RealGM Top 100 List #14

[Clyde Frazier]

To be fair though most posters here didn't see Dr J and West play so for all you know it may have been just as amazing to watch them as it was Dirk.

I watched a bit of both in their primes (even caught a bit of ABA action since I was a big ABA fan since they used to let us into games free when Rick Barry played in Washington) . . .

West was like Dirk. You would just hope he didn't get the ball because if he did, it would be a good shot. More dynamic defensively even in 1969 on (though part of that was era; lot more turnovers and fast breaks so more dynamic play).

Erving was like Jordan. Just ridiculous; should have been outlawed for being a toon.

What are your thoughts on barry purely as a player? He clearly doesn't get a fair shake due to his off the court personality as far as i'm concerned. I'm sure the dislike for him is warranted (brent barely mentions him on TV -- they don't seem to have a great relationship), but that shouldn't really change his ability as a player (for the most part).

[tsherkin]

The 107 refers to his postseason ORtg, too (just in the years I had specified---'88-'03---which I assumed you were replying directly to, given the quoting of my post).

You quoted me, so I was just pointing out that I was not wrong, since you implied that your b-ref stat was more accurate than mine, which was not true. That's all.

See, I don't necessarily agree with the bolded (NOTE: unless the efficiency is truly awful). You take both into consideration, while also factoring in circumstance/context. To me, getting elite level volume on generally average (or slightly above average) efficiency is still fairly impressive when you're facing a lot of elite defenses (which as my prior post perhaps indicated Malone faced "more than his fair share" of elite defenses), AND you don't have any other isolation scorers (not even a Jamal Crawford or similar) to take some of the heat off.

I immediately disagree. It's very clear that having him in that role, producing at that level, killed their offense at important times in the playoffs. This was a mix of his game not being suited to that against certain kinds of defenses and of the roster around him not being sufficient to support him in that scenario, because he wasn't Michael Jordan. But there's no question that his performance was not elite by any standard. Again, through 98, his ORTG was 108 and his scoring efficiency was league average, so his overall offensive production was about league average level in the given period, a little above. That's... OK. That's pretty decent for a non-contending squad, but certainly not elite.

Malone's post-season offensive output/efficiency only appears lackluster when you compare it to that of the hyper-elite offensive forwards, like Dirk and Barkley.

But we're not ranking positionally, we are explicitly discussing a top-100 list, and that means comparing him to his peers... some of whom are indeed those superior offensive forwards as well as other superior offensive players. It's very relevant in this context that he doesn't perform up to their level, since that is his primary means of contribution to a team.

But again: Malone was a better defender than either of them, and was a better rebounder than Dirk. And he's got at least a small longevity and durability argument over both, as well.

Was he? While that's true in the RS, Malone's 96-98 playoff TRB% is 16.3%, his DRB% 24.1%. Dirk's are 14.2% TRB... and 24.6% DRB. So he's actually been a better defensive rebounder than Malone over his entire career than Malone over his prime. Yeah, Malone was a better offensive rebounder, but that distinction falls away as it is a component of offense, and Dirk's superior scoring efficiency helps overcome that.

Food for thought, in any case.

Hmmm....
His career post-season TOV per 100 possessions is 3.8. That's barely behind the career PS avg's of Tim Duncan and Charles Barkley (3.7 each), and better than that of:
Amar'e Stoudemire (3.9)
Shaq O'Neal (4.3)
Julius Erving (4.7)
Dwyane Wade (4.8)
Dwight Howard (4.9)
Shawn Kemp (5.0)

The only players currently in the discussion that it's significantly behind are Moses Malone (3.3), and Dirk Nowitzki (3.0). Dirk's ball-control numbers are well-renowned, and part of why I won't declare that Malone is the better passer/play-maker despite the vastly superior apg numbers. Although don't overlook that Dirk is averaging fewer TO's while also putting up less volume and with somewhat lower USG% (even in the ps).

I agree... except that pretty much all of those guys ended up doing more as scorers, so the impact of the turnovers was lessened. In the case of someone like Duncan, it's more that his defense overtakes the difference in offense, since Tim wasn't really an ATG stunner on offense himself. Also, I wouldn't really make a pro-Dwight argument over Malone at this point, especially since with his back injury, his longevity is in question, and he was never really a dominant postseason offensive player.

But take someone like Shaq...

Postseason stuff:

Shaq: 27.2 ppg over his Orlando and LA careers, 113 ORTG, 56.8% TS despite 50.4% FT.

That's why the turnovers matter more; as your offensive efficiency declines, if those turnovers are still up there, your overall offensive productivity will obviously be lesser. Because Malone fell off so much so as a scoring force in the postseason, his overall offensive impact mostly pales in comparison to his peers, and his D really isn't enough to account for that drop-off next to a lot of different guys.

He's not elite on offense in the postseason. His postseason numbers don't resemble an elite offensive player compared to RS production or elite production compared to what his peers produce. There is no definition under which his production can be accurately described as "elite" unless you're impressed by volume alone, which is produced by virtue of opportunity. Lacking any kind of volume scorer on his Utah squads apart from himself, that really isn't a huge surprise.

