Giannis Antetokounmpo 20-21 Thread

[BobbyPortisFan]

Jesus, not this idiotic "2016 Lebron wazz a GoAt tieR defender" nonsense again. Giannis peaked higher defensively 3 years ago than Lebron ever did. Like, it's laughable to keep trying to compare any perimeter or non-rim protector defender to Giannis. Just stop.

Giannis is obviously a much better defender but lebron was the primary rim protector on every team he played on from 2009 to 2017. So callinh him a "non rim protector" is wierd. He was the big defensively for two great postseaosn defenses at 30 and 31...

This is not even remotely supported by the stats.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2052309&hilit=DFGA

What does dfga have to do with paint protection...

[BobbyPortisFan]

It's not the first debate about LeBron's defense in 2016. I don't think any of sides will change their minds after another empty discussion.

One side has the gulf of statistical analysis and the other doubts all the evidence.

Tracking data is extremely noisy, especially at such a small sample of size. Let's assume that it paints fair picture though - we all know how man defense is generally overrated in casual discussions, why do we start to worship it when James looks good by that criteria?

Well him being a great man defender has to be contextualized with the fact he was also the cavs primary paint protector and their primary help defender/defensive playmaker...Lebron looking very good as a man defender when he's already brushing up against the upper limit of what wings have done elsewhere for elite postseason defenses makes him a goatish defensive wing. Now giannis had twice the volume as a man defender, is a way better paint protector and an elite help defender so this shouldn't be a convo, but there's a reason lebron had such good defensive impact stuff and such a good track record on a team level defensively

[BobbyPortisFan]

Let’s start with this:

Again, for the record, I am absolutely not trying to disparage Lebron's fantastic 2016 Finals. He's a top 3 player ever who was performing at the height of his basketball abilities.

That said, the problem I have with a lot of what you quoted is context. As far as I'm concerned game 5 is basically a write off because Warriors were missing their PG due to suspension which meant they had to rely on Iggy to be the man along with a compromised Curry who had to do more ball handling on a bum knee than he was capable of. Game 6 Lebron was terrific. Game 7 he defended 8 total shots. If we look at games 6 and 7 added together he defended 19 shots but 10 of them were threes which as we know are largely determined by luck from defensive POV. The idea that Lebron has some special three point defense super power that's absent from the reigning DPOY who's longer and more menacing is just straight BS so don't even go there.

Further, I would strongly push back on the idea that Lebron was the main driver of their defensive success. Look a little closer and you can see that Tristan Thompson was the true anchor. If we look at all 7 games Tristan has the best DRTG of 100 (Lebron was 104). When they shared the court Lebron's DRTG was 95 but when Tristan sat it ballooned to 121. Tristan's DRTG was ugly w/out Lebron but the SS was only 12 mins of garbage time so hard to take anything away there. This holds up over the final 3 games too (93 DRTG w TT < 108 DRTG w/out TT). And again, Tristan defended way more shots. Per 36, TT's DFGAs over the series were 15.6 to 9.5 for James. Tristan also managed to rebound at a similar level to James (21% to 24% DRBD%) despite taking the tougher defensive assignments. Shump, RJ, and JR spent the most time on Steph and Klay while Lebron rested on Iggy or Draymond.

We can actually do a similar analysis offensively with Kyrie who never gets any credit for that series. Lebron 112 ORTG w Kyrie, 81 ORTG w/out Kyrie over the series (drops to 64 ORTG w/out Kyrie over final 3 games).

And then build an argument around Giannis having a better defensive game last night than any of LeBron’s in G5-G7 of the 16 finals.

Let's start here: Giannis defended 22 shots in game 7 and had 5 blocks despite going for 50. That's yeoman's work. Again, Lebron defended 11 shots in game 6 and 8 in game 7. Like, it's not even comparable.

This is bad faith nonsense. This is my genuine observation on a series I’ve thought about for years versus a guys bad assumption on top of assumptions to make up for it.
Can you link those WOWY stats? They may well be true, but you said Giannis defended 22 shots last night.

He went 9/19.

And saying things like LeBron “rested” on the screen setter to deadliest play in basketball, is again bad faith nonsense.

While the wings chased Curry/Klay. So where does Thompson’s chance to take on “tougher assignments” come in?


Again, this is just the post of a guy trying to win an argument as opposed to explain a point of view.

And am I supposed to assume Kyrie had a better offensive series than LeBron because of those questionable and incomplete WOWY stats?

If not, then why would I assume Thompson > LeBron defensively?

And I want to make clear I believe LeBron’s shot DETERRENCE and help defensive awareness - things that don’t come close to being fully tracked by a box score or defense shots defended, are easily why he was a rare level of dominant defensively, to me.

Shot defended stats just show the extremeness and completeness of his dominance. But I believe what I believe because of literally every aspect of the series.

