RealGM Top 100 #4

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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#261 » by JordansBulls » Thu Jul 7, 2011 12:23 am

colts18 wrote:I don't get why anyone would have Bird ahead of Shaq. Literally makes no sense.

More seasons: 19-13
More prime seasons: 15-12
Better Prime: Shaq was 30-15 for 3 straight playoffs
Longer Peak: 12 years-10 years
All-star games: 15-12
All-NBA teams: 15-10 (Shaq had harder competition)
Better Peak: Shaq 2000-2002>Bird 84-86
Better PER and WS
More rings: 4 to 3
Better defender
-Shaq had 5 straight PER titles, and 10 FG% titles
Playoffs:
-Shaq's Pts, rebs, asts went up
-Bird's numbers declined in the playoffs
This is what Shaq did in the playoffs from 98-03:
31-10-3
27-12-2
31-15-3
30-15-3
29-13-3
27-15-4


If you just put up Shaq's first 13 seasons vs. Bird, it's no comparison.

Shaq averaged 26-12-3, 3 blks, 58 FG%, Better PER, better WS. In the playoffs he averaged 27-13-3.

I don't think anyone in history can compare to Shaq's 98-03 6 year prime other than MJ and Kareem.


This will interesting in the next thread as I think that is when we will start to see Shaq and Bird get votes. I don't think anyone thus far has voted for Shaq or Bird in this thread yet.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#262 » by ThaRegul8r » Thu Jul 7, 2011 12:26 am

I was about to say something, but it will seem as dogpiling if I did so now after the last point. So I'll address the points from a devil's advocate position, as I like discussion, and want to encourage thought on the matter.

MacGill wrote:To me, Wilt was a Shaq (body type) in his era but played more like a (finesse type of game if you will) with that body than what we witnessed from Shaq. Don't get me wrong, he absolutely dominated, and I truly do not mean any disrespect with the above, but Shaq's style to me is one of the few that you could place in any era, with no modern medicine or training, and the same result as we witnessed would happen. Hell even 50 years from now I am sure this could be true.

In every thing I have read/watched rarely did I see Wilt do what Shaq did and this is more on the offensive end of course with a killer instint. When Shaq first came into the league, one could say just from a physical stand point, it was the second coming of Wilt. Where I credit Shaq is that from day one he used his tremendous size to the best of his ability and where it made his opponents the weakest. He did not care if it was pretty nor what people thought and had that Alpha Dog attitude you would want from the most dominate player in the league.


Wilt himself has admitted his lack of killer instinct:

“I’m just not naturally competitive and aggressive. I don’t have a killer instinct.”
(Wilt Chamberlain, Wilt: Just Like Any Other 7-Foot Black Millionaire Who Lives Next Door [New York: Macmillan, 1973], p. 187)

Bill Bradley said:

He never developed the killer instinct necessary for team victory. In his rookie year he was constantly battered, kneed, elbowed, tripped, and gouged. He did not hit back. Instead, he threatened retirement. In his duels with Bill Russell he patted him on the behind when Russell made a good play, showing what Wilt thought was magnanimity. It was as if he were paralyzed within his enormous body, unwilling to strike out for fear of injuring an opponent or demeaning himself. Above all, Wilt, sensitive to being called a bully, made sure he never took unfair advantage. If someone said Wilt could only score by dunking, he retaliated by taking fall-away jumpers. If critics questioned his passing ability, he stopped shooting and rolled up the assists. He seemed driven to be the best, and on everyone else’s terms.
(Bill Bradley, Life on the Run [New York: Quadrangle/The New York Times Book Co, 1976], pp. 158-59)

Wilt said in a 1993 interview with Roy Firestone that that was one thing Shaq had that he did not, and, because of that, had the potential to be better than he was:

Roy Firestone: Shaq. They are saying he’s the new Wilt. That he may be, before it’s over, greater than Wilt.

Wilt Chamberlain: He is worthy of all the accolades.

Firestone: Okay.

Chamberlain: And he sh—

Firestone (interrupting): So you think he’s going to be another Wilt—maybe better than you.

Chamberlain: Maybe, yeah. I think, I think—

Firestone (interrupting): You do?

Chamberlain: Yeah, ’cause he’s already doin’ some things that I’ve never done. First of all—

Firestone: Wait a minute!

Chamberlain: Yeah.

Firestone: Wait a minute, I, I gotta stop you here, Wilt, hold the phone here. You’re tellin’ me—Wilt Chamberlain is tellin’ me—that he thinks someone is gonna be better than he is,

Chamberlain: Mmm. (nods)

Firestone: Right now you think that he’s got all the potential to be better than you.

Chamberlain: Yeah.

Firestone: You’re saying that?

Chamberlain: Yeah. I’m sayin’ that because he already has a drive in an area that I didn’t have.

Firestone: Which is?

Chamberlain: Goin’ to the basket. Uh, durin’ my career—and mainly in my early days when I was scorin’ all those points—I-I had this thing in my head that I wanted to show people I was a complete basketball player. Y’ understand? And by doing that I developed the fadeaway jump shot, and the fingerroll and the hook shot, and all the tools that on offense basketball players had. When maybe... Wilt Chamberlain should’ve been goin’ to the basket and breaking guys’ hands off, y’ understand? And that would’ve made me... even more devastating. He’s doin’ that already.

Firestone: Maybe I should read something else that what you’re saying. Maybe this is a thin way of saying—a thinly-veiled way of saying—that Shaq isn’t a complete player.

Chamberlain: Well of course that, but the man’s only twenty, twenty years old.


MacGill wrote:The seperation for him over Wilt to me are as follows, above what has already been posted:

1) Unlike Wilt, Shaq for most of his prime career had to share the ball with dominant wing players so the offence never went through him as maybe as much as it should have.


Though, conversely, those wing players could counteract his free throw shooting weakness.

MacGill wrote:2) Hack-a-Shaq - I have read posts where people seem to just brush this fact off but need to revisit the frequency and how hard some of the many intention fouls on Shaq were.


Dipper can address this, as I don't have the necessary material with me at the moment.