It's mildly impressive in the sense that he wasn't as a truly awful player a lot of the time, but his offense has no real business in a discussion of elite postseason performers. There are too many other guys out there who performed much, much more effectively. He drops off way too much, and even from that lofty beginning, the end result is not in the elite class.

The point is, Malone was a very good player, but offensively, he isn't in the same class as most of the guys who are in the conversation at this stage of the game. His D doesn't really begin to make up for that. He isn't in a class with Dirk or Barkley on offense, nor West, nor Erving. For point of comparison, pre-injury Robinson was a 24.1 PER, 55.7% TS, 113 ORTG player in the postseason. In 99, he was a 23.3 PER, 56.3% TS, 109 ORTG player on 15.6 ppg (roughly 10.6 FGA/g), so post--injury, 33 years old, second fiddle time, so some context applies but still. Malone's productive value in the playoffs was not elite.

Narratively impressive given his roster context, sure; the way Hornacek and Stockton fell off in the postseason during the title years, not helping his case. Utah's roster, not really as awesome as people thought and Stockton really blew in 98, though I don't think anyone is a) surprised or b) holding that against him following microfracture surgery. That year. That said, what was Jordan playing with in the 98 Finals?

Pippen was, as was often the case, dog crap. 104 ORTG, 50.2% TS on around 14 shots per game... that was his next best player. Jordan rocked a 111 ORTG on 41.2% USG. which embarrasses the idea of poor Malone and his roster support, you know? Yeah yeah, Jordan = GOAT and everything and generally speaking a vastly superior scorer, but it helps lends some perspective on Malone's situation.

There's some element of winner's bias here, to be sure; after choking horribly in 97, Malone played FAR better in the 98 series, and of course he was a beast in G6 of the 98 Finals... in the first half. Rodman kind of owned him in the second half, holding him to 1/4 shooting. 31/11/7 seems really nice, but 5 turnovers (1 really bad one that was only 50% his fault at the end when Jordan stripped him from behind) and that kind of failure in the second half isn't as awesome as it seems. The Jazz were up 4 at the half, up 5 after the 3rd and then couldn't get it done in the final stanza, particularly with Malone choking again.

More food for thought all around. Volume alone isn't enough; if it isn't supported by efficiency, or at LEAST a low turnover rate, then it's a little more empty than the grandiose average might otherwise suggest. Yeah, it's kind of neat that Malone was able to post those numbers, but it's still a fall off from his RS production by a significant margin and production at a value which is not similar to the truly elite tier of offensive performers who are evident in our discussions. Malone isn't there, and plenty of them produced even under similar circumstances. A season or two here and there, a match up disadvantage now and then, that's something else. That's just variability and luck. But Malone was fairly consistent in his diminished performance and inability to rise to the occasion, then capped it off in the late 90s with his Finals inadequacies. Very, very good player, one of the all-time greats to be sure, but in this discussion, his performance isn't being compared to a replacement-level player, but to his peers in the running for these same spots.

Consequently, the notion that he was elite on offense is a little ridiculous. Impressive within some constrained scope, sure, but not enough to really belong with the guys who actually came through (regardless of title/game outcome, focusing on actual player contribution). Otherwise, we should be over-dramatizing the 98 Finals because not only did Jordan drop 45 in the elimination game, not only did he hit the shot with 5 seconds to go on Russell, but he did it with Scottie missing time from a back injury and generally not playing at a particularly high level (nor being especially challenged on defense) and surrounded by little else besides roleplayers. He shouldered that offense to an absurd degree and did it better than Malone managed (and that was generally a theme).

Malone was good, a greatly valuable player, but in context? You're better off with guys who can create more effectively for themselves under pressure, which was definitely not Malone's forte, as evidenced by nearly two decades of him performing at an average-ish level. If we were to be impressed by league-average efficiency on volume, or thereabouts, we'd be giving more credit to other volume scorers who didn't really stun. In reality, Malone's offensive production compares to the average pre-New York season you got out of Carmelo Anthony which, while also impressive and still pretty good for a team in the RS, really doesn't stack up to the top tier of offensive postseason performers.

[ronnymac2]

Runoff Vote: Julius Erving

I usually need to correct for Erving's dip in stats post-'76 in my own mind and remind myself of the context and of how great he was when it mattered. After reading ThaRegul8r's post on Dr. J, I now have to make sure I don't take the rest of his ABA career for granted.

He was a monster in the 1974 title run. Erving's squad swept the second best team in the league anchored by Issel and Gilmore. In the footage I've seen of Erving, he was so athletic that many times, he functioned as a midpost-oriented Power Forward. He was a scary offensive rebounder. His first step from 12 feet away was all he needed to take flight and glide toward the basket. Defenses knew this, but Erving countered by being a great passer from the post. I think this skill goes underrated because Dr. J never even averaged 6 assists per game (NBA or ABA), but as we all know, assists aren't the best measure for the amount of opportunities one creates, and certainly not for post players.

