'17-'18 POY discussion

[Outside]

Olympic weightlifters are extremely mobile. Maybe that's why Dirk rates so good on offense

LOL, I am not in any way disparaging their athleticism or quickness executed skillfully with technique. They show amazing quickness and dexterity during some of those movements. But when holding the bar fully raised overhead, this person is not the epitome of mobility.



I love Dirk. He's about the most completely likable player I can think of in the league. He's so smart, the way he anticipates where he needs to be at both ends. He's a master at conserving energy -- he keeps moving, but at a walk much of the time. When he runs, it's a herky jerky trot that's almost painful to watch, but the dude hasn't missed a game. He's amazing. But mobile he's not.

[BattierDefense]

"hey lets find the advanced stat that james harden sucks in and use that to crown our mvp"

I mean harden only leads in these stats

League Leaders
3-Pt Field Goals
1. James Harden • HOU 176
3-Pt Field Goal Attempts
1. James Harden • HOU 455
Free Throws
1. James Harden • HOU 367
Points
1. James Harden • HOU 1355
Points Per Game
1. James Harden • HOU 31.5
Player Efficiency Rating
1. James Harden • HOU 30.4
Usage Pct
1. James Harden • HOU 35.7
Offensive Win Shares
1. James Harden • HOU 7.6
Win Shares
1. James Harden • HOU 9.6
Win Shares Per 48 Minutes
1. James Harden • HOU .296
Box Plus/Minus
1. James Harden • HOU 10.7

And yea Harden leads the NBA in total points and still top 3 in assists, top 10 in steals

But HEY lets use RAPM... a stat i have never never ever heard heard of, to try and discredit harden.

Harden was the best player in 2015 and he was the mvp in 2017, but this site is so far up dubs nation behind they cant see it

[mihail_petkov]

Harden was the best player in 2015 and he was the mvp in 2017, but this site is so far up dubs nation behind they cant see it

Sure, Harden is MVP so far. I have never seen someone saying something else.
Is he the best player? Arguably, Curry is playing really close to Harden right now but Harden has clear advantage.

He deserved the MVP in 2017 too but what what his argument for MVP or best player in 2015?

RS 2015:
Harden per 36: 26.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 6.8 apg, 1.9 spg, 3.9 tpg, 118 ORTG, 103 DRTG, 26.7 PER, 61% TS, .265 WS/48, 7.4 OBPM, 8.4 BPM, 7.8 VORP, +5.8 on, -3.0 off, +8.8 on/off, 8.50 RPM
Curry per 36: 26.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 8.5 apg, 2.2 spg, 3.4 tpg, 122 ORTG, 101 DRTG, 28.0 PER, 64% TS, .288 WS/48, 9.6 OBPM, 9.9 BPM, 7.9 VORP, +16.6 on, -1.3 off, +17.9 on/off, 9.34 RPM

Before the season ESPN had Rockets and Warriors as 7th and 8th see with same record: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/TTtjt3HpYtw/maxresdefault.jpg

Warriors overachieved by 18 games, Rockets by 7 games.

[PaulieWal]

"hey lets find the advanced stat that james harden sucks in and use that to crown our mvp"

I mean harden only leads in these stats

League Leaders
3-Pt Field Goals
1. James Harden • HOU 176
3-Pt Field Goal Attempts
1. James Harden • HOU 455
Free Throws
1. James Harden • HOU 367
Points
1. James Harden • HOU 1355
Points Per Game
1. James Harden • HOU 31.5
Player Efficiency Rating
1. James Harden • HOU 30.4
Usage Pct
1. James Harden • HOU 35.7
Offensive Win Shares
1. James Harden • HOU 7.6
Win Shares
1. James Harden • HOU 9.6
Win Shares Per 48 Minutes
1. James Harden • HOU .296
Box Plus/Minus
1. James Harden • HOU 10.7

And yea Harden leads the NBA in total points and still top 3 in assists, top 10 in steals

But HEY lets use RAPM... a stat i have never never ever heard heard of, to try and discredit harden.

Harden was the best player in 2015 and he was the mvp in 2017, but this site is so far up dubs nation behind they cant see it

You have been verbally warned to stop trolling. Baiting and trolling comments like these are simply not acceptable.

[Dr Spaceman]

As of the update yesterday Chris Paul leads the entire league in RPM. Harden just behind him.