MacGill wrote:3) I will concede that Wilt was the better rebounder/defender but it is not like Shaq was subpar here. He also played a different game then Wilt and weighed probably about 50 pounds more than Wilt in prime however 13 seasons of 20/10 cannot just be swept under the rug.


I've always found it curious that people refer to the string of 13 consecutive 20/10 seasons in favor of Shaq, yet I have never heard it mentioned prior to Shaq obtaining the record. I doubt anyone even knows who had the old record before Shaq claimed it. But Wilt and Kareem shared the old record of 12, yet I never heard it mentioned in their favor. But, yes, Shaq has one more consecutive 20/10 season than Wilt did.

MacGill wrote:4) His raised his game in the post season when to all athletes, not us judging, it mattered the most. There is a reason why we have the saying 'the regular season is out the window'. He was also the main force behind a 3-peat which gets a big nod from me in doing.


This is the prime argument for Shaq. Though I've never heard a rebuttal to the following counterargument:

ThaRegul8r wrote:Playoff Competition. Of Chamberlain’s 160 playoff games, 49 came against Bill Russell (30.6%). 30 percent of Chamberlain’s games were against the greatest defensive center of all time. Chamberlain played 62 playoff games after 1969, meaning than while Russell was in the league, Chamberlain played 98 postseason games, meaning exactly half of them were against the greatest defensive center of all time. Chamberlain went through Russell and Thurmond to win his first title in 1967, and went through Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Jerry Lucas to win in 1972. During the Lakers’ three-peat, O’Neal went through Rik Smits in 2000, a 35-year old Dikembe Mutombo in 2001, and Todd MacCulloch, Jason Collins and Aaron Williams in 2002.

Wilt faced Russell in the playoffs in 1960 (ECF), 1962 (ECF), 1964 (Finals), 1965 (ECF), 1966 (ECF), 1967 (ECF), 1968 (Finals), and 1969 (Finals), Willis Reed in 1968 (EC Semifinals), 1970 (Finals), and 1973 (Finals), Jerry Lucas in 1972 (Finals), Nate Thurmond in 1967 (Finals), 1969 (Western Conference Semifinals), and 1973 (WCF), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1971 (WCF), 1972 (WCF).

EVERY YEAR WILT WAS FACING A HALL OF FAME CENTER AND TOP 50 PLAYER OF ALL TIME IN THE PLAYOFFS. Wilt played 49 games against Russell, 17 against Willis Reed, 17 against Nate Thurmond, 11 against Kareem, and five against Jerry Lucas. 99 of his 160 playoff games (61.9%).

In 1994, O’Neal was swept by Indiana and Rik Smits (15.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.05 bpg, .534 FG%) in the first round. Orlando was 50-32 and Indiana 47-35. In 1995, O’Neal faced Boston’s Eric Montross in the first round, Chicago’s Luc Longley in the Eastern Conference Semi-finals, Rik Smits (17.9 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.4 apg, .526 FG%) in the Eastern Conference Finals, and was swept by Hakeem Olajuwon (27.8 ppg [2nd], 10.8 rpg [8th], 3.5 apg, 3.36 bpg [2nd], .517 FG%, Third Team All-NBA) in the NBA Finals. In 1996, O’Neal swept Detroit’s Otis Thorpe in the first round, faced Atlanta’s Andrew Lang in the EC Semis, and was swept by Chicago’s Luc Longley in the Eastern Conference Finals. In 1997 he faced Portland’s Arvydas Sabonis (13.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 2.1 apg) and Chris Dudley in the first round, and lost in five to Utah’s Greg Ostertag in the WC Semis. In 1998 he faced Sabonis (16.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg [9th], 3.0 apg, .493 FG%) in the first round, Seattle’s Sam Perkins (6-9, 235) in the WC Semis, and was swept by Utah’s Greg Ostertag in the WC Finals. In 1999 he beat a 36-year-old Hakeem Olajuwon (18.9 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1.8 apg, 2.46 bpg, .514 FG%, Third Team All-NBA) in four in the first round, and was swept by San Antonio’s David Robinson (15.8 ppg, 10.0 rpg [10th], 2.1 apg, 2.43 bpg [9th], .509 FG% [5th], 31.7 mpg) in the WC Semis.

In 2000 he went through Sacramento’s Vlade Divac (12.3 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, .503 FG%) in five in the first round, Phoenix’s Luc Longley, Mark West and Oliver Miller in five in the WC Semis, Portland’s Arvydas Sabonis (11.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, .505 FG%) in seven in the WCF, and Indiana’s Rik Smits (12.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.1 apg) in six in the NBA Finals. In 2001 he went through Sabonis (10.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.5 apg) in three in the first round, Divac (12.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.9 apg) in four in the WC Semis, David Robinson (14.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 1.5 apg, 2.46 bpg [8th], 29.6 mpg, Third Team All NBA) in four in the WCF, and Defensive Player of the Year Dikembe Mutombo (10.0 ppg, 13.5 rpg [1st], 1.0 apg, 2.71 bpg [5th], .484 FG%, Second Team All-NBA) in five in the NBA Finals. In 2002, he went through Sabonis in three in the first round, Robinson (12.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.79 bpg, .507 FG%, 29.5 mpg) in 5 in the semis, Divac (11.1 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 3.7 apg) in seven in the WCF, and New Jersey’s Todd MacCulloch (9.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.44 bpg, 24.2 mpg), Jason Collins (4.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.1 apg, 18.3 mpg) and Aaron Williams (7.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.9 apg, 18.9 mpg) in the Finals.

In 2003, O’Neal faced Minnesota’s Rasho Nesterovic in the first round, and lost to David Robinson (8.5 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.73 bpg, 26.2 mpg) in the semis. In 2004 he faced Houston’s Yao Ming (17.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.90 bpg, .522 FG%, Third Team All-NBA) in the first round, Rasho Nesterovic in six in the Western Conference Semis, Minnesota’s Michael Olowokandi and Ervin Johnson in the WCF, and lost to Detroit’s Ben Wallace (9.5 ppg, 12.4 rpg [3rd], 1.7 apg, 3.04 bpg [2nd], 1.77 spg, Second Team All-NBA) in five in the NBA Finals. In 2005 with the Heat he faced New Jersey’s Nenad Krstic and Jason Collins in the first round, Washington’s Brendan Haywood in the EC Semis, and lost to Ben Wallace (9.7 ppg, 12.2 rpg [2nd], 1.7 apg, 2.38 bpg [5th], 1.43 spg, Third Team All-NBA, DPOY) in seven in the ECF. In 2006 he went through Chicago’s Tyson Chandler in the first round, New Jersey’s Nenad Krstic and Jason Collins in the Semis, Ben Wallace in the ECF, and Dallas’ Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop in the NBA Finals. In 2007 he was swept by Chicago’s Ben Wallace and P.J. Brown in the first round.

