2020-21 RealGM All-Season POY & Other Awards Discussion Thread

[Doctor MJ]

The Bucks weren't that close to winning the championship either - the Sixers sure, the Bucks were decisively beaten, and likely would have been beaten by the Sixers as well. Giannis did not play well in that series either.

That's one way of looking at it, here's another:

If the Bucks don't play arguably the most innovative mind (Nick Nurse) in the basketball world, and he doesn't make a key late adjustment based on his unique personnel (more than one DPOY in front court), the Bucks probably win that title and it's no given they get figured out the next year either.

Not saying to ignore what actually happened or the hard truths about Giannis' limitations, but things could have easily gone very differently.

[Doctor MJ]

So, it's one game, and all caveats about "we'll see what happens next", but tell me how you feel about the following assertion:

The guy (Jrue) who can shut down Dame, can't stop Trae.

I'll say for myself, oversimplifications aside, I'm particularly interested in stuff that totally blows up the thesis entirely.

[Outside]

So, it's one game, and all caveats about "we'll see what happens next", but tell me how you feel about the following assertion:

The guy (Jrue) who can shut down Dame, can't stop Trae.

I'll say for myself, oversimplifications aside, I'm particularly interested in stuff that totally blows up the thesis entirely.

Jrue is a Dame stopper? He's a really good defender, but as has been proven throughout history, nobody stops great offensive players.

I didn't watch the game that closely, but it seemed like the Bucks were doing a lousy job of stopping Trae from going wherever he wanted. He's obviously the engine that makes the Hawks go, so you have to pay more attention to him with the ball than the off-ball threats.

What I saw were a LOT of missed three-point shots. In the RS, the Hawks were 17th in the league in three-pointers made and 12th in three-point percentage, and the Bucks were 5th in both categories. In the playoffs, the Hawks are 10th in three-pointers made and 11th in 3P% (33.9%), and the Bucks are an abysmal 12th and 14th (30.4%, yikes). In game 1, the Hawks shot 25.0% on threes, and the Bucks shot 22.2%. Both teams were awful.

Given that the Hawks are that bad at threes, why are the Bucks covering those guys and allowing Trae uncontested floaters against single coverage? Double him in the paint. Make him give it up. He's an excellent passer, so he'll find guys, but until the Hawks can prove they can shoot the three, quit allowing Trae to operate with impunity inside.

Then, of course, Trae is a little guy, and eventually little guys have to pay a penalty for being little. Get physical with him. Yes, I know about his tricks for drawing fouls, but you have to get physical with him the right way, when he doesn't have the ball and when he's on defense. Put him in screening actions, again and again.

The Bucks have their own issues to address, like their awful three-point shooting, but they should be capable of exploiting Atlanta's weaknesses better than they did in game 1.

[Colbinii]

I'm thinking Capella deserves a spot over Simmons.

He has been a better defender all season long.

Am I nuts for being more impressed with Capella than any other defender in the playoffs?

No, especially when factoring in his rebounding.

[Texas Chuck]

Hard to blame Jrue when they simply run a Capela PNR and Brook Lopez is 12-15 feet away from the action. What is Jrue supposed to do there?

[falcolombardi]

i hope bucks run smallball again in game 2

sorry to brook but he really looked like a liability out there, although i think coach bud will repeat the same strategy in game 2

[Rich Michmond]

So, it's one game, and all caveats about "we'll see what happens next", but tell me how you feel about the following assertion:

The guy (Jrue) who can shut down Dame, can't stop Trae.

I'll say for myself, oversimplifications aside, I'm particularly interested in stuff that totally blows up the thesis entirely.

Jrue is a Dame stopper? He's a really good defender, but as has been proven throughout history, nobody stops great offensive players.

Lillard had a pretty terrible series against the Pelicans in 2018, in which he was guarded mainly by Holiday (with some dose of Rondo).

[falcolombardi]

so should trae make poy top 5? any chance you Guys give him a spot ?