The competition, the scheme(based on him), the visible help defense in those last games, and the stats.

There’s no objective or logical way to conclude he did not have an amazing defensive stretch looking at all that.

Discounting giannis guarded twice as many shots is bad faith nonsense... If a player scored 40 slightly less effeciently than another player scored 20 you wouldn't say player b scored better....

[70sFan]

One side has the gulf of statistical analysis and the other doubts all the evidence.

Tracking data is extremely noisy, especially at such a small sample of size. Let's assume that it paints fair picture though - we all know how man defense is generally overrated in casual discussions, why do we start to worship it when James looks good by that criteria?

Well him being a great man defender has to be contextualized with the fact he was also the cavs primary paint protector and their primary help defender/defensive playmaker...Lebron looking very good as a man defender when he's already brushing up against the upper limit of what wings have done elsewhere for elite postseason defenses makes him a goatish defensive wing. Now giannis had twice the volume as a man defender, is a way better paint protector and an elite help defender so this shouldn't be a convo, but there's a reason lebron had such good defensive impact stuff and such a good track record on a team level defensively

Every criticism I made about LeBron here is relative to Giannis or other top tier defensive bigs. I never tried to say that James series wasn't amazing, but it's not GOAT-worthy.

[falcolombardi]

so since we derailed this thread (me included for a lot of fault) and to bring it back to actually talking about giannis

what moves should bucks consider doing now if they wanna keep competing next seasons ? try to keep yhe same roster (is that even possible salaries wise?) or do some moves?

[LukaTheGOAT]

Jesus, not this idiotic "2016 Lebron wazz a GoAt tieR defender" nonsense again. Giannis peaked higher defensively 3 years ago than Lebron ever did. Like, it's laughable to keep trying to compare any perimeter or non-rim protector defender to Giannis. Just stop.

I don't think it's even worth time to touch this topic anymore. For some people LeBron has to be the GOAT at everything.

So since the numbers we have available to us say 2009 LeBron>1977 Kareem in pretty much every number we have, there is no need to contextualize things and we can automatically conclude any conversation about Peak Kareem being better is null correct?

[70sFan]

Jesus, not this idiotic "2016 Lebron wazz a GoAt tieR defender" nonsense again. Giannis peaked higher defensively 3 years ago than Lebron ever did. Like, it's laughable to keep trying to compare any perimeter or non-rim protector defender to Giannis. Just stop.

I don't think it's even worth time to touch this topic anymore. For some people LeBron has to be the GOAT at everything.

So since the numbers we have available to us say 2009 LeBron>1977 Kareem in pretty much every number we have, there is no need to contextualize things and we can automatically conclude any conversation about Peak Kareem being better is null correct?

No, not correct.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I don't think it's even worth time to touch this topic anymore. For some people LeBron has to be the GOAT at everything.

So since the numbers we have available to us say 2009 LeBron>1977 Kareem in pretty much every number we have, there is no need to contextualize things and we can automatically conclude any conversation about Peak Kareem being better is null correct?

No, not correct.

By the numbers, it is correct. Kareem wouldn't have an argument if we shut down debate and didn't go past looking at what the numbers say.

Which is precisely why it isn't worth shutting down debate. You are free to not participate but don't interrupt others who are curious about learning and/or testing if their assumptions are correct.

[70sFan]

So since the numbers we have available to us say 2009 LeBron>1977 Kareem in pretty much every number we have, there is no need to contextualize things and we can automatically conclude any conversation about Peak Kareem being better is null correct?

No, not correct.

By the numbers, it is correct. Kareem wouldn't have an argument if we shut down debate and didn't go past looking at what the numbers say.

Which is precisely why it isn't worth shutting down debate. You are free to not participate but don't interrupt others who are curious about learning and/or testing if their assumptions are correct.

I've made a post how trakcing stats can be misleading and I've shown that DeAndre Ayton looks better by them than LeBron in 2016 finals. Nobody replied to them though, so what's the point?

Also, James isn't better at every single metric than Jabbar.

[VanWest82]

Giannis is obviously a much better defender but lebron was the primary rim protector on every team he played on from 2009 to 2017. So callinh him a "non rim protector" is wierd. He was the big defensively for two great postseaosn defenses at 30 and 31...

This is not even remotely supported by the stats.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2052309&hilit=DFGA

What does dfga have to do with paint protection...

Look at who was leading each of Lebron's teams in DFGAs per min. Birdman, Mozgov, Frye, Tristan, Nance, McGee/Dwight, Gasol. Look at the guys who lead the league every year in DFGAs: Gobert, Capela, Ayton, Lopez, Embiid, Nurkic, etc. See a trend?