Shaq was eliminated from the playoffs by Rik Smits (1994), Hakeem Olajuwon (1995), Luc Longley (1996), Greg Ostertag (1997, 1998), David Robinson (1999, 2003), and Ben Wallace (2004, 2005, 2007). Wilt was eliminated by Russell (1960 [Second Team All-NBA, 2nd in MVP voting], ’62 [Second Team All-NBA, MVP], ’64-66 [MVP], ’68 [Second Team All-NBA], ’69 [First Team All-Defense, 4th in MVP voting]), Kareem, and Willis Reed (1970 [First Team All-NBA, First Team All-Defense, MVP; 21.7 ppg, 13.9 rpg [6th], 2.0 apg, .507 FG%], 1973). Shaq played 8 games against Hakeem Olajuwon and 19 against David Robinson. That’s 27 of 198 career postseason games (13.6%).

Wilt faced a Hall of Fame center and Top 50 Player of all time in 61 percent of the playoff games in played in his career. Shaq faced a Hall of Fame center and Top 50 Player of all time in 14 percent of the playoff games he played in his career.

Wilt faced Hall of Fame centers who still played like Hall of Fame centers. Nate Thurmond averaged 18.7 points, 21.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 1966-67 when Wilt faced him in the NBA Finals, and finished second in the MVP voting; he averaged 21.5 points, 19.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 1969, and was First Team All-Defense; he averaged 17.1 points, 17.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 1972-73, was Second Team All-Defense and ninth in the MVP voting. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was back-to-back NBA Most Valuable Player when Wilt faced him in 1971 (31.7 ppg [1st], 16.0 rpg [4th], 3.3 apg, .577 FG% [2nd], Second Team All-Defense) and 1972.


I mean, Hakeem Olajuwon went through Ewing, Robinson and Shaq for his two titles—every one of his top rivals at his position, and none of them were old and past their prime. (And Shaq didn't go through Jordan to win any titles, so any statement that Hakeem won with Jordan gone is irrelevant to the discussion of Hakeem and Shaq.) And Wilt at least won a title over his chief rival (Russell) and the league MVP runner-up (Thurmond) in consecutive series, the two greatest defensive centers of his era. Shaq never faced that.

MacGill wrote:5) And most of all, we have Shaq's entire career on film. No newspaper clippings needed, no first hand statements from ex players, coaches.


True, though I collect contemporary observations anyway, to see how people talked about them at the time, once our memories fade, and it determining ultimate rankings once time has passed.


MacGill wrote:Basically between Wilt & Shaq we could stay here allday going back and forth on what each did as a detractor but the increase in production in playoff play combined with his physical domination of the game (how I believe Wilt should have done it) + his 4 titles to me puts him over Wilt. All the rebounds & defence never was the difference factor when it came to Wilt winning


This is actually completely, totally false. But then people don't know much about eras too far prior to them, so it's not just you in particular. But in the '71-72 season, in which his Los Angeles Lakers established the best single-season record prior to the Chicago Bulls:

I've been going over the 33-game winning streak to determine his contribute to the streak, and it's far from complete, but I've got:

5) November 10, 1971, Los Angeles 143, Philadelphia 103 – Gail Goodrich led LA with 34 points, Happy Hairston had 21, Jerry West had 20, Jim McMillian had 19, and Chamberlain had eight blocked shots.

8) November 14, 1971, Los Angeles 128, Boston 115 – Gail Goodrich scored 36 points—30 in the first half, Jerry West had 26 points—13 in the third quarter, and Chamberlain scored only two points, but grabbed 31 rebounds, blocked 13 shots and passed for 10 assists.

22) December 14, 1971: Los Angeles 129, Portland 114 – Chamberlain had 24 points, 18 rebounds, eight assists and seven blocked shots.

25) December 19, 1971: Los Angeles 154, Philadelphia 132 – Chamberlain had 32 points, 34 rebounds and 12 blocked shots.

30) December 30, 1971: Los Angeles 122, Seattle 106 – Jim McMillian led LA with 34 points, Jerry West had 28 points and 11 assists, and Wilt Chamberlain grabbed 24 rebounds and blocked seven shots (Sarasota Herald-Tribune, Jan 1, 1972).


January 4, 1972, the Lakers defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers 111-103 for their 32nd consecutive victory.

Wilt Chamberlain scored only 10 points Wednesday night but he gave the Cleveland Cavaliers ample proof of why he may be the National Basketball Association’s Most Valuable Player this season.

Chamberlain, who’s been content to concentrate on rebounding and defense and leaving the scoring to others this season, blocked four shots in the last quarter and spearheaded a Los Angeles defense that held Cleveland to just two baskets in the last seven minutes of play.
(Ellensburg Daily Record, Jan. 6, 1972)


Through the first three games of the Western Conference Semifinals against the Chicago Bulls, Chamberlain had 16 blocks, an average of 5.33 a game (LA Times, Apr. 4, 1972).

Then the Western Conference Finals against the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles won Game 3 108-105. “Goodrich scored 30, Jim McMillian 27 and Jerry West 22 for the Lakers but Wilt Chamberlain may have made the biggest contribution of all. The 7-foot-1 veteran was outscored 33-7 and outrebounded 21-14 by 7-foot-2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. But Chamberlain blocked nine shots, six of them by Abdul-Jabbar, and distracted the Milwaukee super-star to the point where he made only 15 of 37 shots” (The Evening Independent, Apr. 15, 1972).

