The LeBron James All-NBA (2nd) and Luka Doncic - 24-25 Thread

[jalengreen]

Good sign of a lost argument is when a person intentionally engages with fantasy rather than reality. Lakers were viewed as a WCF shoo-in? Nobody was talking about their roster limitations before the loss (plenty of evidence against that on this thread)? Hard not to laugh. Two options are that they know reality doesn’t support their narrative so they try to warp it, or that they truly believe what they’re saying. Not sure which is worse

[TroubleS0me]

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[OhayoKD]

His entire Lakers career with the exception of the 2020 postseason where he got over 4 months of rest to recuperate his body before the playoffs, he's been a shell of his prime self. The decline was in full effect starting in 2018-19 but people refused to see it. The general statistical inflation helped his case.

Lakers with Lebron 2020 -> 50-17 61 win-pace
Lakers without Lebron 2020 -> 2-2 41-win pace

Lakers with Lebron 2021 -> 30-15 54-win pace
Lakers without Lebron 2021 -> 12-15 36-win pace

Lakers without Davis 2020 -> 6-3
Lakers without Davis 2021 -> 17-15

Seems like a big impact RS player to me (and then got better in the playoffs).

He wasn't his infinitely better than MJ 2009 self but clearly bitw in 2020 following the playoffs and the best in the world in the rs for 2021 until solomon hill happened.

Actually, going into these playoffs, a large majority was operating under the belief that this Lakers team is a contender and at least a WCF shoe-in (4th in title odds overall, 2nd in the West) but after the loss to the Wolves, there are all these excu... erm explanations highlighting all the roster inadequacies. Whether Lebron himself believes the Lakers could win it all is impossible to determine...

Can you find anyone serious, or any serious reasoning, advocating that the Lakers as constructed should have been considered the fourth best team and a conference finals “shoe-in”?

Remember how the Nuggets opened the offseason as conference favourites fresh off losing a starter after a conference semifinals exit? I do.

Remember how that was immediately recognisable as absurd? I do.

Emphasising that a large majority of people believe many false or ridiculous things is not the argument against Lebron you seem to want it to be, but so long as you can conceive of something looking like a possible argument against Lebron, you will evidently use it.

Lakers were seen as cooked for the season post-trade and then considered contenders after Lebron refuted Djoker/ben taylor's dumb port theories by playing as a tertiary ball-handler/catch and shoot off-ball guy and being a top 3 player at 40 until he **** up his groin. Lakers then clutched up on the second seed and were seen as definite title contenders these playoffs in spite of lebron retweaking his groin vs the rockets. And hey that was pretty reasonable considering they were potentially embarrassing the 68-win thunder back to back before ref intervention.

The correct response to Djoker focusing on expectations instead of reality isn't denying people thought LA might have a shot. It's to point out that Jackson Hayes turned out to not be a serviceable rim-protector and Lebron heroically opted to be their makeshift center at 40, outputting more defensive impact than Michael Jordan managed at any point in his life.

Cmon Lebron fans. Does OhayoKD have to do everything for you?

[Ian Scuffling]

LOL....Well said, OhayoKD. Indeed. But, I do think both things can be true. Maybe SOME of the talking heads in the sports media thought they may be. Those people aren't too bright, however. Any reasonable thinking fan saw the gigantic limitations of this team, which were borne out in the first round.

[OhayoKD]

LOL....Well said, OhayoKD. Indeed. But, I do think both things can be true. Maybe SOME of the talking heads in the sports media thought they may be. Those people aren't too bright, however. Any reasonable thinking fan saw the gigantic limitations of this team, which were borne out in the first round.

Meh. If Jackson Hayes maintained his RS effectiveness you were probably fine. Generational offense can overcome middling defense and for a decent stretch that look like what was going to happen. Unfortunately with Lebron as the rim protector you basically punted the generational offense part and Luka quietly having his own 2011 didn't help.

