Moderators: trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ
ShaqAttack3234 wrote:I'm going to vote for Oscar actually. I use to think Oscar was overrated because of the triple double season, and I still think people completely miss the point when they bring that up as the case for him being great
I remember your posts from the RPOY project, you consistently brought it. Please continue to do so, sir. This board needs guys like you to counteract ... worthless posters
Retirement isn’t the end of the road, but just a turn in the road. – Unknown
ElGee wrote:An Unbiased Fan wrote:RR is extremely useful for regularization, but the problem you're trying to solve requires the data to first be individualized to an extent
Given the possibility that you might be some kind of math genius that is way beyond me...Can you please explain a situation when you would use Ridge Regression so I can understand it? What you're saying is incompatible with everything I know. Thanks.
PCProductions wrote:Saying RAPM can't find individual value is like saying we can't prove the existence of black holes because we can't see them.
An Unbiased Fan wrote:I have no problem with it, or with RAPM for what it is. I just have a big issue with RAPM results being labeled as individual impact, when I see it reflective of lineup trends. Ridge simply can't be applied with that data to give you the output you desire. That's been shown over and over again. Change up your input variables to some individual like Synergy type data, or some parsed out PbP data, and I think it could be something. but simple +/- lineup data isn't going to cut it, for what you're trying to accomplish.
Doctor MJ wrote:trex_8063 wrote:How well this is reflected in RAPM data is a bit fudged, as there's limited available for Malone's career. His RAPM in '98 thru '00 look pretty good, though......"generally competitive" with the league's elite (especially in '98).
With the exception of '04, the vast majority of KG's hyper-elite RAPM seasons came in years where he was playing reduced minutes (<33 mpg every year since '07, and even <30 three times). Doctor MJ, probably the biggest proponent of RAPM data here, has made comment---months ago in a debate about John Stockton, and his near-stellar RAPM stats during the twilight of his career---about how impact stats often improve with reduced minutes. So presumably the same applies to KG.
Malone's RAPM in the late 90's is comparable to KG's RAPM stats for all years he was playing big "star level" minutes (again, with the exception of '04, when KG was insanely good).
Hmm. Let's see. I'll start with the stuff clearest in mind, the KG stuff.
Garnett has 2 years with a scaled RAPM north of 11. They came in years where he played 38+ MPG in Minny.
Garnett has 7 years with a scaled RAPM north of 9, 4 of them 38+ MPG in Minny.
trex_8063 wrote:Could you briefly explain what scaled RAPM is (it's particularly the "scaled" part that I need defined/explained)?
Also, could you provide a link to your source of this info? Because these "scaled" RAPM stats you cite are pretty drastically different from the data I have. In the data I have, Garnett's best is +8.8 ('04), and NO ONE ever had anything near +11 (Lebron's got the best ever with +9.6).
fpliii wrote:An Unbiased Fan wrote:I have no problem with it, or with RAPM for what it is. I just have a big issue with RAPM results being labeled as individual impact, when I see it reflective of lineup trends. Ridge simply can't be applied with that data to give you the output you desire. That's been shown over and over again. Change up your input variables to some individual like Synergy type data, or some parsed out PbP data, and I think it could be something. but simple +/- lineup data isn't going to cut it, for what you're trying to accomplish.
The input IS parsed PbP data.
How specifically would you use synergy-type data??? You need a system of equations to use ridge regression, which is exactly what the lineup data provides.
acrossthecourt wrote:
i should double-check and finish the numbers, but I looked at how WS/48 changed with ABA players and NBA players from 1976 to 1977. Both sets of players declined, but the NBA declined more. Given their records in those exhibition games between leagues and more data about players switching teams, it appears the ABA was at lest as strong as the NBA in 1977, though not as big, and got progressively worse as you went backyards. But for like three/four years they were comparable.
Leading to ...
How would you rank Dr. J's 1976 season if it had happened in the NBA? (Given the lack of dominant teams in the NBA then, it's not unreasonable he wins a title there.) And how do you rank his '73 through '75 seasons? How does that compare to West and Kobe?
my opinion changes as I learn/read more), due to playing around with ElGee's championship odds method: viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1197767 (I know I keep linking this, but it's really, really worthwhile...select whichever input data you want, even for abstract/hypothetical players, longevity is a very underrated quality in players).
disenfranchised wrote:Kobe most ever first team ALL-NBA selections.
