LeBron's which should be taken into account.

[E-Balla]

Vote for #6 - Magic

Click spoiler to see my first 2 posts in favor of magic (includes some videos):

Spoiler:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... sma02.html

12x all star
10x all NBA (9 1st, 1 2nd)
3x reg season MVP (6 other top 3 finishes)
3x Finals MVP
5 championships
Career leader in APG

Not many players started their career off with a bang the way magic did. He led the lakers to 60 wins and a famous finals clinching performance against the sixers with 42 pts, 15 rebounds, and 7 assists. This came against a sixers team who ranked 1st in DRTG that season. To have that kind of impact out the gate as a rookie is almost unfathomable (yes, i'm aware russell had a similar impact).

His marked consistency throughout his career from a statistical as well as team standpoint (lakers made the finals 9 times from 80-91) was remarkable. For a guy who never really developed a 3 pt shot and did play guard regardless of size, posting a TS% of 60+ for the majority of his career was more than impressive.

No doubt he had plenty of talent around him over the years, but he was the key to navigating that team to their success throughout the 80s (queue the "tragic johnson" stories...) He had a truly unique impact on the court due to decision making that was only rivaled by a select few in the history of the league.

Haven't been able to find any RAPM data from the 80s, but this chart from the 90s indicates that even late in his career, magic was at the top of the list:

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/90s.html

We need to consider the fact that magic was forced to retire at 31 due to illness, and not a basketball related injury. It makes me wonder how productive and successful he would've been up to say age 35. I know it's discussed, but not nearly as much as I would expect. In his last season he played in 79 games, averaging the following:

19 PPG, 7 RPG, 12.5 APG, 1 SPG

~47% FG, 38% 3PT, 86% FT, 62% TS

117/107 OFF/DEF rating, .18 WS/48

His playoff production taking the lakers to the finals that year didn't drop off much at all, scoring more PPG on only a slightly lower TS%. Considering he still put up respectable #s at 36 after being out of the league for 5 years, I could see his production only dipping slightly each season from 31 to 35.

I can't help but think about how Walton's short prime is valued so highly when the majority of his career was derailed by injuries. I'm not saying he isn't deserving, but a guy like ralph sampson (who yes, wasn't as good as walton) for example doesn't really get the same treatment.

*EDIT* - Long story short, it's just something to think about. My ranking magic #3 is still based on his NBA career as a whole only.

I'd like to clarify 1 other thing about wondering how magic's career would progress if he never got HIV: there's a significant and consistent sample size upon which we could extrapolate. That isn't the case for guys like sabonis who came into the league post prime or walton who in his very short prime only played in 60+ games in 1 season.

Again, not part of my ranking. Just think he's more of a unique case than others.

Some game footage of note:

85 Playoffs G5 vs. Blazers - 34 PTS, 9 REB, 19 AST (closeout game)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 70LAL.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWm93xi3x8U[/youtube]

88-99 vs. Sixers - 32 PTS, 11 REB, 20 AST

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 80PHI.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoELfNFZaQ[/youtube]

88 Playoffs G7 vs. Jazz - 23 PTS, 9 REB, 16 AST

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10LAL.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qa6GJo2fCYQ[/youtube]

87 Finals G4 vs. Celtics - 29 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST (famous game winning hook shot down the middle)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 90BOS.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n1-KIcoIzU[/youtube]

80 Finals G6 vs. Sixers - 42 PTS, 15 REB, 7 AST (closeout game without kareem)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 60PHI.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au7WJbus5BM[/youtube]

A few other thoughts on Magic:

When he couldn't lead his team all the way to a championship, he still played at an elite level in elimination losses.

STATS IN ELIMINATION LOSSES AFTER 85 (when bball ref got full playoff box scores)



I left 89 out since he was injured and only played 5 min in the last game against DET. In one way or another, he put his team on his back and elevated his game, doing all he could to help them win. Can't win em all, though.

I'd also argue that he was a top 3 basketball mind of all time, and if you want to be conservative he was very clearly top 5. His on the fly decision making was incredible, and he followed that up with consistent play overall. If magic didn't live up to expectations, his truly unique skill set wouldn't have been as impressive. The fact that his level of play paralleled that skill set puts him in very small company.