[dcstanley]

Lakers underachieved this season. They didn't have a prayer of beating OKC but many projected them to advance to the second round at least. Egregious roster limitations, an offense that was never fully optimized, and a matchup that was uniquely capable of exploiting their weaknesses led to their demise. The Lakers bet on Lebron and Luka being able to beat switches and they just weren't capable of doing it.

It's hard to evaluate Lebron specifically since he was the sole rim protector on a team with porous perimeter defense.

[trickshot]

People need to differentiate support from expectation. Past the trade deadline there was no longer a point to discussing roster construction. People had to simply believe in a cinderella run or throw in the towel till summer. The Lakers expectations were redefined after every winning and losing streak so I wouldn't get hung up on what it was at any single point in time. If I could guess I think those who were high on the roster maybe didn't know Rob was not going to upgrade any of the two way players to full contracts, that the team would go into the playoffs with Alex Len as the lone big after giving Jemison and co a bigger feature in the end of season rotation. It was the equivalent of embarking on a countrywide drive with no spare tyre, no jack, no nothing. The road to a title was locked to dodging teams with true centers. Sometimes you can tell where Rob is just as inexperienced as anyone. To lose a playoff run to such a silly oversight.

[nzahir]

Watching the Rockets GS game and I just cant believe we went away from wanting to be bigger than teams

Hope we go back to it or at least have the option to be bigger

Going to be hard with no AD at the 4 and a C

But we can put an all switch lineup of

Luka, DFS, Lebron, Rui, Mobile C

Pelinka has some assets to work with this summer, dont blow this ****

Really hope Lebron takes a paycut

[Mos_Heat]

Lebron got outplayed by Julius Randle. He's clearly not a 5-10 player

Did he, though?

I mean, sure. Lebron isn't a top-5 player anymore. And probably more like top-15 overall at this point. But I don't think Randle outplayed him at all. Maybe in the final game, when he was gassed from trying to be the defensive anchor at 40, but in the series as a whole, definitely not.

I think so yes. He caused more trouble for LA defense than Lebron and was good against both him and Luka on defense

[trickshot]

Watching the Rockets GS game and I just cant believe we went away from wanting to be bigger than teams

Hope we go back to it or at least have the option to be bigger

Going to be hard with no AD at the 4 and a C

But we can put an all switch lineup of

Luka, DFS, Lebron, Rui, Mobile C

Pelinka has some assets to work with this summer, dont blow this ****

Really hope Lebron takes a paycut

I truly believe Pelinka only watches games when Lakers play. You learn from personal mistakes or experience of others and Rob only seems to know the former. That's why he keeps sending coaches to the playoffs without a 5. He held off on trading for one for the longest time because in his words he wanted to see Hayes and Wood get healthy. One of the reasons the Mark Williams trade came as late as it did. Even if JJ wanted to play small he was still a rookie coach and Rob should have been the one to know better, especially after 2 straight playoff exits to the same issue. He doesn't mind because the coaches are the ones who get all the flack.

[IG2]

His entire Lakers career with the exception of the 2020 postseason where he got over 4 months of rest to recuperate his body before the playoffs, he's been a shell of his prime self. The decline was in full effect starting in 2018-19 but people refused to see it. The general statistical inflation helped his case. People saw similar numbers and assumed a similar level of play but his impact fell off dramatically.

I mean, I would like to think this is all common sense. He was already 34 by his first Laker season and nobody's in their prime by that point (besides Karl Malone maybe). But since he was the league's best player even up until age 33 (2018), the natural inclination was to believe he continued being that guy. Those of us who followed him closely could tell he had lost a significant amount of burst come 2019 itself. I talked about it ad nauseam in this very thread during his first Laker season. It's not a coincidence his advanced stats dropped dramatically starting with that year, but he could still maintain his raw averages due to the league passing the freedom-of-movement rule in 2019, to go along with further increase in 3pt attempts and pace. Everybody's stats were inflated from 2019-2023. That's probably the biggest reason people were unwilling to buy LeBron's significant decline, but the eye test should've been damning.