The next night Chamberlain took only three shots in the entire game as Goodrich (30 points) and McMillian (27) again led the Laker offense. And again the Bucks lost a slim lead in the closing minutes. But it was Chamberlain who turned the game to the Lakers' favor. Chamberlain's tactic of overplaying Jabbar to his left had not been effective in the first 18 minutes of play; the Buck center had scored 17 points. Wilt's intent was to prevent Abdul-Jabbar from swinging leftward for his deadly hook shot, but Kareem had reacted by rolling to his right for short jumpers and several easy layups. But from 5:13 of the second period until 5:38 of the third, Wilt held Jabbar scoreless and blocked five of his shots, including a dunk and a layup in which Jabbar crashed into Wilt, knocking Chamberlain to the court in pain.

Meanwhile, McMillian scored 15 points as Los Angeles surged from three points behind to six ahead. Then Abdul-Jabbar, fooling Wilt with head fakes and flashy ball handling, scored four consecutive baskets, bringing the Bucks to a 72-72 tie. In the fourth quarter Chamberlain regained his mastery, holding Kareem without a field goal in the final 11:10. In all, Abdul-Jabbar scored 33 points and outrebounded Wilt, but Chamberlain had forced him to take 37 shots to hit his total.


LA won Game 5 115-90. The Lakers out-rebounded the Bucks 70-57, Chamberlain out-rebounding Kareem 26-16. “That was the big thing,” said West. “If we don’t get dominated inside, we’ve got a chance” (The Milwaukee Journal, Apr. 18, 1972). Abdul-Jabbar had a game-high 28 points—his lowest output of the series, but needed 33 shots, of which had made 13 (39.4%). Lakers coach Bill Sharman said it was the best defensive job Chamberlain had done on Jabbar all year. “He kept making contact and didn’t let Kareem get loose,” said Sharman. “He played him kind of like Nate Thurmond plays him. He forced him to take off balance shots” (The Milwaukee Journal, Apr. 18, 1972). Chamberlain also scored 12 points, making all eight of his free throws.

In Game 6, Wilt had 22 points on 8-for-12 (66.7%) shooting, 24 rebounds and nine blocked shots—five of them on Kareem, and held Kareem—who had 37 points on 16-for-36 shooting (44.4%), 25 rebounds and eight assists—to 2-for-8 shooting (25%) in the game’s final 10 minutes as the Lakers won 104-100 to advance to the NBA Finals. West scored 12 of his 25 points in the fourth quarter, and Chamberlain nine, as the Lakers came back from a 10-point deficit.

In the semifinal series with the Lakers, Abdul-Jabbar had a tremendous edge in scoring, 202-67, but was outrebounded, 116-105, and was outmuscled by a greater margin than that. He actually reached the point on occasion where he was intimidated by Chamberlain as he headed toward the basket, and who ever heard of the big Buck being intimidated?

The Lakers eliminated the Bucks in six games, and the turning point occurred, with the series tied 2-2, when Chamberlain took advantage of his tremendous advantage in weight and strength and began pushing Abdul-Jabbar around. Wilt is listed at 275 pounds but probably weighs 290, to Abdul-Jabbar’s 230.

Perhaps the best illustration of Abdul-Jabbar’s difficulties lay in his shooting averages. He shot .574 in the regular season but only .437 in the playoffs ― .405 against Thurmond and .457 against Chamberlain.

Because of the strong defensive work of his two veteran rivals, Abdul-Jabbar often was forced away from his favorite shooting positions. He took hook shots from 12 to 15 feet away instead of from 8 to 10, and sometimes he even resorted to 15 foot jump shots.

Keep It Up

As Chamberlain put it after the fifth game in Los Angeles, which the Lakers won, 115-90, “Tonight Kareem was taking jump shots. That’s something he doesn’t usually do, but I hope he keeps on doing it.”

Abdul-Jabbar took more jump shots Saturday as the Lakers ended the series with a 104-100 victory, and Bucks Coach Larry Costello said, “I don’t want Kareem taking 15 footers. You do that and you’re just not playing your game.”

But Chamberlain’s dominating presence obviously had much to do with Abdul-Jabbar’s change in tactics, and Wilt’s performance against the man who supposedly had usurped his title as king of the giants must have been one of the most satisfying of his long career.


In the NBA Finals against the New York Knicks, Chamberlain averaged 19.4 points on 60 percent shooting (39-for-65), 23.2 rebounds and 7.4 blocked shots, with 24 points on 10-for-14 shooting (71.4%), 29 rebounds and 10 blocked shots in the deciding game.

Wilt's most important block came in the fourth game, the series' best, which Los Angeles won in overtime 116-111. Chamberlain, who has yet to foul out of a game in 13 NBA seasons, committed his fifth personal near the end of regulation time. The Lakers scored the first overtime basket after Wilt controlled the tip-off (Los Angeles won all but four of the 21 quarter-opening taps during the series, another edge it had on New York). Knick Center Jerry Lucas then drove past Chamberlain and lofted a short pop from the middle of the foul lane. Risking his sixth foul, Wilt spun and reached over Lucas' back, gently flicking the ball down. The Knicks recovered the ball, but in the next few seconds it was tipped loose by Jerry West, recaptured by the Knicks, and then Chamberlain blocked another shot. By the time New York could reorganize its offense, the 24-second clock had run out. The Lakers took possession, and Jim McMillian scored to give Los Angeles a four-point lead. New York's Bill Bradley hit a couple of jumpers to tie it up, but the Knicks were goners.


As I've said, Shaq has his advantages over Wilt, but let's be fair and tell things as they are. Saying rebounding and defense was never the difference factor when it came to Wilt winning is patently false. One doesn't need to fudge the truth, the facts should stand on their own.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#263 » by MacGill » Thu Jul 7, 2011 12:37 am

ThaRegul8r wrote:As I've said, Shaq has his advantages over Wilt, but let's be fair and tell things as they are. Saying rebounding and defense was never the difference factor when it came to Wilt winning is patently false. One doesn't need to fudge the truth, the facts should stand on their own.


As I reread my post I can see where you came up with the above. My apologies for not making myself clearer, when I stated that it was regarding the post season not regular season and how you can be as great as you want all season long but that doesn't get you what your team aspires most. Again, my mindset is with how close these bruts were, regular season record isn't enough (best seasons of each if you will) to really put much ground on the other.

