Notanoob wrote:Quotatious wrote:
Okay, so I'll go ahead and vote for Dirk Werner Nowitzki.
I'm actually surprised (pretty sure Chuck feels the same way) that I voted for KG over Dirk, but at this point, I think Nowitzki's case is as good as anyone's. He actually plays BETTER in the playoffs than in the regular season, when you look at his career numbers (at least as good), which has to count for something, especially considering how difficult his competition was in the 2000s Western conference. His supporting casts were good, but not great, and he was always the main focal point of opposing gameplans, yet he was able to handle it extremely well (outside of a few bad series, but who didn't have a bad playoff series in his career?). His scoring average goes up in the postseason (22.5 to 25.6), on basically the same efficiency, about 58% TS, as does his rebounding (8.1 to 10.1). I truly believe that he's probably one of the 10 best playoff performers in NBA history. He looks pretty good in RAPM, and to me, the most valuable thing that it indicates is the fact that his defense was more or less a positive for almost his entire career. It means that he basically didn't have any weaknesses. He's not particularly great in a lot of aspects (unlike KG), but he's definitely an elite scorer and overall offensive player, too (not a great passer, but takes outstanding care of the ball and makes simple, fundamentally sound passes, doesn't risk turning the ball over).
I admit that it came down to Kobe vs Dirk for me, and with Nowitzki's longevity not being far off Bryant's at this point, and him apparently being a better teammate, better for team chemistry, I'm going with Dirk in a close decision.
If that's the case, I'd like you to reconsider your vote for West.
He was a more efficient player when you adjust for era, and considering his reputation as a shooter I would not worry how he'd translate.
Pace adjusted, Kobe has the volume advantage, but who's to say that West couldn't handle a higher volume? Imagine if Baylor wasn't taking more shots than him all the time during his prime.
He was the better playmaker, considering that he could actually play PG.
He was likely a better defender, given his rep, and check his averages in his last season- 2.6 steals and .7 blocks. Last time Kobe got that many BPG was his 05 season, and Kobe was half West's age at that point! Kobe's never gotten 2.6spg either. I know that using these stats to approximate defense is generally a pretty poor idea, but for a guard to be picking up those kinds of stats at his age is astounding.
The longevity game isn't insurmountable- West played 14 seasons and was an all-star every year, a very good player, until his last, but he didn't start playing in the NBA until he was 22, at which point Kobe was a 4 year veteran.
He raised his game in the playoffs regularly, excelling against the Celtic's dynasty defense, while Kobe struggled sometimes facing great defenses in the playoffs.
You're making a lot of good points here, and I'd definitely love to vote for West, especially if he'd be one spot after Oscar, since they're basically as inseparable as Magic and Bird, but I felt like Kobe and Dirk had a better case. First, pace-adjusted, West's numbers weren't THAT great (not that pace adjustment is particularly accurate, because it implies that he'd still play the same game as he did in the 60s, just with fewer possessions, which clearly isn't the case, but it's still probably one of, if not THE best way to estimate how he'd look like statistically today, and for instance his contemporary Oscar looks better in this regard), second, the competition at guard spots and especially perimeter defenses, were much worse than they are today, especially perimeter D was more or less a joke compared to now, though interior D was much tougher - West was equally capable of getting to the rim, he drew a ton of fouls and he really was primarily a slasher, but his outside shot was really potent by all accounts, as well, so yeah, I guess there's a good reason to believe that he'd be able to make an adjustment depending on how any particular defense would play him, so I may give him the benefit of the doubt, especially adding the 3-point line, as he had enough range to shoot good percentage from there consistently - I'd say 35-36% on 4 attempts seems like a fair guess, MAYBE even a bit conservative, but it's still just pure speculation, but t would perhaps elevate his TS% even more).
As far as West's defensive reputation, I'm really not sure what to think about that. Kobe's defensive reputation is also terrific, but we know that a lot of it is undeserved. Could be similar with West. Sure, his big steal totals even as a 35 year old player in his last season are very impressive, so there's a reason to believe that he really was a great defender (plus he was such a perfecionist, especially on defense, that it's very possible that he really is a true all-time great defensive guard - could even be similar to Jordan). On the other hand, steals aren't always indicative of a great defender. I mean - Allen Iverson averaged almost 3 steals per game in some seasons, and I've never seen anyone referring to him as a great defender. Coincidentally, Iverson and West is IMO a pretty decent comparison as far as style of play on the offensive end. Jerry was certainly smarter, more unselfish and efficient, but stylistically, they're similar. Prime Arenas, too, although it seems like a safe bet that West was a lot better defensively.
Getting back to his scoring/shooting, I guess his FT% might be a decent starting point - it's obviously very solid, about 81% for his career, but both Oscar and Kobe are better in this regard, so I don't really buy that West is an all-time great shooter - he's not even necessarily better than these two guys), unless he's really an outlier in the sense that he shot relatively better from the field than from the line (for example LeBron is IMO an outlier like that, or especially Goran Dragic)
One thing that I think is really wrong is comparing West's numbers with the 2000s guys, like RayBan-Sematra did with West and Kobe - it really doesn't make much sense because of the obvious differences between the eras. The thing about West (and Oscar) being more efficient than Kobe relative to the league thay played in, is obviously correct, though.
Just some food for thought, but you've really made me second-guess my pick here. I certainly didn't want to be too shallow, but also didn't want to overanalyze who I should vote for, as like I've said before, I see a really good case for a few players here, not just West or Dirk (Kobe, Dr. J, Karl Malone or D-Rob all seem to have some pretty obvious things going for them), but West's case seems strong enough that I may seriously reconsider my vote.