Curry and Butler round out the top four and then Cousins.

Curry leads in ORPM by a mile and a half but his defensive number is significantly negative, actually pretty bad for someone of his caliber. Kerr prefers to pair him with Draymond most of the time, and Draymond has been totally dogging it this season so I wonder how that’s affecting the numbers.

Lebron and Davis are both trending way downwards and could fall out of the top 20.

Tyus Jones is 5th among point guards

[Dr Spaceman]

As of right now if I were to make my top 5:

1. Jimmy Butler - the Wolves have been the story of the season and there’s nothing to indicate they’d be any more than a bad team without him. Wiggins wanders around the floor like an alien who once read a brochure about how basketball works, Karl Towns either has his motor running WAY too hot or WAY too cold, Jeff Teague looks confusedly at connect four like a chessboard, and yet the Wolves are among the class of the West.

Butler’s first step is the best in the entire league, and he’s gotten so good at leveraging off balance defenders into playmaking lanes. He’s the best shot maker currently other than Harden and Curry, he’s got the point forward role down to a science, and Minnesota’s defense defense completely falls apart when he’s not directing trafffic and setting a tone. I think he’s currently the most versatile player in the entire league, when he’s out there you can palpably see the effect even on mundane things like defensive rebounding. The dude is just good.

2. James Harden - I’ve been critical of his style of play this year, but I can’t deny it’s been effective. He’s clearly been more important than Paul this year, even if I consider All the better player at this point, and his style is really good at ensuring the team stays afloat no matter what pieces surround him. The problem is, though, that it truly doesn’t matter what pieces are around him, and in a bad way. The Rockets have more offensive talent than anyone outside the Warriors, and yet their offense is the most rigid and predictable in the entire league. I don’t want to put this all on Harden but he’s not helping maters.

3. Greek Freak -Wonderful breakout year he’s been having. An absolute joy to watch. In a chaotic, mismanaged, injury-riddled season for his team, he’s been the constant. I think he has big holes in his game, and as a player overall I don’t think he’s been quite in this tier, but a lot of guys have missed time or moped around and Giannis as been there killing it on both ends every night for his team. With Jabari back they may be ready to make a real push.

4. Stephen Curry- He’s missed a lot of time, but I just can’t deny that he’s in his own class as an offensive player. I mean the team was barely above water on offense without him, and their ORTG with him on the floor is 123. I think this is the best he’s ever been in his career and as talented as Durant is there is a clear hierarchy in Golden State. The team just doesn’t respond to him the way they do Curry.

5. Russell Westbrook - it feels weird because he’s had an extremely down year, but the other guy I’d consider here is Chris Paul and Westbrook has played in like twice as many games. He’s the one here I feel most confident will drop out of the top 5, but it’s possible I’m just overreacting to OKC’s slow start on offense. RPM shows the team still lives and dies by his offense, and to be honest I’ve never been a believer in Paul George. OKC is a good team- much better than last year, and Russell has shown a bit of growth in his approach this year. I think the guys really respond to his energy and motor, even if his defense is not where I’d like and his tunnel vision more severe than anyone else here.

Rounding out the top ten, in some as yet undetermined order: Paul, Davis, Embiid, Kyrie, Horford.

I don’t know what to do about LeBron. I can’t help but feel he’s toxic right now and Cleveland has been such a disappointment I can’t honestly put him in the top ten.
5.

EDIT: Towns is inching closer and closer to top 10 consideration for me. He’s been outstanding on offense.

[CBA]

^ Just an FYI, but OKC isn't much better than last year despite the apparent talent upgrade. They have a lower winning percentage and their SRS isn't a great deal higher than it was last year.

It's actually bizarre to see Westbrook in people's top 5 for the year. Even recency bias doesn't account for it considering they've been playing poorly.

Anyways, right now I have Harden first then Curry, Butler, Giannis, Lebron, Durant and Paul shuffling around below.

