2020-21 RealGM All-Season POY & Other Awards Discussion Thread

[Odinn21]

These playoffs have been such a wild-run.
I know that Jokic's done enough to secure that #1 spot but after him, it's pretty hazy.

[No-more-rings]

These playoffs have been such a wild-run.
I know that Jokic's done enough to secure that #1 spot but after him, it's pretty hazy.

By injuries alone he has to be 1st. People talk about this year being an asterisk title, the same can be said for POY. Not saying Jokic isn’t deserving but the other top candidates didn’t hold up health wise (KD, Kawhi, Lebron, Giannis, AD). Curry is probably 2nd by default.

[Dutchball97]

It is going to be difficult with so many guys so close to each other. I think the likes of Curry, Embiid and Gobert especially could be anywhere from #2 to not in the top 5 at all.

[Doctor MJ]

Alright, nothing left but the finals now.

I've found that much of my thought continues to be focused on Rudy Gobert and what criteria I personally want to use for my ballot - which I cannot stress enough I'm not looking to force on anyone else.

The dilemma in a nutshell:

If I judge this in terms of additive accomplishment, then Gobert came into the playoffs with a significant lead over other guys who I see as better playoff performers...but who in this year didn't have the kind of deep runs that we'd typically use to elevate over someone like Gobert.

If on the other hand I choose a criteria where it's based on who actually played best this year from the perspective of being able to thrive in the playoffs, then these other players don't really have to "rise" past Gobert based on this year's playoff accomplishment.

Consider Draymond Green as a competitor for Gobert in DPOY.

While I think you're not necessarily crazy to have Green ahead of Gobert as your regular season DPOY choice, I had Gobert at #1, despite the fact that I see Green as the better playoff defender. I saw Green as the better playoff defender before, and I see him better now.

So should I be ranking Green at #1 for DPOY in my All-Season vote given that his play continues to convince me he's the better playoff defender, which generally matters most when all is said and done, despite the fact that in the regular season I thought Gobert literally had greater impact and Green didn't even technically get to the playoffs?

I'm interested in others thoughts on this, but I'll tell you that I'm leading more toward a more additive approach here, and this in general seems likely to keep Gobert pretty high on both my DPOY and POY lists.

A reminder, my regular season Top 5:
1. Jokic
2. Gobert
3. Curry
4. Embiid
5. Giannis

Truly, I'm not sure if this is going to change at all when we do the actual POY vote. If Giannis has a monstrous performance to beat the Suns I expect he'll rise, but other than that, I don't know if I can justify any movement between my current Top 4, nor justify putting others above that Top 4.

I will say that Giannis even being in the Top 5 still feels up in the air at this point. I'm a bit shook by the fact that coach Bud actually looks like he's successfully coaching his players when Giannis isn't out there. But I'm also not even sure who would move up past him. Kawhi was next on my list in the regular season, but his team kinda seemed better coached when he wasn't out there too. Paul is the sentimental choice, but I have a hard time arguing he's better than Dame or Luka among guards.

I feel like much of the actual action on my lists is happening in the lesser awards with COY being the most exciting one - and really seeming exciting every year with the chess match that playoff series have become.

I think at this point I'm locked in on my Top 2: Monty Williams, followed by Ty Lue. Monty was my pick after the regular season and he's felt pretty much pitch perfect through the playoffs too. I do think that Lue has really demonstrated himself to be a master tactician and I'd understand votes for him at #1, but if we look at how far Monty's elevated the Suns compared to Lue the Clippers, I think Monty's accomplished the bigger thing.

For the 3rd spot, I'm leaning Quinn Snyder, who was #2 for me in the regular season. Lue certainly won the coaching battle over him in their series, and hence it was easy to elevate him over Snyder, but I don't know if anyone else should really be seen as having accomplished more. Thibs was the regular season choice but I'll argue hard against him. McMillan is the guy I could see getting elevated above Snyder, but I'm wary of going too far based on exceeding playoff expectations. I kinda think both the Knicks and 76ers were going to get their weaknesses exposed by pretty much everyone.

[falcolombardi]

Alright, nothing left but the finals now.

I've found that much of my thought continues to be focused on Rudy Gobert and what criteria I personally want to use for my ballot - which I cannot stress enough I'm not looking to force on anyone else.

The dilemma in a nutshell:

If I judge this in terms of additive accomplishment, then Gobert came into the playoffs with a significant lead over other guys who I see as better playoff performers...but who in this year didn't have the kind of deep runs that we'd typically use to elevate over someone like Gobert.

If on the other hand I choose a criteria where it's based on who actually played best this year from the perspective of being able to thrive in the playoffs, then these other players don't really have to "rise" past Gobert based on this year's playoff accomplishment.

Consider Draymond Green as a competitor for Gobert in DPOY.