Edit: More of the point is that I read how inefficient Shaq was compared to Wilt in these two area's, yet Shaq's dominance factor was on par or arguably greater than Wilt's just depending on what you value more. My point is for the same outlook as you and for things to be said as they are. Not to over value Wilts rebounding/defence or undervalue Shaq's.

The difference maker to me between these two does come down to who made better use of their dominance and that to me was Shaq.

To me Shaq's killer instinct + offence + rebounds/defence weighed in more to his teams than Wilt's superior rebounding/defence. Again I take nothing away from Wilt but Shaq is probably one of the only players who you could visualize dominating Wilt's era like Wilt. It certainly wouldn't be the same in all categories but just as deadly.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#264 » by rrravenred » Thu Jul 7, 2011 12:39 am

What a great thread. This should be held up as an example of what RealGM should be (hat tip to Fatal, as well... who's put up some monstrously good posts).

After considering many of the great arguments, I've come to a (provisional) decision on my vote, which is Magic (i'll come to that a little later).

Wilt's game is incredibly spectacular, and he remains one of the greatest physical outliers in league history. But his mental inflexibility (or maybe single-mindedness is a better term) limited his ability to impact the game on a global, rather than local level. If you put together scoring Wilt, defending Wilt and passing Wilt, you've got the best player in league history by a reasonable margin. But (and here's the rub) they were different Wilts at different stages of his career, on different teams, with different coaches. Shaq, ny way of contrast, was always the same Shaq (at differing effectiveness) for all his career. Same with Kareem, Russell, Bird, Magic... hell... pretty much everyone in the top 10 knew their role, and was comfrotable in their own skin.

Not all of that was Wilt's fault. He was Lebron-like in that he was recognised as the great star outlier very early in his career, which meant he had few true peers and few true individual competitors. Unless you have Russell's nasty streak, or Jordan's ability to fuel yourself with perceived slights I can see difficulties in getting yourself motivated, especially when coaches and franchises are depending on you not to win them games, but to be Wilt and to attract attention for that. Better coaching early might have... but we're not playing "might have".

So Wilt goes lower than 4.

But who goes at 4?

Shaq: too many flaws in his game and intangibles for me to seriously consider. I'm of the school that his true peak is somewhat overstated due to inferior competition (although he still managed to shine against the 90s glut of quality Cs) and that his conditioning and non-team-related egotism degrade him somewhat in the all-time stakes (don't worry, I do rate him highly, as you'll see in subsequent threads).

Duncan: the most rounded of the remaining candidates, however his non-peak numbers are only very, very good, not fantastic. The question is whether his intangibles and defence are strong enough to overcome the lack of raw production of some of his peers. Not... quite.

Bird/Magic: Twinned forever in the mythic underworld of basketball, splitting these two requires absolute precision. THe blythe way in which people have been picking Magic has been annoying me for quite a few pages now.

Bird was just devastating, especially at peak, providing pretty much everything you want from a basketball player. His injury decline (partially due to the 100% committed way he played) is a serious ding on his resume, but his 3-4 year peak exceed's Magic's peak (though not necessarily prime). Faltered slightly in some playoff series

Magic? Well the best team offensive player in history by a clear margin. ORchestrated some devastating teams and just flat-out clowned the league. Like Bird, had some great raw material to work with, and managed to lift when required (although as noted, is not without blemish as a playoff performner). I've always been interested how Magic's HIV infection isn't held as a ding against him in the sense that it was a self-inflicted "injury" through unsafe promiscuity that shortened his career (as well, sadly, as his life expectancy) although as we don't know when he contracted it, the level of public knowledge is debateable. Having said that, he's still got two or three full seasons of quality on Bird which, for me, provide the sliver of difference required.

Magic. My next vote can be inferred fairly easily, too. :)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#265 » by ThaRegul8r » Thu Jul 7, 2011 1:02 am

rrravenred wrote:What a great thread. This should be held up as an example of what RealGM should be


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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#266 » by pancakes3 » Thu Jul 7, 2011 1:42 am

i suppose at this point it's too late to make an impassioned plea for wilt, especially since so many thousands of words have been bantered back and forth but i still feel compelled to type a few words...

first and foremost i'm eager to see all the situational analysts come back for Shaq and Kobe's debate. all the talk of diminishing returns of volume scoring should have some choice words as to what happened in 2004.

second off, i think in dissecting Wilt's individual performances in certain end-series scenarios is looking too close at the trees and missing the forest. 4x MVP in the russell era, more all-nba nods than Russ (one's player-based and the other media based), epic-high FGA's on epic-high FG%'s despite triple and even quadruple teams, as well as 3 seasons of 31+ PER?

PER is designed to give some context to cross-era comparisons and Wilt topped off the PER charts at 31+ 3 times? that's just 1 short of MJ and well ahead of KAJ's 0 or Shaq's 0 (to be fair, peak shaq had 3 seasons of 30+ PER against the Centers of the early 2000's. not as impressive as out-statting walt bellamy and jerry lucas). I just feel that the greatest statistical big man of all time should not have to slip past 4.

as for those saying Wilt should have won more with his talent? talking about talent against the dynastic Celtics? A sixers team whose double-digit scorers went 4 deep against the C's roster who has 6/7 double-digit scorers AND a facilitator like KC Jones?

sure Hal greer had a bunch of 2nd team all-nba nods to his name. you know who else has a bunch of 2nd team all-nba nods? cousy. sam jones. havlicek. three 2nd teamers to the sixers' one. toss in bill russell into that equation and the situation seems more forgiving, no?

i'm just saying a guy who can play at an elite level well into his 30's, and keep up an up-n-comer like Kareem (who ranks AHEAD of him on this list) deserves the #4 spot. I mean, Wilt taking on the greatest college player of all time in KAJ, beats him out for all-d nods, out rebounds him, and tops him in the playoffs... why isn't he an easy bet for the 4th best player of all time? mental/situational flaws and all?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#267 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 7, 2011 1:49 am

rrravenred wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:Magic 29-3 in series with HCA
Bird 24-7 in series with HCA
Wilt 13-5 in series with HCA

Series with HCA vs 50+ win teams and non-50 win teams.

