All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread

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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#281 » by ceiling raiser » Tue May 5, 2015 5:19 pm

PaulieWal wrote:To be fair Leonard wasn't playing his Pippen level defense the entire season. He was way better on both ends of the floor over the last two months of the season. Before exploding offensively he was a 15/5/2, 52% TS guy for more than half the season. His defense wasn't Pippen level to start the season either. It was only when he came back from his injury/post-all star break that he looked extremely sharp defensively and played like a star offensively. I am not saying he was a bad defender, he was still damn good but he certainly wasn't that good to start the season.

Again, I feel like I am missing something and I am really trying hard to see what some of you are seeing but I have been this far apart on a guy before relative to some of the good posters here like you, Spaceman etc.

I think a lot of it goes back to people using some of the criteria from ElGee's SRS evaluation project as a base for POY ballots (in addition to his research about missed time not having making a huge dent on championship odds).

Base your projection on how well the player played at the END OF THE SEASON (i.e. "playoff time"). If he's injured, gimpy, tired, etc. then assume he would have played like that throughout the year on a random, average team.


source: http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1241811

Perhaps it's misguided, but this approach makes intuitive sense to me at the moment, and Kawhi's two-way play from when he returned on 1/16, and the team SRS from then on stand out IMO.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#282 » by PaulieWal » Tue May 5, 2015 5:28 pm

fpliii wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:To be fair Leonard wasn't playing his Pippen level defense the entire season. He was way better on both ends of the floor over the last two months of the season. Before exploding offensively he was a 15/5/2, 52% TS guy for more than half the season. His defense wasn't Pippen level to start the season either. It was only when he came back from his injury/post-all star break that he looked extremely sharp defensively and played like a star offensively. I am not saying he was a bad defender, he was still damn good but he certainly wasn't that good to start the season.

Again, I feel like I am missing something and I am really trying hard to see what some of you are seeing but I have been this far apart on a guy before relative to some of the good posters here like you, Spaceman etc.

I think a lot of it goes back to people using some of the criteria from ElGee's SRS evaluation project as a base for POY ballots (in addition to his research about missed time not having making a huge dent on championship odds).

Base your projection on how well the player played at the END OF THE SEASON (i.e. "playoff time"). If he's injured, gimpy, tired, etc. then assume he would have played like that throughout the year on a random, average team.


source: http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1241811

Perhaps it's misguided, but this approach makes intuitive sense to me at the moment, and Kawhi's two-way play from when he returned on 1/16, and the team SRS from then on stand out IMO.


Thanks, I have looked into that as others have brought it up but I still disagree with that. At least now I know where more of you are coming from but to me that's really weird because then LeBron should be the #1 guy (at least based on the RS) because SSB was posting some numbers for the Cavs and they were nearly as good as GSW during the second half of the season but most of us are not rewarding him for a slow first half of the season plus the two week injury vacation/break.

When I am looking at RPOY I wanna evaluate the entire RS + the PS. Obviously if a guy is a borderline top 5 and then plays out of his mind in the PS while making a deep run that will impact my rankings significantly but I just refuse to reward guys who were good towards the end of the season only. To me that's not fair to stars/players who are busting their bodies for the entire RS and then still play well during the PS.

The other part of it is that Leonard certainly did not impress me during against the Clippers. I get that it is an extremely small sample size but the way I see it some of you are rewarding him for a great 2 months (because those were towards the end of the season).

Oh, well. Agree to disagree here :).
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#283 » by ceiling raiser » Tue May 5, 2015 5:35 pm

PaulieWal wrote:Thanks, I have looked into that as others have brought it up but I still disagree with that. At least now I know where more of you are coming from but to me that's really weird because then LeBron should be the #1 guy (at least based on the RS) because SSB was posting some numbers for the Cavs and they were nearly as good as GSW during the second half of the season but most of us are not rewarding him for a slow first half of the season plus the two week injury vacation/break.

When I am looking at RPOY I wanna evaluate the entire RS + the PS. Obviously if a guy is a borderline top 5 and then plays out of his mind in the PS while making a deep run that will impact my rankings significantly but I just refuse to reward guys who were good towards the end of the season only. To me that's not fair to stars/players who are busting their bodies for the entire RS and then still playing well during the PS.