Also, per ronnymac2:

We get essentially 4 different Magic Johnsons:

1. We get swiss army knife Magic, the triple-double machine with his best defense.
2. Then when Nixon leaves, we get Super PG Magic.
3. Then he gets the keys and we see 24 point, 12 assist, supr post game PEAK Magic.
4. Finally we get unstoppable efficiency monster Magic with a 3-point shot and a perfect post game.

I'm not a huge fan of the term "portability" being thrown around these days (it gives me this negative feeling as it seems to go hand in hand with people who over-emphasize "the right way to play"). That said, I think ronnymac2's post really exemplifies how magic was able to change his game several times throughout his career and still remain a consistent force production-wise as well as leading his team to success. No, he doesn't have duncan's longevity, but when he retired 12 years into his career, he was still an elite NBA player who finished 2nd in MVP voting.

As an aside, have these different forms for RAPM basically become the new WARP? RAPM has controlled the discussion right out of the gate, and i haven't seen much mention of WARP (not that i'm real fan of it, anyway). I just remember there being some serious WARP fiends out there as early as a year ago.

Great post. Here's his numbers in elimination series:
Overall: 32 games (5-27) - 41.2 mpg, 20.1/7.7/12.3, 57.7 TS%, 18.9 TOV%
80-84: 14 games (3-11) - 42.9 mpg, 18.1/9.0/11.9, 53.8 TS%, 21.9 TOV%
85-91: 18 games (2-16) - 39.8 mpg, 21.7/6.7/12.7, 60.6 TS%, 16.6 TOV%

Overall in non-elimination series: 158 games - 39.4 mpg, 19.4/7.7/12.4, 59.5 TS%, 17.7 TOV%
80-84 in non-elimination series: 59 games - 40.0 mpg, 17.7/9.2/10.8, 58.2 TS%, 18.1 TOV%
85-91 in non-elimination series: 99 games - 39.0 mpg, 20.3/6.8/13.3, 60.1 TS%, 17.6 TOV%

Notes:
80-84. This is 81, 83, and 84 getting us these results and the teams are the 81 Rockets (bad defense), 83 Sixers (great defense), and the 84 Celtics (great defense). All 3 teams at least made the NBA Finals, had the reigning MVP (I know MVPs better than I thought because I immediately recognized this), and 2 of the losses were in the NBA Finals. In those elimination series outside of 81 where he was bad in all ways (and he missed most of the season with an injury) he was at least scoring pretty efficiently. Overall I wouldn't say he was bad but he definitely was not top 10 all time level yet.

85-91. And this is why it doesn't matter that he wasn't top ten all time level yet. From 85-91 he was amazing. Seriously if we did an extended peak project (maybe 5 years lets say) Magic would probably come top 3 for a project like this (most likely second but I'm not sure with you guys after seeing Magic drop so much here and Wilt get picked so high). Magic became better in every way (other than assists for obvious reasons and rebounding) when his team played better teams (or when his teams just didn't show up). Impressive doesn't begin to describe it.

I'm noticing if there's 2 things I look at more closely than others when making a choice on my vote it's consistency and playoff performance. I think in any setting it's easier to build a team that'll be great for 7 straight years out of 10 years (and you win all 7 years) than it is to build a team that'll be good for all 10 years (and you'll have to deal with losing 3 of those years because your star player flaked in some way).

[E-Balla]

I see LeBron and Shaq as the clear candidates at #6 for various reasons. Both are all-time talents that have displayed a rare level of physical dominance. None of the other players in the top 10 discussion (Hakeem, Magic, Bird, KG, Oscar) can match their combined peak, prime and physical dominance.


Prime RS:
LeBron (09-14): 30.2 PER, .613 TS%, 120 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 104.0 WS, .290 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced
Shaq (94-05): 28.5 PER, .584 TS%, 114 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 145.9 WS, .234 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced

Prime PS:
LeBron (09-14): 29.4 PER, .599 TS%, 119 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 26.3 WS, .270 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced
Shaq (94-05): 27.5 PER, .567 TS%, 112 ORtg, 103 DRtg, 28.7 WS, .202 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced

Prime RS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) RS: 38.5 PTS, 10.4 RB, 9.9 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.6 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) RS: 37.5 PTS, 16.3 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.9 STL, 3.4 BLK, 3.9 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss

Prime PS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) PS Per 100: 37.1 PTS, 11.3 RB, 8.1 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.2 BLK, 4.2 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) PS Per 100: 35.8 PTS, 16.9 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 3.1 BLK, 4.1 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss

-----

I don't know if you realized it but you compared LeBron's 6 year prime to Shaq's 12 year prime. The key words in that sentence is 6 and 12. 12 is double 6. So Shaq's prime was double the length of LeBron's which should be taken into account.