Kobe most ever first team ALL-DEFENSE selections.
Kobe most consecutive all-star games ever.
31,000+ points and counting.
5 rings.
Not top ten? The incompetence in that notion is bewildering. There's no question he's top 10 all time, but the real question is, is he top 5? I say YES.
Chuck Texas wrote:therealbig3 wrote:Chuck Texas wrote:yeah your explanation confirms how I thought of each of them. They are all measuring the same thing. Sure there are some small differences and they are worth looking at individually, but to call them 3 distinct perspectives is stretching it. I'm going to choose to consider those 3 "categories" as 1.
It is 3 different perspectives though, because they're NOT measuring the same thing. They're all used for the same thing, but they measure it differently, which is why I consider them separate categories.
I feel like you're only choosing to consider these categories as all the same thing, because they happen to all agree with each other in KG's case. But there are many instances where on/off and with/without say two different things, even though they both look at when a player is off the court. And RAPM can say something different as well. Sometimes, a player that look great in terms of on/off has a poor RAPM, and vice versa.
The fact that they all point to the same conclusion with regards to KG just increases the likelihood that KG, and not numerous other factors, are actually the reason for it.
I understand the differences just fine. And I can understand that they can have some differing results, but its the same principle. How the team plays with and without a certain player. I get that a player sitting for 12 minutes in regular rotations is different from him missing a whole game which is different from missing a month and so on.
You can feel free to look at them as clearly distinct. I'm choosing not to because I think its misleading and it the case of your breakdown of KG v Kobe is weighting them 3x as much as box scores. Maybe you think it deserves 3x the weight . I don't and thus I think it leads to some fault conclusions when comparing them in this method.
ElGee wrote:Question for the room: How do you see Oscar's defense? How do you think it compares to West? Or maybe put another way, how do you not see West as a better defender, and assuming that you do, what's the margin?
ElGee wrote:Question for the room: How do you see Oscar's defense? How do you think it compares to West? Or maybe put another way, how do you not see West as a better defender, and assuming that you do, what's the margin?
Milwaukee Bucks' coach Larry Costello wrote:We don’t just miss Oscar on offense. We miss him even more on defense. Our defense has been a sieve ever since he got hurt.
(The Milwaukee Journal, Feb 12, 1972)
Allen, Wally Jones and Jon McGlocklin […] had more than their share of trouble covering [Earl] Monroe, who showed the 10,746 fans every move in the book as he scored 21 points, most of them in clutch situations.
“That’s what I mean about how much we miss Oscar on defense,” Costello said. “Monroe made one tough shot after another, but he wouldn’t have been able to go one on one like that against Oscar. Oscar is bigger and stronger than our other guards.”
I remember your posts from the RPOY project, you consistently brought it. Please continue to do so, sir. This board needs guys like you to counteract ... worthless posters
Retirement isn’t the end of the road, but just a turn in the road. – Unknown
fpliii wrote:ElGee wrote:Question for the room: How do you see Oscar's defense? How do you think it compares to West? Or maybe put another way, how do you not see West as a better defender, and assuming that you do, what's the margin?
Great question, and I have absolutely no clue what to think about his defense. West on the other hand, seems like he's definitely a plus defender at the guard position, in no small part due to his length, athleticism, and effort exerted on that end.
Just to get an idea, who do you feel are some of Oscar's and West's historical similars defensively, based on how you currently profile them on that end?
Something which would not go away by itself was Oscar Robertson, who guarded West tightly, harassing him with firm hand checks and his superior size and strength despite a deep muscle pull in his stomach which restricted his normal quickness. Since Robertson arrived in Milwaukee in 1970, West has not played well against the Bucks: last season he hit only 32% of his shots, and by the fourth game of this year's playoffs he was still under 40% for the series. In the third game West scored on nearly half his attempts, but he tried only 19 shots and generally took only wide open ones.