RealGM Top 100 List #14

[ronnymac2]

Dirk is one of the greatest playoff defensive rebounders in NBA history. Check out this list with arbitrary criteria:

http://bkref.com/tiny/Qq9cK

At least 20 playoff games, a defensive rebound rate of 20%, and a scoring average over 20 points per game.

I know this takes into account longevity, so it includes a lot of guys whose numbers came down as they hit their decline period, but Dirk is middle of the pack in total minutes here, so if anything, it speaks to his graceful decline and his longevity. Nowitzki's defensive rebound rate is proximate to Duncan's and Barkley's. He's the second highest scoring player by volume (just below Dream), has the 3rd highest TS% just below Sir Charles, and has the best turnover rate (Karl Malone is second).

To me, Dirk Nowitzki not only has great longevity as a scoring threat. He's got great longevity as a possession protector and game controller. If you're facing a Nowitzki-led team, chances are you're only going to get one half-court look at the basket on your offensive possession. So you better make it count, because on the other end, Dirk's efficient scoring, spacing, defense-warping, and decision-making is probably going to give his team a very good conversion rate on the first shot of each of their possessions.

[SactoKingsFan]

Impressive NBA Prime

NBA Prime (77-84) RS Per 100: 30.7 PTS, 9.7 TRB, 5.4 AST, 2.5 STL, 2.1 BLK, 4.3 TOV
NBA Prime (77-84) RS: 23.2 PER, .564 TS%, .352 FTr, 111 ORtg, 99 DRtg, .197 WS/48

NBA Prime (77-84) PS Per 100: 28.6 PTS, 9.2 TRB, 5.3 AST, 2.1 STL, 2.3 BLK, 4.3 TOV
NBA Prime (77-84) PS: 21.1 PER, .551 TS%, .379 FTr, 108 ORTg, 101 DRtg, .164 WS/48

Longevity (Prime RS G/MP)

Moses in Doctor J's prime years

RS: 23.7 PER .574 TS%, 114 ORtg, 102 DRtg. .195 WS/48
PS: 22.4 PER, .552 TS%, 113 ORtg, 103DRtg, .182 WS/48

I think Moses should have more support here.

Moses had a great career, but I'm not seriously considering him over Dr J who peaked higher, was a two way player with vastly superior playmaking ability and had more impressive peak playoff performances.

[DQuinn1575]

Actually, how do we feel about West's range? I know there's anecdotal evidence of him hitting some super long shots, but are there any mentions of his ability to hit from the corner (I think I've heard this specifically about Oscar, so maybe it was said for West as well) or anything else (I know the ABA called their three, with the same line as today, the "25-footer" at times, maybe that language was used to describe West's jumper at times as well)?

From what I've seen, West shot more from the top of the key and elbows more than the corners, although I did see him beat the Warriors with a deep corner shot as time expired.

Between he and Oscar, I would say West shot more from the "corners" (left corner more than right in games I saw) and Oscar shot much more from the "baseline". The distinction is that Oscar loved to post up on the baseline and would take a lot of 8-10 foot jumpers from the baseline but not from deep in the corner. West also posted up some on the baseline but not as often as Oscar. West was more likely to take the 18-22 footer in the corner than Oscar would.

If you are interested in anecdotal info on Wests range, I can post that later tonight.

Thanks for the response. Love insight from people who watched these greats.

If it's not too much trouble, anecdotal info would be great too. I might have to consider changing my vote to West here.

Agree - generally Oscar would shoot closer in than West - the line was that if you gave Oscar a 15 footer he would work it into a 12 footer - he would back people in a lot and take the turnaround.

West was much more likely to take longer shots, and was more of a catch and shoot guy than Oscar.

Remember (or realize) that Oscar was a true point guard, handling the ball a lot - West was mostly a 1/2 - frequently sharing ball handling duties.

Based on the way they played, I would think that West would be a better 3 point shooter than Oscar, and one of the very best from the era. Realize though, that shooting 25 footers were bad shots, and if they did count for 3 then guys would have worked on that skill.

Also note West was a great defender - his steal total the one year at his advanced age shows his anticipation - realize he probably gambled more with Wilt and Elmore Smith behind him than earlier in his career.