Exactly. If you take Shaq from 98-03 (6 seasons) his numbers clearly top Lebron's. 29.9 RS PER, 29.6 PS PER from that time period (I can't remember his other numbers).

[Basketballefan]

Anyone have a tally?

[E-Balla]

Just because he hasn't got any traction so far, some of the arguments for Oscar Robertson.

With without in ’68 (chosen because it’s his largest absence, I haven’t done this with other years) is pretty huge. Obviously preface this with:
(a) With without is noisy, it is measuring things that aren’t what you’re trying to measure (quality of backup, coaching adjustments, schedule etc).
(b) It’s a small sample
Over the year Cincinnati were -69 (82 games), with Robertson they were +118 (65 games, +1.815385 per game). That means without him they were -187 without him (17 games, -11 per game). That suggests a value of roughly 13 points (in that particular context, with all the caveats above) over his reserve (Guy Rodgers).

And with regard to the numbers it’s not the triple double average across his first six years. And obviously his rebounding prowess is overstated by pace, more misses back then and high minutes. But you can go too far denigrating his rebounding, I’ve seen it noted that he was 7th on his team in rebounding percentage in his largest boxscore rebounding year (’62 12.5 rpg), but that needs placing in context, firstly they rebounded by committee and there are a bunch of players grouped together, and then amongst actual rotation players Robertson is 4th behind the center, backup center and power forward. And it wasn’t like this was a team on which it was easy to grab rebounds, Wayne Embry who on a weaker team had competed with Chamberlain and Russell in rebound rate. The Royals rebound total is slightly below the average but this is misleading because they took less than the average amount of fgas, made the highest percentage of them and given opponents ppg presumably allowed a high fg% so I don’t think there were a lot easy rebounds available. Then too consider his burden amongst guys with a playmaking responsibility, you have Wilt as a better rebounder in that era, and one year of Gola (a role player) then it’s Robertson for the first half of the http://bkref.com/tiny/kVq7w and that’s per minute.

His assist numbers aren’t inflated given the slightly lower fg% and in particular the much tighter/meaner scorekeeping on assists which pretty much counteracts the increased pace. And because composite boxscore metrics are based on the modern era assumptions/estimations of the value of an assist Robertson is somewhat cheated here. And here too note the margin of superiority over the next best guard. Guy Rodgers had a couple of seasons where he snatched the assists crown, and another year with 10.7, but then the rest of his career he couldn’t get over 9 a game. From 60-61 to 68-69 Robertson averaged 10.5 per game, Rodgers is closest over that span (and it nicely matches his career) with 8.3 (now Rodgers does have a per minute edge, but played on some very fast and some gimmicky teams, and the reason he wasn’t on court as much as Robertson is he was so far off at everything else, plus Robertson had to call his own number more often) http://bkref.com/tiny/WLTix . It’s notable how far Robertson and Rodgers are ahead of the rest of the pack in assist% (for the years we have it, the later half of the 60s, and Robertson racked up more of his assists in the first half of the decade, whilst Rodgers did better in the latter half than he had earlier).

He was also the eras most efficient scorer ( cf: http://bkref.com/tiny/5loDk http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... op_10.html ) and iirc consistently led his teams to the best offensive ratings.

Put off by the lack of team success? Look at what the management did with talent around him.
Jerry Lucas and Larry Siegfried lost to ABL, with Siegfried somehow lost to Boston when the ABL folded; Mel Daniels to ABA; Bob Boozer traded for nothing of value; Bob Love exposed to expansion; Freddie Lewis exposed to expansion; Louie Dampier went to ABA; draft picks either wasted or never given minutes, not developed and/or given away for nothing or simply traded for less than equal value (for those who weren’t worthless Flynn Robinson, Wayne Embry, Happy Hairston and Jim Fox).
Cincinnati were cheap and poorly managed. Of course the ABA guys wouldn’t have been in the 60s NBA as they were in the 60s ABA. But they could play, and be assets.

