RealGM Top 100 List #13

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#281 » by ShaqAttack3234 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 9:05 am

Baller2014 wrote:Sure. But K.Malone was still awesome in his old age... he just wasn't quite as good as 25-30 year old Karl Malone... that's what's annoying me in this comparison. Shaqattack is telling me only a 5 year stretch of your prime matters to him, and then he's picking the wrong stretch! I don't maintain Karl Malone was equally good every year of his career, of course he wasn't (Kobe certainly wasn't), but he was playing at an awesomely high level throughout his career. He peaks where Kobe does thanks to his notably superior D, and his prime as a whole (and career as a whole) is better. It's not like Karl is even playing badly in the stretch Shaqattack identifies. For instance, he points me to Karl's 50% TS one playoffs... completely ignoring that Kobe had a TS of around 50% multiple times! (because Shaqattack's methodology disregards those years, because only the 5 year stretch he's picked counts under his criteria).

Shaqattack is relying way too much on a media driven narrative of "Karl Malone made the finals, so he must have become a different player!" when statistically he clearly was at his best from 88-93... which makes sense, because players tend to be better at age 25-30 than 34-35. The quote from Karl Malone is just the usual meaningless player hyperbolic comment that players make every year. If you asked Karl Malone in any given year of his career how he felt, I imagine he'd have said much the same thing ("I'm in the shape of my life, the rest of the league better watch out!"). All athletes to some extent, but guys like Karl Malone especially, have to have this mindset to go out and compete. Our job analysing players careers is to disregard the false narrative and silly hyperbolic comments, and focus on the evidence.


No, I'm not relying on anything media driven. It's not obnoxious for you to make assumptions like that ESPECIALLY when I've actually explained why I think '94-'98 Malone was better multiple times, and that's his significantly better passing, post defense and jump shot while Malone even with less athleticism still ran the floor well and was an excellent screen/roll player so the athletic tradeoff wasn't enough to negate the improved skills, imo.

Yes, most players are at their best from 25-30, but Malone was very unusual. There are exceptions. Another one is Steve Nash who unquestionably had his 3 best years from 2005-2007 at 31-33 years old. Then there's Nique who peaked at 33 coming off a serious achilles injury the previous year!

And yes, I judge players based on their primes. That makes by far the most sense to me. Why? Because you can actually look at all of the things they had in their games between their skills and athleticism. Not, "well, so and so was this kind of player at 35, while player x was this kind of player, but he played like this in his prime, so how much do I factor in each?" It seems ridiculous to me to try to do things like that to decide who the better basketball player was instead of actually looking at both players in their primes and breaking down their games.

And again, I'm not using that 5 year stretch for Kobe. If you actually read my posts, you'd know that I consider 2003-2009 to have been Kobe's prime, and I also add the 10 season comparison from 2001-2010, which I maintain compares favorably to Malone.

I do give some extra points to Malone for longevity, but not enough for me to even consider him at this spot over better basketball players like Kobe, West, Barkley, Moses, Robinson, Dirk and even Ewing.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#282 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 9:11 am

Where is the evidence Karl Malone wasn't as good a defender in 88-93? I watched NBA ball extensively back then, and I have never heard this suggested, nor seen any evidence for it.

There are certainly exceptions for players peaking at different times. In the case of Nash he wasn't being used correctly, went to Phoenix and got used correctly, and looked awesome. Nash's numbers all fit with the media commentary, team performance and eye test; he improved. Karl Malone's situation is not the same. His best numbers come from 88-93, not 94-98, and that was his physical prime too. There's a media narrative he peaked then, but I'm not seeing the evidence for it elsewhere.

You are entitled to judge players on whatever criteria you like, but I think relying so much on a 5 year stretch is not a fair way to assess players whole careers. I'm also confused, because if the test is who had the best 5 year stretch you really ought to be voting for Barkley or D.Rob here (or Dr J).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#283 » by ShaqAttack3234 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 9:16 am

Baller2014 wrote:Where is the evidence Karl Malone wasn't as good a defender in 88-93? I watched NBA ball extensively back then, and I have never heard this suggested, nor seen any evidence for it.

There are certainly exceptions for players peaking at different times. In the case of Nash he wasn't being used correctly, went to Phoenix and got used correctly, and looked awesome. Nash's numbers all fit with the media commentary, team performance and eye test; he improved. Karl Malone's situation is not the same. His best numbers come from 88-93, not 94-98, and that was his physical prime too. There's a media narrative he peaked then, but I'm not seeing the evidence for it elsewhere.

You are entitled to judge players on whatever criteria you like, but I think relying so much on a 5 year stretch is not a fair way to assess players whole careers. I'm also confused, because if the test is who had the best 5 year stretch you really ought to be voting for Barkley or D.Rob here (or Dr J).


I never said he wasn't good early, I said he became a better defender late, which Malone himself said, and almost everyone else I've spoken to agrees with.

What do you mean no evidence? His numbers were largely unchanged, especially consider how much slower his mid to late 90's Jazz teams were, and improved defenses by '98 as well as a declining Stockton playing 29 mpg(and Malone still averaged 28/10/4, 53 FG%/60 TS% with Stockton in '98) except Malone's assist numbers and turnover numbers dramatically improved from '94 or so on, and his improved passing during this time is very noticeable.

Most importantly, I think I make a compelling case for Malone improving at that age, and Malone himself agreed! You're entitled to your opinion, but you're taking it too far with the "no evidence" stuff. Even though I stand by my opinion that Malone was at his best from '94-'98 and peaked in '98, I can still acknowledge a case can be made that Malone peaked in '90 or '92.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#284 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 9:26 am

Malone's hyperbolic comments, like those of all players, should be taken well salted. I daresay if we asked Karl (or Kobe) each year of their careers, they'd tell people they were "better than they'd ever been! The NBA better watch out, I'm ready to rip it up!" I never heard anyone at the time claim Malone improved defensively later, and you provide no evidence for this claim. It seems to just be your opinion.