Code: Select all

 vs 50 win teams/non-50 win teams
Wilt:     4-3 (57%)/   9-2 (82%)
Magic:    9-2 (82%)/   20-1 (95%)
Bird:     10-6 (63%)/  14-1 (93%)


Have you broken those down by SRS, out of interst?

The numbers are quite interesting when you break it down this way. Here's some data I was looking at before. i hope all the numbers are correct.

I made a huge mistake nominating Karl. Yikes at his numbers. :o

Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record:
                      W-L   PCT
1) Magic 80-91'      32-7  82.1%
2) Kobe 99-11'       28-7  80%
3) Bird 80-91'       23-8  74.2%
4) Shaq 93-08'       31-11 73.8%
5) Duncan 98-11'     25-9  73.5%
6) Dr. J 77-87'      18-10 64.3%
7) Wilt 60-73'       18-11 62.1%
8) Hakeem 85-99'     16-12 57.1%
9) Moses 77-89'      13-11 54.2%
10)Mailman 86-01'    16-16 50%


Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record with HCA:

                      W-L   PCT
1) Kobe 99-11'       25-2  92.6%
2) Magic 80-91'      30-3  90.9%
3) Shaq 93-08'       24-4  85.7%
4) Dr. J 77-87'      16-4  80%
5) Hakeem 85-99'     12-3  80%
6) Duncan 98-11'     18-5  78.7%
7) Bird 80-91'       23-7  76.7%
8) Wilt 60-73'       15-5  75%
9) Moses 77-89'       6-3  66.7%
10)Mailman 86-01'    11-9  55%


Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record with HCA against teams with a +2 SRS:

                      W-L   PCT
1) Kobe 99-11'       24-2  92.3%
2) Hakeem 85-99'      8-1  88.9%
3) Magic 80-91'      15-2  88.2%
4) Shaq 93-08'       16-4  80%
5) Dr. J 77-87'       6-2  75%
6) Moses 77-89'       3-1  75%
7) Bird 80-91'       13-5  72.2%
8) Wilt 60-73'       10-4  71.4%
9) Duncan 98-11'     12-5  70.6%
10)Mailman 86-01'     5-6  45.5%


Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record with HCA against teams with a +4 SRS:

                      W-L   PCT
1) Kobe 99-11'       12-2  85.7%
2) Magic 80-91'       6-1  85.7%
5) Hakeem 85-99'      4-1  80%
3) Shaq 93-08'        7-2  77.8%%
6) Duncan 98-11'      6-2  75%
4) Dr. J 77-87'       4-2  66.7%
9) Moses 77-89'       2-1  66.7%
7) Bird 80-91'        6-5  54.5%
8) Wilt 60-73'        3-3  50%
10)Mailman 86-01'     1-5  16.7%
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#268 » by JordansBulls » Thu Jul 7, 2011 2:10 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
rrravenred wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:Magic 29-3 in series with HCA
Bird 24-7 in series with HCA
Wilt 13-5 in series with HCA

Series with HCA vs 50+ win teams and non-50 win teams.

Code: Select all

 vs 50 win teams/non-50 win teams
Wilt:     4-3 (57%)/   9-2 (82%)
Magic:    9-2 (82%)/   20-1 (95%)
Bird:     10-6 (63%)/  14-1 (93%)


Have you broken those down by SRS, out of interst?

The numbers are quite interesting when you break it down this way. Here's some data I was looking at before. i hope all the numbers are correct.

I made a huge mistake nominating Karl. Yikes at his numbers. :o

Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record:
                      W-L   PCT
1) Magic 80-91'      32-7  82.1%
2) Kobe 99-11'       28-7  80%
3) Bird 80-91'       23-8  74.2%
4) Shaq 93-08'       31-11 73.8%
5) Duncan 98-11'     25-9  73.5%
6) Dr. J 77-87'      18-10 64.3%
7) Wilt 60-73'       18-11 62.1%
8) Hakeem 85-99'     16-12 57.1%
9) Moses 77-89'      13-11 54.2%
10)Mailman 86-01'    16-16 50%


Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record with HCA:

                      W-L   PCT
1) Kobe 99-11'       25-2  92.6%
2) Magic 80-91'      30-3  90.9%
3) Shaq 93-08'       24-4  85.7%
4) Dr. J 77-87'      16-4  80%
5) Hakeem 85-99'     12-3  80%
6) Duncan 98-11'     18-5  78.7%
7) Bird 80-91'       23-7  76.7%
8) Wilt 60-73'       15-5  75%
9) Moses 77-89'       6-3  66.7%
10)Mailman 86-01'    11-9  55%


Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record with HCA against teams with a +2 SRS:

                      W-L   PCT
1) Kobe 99-11'       24-2  92.3%
2) Hakeem 85-99'      8-1  88.9%
3) Magic 80-91'      15-2  88.2%
4) Shaq 93-08'       16-4  80%
5) Dr. J 77-87'       6-2  75%
6) Moses 77-89'       3-1  75%
7) Bird 80-91'       13-5  72.2%
8) Wilt 60-73'       10-4  71.4%
9) Duncan 98-11'     12-5  70.6%
10)Mailman 86-01'     5-6  45.5%


Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record with HCA against teams with a +4 SRS:

                      W-L   PCT
1) Kobe 99-11'       12-2  85.7%
2) Magic 80-91'       6-1  85.7%
5) Hakeem 85-99'      4-1  80%
3) Shaq 93-08'        7-2  77.8%%
6) Duncan 98-11'      6-2  75%
4) Dr. J 77-87'       4-2  66.7%
9) Moses 77-89'       2-1  66.7%
7) Bird 80-91'        6-5  54.5%
8) Wilt 60-73'        3-3  50%
10)Mailman 86-01'     1-5  16.7%


Why would it be a mistake nominating Karl when all the other guys are on the list already as well?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#269 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 7, 2011 2:55 am

JordansBulls wrote:Why would it be a mistake nominating Karl when all the other guys are on the list already as well?