The icing on the cake would be the accolades and critics rankings (First Team All-NBA, called the best player by Koppett, consistently top 10 in all published rankings including two first place rankings, plus being voted player of the century by the NABC). Actually one ranking had him outside the top 10. Keith Thompson’s Heroes of the Hardcourt. It had him 19th. Behind Heinsohn. So all published, non-insane rankings.

I understand if this is too much advocacy for some peoples taste and welcome reactions against Robertson being in the discussion at this point. Just that for me he's at least worthy of being in the discussion here, so I pulled together the main cases for him.

Great post. I've always been high on Oscar and he was probably coming in this next batch after Shaq, Magic, and Hakeem get in for me.

I do have one question for the KG supporters though: Why KG over Oscar? I'm thinking maybe longevity?

[colts18]

Exactly. If you take Shaq from 98-03 (6 seasons) his numbers clearly top Lebron's. 29.9 RS PER, 29.6 PS PER from that time period (I can't remember his other numbers).

I made a post about Shaq's 98-03 prime 3 years ago

Regular season:
28.1 PPG
11.8 Reb
3.1 AST
2.8 Turnovers
2.4 Blk
.577 FG%
.585 TS%
29.9 PER
.255 WS/48

He lead the league in PER and FG% every year from 98-02

Postseason:
29.3 PPG
13.7 Reb
3.0 AST
2.4 BLK
.554 FG%
.565 TS%
29.6 PER
.228 WS/48

During the 3peat years he averaged 30-15-3, .55 FG%, 29.3 PER (that's right, his PER was better outside the 3 peat years than during them). In the finals he averaged 36-15-4, 3 blk, 60 FG%. To put Shaq's finals run into perspective, he had a 20-10 and 50 FG% (lowest was 52%) in every single game of the 15 game finals run and had 30-10 in 13 out of 15 games (including every game of Nets and Pacers series).

During this span, The Lakers are:
290-106: .732 With Shaq
33-31: .516 without Shaq

214-79: .731 with Kobe
28-7: .800 without Kobe

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1124737

[SactoKingsFan]

Spoiler:

I see LeBron and Shaq as the clear candidates at #6 for various reasons. Both are all-time talents that have displayed a rare level of physical dominance. None of the other players in the top 10 discussion (Hakeem, Magic, Bird, KG, Oscar) can match their combined peak, prime and physical dominance.


Prime RS:
LeBron (09-14): 30.2 PER, .613 TS%, 120 ORtg, 101 DRtg, 104.0 WS, .290 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced
Shaq (94-05): 28.5 PER, .584 TS%, 114 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 145.9 WS, .234 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced

Prime PS:
LeBron (09-14): 29.4 PER, .599 TS%, 119 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 26.3 WS, .270 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced
Shaq (94-05): 27.5 PER, .567 TS%, 112 ORtg, 103 DRtg, 28.7 WS, .202 WS/48
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_advanced

Prime RS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) RS: 38.5 PTS, 10.4 RB, 9.9 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.1 BLK, 4.6 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) RS: 37.5 PTS, 16.3 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.9 STL, 3.4 BLK, 3.9 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_poss

Prime PS Per 100 Poss:
LeBron Prime (09-14) PS Per 100: 37.1 PTS, 11.3 RB, 8.1 AST, 2.3 STL, 1.2 BLK, 4.2 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss
Shaq Prime (94-05) PS Per 100: 35.8 PTS, 16.9 RB, 4.1 AST, 0.8 STL, 3.1 BLK, 4.1 TOV
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... s_per_poss

-----

I don't know if you realized it but you compared LeBron's 6 year prime to Shaq's 12 year prime. The key words in that sentence is 6 and 12. 12 is double 6. So Shaq's prime was double the length of LeBron's which should be taken into account.

Yeah, I presented it that way just to show that LeBron's average true prime season was statistically better than Shaq's.