Post-2018 I'd say he became more of a Top 10 guy and maintained that till about 2024. The 2020 Bubble Playoffs, of course, being the lone exception here. Physically he's just a different beast altogether in that run. The only time as a Laker he displayed his old ability. It was also his only healthy playoff run as a Laker besides 2024. That mutant body finally started breaking down from 34 onward.

The weirdest thing you see on forums like this is people calling him a top 5 player but then refusing to hold him to that standard.

Come on. Nobody was calling him Top 5 this season. It's just a strawman creepy MJ/Kobe fans use to hold him to impossible standards so they can later get their digs in. LeBron ruined their lives. I don't even think LeBron was Top 10 this season and that's ok. Nobody is at 40. The guy was top 10 from ages 34-39 and only Kareem can lay claim to something like that, but LeBron's production in his late 30's dwarfs his. Making him the guy with the GOAT longevity.

[PistolPeteJR]

His entire Lakers career with the exception of the 2020 postseason where he got over 4 months of rest to recuperate his body before the playoffs, he's been a shell of his prime self. The decline was in full effect starting in 2018-19 but people refused to see it. The general statistical inflation helped his case. People saw similar numbers and assumed a similar level of play but his impact fell off dramatically.

I mean, I would like to think this is all common sense. He was already 34 by his first Laker season and nobody's in their prime by that point (besides Karl Malone maybe). But since he was the league's best player even up until age 33 (2018), the natural inclination was to believe he continued being that guy. Those of us who followed him closely could tell he had lost a significant amount of burst come 2019 itself. I talked about it ad nauseum in this very thread during his first Laker season. It's not a coincidence at all that his advanced stats dropped dramatically starting with that year, but he could still maintain his raw averages due to the league passing the freedom-of-movement rule in 2019, to go along with further increase in 3pt attempts and pace. Everybody's stats were inflated from 2019-2023. That's probably the biggest reason people were unwilling to buy LeBron's significant decline, but the eye test should've been damning.

Post-2018 I'd say he became more of a Top 10 guy and maintained that till about 2024. The 2020 Bubble Playoffs, of course, being the lone exception here. Physically he's just a different beast altogether in that run. The only time as a Laker he displayed his old ability. It was also his only healthy playoff run as a Laker besides 2024. He became quite injury prone once he hit 34.

The weirdest thing you see on forums like this is people calling him a top 5 player but then refusing to hold him to that standard.

Come on. Nobody was calling him Top 5 this season. He wasn't even Top 10 and that's ok. He was top 10 from ages 34-39 and only Kareem can make such a claim in NBA history, but LeBron's production in his late 30's dwarfs his. Making him the guy with the GOAT longevity.

I agree with a lot of what you said, but I don’t agree that he wasn’t a top-10 player this season, playoffs (small sample size) included. What 10 players would be definitively have in front of him?

[IG2]

I agree with a lot of what you said, but I don’t agree that he wasn’t a top-10 player this season, playoffs (small sample size) included. What 10 players would be definitively have in front of him?

Jokic
Giannis
SGA
Tatum
Luka
Ant
Mitchell
Brunson
AD
Kawhi
Curry
KD
Wemby

[Djoker]

Ok here is the concrete data. Note that I included many impact metrics that like Lebron so I'm not cherrypicking by any means. If there are any you feel that I missed, please post them.