Karl Malone's numbers look better from 88-93 (regular season and playoffs). If someone wants to provide a pace analysis they're welcome to, and I'll revisit the issue, but I don't see it. His assists improved, I thought it was generally agreed among Jazz fans that this was because the team added a great 3rd option named Jeff Hornacek who could catch and shoot awesomely, and because Sloan's offensive schemes took advantage of this more.

I mean, if you were comparing peak Malone to peak Kobe, I'd see it... but this weird discussion of arbitrary 5 year stretches is just strange to me, especially since your unusual criteria actually hurts Kobe's case for anyone who doesn't use your criteria of "let's focus mainly on the best 5 consecutive years". You've basically told me that a whole bunch of Kobe's prime years outside this 5 year stretch were not at all up to Kobe's standard in the 5 year stretch, whereas the argument from the pro-Kobe voters has generally been that Kobe was incredibly consistent throughout his prime. Just tell me flat out, do you really think Karl Malone's combined regular season and playoffs in 1992 was less impactful then Kobe's best season? And if it was, surely you admit it was at least comparably good.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#285 » by ShaqAttack3234 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 9:44 am

Baller2014 wrote:Malone's hyperbolic comments, like those of all players, should be taken well salted. I daresay if we asked Karl (or Kobe) each year of their careers, they'd tell people they were "better than they'd ever been! The NBA better watch out, I'm ready to rip it up!" I never heard anyone at the time claim Malone improved defensively later, and you provide no evidence for this claim. It seems to just be your opinion.


What do you mean no evidence? Defense is notoriously difficult to evaluate with stats, so what evidence is there? I posted the Malone quote where he specifically mentions defense. You can say what you want about it, but that qualifies as evidence, as does the fact that Malone had a lone all-defensive 2nd team before 1997, whcih was way back in '88, then made all-defensive 1st team from '97-'99.

Karl Malone's numbers look better from 88-93 (regular season and playoffs). If someone wants to provide a pace analysis they're welcome to, and I'll revisit the issue, but I don't see it. His assists improved, I thought it was generally agreed among Jazz fans that this was because the team added a great 3rd option named Jeff Hornacek who could catch and shoot awesomely, and because Sloan's offensive schemes took advantage of this more.


Malone, like most players, improved his passing as his career went on, but to Karl's credit, this improvement was even more dramatic than most. BY midway through his career, he was really nothing special as a passer, but then became an excellent passer the latter half of his career. This is obvious watching Malone play.

as far as pace, well, I'm not a fan of PER at all because I'm not a fan of putting a number on how much pace helped a player's game or penalizing a player for playing more minutes and particularly per minute stats, which are very flawed, but FWIW, Malone did post his highest PER in '97 followed by '98, then '90 is a clear 3rd.

If nothing else, that shows you Malone played at a significantly higher pace when he peaked statistically in 1990 compared to '97 and '98, and minutes are pretty close all 3 years. Plus, regardless of the exact number, anyone who watched Karl should be able to guess how Karl benefited from a faster pace, and Stockton averaged 14.5 apg in 37.2 mpg and 78 games in 1990 compared to 10.5 apg in 35.3 mpg in '97 and 8.5 apg in 29 mpg and 64 games in '98. And I'd bet money that played a significant part in Malone's stats comparing '90 to '98, in addition to pace and defenses being superior in '98.

I mean, if you were comparing peak Malone to peak Kobe, I'd see it... but this weird discussion of arbitrary 5 year stretches is just strange to me, especially since your unusual criteria actually hurts Kobe's case for anyone who doesn't use your criteria of "let's focus mainly on the best 5 consecutive years". You've basically told me that a whole bunch of Kobe's prime years outside this 5 year stretch were not at all up to Kobe's standard in the 5 year stretch, whereas the argument from the pro-Kobe voters has generally been that Kobe was incredibly consistent throughout his prime. Just tell me flat out, do you really think Karl Malone's combined regular season and playoffs in 1992 was less impactful then Kobe's best season? And if it was, surely you admit it was at least comparably good.


I said nothing about peak, I said PRIME. If you want to argue peak then go ahead, but Malone didn't have a comparable peak to Kobe from '96-'98, and no, I don't think Malone was as good in '92 as Kobe was in his prime, much less peak. He had a great playoff run, surprisingly good, and far above any other run he had, but I still don't think he had the all around game to be compared to Kobe yet, especially since '92 Malone was nothing special as a passer, which is huge to me when comparing the best offensive players.

And you're really twisting everything. I said '03-'09 was Kobe's prime and that Kobe's '04 and '05 during that stretch were below his usual level due to well-documented and extremely publicized injury and off the court issues, which is true, and anyone can see that '04 and '05 standout well below Kobe's typical standard of excellence from '03-'09.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#286 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 9:53 am

So the evidence is one run of the mill hyperbolic player comment, and all-D teams (which are notoriously bad, basically a joke in the NBA). That's not really evidence. I watched the NBA at the time, and Malone was a great defender, he didn't fundamentally change in later years. We can agree to disagree, but you're basically admitting it's just your opinion that he became a better defensive player.