Even if there is some name recognition in the all-defense teams - keep in mind West got the nod over Oscar, who was frequently referred to as the best all-around player in the game, and always given a real good/excellent rating as a defender.

[trex_8063]

Even if West were an elite defender for his position, as a point guard/guard he's not going to be able to impact the game nearly as much as Malone, who was elite as a big man defender.

But Malone wasn't an elite big man defender. To be elite among big men, you have to be a serious force on help defense, which Malone wasn't. Malone was a solid defender, not an elite one.

Yeah. I'm pulling for Malone at this spot, but even I'd say it's doubtful Malone impacted the game defensively more than West. Certainly the evidence available is insufficient to suggest this (even with consideration of positional circumstance).

Malone was a good defender (even very good at times), but not elite (Garnett, Duncan, Rodman......those are "elite" defensive PF's).

[An Unbiased Fan]

Dirk is one of the greatest playoff defensive rebounders in NBA history. Check out this list with arbitrary criteria:

http://bkref.com/tiny/Qq9cK

At least 20 playoff games, a defensive rebound rate of 20%, and a scoring average over 20 points per game.

I know this takes into account longevity, so it includes a lot of guys whose numbers came down as they hit their decline period, but Dirk is middle of the pack in total minutes here, so if anything, it speaks to his graceful decline and his longevity. Nowitzki's defensive rebound rate is proximate to Duncan's and Barkley's. He's the second highest scoring player by volume (just below Dream), has the 3rd highest TS% just below Sir Charles, and has the best turnover rate (Karl Malone is second).

To me, Dirk Nowitzki not only has great longevity as a scoring threat. He's got great longevity as a possession protector and game controller. If you're facing a Nowitzki-led team, chances are you're only going to get one half-court look at the basket on your offensive possession. So you better make it count, because on the other end, Dirk's efficient scoring, spacing, defense-warping, and decision-making is probably going to give his team a very good conversion rate on the first shot of each of their possessions.

Sorry, but Dirk is #71 all-time in DReb%. He only had 2 seasons where he was even in the Top 10 for DReb% (02 & 03). He wasn't an elite defensive rebounder.

Should also be pointed out that only 59 players in NBA history average 20+ ppg for their career, AND DRB% has only been around since 1971, so old-timers don't show up. The whole 20+ppg on 20% DRB% is misleading.

[Jim Naismith]

According to RPoY, here are #1 players every year whose RPoY share for that year was at least .970. (This is equivalent to 90% of the voters agreeing the player is #1, and 10% saying he is #2).

Players not on this list: Duncan, Kobe, Karl Malone, Dirk, David Robinson, Erving, West

Moses is only dominant #1 that has not been ranked.

Summarizing the data in my previous post.

Number of Years as Dominant #1 Player
Michael Jordan 6
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 4
Bill Russell 4
Larry Bird 2
LeBron James 2
Moses Malone 2
Shaquille O'Neal 2
Hakeem Olajuwon 1
Wilt Chamberlain 1
Kevin Garnett 1
Magic Johnson 1

Note the absence of these already ranked players: Duncan, Oscar, and Kobe.

Also note the absence of these yet-unranked players: West, Karl Malone, Dirk, David Robinson, Dr. J

[DQuinn1575]

So at what point of time can we not put the asterisk of "his era" when discussing players? At what point are players not punished for their era in your opinion?

I certainly think the NBA had evolved a lot by the end of West's career, so say 1970 onwards. The pace was still a bit of a factor, but the level of competition was not as problematic as the 60's had mostly been. There are reasons for this I go into in depth in earlier threads (more blacks, more professional league, etc).

That's what I thought you were coming up with. There was a magical revolution right at the end of the 50s as the hook shot/two handed set shot generation retired and the true jump shooters took over the league creating a real revolution from about 58 to 61 in the actual style of play (in my opinion). If this was where you were drawing the line it would make sense but I don't see one at the end of the 60s to 70s anywhere near similar.

You are discounting the effect of the biggest expansion in NBA history (expansion has been shown to have a strong statistical effect), player's playing for league jumping contracts destroying team cohesion, cocaine entering the league, etc. all because you think there was some magical revolution in the way basketball was being played in 1970? What was it? I can point to specific stylistic changes from the late 50s to the ealry 60s together with a clear and obvious statistical correlation. Can you point to anything other than more money that significantly changes between 68 and 72?

