2012-13 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[MeloMIracle]

It needs to be said that for all of Wade's struggles, his poor play isn't a big reason for why Miami is doing poorly. The Heat, while they struggled on offense throughout game 6, have played about as well as possible on offense. Their offensive rating games 1-6 is 111.6 which would have been good enough for 3rd in the league against an elite defense.

The Heat are struggling due to the structural flaws inherent on their team. They're bad at rebounding and lack true size.

Indiana isn't hanging in the series due to over-performance in the backcourt which would likely be tied to Wade's poor play/injury. They are winning because they are annihilating Miami on the offensive glass. Bosh and the Heat's front-court lack the size and strength to prevent this from happening.

These flaws are why they are not a GOAT level team and why their season long point differential do not look like that of a GOAT level team and have never looked like a GOAT level team during the 3 years.

They are obviously very good. They likely will win this series and the title but their reputation is above their level of play. Defensive rebounding matters.

The same thing happened last year, but Dwyane Wade went out of his mind. Him playing like a superstar which is what he is supposed to be doing would probably mask the heat weaknesses.

[ElGee]

I've been waiting until June to participate for fear of biasing myself with an anchor. Having just read this thread this morning, I'm glad I did because the oscillation reads like a bipolar journal. I've said this before, but if you guys are changing opinions a lot on anything that drastically in such a small sample, you have an unstable model...which is not a good thing. You don't want to say "HP stock went down today, it SUCKS!" and then say the next day "HP stock went up, put everything into HP stock!"

The first guy I want to discuss is LaMarcus Aldridge. I wrote about him in the past on my blog as a borderline top-10 player and have said he was the NBA's most underrated in the past. The advanced numbers were saying that. His game is well rounded and he's had good results on both ends of the court. He's just stuck in a situation where no one sees him and his National TV time is zilch. Yet LMA stood out in EV in the 2 years I tracked. He's been a mainstay near the top of the RAPM numbers up until last year. And his synergy figures are even better now -- I believe he was 5th in points per post this year, according to this http://blogs.trailblazers.com/Default.a ... temid=3821 He's a great pick n pop player, can stretch the floor and does really good work in isolation in the post. He's the most well-rounded and versatile he's ever been, and while he normally wouldn't be in this kind of discussion, the season is replete with injuries and thus we are moving down to a broader part of the bell curve where many guys need consideration. I like that he can play both PF and center as well.

FTR, against the top-7 defenses:
Aldridge averaged 21.1 ppg 2.3 apg 52.8% TS and 5.1 FTA/g
(Duncan averaged 16.5 ppg 2.2 apg 52.4% TS and 4.0 FTA/g FWIW)

Which means no decline against good defenses, IMO because what he brings is so well-rounded. LMA"s on/off splits were large this year: +9. And for those who don't want to be bogged down with lineup trickery, the old in/out test (in just 8 games) showed Portland to be a -1.8 SRS team with LMA and -8.0 without him.

I'm deciding between LMA and Duncan for the 5th spot, giving consideration to 2 other players (Anthony and Deron Williams). I don't see how James Harden gives a team more than Deron Williams, since they essentially play the same position and Williams does it better. Fatal broke down Harden's game before the playoffs and detailed exactly how he might struggle in a structured series, which is pretty much what happened. I didn't consider Harden a top-5 player last year and I don't think he had profound growth in his game -- he's a great PnR player, a good shooter, smart and efficient and draws contact, but he's in a system that magnifies his strengths and amplifies his stats.

EDIT: Just checked the rogue 2013 RAPM and Aldridge again in the ~4 range, next to Duncan and Westbrook.

[E-Balla]

LMA along with Conley is easily my favorite non Knick. My problem is that he didn't bring it on defense (at all - he just stopped playing), and that he didn't had the postseason to ring him up. In the regular season he was 7th/8th on my list but since the playoffs have started he's not top 10 anymore (mostly due to not playing).