Raw ON/ON-OFF (BBR)

2019: +2.4/+8.2
2020: +9.0/+9.9
2021: +8.6/+10.6
2022: -2.1/+2.1
2023: +5.1/+8.8
2024: +4.1/+9.9
2025: -0.3/-5.3

Average: +3.6/+6.0

RAPM (The Basketball Database)

2019: 2.64 (19th)
2020: 4.78 (4th)
2021: 3.95 (8th)
2022: 0.39 (201st)
2023: 3.33 (15th)
2024: 0.60 (86th)
2025: N/A

xRAPM (xrapm.com)

2019: 5.3 (10th)
2020: 6.8 (3rd)
2021: 6.6 (1st)
2022: 5.4 (8th)
2023: 4.3 (16th)
2024: 5.1 (8th)
2025: 2.2 (50th)

Luck Adjusted-ON/OFF (The Basketball Database)

2019: 9.3 (94th percentile) ~15th
2020: 8.0 (91st percentile) ~20th
2021: 10.4 (94th percentile) ~15th
2022: 3.3 (74th percentile) ~75th
2023: 10.6 (94th percentile) ~15th
2024: -3.3 (43rd percentile) ~160th

With ~300 players per season, 94th percentile means there is roughly 15 or so players above him.

RAPTOR (NBArapm)

2019: 5.6 (16th)
2020: 7.8 (4th)
2021: 6.5 (9th)
2022: 4.7 (14th)

LEBRON (NBArapm)

2019: 4.9 (9th)
2020: 5.5 (4th)
2021: 5.3 (6th)
2022: 3.4 (14th)
2023: 4.1 (10th)
2024: 3.0 (19th)
2025: 2.3 (25th)

MAMBA (NBArapm)

2019: 6.1 (6th)
2020: 7.7 (3rd)
2021: 7.5 (2nd)
2022: 6.9 (4th)
2023: 5.9 (10th)
2024: 6.5 (5th)
2025: 2.6 (42nd)

DARKO (NBArapm)

2019: 6.0 (4th)
2020: 6.4 (2nd)
2021: 6.4 (2nd)
2022: 5.5 (3rd)
2023: 4.2 (12th)
2024: 4.6 (12th)
2025: 3.7 (12th)

Lebron James ON Court ORtg (rORtg) Regular Season / Playoffs (NBA.com)

2019: 111.6 (+1.2) / -------
2020: 114.6 (+4.0) / 118.1 (+6.7)
2021: 115.0 (+2.7) / 111.4 (+0.1)
2022: 113.2 (+1.2) / -------
2023: 118.5 (+3.7) / 114.4 (+1.1)
2024: 119.7 (+4.4) / 112.4 (-0.6)
2025: 112.7 (-1.0) / 108.7 (-2.1)

The only "top 5 offensive player" type number is the 2020 PS.

Regular Season Accolades

2019: 3rd Team, 11th in MVP
2020: 1st Team, 2nd in MVP
2021: 2nd Team, 13th in MVP
2022: 3rd Team, 10th in MVP
2023: 3rd Team, no MVP votes
2024: 3rd Team, no MVP votes

So yes 2019 is a clear season of decline. Even if we disregard the fact that he missed 27 games which is a third of the season, his average rank in all the impact metrics above is 11th. That is a massive decline from prime Lebron.

2020 is a bounceback season of sorts but it's kind of a weird year where many other stars were injured, namely Steph and Durant. Lebron finished an average of 5th in the above metrics in 2020 so you can pencil him in as top 5 but it's not super clear cut. It's not unreasonable to put five other names over him based on the regular season alone.

2021 is the year he looks pretty good with an average ranking of 6th in above metrics before the Solomon Hill injury but you can't just discount the injury. We are talking about being consistently top 5 and he wasn't top 5 for that entire regular season considering all the missed games and his play post-injury. A healthy Lebron could be top 5 but that's a hypothetical.

2022 is just a horrible down year. Nothing much to add there. Ends up 45th on average.

2023 he ends up 13th on average. Again misses a lot of games like the last few years too.

2024 he ends up 48th on average.

2025 we still don't have all the numbers because all the sites haven't been updated but he's unlikely to finish higher than in 2024.

If we look at the PS, he looks great in 2020 arguably the BITW. But he missed the playoffs completely in 2019 and 2022 and looks mediocre in 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. I would argue he isn't top 5 in any postseason as a Laker minus 2020 and the Lakers' offenses in the PS also couldn't even eclipse league average level. Either way, he definitely doesn't meet the criteria for consistently top 5.