[Doctor MJ]

So, it's one game, and all caveats about "we'll see what happens next", but tell me how you feel about the following assertion:

The guy (Jrue) who can shut down Dame, can't stop Trae.

I'll say for myself, oversimplifications aside, I'm particularly interested in stuff that totally blows up the thesis entirely.

Jrue is a Dame stopper? He's a really good defender, but as has been proven throughout history, nobody stops great offensive players.

Lillard had a pretty terrible series against the Pelicans in 2018, in which he was guarded mainly by Holiday (with some dose of Rondo).

Right, I'm expecting folks to be thinking about the Portland-NO series. Why was Dame apparently so shut down by Jrue then, and what's different about the situation with Trae?

[parsnips33]

Jrue is a Dame stopper? He's a really good defender, but as has been proven throughout history, nobody stops great offensive players.

Lillard had a pretty terrible series against the Pelicans in 2018, in which he was guarded mainly by Holiday (with some dose of Rondo).

Right, I'm expecting folks to be thinking about the Portland-NO series. Why was Dame apparently so shut down by Jrue then, and what's different about the situation with Trae?

As I recall, AD was a big part of that equation. Of course Jrue has Giannis now, but it's about more than just the individual matchup

[bondom34]

Different teams, different teammates, different schemes, different coaches.

From all I can tell the Bucks strategy was "let Trae get his and try to limit the others". They actually did that fairly well, but got outrebounded and the 2nd chance points generated by Collins/Capela hurt. Also I think he got going a bit in the 2nd when Teague was guarding him which was oddly reminiscent of Doc Rivers putting Danny Green on him the last series.

[Doctor MJ]

so should trae make poy top 5? any chance you Guys give him a spot ?

Absolutely. It's within the realm of possibility that Trae leads his team to a title looking like the best player on the court in the last two rounds, which will include a series with Giannis. If that's the case, I think it would be flat out weird not to see Trae as a strong Top 5 POY prospect. He shouldn't be eliminated form contention on anyone's ballots yet.

I will say I'm not sure if he'll end up in my Top 10 or not though - though that's looking likely to me after the first game in Milwaukee. If Trae looked like a pretender in this series, say because of Jrue's tenacious D, he wouldn't have made it.

I will say this though:

I had Embiid at #4 in the RS, and I'm reluctant to say Trae was even the MVP of the last series above Embiid. While I try not to be rigid in how I evaluate these guys, if Embiid were to stay in place, that would mean making it tough for Trae to move above #5.

[falcolombardi]

Jrue is a Dame stopper? He's a really good defender, but as has been proven throughout history, nobody stops great offensive players.

Lillard had a pretty terrible series against the Pelicans in 2018, in which he was guarded mainly by Holiday (with some dose of Rondo).

Right, I'm expecting folks to be thinking about the Portland-NO series. Why was Dame apparently so shut down by Jrue then, and what's different about the situation with Trae?

lot of peopke blame lillard/blazers not dealing well with blitzing doubles and lillard/rest lf the blazers failing to make them pay

also part of it may be all the López minutes as opposed to davis heavy minutes at the 5

i am saying this of loose memory, i honestly dont remember much of that blazers/pels series

[Outside]

The thing is, Lillard having an underwhelming performance in the PS is more the norm than the exception. That particular series does stand out as a bad one, but I'm not sure what conclusions we can draw from that. Lillard's shooting in the PS overall has been bad.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html#all_playoffs-series

[Dupp]

Jokic
Giannis
Luka


Top two seem like a no brainer with no real threat. Trae can enter the picture but that’s it.

[BobbyPortisFan]

I'm thinking Capella deserves a spot over Simmons.

He has been a better defender all season long.

Am I nuts for being more impressed with Capella than any other defender in the playoffs?

Uh...Giannis?