I have no doubts about Erving's portability. He may not have a strong outside jumper like Jerry West, but he's a dominant offensive rebounder, transition player, off-ball slasher, and post-up threat. He's also a great passer and as unselfish as they come.

When he got to the NBA, his raw stats went down in the REG SEA (including minutes). This doesn't appear to be a problem in the playoffs, however. He's got 2 of the greatest NBA Finals series ever for a losing team (1977 and 1980).

Dr. J also has the longevity edge over Jerry West, and I don't find it to be an insignificant one either. What Erving did from 1973-1984 (12 seasons) is as impressive as what Jerry West did from 1962-1973 (12 seasons). The Doctor keeps playing at around an All-Star level for 2-3 more seasons, and his rookie year is clearly better than The Logo's (Erving came in as one of the most ready rookies ever, albeit in a league that was just starting to catch up to the NBA).

I've got no problem with anybody taking Jerry West. Prime-vs-prime, I definitely see the argument for West. I even see the argument peak-vs.-peak. Heck, I might actually prefer peak West myself...I'm not sure. I'll take Julius Erving overall.

[Owly]

According to RPoY, here are #1 players every year whose RPoY share for that year was at least .970. (This is equivalent to 90% of the voters agreeing the player is #1, and 10% saying he is #2).

Players not on this list: Duncan, Kobe, Karl Malone, Dirk, David Robinson, Erving, West

Moses is only dominant #1 that has not been ranked.

Summarizing the data in my previous post.

Number of Years as Dominant #1 Player
Michael Jordan 6
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 4
Bill Russell 4
Larry Bird 2
LeBron James 2
Moses Malone 2
Shaquille O'Neal 2
Hakeem Olajuwon 1
Wilt Chamberlain 1
Kevin Garnett 1
Magic Johnson 1

And assuming all eras are equal (both in terms of absolute league strength and MVP/PoY competition), that the RGMPoY project was infallible (fwiw I haven't been through it like I should, but I wouldn't just take someone else's rankings by themselves), that the degree of consensus is the only factor of importance (not the percieved margin of superiority, which whilst not unrelated to consenus isn't the same thing) and that peak is all that matters, Moses has an excellent case based on the above.

However ...
Despite perception of a 80s golden age the 80s (that is primarily 80s players) consistently brings the second fewest players to top x rankings (50s offering the fewest, 00s perhaps not really having enough lists and still not quite having all primarily 00 based players retired; but I'm confident it has come off well so far and will continue to do so). Whilst Magic and Bird arrived the rosters didn't magically and massively turn over from the apparently drug addled, problematic late 70s.

But I whilst I can live with romanticisation of the 80s whilst not necessarily agreeing with it, the MVP contention is something I will raise (again). I've tried it before here I'll take a different angle with you. When's a players prime? 25-31 (with 28 as the middle)? Here's the guys who should be peaking to compete with Moses in his "dominant" seasons. http://bkref.com/tiny/zBS9M (I've looked at WS/48 leaders too)

Early prime (25,26): Bird, Dantley, Moncrief ('83), Marques Johnson, Sikma ('82)

Peak or near (27, 28, 29): Gervin ('82), Parish (productivity peak, but limited minutes due to foul trouble), English, Gus Williams, Sikma ('83, actually worse than '82)

Late prime (30, 31): Erving ('82), Gervin ('83)

Moses was competing at his peak with guys who were at the start or end of their prime, outside their prime (Magic, KAJ), or of those who were actually peaking, players who aren't top 30 all-time (Gervin might rate the highest, based on the last list and recent published lists around mid-30s though depending on weightings of D, he could drop).

I suspect most participants believe their choice (and speaking for myself, at I'd think at, off the top of my head least the 6 of the following guys) could have collared, or at very least would have warranted, decisive MVP/PoY decisions had their peak came at that point in place of Moses.

His metrics suggest he was the best player in the league in those years but not overwhelmingly so (Erving close in '82, Moncrief, Bird to a lesser degree Magic in '83). Even if that was a particularly difficult era to put up outstanding metrics (and I don't know if it was, and if seemed to be, which it admittedly does somewhat look, how you would distinguish it being difficult from players just not being able to do it) many other candidates stack up favourably in terms of their peak metrics.