[B_Creamy]

I've been waiting until June to participate for fear of biasing myself with an anchor. Having just read this thread this morning, I'm glad I did because the oscillation reads like a bipolar journal. I've said this before, but if you guys are changing opinions a lot on anything that drastically in such a small sample, you have an unstable model...which is not a good thing. You don't want to say "HP stock went down today, it SUCKS!" and then say the next day "HP stock went up, put everything into HP stock!"

The first guy I want to discuss is LaMarcus Aldridge. I wrote about him in the past on my blog as a borderline top-10 player and have said he was the NBA's most underrated in the past. The advanced numbers were saying that. His game is well rounded and he's had good results on both ends of the court. He's just stuck in a situation where no one sees him and his National TV time is zilch. Yet LMA stood out in EV in the 2 years I tracked. He's been a mainstay near the top of the RAPM numbers up until last year. And his synergy figures are even better now -- I believe he was 5th in points per post this year, according to this http://blogs.trailblazers.com/Default.a ... temid=3821 He's a great pick n pop player, can stretch the floor and does really good work in isolation in the post. He's the most well-rounded and versatile he's ever been, and while he normally wouldn't be in this kind of discussion, the season is replete with injuries and thus we are moving down to a broader part of the bell curve where many guys need consideration. I like that he can play both PF and center as well.

FTR, against the top-7 defenses:
Aldridge averaged 21.1 ppg 2.3 apg 52.8% TS and 5.1 FTA/g
(Duncan averaged 16.5 ppg 2.2 apg 52.4% TS and 4.0 FTA/g FWIW)

Which means no decline against good defenses, IMO because what he brings is so well-rounded. LMA"s on/off splits were large this year: +9. And for those who don't want to be bogged down with lineup trickery, the old in/out test (in just 8 games) showed Portland to be a -1.8 SRS team with LMA and -8.0 without him.

I'm deciding between LMA and Duncan for the 5th spot, giving consideration to 2 other players (Anthony and Deron Williams). I don't see how James Harden gives a team more than Deron Williams, since they essentially play the same position and Williams does it better. Fatal broke down Harden's game before the playoffs and detailed exactly how he might struggle in a structured series, which is pretty much what happened. I didn't consider Harden a top-5 player last year and I don't think he had profound growth in his game -- he's a great PnR player, a good shooter, smart and efficient and draws contact, but he's in a system that magnifies his strengths and amplifies his stats.

EDIT: Just checked the rogue 2013 RAPM and Aldridge again in the ~4 range, next to Duncan and Westbrook.

I'm not feeling this at all. What makes Aldridge better than, like, Bosh? Enlighten me, because like most people I've only seen him play a little more than a handful of times this season, he just seemed like a weak defense inefficient jump shooter.

[E-Balla]

Aldridge is so much better than Bosh it's insane. First off he's shooting because the coach wants him to, not be cause he's a jumpshooter. Secondly he's a pretty good defender and rebounder unlike Bosh. He also has one of the best post games in the league.

[ElGee]

I too only saw him a handful of times, so I'm not going to drive into tremendous detail. Portland did seem to hit tank mode at the end of the season, so that may have played into what GC was seeing.

First, I like the Bosh comparison. I think LMA is like a better version of Bosh. Better post. Better shooter. Probably better passer. And I think he's as capable or better defensively -- I actually think he's pretty underrated on defense. I'm not going to argue for him on the all-D team, but consider the RAPM finishes since I don't have time right now to delve into tracked data or game tape (anyone w synergy can expound):

2012 defense by RAPM
Tier 1: Duncan/Howard/Bogat/Gibson/Garnett
Tier 2: Asik, Chandler, Mbah a Moute, Aldridge, K. Thomas, Bosh

2011 RAPM
Tier 0: Garnett
Tier 1: Howard, Bogut, Duncan, J. Smith
Tier 2: Bosh, Andersen, Chandler, G. Wallace, Okafor, Aldridge

2010 RAPM
Tier 1: Bogut, Garnett, Duncan
Tier 2: Howard, Hibbert, Andersen, Mbah a Moute, Aldridge

2013 RAPM (rogue, incomplete)
Tier 0: Gibson, Garnett
Gier 1: M. Gasol, Duncan, Howard, Sanders
Tier 2: Asik, Aldridge, Splitter, Chandler

That's actually pretty consistent with how I see LMA defensively. He's capable. He can be "good." He's not the greatest on the ball but I like more of his help/global/rebounding/spacing contributions. And so while I compare TD and LMA, I have to ask is Timmy's defensive advantage enough to make up for LMA's offensive advantage? And BTW, bringing it back to Bosh, with all the injuries this year we are WAY down the bell curve, so the players are tightly packed together. A healthy Chris Bosh isn't too far behind the guys we are discussing.