As for the rest, I think I've covered it all. I will add that it's a bit telling to say "well, Kobe's prime was 03-09... oh, but 04 and 05 don't count cos he was hurt". Ok, well if they don't count then Kobe's fans shouldn't be giving him credit for those years, because by your own account he played badly in them relative to his usual standard. But even in 2003, which I assume does count, Kobe's TS% was 531 in the playoffs (which you described as inefficient), and he played pretty poorly in the Spurs series in which they were eliminated (he scored a lot, but his FG% was 432. Yuck).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#287 » by ShaqAttack3234 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 10:17 am

Baller2014 wrote:So the evidence is one run of the mill hyperbolic player comment, and all-D teams (which are notoriously bad, basically a joke in the NBA). That's not really evidence. I watched the NBA at the time, and Malone was a great defender, he didn't fundamentally change in later years. We can agree to disagree, but you're basically admitting it's just your opinion that he became a better defensive player.


Well, yeah, it's pretty much my opinion, just like it's your opinion that he was as good early, so I don't get why you're going on the provide evidence thing when you can't provide evidence to support your claim, because defense is primarily based on opinions watching the games, especially since we don't have any on/off or RAPM numbers for pre-'97. I did provide some evidence, but I'll agree it was weak, but I never claimed it can be supported with strong evidence when comparing Malone's defense from early 90's to mid to late 90's. However, I will try to look for more quotes from various sources, but I'll probably be limited in what I can find because Google Archives is more limited than it was a year or so ago.

As for the rest, I think I've covered it all. I will add that it's a bit telling to say "well, Kobe's prime was 03-09... oh, but 04 and 05 don't count cos he was hurt". Ok, well if they don't count then Kobe's fans shouldn't be giving him credit for those years, because by your own account he played badly in them relative to his usual standard. But even in 2003, which I assume does count, Kobe's TS% was 531 in the playoffs (which you described as inefficient), and he played pretty poorly in the Spurs series in which they were eliminated (he scored a lot, but his FG% was 432. Yuck).


I'm actually not excluding those years. When I posted Kobe's stats from '03-'09, I didn't leave them out, same thing with '01-'10. I just added that note about those years because it adds context and explains why Kobe reached such a high level in '03, dropped dramatically, then returned to it in 2006, but everyone who followed the league at the time(and I'm assuming you did), will remember what was going on with Kobe in 2004 and 2005, and it wasn't normal.

And I have been critical of Kobe's play in the 2003 playoffs. The poor shooting may have been due to the well-documented shoulder injury, but even I've said that doesn't excuse him shooting so much in the Spurs series with him struggling also going up against a phenomenal defender in Bowen and a great defensive team. I think that is Kobe's one flaw. Even when he's shooting poorly, he'll go down shooting, so I think in that regard, even with the injury, 2003 is a valid example of Kobe at his best(scoring streaks and overall play from late January on), but then firing up a ton of shots(26.5 FGA per game) at a relatively low percentage vs the Spurs, particularly the first 2 games, even though Kobe almost brought them back with a classic performance in game 5, the game that likely decided the series, and imo, the championship.

But even including everything from 2003-2009, or 2001-2010, Kobe overall stands as a superb playoff performer even with a few subpar performances. The good far outweighs the bad.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#288 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 10:32 am

Just to compare:

Malone's peak season in 1992:
Regular season- 28ppg, 11.2rpg, 3apg, 599. TS%
Playoffs (over 16 games) 29-11-3 on 62TS%

Kobe's peak season in 2001:
Regular season- 28.5ppg, 5.9rpg, 5apg, 552. TS%
Playoffs (over 16 games) 29-7-6 on 55TS%

Malone looks clearly better. That's before we factor in his notably higher defensive impact, and his lack of negatives poisoning the team. That's pretty damning for mine, because Malone kills Kobe longevity wise too.

I suppose some people could argue Kobe's peak was later (after the rules changed to benefit him, which in and of itself is troubling), but if you do then you're ceding an even greater defensive advantage to Malone, because Kobe's D in his later years had gotten a lot worse.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#289 » by Quotatious » Fri Aug 1, 2014 10:51 am

Baller2014 wrote:Kobe's peak season in 2001:
Regular season- 28.5ppg, 5.9rpg, 5apg, 552. TS%
Playoffs (over 16 games) 29-7-6 on 55TS%

Why do you think '01 was Kobe's peak? He wasn't even the first option on his team, so it doesn't really represent what Kobe really is as a player. I understand that you're probably much more impressed with young Kobe defensively, but I think he was a far more consistent and polished offensive player in the mid/late 2000s. Obviously there's no way to prove it, but I'd bet that 2001 Kobe wouldn't look as impressive in the postseason without Shaq. His volume would probably go up even more, but efficiency would go down, and I'm not sure if that would be beneficial to his team.

I don't really have a problem with that, you're certainly entitled to your own opinion, but I always find it a bit weird when people consider Frobe as peak Bryant.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#290 » by ShaqAttack3234 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 10:52 am

Baller2014 wrote:Just to compare:

Malone's peak season in 1992:
Regular season- 28ppg, 11.2rpg, 3apg, 599. TS%
Playoffs (over 16 games) 29-11-3 on 62TS%

Kobe's peak season in 2001:
Regular season- 28.5ppg, 5.9rpg, 5apg, 552. TS%
Playoffs (over 16 games) 29-7-6 on 55TS%

Malone looks clearly better. That's before we factor in his notably higher defensive impact, and his lack of negatives poisoning the team. That's pretty damning for mine, because Malone kills Kobe longevity wise too.

I suppose some people could argue Kobe's peak was later (after the rules changed to benefit him, which in and of itself is troubling), but if you do then you're ceding an even greater defensive advantage to Malone, because Kobe's D in his later years had gotten a lot worse.


Again, this is just your outlook. I strongly disagree with 2001 being Kobe's peak, hell, I don't even think he entered his prime until 2003 when he became a legitimate 3 point shooter, bulked up and showed a more diverse game with better use of fakes ect. And 2001 is one of the years the negatives do apply to Kobe because I'd go as far as to call him a cancer the first couple of months of that season, but he was so good in the playoffs, I almost overlook it. With that said, I would probably give 2001 Kobe the edge over due to the playoff run, which I think was even better than Malone's great 1992 run.