Makes little sense to me but that's your opinion.

58-61 also includes the addition of Russell, (first full season), Wilt, Oscar, Baylor, and West into the league.

[ardee]

Dirk is one of the greatest playoff defensive rebounders in NBA history. Check out this list with arbitrary criteria:

http://bkref.com/tiny/Qq9cK

At least 20 playoff games, a defensive rebound rate of 20%, and a scoring average over 20 points per game.

I know this takes into account longevity, so it includes a lot of guys whose numbers came down as they hit their decline period, but Dirk is middle of the pack in total minutes here, so if anything, it speaks to his graceful decline and his longevity. Nowitzki's defensive rebound rate is proximate to Duncan's and Barkley's. He's the second highest scoring player by volume (just below Dream), has the 3rd highest TS% just below Sir Charles, and has the best turnover rate (Karl Malone is second).

To me, Dirk Nowitzki not only has great longevity as a scoring threat. He's got great longevity as a possession protector and game controller. If you're facing a Nowitzki-led team, chances are you're only going to get one half-court look at the basket on your offensive possession. So you better make it count, because on the other end, Dirk's efficient scoring, spacing, defense-warping, and decision-making is probably going to give his team a very good conversion rate on the first shot of each of their possessions.

Sorry, but Dirk is #71 all-time in DReb%. He only had 2 seasons where he was even in the Top 10 for DReb% (02 & 03). He wasn't an elite defensive rebounder.

Should also be pointed out that only 59 players in NBA history average 20+ ppg for their career, AND DRB% has only been around since 1971, so old-timers don't show up. The whole 20+ppg on 20% DRB% is misleading.

No. 13 in Playoff DReb%. And as you know, Dirk has made his biggest mark in the Playoffs.

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[ardee]

I think Dirk isn't getting enough credit for his peak here.

Peak Dirk is the best player of anyone left.

You can't replace 2011 Dirk with any of the remaining peaked players and expect those kinds of results (even if you change the fit of the team at the same talent level).

It's like people are forgetting how horrifying it was to be on the other side of Dirk that year. I know, as a Laker fan, he left me almost in tears with what he was doing to us.

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[trex_8063]

Few minor points......

bballref puts his post-season ORtg in the 16-year span (SIXTEEN!....yes I'm shamelessly playing the longevity card there ) at 107 (not 106); the cumulative league avg (in rs anyway) was 106.2 (though not sure if league avg doesn't drop in the post-season, too; is playoff-only team ORtg/DRtg data available anywhere?).

Right, but I said his "postseason ORTG," which references his whole career....

The 107 refers to his postseason ORtg, too (just in the years I had specified---'88-'03---which I assumed you were replying directly to, given the quoting of my post).

At any rate, we appear to be largely citing the same information, but drawing slightly divergent conclusions from it, mostly relating to this comment:

Volume isn't necessarily an indicator of quality so much as a product of usage, so that becomes something of a concern when his efficiency doesn't stack up...

See, I don't necessarily agree with the bolded (NOTE: unless the efficiency is truly awful). You take both into consideration, while also factoring in circumstance/context. To me, getting elite level volume on generally average (or slightly above average) efficiency is still fairly impressive when you're facing a lot of elite defenses (which as my prior post perhaps indicated Malone faced "more than his fair share" of elite defenses), AND you don't have any other isolation scorers (not even a Jamal Crawford or similar) to take some of the heat off.

Just as an extreme hypothetical, suppose the Jazz instead turned to Bryon Russell (telling him---as you said---"OK, go! Be magical!"), literally DOUBLING his usage, forcing him to try to score in isolation with regularity, made him the focus of the opposing defense.....what would happen?

Well, he might get as high as 23-26 ppg (~30-32 pts per 100 possessions), but would likely be on approximately .460-.490 TS% and probably with nearly 4 topg, too; his ORtg would likely be around 95 (and I'm willing to bet the Jazz make almost nothing BUT 1st round exits). How does Malone's output and efficiency look now by comparison?

And Bryon Russell was NOT a bad offensive player, either. But that's what would happen if you put a merely average/decent offensive player into that circumstance.