And then theres longevity. Whilst in raw career years or minutes played Moses has excellent longevity the standard across those years varies hugely. Whilst all but 4 years of Karl Malones career were all-star years (not counting the lockout year here, because whilst technically there wasn't a game, he was the MVP, he was going to be there) and a further one would have warrented being one in '03 but for conference allignment (Duncan, Nowitzki, Garnett, Marion and Webber the (voted) forwards in the West; Carter (forward?), J O'Neal, Antoine Walker and Jamaal Mashburn were the forwards in the East) actually you'd think Malone would have got in either because he was better than Webber that year anyway or on a career achievement thing, maybe it was put out that he didn't want to go and was left off the ballot. Anyway, massive digression aside, the point is he maintained his high standard, stats wise, accolade wise, however you want to measure it for a very long time. And he's the extreme example but other than Dr J the candidates here generally maintained their peak (and Dr J had 2 strong primes, just oddly seperate). Moses had a 5 year spell as a top 5 guy (admittedly at the top of that 5 for at least a couple of those years) had a peripheral comeback year in '85, then maybe top 10 in '84 and '87 then a whole bunch of not elite player years. He wasn't bad but he wasn't consistently excellent in career Win Shares NBA/ABA combined he's behind K Malone, Stockton, Gilmore, narrowly behind Nowitzki and Erving and narrowly ahead of Robinson and Barkley. Make it NBA only and he "overtakes" Erving and Gilmore, but falls behind Robinson, Barkley and Reggie Miller and is close to West. Use hpanic7342's career Hollinger EWA varient (with defensive adjustments, playoff adjustments and era adjustment - more recent being better; list being made circa 2009) and Moses is behind Robinson, Malone, Erving, Barkley and narrowly behind Nowitzki (and Ewing and Gilmore again) and fairly narrowly ahead of West. Not that any one of these is perfect but we're getting an idea that career value added doesn't necessarily favour Moses.

And as noted by others if you want dominance there's Mikan who gives metrics and 7 championships in 8 years.

[ceiling raiser]

Should also be pointed out that only 59 players in NBA history average 20+ ppg for their career, AND DRB% has only been around since 1971, so old-timers don't show up. The whole 20+ppg on 20% DRB% is misleading.

Had a little while to kill, so thought I'd see what I could come up with here...

Well here are files for TRB% for players in the shot-clock era and pre-B-R (I put these together a while ago using TrueLAfan's method on the stats board):

Season - http://www11.zippyshare.com/v/84197250/file.html
Playoffs - http://www11.zippyshare.com/v/21886067/file.html (didn't use this here, but I figured I'd re-upload both together)

Assuming 30% of rebounds are offensive (which B-R and most of these studies generally do), that means the following additional players would qualify (TRB% in parentheses, needs to be >14.28):

54-55 - Johnston (17.88), Pettit (19.04)
55-56 - Johnston (15.33), Lovellette (18.46), Pettit (18.44), Schayes (16.36)
56-57 - Johnston (15.42), Lovellette (15.92), Pettit (18.51), Schayes (15.70)
57-58 - Pettit (18.27)
58-59 - Baylor (14.87), Pettit (16.57), Schayes (14.59)
59-60 - Baylor (14.87), Chamberlain (20.28), Lovellette (15.61), Naulls (15.08), Pettit (17.82)
60-61 - Baylor (17.35), Chamberlain (20.68), Howell (14.59), Pettit (18.65),
61-62 - Baylor (16.46), Bellamy (17.71), Chamberlain (19.96), Pettit (17.46)
62-63 - Baylor (14.35), Bellamy (17.36), Chamberlain (20.58), Pettit (16.61)
63-64 - Bellamy (16.35), Chamberlain (19.84), Pettit (16.26)
64-65 - Bellamy (14.82), Chamberlain (19.97 SFW/20.57 PHI), Lucas (18.97), Pettit (15.05)
65-66 - Beaty (14.99), Bellamy (15.12 BAL/15.94 NYK), Chamberlain (20.42), Lucas (19.31)
66-67 - Chamberlain (21.28)
67-68 - Chamberlain (20.11), Lucas (18.86), Reed (16.35), Thurmond (19.46)
68-69 - Chamberlain (20.35), Hayes (15.08), Reed (17.31), Thurmond (17.70)
69-70 - Abdul-Jabbar (15.31), Cunningham (15.30), Hayes (15.74), Reed (17.43), Thurmond (17.21)

#times with 20 ppg and 14.28 TRB%:

Abdul-Jabbar - 1 (15.31) [30.4ppg career]
Baylor - 5 (14.35, 14.87, 14.87, 16.46, 17.35) [27.4ppg career]
Beaty - 1 (14.99) [16.0ppg career, 17.1 including ABA]
Bellamy - 5 (14.82, 15.12 BAL/15.94 NYK, 16.35, 17.36, 17.71 [20.1ppg career]
Chamberlain - 10 (19.84, 19.96, 19.97 SFW/20.57 PHI, 20.11, 20.28, 20.35, 20.42, 20.58, 20.68, 21.28) [30.1ppg career]
Cunningham - 1 (15.30) [20.8ppg career, 21.2 including ABA]
Hayes - 2 (15.08, 15.74) [21.0ppg career]
Howell - 1 (14.59) [18.7ppg career]
Johnston - 3 (15.33, 15.42, 17.88) [19.4pgg career]
Lovellette - 3 (15.61, 15.92, 18.46) [17.0ppg career]
Lucas - 3 (18.86, 18.97, 19.31) [17.0ppg career]
Naulls - 1 (15.08) [15.8ppg career]
Pettit - 11 (15.05, 16.26, 16.57, 16.61, 17.46, 17.82, 18.27, 18.44, 18.51, 18.65, 19.04) [26.4ppg career]
Reed - 3 (16.35, 17.31, 17.43) [18.7ppg career]
Schayes - 3 (14.59, 15.70, 16.36) [18.5ppg career]
Thurmond - 3 (17.21, 17.70, 19.46 [15.0ppg career]