While I think you're not necessarily crazy to have Green ahead of Gobert as your regular season DPOY choice, I had Gobert at #1, despite the fact that I see Green as the better playoff defender. I saw Green as the better playoff defender before, and I see him better now.

So should I be ranking Green at #1 for DPOY in my All-Season vote given that his play continues to convince me he's the better playoff defender, which generally matters most when all is said and done, despite the fact that in the regular season I thought Gobert literally had greater impact and Green didn't even technically get to the playoffs?

I'm interested in others thoughts on this, but I'll tell you that I'm leading more toward a more additive approach here, and this in general seems likely to keep Gobert pretty high on both my DPOY and POY lists.

A reminder, my regular season Top 5:
1. Jokic
2. Gobert
3. Curry
4. Embiid
5. Giannis

Truly, I'm not sure if this is going to change at all when we do the actual POY vote. If Giannis has a monstrous performance to beat the Suns I expect he'll rise, but other than that, I don't know if I can justify any movement between my current Top 4, nor justify putting others above that Top 4.

I will say that Giannis even being in the Top 5 still feels up in the air at this point. I'm a bit shook by the fact that coach Bud actually looks like he's successfully coaching his players when Giannis isn't out there. But I'm also not even sure who would move up past him. Kawhi was next on my list in the regular season, but his team kinda seemed better coached when he wasn't out there too. Paul is the sentimental choice, but I have a hard time arguing he's better than Dame or Luka among guards.

I feel like much of the actual action on my lists is happening in the lesser awards with COY being the most exciting one - and really seeming exciting every year with the chess match that playoff series have become.

I think at this point I'm locked in on my Top 2: Monty Williams, followed by Ty Lue. Monty was my pick after the regular season and he's felt pretty much pitch perfect through the playoffs too. I do think that Lue has really demonstrated himself to be a master tactician and I'd understand votes for him at #1, but if we look at how far Monty's elevated the Suns compared to Lue the Clippers, I think Monty's accomplished the bigger thing.

For the 3rd spot, I'm leaning Quinn Snyder, who was #2 for me in the regular season. Lue certainly won the coaching battle over him in their series, and hence it was easy to elevate him over Snyder, but I don't know if anyone else should really be seen as having accomplished more. Thibs was the regular season choice but I'll argue hard against him. McMillan is the guy I could see getting elevated above Snyder, but I'm wary of going too far based on exceeding playoff expectations. I kinda think both the Knicks and 76ers were going to get their weaknesses exposed by pretty much everyone.

i think under your criteria you should go gobert, rewarding green for playoffs play seems wrong when he didnt actually have any play off play

if we start rewarding what we think would have happened in optimal circunstances and not what actuslly happened we would just give the trophy to brooklyn or say that jordan was the POY in 94 cause he would have likely been #1 again of he played

also, just because green has a proven record in playoffs doesnt guarantee he would have done it again in 2021

edit: somethingh i always try to think about is "if this player or team did lose in a earlier round, missed the playoffs, spend that year or round injured... would thst have made him look better down the read?

if we punish gobert relative to green for his playoffs. we are saying it would have been better for his rep to get injured amd miss playoffs which is a wrong way to go

any situation where playing worse/not playing would have helped a player perception is one where we are doing somethimgh wrong in our analysis imo

[Doctor MJ]

Alright, nothing left but the finals now.

I've found that much of my thought continues to be focused on Rudy Gobert and what criteria I personally want to use for my ballot - which I cannot stress enough I'm not looking to force on anyone else.

The dilemma in a nutshell:

If I judge this in terms of additive accomplishment, then Gobert came into the playoffs with a significant lead over other guys who I see as better playoff performers...but who in this year didn't have the kind of deep runs that we'd typically use to elevate over someone like Gobert.

If on the other hand I choose a criteria where it's based on who actually played best this year from the perspective of being able to thrive in the playoffs, then these other players don't really have to "rise" past Gobert based on this year's playoff accomplishment.

Consider Draymond Green as a competitor for Gobert in DPOY.

While I think you're not necessarily crazy to have Green ahead of Gobert as your regular season DPOY choice, I had Gobert at #1, despite the fact that I see Green as the better playoff defender. I saw Green as the better playoff defender before, and I see him better now.

So should I be ranking Green at #1 for DPOY in my All-Season vote given that his play continues to convince me he's the better playoff defender, which generally matters most when all is said and done, despite the fact that in the regular season I thought Gobert literally had greater impact and Green didn't even technically get to the playoffs?

I'm interested in others thoughts on this, but I'll tell you that I'm leading more toward a more additive approach here, and this in general seems likely to keep Gobert pretty high on both my DPOY and POY lists.