DFGAs obviously aren't a perfect barometer for volume rim protection but it's not like we can't dig deeper and look at DFGAs < 6 ft from the basket. The fact that Lebron is consistently among the lowest per min shot contesters on his teams every single year is pretty damning evidence that he isn't the primary rim protector or even one of the secondary ones. That doesn't mean he isn't a very good help defender or even a good rim protector the few times per game he actually does do it (and for the record his official number of DFGAs per 36 @ < 6 ft in 2016 Finals was only 3.1 compared with 5.5 for Tristan Thompson and 6.3 for Love).

[LukaTheGOAT]

No, not correct.

By the numbers, it is correct. Kareem wouldn't have an argument if we shut down debate and didn't go past looking at what the numbers say.

Which is precisely why it isn't worth shutting down debate. You are free to not participate but don't interrupt others who are curious about learning and/or testing if their assumptions are correct.

I've made a post how trakcing stats can be misleading and I've shown that DeAndre Ayton looks better by them than LeBron in 2016 finals. Nobody replied to them though, so what's the point?

Also, James isn't better at every single metric than Jabbar.

Your post with LeBron didn't contradict all the stats people provided with regards to LeBron's defense, only some of them.

And when I say metrics, I am referring to all-in-one metrics
What metrics are 1977 Jabber clear of in comparison to 2009 LeBron?

[LukaTheGOAT]

This is not even remotely supported by the stats.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2052309&hilit=DFGA

What does dfga have to do with paint protection...

Look at who was leading each of Lebron's teams in DFGAs per min. Birdman, Mozgov, Frye, Tristan, Nance, McGee/Dwight, Gasol. Look at the guys who lead the league every year in DFGAs: Gobert, Capela, Ayton, Lopez, Embiid, Nurkic, etc. See a trend?

DFGAs obviously aren't a perfect barometer for volume rim protection but it's not like we can't dig deeper and look at DFGAs < 6 ft from the basket. The fact that Lebron is consistently among the lowest per min shot contesters on his teams every single year is pretty damning evidence that he isn't the primary rim protector or even one of the secondary ones. That doesn't mean he isn't a very good help defender or even a good rim protector the few times per game he actually does do it (and for the record his official number of DFGAs per 36 @ < 6 ft in 2016 Finals was only 3.1 compared with 5.5 for Tristan Thompson and 6.3 for Love).

2016 Lebron-
D-RAPTOR-5.1
On/Off D-RAPTOR-9.6
Box-Score D-RAPTOR

Giannis
D-RAPTOR-3.2
On/Off D-RAPTOR-6.4
Box-Score D-RAPTOR-2.3

This is just different variations of one plus-minus metric, but if for a whole PS run it suggests 2016 Lebron>2021 Giannis, why is it absurd to suggest that Lebron for a FEW games in the Finals might have approached Giannis' impact on defense, especially when you account for him facing a more dangerous 2016 offense than the Suns?

[VanWest82]

2016 Lebron-
D-RAPTOR-5.1
On/Off D-RAPTOR-9.6
Box-Score D-RAPTOR

Giannis
D-RAPTOR-3.2
On/Off D-RAPTOR-6.4
Box-Score D-RAPTOR-2.3

This is just different variations of one plus-minus metric, but if for a whole PS run it suggests 2016 Lebron>2021 Giannis, why is it absurd to suggest that Lebron for a FEW games in the Finals might have approached Giannis' impact on defense, especially when you account for him facing a more dangerous 2016 offense than the Suns?

I'm also a fan of RAPTOR. It's too bad they won't let you break it down by series.

I'm not totally sure what to make of Lebron's 2016 post season defensive stats tbh. It's a pretty huge outlier. Nba.com match up data only goes back a few years and that part isn't baked in which is a huge boon for Lebron who rarely guards top options. His most common 2016 playoff match ups (based on memory) were 23 yr old Tobias Harris, Kent Bazemore, Demarre Carroll, and Harrison Barnes. He also spent time on Marcus Morris, Thabo Sefolosha, Patrick Patterson, Demar, Iggy, and Draymond.

Giannis didn't always take the hardest assignment either, notably guarding Blake Griffin and Jeff Green over KD, but he also shut down Jimmy Butler in round one, and guarded Collins, Capela, and Ayton in the last two rounds while frequently switching out on Chris Paul. So you can say quality of Warriors offense > Suns offense (not sure I agree given Curry's injury and Draymond's suspension) but I'd argue quality of offensive players Giannis defended > quality Lebron defended.

But the better answer is that we're not comparing playoffs. Maybe Lebron did have the better overall playoffs defensively - I wouldn't say that but he definitely has a case - but again, we're just comparing individual games here. Lebron defended 11 shots in game 6, 8 in game 7, and more than half of those were threes. Giannis defended 22 (edit: some places say 22 some say 19) in his 50 point game 6. He had 5 blocks. He was everywhere. And yes guys scored on him, and yes Lebron deterred additional shots but imo it wasn't enough to make up the difference in number of defensive plays Giannis influenced.