Though as I've said, I don't agree with either season as either player's peak, and I guess at this point we'll agree to disagree on Malone's defense.

But how about passing? Malone's assist to turnover ratio was 3 apg and 3.1 in 1992, certainly not great. And his AST% was 13.4%, also not great. That's one reason I take Kobe, in addition to getting his own shot. Malone was a good post player in '92 and a beast getting deep position, but he wasn't quite up there with the elites such as Kareem, Shaq, Hakeem, Barkley and McHale in the post. I'd also probably lean towards 2001 Kobe's defense being at least as impressive as '92 Malone, though it's hard to compare a guard to a power forward, I'd also say 2001 Kobe's rebounding was more impressive in the playoffs for his position than '92 Malone, especially since he was playing on a team that demolished opponents on the board with his center grabbing over 15 rpg that run.

Besides, as far as defense, you can pick 2008 Kobe since Kobe played good defense that year, and imo, played his best defense since the 3peat.

One thing I will say is that Malone was already great at stripping opponents late 80's/early 90's. I was very impressed at how many times he stripped Tom Chambers in game 4 of the '90 Phoenix/Utah series, though that certainly wasn't a great series for Malone in general as his numbers plummeted to 25.2 ppg, 10.2 rpg and 2.2 apg on 43.8 FG% and 50.5 TS% while shooting 40% or lower in the first 3 games of the series. Another example of what I'm talking about with Malone in the playoffs. There's just too many of them, from both stages of his career.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#291 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 10:58 am

ShaqAttack3234 wrote:And 2001 is one of the years the negatives do apply to Kobe because I'd go as far as to call him a cancer the first couple of months of that season

Well, I certainly agree with this part.

If people want to pick a different year as Kobe's peak year, and post it against Karl Malone's 1992 peak, they're more than welcome to do so. I don't think any of them trump it.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#292 » by lukekarts » Fri Aug 1, 2014 12:32 pm

Vote: Kobe Bryant

Players flaws are becoming more pronounced at this stage of the top 100, yet Kobe has remained in discussion for several topics now and I put my case forward in #12.

It seems his competition here is Karl Malone so my arguments still carry forward. I feel in comparison to Kobe, Malone was just not a good enough scorer, and whilst he had a long career, and a good all round game, his one best attribute (scoring) was insufficient to get things done - and his ~5% drop in TS% in the playoffs to me is unacceptable, when I compare him to Kobe. In fact, my personal preference is for Dirk over Malone too, and I feel a case can be made for Moses, D-Rob and maybe even Jerry West at this stage.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#293 » by drza » Fri Aug 1, 2014 2:19 pm

A bit more Dr. J talk, this time from an old Dr. J vs Kobe thread from 2012. What I'd love to see (or be able to do, for that matter) is a 1-on-1 comparison between Dr. J and Kobe...which this post isn't. However, it does give some analysis about how playing with or without dominant centers may have affected the team successes of Dr. J and Kobe, including some basic stats but some interesting news articles.

In this thread I also found a great post breaking down what they perceive as Kobe's elite defense. I'll probably post that in a separate post, with some thoughts. But for now, here's the Dr. J quote by ThaRegul8r in response to tsherkin:

ThaRegul8r wrote:
tsherkin wrote:Kobe has won more titles and been to the Finals more than has Dr. J


I was thinking on Erving's career, and I'm going to ask a question, which I do not want people to get overly emotional about or sling ad hominems over. If it is impossible to refrain from doing so, then simply do not respond to this post. But thinking over Erving's NBA career—and this is one advantage of actually knowing what happened at the time, one thing that was continually mentioned was Philadelphia's lack of a dominant center whilst going up against all-time great centers:

In those years that the 76ers made the Finals but did not win — 1977, 1980 and 1982 — they didn’t have a center to compare with the rival’s center. In 1977 it was Bill Walton against Caldwell Jones and back-up, ever erratic Darryl Dawkins. In 1980 and 1982 it was reversed, with Dawkins starting and Jones off the bench, against Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Again, no contest. Philadelphia finally solved this problem in September 1982 by getting Moses Malone from Houston for Caldwell Jones and a 1983 first-round draft pick.


After the 1977 NBA Finals, in which Erving averaged 30.3 points on 54.3 percent shooting from the floor, 85.7 percent shooting from the line and 60.4 percent true shooting, 6.8 rebounds, 5 assists and 2.67 steals, this was written:

What the team lacked was a dominant center, and what it had was an abundance of hot-tempered, big men. The most important ingredient of most NBA championship teams had been an outstanding center. But the 76ers had Darryl Dawkins, who should still be playing college basketball; Caldwell Jones, and Iarvey Catchings. Yet, with all that, the 76ers came within two games of winning the NBA championship.


The mismatch of the series was Bill Walton against either Caldwell Jones or Darryl Dawkins


Erving had now played in the NBA six years and had lost in the NBA Finals three times. The common denominator in these defeats was the fact that Philadelphia was losing the battle in the middle. Bill Walton had dominated the 1977 series. Wes Unseld dominated the 1978 playoff series. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (and Magic) won the center battle in 1980 and 1982. Robert Parish and Kevin McHale gave the Sixers fits.

The 76ers signed free agent Moses Malone when he was the best center in the game—and Philadelphia won its second (and last) NBA Championship.


And when they did, it was Erving who put the capper on the championship:

Doc’s finest hour puts signature on 76ers’ NBA championship crown

INGLEWOOD, Calif. — The elder statesman made his points eloquently.

Seven of them in a row in the fourth quarter heat and fury of the 76ers’ world-championship win.