[Dr Positivity]

If I'm not mistaken LMA led the league in long midrange 2s this year. His shot selection disappointingly went from the post player he'd broken out as post Roy's game, back to a jumpshooting first type. Which is why after 4 straight years in the 113-115 ORTG range he put up a league average 108. Wouldn't make my top 20.

[ElGee]

If I'm not mistaken LMA led the league in long midrange 2s this year. His shot selection disappointingly went from the post player he'd broken out as post Roy's game, back to a jumpshooting first type. Which is why after 4 straight years in the 113-115 ORTG range he put up a league average 108. Wouldn't make my top 20.

You should read the article I linked in the first post -- I don't think that's just a function of LMA settling. At least not from the games I saw. They are re-shaping the offense, and he's more versatile than he's been in the past. I think you stick him on Miami and he'd be an all-star/borderline all-nba mainstay in one of the big spots.

EDIT: He did lead the league in mid-range attempts. Percentage is a step down from the best in that area (eg Garnett) but he's still getting 78% of those assisted, which is a good thing usually, unless your coach as structured a nonsensical offense.

[B_Creamy]

Aldridge is so much better than Bosh it's insane. First off he's shooting because the coach wants him to, not be cause he's a jumpshooter. Secondly he's a pretty good defender and rebounder unlike Bosh. He also has one of the best post games in the league.

1. Coach definitely wants Bosh to shoot
2. Bosh is a better help defender than Aldridge.
3. Can't show off your post game when you take more fadeaways than Garnett. I think there was a Grantland chart that show'd he took more mid-range shots than anyone in the league. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[An Unbiased Fan]

So are we talking about the same LMA who shot 53% TS, on a 33-win(-2.52 SRS) team with the #26 defense in the NBA? Really?

As a big, aren't these things big no-nos? I won't go into my usual RAPM rant, but....

[B_Creamy]

I too only saw him a handful of times, so I'm not going to drive into tremendous detail. Portland did seem to hit tank mode at the end of the season, so that may have played into what GC was seeing.

First, I like the Bosh comparison. I think LMA is like a better version of Bosh.

I have two questions on Bosh specifically

1. Do you think Aldridge is better than Raptors Bosh?
2. How large do you think is the difference is between Bosh in 2010 and Bosh now? Or whenever you think Bosh's peak was.

Better post. Better shooter.

I read the article you posted and what I got out of it was that Aldridge is improving his mid-range game to complement his post game. I have two problems with this.

1. Instead of complementing his post game they've usurped it as his main form of offense.
2. It specifically says he's improving his mid range shot off the dribble, the worst shot in basketball.

Now while Bosh shoots a lot off the dribble he mostly takes set jumpers and much more efficiently.

Bosh: 592% TS (53% from 16-23 ft)
Aldridge: 530% TS (41% from 16-23 ft)

This doesn't factor in team roles but there is a pretty large gap in percentages for players who pretty much take the same kind of shots. (This is an area where'd I'd like to be corrected if necessary)

Add in the fact that Bosh has (some) 3 point range and I really think he has a huge edge as far as shooting. Aldridge has a better post game on the left block but I think Bosh has a better face up game when it's called upon.

Probably better passer.

While watching him I was pretty impressed by Aldridge's ability to pass out of the post to 3 point shooters. Not a perfect stat but when compared to two big men considered to be the best passers in the league he stacks up like this.

Aldridge: 1.1 APG leading to 3-pt FG
Joakim Noah: 0.7 APG leading to 3-pt FG
Marc Gasol: 0.8 APG leading to 3-pt FG

Bosh looks worse here, all I can say from watching the Heat is that they like to hot potato the ball around the perimeter to try to get the best available shot. It happens incredibly often.