You can start LeBron's prime in 05 to add more seasons and LeBron still has the edge:

LeBron James: Advanced (2004-05 to 2013-14)

Spoiler:

From To G MP PER TS% eFG% FTr 3PAr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
2005 2014 763 30154 28.8 .590 .540 .441 .204 3.7 18.3 11.2 34.8 2.3 1.6 12.1 32.0 118 102 114.6 48.9 163.5 .260

28.8 PER, .590 TS%, 118 ORtg, 102 DRtg, 163.5 WS, .260 WS/48

Shaquille O'Neal: Advanced (1993-94 to 2004-05)

Spoiler:

From To G MP PER TS% eFG% FTr 3PAr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
1994 2005 801 29914 28.5 .584 .580 .577 .001 11.9 23.5 17.8 15.6 0.9 4.7 10.7 30.9 114 100 98.0 47.8 145.9 .234

28.5 PER, .584 TS%, 114 ORtg, 100 DRtg, 145.9 WS, .234 WS/48

[E-Balla]

KG did underachieve quite a bit in the playoffs:

97: -7.48
98: 0.53
99: 0.87
00: 4.37
01: 1.42
02: -6.26
03: -3.62
04: 3.96
Overall: 0.80 SRS

In his Minnesota playoff prime from 99-04 his teams O ratings were -1.0 relative to their opponent. He had a .513 TS%, 103 O rating, and 3.5 TOV/game in that span.

He certainly let his teammates down offensively in 2004. His teammates actually performed well in the playoffs offensively but KG's offense was bad: .513 TS%, 100 O rating, over 4 TOV/game.



00 Shaq, 11 Dirk, 03 Duncan, 04 KG, 94 Hakeem. This is what their top 6 playoff minutes getter averaged in the playoffs:

Code: Select all

            PTS   TS%   TRB    AST
Shaq      9.8    0.511   4.0   2.6
Hakeem    10.5   0.536   4.4   3.3
Duncan    10.2   0.512   4.3   2.1
Garnett   10.7   0.551   3.5   2.3
Dirk      10.5   0.557   4.3   2.8


Code: Select all

      PER   WS/48   O rating   D rating   Ortg - Drtg
Shaq      13.7   0.090   108.8   108.3   0.5
Hakeem    14.1   0.101   108.2   106.5   1.7
Duncan    13.1   0.111   103.5   98.7   4.8
Garnett   14.9   0.114   110.8   103.5   7.3
Dirk      15.9   0.134   113.8   107.0   6.8

If you take out Shaq and KG's contributions during their 04 series, KG's cast had a .528 TS% and 107 O rating compared to Shaq's .513 TS% and 104 O rating. That is Peak KG vs out of peak Shaq and he still got outplayed by Shaq.

Yeah I've been looking more into KG and the whole "bad supporting cast" argument and outside of the years he completely missed the playoffs (not counting 05 where he should've made the playoffs with that team), and 03 he should've won a lot more. I'm actually lower on KG's prime than ever before. I mean those teams around him weren't that bad in 02 (they were actually good this year and they had the best G rotation in the league next to the Mavs), 04, or 05 and they underachieved. I mean the front office was horribly incompetent but I'm not really buying into the TB/Chauncey/Wally/Cassell/Spree wasn't enough argument. Especially not when you consider their performances in those seasons.

[acrossthecourt]

Well I'm open to things. I'm leaning toward Magic or LeBron or maybe Shaq. Anyone got more info on Shaq pre-00?

I didn't include 1986 because I wanted it to be used for nefarious purposes and discredit Olajuwon. No, I originally used this for Ewing and picked 11 seasons for him, and I went with 11 for Olajuwon for a fair comparison. I didn't want to use seasons when the guys were too old or too young, but it's trickier with guys who have interesting careers like Shaq or Olajuwon. Maybe I'll include careers with different years.

I already added in the season and analyzed it quickly.

1986 was one of his best seasons by this metric and it's on par with Shaq's 11 year average. However, his usage doesn't climb as he faces better defenses. Adding in 1986, his coefficient for ORtg is now 0.98. So it's still almost exactly 0.1, which is the average you'd expect.

No weighing. Right now it's only a simple linear regression. When I get more data I'll dump it into R and mess around with it more. I could weigh the playoffs more. I said above it's playoffs included, so it's every regular season game and every playoff game.