[dhsilv2]

"hey lets find the advanced stat that james harden sucks in and use that to crown our mvp"

I mean harden only leads in these stats

League Leaders
3-Pt Field Goals
1. James Harden • HOU 176
3-Pt Field Goal Attempts
1. James Harden • HOU 455
Free Throws
1. James Harden • HOU 367
Points
1. James Harden • HOU 1355
Points Per Game
1. James Harden • HOU 31.5
Player Efficiency Rating
1. James Harden • HOU 30.4
Usage Pct
1. James Harden • HOU 35.7
Offensive Win Shares
1. James Harden • HOU 7.6
Win Shares
1. James Harden • HOU 9.6
Win Shares Per 48 Minutes
1. James Harden • HOU .296
Box Plus/Minus
1. James Harden • HOU 10.7

And yea Harden leads the NBA in total points and still top 3 in assists, top 10 in steals

But HEY lets use RAPM... a stat i have never never ever heard heard of, to try and discredit harden.

Harden was the best player in 2015 and he was the mvp in 2017, but this site is so far up dubs nation behind they cant see it

If you've not heard of RAPM, that's on you. It's been one of the most used and discussed stats over the past 5+ years.

[E-Balla]

As of the update yesterday Chris Paul leads the entire league in RPM. Harden just behind him.

Curry and Butler round out the top four and then Cousins.

Curry leads in ORPM by a mile and a half but his defensive number is significantly negative, actually pretty bad for someone of his caliber. Kerr prefers to pair him with Draymond most of the time, and Draymond has been totally dogging it this season so I wonder how that’s affecting the numbers.

Lebron and Davis are both trending way downwards and could fall out of the top 20.

Tyus Jones is 5th among point guards

If RAPM has anything to show Draymond's 19th in NPI DRAPM, Klay is 10th, KD is 427th, and Curry is 308th so there's a clear separation between Curry/KD and Klay/Dray. KD and Curry are also 1st and 3rd in ORAPM (Towns is 2nd) so idk it seems maybe they're being over estimated offensively and underestimated defensively.

Lebron dropping in RPM makes sense with his RAPM being so terrible but Davis dropping is surprising since his RAPM is about the same. Has to be the boxscore changing things or something similar.

[E-Balla]

Also another told you so from me about Jimmy. Dude is a monster.

[bondom34]

I'm more toward Butler at 1st myself. After that I'm less clear, but I think Curry, Harden, Giannis, Westbrook feels about right. Not really sure where I am after the top 3 totally.

Also, OKC's SRS is up over 2 points which is a fair margin so not sure even there you'd say they weren't improved. Prior to Roberson going down they were 8-0 and leading the league in net rating over a stretch I believe, he's been good after a pretty poor start. Not recency bias at all.

I don't know what to do with Paul right now. He's definitely up there but who do I credit in Houston more recently is the question.

[CBA]

I'm more toward Butler at 1st myself. After that I'm less clear, but I think Curry, Harden, Giannis, Westbrook feels about right. Not really sure where I am after the top 3 totally.

Also, OKC's SRS is up over 2 points which is a fair margin so not sure even there you'd say they weren't improved. Prior to Roberson going down they were 8-0 and leading the league in net rating over a stretch I believe, he's been good after a pretty poor start. Not recency bias at all.

I don't know what to do with Paul right now. He's definitely up there but who do I credit in Houston more recently is the question.

+1 to +3 isn't much better... A lower win % isn't much better... It's closer to noise.

And playing well after a poor start is the definition recency bias. Taking a view of the full season with context, I don't see Westbrook as a top 5 player.

[eminence]

I'm more toward Butler at 1st myself. After that I'm less clear, but I think Curry, Harden, Giannis, Westbrook feels about right. Not really sure where I am after the top 3 totally.

Also, OKC's SRS is up over 2 points which is a fair margin so not sure even there you'd say they weren't improved. Prior to Roberson going down they were 8-0 and leading the league in net rating over a stretch I believe, he's been good after a pretty poor start. Not recency bias at all.

I don't know what to do with Paul right now. He's definitely up there but who do I credit in Houston more recently is the question.

Those 6 (not Roberson) are the ones I'd tag as serious contenders right now. Order would probably be:
1. Curry
2. Harden
3. Butler
4. Giannis
5. Westbrook
6. CP3

An important asterisk for LeBron/KD/Draymond that they've still been alright and have basically nothing to prove in the regular season so I'll be weighting their playoffs far heavier than for most other players.

[dhsilv2]

As of the update yesterday Chris Paul leads the entire league in RPM. Harden just behind him.

Curry and Butler round out the top four and then Cousins.