A bunch of guys are eliminated by the career ppg requirement, leaving:

Abdul-Jabbar - 1 (15.31) [30.4ppg career]
Baylor - 5 (14.35, 14.87, 14.87, 16.46, 17.35) [27.4ppg career]
Bellamy - 5 (14.82, 15.12/15.94, 16.35, 17.36, 17.71 [20.1ppg career]
Chamberlain - 10 (19.84, 19.96, 19.97/20.57, 20.11, 20.28, 20.35, 20.42, 20.58, 20.68, 21.28) [30.1ppg career]
Cunningham - 1 (15.30) [20.8ppg career, 21.2 including ABA]
Hayes - 2 (15.08, 15.74) [21.0ppg career]
Pettit - 11 (15.05, 16.26, 16.57, 16.61, 17.46, 17.82, 18.27, 18.44, 18.51, 18.65, 19.04) [26.4ppg career]

So at most there would be 7 more guys post shot-clock (I don't have a file for before 54-55, and without one possessions are inconsistent, though if someone wants to add to this list that's fine with me). A few of them are locks (Kareem, Wilt, Hayes, Pettit). The remaining guys are interesting:

Baylor - 14.87, 14.87, 17.35, 16.46, 14.35, 13.05, 13.18, 12.79, 13.43, 13.41, 11.46, 11.95, 8.6 (B-R), 10.6 (B-R)
Bellamy - 17.71, 17.36, 16.35, 14.82, 15.12/15.94, 15.08, 15.64, 15.42/15.31, 17.04/17.00, 16.5 (B-R), 16.1 (B-R), 16.4 (B-R), 15.3 (B-R), 17.9 (B-R)
Cunningham - 11.02, 10.88, 10.70, 13.42, 15.30, 13.7 (B-R), 14.3 (B-R), 16.0 (B-R, ABA), 14.7 (B-R, ABA), 12.9 (B-R), 11.1 (B-R)

I think Baylor and Bellamy make it, Cunningham comes up short. I'm not sure how B-R calculates career TRB%, but just weighting by games played, here are the career TRB% for these seven guys:

Abdul-Jabbar - 15.7
Baylor - 13.8
Bellamy - 16.1
Chamberlain - 20.1
Cunningham - 12.7 (13.2 including ABA)
Hayes - 15.6
Pettit - 17.6

Actually, turns out Baylor doesn't make it. Neither does Cunningham. But we can safely add Abdul-Jabbar, Bellamy, Chamberlain, Pettit to the list (actually, Hayes is already on the list, not sure why Kareem isn't...maybe B-R zeroes out those seasons when calculating for searches?) to bring the total up to 15 in league history.

What about pre-shot-clock, if we ignore possessions? Well, only three guys averaged 20.0ppg for their careers through 53-54: Mikan (24.3, 23.1 career, 22.6 including NBL), Groza (22.5), and Arizin (21.3, 22.8 career). I can't comment on Mikan (13.4rpg over his last 5 seasons) and Groza (10.7rpg in his second season) since we don't have rebounds for the entirety of their careers. Gun to my head though, Mikan makes it. Most likely though, Arizin wouldn't make it onto that list. Over the last 8 seasons of his career, he didn't have a single 20ppg/14.28TRB% season. Pre-shot-clock he averaged 10.6rpg, but I don't think it's enough to put him over.

[magicmerl]

My runoff vote is for DrJ.

Both have their arguements based on basketball lore (Jerry is the NBA logo, DrJ was Jordan before Jordan came along). I'm not singularly fixated on scoring, but I find Erving's scoring 36pp100 to be more impressive than Jerry's 28pp100, when they scored with similar efficiency. I'm also a fan of his excellent rebounding stats for a small forward.

Edit: I've since discovered a defect in the per100 stats for DrJ, where the ABA stats are incredibly inflated when aggregated into the career total. DrJs career PtsPer100 is actually 30.0, a significant drop from 36.0.

[ronnymac2]

In the 1984 season, 33-year-old Julius Erving played 77 games and played 34.8 MPG. He averaged 1.8 blocks and 1.8 steals. That is one of the most incredible stats I've ever seen.

[ceiling raiser]

In the 1984 season, 33-year-old Julius Erving played 77 games and played 34.8 MPG. He averaged 1.8 blocks and 1.8 steals. That is one of the most incredible stats I've ever seen.

Here's another fun one (I lowered the MPG as much as possible):

http://bkref.com/tiny/qoFba

[Basketballefan]

I didn't get a chance to vote before the run-off but these 2 were my candidates anyhow. I came in leaning West but now i'm more convinced that DR J was better and will vote him. People raive about West's scoring efficiency but he's a career 55TS% in the regular season and 54 tS% in the postseason. That is decent for the volume he scored on but it's not exactly Barkley Efficient. And yes Pace does inflate his numbers at least a little whether people admit it or not. I think Dr J was more well rounded he was putting up 28+ ppg 11-12 rebounds, 4-5 assists with excellent defense in his ABA seasons. Yes West was the better scorer and playmaker but they didn't record turnovers back then so who's to say he wasn't averaging 4 TO per game along with his 6-7 assists? And when push comes to shove Dr J has longevity as well as accolades over him.