[Djoker]

His entire Lakers career with the exception of the 2020 postseason where he got over 4 months of rest to recuperate his body before the playoffs, he's been a shell of his prime self. The decline was in full effect starting in 2018-19 but people refused to see it. The general statistical inflation helped his case. People saw similar numbers and assumed a similar level of play but his impact fell off dramatically.

I mean, I would like to think this is all common sense. He was already 34 by his first Laker season and nobody's in their prime by that point (besides Karl Malone maybe). But since he was the league's best player even up until age 33 (2018), the natural inclination was to believe he continued being that guy. Those of us who followed him closely could tell he had lost a significant amount of burst come 2019 itself. I talked about it ad nauseam in this very thread during his first Laker season. It's not a coincidence his advanced stats dropped dramatically starting with that year, but he could still maintain his raw averages due to the league passing the freedom-of-movement rule in 2019, to go along with further increase in 3pt attempts and pace. Everybody's stats were inflated from 2019-2023. That's probably the biggest reason people were unwilling to buy LeBron's significant decline, but the eye test should've been damning.

Post-2018 I'd say he became more of a Top 10 guy and maintained that till about 2024. The 2020 Bubble Playoffs, of course, being the lone exception here. Physically he's just a different beast altogether in that run. The only time as a Laker he displayed his old ability. It was also his only healthy playoff run as a Laker besides 2024. That mutant body finally started breaking down from 34 onward.

The weirdest thing you see on forums like this is people calling him a top 5 player but then refusing to hold him to that standard.

Come on. Nobody was calling him Top 5 this season. It's just a strawman creepy MJ/Kobe fans use to judge him by impossible standards so they can later get their digs in. God has LeBron ruined their lives. I don't even think LeBron was Top 10 this season and that's ok. Nobody is at 40. The guy was top 10 from ages 34-39 and only Kareem can lay claim to something like that, but LeBron's production in his late 30's dwarfs his. Making him the guy with the GOAT longevity.

Finally a common sense post.

Nothing I've been saying in this thread is really outlandish. Nor have I been calling Lebron out for underperforming. I'm simply saying that a lot of Lebron fans in this thread and elsewhere push him to a really high level (and yes there've been many Lebron top 5 posts in this thread if you scroll back) but then refuse to hold him to those lofty standards.

LOL....Well said, OhayoKD. Indeed. But, I do think both things can be true. Maybe SOME of the talking heads in the sports media thought they may be. Those people aren't too bright, however. Any reasonable thinking fan saw the gigantic limitations of this team, which were borne out in the first round.

Bookies in Vegas, ESPN talking heads, people in this thread, people in the GB... Most people believed that the Lakers would defeat the Wolves and make the WCF. Were they wrong? Sure. Are they all stupid? Doubt it. People just don't like to admit when they are wrong.

[jalengreen]

Bookies in Vegas did not believe that the Lakers were a shoo-in for the WCF, as you originally claimed. Speaking of admitting that you’re wrong..

[PistolPeteJR]

I agree with a lot of what you said, but I don’t agree that he wasn’t a top-10 player this season, playoffs (small sample size) included. What 10 players would be definitively have in front of him?

Jokic
Giannis
SGA
Tatum
Luka
Ant
Mitchell
Brunson
AD
Kawhi
Curry
KD
Wemby

I’m not taking KD, Mitchell, Curry, Brunson, or Kawhi over LeBron this season.
Kawhi barely played, the first three I think it’s clear LeBron was better, and Brunson’s defensive issues drop him down for me.

[Jaivl]

Bookies in Vegas, ESPN talking heads, people in this thread, people in the GB... Most people believed that the Lakers would defeat the Wolves and make the WCF. Were they wrong? Sure. Are they all stupid? Doubt it. People just don't like to admit when they are wrong.

ESPN talking heads, this thread and the GB Board are mostly the same -- irrational Laker homers. And bookies didn't really favour the Lakers.