Bosh isn't a great passer but he's probably slightly above average. His passes to cutters have impressed me more than a couple of times.

And I think he's as capable or better defensively -- I actually think he's pretty underrated on defense.

The RAPM numbers do make it seem like I underrated him here. But I would have to watch him more to really change my opinion. Bosh is certainly also underrated defensively by most people.

I honestly have no good explanation for his rebounding at points this season. But I honestly think he is one of the best PNR defenders in the league (disregarding the All-Star game nutmegging I guess). He's also a very good weak side defender.

You said yourself Aldridge isn't a great man defender but you like his global defensive contributions. That's where I see Bosh. Aldridge has the edge in rebounding and Bosh has the edge in PNR defense. Also consider the fact that he was probably the only capable big man on a -4.4 defense last year.

I have to ask is Timmy's defensive advantage enough to make up for LMA's offensive advantage?"

I've been a big supporter of Duncan all year as evidenced by some of the posts in this thread. It's because I think Duncan is in the absolute elite defensive tier this year. RAPM numbers support him (although Tony Parker somehow comes out better defensively?) eyetest, and team results (3rd best defense with a pretty significant lead on the 4th). If would appreciate it if you spoke on Duncans defense this year.

And yes, I definitely think Timmy's defensive advantage makes up for LMA's offensive advantage.

Don't want to write a monster post on Harden Vs. Deron but I'm interested in that and you never mentioned your number 4 pick either.

I'm not looking to win a Bosh vs. Aldridge argument, I'd like anybody to expound on what I said about him because I'd really like to know more about Aldridge as a player.

[E-Balla]

Ok I saw a lot of Portland the last 2 years (again I love watching LMA and I love Lillard too) and here's what I think about LMA:

Spoiler:

Offensively he's the best scoring big in the game now that Dirk's hurt. Now I know that statement isn't a huge leap (Wow the top scorer for bigmen is the best?) but it's important. Last season (where he was more inside and less out) he averaged 21.7 on 56 TS (+3.5). I won't speak on how he played in 2011 because I barely watch Portland that year outside of the playoffs, where he was pretty impressive offensively for half the series and finished with a decent 104 ORTG, but in 2012 I thought he was the best PF in the game outside of Dirk. He had a 113 ORTG (a result of being very stingy giving up the ball in the post). From 3-9 feet he was 52.3% (36% assisted) and from 10-16 he was 40.4% (36% assisted). Yeah that post game was flourishing. He posted up often but his most common post up play wasn't a hook. It was the rolling fade (his really didn't roll but whatever). They also ran him in the pnr a lot where he was probably the best pnr threat in the league. He finished like a slightly worse Dwight and popped like Bosh/KG. Most of the time they ran multiple screens until they freed him up to the basket for an easy finish. He didn't crash the boards much but when he did he finished those plays strong. His biggest weakness was working off the dribble from his faceup possessions. His jumpshot of the dribble is completely broken and it shows when he can't get a good first step because he's forced to throw up a brick everytime. I he could learn to shoot jumpers on the move he'd improve a lot but it was such a small percentage of his possessions that it didn't matter.

Now this season the team's identity changed completely. They got a new potential "star", a new coach and the most notable change was the team's pace. They weren't fast but prior to this year Portland was at historical levels of slow. This also meant that LaMarcus had to change his game completely.

First change was that he had less less post possessions. Posting up often leads to slow, methodical offense and the new coach wanted balance between slow, calculated offense, and fast, creative offense. LMA's percentages from 3-16 stayed relatively even to last year but he took way less shots from that range. They also changed what type of post possessions he got. He worked from 10+ feet way more than before and while his old best play was the rolling fade now he faced up a lot more. But he did improve. His jumpshot off the dribble still sucks but instead of dribbling he started using Melo's signature move (triple threat pull ups) instead. Overall the possessions were efficient but less efficient than the previous year.