The other part of it is that Leonard certainly did not impress me during against the Clippers. I get that it is an extremely small sample size but the way I see it some of you are rewarding him for a great 2 months (because those were towards the end of the season).

Oh, well. Agree to disagree here :).

Agree about LeBron, but I'm not sure how big an issue the broken jumper is. The turnovers don't bother me as much, but I have less confidence in his shooting ability. I'm also fairly high on Love, so I might credit him a bit with the turnaround. LeBron definitely could have a case for me as #1 though if he figures out his shot or goes to the post continuously, and the offense takes off in this series and beyond. I think he's still a top 3 guy for me right now though with Curry and CP3 (there is some separation after that top group IMO).

I have no problem agreeing to disagree on Leonard. As I said, I'm definitely open to changing my criteria, and even with my present criteria, the playoffs stuff might end up being a legitimate red flag for me. Always appreciate your take, value your opinion a ton. :)
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#284 » by PaulieWal » Tue May 5, 2015 5:51 pm

fpliii wrote:Agree about LeBron, but I'm not sure how big an issue the broken jumper is. The turnovers don't bother me as much, but I have less confidence in his shooting ability. I'm also fairly high on Love, so I might credit him a bit with the turnaround. LeBron definitely could have a case for me as #1 though if he figures out his shot or goes to the post continuously, and the offense takes off in this series and beyond. I think he's still a top 3 guy for me right now though with Curry and CP3 (there is some separation after that top group IMO).

I have no problem agreeing to disagree on Leonard. As I said, I'm definitely open to changing my criteria, and even with my present criteria, the playoffs stuff might end up being a legitimate red flag for me. Always appreciate your take, value your opinion a ton. :)


I agree that Love also deserves a lot of the credit for their turnaround but my main point was that LeBron was playing like LeBron again during that second half even with lower efficiency albeit that was mostly due to a more perimeter oriented attack mode instead of the post. His defense was certainly good and a lot better than people thought it was but I would have disagreed with anyone who put LeBron at 1 based on his last 2 months (the same way I am disagreeing with Leonard in top 5 because of that).

I certainly do understand your POV and ElGee's championship odds but again I don't think we should rank our players based on those odds season by season and it should be more of a ranking of the entire year (but that might be a different discussion altogether).

I am sure some already think that I don't like Leonard here but that's not true. I enjoy watching him play but I feel that he's getting overrated here when he played like a real star only two months of the season. I know defense is half the game but he certainly wasn't playing Pippen level defense to start the season by the eye-test. I remember watching a lot of early season San Antonio games and he wasn't jumping out defensively the way he did the last few months.

For me I always place my opinions next to you, Spaceman and a few others as the barometer of what I am thinking and how "wrong" or "right" I am. This is the first time I legitimately feel we are very far apart on a player. But that's good for this thread and project, it will certainly make me reevaluate thing differently.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#285 » by QRich3 » Tue May 5, 2015 6:15 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:It's a bit unclassy to make the post I did after one game, and I'm a little embarrassed by it to be honest, but I've just been in conversations with folks telling me that Paul's teammates are awful from the 3 despite me pointing out that the Clippers have been elite from the 3 according to the data all year. I just detect a stereotypical perspective of people arguing for the guy leading the worse team: "Ugh look at how awful everyone around him is?". And I'm just pointing out: They aren't perfect, but people need to be able to keep perspective and see the good as well as the bad. We've seen what Chris Paul's teams do when he has a weak supporting cast, these Clippers are far better than that, and we shouldn't pretend otherwise.

Nah don't sweat it, I just thought it was a bit premature, but I see where you're coming from. To be honest, the Griffin/Jordan/Redick/Barnes is an awesome offensive core with some fit problems but lots of talent. Problem is, they're a bad defensive unit, and what's behind them is even worse (on both ends). So I see where who was arguing with you comes from too: Curry and Harden are guys that carry their team's offense, but they are carried to be good teams by great defensive units. Paul doesn't have that luxury, he is able to get his team to be a better offensive team than those two, but the Clippers are a worse/similar team because they aren't good defensively. And there's not a lot neither of those 3 guys can do to significantly improve their team on that end.