Even in the game 1 loss giannis wsa phenomenal defnesively and the bucks defense ucompletely collapsed when he went off(probably because of bud's isnistince on playing drop vs elite shooters.) There was literally a stretch of three straight possessiosn where giannis completely stonewalled TRAE YOUNG on the perimiter. In the first of those possessions trae was able to pass off for an assist because brook wasn't at the rim for some reason, but then the next two possessions trae was forced to take terrible shots. Giannis's defense aloowed the bucks to take control despite wasting possession after possession on offense only for all of them to forget how to rebound -_-.

But yeah, i've said this before, but I think gobert flaking a bit, makes giannis the clear cut #1 defenisvely this postseason. He's varied from good to great outside of single game facing a variety of good personell on a defense that's been pretty successful even as brook has been basically unplayable half these playoffs. And we've even seen him do work on trae young of all people which suggests he might be capable of the switchability stuff we saw from ad/kg in the right context.

I think its worth noting that despite giannis's underwhelming box numbers in the first round, the bucks blew apart a 45 win team by a much bigger margin than any of the first round victors DESPITE getting outshot. I think that's got a lot to do with giannis's defense. And for what its worth, when giannis was coasting defensively in the rs, the bucks defense looked pretty middling, so i'm not sure the supporting personell are as good as people say it is on that end.

[bondom34]

The thing is, Lillard having an underwhelming performance in the PS is more the norm than the exception. That particular series does stand out as a bad one, but I'm not sure what conclusions we can draw from that. Lillard's shooting in the PS overall has been bad.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html#all_playoffs-series

So....I'd been thinking about this post and meaning to reply for a few days. And it sort of spins into my general reluctance to really go all in toward being on a champion/finalist/however the line is drawn to be considered the best, or even overuse of playoff data in particular. A few thoughts but I don't really know how to organize it, and it breaks off from the season thread where I'm seeing discussion on Durant.

So to start we're relying on tiny samples. In general we know stats for a season start to normalize around maybe 20 games in against a variety of opponents (at least at a team level). Well the playoffs is at most 7 games all against 1 opponent. And depending on who that is greatly effects how that sample plays out before getting to natural variance (ie a guy like Enes Kanter is a player who can defend Jonas Valanciunas pretty well, he's big and strong and Val is a big and strong center, a guy like Gobert is worse equipped, but anyone takes Gobert as a total player every time). Now as for variance, we're looking at shooting and hot/cold nights in these stretches too. Just a year ago the Heat rode along pretty well w/ Herro shooting 42% on 3s vs the Bucks. Well this year that was 32% and it didn't go so well. Some of that was defensive adjustments in terms of series outcome, but in a close series all this adds up and skews things.

Second I think a lot of this goes toward some cognitive biases (credit ElGee for the ideas of winning bias and lone star, but also a bias toward moments that stick in our head). Naturally folks tend to credit the best player on a team for wins/losses even if subconsciously. They also tend to ignore/lessen that of smaller contributors or co-stars and remember particularly notable moments. For Lillard, it was the 2 buzzer beaters, for Durant in this instance it was game 5 vs the Bucks. We've had it in the inverse direction as well (Paul George hitting the side of the backboard comes to mind, CP3 in the past). What they don't remember as much is whatever their bias leans against. They don't remember that Lillard in quite a few series hasn't been great, and even in 2019 after that first round fell off pretty hard I believe. They don't remember Durant's worse performances or PG overall being a pretty solid performer or CP3's big shot against the Spurs.

Now to top all this off, we're looking at these things in terms of winning a series, which comes down at times to winning just 1 of 7 possible games and in any single 1 of those a random player could pop off. George Hill was an absolute sniper in 2020, if I recall shot near or at 50/40/90. Well this playoffs he managed to be one of the first off the bench for the Sixers and scored about 2 ppg at 35% TS. If that flips, we're still talking about the Sixers in the ECF. In 2014 I still remember the Thunder making the WCF and people give the what if of Serge Ibaka's injury. Well if we want to flip that what if Reggie Jackson doesn't go off for 32 points in a round 1 win where Durant/Westbrook combine for 11/45 shooting in a game that ultimately made it a 2-2 series they won in 7? It all too often comes down to what things entirely out of their control do.

