PC Board OT Thread Take 4 [No Politics]

[Special_Puppy]

Allen's likely going to end up having outplayed Mahomes for back-to-back regular seasons. Was arguably overall the best QB in the league last season. Fan opinion probably isn't gonna move past Mahomes without Allen winning a Bowl or two, but the argument is there. Allen's truly been incredible, really looks like he's taken a leap the past two seasons.

He didn't outplay Mahomes last regular season to me when he threw 18 interceptions or the ones previous since 2020, though this year seems like his moment to win MVP. Regular season is also not the best indicator, such as how Jackson outplayed Mahomes in regular season last year but he has flaws that show up in playoffs imo. I don't trust Allen to make decisions in playoffs as much as Mahomes.

Allen was pretty easily better than Mahomes in the regular season last year. Allen was better than Mahomes in EPA/Play, adjusted EPA/Play, and PFF Grade. Allen was better than Mahomes in all those stats when you take into account the playoffs too. In 2022, Mahomes's comfortably lead the league in raw EPA/Play, but Allen was ~equal to Mahomes in PFF grades and some variants of adjusted EPA/Play. Arguments for Mahomes's basically have to either lean on raw career EPA/Play, certain variants of adjusted EPA/Play, or just giving like 7x weights to the playoffs.

2022: Adjusted EPA/Play and PFF leaderboard

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2023: Adjusted EPA/Play and PFF leaderboard

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[Dr Positivity]

Allen's likely going to end up having outplayed Mahomes for back-to-back regular seasons. Was arguably overall the best QB in the league last season. Fan opinion probably isn't gonna move past Mahomes without Allen winning a Bowl or two, but the argument is there. Allen's truly been incredible, really looks like he's taken a leap the past two seasons.

He didn't outplay Mahomes last regular season to me when he threw 18 interceptions or the ones previous since 2020, though this year seems like his moment to win MVP. Regular season is also not the best indicator, such as how Jackson outplayed Mahomes in regular season last year but he has flaws that show up in playoffs imo. I don't trust Allen to make decisions in playoffs as much as Mahomes.

Allen was pretty easily better than Mahomes in the regular season last year. Allen was better than Mahomes in EPA/Play, adjusted EPA/Play, and PFF Grade. Allen was better than Mahomes in all those stats when you take into account the playoffs too. In 2022, Mahomes's comfortably lead the league in raw EPA/Play, but Allen was ~equal to Mahomes in PFF grades and some variants of adjusted EPA/Play. Arguments for Mahomes's basically have to either lean on raw career EPA/Play, certain variants of adjusted EPA/Play, or just giving like 7x weights to the playoffs.

I don't know if stats can capture everything. Weren't Mahomes receivers raw and dropping everything last year in regular season? (and even Kelce probably can be called in cruise mode in regular seasons now) The Bills passing offense last year wasn't that amazing and they were relying a lot on Cook by the end of the season.

[Special_Puppy]

He didn't outplay Mahomes last regular season to me when he threw 18 interceptions or the ones previous since 2020, though this year seems like his moment to win MVP. Regular season is also not the best indicator, such as how Jackson outplayed Mahomes in regular season last year but he has flaws that show up in playoffs imo. I don't trust Allen to make decisions in playoffs as much as Mahomes.

Allen was pretty easily better than Mahomes in the regular season last year. Allen was better than Mahomes in EPA/Play, adjusted EPA/Play, and PFF Grade. Allen was better than Mahomes in all those stats when you take into account the playoffs too. In 2022, Mahomes's comfortably lead the league in raw EPA/Play, but Allen was ~equal to Mahomes in PFF grades and some variants of adjusted EPA/Play. Arguments for Mahomes's basically have to either lean on raw career EPA/Play, certain variants of adjusted EPA/Play, or just giving like 7x weights to the playoffs.

I don't know if stats can capture everything. Weren't Mahomes receivers raw and dropping everything last year in regular season? (and even Kelce probably can be called in cruise mode in regular seasons now) The Bills passing offense last year wasn't that amazing and they were relying a lot on Cook by the end of the season.