[GSP]

Elgees Bpm had Giannis finals series as 8th best since 01 at +9

#1 is 17 Kd at +10.9

He mentioned one of Shaqs was +9.4 as well

[KGtabake]

Still can't believe that he did it all so young.
He can retire tomorrow and his resume is complete. Nothing left to accomplish.
Insanity. I just wish him health.

[BobbyPortisFan]

What does dfga have to do with paint protection...

Look at who was leading each of Lebron's teams in DFGAs per min. Birdman, Mozgov, Frye, Tristan, Nance, McGee/Dwight, Gasol. Look at the guys who lead the league every year in DFGAs: Gobert, Capela, Ayton, Lopez, Embiid, Nurkic, etc. See a trend?

DFGAs obviously aren't a perfect barometer for volume rim protection but it's not like we can't dig deeper and look at DFGAs < 6 ft from the basket. The fact that Lebron is consistently among the lowest per min shot contesters on his teams every single year is pretty damning evidence that he isn't the primary rim protector or even one of the secondary ones. That doesn't mean he isn't a very good help defender or even a good rim protector the few times per game he actually does do it (and for the record his official number of DFGAs per 36 @ < 6 ft in 2016 Finals was only 3.1 compared with 5.5 for Tristan Thompson and 6.3 for Love).

2016 Lebron-
D-RAPTOR-5.1
On/Off D-RAPTOR-9.6
Box-Score D-RAPTOR

Giannis
D-RAPTOR-3.2
On/Off D-RAPTOR-6.4
Box-Score D-RAPTOR-2.3

This is just different variations of one plus-minus metric, but if for a whole PS run it suggests 2016 Lebron>2021 Giannis, why is it absurd to suggest that Lebron for a FEW games in the Finals might have approached Giannis' impact on defense, especially when you account for him facing a more dangerous 2016 offense than the Suns?

Because giannis defended twice as many shots, spent more time protecting the paint and did more in terms of help defense?

You can't just look at matchup effiency...

[LukaTheGOAT]

Look at who was leading each of Lebron's teams in DFGAs per min. Birdman, Mozgov, Frye, Tristan, Nance, McGee/Dwight, Gasol. Look at the guys who lead the league every year in DFGAs: Gobert, Capela, Ayton, Lopez, Embiid, Nurkic, etc. See a trend?

DFGAs obviously aren't a perfect barometer for volume rim protection but it's not like we can't dig deeper and look at DFGAs < 6 ft from the basket. The fact that Lebron is consistently among the lowest per min shot contesters on his teams every single year is pretty damning evidence that he isn't the primary rim protector or even one of the secondary ones. That doesn't mean he isn't a very good help defender or even a good rim protector the few times per game he actually does do it (and for the record his official number of DFGAs per 36 @ < 6 ft in 2016 Finals was only 3.1 compared with 5.5 for Tristan Thompson and 6.3 for Love).

2016 Lebron-
D-RAPTOR-5.1
On/Off D-RAPTOR-9.6
Box-Score D-RAPTOR

Giannis
D-RAPTOR-3.2
On/Off D-RAPTOR-6.4
Box-Score D-RAPTOR-2.3

This is just different variations of one plus-minus metric, but if for a whole PS run it suggests 2016 Lebron>2021 Giannis, why is it absurd to suggest that Lebron for a FEW games in the Finals might have approached Giannis' impact on defense, especially when you account for him facing a more dangerous 2016 offense than the Suns?

Because giannis defended twice as many shots, spent more time protecting the paint and did more in terms of help defense?

You can't just look at matchup effiency...

Well I looked their defensive values for their whole PS matchups, that suggests Giannis in it of itself wasn't having outlier impact that Lebron couldn't obtain.

Nonetheless, I do wonder if the pace of play has to do with the drastic change in shots challenged.

[LA Bird]

By my count, Giannis was the 7th player to win FMVP as the only All Star on their team:

- Barry (75)
- Jordan (91, 98)
- Hakeem (94, 95)
- Duncan (03)
- Dirk (11)
- LeBron (16)
- Giannis (21)

[kayess]

By my count, Giannis was the 7th player to win FMVP as the only All Star on their team:

- Barry (75)
- Jordan (91, 98)
- Hakeem (94, 95)
- Duncan (03)
- Dirk (11)
- LeBron (16)
- Giannis (21)

Wow, Kyrie wasn't an all-star in '16?

Also: This list contains the famed "lone star" runs - '94 Hakeem, '03 Duncan, '11 Dirk - but we obviously know those teams were full of high level role players who stepped up in the playoffs. Giannis' run is quite similar actually; Jrue and Khris compare quite favorably to the best role players there

[falcolombardi]

defining the level of help a player had by whether his teammates were all stars thst specific year is very tricky and probably underates/overates some casts wildly