A reminder, my regular season Top 5:
1. Jokic
2. Gobert
3. Curry
4. Embiid
5. Giannis

Truly, I'm not sure if this is going to change at all when we do the actual POY vote. If Giannis has a monstrous performance to beat the Suns I expect he'll rise, but other than that, I don't know if I can justify any movement between my current Top 4, nor justify putting others above that Top 4.

I will say that Giannis even being in the Top 5 still feels up in the air at this point. I'm a bit shook by the fact that coach Bud actually looks like he's successfully coaching his players when Giannis isn't out there. But I'm also not even sure who would move up past him. Kawhi was next on my list in the regular season, but his team kinda seemed better coached when he wasn't out there too. Paul is the sentimental choice, but I have a hard time arguing he's better than Dame or Luka among guards.

I feel like much of the actual action on my lists is happening in the lesser awards with COY being the most exciting one - and really seeming exciting every year with the chess match that playoff series have become.

I think at this point I'm locked in on my Top 2: Monty Williams, followed by Ty Lue. Monty was my pick after the regular season and he's felt pretty much pitch perfect through the playoffs too. I do think that Lue has really demonstrated himself to be a master tactician and I'd understand votes for him at #1, but if we look at how far Monty's elevated the Suns compared to Lue the Clippers, I think Monty's accomplished the bigger thing.

For the 3rd spot, I'm leaning Quinn Snyder, who was #2 for me in the regular season. Lue certainly won the coaching battle over him in their series, and hence it was easy to elevate him over Snyder, but I don't know if anyone else should really be seen as having accomplished more. Thibs was the regular season choice but I'll argue hard against him. McMillan is the guy I could see getting elevated above Snyder, but I'm wary of going too far based on exceeding playoff expectations. I kinda think both the Knicks and 76ers were going to get their weaknesses exposed by pretty much everyone.

i think under your criteria you should go gobert, rewarding green for playoffs play seems wrong when he didnt actually have any play off play

if we start rewarding what we think would have happened in optimal circunstances and not what actuslly happened we would just give the trophy to brooklyn or say that jordan was the POY in 94 cause he would have likely been #1 again of he played

also, just because green has a proven record in playoffs doesnt guarantee he would have done it again in 2021

edit: somethingh i always try to think about is "if this player or team did lose in a earlier round, missed the playoffs, spend that year or round injured... would thst have made him look better down the read?

for example, imagine lebron retired after 2021 amd people compared how jordan retired winning a ring with lebron retiring losing in first round as a feather in mj cap

if someone did that then that means they would prefer if lebron retired after 2020 ring "on top"that continúe trying to win more. inherently prefering not trying that trying and losing (as anti competitive as it gets )

why do i bring this hypothetical? because if we punish gobert relative to green for his playoffs. we are saying it would have been better for his rep to get injured amd miss playoffs which is a wrong way to go

any situation where playing worse/not playing would have helped a player perception is one where we are doing somethimgh wrong in our analysis imo

Great points and I ask similar questions. I'm very reluctant to let early elimination actually become a positive in a comparison.

[falcolombardi]

if giannis plays and does well in the finals

would it be enough to beat jokic for poy?

[falcolombardi]

if giannis plays and does well in the finals

would it be enough to beat jokic for poy?

[Doctor MJ]

if giannis plays and does well in the finals

would it be enough to beat jokic for poy?

Yes to the bold. Now exactly what that threshold is, I can't tell you ahead of time.

[Fadeaway_J]

Bobby Portis switching onto CP3 huh?

[Outside]

Here's where I'm at after the conference finals.

POY - no change

1. Jokic
2. Giannis
3. Curry
4. Embiid
5. What feels like a 14-way tie

My only change is that Giannis has closed the gap on Jokic, but the gap is still there. It's still possible for him to pass Jokic with a terrific finals.

My previous write-up:

Spoiler:

Jokic is still clearly my number one, but the gap I had between him and the field has closed significantly. Jokic put up really good box score stats in his playoff run, but his defense was not good, and Ayton was able to somewhat limit him. It's not Jokic's fault that half his team was hurt and he was playing with scrubs at both guard spots against a team with excellent guards, but despite the counting stats, I still came away from the Phoenix series with too much of a meh feeling. I'm trying hard to stick with my resolve that the RS counts for a lot and that he dominated the RS from an MVP standpoint.

We'll see about Giannis. He's the only one I can see that has a chance to overtake Jokic. He wasn't off to a great PS start, but he closed really well against the Nets. He had an under-the-radar RS that means he wasn't that far behind Jokic to begin with.

Curry was unbelievably good this season. The on/off numbers are staggering. Once Wiseman and Oubre were hurt and the team was no longer in development mode (Wiseman) or don't-want-to-hurt-your-ego mode (Oubre), they went for wins, Curry went nuclear, and they shoulda coulda woulda made the playoffs. I watched him game after game, and Curry was special. I always considered him among the best ceiling raisers ever for a championship-level team but didn't think he was that good of a floor raiser for a lousy team, but this season proved me wrong on that count.