All this to say in a few words, we're looking oftentimes at small samples, and often there only some things stick in our minds. And both of these factors make things weird and why I struggle attributing too much on winning mattering to a terribly extreme extent toward individual accolades (now saying a player helped his team in terms of driving a poor cast is something I buy, but just single game/series results in terms of wins and losses can be weird).

[eminence]

Going to be the toughest season ever to vote on at this rate, that's for sure.

[Doctor MJ]

Going to be the toughest season ever to vote on at this rate, that's for sure.

Yes, this will be the toughest we've ever done "live" definitely. Reminds me of some of the '70s seasons.

I've been chewing on all of this a good deal and I think that in the end I'm just going to have to see what feels right after the finals.

[Doctor MJ]

So, I'm finding myself thinking that I don't know if it makes sense to change my Top 5 at all based on the playoffs, as bizarre as that sounds, given that everybody in my Top 5 seems likely to end up with playoff-based arguments against them. This may not end up being the case, but it's making me realize that changes to my vote may well end up just being based on how my perspective on the player as a whole changed from the RS to now.

To go through my RS Top 5:

1. Jokic - well, pretty solid, capable of being surpassed in theory, but nothing awful here

2. Gobert - pretty much everyone said this was too high in the regular season, but to be honest I still feel like based on the RS, he was among the most valuable players in the league. I was saying all along that if he seemed exposed in the playoffs, as he might, he could tumble far, and he had his exposure moment, but how much does it make sense to drop a guy who led a team to the WCSF in comparison to those who got no further or played in the East?

Of course, much is implied by the word "drop". If the question is who demonstrated the most impressive play as it relates to helping a team win a championship, in the sense of who you'd draft for just this year, there was never any reason for me to have Gobert this high in the first place, but am I just supposed to treat the RS like it doesn't matter at all in a year where the playoffs are in shambles?

3. Curry - he was astonishing this year. He was drastically more impressive from a volume*efficiency perspective as a scorer than anyone else even before you remember that defenses keyed in on him to an absurd degree because of the Warriors' lack of other scoring options. But aside from the fact he wasn't in god mode all season, there is a sense that the season was incomplete that I'm trying to decide if I should dwell on or dismiss.

4. Embiid - this is the spot where Embiid ended up on my list balancing his dominance with his missed time and it's funny because it doesn't feel right to elevate him or demote him based on the playoffs. On one level, his playoff dominance was awe inspiring. On another level, the only reason he was this high on the list was based on the notion that if his team was #1 how could you knock him so much for missed time? Now that his team lost to a 5 seed, doesn't his season deflate a bit?

5. Giannis - the obvious guy to grab the #1 spot from Jokic...who just got hurt. Sigh. We'll see where he ends up, but I have to say that my takeaway from the Nets series wasn't "Giannis broke through" but "Wow, Bucks' top gear just won't ever be enough against healthy top tier talent".

Players worth mentioning beyond these 5:

Kawhi was the next guy on my list, and like Giannis, seemed to have a track on rising all the way up to the top, but then he got hurt. We'll see how the playoffs end for him and the Clippers. Incidentally PG has a serious case for being the MVP of the Clippers this season at this point to my mind, which obviously hurts Kawhi's case, and I don't think PG will make a serious run himself at my Top 5.

Dame & Luka - the next guys on the outside looking in after the RS. Both were impressive in the playoffs, but really hard to justify "moving them up" based on playing and losing. If either of them were to make my Top 5, it would amount to me completely re-thinking my list rather than an actual climb.

CP3 - once the next guy on my list and I'd say he remains a guy who has basically clinched an HM but hard to imagine him in the Top 5.

Trae & Booker - the other stars still alive. Unlikely at this point I could actually justify either in my Top 5, but HM is a distinct possibility. (Then again, who knows what a world looks like where the Hawks are NBA champs.)

Incidentally also - I am going to have a pull to include KD as one of my "next 5" in the HM, but it's no given he'll make it.