[jalengreen]

According to this link:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nba/futures/eastern-western-conference-odds/

The odds and corresponding implied probability to win the WCF on April 17th were:

- Thunder: -153 (50.4%)
- Lakers: +538 (13.1%)
- Clippers: +538 (13.1%)
- Warriors: +725 (10.1%)
- Nuggets: +1383 (5.6%)
- Timberwolves: +2083 (3.8%)
- Rockets: +2400 (3.3%)
- Grizzlies: +15767 (0.5%)

And ofc, this is with the books having to factor in the fact that a Lakers team with Luka and LeBron is going to have a disproportionate amount of public money bet on them:

But as good as the Thunder are, they’ve remained a relatively unpopular choice with BetMGM players. As of April 28, Oklahoma City is still just the No. 5 most popular championship bet, trailing a few more public franchises.

By comparison, the Los Angeles Lakers and Celtics are responsible for more than one-quarter of all championship bets. The Celtics drew heavy action early as a favorite to repeat, while the Lakers have taken massive volume at BetMGM since Dallas traded Luka Dončić.

OKC’s 9.6% ticket share is likely a result of the short return and comparatively small market size. A Thunder championship would be a great result for the sportsbook; BetMGM’s largest liabilities in the futures book are the Lakers, Warriors, and Pistons.

[...]

Unsurprisingly, the market loves the Lakers, who paired LeBron James and Luka Dončić in the middle of the season. Austin Reaves gives Los Angeles a strong triumvirate, but the lack of a quality center will likely derail the run eventually. ( )

Regardless, more than 20% of the Western Conference handle is on the Lakers – more than any other team this year.

So yeah, the Lakers were viewed as among that second tier of teams in the conference behind the "okay everybody knows they're gonna win" favorites in OKC. But even with the public money boost of being, well, the Lakers, their odds didn't stand out above the rest of that tier.

[OhayoKD]

Ok here is the concrete data. Note that I included many impact metrics that like Lebron so I'm not cherrypicking by any means. If there are any you feel that I missed, please post them.

And like usual you're grouping non-impact alongside impact to muddy the waters. You're also disregarding volume.

2020 Lebron was first in RAPTOR's and MAMBA's impact component. He is third in LEBRON using WAR and based on his box-lebron being significantly lower we know again it's the made-up stuff holding him back. With the exception of basketball database, Lebron is top 2 in actual impact using rapm and of course over whole-games (which you convieneitly ignored) he looks like a bitw-level guy in the regular-season before his numbers across-the-board go up alongside his team turning into an all-time dominant one during the playoffs.

Moreover he was looking better across-the-board in 2021 with all these injured players coming back prior to solomon hill ending his prime and consistently graded out as top 4 in 2019 until getting injured on christmas.

In other words...

back season of sorts but it's kind of a weird year where many other stars were injured, namely Steph and Durant. Lebron finished an average of 5th in the above metrics in 2020 so you can pencil him in as top 5 but it's not super clear cut. It's not unreasonable to put five other names over him based on the regular season alone.

It is wildly unreasonable. And hiding behind slashlines isn't going to change that. Lebron was the 2nd best player (behind an all-time Giannis campaign) in the regular-season and then his team and he hit a completely different level in the postseason while the best player's team collapsed alongside his own production.

The "consistently top 5" part is a strawman deflecting from "never top 5 outside of the 2020 playoffs" being completely untenable for those interested in reality and winning.

It's not a coincidence his advanced stats dropped dramatically.

They dropped dramatically when Lebron came back post-groin injury in 2019 and settled at top 5 for 2020. More pertinently, considering Lebron was arguably the best defensive wing in the league during the 2020 regular season, the actual impact data had lebron as top 2 in 2020 heading into the playoffs and top 1 in 2021 preceding Solomon Hill. So I'm not really sure why you keep insisting the 2020 playoffs was the "lone exception" for Lebron being top 5.