RealGM Top 100 List #7

[andrewww]

And like I asked in the previous post, isn't leading a quality cast deep a more important factor? Because Kobe with a decent cast has had far more success.

With a decent cast (the Miami Heat) Lebron James has accomplished more while performing at a higher level than Kobe. I'm going to compare the 2008-11 Lakers to the 2011-14 Heat in the postseason (since, for some reason we are only taking the postseason into account).

Lebron James (2011-14 Postseason, 87 games, 3628 minutes)
PER: 28.2
TS%: .595
eFG%: .541
TRB%: 12.6
AST%: 28.1
ORtg: 117

Kobe Bryant (2008-11 Postseason, 77 games, 3080 minutes)
PER: 24.3
TS%: .561
eFG%: .498
TRB%: 7.6
AST%: 24.5
ORtg: 112.5

In that time, the Heat went to 4 straight Finals and won two of them. In the time period that the Kobe was the #1 option on the Lakers over four years, they went to three straight Finals and won two of them.

But that was the playoffs in total...what if we just isolate their Finals performances (and to make things fair, I am just going to use their first three Finals appearances...meaning, I'm not going to include Lebron's 2014 Finals, which was at a level that Kobe is just not capable of doing).

Kobe Bryant (18 games, 765 minutes):
TS%: 52.1
eFG%: 45.4
TRB%: 8.8
AST%: 26.3
ORtg: 105.7

Lebron James (18 games, 783 minutes):
TS%: 53.6
eFG%: 49.5
TRB%: 13.3
AST%: 29.8
ORtg: 110.8

I could get into much more context-based stuff as well (how Lebron has had to deal with a worse coach and how his teammates were either injured or just outright putrid like Wade for the 2012 and 2013 Finals and yet they won, or Kobe needing his teammates to pick up the slack in all of Game 7 and needing Perkins to get injured for Games 6-7 so the Lakers could win) but I'll leave it where it is for now. How is 2-1 better success than 2-2? Particularly when Kobe had the better teammates during that time?

This is more of a topic of discussion when Kobe's name gets called, currently it isn't and this thread is getting derailed.

The recent Laker run vs. the Heat run is on par with each other.

2 wins each, 1 loss (not as lopsided as people would think as it took an epic game 5 stretch run by the Celtics that would lead to a 3-2 series lead than deficit. Also a key piece in Bynum was injured the entire series while Perkins was out mainly for game 7, and in his place Rasheed Wallace dropped many clutch buckets that had Perkins been in the game, likely would not have occurred. The tradeof in defense and offense is a wash, and even then Sheed was most definitely no slouch on defense. Perkins couldn't hold a candle to Sheed's range on offense though).

1 tight 7 game series win where he had the one bad game, game 7. Compare that to LeBron who had 5 poor games in 2013 and just the one great game 7, well you get the picture.

The 1 series loss in 2008 was moreso the Celtics being the better team than the Lakers were that year.

2 wins (1 of which took a miracle sequence of events) and 2 losses in the Finals. 1 epic beatdown and 1 loss to Dallas where they dropped the ball, LeBron especially. Generally underwhelming where you consider the Heat were only clearly the better team in 1 of the 4 series.

Anyway, I'll provide a tally count for the one poster who asked about it.

[Jaivl]

The full list has Amir Johnson over Shaq.... I think that says it all.

Using RAPM in any kind of serious analysis is a joke.

If you make ridiculous comparisons you will get ridiculous results. RAPM is really fine when you compare players with the same role.

[MacGill]

I don't have time for a huge write-up right now and will come back to edit this in but my vote will be for Hakeem.

I will edit later tonight and add some substance.
Good because this isn't going to count

[therealbig3]

Completely disregarding RAPM based on your limited understanding of it is an even bigger joke.

It's not the be all, end all, nobody said it was...but if you want something beyond simplified box score comparisons, RAPM is a good stat to determine non-box score value. I don't use any one +/- stat, but when they all tend to pretty much agree on the same thing, consistently, I tend to put a lot of weight into that (ie, Kobe's really not that good of a defender; KG is awesome).

[An Unbiased Fan]

RAPM and other plus minus or on/off variations are by definition objective. Imperfect but objective. Peoples' opinions are subjective. The thing is, I'm ok with subjective evidence here....give me a scouting report or an in depth article discussing what specifically Kobe does defensively that makes him elite. Show me a possession by possession breakdown of his games where he is dominant defensively. But don't just say "Kobe played elite defense, end of story, trust me on this. RAPM is wrong because there are ridiculous results every year. I don't care about similar results over time, thousands of on/off possessions are completely useless."

The interpretation of RAPM hasn't been objective for a while. If it stayed in the lineup data wheelhouse, then you would be right. But the past few years people have invested into the notion that it will eventually show individual impact.

You can look at NBA coaches, scouts, and analysts who all back up Kobe's defensive seasons. There is no great defensive stat out there. Even blocks/steals are misleading. What bothers me is that a misused lineup stat is being trumpeted over everything else. I don't have NBA scouting reports at my disposal, or videos with possession by possession breakdowans. Why did peer review work for guys like Russell, but not Kobe. NBA coaches vote on the All-Defensive teams, yet their opinions are apparently invalid. Go figure

[shutupandjam]

Not sure if someone has done something like this (I haven't been able to find anything), but I thought it would be interesting for facilitating discussion, especially when comparing players across eras.