[Baller2014]

Adjust for pace and Jerry West's playoff scoring is below both Dr J and K.Malone. I would imagine it's below Barkley and Dirk too (and maybe D.Rob). Jerry West's scoring is being massively oversold because nobody voting for him is adjusting for pace in the comparisons.

[Owly]

In the 1984 season, 33-year-old Julius Erving played 77 games and played 34.8 MPG. He averaged 1.8 blocks and 1.8 steals. That is one of the most incredible stats I've ever seen.

Here's another fun one (I lowered the MPG as much as possible):

http://bkref.com/tiny/qoFba

Take it down to 1000 career minutes and you get 3 others

Spoiler:

Renaldo Balkman
Carey Scurry
Draymond Green

http://bkref.com/tiny/I6afq

[ronnymac2]

Draymond Green baby!

And former Knick Renaldo Balkman...SMH

[Baller2014]

My runoff vote is for DrJ.

Both have their arguements based on basketball lore (Jerry is the NBA logo, DrJ was Jordan before Jordan came along). I'm not singularly fixated on scoring, but I find Erving's scoring 36pp100 to be more impressive than Jerry's 28pp100, when they scored with similar efficiency. I'm also a fan of his excellent rebounding stats for a small forward.

Merl, do you have the per 100 scoring stats for West for the playoffs, from 65-70?

[tsherkin]

Adjust for pace and Jerry West's playoff scoring is below both Dr J and K.Malone. I would imagine it's below Barkley and Dirk too (and maybe D.Rob). Jerry West's scoring is being massively oversold because nobody voting for him is adjusting for pace in the comparisons.

Right, but you're also ignoring that he was a) a second option b) a primary playmaker later in his career c) taking about as many shots as you see from a good many perimeter scorers today and d) not really taking shots that he'd have difficulty getting in today's environment.

Pace adjustment for scoring is a useful tool, but must be considered in context as well.

If West were ported to the modern environment, the mid-to-high 90s paces we see now would not make life harder for him, it would just increase his usage rate were he to maintain the same volume. In era, he was taking and making jumpers which he'd not be denied if he had ball control coming over the time line. I understand that you're hot to undermine him, but he was a career 20.4 FGA/g player who peaked at 23..9 FGA/g in 41.9 mpg.

Since the end of the 04 season, we've seen 17 player-seasons of someone playing 1,000+ minutes and taking 21 FGA/g. Wade once, McGrady twice, 3 from Lebron, 2 from AI, 1 from Monta Ellis, 4 from Melo and the rest from Kobe (4).

It's not impossible or out of sorts for a primary ball-handling guard to shoot that much even today. Kobe did it in 2012 and Melo has done it in both 2013 and 2014. If he wants the shots, they are present and available, particularly given his propensity to loose from deep.

You're overvaluing pace as an impact component of his scoring, particularly since you're baldly ignoring the presence of Baylor depressing West's shooting volume and then using that deflated volume to criticize him after further deflating his volume without consideration for context.

[ceiling raiser]

I didn't get a chance to vote before the run-off but these 2 were my candidates anyhow. I came in leaning West but now i'm more convinced that DR J was better and will vote him. People raive about West's scoring efficiency but he's a career 55TS% in the regular season and 54 tS% in the postseason. That is decent for the volume he scored on but it's not exactly Barkley Efficient. And yes Pace does inflate his numbers at least a little whether people admit it or not. I think Dr J was more well rounded he was putting up 28+ ppg 11-12 rebounds, 4-5 assists with excellent defense in his ABA seasons. Yes West was the better scorer and playmaker but they didn't record turnovers back then so who's to say he wasn't averaging 4 TO per game along with his 6-7 assists? And when push comes to shove Dr J has longevity as well as accolades over him.

Well, perhaps. I put this together last year, it contains the median TS% for guards/forwards/centers who played at least 41g and 24mpg (so I could get numbers for players one would consider starters):