Doctor MJ wrote:Re: Jordan. My issues with Jordan are specific. They at times are big enough he's hurting his team so I'm not saying they are minor, but I don't think there's any doubt that he at times can be quite helpful. My howling reaction to Jordan really came because of Doc: I think it's so problematic to let a guy adopt a stat-heavy game and then praise him as the best defensive player in the world when he has clear weaknesses to work through...and to do it while he's a pending free agent. I'm not expecting Machiavellian feats of negging from Doc, but at this stage to me the market for Jordan is north of who he is as a player, and the Clippers may well be forced between offering him a deal large enough it keeps them from making any serious improvements to their team or letting him walk.

Yeah, your issue with Doc happens to a lot of people, that's often the problem when discussing the Clippers online: people evaluate the personalities before the actual performance. Not saying I don't understand it, but it should go separately. Anyway, we've already discussed this on the GB, but whatever fallacy Doc was selling worked to get Deandre 3rd in DPOY, and to evaluate the Clippers properly you still have to separate that from what he actually thinks. I know it's still early in the postseason, and a lot of people are gonna think I'm a homer or whatever, but I honestly think Doc's coaching so far this playoffs is among the very best of my time. He does intentionally cover and mask DJ's weaknesses, and puts his strengths to use pretty well, so it's not like he really believes what he says publicly. And I think by now, paying Jordan $19M is not that great of a problem, with the cap rising, his offensive level, and the hope that he's gonna get much better on defense. Which I think it's pretty realistic to think. And this takes me to my next point:

Doctor MJ wrote:Re: Harden. I'm in this weird boat with the Beard. I've been a proponent of his since his time in OKC, on record at the time saying I trade Westbrook before I gave up Harden, and often times defending him since then against people who to my mind just won't acknowledge his brilliance...

I think it shouldn't be fair to have this series count too much against Harden if he doesn't perform well. It's just a bad match up. For whatever reason, Doc and Frank understand very well how to stop him and how to funnel him to the spots he feels more uncomfortable at. Like yesterday, he had quite a few turnovers on side and high pick'n'rolls that were not completely his fault. Scouting was just really good and Jordan did a great job of anticipating the timing of Howard's roll/show, and it left Harden a few times with no option but force the issue. But that's not something that just happens to him, Doc did a similar thing to Curry in last year's round one, aggressively trapping him and taking him out of a few games.

Harden's defense though, there's no excuse for that. Like I said before, I don't expect a guard to pick up his team's whole defense, but I expect him to not break it open at least. He had so many brainfarts yesterday that led to Barnes open baskets after a cut, that inexcusable. And that's gonna be an issue cause they are shifting the order of who guards who, putting Ariza on the PG (even if it's Austin) so he can switch on P&R's, and making Terry/Prignioni guard Redick when they're really not fit to, and if you're gonna be hidden on Barnes and still manage to be the one that consistently hurts your team the most... then I can't consider you a good player, let alone an MVP. But yeah, I expect he's gonna get better as the series go by.

Doctor MJ wrote:Re: One game shouldn't affect Paul's standing. This is where it gets interesting. It's not about the one game, it's about people thinking seriously about how they've judged Paul's supporting cast and how they've let that shape their opinion of Paul's candidacy here.

Put another way: It's not about "Wow, these guys can hit 3's without Paul", it's about "Huh, these guys have been hitting 3's all year, why did I think of them as if they were standing around helpless?".

Well, I already mentioned before that I think his disadvantage with the other guys is his team's defense. But even then, you can't just look at it as "Well, Redick is a 44% 3PT shooter and Barnes is at 36%", because that's not who they are, that's just who they've been this exact season. Both those numbers are career highs and about 3% over their career averages, and Paul is definitely a part of that. Not the only, or even the main factor, but definitely a big influence in those guys shooting that well. All of them playing together for a while has helped with familiarity, and that's always an underrated part of basketball teams over-performing. And obviously, Doc/Woodson's game-planning this year, positioning Blake on the elbows and the high post on half-court offense, and having him help distribute and helping space the floor, is also a big part of it.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#286 » by Doctor MJ » Tue May 5, 2015 11:23 pm

QRich3 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Re: One game shouldn't affect Paul's standing. This is where it gets interesting. It's not about the one game, it's about people thinking seriously about how they've judged Paul's supporting cast and how they've let that shape their opinion of Paul's candidacy here.