Malone's post-season offensive output/efficiency only appears lackluster when you compare it to that of the hyper-elite offensive forwards, like Dirk and Barkley.
But again: Malone was a better defender than either of them, and was a better rebounder than Dirk. And he's got at least a small longevity and durability argument over both, as well.

and he's also turning the ball over a decent amount of the time......

Hmmm....
His career post-season TOV per 100 possessions is 3.8. That's barely behind the career PS avg's of Tim Duncan and Charles Barkley (3.7 each), and better than that of:
Amar'e Stoudemire (3.9)
Shaq O'Neal (4.3)
Julius Erving (4.7)
Dwyane Wade (4.8)
Dwight Howard (4.9)
Shawn Kemp (5.0)

The only players currently in the discussion that it's significantly behind are Moses Malone (3.3), and Dirk Nowitzki (3.0). Dirk's ball-control numbers are well-renowned, and part of why I won't declare that Malone is the better passer/play-maker despite the vastly superior apg numbers. Although don't overlook that Dirk is averaging fewer TO's while also putting up less volume and with somewhat lower USG% (even in the ps).

[DQuinn1575]

Vote count anyone?

Should be close to run-off time.

[Basketballefan]

I think Dirk isn't getting enough credit for his peak here.

Peak Dirk is the best player of anyone left.

You can't replace 2011 Dirk with any of the remaining peaked players and expect those kinds of results (even if you change the fit of the team at the same talent level).

It's like people are forgetting how horrifying it was to be on the other side of Dirk that year. I know, as a Laker fan, he left me almost in tears with what he was doing to us.

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To be fair though most posters here didn't see Dr J and West play so for all you know it may have been just as amazing to watch them as it was Dirk.

[drza]

I think Dirk isn't getting enough credit for his peak here.

Peak Dirk is the best player of anyone left.

You can't replace 2011 Dirk with any of the remaining peaked players and expect those kinds of results (even if you change the fit of the team at the same talent level).

It's like people are forgetting how horrifying it was to be on the other side of Dirk that year. I know, as a Laker fan, he left me almost in tears with what he was doing to us.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using RealGM Forums mobile app

See, I don't think that I agree. Well, I should clarify. I agree that Dirk's peak was monstrous, and I'm one of the ones that really can't find much to differentiate him from the last couple of players to be voted in. But as far as the underlined goes, I think that if we built a team with similar talent to the '11 Mavs that better fit David Robinson and came together like that, I think he'd have been a nightmare. One of the differences is that Dirk's teammates had strengths that were often defensive in nature or skills that we ascribe to role players. Whereas with Robinson, he wouldn't have needed that level of defensive help and the support would have been more offensive in nature. The thing is, equivalent support with more offensive bent would probably lead to more accolades and attention and would therefore be seen as better support...even if it really wasn't.

For instance, I think if you put Robinson on the current Spurs in place of Duncan, then swapped out Tony Parker for an older player at a similar career level as Jason Kidd...say, a near-40 Steve Nash that could stay healthy. Without attempting to be rigorous, I think that would be a level of support similar to what Dirk received in 2011 but with a more offensive bent. And I think Robinson would have been absolutely beastly with that support, and would have marched through the playoffs this year in an even more impressive fashion. He'd likely have swept MVP, DPoY and Finals MVP and this year would have received acclaim for Robinson like 2000 Shaq.

I don't know. Transcendants that hit that perfect storm of peaking when their support suits them (even if not huge brand names) deserve credit. But I don't think that we can assume that other transcendants couldn't have matched their result, if things would have come together for them in a similar way.

[Clyde Frazier]

Dirk is one of the greatest playoff defensive rebounders in NBA history. Check out this list with arbitrary criteria:

http://bkref.com/tiny/Qq9cK

At least 20 playoff games, a defensive rebound rate of 20%, and a scoring average over 20 points per game.

I know this takes into account longevity, so it includes a lot of guys whose numbers came down as they hit their decline period, but Dirk is middle of the pack in total minutes here, so if anything, it speaks to his graceful decline and his longevity. Nowitzki's defensive rebound rate is proximate to Duncan's and Barkley's. He's the second highest scoring player by volume (just below Dream), has the 3rd highest TS% just below Sir Charles, and has the best turnover rate (Karl Malone is second).