Embiid is really good on both ends and has the impact stats to back that up. But he missed too many games, he got hurt again in the playoffs, and he faded late in games too often. He's just not durable. His PS production was good, but his efficiency was down significantly. He was much less impactful defensively. Some of that is due to playing with a knee injury, and some to the general team dysfunction, but this was not that great of a PS for him.

As for the fifth spot, I suppose if push comes to shove, I'd pick Lillard. Impact stats say this should be Gobert, but I can't get over what I saw in the Clippers series, which is that preventing the opponent from shooting layups is only so much of a benefit when they're raining threes on you. It's not Gobert's fault that they were raining threes, but he couldn't do anything about it either. And his lack of offensive game, just hoping beyond hope each game that he could make himself useful on that end, that hurts his case. I really liked Utah and wanted them to win, and it's too bad Conley was out and Mitchell was still hurt, but everybody's dealing with something. Gobert just wasn't close to being the most important player in the series.

Durant was awesome, but the RS counts, and he only played 35 games. Kawhi missed too many games, and like Doctor MJ said, it doesn't look good for Kawhi that the Clippers in general and Paul George in particular actually look better with him out. James Harden was great but missed too many games. Luka was great but not as good when you do a deep dive, and he faded in most PS games. Everyone else has issues.

DPOY - no change

1. Rudy Gobert
2. Draymond Green
3. Ben Simmons
4. Joel Embiid
5. Deandre Ayton

The top four are here based on the RS, Ayton based on the PS. Ayton looking really good, but I don't see any way for him to dislodge those above him. Since those above him are all out, this is likely set.

MIP - no change

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Julius Randle
3. Michael Porter, Jr.
4. Zion Williamson
5. Andrew Wiggins

Ayton continues to benefit from a strong PS, and I'm feeling even better about that pick. I don't think Wiggins has been mentioned much, but he should be recognized for becoming a very good defender after having a reputation as someone who didn't have effort or focus on that end.

COY - no change

1. Monty Williams
2. Nate McMillan
3. Steve Nash
4. Taylor Jenkins
5. Quin Snyder

This feels set at this point. Lue deserves an HM, which I hadn't given him previously. I can't bring myself to include Thibodeau after their lousy showing in the PS.

EOY - no change

1. Sean Marks
2. James Jones
3. Travis Schlenk

This one is set. No one else stands out to me.

[Colbinii]

MIP - no change

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Julius Randle
3. Michael Porter, Jr.
4. Zion Williamson
5. Andrew Wiggins

Ayton continues to benefit from a strong PS, and I'm feeling even better about that pick. I don't think Wiggins has been mentioned much, but he should be recognized for becoming a very good defender after having a reputation as someone who didn't have effort or focus on that end.

COY - no change

1. Monty Williams
2. Nate McMillan
3. Steve Nash
4. Taylor Jenkins
5. Quin Snyder

This feels set at this point. Lue deserves an HM, which I hadn't given him previously. I can't bring myself to include Thibodeau after their lousy showing in the PS.

I'm confused here for multiple reasons.

1) Did any of these players actually improve more than someone like Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic? Both of these guys went from top-10 NBA Players to strong MVP Candidates.

It's pretty blasphemous, if you ask me, to think someone like Andrew Wiggins improved more than those guys, or that the marginal increase in Wiggins game even approached the difficulty of what it takes to become an MVP candidate. It's more difficult to improve from top 10 level to top 3 level than it is to go from top 250 player to top 150 player.

2. You have Julius Randle here, yet when you punish Thibs for the post-season you don't do the same for Randle? Randles real improvement this season was an unsustainable jump shot when defenders were close, which completely faded in the post-season. Did Randle truly improve or did he simply have a hot stretch?

Regarding Post-season, did you watch MPJ? He couldn't hit water if he walked west through California...

[Outside]

Spoiler:

MIP - no change

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Julius Randle
3. Michael Porter, Jr.
4. Zion Williamson
5. Andrew Wiggins

Ayton continues to benefit from a strong PS, and I'm feeling even better about that pick. I don't think Wiggins has been mentioned much, but he should be recognized for becoming a very good defender after having a reputation as someone who didn't have effort or focus on that end.

COY - no change

1. Monty Williams
2. Nate McMillan
3. Steve Nash
4. Taylor Jenkins
5. Quin Snyder

This feels set at this point. Lue deserves an HM, which I hadn't given him previously. I can't bring myself to include Thibodeau after their lousy showing in the PS.

I'm confused here for multiple reasons.

1) Did any of these players actually improve more than someone like Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic? Both of these guys went from top-10 NBA Players to strong MVP Candidates.