Curry leads in ORPM by a mile and a half but his defensive number is significantly negative, actually pretty bad for someone of his caliber. Kerr prefers to pair him with Draymond most of the time, and Draymond has been totally dogging it this season so I wonder how that’s affecting the numbers.

Lebron and Davis are both trending way downwards and could fall out of the top 20.

Tyus Jones is 5th among point guards

Curry and harden is roughly equal in ORPM.

[Dr Spaceman]

As of the update yesterday Chris Paul leads the entire league in RPM. Harden just behind him.

Curry and Butler round out the top four and then Cousins.

Curry leads in ORPM by a mile and a half but his defensive number is significantly negative, actually pretty bad for someone of his caliber. Kerr prefers to pair him with Draymond most of the time, and Draymond has been totally dogging it this season so I wonder how that’s affecting the numbers.

Lebron and Davis are both trending way downwards and could fall out of the top 20.

Tyus Jones is 5th among point guards

Curry and harden is roughly equal in ORPM.

They are now. Apparently there was another update a few hours ago. Curry dropped substantially

[dhsilv2]

As of the update yesterday Chris Paul leads the entire league in RPM. Harden just behind him.

Curry and Butler round out the top four and then Cousins.

Curry leads in ORPM by a mile and a half but his defensive number is significantly negative, actually pretty bad for someone of his caliber. Kerr prefers to pair him with Draymond most of the time, and Draymond has been totally dogging it this season so I wonder how that’s affecting the numbers.

Lebron and Davis are both trending way downwards and could fall out of the top 20.

Tyus Jones is 5th among point guards

Curry and harden is roughly equal in ORPM.

They are now. Apparently there was another update a few hours ago. Curry dropped substantially

Interesting, did Curry's DRPM come up? Otherwise he'd have been in first by a huge margin assuming the country mile was accurate over Harden.

[Dr Spaceman]

^ Just an FYI, but OKC isn't much better than last year despite the apparent talent upgrade. They have a lower winning percentage and their SRS isn't a great deal higher than it was last year.

It's actually bizarre to see Westbrook in people's top 5 for the year. Even recency bias doesn't account for it considering they've been playing poorly.

Anyways, right now I have Harden first then Curry, Butler, Giannis, Lebron, Durant and Paul shuffling around below.

They certainly are better this year. Their point differential has gone from a .500 team to a 50 win one.

And I’m not sold on Russ in the top 5 either, but he’s played 20 more games than Paul this year and I’m not going to pretend that doesn’t matter.

[Dr Spaceman]

Curry and harden is roughly equal in ORPM.

They are now. Apparently there was another update a few hours ago. Curry dropped substantially

Interesting, did Curry's DRPM come up? Otherwise he'd have been in first by a huge margin assuming the country mile was accurate over Harden.

From what I remember his D was at -0.97 and his O was well above 7 when I looked this morning. So the net hasn’t changed much but the splits have.

[Dr Spaceman]

An important asterisk for LeBron/KD/Draymond that they've still been alright and have basically nothing to prove in the regular season so I'll be weighting their playoffs far heavier than for most other players.

Cant disagree more strongly. This is well beyond coasting, LeBron is at the point where his play is actively huritng his team (-9 net rating this month). He might honestly get more credit from me if he had just sat out January. Coasting is coasting but the Cavs look like they won’t finish above .500 at the current pace.

[E-Balla]

I'm more toward Butler at 1st myself. After that I'm less clear, but I think Curry, Harden, Giannis, Westbrook feels about right. Not really sure where I am after the top 3 totally.

Also, OKC's SRS is up over 2 points which is a fair margin so not sure even there you'd say they weren't improved. Prior to Roberson going down they were 8-0 and leading the league in net rating over a stretch I believe, he's been good after a pretty poor start. Not recency bias at all.

I don't know what to do with Paul right now. He's definitely up there but who do I credit in Houston more recently is the question.

Those 6 (not Roberson) are the ones I'd tag as serious contenders right now. Order would probably be:
1. Curry
2. Harden
3. Butler
4. Giannis
5. Westbrook
6. CP3

An important asterisk for LeBron/KD/Draymond that they've still been alright and have basically nothing to prove in the regular season so I'll be weighting their playoffs far heavier than for most other players.

CP3 over Kemba? CP3 has been great don't get me wrong but he has a deep team full of great players (Harden, Capela, EG) and he's only played 33 games out of 50+.