Put another way: It's not about "Wow, these guys can hit 3's without Paul", it's about "Huh, these guys have been hitting 3's all year, why did I think of them as if they were standing around helpless?".

Well, I already mentioned before that I think his disadvantage with the other guys is his team's defense. But even then, you can't just look at it as "Well, Redick is a 44% 3PT shooter and Barnes is at 36%", because that's not who they are, that's just who they've been this exact season. Both those numbers are career highs and about 3% over their career averages, and Paul is definitely a part of that. Not the only, or even the main factor, but definitely a big influence in those guys shooting that well. All of them playing together for a while has helped with familiarity, and that's always an underrated part of basketball teams over-performing. And obviously, Doc/Woodson's game-planning this year, positioning Blake on the elbows and the high post on half-court offense, and having him help distribute and helping space the floor, is also a big part of it.


A good post in general but I have to chime in further on this part:

The history on my back & forth with people on this involves them saying that RIGHT NOW the team sucks from the perimeter and oh, if only Paul had good threats on the perimeter. And meanwhile, the Clippers shooting from 3 is absolutely elite right now. Any complaints therefore, to my mind, are just pretty absurd.

Want to complain about depth? Sure.

Want to bring up that Paul has a role in helping the other guys be as effective as they are? Sure, as does every superstar ever.

But anyone who watches the Clippers and shutters at disgust thinking "Ugh, they are helpless from the outside" is flat out not watching the game objectively. And if you think that I'm building a straw man, look back on the history of this very thread.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#287 » by GSP » Wed May 6, 2015 2:45 am

Do u guys think Wall has cemented himself as the best Pg outside the Cp3/Steph/Westbrook tier? How do u see him VS Kawhi and Blake this season + playoffs?
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#288 » by bondom34 » Wed May 6, 2015 2:46 am

GSP wrote:Do u guys think Wall has cemented himself as the best Pg outside the Cp3/Steph/Westbrook tier? How do u see him VS Kawhi and Blake this season + playoffs?

To the first question for sure. I don't think he's near the top 5 just yet though, tonight to me showed more issues w the Hawks as they still struggled to win w/o Wall there. Wall's the clear cut 4th PG though.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#289 » by Dr Spaceman » Wed May 6, 2015 2:57 am

GSP wrote:Do u guys think Wall has cemented himself as the best Pg outside the Cp3/Steph/Westbrook tier?


Nope. I think Kyrie Irving is better.

GSP wrote:How do u see him VS Kawhi and Blake this season + playoffs?


Not on the same level. Outside of the top 6 (which Kawhi is a part of) I currently have Grffin/Aldridge/Draymond/Cousins/Gasol as clearly ahead, with Korver/Irving/Butler/Duncan/Millsap/Wall in the next tier; Wall is in the mix there, along with guys like Conley and Thompson, but they're near the bottom half. (No one above in exact order)
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#290 » by bondom34 » Wed May 6, 2015 3:02 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:
GSP wrote:Do u guys think Wall has cemented himself as the best Pg outside the Cp3/Steph/Westbrook tier?


Nope. I think Kyrie Irving is better.

GSP wrote:How do u see him VS Kawhi and Blake this season + playoffs?


Not on the same level. Outside of the top 6 (which Kawhi is a part of) I currently have Grffin/Aldridge/Draymond/Cousins/Gasol as clearly ahead, with Korver/Irving/Butler/Duncan/Millsap/Wall in the next tier; Wall is in the mix there, along with guys like Conley and Thompson, but they're near the bottom half. (No one above in exact order)

Who's the 6 if Leonard is part? Do you really have Westbrook that low?
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#291 » by Dr Spaceman » Wed May 6, 2015 3:47 am

bondom34 wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
GSP wrote:Do u guys think Wall has cemented himself as the best Pg outside the Cp3/Steph/Westbrook tier?