That's a fair way to look at it. I would have no objection to someone putting Jokic in particular on their MIP ballot, and I could see a case for Embiid. But no, I don't think either of them improved as dramatically as the guys I listed.

It's pretty blasphemous, if you ask me, to think someone like Andrew Wiggins improved more than those guys, or that the marginal increase in Wiggins game even approached the difficulty of what it takes to become an MVP candidate. It's more difficult to improve from top 10 level to top 3 level than it is to go from top 250 player to top 150 player.

I understand the argument, but as for your example, jumping 100 spots is more noteworthy to me that jumping seven spots when it comes to MIP. I suppose I take a more traditional approach to MIP, which is to acknowledge those who made a notable jump from the middle of the pack. I think it's good to have MIP acknowledge those players rather than make it yet another award to acknowledge elite players. Elite players get enough acknowledgment already with MVP, All-NBA, and All-Star.

I get that Andrew Wiggins is a reach, but I put him fifth, and I gave him zero consideration for the top spot. It's a pretty harmless inclusion. Being a Warriors fan, I saw what he did this season, and he's gone from an ineffective and disinterested defender in Minnesota to the Warriors' top perimeter defender. He got the toughest assignment every game, and he did a really good job against the best wings in the league. I'm sure if I were a fan of another team, I could come up with another player I could make a similar argument for, and I have no problem with someone making that argument.

2. You have Julius Randle here, yet when you punish Thibs for the post-season you don't do the same for Randle? Randles real improvement this season was an unsustainable jump shot when defenders were close, which completely faded in the post-season. Did Randle truly improve or did he simply have a hot stretch?

Not that I watched many Knick games, but in my estimation, Randle truly improved. First off, he went from contributor to team anchor, and his team made a huge leap in success with him as the anchor. (And just to clarify, I don't consider the best player on a team as automatically an anchor. An anchor is someone you structure the way a team plays around, and the expectations and responsibilities for that role are more than for someone who happens to be the best player statistically.)

As for punishing Thibs vs Randle for PS performance, that's a fair observation, but I'll make an argument for my decision for both. In this case, I think a significant portion of Randle's poor series against the Hawks can be attributed to Thibs' failure as a coach. Thibs designed the team for RS success around Randle, so of course when you get to the PS, an opponent is going to attempt to disrupt that. I expect a good coach to adjust as well, but Thibs' counters were nonexistent or ineffective. It felt like he was going with what got him there, and that's what he was gonna do no matter what, and that's not what a quality coach should do. Atlanta was a tough matchup for them, but the Hawks increasingly gained the advantage as the series went along, especially defensively, and Thibs had nothing.

As for punishing Randle for his poor PS performance, I did. If Randle did well against the Hawks, I likely would've had him first in MIP.

Regarding Post-season, did you watch MPJ? He couldn't hit water if he walked west through California...

He shot well in six games against Portland (.538 FG, .415 3P, .909 FT, .666 TS). That fell off a cliff against Phoenix (.382 FG, .375 3P, .700 FT, .513 TS), but my understanding is that he had some sort of back issue that he was playing through. He was clearly hampered.

[Texas Chuck]

I understand the argument, but as for your example, jumping 100 spots is more noteworthy to me that jumping seven spots when it comes to MIP. I suppose I take a more traditional approach to MIP, which is to acknowledge those who made a notable jump from the middle of the pack. I think it's good to have MIP acknowledge those players rather than make it yet another award to acknowledge elite players. Elite players get enough acknowledgment already with MVP, All-NBA, and All-Star.

This is a great point. Last year I was pushing Luka for MIP because I'm convinced no player improved more from the previous year to last year. But Luka was already getting recognized with an all-NBA spot. I believe strongly that the jump from top 40-50 player like he was a rookie to top 10 player and true superstar is the hardest to make, but your point about having an award specifically to honor those other guys who really grow into a solid contributor is valid.

Part of why I was making my case for Bridges earlier itt that had people really upset. His leap was a big part of the Suns team success as his role was crucial. And while Ayton has certainly been the guy in the spotlight these playoffs I thought in the RS Bridges was so vital for them too.

Obviously Mikal shouldn't win and I jumped the shark a bit, but I like the idea of this award not being given to the latest breakout superstar each year even if technically they did improve the most.

[bondom34]

Not really sure if it was a matter of situation or not (though that's probably more of MIP in a lot of cases than it seems anyway), but just to throw out a name Capela might be a guy who is in some consideration for top 5 I think. Always thought of him as a solid starter, but really held down the Hawks defense on a team that I'm not sure has many strong defenders.