The version of EPA/Play linked adjusts for drops among other things. PFF Grades are also just a straight up formalized eye test. Bill's dropback EPA/Play last year (including the playoffs) was 0.159 last year compared to the Chiefs's 0.140.

[AEnigma]

I think the similarly high finishes for Purdy, Tua, and Dak strongly indicate the extent to which those metrics fail at separating quarterback play from their scheme, support, and overall environment. Which is not to equate the Bills with the 49ers/Cowboys/Dolphins on that front, but unless you believe those metrics would maintain if you started rotating quarterbacks across the league, the seasonal value of those metrics is pretty muted. Allen is a general consensus top two to three quarterback without them, and he will not be the consensus best until he looks like a more dominant postseason quarterback than Mahomes.

[OhayoKD]

I think the similarly high finishes for Purdy, Tua, and Dak strongly indicate the extent to which those metrics fail at separating quarterback play from their scheme, support, and overall environment. Which is not to equate the Bills with the 49ers/Cowboys/Dolphins on that front, but unless you believe those metrics would maintain if you started rotating quarterbacks across the league, the seasonal value of those metrics is pretty muted. Allen is a general consensus top two to three quarterback without them, and he will not be the consensus best until he looks like a more dominant postseason quarterback than Mahomes.

He can outplay mahomes from now to eternity but it won't matter if he doesn't win a title as far as consensus is concerned.

[AEnigma]

It will matter, just not for the purposes of peak or career assessment.

[jalengreen]

Allen's likely going to end up having outplayed Mahomes for back-to-back regular seasons. Was arguably overall the best QB in the league last season. Fan opinion probably isn't gonna move past Mahomes without Allen winning a Bowl or two, but the argument is there. Allen's truly been incredible, really looks like he's taken a leap the past two seasons.

He didn't outplay Mahomes last regular season to me when he threw 18 interceptions or the ones previous since 2020, though this year seems like his moment to win MVP. Regular season is also not the best indicator, such as how Jackson outplayed Mahomes in regular season last year but he has flaws that show up in playoffs imo. I don't trust Allen to make decisions in playoffs as much as Mahomes.

So, I'll say that Mahomes absolutely had to endure a truly poor offensive supporting cast in the regular season. I don't like relying on EPA too much because, yeah, it's basically a team offense metric. Does not matter what EPA/p Purdy puts up, I don't think many people would seriously argue that he's ever been better at the sport than Mahomes.

But one thing that I do think is a valuable takeaway from it is that... you're *probably* overstating the value (loss) of those Allen turnovers.

Mahomes contributed -74.0 EPA from his 17 turnovers in 2023. Allen contributed -64.9 EPA from his 22 turnovers in 2023. Partly because Allen's average interception traveled 26.4 yards in the air compared to 17.2 for Mahomes, partly because Mahomes had two pick sixes compared to Allen's zero.

Obviously this still doesn't tell you everything - one of those Mahomes pick sixes was the fault of his receiver (Brian Branch W1. the other was Jack Jones W16, pretty bad one in a loss) but it ends up being a big hit to his EPA. Point is that just looking at interceptions is just as flawed because interceptions are not created equally - an arm punt is far less hurtful to a team than most other picks, and field position matters a lot for assessing the value lost of interceptions/fumbles.

As for Allen making decisions in the playoffs, well, his career postseason INT% of 1.1% is among the lowest ever. 4 picks thrown in 378 playoff pass attempts. Pat's is great too at 1.2%, just one pick across the last two SB runs, and I don't actually disagree with your claim that you don't trust him as much as Pat, but just wanted to make clear that despite his regular season critiques, he takes care of the football in the postseason.

Regardless, to me it's not really in doubt that Allen was better last regular season. Honestly, he was my MVP. And then Mahomes went into his house and outplayed him when it mattered most (and similarly outplayed the other MVP candidates in the weeks to follow). So regardless of how I feel about his 2023 regular season compared to Allen and Lamar, I'd certainly still have Mahomes #1. But if he has another below expectation regular season and *isn't* able to mask that in the playoffs (remember, the Chiefs failing to win the Super Bowl is the most likely outcome at this point, and the AFC is stacked with elite quarterbacks), many people will be very quick to claim that his reign as the consensus best is over.