The second and most notable change was in the way they ran pick and rolls. The new coach obviously loves Lillard and JJ and wants to develop them before trying to win. I say that because instead of having LMA roll off the picks for easy plays he had him pop or fade. That led to more lanes for Lillard and more space for JJ to work with. The pnr this season became a JJ/Lillard thing. I will say that it was effective but it wasn't good for LMA at all. It took him away from the basket and he led the league in midrange shots taken (while still being 42% on jumpshots).

The third change was in offensive rebounding and passing tendencies. JJ crashed the boards hard but for some reason it always seemed like LMA got back on defense super fast. Passing wise LMA went from passing to open threes to throwing the ball to cutters more often. Small changes but notable anyway.

Overall I think that his numbers will improve the second they're out of this transitional period. They clearly want Lillard to be the number one but he isn't ready yet so they're running a good offense for Lillard with LMA as the first option instead of running an offense for LMA until Lillard is ready. He's still the same 113-114 ORTG guy we saw the 3 years prior to this one if not better.

Spoiler:

Defensively LMA really reminds me of a poor man's KG. He can't block shots at all but he contests a lot of jumpers and stands strong inside. As a one-on-one defender he's amazingly fast against shorter faceup bigs and at times SFs (remember that game winning defensive play against OKC last year) but his length still allows him to guard post possessions amazingly well. Surprisingly he can't guard tall, faceup bigs though so that's a major weakness (he doesn't have the quick hands needed to disrupt their drives which leads him to play them off). His biggest skill defensively is in the pnr though. I don't think there was a better pnr defender than LMA last year. He has nearl perfect timing on all switches and being quick while still being 6-11 with a 7-4 wingspan is very helpful even when he's late.

This season he played the same way for half the year but then the tank started and the team (including him) played like complete crap on defense. I know he can do better and he has but he still loses some points for participating in the tank IMO.

On the boards he really improved though. Before he had a bad tendency of boxing out too much. At a certain point you have to realize that your the biggest player on the floor and that just covering your man isn't enough. He really improved on that though.

Again remember this is a 21/9/3 guy. That's great but his team did tank and he did help them. Maybe next year he could be top 5-10 but this season? Nah.

[E-Balla]

This doesn't factor in team roles but there is a pretty large gap in percentages for players who pretty much take the same kind of shots. (This is an area where'd I'd like to be corrected if necessary)

They play nothing alike. Bosh is a complete faceup player. LMA is a postup/pnr player. I never understood the comparison. They take shots in completely different areas (of course I'm referring to Toronto Bosh) seeing as how LMA in an offense created for him starts most of his possessions on post ups from 3-16 and Bosh starts most of his possessions from from 10-20 feet and drives all the way to the rim or pulls up. Bosh offensively was more like Amare in NY pre-Melo. Nothing like LMA though.

[B_Creamy]

Ok I saw a lot of Portland the last 2 years (again I love watching LMA and I love Lillard too) and here's what I think about LMA:

Spoiler:

Offensively he's the best scoring big in the game now that Dirk's hurt. Now I know that statement isn't a huge leap (Wow the top scorer for bigmen is the best?) but it's important. Last season (where he was more inside and less out) he averaged 21.7 on 56 TS (+3.5). I won't speak on how he played in 2011 because I barely watch Portland that year outside of the playoffs, where he was pretty impressive offensively for half the series and finished with a decent 104 ORTG, but in 2012 I thought he was the best PF in the game outside of Dirk. He had a 113 ORTG (a result of being very stingy giving up the ball in the post). From 3-9 feet he was 52.3% (36% assisted) and from 10-16 he was 40.4% (36% assisted). Yeah that post game was flourishing. He posted up often but his most common post up play wasn't a hook. It was the rolling fade (his really didn't roll but whatever). They also ran him in the pnr a lot where he was probably the best pnr threat in the league. He finished like a slightly worse Dwight and popped like Bosh/KG. Most of the time they ran multiple screens until they freed him up to the basket for an easy finish. He didn't crash the boards much but when he did he finished those plays strong. His biggest weakness was working off the dribble from his faceup possessions. His jumpshot of the dribble is completely broken and it shows when he can't get a good first step because he's forced to throw up a brick everytime. I he could learn to shoot jumpers on the move he'd improve a lot but it was such a small percentage of his possessions that it didn't matter.