[Outside]

I understand the argument, but as for your example, jumping 100 spots is more noteworthy to me that jumping seven spots when it comes to MIP. I suppose I take a more traditional approach to MIP, which is to acknowledge those who made a notable jump from the middle of the pack. I think it's good to have MIP acknowledge those players rather than make it yet another award to acknowledge elite players. Elite players get enough acknowledgment already with MVP, All-NBA, and All-Star.

This is a great point. Last year I was pushing Luka for MIP because I'm convinced no player improved more from the previous year to last year. But Luka was already getting recognized with an all-NBA spot. I believe strongly that the jump from top 40-50 player like he was a rookie to top 10 player and true superstar is the hardest to make, but your point about having an award specifically to honor those other guys who really grow into a solid contributor is valid.

Part of why I was making my case for Bridges earlier itt that had people really upset. His leap was a big part of the Suns team success as his role was crucial. And while Ayton has certainly been the guy in the spotlight these playoffs I thought in the RS Bridges was so vital for them too.

Obviously Mikal shouldn't win and I jumped the shark a bit, but I like the idea of this award not being given to the latest breakout superstar each year even if technically they did improve the most.

I don't have a problem with recognizing Bridges somewhere for MIP. He certainly did make an impactful leap, and while he hasn't been quite as good in the PS, he's still been good. One factor in Phoenix performing as well as they have is their rotation players not shrinking in the moment, especially those like Bridges who previously had zero playoff experience.

I also have a soft spot for Bridges because the son of a good friend played on a travel team with him in Philly, and the son liked Bridges a lot and said he is a good guy. If I didn't have Wiggins in the fifth spot, I'd put Bridges there.

I'll also point out that I did recognize Zion for MIP, so it's not as if I'm totally averse to recognizing top players, though I'd put Zion as a tier below elite players. But he was multiple tiers below elite last season, so that's worth recognizing to me.

[Doctor MJ]

MIP - no change

1. Deandre Ayton
2. Julius Randle
3. Michael Porter, Jr.
4. Zion Williamson
5. Andrew Wiggins

Ayton continues to benefit from a strong PS, and I'm feeling even better about that pick. I don't think Wiggins has been mentioned much, but he should be recognized for becoming a very good defender after having a reputation as someone who didn't have effort or focus on that end.

COY - no change

1. Monty Williams
2. Nate McMillan
3. Steve Nash
4. Taylor Jenkins
5. Quin Snyder

This feels set at this point. Lue deserves an HM, which I hadn't given him previously. I can't bring myself to include Thibodeau after their lousy showing in the PS.

I'm confused here for multiple reasons.

1) Did any of these players actually improve more than someone like Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic? Both of these guys went from top-10 NBA Players to strong MVP Candidates.

It's pretty blasphemous, if you ask me, to think someone like Andrew Wiggins improved more than those guys, or that the marginal increase in Wiggins game even approached the difficulty of what it takes to become an MVP candidate. It's more difficult to improve from top 10 level to top 3 level than it is to go from top 250 player to top 150 player.

2. You have Julius Randle here, yet when you punish Thibs for the post-season you don't do the same for Randle? Randles real improvement this season was an unsustainable jump shot when defenders were close, which completely faded in the post-season. Did Randle truly improve or did he simply have a hot stretch?

Regarding Post-season, did you watch MPJ? He couldn't hit water if he walked west through California...

So I wanted to chime in on this, but I'll also acknowledge that Outside brought up a point that I think is important:

The NBA has minor awards like MIP & 6MOY to shine a spotlight on someone who isn't already getting that kind of shine.

You're free to ignore that and I'm not going to say you're at all wrong, but here's where I generally draw the distinction:

If a guy was already getting major accolades the previous season, he's essentially no longer eligible for the MIP in my book because the MIP will be wasted on him.

You can go a step further and say no one who got major accolades THIS season is eligible, but realistically the NBA's version of these awards are voted upon simultaneously and so trying to eliminate these players amounts to guessing who will win the awards while you're casting the vote. I don't think that's a reasonable thing to ask voters to do.

To be clear, I'm not saying "force voters to consider that guy even if they don't want to", but I do think award voting is most meaningful when it's clear to all who is eligible.

What I'll also say is that the NBA's MIP award has been inconsistent with regard to this in a specific way. No one was suggesting that Julius Randle shouldn't be considered for MIP because he was already named all-star this year - so clearly, this isn't something the NBA voters forbid. But they do have a tendency to ignore guys like Kevin Durant giving the reasoning of them being young guys who are "supposed to get better".

People should feel free to follow suit here with their votes, but it does need to be clear to folks that the RealGM voting base by and large hasn't followed suit, having twice given our MIP to 2nd year players (Luka last year, Rudy Gobert in '14-15).

So all this to say I don't really want to debate Jokic or Embiid in MIP. Feel free to vote for them if you'd like, but I won't be (for this award).