[jalengreen]

I’d also add that fluctuation in who’s considered the BITW QB is more common (than for example nba players), partly due to how difficult it is to isolate QB performance so there’s more left to judgement, and a lot of season to season variation in commonly used statistical references.

Mahomes is also this weird LeBron-like case where he’s expected to be the GOAT (based on early career success) and his career is viewed from the perspective of “okay what does he have to do to surpass *that* guy”. Leads to more scrutiny, just as LeBron faced.

[Special_Puppy]

I think the similarly high finishes for Purdy, Tua, and Dak strongly indicate the extent to which those metrics fail at separating quarterback play from their scheme, support, and overall environment. Which is not to equate the Bills with the 49ers/Cowboys/Dolphins on that front, but unless you believe those metrics would maintain if you started rotating quarterbacks across the league, the seasonal value of those metrics is pretty muted. Allen is a general consensus top two to three quarterback without them, and he will not be the consensus best until he looks like a more dominant postseason quarterback than Mahomes.

Out of curiosity what’s your preferred way of evaluating NFL QBs?

[AEnigma]

I think the similarly high finishes for Purdy, Tua, and Dak strongly indicate the extent to which those metrics fail at separating quarterback play from their scheme, support, and overall environment. Which is not to equate the Bills with the 49ers/Cowboys/Dolphins on that front, but unless you believe those metrics would maintain if you started rotating quarterbacks across the league, the seasonal value of those metrics is pretty muted. Allen is a general consensus top two to three quarterback without them, and he will not be the consensus best until he looks like a more dominant postseason quarterback than Mahomes.

Out of curiosity what’s your preferred way of evaluating NFL QBs?

QB wins.

Slightly more seriously, how they perform in adverse conditions.

[sp6r=underrated]

Zach Lowe out at ESPN which is very disappointing as he was one of their best basketball analysts.

[Doctor MJ]

Zach Lowe out at ESPN which is very disappointing as he was one of their best basketball analysts.

I'm stunned by the news and would have rated him as their best analyst.

First, I'm seeing some say that Lowe wasn't that impressive to them. To that I'd say that during the Grantland years he was the best basketball writer around, and his drop off since then I've always interpreted as being more about what ESPN wanted from him.

That's not to say I think he's the best basketball analyst on the internet - Ben Taylor exists, as do other independents like Nate Duncan who have regularly putting out content good enough that ESPN wanted nothing to do with them.

I say that snarkily. People have been bashing ESPN for decades, but to me they earned the place as the best site for basketball and sports in general with quality products separate from TV...and then they gradually gave up on anything quality in the name of outrage and clicks.

I look forward to what Lowe does next, and at this point there feels like an opening for another company to really go all-in on quality now that ESPN has divested itself from such thing.

And yeah, I can't tell y'all how short-sighted I think this is for a company like ESPN to embrace only the low-brow content. Clearly people think "Well, this is what the people want.", but if you want to dominate a field you have to try to dominate the prestige niches too. In the past ESPN understood this, and I think in the future, they'll understand it again, as the ESPN brand becomes known as basically the "Jerry Springer of Sports" Network.

[Cavsfansince84]

Zach Lowe out at ESPN which is very disappointing as he was one of their best basketball analysts.

I think its better for him in the long run. He will find a place where his whole style of writing and whatnot is more appreciated I think.

[OhayoKD]

Zach Lowe's an ok writer who watches film and analyses it...passably and is clueless on data despite marketing himself as data-driven. His personality is a refreshing shift from espn normally and for that I think it may be an ill-advised move, but we don't need to deify him. Richard Jefferson does the job better frankly.

[Doctor MJ]

Zach Lowe's an ok writer who watches film and analyses it...passably and is clueless on data despite marketing himself as data-driven. His personality is a refreshing shift from espn normally and for that I think it may be an ill-advised move, but we don't need to deify him. Richard Jefferson does the job better frankly.