Code: Select all

Season   League   gTSA   gTSA   gTSA
1955   NBA   13.3   14.1   14.4
1956   NBA   12.4   14.2   15.9
1957   NBA   12.8   14.9   14.0
1958   NBA   14.1   17.8   16.5
1959   NBA   13.0   19.1   15.2
1960   NBA   13.4   22.2   15.2
1961   NBA   15.3   22.1   15.6
1962   NBA   14.8   16.4   17.9
1963   NBA   13.5   16.7   16.7
1964   NBA   12.3   16.8   16.7
1965   NBA   14.7   15.7   15.3
1966   NBA   18.7   14.7   14.8
1967   NBA   16.4   16.3   16.1
1968   NBA   16.8   15.3   15.6
1969   NBA   17.0   15.6   14.3
1970   NBA   17.2   15.3   13.3
1971   NBA   17.0   14.2   16.3
1972   NBA   14.7   15.7   14.7
1973   NBA   15.5   15.0   13.8
1974   NBA   16.2   15.1   12.9
1975   NBA   14.6   12.8   10.7
1976   NBA   15.7   12.5   14.2
1977   NBA   15.2   13.8   11.5
1978   NBA   14.4   13.0   13.0
1979   NBA   15.1   14.7   14.2
1980   NBA   13.8   13.8   13.1
1981   NBA   13.4   13.3   13.2
1982   NBA   11.6   14.0   11.7
1983   NBA   14.0   14.7   12.9
1984   NBA   12.6   14.8   12.6
1985   NBA   13.4   15.3   12.1
1986   NBA   12.4   15.1   13.1
1987   NBA   13.5   14.4   13.0
1988   NBA   13.2   14.5   11.9
1989   NBA   14.3   13.8   12.5
1990   NBA   13.5   15.0   12.6
1991   NBA   13.5   14.0   11.2
1992   NBA   13.7   13.2   12.6
1993   NBA   13.6   13.9   12.8
1994   NBA   13.6   12.5   12.7
1995   NBA   12.9   13.2   10.7
1996   NBA   12.6   12.3   12.5
1997   NBA   13.6   12.1   13.8
1998   NBA   11.9   12.6   12.7
1999   NBA   12.3   11.9   11.1
2000   NBA   12.9   12.7   10.6
2001   NBA   12.7   12.2   10.3
2002   NBA   12.8   11.6   10.6
2003   NBA   13.0   12.5   9.7
2004   NBA   13.0   12.6   9.4
2005   NBA   12.2   12.8   9.2
2006   NBA   11.9   12.8   10.4
2007   NBA   13.1   13.0   10.4
2008   NBA   12.0   13.4   10.3
2009   NBA   12.3   13.3   10.3
2010   NBA   12.3   12.7   11.1
2011   NBA   12.5   11.9   9.1
2012   NBA   11.7   12.1   11.3
2013   NBA   12.8   11.5   11.0
1968   ABA   16.1   16.3   12.8
1969   ABA   18.4   15.4   11.2
1970   ABA   13.9   15.3   13.2
1971   ABA   17.3   13.8   13.9
1972   ABA   15.3   14.3   15.0
1973   ABA   13.8   12.0   14.2
1974   ABA   11.9   14.2   12.9
1975   ABA   12.9   15.1   14.2
1976   ABA   16.1   13.2   15.2

So guards did take more shots when West was around on average (12.3-18.7, 13.4-17.2 if you throw out high/low years). Even in the seasons with fewer TSA among starters though, he still put up pretty decent volume. If he had the range to hit threes, he might be able to offset the difference due to pace/playstyle.

Rebounds and blocks would drop, yes, but assists might not since scorekeepers are more lenient today. His efficiency would still be good, and he was long/athletic enough to get steals.

[Doctor MJ]

OK, I have the votes as follows:

9 Jerry West (penbeast0, RayBan-Sematra, ShaqAttack3234, ardee, batmana, RSCD3_, tsherkin, HeartbreakKid, Quotatious)

5 Karl Malone (Baller2014, FJS, trex_8063, ronnymac2, magicmerl)

6 Julius Erving (Warspite, john248, drza, Dhodgkins, SactoKingsFan, Clyde Frazier)

2 Moses Malone (DannyNoonan1221, DQuinn 1575)

2 Dirk Nowitzki (rich 316, fpliii)

And Julius Erving leaps over Karl Malone to move into the runoff.

One good thing, the issues of era backlash and statistical inflation cut both ways in this debate so . . .

The Doctor v. The Logo

Fascinating that Malone made the runoff last thread but not this one. Pretty sure that's the first time we've seen that.

In terms of whether I think that's right in terms of my rankings, to me it's all tough to say. To be honest I"m having a tough time deciding just how much of a longevity edge Malone has, or rather how big that sways my comparison.

In terms of my fandom though, the switch makes me happy. I love me some Erving. So nice to see people recognizing how exceptional he was.

[Baller2014]

Realbig3 forgot to vote this time around, and a lot of Dr J voters didn't get around to voting at #13 (or he might have been chosen ahead of Malone).

Anyway, I agree that it's reasonable to argue West might be more valuable today. He could hit the 3 for one thing (I'm a lot less convinced about his D at the 1 spot, or even the 2 spot today). That said, people have quoted his stats verbatim, and it's annoying, because they obviously can't be taken literally. People spent ages telling me West was a far superior playoff scorer to Karl Malone... except when we give them an adjustment so they have the same number of shots West scores less than Malone or Dr J on worse efficiency. So while West beats his regular season self in the playoffs, he's still worse than the playoff versions of K.Malone and Dr J.