Now this season the team's identity changed completely. They got a new potential "star", a new coach and the most notable change was the team's pace. They weren't fast but prior to this year Portland was at historical levels of slow. This also meant that LaMarcus had to change his game completely.

First change was that he had less less post possessions. Posting up often leads to slow, methodical offense and the new coach wanted balance between slow, calculated offense, and fast, creative offense. LMA's percentages from 3-16 stayed relatively even to last year but he took way less shots from that range. They also changed what type of post possessions he got. He worked from 10+ feet way more than before and while his old best play was the rolling fade now he faced up a lot more. But he did improve. His jumpshot off the dribble still sucks but instead of dribbling he started using Melo's signature move (triple threat pull ups) instead. Overall the possessions were efficient but less efficient than the previous year.

The second and most notable change was in the way they ran pick and rolls. The new coach obviously loves Lillard and JJ and wants to develop them before trying to win. I say that because instead of having LMA roll off the picks for easy plays he had him pop or fade. That led to more lanes for Lillard and more space for JJ to work with. The pnr this season became a JJ/Lillard thing. I will say that it was effective but it wasn't good for LMA at all. It took him away from the basket and he led the league in midrange shots taken (while still being 42% on jumpshots).

The third change was in offensive rebounding and passing tendencies. JJ crashed the boards hard but for some reason it always seemed like LMA got back on defense super fast. Passing wise LMA went from passing to open threes to throwing the ball to cutters more often. Small changes but notable anyway.

Overall I think that his numbers will improve the second they're out of this transitional period. They clearly want Lillard to be the number one but he isn't ready yet so they're running a good offense for Lillard with LMA as the first option instead of running an offense for LMA until Lillard is ready. He's still the same 113-114 ORTG guy we saw the 3 years prior to this one if not better.

Spoiler:

Defensively LMA really reminds me of a poor man's KG. He can't block shots at all but he contests a lot of jumpers and stands strong inside. As a one-on-one defender he's amazingly fast against shorter faceup bigs and at times SFs (remember that game winning defensive play against OKC last year) but his length still allows him to guard post possessions amazingly well. Surprisingly he can't guard tall, faceup bigs though so that's a major weakness (he doesn't have the quick hands needed to disrupt their drives which leads him to play them off). His biggest skill defensively is in the pnr though. I don't think there was a better pnr defender than LMA last year. He has nearl perfect timing on all switches and being quick while still being 6-11 with a 7-4 wingspan is very helpful even when he's late.

This season he played the same way for half the year but then the tank started and the team (including him) played like complete crap on defense. I know he can do better and he has but he still loses some points for participating in the tank IMO.

On the boards he really improved though. Before he had a bad tendency of boxing out too much. At a certain point you have to realize that your the biggest player on the floor and that just covering your man isn't enough. He really improved on that though.

Again remember this is a 21/9/3 guy. That's great but his team did tank and he did help them. Maybe next year he could be top 5-10 but this season? Nah.

Thanks GC . Great, detailed scouting report.

[B_Creamy]

This doesn't factor in team roles but there is a pretty large gap in percentages for players who pretty much take the same kind of shots. (This is an area where'd I'd like to be corrected if necessary)

They play nothing alike. Bosh is a complete faceup player. LMA is a postup/pnr player. I never understood the comparison. They take shots in completely different areas (of course I'm referring to Toronto Bosh) seeing as how LMA in an offense created for him starts most of his possessions on post ups from 3-16 and Bosh starts most of his possessions from from 10-20 feet and drives all the way to the rim or pulls up. Bosh offensively was more like Amare in NY pre-Melo. Nothing like LMA though.

Miami Bosh and LMA both take a ton of Pick N' Pops. I'd say they're at least a little similar.

[E-Balla]

This doesn't factor in team roles but there is a pretty large gap in percentages for players who pretty much take the same kind of shots. (This is an area where'd I'd like to be corrected if necessary)

They play nothing alike. Bosh is a complete faceup player. LMA is a postup/pnr player. I never understood the comparison. They take shots in completely different areas (of course I'm referring to Toronto Bosh) seeing as how LMA in an offense created for him starts most of his possessions on post ups from 3-16 and Bosh starts most of his possessions from from 10-20 feet and drives all the way to the rim or pulls up. Bosh offensively was more like Amare in NY pre-Melo. Nothing like LMA though.