What teams were used? Maybe this wasn't clear but it's everything. I'm taking his complete gamelogs and linking his performances to the opponent's defensive rating. It's every team.

Some residual analysis will be useful soon, but it's still a lot better to treat this as a continuous variable rather than the simple summaries people use.

Hmm, curious why you didn't include defensive rating and used 2005 as the cutoff as going past that hurts Shaq. Why not do it for their whole careers for their first 17 years?

Anyhow, I'm working on this data myself. It will be on an averages scale, since I've ventured into math like this a few times but I'm no expert.

Again, like I've said before, for a fair comparison I've chosen an 11 year chunk of each guy's career. I didn't choose Toronto Olajuwon either. I didn't want to use entire careers because it doesn't matter how Boston Shaq does because that has no bearing on his ranking here, but those games would influence the results.

I didn't include defensive rating (for the player, not the team, right?) because it's a bad approximation of defense. This is just focusing on scoring.

[acrossthecourt]

KG did underachieve quite a bit in the playoffs:

97: -7.48
98: 0.53
99: 0.87
00: 4.37
01: 1.42
02: -6.26
03: -3.62
04: 3.96
Overall: 0.80 SRS

In his Minnesota playoff prime from 99-04 his teams O ratings were -1.0 relative to their opponent. He had a .513 TS%, 103 O rating, and 3.5 TOV/game in that span.

He certainly let his teammates down offensively in 2004. His teammates actually performed well in the playoffs offensively but KG's offense was bad: .513 TS%, 100 O rating, over 4 TOV/game.



00 Shaq, 11 Dirk, 03 Duncan, 04 KG, 94 Hakeem. This is what their top 6 playoff minutes getter averaged in the playoffs:

Code: Select all

            PTS   TS%   TRB    AST
Shaq      9.8    0.511   4.0   2.6
Hakeem    10.5   0.536   4.4   3.3
Duncan    10.2   0.512   4.3   2.1
Garnett   10.7   0.551   3.5   2.3
Dirk      10.5   0.557   4.3   2.8


Code: Select all

      PER   WS/48   O rating   D rating   Ortg - Drtg
Shaq      13.7   0.090   108.8   108.3   0.5
Hakeem    14.1   0.101   108.2   106.5   1.7
Duncan    13.1   0.111   103.5   98.7   4.8
Garnett   14.9   0.114   110.8   103.5   7.3
Dirk      15.9   0.134   113.8   107.0   6.8

If you take out Shaq and KG's contributions during their 04 series, KG's cast had a .528 TS% and 107 O rating compared to Shaq's .513 TS% and 104 O rating. That is Peak KG vs out of peak Shaq and he still got outplayed by Shaq.

Yeah I've been looking more into KG and the whole "bad supporting cast" argument and outside of the years he completely missed the playoffs (not counting 05 where he should've made the playoffs with that team), and 03 he should've won a lot more. I'm actually lower on KG's prime than ever before. I mean those teams around him weren't that bad in 02 (they were actually good this year and they had the best G rotation in the league next to the Mavs), 04, or 05 and they underachieved. I mean the front office was horribly incompetent but I'm not really buying into the TB/Chauncey/Wally/Cassell/Spree wasn't enough argument. Especially not when you consider their performances in those seasons.

The problem is that those guys didn't play for him very long or concurrently, and their cast behind them was horrid.

Cassell played for them for only two seasons. One of those he was at 1500 minutes. When healthy, they won 58 games.

Sprewell played of them for only two seasons as well. They were his last two seasons before retirement. He was sub-50 TS% and sub 15 PER, below average. He was an athletic forward in his mid-30's and offered little.

Wally Szczerbiak was one of the worst all-star selections ever and was a limited player. His shooting was useful, but he was closer to a specialist than a star.

Billups, like those two, played only two seasons as well. This was before he broke out in Detroit. He was not an all-star player in Minnesota.

Brandon was great for them, but he only played 2.5 seasons for them. Mid-season trade and his last season was wrecked by injuries. He was a pretty good player but nothing spectacular.


Yeah, what a great cast. And what was worse was the bench behind them. The fact that you listed Sprewell makes me wonder if you even looked at his supporting cast at all besides just reading the names.