The old guy kicked up his heels. And then he showed them to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Seven points in a row. When the NBA championship was on the line, Julius Erving’s box-score line was full of drama.

In the same building in which his self-control broke and he cried unashamedly in defeat last year, in the Los Angeles Forum, before 17,505 hostile witnesses, Julius Erving, 33 years old, a dozen years as a pro, three times a loser in the NBA finals, walked off with the smile of a winner Tuesday night.

Erving, the Sixers captain and for so long the heart of the Sixers team, was its driving force when the championship was won, 115-108, over the Lakers to complete a 4-0 sweep of the NBA finals Tuesday night.

“After coming in second three times (since coming to the Sixers in 1976), you start to ask why it happens,” Erving said outside the riotous Sixers locker room. “I would like to give thanks to the Creator, not only for the times we were victorious, but for the times we lost. Those times built our character as men. Without what happened then, we wouldn’t be the same now.”

But without what happened in the final 2 minutes, 1 second, without what Dr. J, a basketball artist, created, they wouldn’t be champions today.

The Sixers trailed, 106-104. The Lakers had the ball and were waiting patiently for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, another senior citizen of some note, to swing up another sky-hook and repulse this latest Sixers’ challenge. Abdul-Jabbar had the ball, but he was a redwood surrounded with snarling buzz saws, so he had to pass it out. He aimed the ball for Michael Cooper on the right wing.

“I gambled a little bit and left my man, Jamaal Wilkes, who I really didn’t want to leave,” said Erving. “I just hedged a little bit.”

And one of those huge hands — the same mitts whose massive handprint used to stamp the Sixers as his team, beyond doubt, beyond question — struck the ball down. Erving flew away from the pack and dunked to tie it.

The Lakers took the lead back on a free throw by Magic Johnson, then got the ball back when the indecisive Sixers failed to get a shot off in 24 seconds.

Again they called on Abdul-Jabbar, but in this 2-hour, 37-minute test of wills, the biggest Laker, depleted by 40 minutes of play, missed with a baseline hook. It was his second critical error; it was Erving’s second opportunity to slip on the championship ring that had always been just out of reach.

A fast break, Mo Cheeks blazing down the floor, Erving hurtling in from the left wing, put the Lakers in jeopardy. But Cheeks’ shovel pass to Erving was too low; it was beneath his knees. The wings would be clipped again, it seemed certain.

“It was too low, but it wound up in the right place,” said Erving, who controlled the pass somehow, then dumped a scooped shot off the glass as Johnson fouled him. The Lakers took time out, hoping to rattle Erving into missing the free throw, but he hit nothing but net afterward, completing the three-point play that made the Sixers’ lead 109-107.

Abdul-Jabbar, called on again, drew a foul from Cheeks, as both teams, weary, relying on muscle memory, relying on what had always worked before, before Moses Malone and Andrew Toney and Magic Johnson, went to their old war horses.

But Kareem hit the back of the rim on his first foul shot. His second reduced the Sixers’ lead to 109-108, with 42 seconds to go.

“The offensive leadership of this team at clutch time is provided by Moses or Andrew (Toney) now,” said Erving. “I was looking for them first.”

But he couldn’t get it to them and, as the shot clock wound down, Erving ended up face-to-face with Johnson, 18 feet from the basket, just inside the right-hand arc of the foul circle.

“I hadn’t been shooting that well,” said Erving. “But I let it fly and it was in the Lord’s hands.”

He may be 33 and graying now, but in the face-down with Johnson, Magic had blinked. Erving’s jumper hit nothing but net. Again.

The Lakers, the worst three-point shooting team in the NBA, had 24 seconds to learn to love the bomb.

Two of them, bracketed around another Abdul-Jabbar turnover, missed, and a final, anticlimactic dunk show by Malone and Cheeks took place amid an ongoing celebration by the Sixers’ bench.

“For us,” said Erving, after the incredible rush of events had spent itself, “this is a beginning. This isn’t the end of a long, cumbersome journey. It is the beginning.”

He hugged NBA commissioner Larry O’Brien and he hugged Sixers’ general manager Pat Williams. And he hugged owner Harold Katz.

“I cried here last year, for the first time since my brother died in 1969,” Erving said, referring to the sixth-game defeat at the hands of the Lakers that ended another unsuccessful bid for the title. “But Mr. Katz took one look at the tears in my eye and he said, ‘You won’t have to cry again.’ ”

In the locker room, his teamates [sic] were geysering champagne and coach Billy Cunningham was beckoning the elder statesman to join in the fun.

Just before he left the room, as final testimony to the sense of permanent values derived from 12 years in the flux of this high-speed game, Erving said, “I’ve had three rings (two in the ABA) in 12 years as a pro. So don’t get the idea this ring was just for me.”

He nodded toward the locker room. “They needed it more than me,” Julius Erving said.


When he finally got the big man he never had in the NBA, the result was one of the GOAT single-season teams.

Yet when you compare his career to Kobe Bryant's, what was a problem for Erving was actually a strength for Bryant. He was fortunate to go to a team that had Shaquille O'Neal, who some call the MDE, and who was voted to have the second-greatest peak in NBA history on this board's 50 Highest Peaks Project. Playing with Shaq from 1996-97 to 2003-04, the Lakers made three Western Conference Semifinals appearances, one Western Conference Finals, four NBA Finals and won three NBA titles, all consecutively from 2000 to 2002.