Miami Bosh and LMA both take a ton of Pick N' Pops. I'd say they're at least a little similar.

I don't like comparing Miami Bosh to LMA because ones a third option and the others a first though.

[Doctor MJ]

I've been waiting until June to participate for fear of biasing myself with an anchor. Having just read this thread this morning, I'm glad I did because the oscillation reads like a bipolar journal. I've said this before, but if you guys are changing opinions a lot on anything that drastically in such a small sample, you have an unstable model...which is not a good thing. You don't want to say "HP stock went down today, it SUCKS!" and then say the next day "HP stock went up, put everything into HP stock!"

The first guy I want to discuss is LaMarcus Aldridge. I wrote about him in the past on my blog as a borderline top-10 player and have said he was the NBA's most underrated in the past. The advanced numbers were saying that. His game is well rounded and he's had good results on both ends of the court. He's just stuck in a situation where no one sees him and his National TV time is zilch. Yet LMA stood out in EV in the 2 years I tracked. He's been a mainstay near the top of the RAPM numbers up until last year. And his synergy figures are even better now -- I believe he was 5th in points per post this year, according to this http://blogs.trailblazers.com/Default.a ... temid=3821 He's a great pick n pop player, can stretch the floor and does really good work in isolation in the post. He's the most well-rounded and versatile he's ever been, and while he normally wouldn't be in this kind of discussion, the season is replete with injuries and thus we are moving down to a broader part of the bell curve where many guys need consideration. I like that he can play both PF and center as well.

FTR, against the top-7 defenses:
Aldridge averaged 21.1 ppg 2.3 apg 52.8% TS and 5.1 FTA/g
(Duncan averaged 16.5 ppg 2.2 apg 52.4% TS and 4.0 FTA/g FWIW)

Which means no decline against good defenses, IMO because what he brings is so well-rounded. LMA"s on/off splits were large this year: +9. And for those who don't want to be bogged down with lineup trickery, the old in/out test (in just 8 games) showed Portland to be a -1.8 SRS team with LMA and -8.0 without him.

I'm deciding between LMA and Duncan for the 5th spot, giving consideration to 2 other players (Anthony and Deron Williams). I don't see how James Harden gives a team more than Deron Williams, since they essentially play the same position and Williams does it better. Fatal broke down Harden's game before the playoffs and detailed exactly how he might struggle in a structured series, which is pretty much what happened. I didn't consider Harden a top-5 player last year and I don't think he had profound growth in his game -- he's a great PnR player, a good shooter, smart and efficient and draws contact, but he's in a system that magnifies his strengths and amplifies his stats.

EDIT: Just checked the rogue 2013 RAPM and Aldridge again in the ~4 range, next to Duncan and Westbrook.

Good to see you jump in.

I'm guessing you're purposefully starting at the low end of things just to focus the discussion on the area where you think it most fruitful and that's totally reasonable, but I do find myself wondering who is in your Top 4. In particular I wonder because I'm interested in your take on Parker vs Duncan, but then there are other guys like Curry and Gasol who've gotten a lot of discussion in here who are either above or below your consideration here which is kinda funny.

It's cool to see Aldridge get focused on. He has always been a guy whose game and impact has been sharper than what you'd expect given his general reputation and basic stats. Back when Portland was Brandon Roy's team, it was Aldridge who stood out with +/- stats, and Aldridge continued on in this way after Roy fell apart.

It's really hard for me though to see him as a Top 5 guy right now though. I'll readily admit my reticence involves more superficial reasons. This is a guy putting up meh stats on a meh team. Heck, this is a big on a godawful defensive team. I know competition is weak right now, but I'm trying to think of any time I've ever felt like someone matching that description deserved serious discussion on this rare level.