On the other hand, I will be thinking about Zion in my MIP race - though he's not as compelling as a candidate as Luka was last year.
On to other points:

I'm with you about Randle. To me the big difference in his performance this year came from taking on a heliocentric role, and while that let us see him showcase different skills than we'd seen before, it wasn't necessarily clear cut how much of this was about actual improvement. Moreover, to me the bigger question was how this would scale against playoff competition. Giving a C-lister permission to helio seems like kind of the lazy, unimaginative way to give you mediocre offense in the regular season with the possibility for something considerably softer in the playoffs.

And that sure seemed to be what we saw. If I'm running the Knicks, I would frankly try to change my offense pretty dramatically next year unless I had very specific targets for improvement that make me think Randle is still just getting warmed up.

It's possible that Randle will be on my (top 3) MIP ballot, but I'm not sure he will.

Re: MPJ. While there's no doubt that Porter's playoff performance was less impressive than in the regular season - and this certainly hurts his case for any accolade - my best guess is that this really wasn't about Porter getting exposed against playoff defense. I think there 2 clear factors that aren't about this: 1) Jokic effectively playing more score-first than in the regular season for various reasons and 2) Porter clearly having health issues for at least part of the playoff run.

I think one way to look at Porter's improvement is like this:

Consider what you knew about Porter 12 months ago.

Prior to the Bubble, Porter was playing about 13 MPG and had a variety of DNPs.

By the end of this regular season Porter was averaging 20+ PPG on insane efficiency, and he finished the year 1st on the team in raw +/- ahead of Jokic.

To me that screams "potential star improving very fast", which to me is really what the award is about. So to me, he should be someone everyone thinks is worthy as an MIP candidate even if you end up signing with others ahead of him.

[Colbinii]

Not really sure if it was a matter of situation or not (though that's probably more of MIP in a lot of cases than it seems anyway), but just to throw out a name Capela might be a guy who is in some consideration for top 5 I think. Always thought of him as a solid starter, but really held down the Hawks defense on a team that I'm not sure has many strong defenders.

I actually don't think Capella improved all that much, rather we were just all underestimating him. I too had him as a top 15-20 Center and he is clearly a teir ahead of that.

[bondom34]

Not really sure if it was a matter of situation or not (though that's probably more of MIP in a lot of cases than it seems anyway), but just to throw out a name Capela might be a guy who is in some consideration for top 5 I think. Always thought of him as a solid starter, but really held down the Hawks defense on a team that I'm not sure has many strong defenders.

I actually don't think Capella improved all that much, rather we were just all underestimating him. I too had him as a top 15-20 Center and he is clearly a teir ahead of that.

Guess it sort of matters what we use to constitute improvement as well. We probably thought of him as around the same type of player before the season, and I'm seeing (understandably) some Ayton mentions which I can't argue against. At the same time I'm not sure I really thought there was much a gap if any between them before the season, might have leaned Capela but I still think I do now.

[Doctor MJ]

Okay, I'm feeling motivated to try to assemble my lists so I'm going to use that process to talk out my thoughts here.

POY - I've already spoken on this, but just to list out my regular season list again:

Jokic
Gobert
Curry
Embiid
Giannis

Removing Giannis from the equation because he's still playing, I'm having a hard time justifying rearranging the top 4 in the wake of the post-season, and yeah, that means I have Gobert high on my list.

I'm expecting this is not going to be the norm for most people, and frankly it feels weird to me too. The case is straight forward though:

If you just look at impact data, Gobert had serious case for MVP in the regular season. His playoff performance leaves a bitter taste in the mouth, but on what basis am I lowering him over those not even playing?

OPOY

I think I'm pretty set on Jokic, Steph & Dame, with the debate for the top spot being between Jokic & Steph.

So we're clear on how I see Steph: I do think he was the best offensive player and most valuable player in the league during that awesome burst to close out the year, but he didn't do that all season.

DPOY

Gobert, Green & Giannis are the most likely top 3. Similar debate with Gobert here. My clear choice for DPOY in the regular season, am I really going to give Green the nod as the superior playoff performer when they lost in the play-in? I don't think I will.

Giannis on the other hand, I'll be chewing on.

ROY

LaMelo, Edwards & Haliburton in that order I think.

MIP

Ah, now here we are.

I talked above about Randle. #2 in NBA voting is Grant who is just not my kind of MIP guy - same type of fool's gold concerns, and there are other guys on NBA's list have similar warning signs.

3rd on that list is Porter who I also talked about above, and who was my regular season MIP. The door opened a bit for others to get by him with the playoffs, so it's likely just a question of whether anyone does.

I liked what I saw from Jaylen Brown this year, but the way the season ended makes it hard to champion him all that hard.