Then he had Andrew Bynum, who the Lakers drafted with the tenth pick in 2005, and got Pau Gasol from Memphis in February 2008. After acquiring Gasol the Lakers made three straight Finals from 2008 to 2010, winning back-to-back titles in 2009 and 2010. Then after being swept by the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Semifinals in 2011 and beaten by the Oklahoma City Thunder in five in the Western Conference Semis in 2012, the Lakers acquired Dwight Howard. Unlike Erving, Kobe has never lacked for quality big men. In between the time Shaq went to Miami and the Lakers acquired Gasol, did Kobe have any more success than Erving did? So I'm not sure how it can be so easily said that Kobe had more success when he had a surplus of what Erving lacked.

lj4mvp wrote:Until Moses got there, Dr. J had to go against front courts of

Walton*/Lucas
Unseld*/Hayes*
McHale*/Parish*
Kareem*/Chones/Haywood (I'm not sure which started)
Kareem*/McAdoo

THe players with teh askerisk aren't just in the HOF, they are all part of the NBA at 50 team. Most of those years, Dr. J's front court was Steve Mix and Cauldwell Jones.


What would Erving's NBA success look like if he had Moses sooner while going against peak Walton and prime Kareem? Or what about if Milwaukee kept him and he got to play with Kareem?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#294 » by Baller2014 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 2:43 pm

If anyone is wondering, the run off candidate/s are wide open still. Of the 44-ish voters participating only 19 have voted so far. Kobe has 9 votes, Karl Malone has 5, West has 2, Dirk 2 and Dr J has 1, so any two candidates could still get up.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#295 » by E-Balla » Fri Aug 1, 2014 3:59 pm

Baller2014 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:Career ORTG for Pau from 05-11:
05 - 112
06 - 111
07 - 115
08 Memphis - 114
08 Lakers - 128
09 - 126
10 - 120
11 - 123

There is a clear increase once he gets to LA.

1) I don't really find OTRG to be terribly useful,
2) Even using OTRG the increase is nowhere near as huge as you made it out to be with TS%. It's the sort of increase we'd expect to see, given he went from being the offensive focus with a mediocre support cast to being the offensive Robin on a stacked contender.

Are you serious? A 5 point ORTG jump (Pau had an expected ORTG jump of 2.25 in 2008 and in reality had a 14 point jump) is spectacular so a 10-15 point jump is getting into most efficient ever territory (his 124 from 08-11 in LA would be the best ever if he maintained that over his career). It is well beyond the type of jump we expect to see as USG and ORTG have a 1:1.25 ratio not a 1:8 ratio.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#296 » by Clyde Frazier » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:06 pm

Vote for #13 - Dr. J

My post from last thread (click spoiler):

Spoiler:
He was the ABA. He revitalized the NBA. Ladies and gentlemen, Dr. J.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nju01.html

http://www.remembertheaba.com/tributema ... rving.html

- 16 year career (5 ABA, 11 NBA)
- 2x ABA champion, 1x NBA champion
- 3x ABA MVP, 1x NBA MVP (2 other top 3 finishes, 2 other top 5 finishes)
- 5x all ABA (4 1st, 1 2nd), 7x all NBA (5 1st, 2 2nd)

I was originally going to vote for oscar in the last thread, but I've decided to go with Dr. J as I think I can provide more information on him, and his case for this spot seems as good as oscar's to me.

For years, erving's ABA career was looked upon as either insignificant to some, or far less significant than what he accomplished in the NBA. I've always felt he never got a fair shake as a result, although it seems he's more appreciated here than by the general public.

Using DQuinn's adjustment breakdown (http://www.apbr.org/oct2000.html - see "HOW GOOD WAS THE ABA"), I've adjusted erving's ABA stats from 72-76 to reflect the NBA equivalent and compared them to 77-81:

Image

Interestingly, his TS% in his first 5 ABA seasons (55.8%) was identical to his first 5 NBA seasons. He remained an efficient player transitioning from the ABA to NBA.

And while it's a much smaller sample size, let's look at the playoffs while we're at it:

Image

His ABA playoff TS% was 57.5%, and his NBA playoff TS% (77-81) was 55.3%. If I have time, i'll go back and do this per 100 possessions, but i was more curious about the actual stats to boot. Yes, there's still a decrease in production, but nothing that screams, "Man, this guy was really just an avg player masquerading as a superstar in the ABA".

It's very possible that he peaked earlier than some other players do, and he would've performed just as well in the NBA in say 76. By all accounts, he was an absolute monster of a player that season, and from the games i've seen, there was no denying that.

74 ABA Playoffs

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLWGRDjuAIw[/youtube]

76 ABA Finals Game 6 vs. Nuggets

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qNqZVklGm0[/youtube]

The decrease in scoring production can also be attributed to his role changing when he went from the nets to the sixers. While he still led the sixers in scoring in 77, they had 3 other bonafide scorers in McGinnis, Doug Collins and World B Free:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHI/1977.html

Gene Shue specifically asked him to take on more of a "jack of all trades" role as opposed to putting up big scoring #s, and erving followed suit. They would end up getting upset by the blazers in the finals, but making the jump to the NBA and going to the finals out of the gate was impressive nonetheless. He avg'd ~30 PPG, 7 RPG, 5 APG, 2.7 SPG and 1 BPG on 54% FG and 86% FT, which included a 40 pt performance in the 2 pt game 6 loss. He quickly made his mark on the NBA.

I think what he accomplished as far as winning and production is concerned should still be valued highly regardless of the league. I have no problem with weighing the ABA less, but his overall body of work is still substantial. He was also the face of an entire league that struggled to keep its head above water for its entire existence. That's a lot of pressure for a guy who could've just been another all star in the more stable NBA.

As his NBA career went on, he was still an extremely productive player (transcending the 2 leagues winning MVP in 81 at age 30) who went on many deep playoff runs. It's always my contention that great players need good players around them to win championships. Would Magic have still won rings without kareem? Yes, possibly, but very unlikely that he wins 5. Sixers finally got over the hump when they traded for moses, and erving achieved the elusive NBA title. They also steamrolled the playoffs that season going 12-1 (almost "fo fo fo"!) He had a solid finals putting up ~19 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 5 APG, 1 SPG and 2.8 BPG on 47% from the field and 80% from the line.