Karl's playoff record is horrible for someone flirting with the Top 10. He's only .500 in the postseason, and barely over .500 with HCA, losing an astounding 9 times. He's 1-5 against Top teams(+4 SRS), even with HCA. I mean...WOW. :lol:
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#270 » by rrravenred » Thu Jul 7, 2011 3:02 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:The numbers are quite interesting when you break it down this way. Here's some data I was looking at before. i hope all the numbers are correct.



Hmmm... interesting. The other way to do it is by relative SRS i.e. records against teams with a good SRS when compared against your own.

Of course, I put close-to-zero stock in an individual's W/L record, but it's one approach to take.

edit: Or perhaps Winshares or <shudder> PER by quality of opponent played.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#271 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 7, 2011 3:19 am

rrravenred wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:The numbers are quite interesting when you break it down this way. Here's some data I was looking at before. i hope all the numbers are correct.

Hmmm... interesting. The other way to do it is by relative SRS i.e. records against teams with a good SRS when compared against your own.

I don't think relative SRS would give the same quality of data. If a 4.32 team has HCA over a 4.41 team, they should still win the series. The correlation between HCA and the series winner is very strong.

I also think using HCA really shows who wins when they're supposed to, and who doesn't. Hakeem for example, is only 57.1% in the playoffs, but a whopping 80% with HCA, and as you look at SRS, you see that Hakeem's teams do really well against elite teams. Conversely, Malone is just horrific.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#272 » by ThaRegul8r » Thu Jul 7, 2011 3:22 am

JordansBulls wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:The numbers are quite interesting when you break it down this way. Here's some data I was looking at before. i hope all the numbers are correct.

I made a huge mistake nominating Karl. Yikes at his numbers. :o

Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record:
                      W-L   PCT
1) Magic 80-91'      32-7  82.1%
2) Kobe 99-11'       28-7  80%
3) Bird 80-91'       23-8  74.2%
4) Shaq 93-08'       31-11 73.8%
5) Duncan 98-11'     25-9  73.5%
6) Dr. J 77-87'      18-10 64.3%
7) Wilt 60-73'       18-11 62.1%
8) Hakeem 85-99'     16-12 57.1%
9) Moses 77-89'      13-11 54.2%
10)Mailman 86-01'    16-16 50%


Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record with HCA:

                      W-L   PCT
1) Kobe 99-11'       25-2  92.6%
2) Magic 80-91'      30-3  90.9%
3) Shaq 93-08'       24-4  85.7%
4) Dr. J 77-87'      16-4  80%
5) Hakeem 85-99'     12-3  80%
6) Duncan 98-11'     18-5  78.7%
7) Bird 80-91'       23-7  76.7%
8) Wilt 60-73'       15-5  75%
9) Moses 77-89'       6-3  66.7%
10)Mailman 86-01'    11-9  55%


Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record with HCA against teams with a +2 SRS:

                      W-L   PCT
1) Kobe 99-11'       24-2  92.3%
2) Hakeem 85-99'      8-1  88.9%
3) Magic 80-91'      15-2  88.2%
4) Shaq 93-08'       16-4  80%
5) Dr. J 77-87'       6-2  75%
6) Moses 77-89'       3-1  75%
7) Bird 80-91'       13-5  72.2%
8) Wilt 60-73'       10-4  71.4%
9) Duncan 98-11'     12-5  70.6%
10)Mailman 86-01'     5-6  45.5%


Code: Select all

Playoff Series Record with HCA against teams with a +4 SRS:

                      W-L   PCT
1) Kobe 99-11'       12-2  85.7%
2) Magic 80-91'       6-1  85.7%
5) Hakeem 85-99'      4-1  80%
3) Shaq 93-08'        7-2  77.8%%
6) Duncan 98-11'      6-2  75%
4) Dr. J 77-87'       4-2  66.7%
9) Moses 77-89'       2-1  66.7%
7) Bird 80-91'        6-5  54.5%
8) Wilt 60-73'        3-3  50%
10)Mailman 86-01'     1-5  16.7%


Why would it be a mistake nominating Karl when all the other guys are on the list already as well?


Just look at his record with HCA, man!

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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#273 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 7, 2011 3:33 am

ThaRegul8r wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:Why would it be a mistake nominating Karl when all the other guys are on the list already as well?


Just look at his record with HCA, man!

:o

:lol:

Mock me all you want my friend. But you can't deny that those numbers encapsulated Malone's very playoff essence. I mean were talking about a guys who's FG% drops from 51.6% to 46.3% in the playoffs. His TS drops from 57.7% to 52.6%. lol
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#274 » by rrravenred » Thu Jul 7, 2011 3:50 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:I don't think relative SRS would give the same quality of data. If a 4.32 team has HCA over a 4.41 team, they should still win the series. The correlation between HCA and the series winner is very strong.

I also think using HCA really shows who wins when they're supposed to, and who doesn't. Hakeem for example, is only 57.1% in the playoffs, but a whopping 80% with HCA, and as you look at SRS, you see that Hakeem's teams do really well against elite teams. Conversely, Malone is just horrific.


I disagree. There's ALWAYS variance and difficulties with particular matchups. Probability is not destiny, and is also not a comment on personal worth.

And as I said earlier, I think it's dangerous to conflate individual worth with team records. A great individual performance can be trumped by a better team performance from the opponent.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#275 » by rrravenred » Thu Jul 7, 2011 4:04 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
ThaRegul8r wrote:
JordansBulls wrote:Why would it be a mistake nominating Karl when all the other guys are on the list already as well?


Just look at his record with HCA, man!

:o

:lol:

Mock me all you want my friend. But you can't deny that those numbers encapsulated Malone's very playoff essence. I mean were talking about a guys who's FG% drops from 51.6% to 46.3% in the playoffs. His TS drops from 57.7% to 52.6%. lol


In elimination games he does average 26/10/3.5 at a 53% TS.

That's absolutely a dropoff, but it's not exactly off-a-cliff bad. If you're looking at reasons for the Jazz losing those playoff series, you've got to look in more than one place.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#276 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 7, 2011 4:04 am

rrravenred wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:I don't think relative SRS would give the same quality of data. If a 4.32 team has HCA over a 4.41 team, they should still win the series. The correlation between HCA and the series winner is very strong.