To me, Dirk Nowitzki not only has great longevity as a scoring threat. He's got great longevity as a possession protector and game controller. If you're facing a Nowitzki-led team, chances are you're only going to get one half-court look at the basket on your offensive possession. So you better make it count, because on the other end, Dirk's efficient scoring, spacing, defense-warping, and decision-making is probably going to give his team a very good conversion rate on the first shot of each of their possessions.

Sorry, but Dirk is #71 all-time in DReb%. He only had 2 seasons where he was even in the Top 10 for DReb% (02 & 03). He wasn't an elite defensive rebounder.

Should also be pointed out that only 59 players in NBA history average 20+ ppg for their career, AND DRB% has only been around since 1971, so old-timers don't show up. The whole 20+ppg on 20% DRB% is misleading.

Pure counting stats or not, this puts dirk in elite territory.

http://bkref.com/tiny/xQ3kt

[Jim Naismith]

The whole 20+ppg on 20% DRB% is misleading.

Pure counting stats or not, this puts dirk in elite territory.

http://bkref.com/tiny/xQ3kt

We're talking about only elites in this discussion, so it's not much of a differentiator.

Moses' 15-Year Prime (1975-1989)
RS: 22.6 ppg / 13.6 rpg
PS : 23.1 ppg / 14.4 rpg

Moses is 2.5 ppg worse than Dirk and 4.3 rpg better.

[penbeast0]

OK, I have the votes as follows:

9 Jerry West (penbeast0, RayBan-Sematra, ShaqAttack3234, ardee, batmana, RSCD3_, tsherkin, HeartbreakKid, Quotatious)

5 Karl Malone (Baller2014, FJS, trex_8063, ronnymac2, magicmerl)

6 Julius Erving (Warspite, john248, drza, Dhodgkins, SactoKingsFan, Clyde Frazier)

2 Moses Malone (DannyNoonan1221, DQuinn 1575)

2 Dirk Nowitzki (rich 316, fpliii)

And Julius Erving leaps over Karl Malone to move into the runoff.

One good thing, the issues of era backlash and statistical inflation cut both ways in this debate so . . .

The Doctor v. The Logo

[penbeast0]

To be fair though most posters here didn't see Dr J and West play so for all you know it may have been just as amazing to watch them as it was Dirk.

I watched a bit of both in their primes (even caught a bit of ABA action since I was a big ABA fan since they used to let us into games free when Rick Barry played in Washington) . . .

West was like Dirk. You would just hope he didn't get the ball because if he did, it would be a good shot. More dynamic defensively even in 1969 on (though part of that was era; lot more turnovers and fast breaks so more dynamic play).

Erving was like Jordan. Just ridiculous; should have been outlawed for being a toon.

[Baller2014]

Yeh, that's the count, except I think Moonbeam voted for Jerry West (maybe not officially). A lot of people didn't vote in time (again), but hopefully they will now that it's a run off. My run-off vote is unbelievably easy. I vote for the guy who had a better prime, peak and longevity, and was better on both ends of the court, as I explained in my OP.

Vote- Dr J

Just to emphasise one thing. Dr J played a lot of his career at a higher pace than today, but the pace he played at was nowhere near the pace J.West played at when he put up his worse stats (and worse impact). The 1976 Nets played at a pace of 105.9. Jerry West's teams played at a pace of around 114-126, vastly higher. Jerry West never showed he had the impact to carry a team like Dr J did with the 76 Nets, and Dr J has more longevity too.

[Purch]

Why exactly is Peak Dirk better than Peak Barkley, When Barkley was the more dominant and versatile offensive player?

[DQuinn1575]

To be fair though most posters here didn't see Dr J and West play so for all you know it may have been just as amazing to watch them as it was Dirk.

I watched a bit of both in their primes (even caught a bit of ABA action since I was a big ABA fan since they used to let us into games free when Rick Barry played in Washington) . . .

West was like Dirk. You would just hope he didn't get the ball because if he did, it would be a good shot. More dynamic defensively even in 1969 on (though part of that was era; lot more turnovers and fast breaks so more dynamic play).

Erving was like Jordan. Just ridiculous; should have been outlawed for being a toon.

Two most famous shots in NBA history?

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz-lyvtuilM[/youtube]



[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAlvOfgNoP0[/youtube]