Here are the minutes weighted average heights for each position every year since 1952. I used basketball-reference's position and height designations.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m4pX_3QvGIGcCB3ORnqGEtkh4HAJ5WXrbtDtDI73tkQ/edit?usp=sharing

[therealbig3]

If you're going to consider anecdotal evidence, I would trust Tex Winter and Phil Jackson, his actual coaches, more than people that watched Kobe from afar. Both of them criticized Kobe's defense many times.

[An Unbiased Fan]

If you're going to consider anecdotal evidence, I would trust Tex Winter and Phil Jackson, his actual coaches, more than people that watched Kobe from afar. Both of them criticized Kobe's defense many times.

I'm fine with that. Just make sure to do that with both the negatives and positives.

[Notanoob]

If you're going to consider anecdotal evidence, I would trust Tex Winter and Phil Jackson, his actual coaches, more than people that watched Kobe from afar. Both of them criticized Kobe's defense many times.

I'm fine with that. Just make sure to do that with both the negatives and positives.

If those guys are critical of his defense, and you're cool with their assessment, why are you trying to tell us that he's an elite defender? Or that "coaches and GMs" support that when we've got a pair that do not?

[Jaivl]

Not sure if someone has done something like this (I haven't been able to find anything), but I thought it would be interesting for facilitating discussion, especially when comparing players across eras.

Here are the minutes weighted average heights for each position every year since 1952. I used basketball-reference's position and height designations.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m4pX_3QvGIGcCB3ORnqGEtkh4HAJ5WXrbtDtDI73tkQ/edit?usp=sharing

Nice! Are you using "real" or listed heights?

[ardee]

Look at that list man. Do you honestly believe it?

Leave alone Kobe. Carter a better defender than Wade? Curry better than Durant?

The full list has Amir Johnson over Shaq.... I think that says it all.

Using RAPM in any kind of serious analysis is a joke.

Vince Carter has 126,000 possessions since 2001. Wade has 98,000. What % of those possessions have you watched? How can you objectively say one is the better defender than the other when you probably watched like maybe 1% of those possessions intensely.

Are you really bringing this to a 'I've watched more than you' argument?

Make a separate thread about Carter vs Wade on defense if you want. Carter is notorious for never giving effort on the defensive end, until recently when he's been serviceable. Meanwhile this whole board loves to annoint Wade as the best defensive guard since Jordan. I don't think he's thaaat good but he's CLEARLY better than Carter.

I genuinely can't believe I'm having this discussion.

Look if you want to believe RAPM's wonky results, then power to you. But be consistent, rank KG over LeBron and Shaq, because by the spreadsheet you provided, he's better than them.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[ardee]

The full list has Amir Johnson over Shaq.... I think that says it all.

Using RAPM in any kind of serious analysis is a joke.

If you make ridiculous comparisons you will get ridiculous results. RAPM is really fine when you compare players with the same role.

Why exactly must one do that? Explain that statement to me.

Are you saying it only makes sense to have RAPM rankings per position/playing style? Then why use it in an all time ranking if you can't compare KG to Kobe or Shaq or LeBron?

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

[shutupandjam]

Not sure if someone has done something like this (I haven't been able to find anything), but I thought it would be interesting for facilitating discussion, especially when comparing players across eras.

Here are the minutes weighted average heights for each position every year since 1952. I used basketball-reference's position and height designations.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m4pX_3QvGIGcCB3ORnqGEtkh4HAJ5WXrbtDtDI73tkQ/edit?usp=sharing

Nice! Are you using "real" or listed heights?

Listed heights from BBR. The players I have real heights for (i.e., everyone in dx's combine data) make up a very small sample of the overall population.

[An Unbiased Fan]

If you're going to consider anecdotal evidence, I would trust Tex Winter and Phil Jackson, his actual coaches, more than people that watched Kobe from afar. Both of them criticized Kobe's defense many times.

I'm fine with that. Just make sure to do that with both the negatives and positives.

If those guys are critical of his defense, and you're cool with their assessment, why are you trying to tell us that he's an elite defender? Or that "coaches and GMs" support that when we've got a pair that do not?

Tex was speaking about Kobe "playing zone" in 2006-7 with those Smush teams. Can't say I'm in agreement with Phil's assessment because his purpose was to sell books. But again, actual peer viewpoints are useful and hold more weight than lineup data, so I'm cool with people bringing it up.

I rated Kobe a 5-6 on defense earlier in the project. Kobe's defensive swings are no different from Lebron, or any volume scorer. LBJ isn't at the hyper level on D he was circa 09-12. I'm fine with people bringing up criticisms, like I said, just make sure to view the positives too. Kobe's defense from 00-03 was exceptional(around a 6 for me). From 04-09 is was still elite, but not as consistent for 48 minutes(around a 5 for me).