I also think using HCA really shows who wins when they're supposed to, and who doesn't. Hakeem for example, is only 57.1% in the playoffs, but a whopping 80% with HCA, and as you look at SRS, you see that Hakeem's teams do really well against elite teams. Conversely, Malone is just horrific.


I disagree. There's ALWAYS variance and difficulties with particular matchups. Probability is not destiny, and is also not a comment on personal worth.

And as I said earlier, I think it's dangerous to conflate individual worth with team records. A great individual performance can be trumped by a better team performance from the opponent.

Very true, there is definitely variance on a series by series basis. However, over the course of a career the data's error rate is very low. The Top 2 guys when you look at these numbers is MJ & Russell, and that's no coincidence. "Winning when they're supposed to", was a point brought up in earlier threads. Just look at the data, and everyone is where they should be when you think of that concept.

Also, I would point out that people look at regular season records all the time. "Player A led his team to 50+ seasons every year", "Player B won 60 games with a crap supporting cast", "Player C didn't make the playoffs this and that year". Playoff records seem much more relevant than regular season ones.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#277 » by rrravenred » Thu Jul 7, 2011 4:13 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
rrravenred wrote:I disagree. There's ALWAYS variance and difficulties with particular matchups. Probability is not destiny, and is also not a comment on personal worth.

And as I said earlier, I think it's dangerous to conflate individual worth with team records. A great individual performance can be trumped by a better team performance from the opponent.

Very true, there is definitely variance on a series by series basis. However, over the course of a career the data's error rate is very low. The Top 2 guys when you look at these numbers is MJ & Russell, and that's no coincidence. "Winning when they're supposed to", was a point brought up in earlier threads. Just look at the data, and everyone is where they should be when you think of that concept.

Also, I would point out that people look at regular season records all the time. "Player A led his team to 50+ seasons every year", "Player B won 60 games with a crap supporting cast", "Player C didn't make the playoffs this and that year". Playoff records seem much more relevant than regular season ones.


They "are where they should be" because we've validated the assumption after the fact. Confirmation of narrative isn't (for mine) a sound way of looking at an analytical tool.

And I disagree (to an extent) about long-term trends. Players don't exist in a vacuum, but in team and for that matter franchise contexts. If you can absolutely disentangle a player's individual contribution from the team context in which they performed then I'd like some of whatever cognitive enhancer you're on, as it's a really fraught task. You can't disentangle Malone from Stockton, or Kobe from Shaq, or Jordan from Jackson, or for that matter Russell from Auerbach.

I try not to refer to W/L records. As I said, they can be really deceiving when they're stripped of external and internal contexts. When used IN context (i.e. how effectively the same team went without player x) they can have some use, however.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#278 » by MacGill » Thu Jul 7, 2011 4:19 am

[quote="An Unbiased Fan
Also, I would point out that people look at regular season records all the time. "Player A led his team to 50+ seasons every year", "Player B won 60 games with a crap supporting cast", "Player C didn't make the playoffs this and that year". Playoff records seem much more relevant than regular season ones.[/quote]

I agree with you here! While we can analyze regular season games and what not, to me, especially in the top 10, regular season performances are going to have little sway because of the quality of resumes these candidates have and for the most part all their teams held great individual seasons as well.

Most athletes will tell you regular season is just that and the playoffs is what really counts. Now a team like mine, of course, it's baby steps and I will just take any regular season success. But all these top dogs already have that regardless if some are greater 5-8 games.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#279 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Jul 7, 2011 4:36 am

rrravenred wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:
rrravenred wrote:I disagree. There's ALWAYS variance and difficulties with particular matchups. Probability is not destiny, and is also not a comment on personal worth.

And as I said earlier, I think it's dangerous to conflate individual worth with team records. A great individual performance can be trumped by a better team performance from the opponent.

Very true, there is definitely variance on a series by series basis. However, over the course of a career the data's error rate is very low. The Top 2 guys when you look at these numbers is MJ & Russell, and that's no coincidence. "Winning when they're supposed to", was a point brought up in earlier threads. Just look at the data, and everyone is where they should be when you think of that concept.

Also, I would point out that people look at regular season records all the time. "Player A led his team to 50+ seasons every year", "Player B won 60 games with a crap supporting cast", "Player C didn't make the playoffs this and that year". Playoff records seem much more relevant than regular season ones.


They "are where they should be" because we've validated the assumption after the fact. Confirmation of narrative isn't (for mine) a sound way of looking at an analytical tool.

And I disagree (to an extent) about long-term trends. Players don't exist in a vacuum, but in team and for that matter franchise contexts. If you can absolutely disentangle a player's individual contribution from the team context in which they performed then I'd like some of whatever cognitive enhancer you're on, as it's a really fraught task. You can't disentangle Malone from Stockton, or Kobe from Shaq, or Jordan from Jackson, or for that matter Russell from Auerbach.

I try not to refer to W/L records. As I said, they can be really deceiving when they're stripped of external and internal contexts. When used IN context (i.e. how effectively the same team went without player x) they can have some use, however.

Again, you make some great points. I don't really use HCA efficiency to find indivudal contributions, it's more of an enhanced way to look at playoff records. Success in the post-season is something I value highly, so finding out how a player's team did in various scenarios, is of great interest to me.

For example, I knew Malone was an under-achiever in the playoffs. I had looked at his numbers before, and remember watching his choke jobs on TV. Yet, the HCA data gave me even more insight into how much impact his poor play had.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 #4 

Post#280 » by Gongxi » Thu Jul 7, 2011 5:23 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
rrravenred wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:The numbers are quite interesting when you break it down this way. Here's some data I was looking at before. i hope all the numbers are correct.

Hmmm... interesting. The other way to do it is by relative SRS i.e. records against teams with a good SRS when compared against your own.

I don't think relative SRS would give the same quality of data. If a 4.32 team has HCA over a 4.41 team, they should still win the series. The correlation between HCA and the series winner is very strong.


Do you realize how long a series would have to be to be of statistically significant between those two hypothetical teams? Way longer than seven games. WAY longer. Seven games is nothing.

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