RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1 

Post#261 » by Outside » Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:49 pm

oaktownwarriors87 wrote:
Outside wrote:
lorak wrote:
Not true. According to Dipper's research (and mine stat tracking confirms that) KAJ shot 56% from skyhook. That gives 1,09 ppp. Curry has much more deadliest shot, as his three pointers give 1,31 ppp.


Kareem's hook was the most reliable and productive go-to shot in NBA history. He could get a quality shot off at any time against any defense. He needed the barest minimum of space to pivot and elevate with it. He could shoot it with either hand out to mid-range distance. You couldn't hack-a-Shaq him, because he shot 72% at the line.

Curry's three is more valuable, but he can be smothered by multiple defenders. A good chunk of Curry's value is in drawing the defense to him to create space and opportunities for others, and that takes time on the clock, which isn't always available, and relies on quality teammates to cash in those opportunities he creates. There's nothing wrong with being unselfish and leaning on quality teammates -- every great team needs them -- but what I'm talking about (and I think others are talking about with references like "deadliest shot") is Kareem being the most productive, reliable, unstoppable go-to guy in league history.


Most reliable and unstoppable? Is this a joke?

Peak Curry averaged 42.5 points on 28.6 FGA per 100 possessions.
Peak KAJ averaged 33.4 points on 27.1 FGA per 100 possession.

Curry is able to get his shot off at a higher rate while being much, much more efficient.

By "productive, reliable, unstoppable go-to guy," what referring to is the scenario where you absolutely must have a bucket, such as at the end of the game, and the defense knows who the most dangerous option is and loads up to stop that player. If that player is Kareem, as long as you can get him the ball, he can pivot and get off a skyhook against the defense, with either hand, even if double- or triple-teamed, and he is exceptionally accurate with it.

If that player is Curry and the defense double- or triple-teams him, his odds of getting the shot off are much lower. Yes, Curry has a remarkably quick release, and yes, three is more than two, but it's also true that a significant portion of Curry's value is that he draws those double-teams far out on the court and is then willing and able to pass to a teammate who is either open himself or can take advantage of a 4-on-3 to get a quality shot.

Curry is great, my favorite current player, and I'll argue that he's more valuable to the Warriors than Durant, but for all his greatness, he's only 6-3, and he can't get his shot off against any defense. His outstanding ballhandling, motor, IQ, and killer instinct mean that he takes advantage of any weakness by the defense to either get himself open to receive a pass or juke the defender to create the small opening he needs to get his shot off, but even he can't consistently beat double-teams. If the defense doubles him, as the Cavs have consistently for the past three seasons, then he'll still get decent scoring production, but he also understands that the offense will be more productive if he allows KD or Klay or whomever to have an open shot or go against a single defender than if Curry keeps forcing shots up against the double-team.

For Kareem, a double-team was just another possession, and being 7-2, needing minimal space to rise into his hook shot, and having such a high release point away from the primary defender meant that he could always get off that shot. Once he had the ball, there was almost nothing the defense could do to stop the shot. You can't say that for Curry.

Peak production and efficiency are a different conversation. Curry's 2015-16 regular season was one for the ages, and his combination of range, accuracy, and volume has warped defenses and warped the notion of what three-point shooting can do to the game. I love me some Steph. But if I need a bucket and need it now, Kareem is the most unstoppable option the game has ever seen.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1 

Post#262 » by oaktownwarriors87 » Tue Aug 1, 2017 3:47 am

Outside wrote:as long as you can get him the ball


This says it all. He needs to be set up. Like Kevin Durant, he needs someone to get him the ball.

Give the ball to a guy like Curry, Jordan, or Kobe and it doesn't matter where they get it... they will get you that bucket.

Curry got his shots off at a higher rate and with better efficiency.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1 

Post#263 » by wojoaderge » Tue Aug 1, 2017 4:12 am

oaktownwarriors87 wrote:Curry got his shots off at a higher rate and with better efficiency.

lower percentage
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1 

Post#264 » by 70sFan » Tue Aug 1, 2017 7:39 am

wojoaderge wrote:
oaktownwarriors87 wrote:Curry got his shots off at a higher rate and with better efficiency.

lower percentage


If you need 2 points, Kareem's skyhook will give you 2 points at 55-60% chance.
If you need 3 points, Curry's three point will give you 3 points at 40-45% chance.

Curry is more efficient in this situation but it doesn't matter. I definitely agree with wojoaderge. Kareem is more effective, Curry is more efficient. Also, Kareem shot so many game winners that I don't doubt he would find the way to get the ball. In 1974 finals he actually beat Celticz defenders off the dribble with his famous skyhook.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1 

Post#265 » by oaktownwarriors87 » Tue Aug 1, 2017 3:42 pm

70sFan wrote:
wojoaderge wrote:
oaktownwarriors87 wrote:Curry got his shots off at a higher rate and with better efficiency.

lower percentage


If you need 2 points, Kareem's skyhook will give you 2 points at 55-60% chance.
If you need 3 points, Curry's three point will give you 3 points at 40-45% chance.

Curry is more efficient in this situation but it doesn't matter. I definitely agree with wojoaderge. Kareem is more effective, Curry is more efficient. Also, Kareem shot so many game winners that I don't doubt he would find the way to get the ball. In 1974 finals he actually beat Celticz defenders off the dribble with his famous skyhook.


More effective? Curry literally scored 9.1 more points per 100 possessions on 1.5 more FGA. That's statistically more effective and more efficient.

Also,

Hakeems highest ever 2P% was 53.8%
Currys highest ever 2P% was 56.6%

Hakeem had a shot that was really hard to block, but Curry has a shot that's more likely to go in. Curry is also more likely to get his shot off.

Statistically, there is no argument for Hakeem.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1 

Post#266 » by wojoaderge » Tue Aug 1, 2017 4:09 pm

oaktownwarriors87 wrote:Statistically, there is no argument for Hakeem.

Hmm. I guess they're both Muslim centers . . .
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1 

Post#267 » by Xherdan 23 » Tue Aug 1, 2017 4:13 pm

wojoaderge wrote:
oaktownwarriors87 wrote:Statistically, there is no argument for Hakeem.

Hmm. I guess they're both Muslim centers . . .


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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #1 

Post#268 » by 70sFan » Tue Aug 1, 2017 9:07 pm

oaktownwarriors87 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
wojoaderge wrote:lower percentage


If you need 2 points, Kareem's skyhook will give you 2 points at 55-60% chance.
If you need 3 points, Curry's three point will give you 3 points at 40-45% chance.

Curry is more efficient in this situation but it doesn't matter. I definitely agree with wojoaderge. Kareem is more effective, Curry is more efficient. Also, Kareem shot so many game winners that I don't doubt he would find the way to get the ball. In 1974 finals he actually beat Celticz defenders off the dribble with his famous skyhook.


More effective? Curry literally scored 9.1 more points per 100 possessions on 1.5 more FGA. That's statistically more effective and more efficient.

Also,

Hakeems highest ever 2P% was 53.8%
Currys highest ever 2P% was 56.6%

Hakeem had a shot that was really hard to block, but Curry has a shot that's more likely to go in. Curry is also more likely to get his shot off.

Statistically, there is no argument for Hakeem.


I didn't talk about Hakeem. Kareem and Hakeem are different players, you know?

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