I have no use for Jefferson at all. I'd be happy to put him on an island with Bayless, SAS, Perk, and all the rest of the guys who are more about zingers than anything else.

[ronnymac2]

Dang, RIP to Dikembe Mutombo. By all accounts, a class act and respected international ambassador for the game. He did a lot of philanthropic work and seemed like a cheerful guy. He did a lot of good in his 58 years here.

When I was a kid, I remember my dad telling me about the guy who scored 100 points, Wilt Chamberlain, and how he played against the greatest defensive player ever, Bill Russell. These guys were titans and myths in my mind - but I could never watch them play. So I asked if anybody current could be like those two. He said Shaquille O'Neal is a bit like Wilt, and Dikembe is probably the best defensive player now. So in a sense - for a 9-year old, in 1997-ish - they were myths come to life.

Dikembe played during the best era of top-end talent at the C position ever. He shared a court with one of his future contemporaries/rivals as a Hoya - Alonzo Mourning. He made All-Star as a rookie. He captained the most shocking playoff upset in NBA playoff history with the greatest display of rim-protection anybody could imagine. His 1997 Atlanta Hawks were one of the more low-key single-season strong teams of the 90's.

I remember the Knicks facing off against a higher-seeded but less-talented ATL team in 1999, and despite NY's momentum coming off a win against first-seeded Miami, there was an attitude that getting past a Mutombo-led team was never easy. The man had a rep.

Dikembe got to the Finals in 2001 after a truly dominant ECF against a Milwaukee team boasting the top offense in the league. New Jersey brought Dikembe in because they thought it was their only chance if they made the Finals against O'Neal/Duncan. It was cool having him in NY for a season - wish we gave him more to work with. Then he finished his career backing up Yao Ming in one of the best C rotations ever. What a career!

[penbeast0]

I know there have been many NBA players who gave back to the community and the world but when I think of one, it's always either Mutombo or Manute Bol for their efforts to help Africa.

[ShaqAttac]

is pass rtg like per?

[trex_8063]

Dang. I missed the end of World Series last night.

I'm not much of a baseball fan, but I do like watching a little here and there, mostly the WS. Was kinda rooting for the Dodgers.

I saw a pinch of the 3rd and 4th innings, and then watched almost all of that wild 5th inning (THREE unforced errors by the Yankees allowed the Dodgers to climb out of a 0-5 deficit and tie the game). Decided I wanted to keep watching, but......I do shift work, currently on the early shift which requires my getting up at 03:30 MST (and I barely slept Monday night [insomnia + anxiety is a fun combo]). So my plan to stay up and watch was falling apart by the bottom of the 6th; I was too tired.

Went to bed and missed the Dodgers closing out the series .

[jalengreen]

[...]

Regardless, to me it's not really in doubt that Allen was better last regular season. Honestly, he was my MVP. And then Mahomes went into his house and outplayed him when it mattered most (and similarly outplayed the other MVP candidates in the weeks to follow). So regardless of how I feel about his 2023 regular season compared to Allen and Lamar, I'd certainly still have Mahomes #1. But if he has another below expectation regular season and *isn't* able to mask that in the playoffs (remember, the Chiefs failing to win the Super Bowl is the most likely outcome at this point, and the AFC is stacked with elite quarterbacks), many people will be very quick to claim that his reign as the consensus best is over.

Few months later and it's continued to be a down year for Mahomes (not as much as the statistics suggest, imo, but certainly nowhere close to where he should be) while Allen/Lamar have both taken considerable leaps - somewhat reminiscent of Mahomes' 2022 season. Truly incredible the level at which the two of them are playing, and I think a ring from either would result in most people calling them the BITW. Easier said than done, of course, and we saw what happened last year. But I think the leaps they have each taken are significant and worthy of noting - they were both better than Pat in the RS last year, MVP-1 and MVP-2 respectively, and they've both been all-around better and smarter passers this year than last.