Zion? I can't deny he's a legit candidate. I mean he went from not being an all-star, to being all-star, while putting up mind-blowing stats all year long. It's frustrating though when the team with Zion got worse this year instead of better. I mean, the team did lose Jrue Holiday so I don't want to overreact, but still, I think Zion's still in the process of turning a corner.

I'll also say that in comparison to Porter, it's astonishing to think about how each was viewed last season when Zion was the chosen one and Porter was a bench guy.

I think Capela deserves a shout out. Best year of his career. Improvement isn't as stark as some though.

I think SGA had a great case if he'd kept playing.

What about those Suns? Well, it's interesting. Coming into the playoffs Bridges was the guy I'd have championed, but now I feel a serious lean toward Ayton. The funny thing is that it's really hard for me to find stats that back this feeling, in part because Ayton already looked good by the box score last year.

Never the less, last year Ayton to me seemed much more of a "young stats" guy who wasn't really impacting, and now he feels like an inescapable problem for every team that faces him.

One more shout out: Seth Curry. Regular season-wise it's hard to really get behind him, and this playoff performance was a new level. Arguably the 2nd best player in the playoffs for the 76ers. That's not nothing for a guy who just keeps rising gradually up the ranks.

Feels to me at this point that it's going to be between Porter and Ayton for me, but Zion's looming in the back of my mind.

6MOY

Been leaning toward Ingles all year, still am. Clarkson remains a reasonable candidate but less so than his Jazz teammate.

Tim Hardaway Jr. qualifies and really has earned some love with his Maverick resurgence.

Thaddeus Young had an intriguingly effective year in the role.

COY

I think Monty Williams has basically had a perfect year of coaching. There are still games to be played and it's within the realm of possibility that Monty will do something so crazy I'll have to reconsider, but for now, this award feels like it's his.

Ty Lue had a hell of a playoffs and arguably got the biggest reputation benefit from this season, next on my list.

Quinn Snyder was 2nd on my regular season ballot after Monty and I think he'll still end up in the top 3. Nate McMillan is the guy who has come to challenge him, but I don't want to knock Monty too hard for that lightning-in-a-bottle run the Clippers did. Snyder's Gobert system isn't fool proof, but it could have won the Jazz the title if their backcourt had stayed healthy.

EOY

The 3 guys on my mind are Sean Marks of Brooklyn, Travis Schlenk of Atlanta, and James Jones of Phoenix.

At the end of the regular season I'd have said Marks, and that makes me feel pretty silly picking anyone else now. With the acquisition of Harden and the harmony with which we've seen the new Big 3 and their supporting cast play, he's assembled the team that most thought was the best team in the league before injuries took them down.

It's true of course that the superstars are the ones with the power here and we shouldn't go overboard at the concept of a superteam as far as it relates to GM evaluation now that it's less a question of "If?" and more a question of "Where?". Nevertheless, it had to be on some GM's team and GM's are the ones eligible for this award so why not pick the guy who won out?

Of course I say this also as someone who went hard against Griffin for EOY when LeBron came to Cleveland. In that case I just felt this wasn't a situation where the GM was what mattered, in part because "Cav management" was clearly such a negative in LeBron's mind that he wouldn't sign a long deal there.

With Marks, while he's obviously not in a small market, he pulled an upset getting the players to come to "that other New York team", and he's done so by making a bunch of small savvy moves along the way too.

With Schlenk, this was a guy not on my mind at all until the Philly upset if I'm honest. With that victory though it really reframed things for me. While this award this year is not about the 2018 draft, the idea of giving this award to a guy who made a trade to build his roster around Not-Luka seemed crazy until I actually started viewing the Hawks as a serious contender.

I'm still not sure I can make myself pick Schlenk over Marks because the upside of his moves just isn't on the same scale. But dang if he didn't make great moves this year - Capela, Bogdanovic, McMillan. He feels to me like a guy who perhaps decided to go with Trae because he had a clear vision for how to build around a traditionally-sized point guard - and I recall that he was with Golden State and advocated for the drafting of Draymond Green for a roster being built around Steph Curry.

I look over by contrast at Dallas and I see unicorn struggles. They know Luka is really, really good, but they're still trying to figure out what the team around him should actually look like, and after a couple of pretty dang understandable misses, poof, they lost their jobs.

To attribute all of Schlenk's relative success to Dallas to this point to his GMing calculus is not realistic, but you can't deny that he's brought the Hawks more long-term excitement than I can ever remember them having by building smart around a player he traded for against prevailing wisdom. It's pretty bad ass.

I'm less high on James Jones than others are. I think he's done well and I have no problem putting him in consideration, but he's building on the back of a young core that was there before he took charge. He looks like a genius for adding CP3 & Crowder this year, and those were good moves...but this wasn't a case of him having a drastically different sense of these players than everyone else. These are the type of players that everyone already knows can be a help to great teams, but they aren't going to transform fundamentally bad teams into champions.