Actual discussions are good, what I have issue with is the notion that lineup data numbers quantify individual defense, because they don't. it makes this the Top 100 RAPM project, and people just find numbers that support certain players. Magic/Bird/Hakeem are really screwed because they have no answer for the data due to their era.

[colts18]

Are you really bringing this to a 'I've watched more than you' argument?

No. I'm making the exact opposite argument. My argument is that I've probably watched like 1% of Carter's possessions in the past 14 years so who am I to judge if he was a better defender than Wade or Kobe. I can easily judge offense, but its much harder for defense especially when you consider that people watch games focusing on the offense not individual defenders. That's why I use RAPM as a tool because it doesn't rely on any eye test. I'm not saying its perfect, but its a tool.

[penbeast0]

Not sure if someone has done something like this (I haven't been able to find anything), but I thought it would be interesting for facilitating discussion, especially when comparing players across eras.

Here are the minutes weighted average heights for each position every year since 1952. I used basketball-reference's position and height designations.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m4pX_3QvGIGcCB3ORnqGEtkh4HAJ5WXrbtDtDI73tkQ/edit?usp=sharing

Thank you. Did you account for the changeover from measuring height in sock feet to height in shoes (about 1 to 2 inches)? I have never been sure when exactly they changed over; I'm assuming at some point they quit using the college measurements taken in sock feet and started doing their own (taken in shoes) to try to make the NBA look more impressive compared to the college ranks and that it would be based on draft year or something but I'm just not sure.

[An Unbiased Fan]

Are you really bringing this to a 'I've watched more than you' argument?

No. I'm making the exact opposite argument. My argument is that I've probably watched like 1% of Carter's possessions in the past 14 years so who am I to judge if he was a better defender than Wade or Kobe. I can easily judge offense, but its much harder for defense especially when you consider that people watch games focusing on the offense not individual defenders. That's why I use RAPM as a tool because it doesn't rely on any eye test. I'm not saying its perfect, but its a tool.

I would agree that evaluating defense is harder. The question is why RAPM is the answer. Vlade Divac is rated higher than Ben Wallace, Bogut, and Dwight by it.

97-14 DRAPM:
Divac - 2.60
Big Ben - 2.39
Bogut - 2.35
Marc Gasol - 2.09
Dwight - 1.96

To me, its clear that Divac was just part of more defensive rotations due to the King's lack of size in their roster. Which illustrates why RAPM is fine for coaches to analyze their lineups, but not for individual impact. No two players have the same role, roster, team system, rotations. There is no mechanism to extract the individual from the group.

[shutupandjam]

Spoiler:

Not sure if someone has done something like this (I haven't been able to find anything), but I thought it would be interesting for facilitating discussion, especially when comparing players across eras.

Here are the minutes weighted average heights for each position every year since 1952. I used basketball-reference's position and height designations.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1m4pX_3QvGIGcCB3ORnqGEtkh4HAJ5WXrbtDtDI73tkQ/edit?usp=sharing

Thank you. Did you account for the changeover from measuring height in sock feet to height in shoes (about 1 to 2 inches)? I have never been sure when exactly they changed over; I'm assuming at some point they quit using the college measurements taken in sock feet and started doing their own (taken in shoes) to try to make the NBA look more impressive compared to the college ranks and that it would be based on draft year or something but I'm just not sure.

No because I don't know exactly how to pin down when that happened. On average (according to available combine data), shoes add 1.2 inches. So I guess for now just take that into account when comparing the old eras to the newer ones.

[colts18]

I would agree that evaluating defense is harder. The question is why RAPM is the answer. Vlade Divac is rated higher than Ben Wallace, Bogut, and Dwight by it.

97-14 DRAPM:
Divac - 2.60
Big Ben - 2.39
Bogut - 2.35
Marc Gasol - 2.09
Dwight - 1.96

To me, its clear that Divac was just part of more defensive rotations due to the King's lack of size in their roster. Which illustrates why RAPM is fine for coaches to analyze their lineups, but not for individual impact. No two players have the same role, roster, team system, rotations. There is no mechanism to extract the individual from the group.

I'm not sure what list you are looking at, but on the 2001-2014 RAPM Divac is behind Bogut, Gasol, and Wallace. Divac's Kings were 7th in D rating from 01-04


http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

[An Unbiased Fan]

I would agree that evaluating defense is harder. The question is why RAPM is the answer. Vlade Divac is rated higher than Ben Wallace, Bogut, and Dwight by it.

97-14 DRAPM:
Divac - 2.60
Big Ben - 2.39
Bogut - 2.35
Marc Gasol - 2.09
Dwight - 1.96

To me, its clear that Divac was just part of more defensive rotations due to the King's lack of size in their roster. Which illustrates why RAPM is fine for coaches to analyze their lineups, but not for individual impact. No two players have the same role, roster, team system, rotations. There is no mechanism to extract the individual from the group.

I'm not sure what list you are looking at, but on the 2001-2014 RAPM Divac is behind Bogut, Gasol, and Wallace. Divac's Kings were 7th in D rating from 01-04


http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/14y.html

https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats ... nsive-rapm