83 Finals Game 1 vs. Lakers

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVWtgBLprBc[/youtube]

He had solid longevity, too. In his 16th season, he was still putting up ~17 PPG, 4 RPG, 3 APG, 1 SPG and 1.6 BPG on 53% TS. He retired as a productive player as opposed to fizzling his way out. It wasn't nearly as common back then to play 15+ seasons, either. Outisde of baylor, erving really set the standard for the athletic wing like we'd never seen before. He would see a fleet of players (including jordan) try to emulate the way he played the game, and that means something. When you combine that with the fact that he was an elite player in his own right, I think he's more than deserving at this spot.

Career Highlights (well worth the watch)

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAvhvpQ7DSw[/youtube]


To piggyback on my point about Gene Shue asking erving to play a different role when he came to the sixers, take another look at the per 100 possession figures:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... poss::none

Shue was fired 6 games into the 78 season, and over the next few seasons under cunningham, we saw his per 100 production trend back up closer to his ABA #s, which eventually fell in line with his 81 MVP season.

Rod Thorn as an assistant coach for the Nets:

What stands out most in your mind from your time coaching Julius Erving as an assistant coach with the New York Nets?

I think that he was the best teammate of all the players I’ve been involved with in 40-plus years of NBA basketball. He was our leading scorer, our leading rebounder, our leading shot blocker, our leading assist guy—you name it, he led our team in it, plus he was the leader of our team. He guarded the best forward every night, whether it was a small forward or a big forward. He took most of the big shots. Not only was he a great player, but more importantly he was a great teammate.

I want to follow up on two of the things that you mentioned. You talked about him guarding the top forward on the other team. I think that a lot of people don’t realize that. Elaborate a little bit on the subject of Julius as a defensive player. I think that is a really overlooked aspect of his game and his skill set.

He had great lateral quickness and he was a tremendous jumper. He was a tough guy—that is one thing that is not talked about that much when you talk about Julius, because of his great athleticism, but he was a tough guy. I mean he would physically get after guys and play hard. He took a challenge. He played 43-44 minutes a game for us and guarded the best guy on the other team every night and was our leading scorer, so the energy that he expended during a game was much more than the average player did. It was just phenomenal what he did.


On Erving's truly dominant 76 finals performance:

All of that was just a warm-up for Dr. J's final dramatic operation in the ABA, when he led the New York Nets to the 1976 championship over the Denver Nuggets, topping both teams in all five statistical categories during that series: 37.7 ppg, 14.2 rpg, 6.0 apg, 3.0 spg and 2.2 bpg. Performances like that inspired the two quotes that best summarize Erving's impact on the game: ABA Commissioner Dave DeBusschere once said, "Plenty of guys have been 'The Franchise.' For us, Dr. J is 'The League'"; Pat Williams, the 76ers General Manager who acquired Erving shortly after the 1976 ABA Finals, later said of Erving, "There's never been anyone like him, including Michael. If Julius was in his prime now, in this era of intense electronic media, he would be beyond comprehension. He would blow everybody away."


SI's John Papanek on Erving at his peak in the ABA:

It has been said that unless one saw him play in the ABA, one never saw the real Dr. J. And it's true. In May 1976, he was still a curiosity to most of America, just like the ABA's red-white-and-blue circus ball and the three-point field goal. That spring, nobody outside of New York or Denver (except subscribers to a fledgling cable-TV service called Home Box Office) saw, during one ABA championship series, the greatest individual performance by a basketball player at any level anywhere--ABA, NBA, BAA or UCLA.

What the Doctor did for the New York Nets against the Denver Nuggets in that playoff series was score 226 points, grab 85 rebounds and block 13 shots. But the numbers don't tell the story. You had to see the man and hear the music.


http://20secondtimeout.blogspot.com/201 ... rt-ii.html

Yeah, I know, there's always going to be this mythic aura around Erving, and that can cut into analyzing his career clearly. That said, there's a good reason for it, and from everything i've seen over the years, it's relatively justified. Of course you're going to get the people involved around the time he was coming up to speak the highest praises of him, so you take that with a grain of salt.

Notable game footage:

1980 ECF vs. Celtics -- 28 PTS, 11 REB, 7 AST, 5 STL, 3 TO, 13-22 FG, 2-3 FT

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 30PHI.html

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjwqGwQEDbs[/youtube]

1983 ECF vs. Bucks -- 24 PTS, 10 REB, 3 AST, 3 BLK, 8 TO, 10-19 FG, 4-6 FT

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 80PHI.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpVeAzg1C1Y[/youtube]

79-80 PHI at SAS, The Doctor vs. The Ice Man -- 24 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST, 2 STL, 3 TO, 9-17 FG, 6-7 FT

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 90SAS.html

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em445cuhQmI[/youtube]

Other notable games:

82-83 Playoffs G1 vs. MIL -- 34 PTS, 8 REB, 7 AST, 1 BLK, 12-19 FG, 10-12 FT

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 50PHI.html

82-83 vs. DET -- 44 PTS, 11 REB, 7 AST, 8 BLK, 20/29 FG, 4-5 FT

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10PHI.html

83-84 vs. HOU -- 42 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST, 2 STL, 4 BLK, 7 TO, 15-25 FG, 1-1 3PT, 11-13 FT

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 80PHI.html
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#297 » by MistyMountain20 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:35 pm

Baller2014 wrote:If anyone is wondering, the run off candidate/s are wide open still. Of the 44-ish voters participating only 19 have voted so far. Kobe has 9 votes, Karl Malone has 5, West has 2, Dirk 2 and Dr J has 1, so any two candidates could still get up.