It is theoretically possible to shoot close to the amount West actually did (some years) in the modern setting... it's just that when it happens it's invariably a bad thing. It tends to happen either in cases where the player has no help on a bad team (e.g. T-Mac in Orlando), or the player is determined to shoot that much irrespective of whether it's in the flow of the offense and advisable (e.g. Kobe). If West was on successful teams today he'd never be asked to shoot that much. Clyde posted a table on page 10 suggesting with pace adjustment West would be shooting 17 shots in the modern game through his prime (2 less than Malone). I'm not sure where Merl's figures are from, but he cited West as scoring 28pp100. Karl Malone's playoff prime sees him get between 31 and 38 pp100, closer to 38 on average than 31, so he's well ahead. Ditto Dr J at 36.

[ThaRegul8r]

People raive about West's scoring efficiency but he's a career 55TS% in the regular season and 54 tS% in the postseason. That is decent for the volume he scored on but it's not exactly Barkley Efficient.

It's odd that one would expect a guard to be "Barkley efficient." Jordan, the consensus GOAT, wasn't Barkley efficient, yet I'm 100% certain that if I go back to the #1 thread that I won't see that being held against him.

[tsherkin]

It is theoretically possible to shoot close to the amount West actually did (some years) in the modern setting... it's just that when it happens it's invariably a bad thing. It tends to happen either in cases where the player has no help on a bad team (e.g. T-Mac in Orlando), or the player is determined to shoot that much irrespective of whether it's in the flow of the offense and advisable (e.g. Kobe). If West was on successful teams today he'd never be asked to shoot that much.

Well, that ignores Jordan, and it ignores Kobe's good years... and it ignores Melo. And it ignores Lebron. And it ignores that West was never a guy who shot a ton when he didn't have to, especially since he was both a willing and highly capable primary playmaker. Essentially, you're juggling narratives to try and diminish West. It's very clear that it is possible West might be asked to shoot that much.

Keep in mind that we've looked at FGA/g. West was a career 39 mpg player, so and the 18.7 FGA36 he averaged was not at ALL out of line from what we see in contemporary volume scorers. You're deluding yourself from personal distaste for the player/era/whatever if you don't think a primary perimeter scorer can get 18-19 FGA/g in the modern era.

90 player-seasons from 05-14.... Westbrook averaged 18.7 FGA/g in 2013 and 19.2 in 2012, averaging around 35 mpg both years. Wade shot 18.2+ FGA/g from 07-11. Jason Richardson (!!) managed it in 05 and 06. Michael Redd, 05-07. Pierce, 06 and 07. McGrady, 05-08 (all Houston, not Orlando, remember). Joe Johnson, 07-10. Lebron, 05-12. Iverson, 05-08. Danny Granger, 09 and 10. Ellis, 10 and 11. Durant, 09-14 (streak ongoing). Kobe, Vince, Arenas, Melo, Ray Ray... and we're not even counting bigs who did it in that same time frame.

If you limit it to 35-40 mpg to eliminate crazy minutes-played, there are still 63 player seasons. The really good scorers are asked to shoot a lot, so it happens. And sometimes it happens on bad teams as well. It's definitely not legit to trivialize that shooting volume to situations of poor roster support and gunners, because that's not accurate, even in the most current period of NBA history. It's not super common, granted, but that is far from the same thing.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Jerry West

So here's the thing, consider this analysis:

How many seasons did a player have with playoff WS/48 of .18 or higher?

For the two players in question here:

Jerry West 10
Julius Erving 5

In case your wondering, 10 is the record.

Now, before I advance this let's note my cherry picking here. I basically looked at West's career and saw 10 great playoffs, and decided to see where folks stacked up. In that sense this is totally biased toward West. I would actually encourage people to post other stuff that goes against this, even if it has a similar bias toward Erving, so long as they don't try to sneak it in.

Also, this might help, or it might hurt West: He shares that record with 3 guys: Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, and...Reggie Miller. As I'm not advocating for Miller here that puts West in company with a guy clearly lower than Erving, and so this makes it all the more clear that I wouldn't use this stat alone to pick West. (That said, as some of you may know, I'm considerably more impressed with Miller than many.)

Here's the reason I bring it up: People mention Erving's longevity edge, and yet if we look at something like this, it becomes tempting to give West the longevity edge.

To get into more specifics:

Erving has the peak edge ('76 Erving kills West)
Erving has the traditional longevity edge in terms of just lasting and playing longer.

but West has the prime edge. He was the one providing reliable domination.

From another perspective: Only one time did Erving break the .18 threshold after the age of 26, and that one time his number was .185. In other words, for whatever reason, Erving was basically done being a player on that level after a certain age, that wasn't very old. By contrast, West was still getting better well after that age.

I'm still trying to keep my eyes open here, but it's really tough for me to side again West here.

Also because it makes sense to ask, here's what some other guys we've been talking about look like - as noted, this is obviously not the end all be all, and I welcome people to point out different ways to look at it. Know that I'm not trying to rig this thing toward West though, Dr. J is my namesake, the guy I patterned my look after (beard and afro - though I'm not black so, y'know, doing the best I can) and the one I'm partial to.

Malone 4 times
Nowitzki 8
Robinson 8
Moses 4
Barkley 8