I'll also note since raw +/- gets mentioned for this year, Aldridge's teammate Lillard has better raw numbers and played more minutes. As always, raw stats are not to be trusted too far, but it would be good to see someone breakdown why it's clear cut that Aldridge is drastically more valuable than Lillard (since presumably they aren't both in the hunt for Top 5) here. I mean, clearly Aldridge is superior defensively, but what about offense?

Re: Harden vs Deron. Your wording here is pretty surprising to me. They are doing the same thing and Deron's doing it better? Harden's scoring a lot more than Deron, and doing it very effectively. Obviously they are in different offensive systems, but you'd have to make the connections for me to say that these two are absolute equivalents in role just mapped into different systems.

It probably doesn't need to be said, but I will anyway just to be clear: I recognize that Houston's fast pace is an important factor, but Deron's got not one but two teammates who are more proven as scoring options than anyone Harden has in Houston, the payroll is $30 mill higher, and a far weaker SRS. Arguments for Deron can be made I'm sure, but they are not obvious for most.

[E-Balla]

I'll also note since raw +/- gets mentioned for this year, Aldridge's teammate Lillard has better raw numbers and played more minutes. As always, raw stats are not to be trusted too far, but it would be good to see someone breakdown why it's clear cut that Aldridge is drastically more valuable than Lillard (since presumably they aren't both in the hunt for Top 5) here. I mean, clearly Aldridge is superior defensively, but what about offense?

I'll assume your just playing devil's advocate here but the main reason that LMA has a similar on/off (LMA is +9.4, Lillard is +9.1) is that the only decent bench player on the team (Meyers Leonard) backs up LMA. Every point guard but Lillard on the roster shot under 51 TS and had under a 101 ORTG. Leonard is the only bench player to acore over 51 TS. The team with Lamarcus was 32-42 (1-7 without him) and they still had Lillard in those games. Lillard averaged 17.6/3.8/7.1 with 3.8 turnovers a game and a 52 TS% on those games. In games with Lamarcus he averaged 19.2/3.1/6.4 with 2.9 turnovers a game and a 55 TS%. His game is very reliant on those jumpshots LMA hits so well.

[therealbig3]

Re: Harden vs Deron. Your wording here is pretty surprising to me. They are doing the same thing and Deron's doing it better? Harden's scoring a lot more than Deron, and doing it very effectively. Obviously they are in different offensive systems, but you'd have to make the connections for me to say that these two are absolute equivalents in role just mapped into different systems.

He probably means that they're both lead guards that are in charge of running their team's offense, and they handle the bulk of the ball handling duties.

It probably doesn't need to be said, but I will anyway just to be clear: I recognize that Houston's fast pace is an important factor, but Deron's got not one but two teammates who are more proven as scoring options than anyone Harden has in Houston

Except Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez are two of the most criticized players in the league, so it's odd to me that now you're going to imply that they're good players to have around. JJ has done a really poor job of molding his game around Deron's. Why should it be held against Deron that JJ played like crap and wasn't adjusting his game to the better player? What happened was that Deron had to change his game to fit JJ.

Now, I like Lopez a lot and think he gets unfairly criticized, but Harden has a very good team around him too. Shooters, slashers, another capable ball handler in Lin, and a really solid big man in Asik. Chandler Parsons can play btw...he was often their best player against OKC. And he has a coach that gives him free reign and has a creative offensive system.

Harden clearly has a better team around him than Deron, don't see how that's debatable. Outside of Deron and Lopez, all of the Nets players were pretty much scrubs this year.

the payroll is $30 mill higher

That's pretty irrelevant imo...everyone knows that the Nets massively overpaid for their team. It certainly proves that Houston's management is a lot better, but I'm not sure how it applies to Deron vs Harden.

and a far weaker SRS

Which can be explained by superior teammates and superior coaching, which were put in place by superior management.

[CBA]

In what way is a Asik/Parsons/Lin supporting cast better offensively than a Lopez/JJ/Wallace supporting cast? There's no way someone can watch the Rockets for a reasonable amount of time and come to the conclusion that they have anything better than mediocre offensive talent outside of Harden (and I suppose Motiejunas who barely played) - or that McHale is a good coach...