We get it, people could still not vote for Kobe, there's time.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#298 » by E-Balla » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:36 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:To people doubting Kobe's defense look at his DRAPM (because this number is probably the only reason you doubt him) from 08-10. Now he was seen as a better defender from 00-04 (I believe he was) and we all know he could turn it on when need be plus he always played defense in the playoffs. At this point I don't feel like his defense is that big an issue.


I'm really trying to avoid talking about Kobe here because I worry it will go a bad way, but I will chime in on the interpretation of this stat:

-You're pointing to the 3 year stretch where Kobe had a positive defensive RAPM in each year.
-This seems odd to me because the pro-Kobe side on this has never been that he's better than neutral on defense but that he was a great defender. In 2 of those 3 years, his defensive RAPM was less than 1, which still basically makes him only a neutral defender. That's really, really not very impressive.

Well the 2001 data is missing, the 2002 data is incomplete, and the 2003 data is using an incomplete season as the prior. I'm not really sure how trustworthy those numbers are (plus all they tell you is how impactful he was in that role as second banana).

Those 3 years where he was positive he wasn't really that impactful mainly because his best use was as a lockdown man to man guy (which isn't needed nightly). He also tends to slack when playing weaker guards (he used to let Monta do whatever he wanted to do for example).

-To then use that data showing him not being a negative defender when surrounding by a really healthy set of players around him along with the assumption that he was better in earlier years where his defensive RAPM was worse is just really strange.

All his early DRAPM says is that in the role he was in while running next to Shaq he wasn't very impactful and in the role he was in next to Pau he was impactful. I was trying to say that I believe 3-peat Kobe in the same role as b2b Kobe would be more effective and impactful defensively.

I look at all this data, as someone who just interprets the data, and I see a roughly neutral guy. That's for the negatives as well as the positives. I don't say Kobe was a horrible defender, just that his impact typically wasn't huge...which is a pretty common thing for guards. Guards with great reputations, guards with terrible reputations, typically they are much closer to neutral than most of us thought.

I can agree here. I saw Kobe overall as a slightly above average defender.

To your last: Kobe's ability to turn it on. Well now that's a legit thing to consider. That's basically a given to be a factor, the question is to what extent. I don't have a quantitative analysis done on the subject. I'm fine if you think that was enough to kick him up a tier from his regular season performances, but I'm reluctant to make such assumptions.

Well I can completely understand if you disagree but I was trying to shed some light on where me and probably a few other Kobe voters are coming from. Personally Kobe along with Iguodala is one of the best 1 possession defenders I've ever seen live. I feel if Kobe knew he had one possession to stop someone from scoring to either change the momentum of a game or win it he would get that stop and with basketball being a game of runs that is a valuable skill.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#299 » by dautjazz » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:40 pm

Nice to see Robertson made it at 12, I voted for him. :-)

Anyways, I think Karl Malone deserves the honor. My next guy will be Moses Malone. The reason I chose Malone over Moses, KG, Dr. J, West, Dirk, Barkley and Kobe (probably my next 7, no specific order) is because of his balance of great offense and defense, he really had no weaknesses. Malone's one flaw was not being as good for most of his career in the playoffs, but he did have one of the greatest Finals performances of all time, and what is considered by some the best performance on the losing end ever, his 1998 Finals performance. Malone also did very well in 1997. Even in his last year, he was a very good 3rd option for the Lakers and was heavily missed when he went down with injuries. Malone had a very good peak, and one of the best cases of longevity the league has ever seen, I'd say up there with Kareem, and maybe Jordan had it not been for so many retirements (still played very good at 39/40). Aside of Shaq, he's a small in the modern era for offensive domination. Once he was in the post, you couldn't stop him, in the fast break, you had to get out of his way, and as the years went on his fadeway/midrange became deadly. IMO before Dirk he was up there with the best long range shooting 3s, and could probably hit the 3 with good efficiency his last few years if he shot them more (most of his threes for his career are probably with the clock running down).
NickAnderson wrote:
How old are you, just curious.

by gomeziee on 21 Jul 2013 00:53

im 20, and i did grow up watching MJ play in the 90's.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #13 

Post#300 » by MacGill » Fri Aug 1, 2014 4:40 pm

So here is where I stand right now.

I am leaning Kobe for right now however will remain open to the board discussion. With respect to the PF talks, I am really having a hard time taking K Malone ahead of Dirk who I think matches up nicely against him and whose skill set makes him a better basketball player overall. Dirk has shown to be an all-time beast in the PS and I can't overlook that. Not to say KM hasn't been but I think with him alot more context needs to be applied to his great numbers which has been discussed here.

I appreciate the West conversation however, in all honesty, there just isn't enough footage for me to really solidify support for him. We are seeing too many other greats where their boxscore stats are being critiqued positively and negatively and I just can't see how he wouldn't have the same deficiencies as say a Kobe on defense. And because of this, I certainly cannot say that he is a better overall offensive player given how skilled Kobe truly is.

D-Rob, I feel right now that we really have to put in work to make a more short story novel into a long one. I think 5 year prime, he is one of the best ever but his career wasn't an epic 'Bird Impact' where I can say, while shorter, his impact was greater. Still too many greats on the table in these slots.

Dr.J - Always had him and Kobe neck and neck. Straight up, the merger doesn't really effect me here as the players play in whatever situation they find themselves in. He performed plain and simple. So I think this is really down to Kobe and Dr. J for me. I am hoping more Dr information gets posted because from a skill set perspective to me he certainly matches Kobe and each have their strengths/weaknesses in comparison. What I do admire about the Doctor is how he was the man on teams and meshed nicely as the robin as well. That's an importnat skill to me when longevity gets brought up here.
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