Nope. I think Kyrie Irving is better.

GSP wrote:How do u see him VS Kawhi and Blake this season + playoffs?


Not on the same level. Outside of the top 6 (which Kawhi is a part of) I currently have Grffin/Aldridge/Draymond/Cousins/Gasol as clearly ahead, with Korver/Irving/Butler/Duncan/Millsap/Wall in the next tier; Wall is in the mix there, along with guys like Conley and Thompson, but they're near the bottom half. (No one above in exact order)

Who's the 6 if Leonard is part? Do you really have Westbrook that low?


My bad. Westbrook is in the mix with Griff/LMA/Dray etc. Always forget a name when I do stuff like this.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#292 » by bondom34 » Wed May 6, 2015 3:50 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
Nope. I think Kyrie Irving is better.



Not on the same level. Outside of the top 6 (which Kawhi is a part of) I currently have Grffin/Aldridge/Draymond/Cousins/Gasol as clearly ahead, with Korver/Irving/Butler/Duncan/Millsap/Wall in the next tier; Wall is in the mix there, along with guys like Conley and Thompson, but they're near the bottom half. (No one above in exact order)

Who's the 6 if Leonard is part? Do you really have Westbrook that low?


My bad. Westbrook is in the mix with Griff/LMA/Dray etc. Always forget a name when I do stuff like this.

I'd still consider that way way low considering where Davis and Leonard are, but we've hashed that over a few pages ago! :lol:
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#293 » by GSP » Wed May 6, 2015 5:38 am

Good call on Conley Spaceman..........what a **** stud. Outplays the Mvp with one eye on his homecourt.
Tony Allen was stupid dominant still riding the Tony>Kawhi defense train.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#294 » by HeartBreakKid » Wed May 6, 2015 5:39 am

Tony Allen was disgusting tonight, though we've seen Kawhi Leonard destroy Golden State as well.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#295 » by GSP » Wed May 6, 2015 5:59 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:Tony Allen was disgusting tonight, though we've seen Kawhi Leonard destroy Golden State as well.

Thats true.........his inconsistent and somewhat disappointing defense after game 3 against Lac just left a bad taste in my mouth.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#296 » by QRich3 » Wed May 6, 2015 8:16 am

Doctor MJ wrote:A good post in general but I have to chime in further on this part:

The history on my back & forth with people on this involves them saying that RIGHT NOW the team sucks from the perimeter and oh, if only Paul had good threats on the perimeter. And meanwhile, the Clippers shooting from 3 is absolutely elite right now. Any complaints therefore, to my mind, are just pretty absurd.

Want to complain about depth? Sure.

Want to bring up that Paul has a role in helping the other guys be as effective as they are? Sure, as does every superstar ever.

But anyone who watches the Clippers and shutters at disgust thinking "Ugh, they are helpless from the outside" is flat out not watching the game objectively. And if you think that I'm building a straw man, look back on the history of this very thread.

Oh yeah, never meant to imply you were, and probably should have read the whole thread before making my point. They're obviously shooting pretty well, yeah.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#297 » by Texas Chuck » Wed May 6, 2015 12:59 pm

GSP wrote:
Tony Allen was stupid dominant still riding the Tony>Kawhi defense train.



Not totally sure I buy Allen as being the superior defender to Kawhi, but I don't think its ludicrous at all.either.

I find it typical that outside of big men, defenders who have offensive skills tend to get their defense reputation elevated more than a true specialist like TA.

But Allen is an absolute bulldog of an individual man defender.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#298 » by Doctor MJ » Wed May 6, 2015 1:41 pm

QRich3 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:A good post in general but I have to chime in further on this part:

The history on my back & forth with people on this involves them saying that RIGHT NOW the team sucks from the perimeter and oh, if only Paul had good threats on the perimeter. And meanwhile, the Clippers shooting from 3 is absolutely elite right now. Any complaints therefore, to my mind, are just pretty absurd.

Want to complain about depth? Sure.

Want to bring up that Paul has a role in helping the other guys be as effective as they are? Sure, as does every superstar ever.

But anyone who watches the Clippers and shutters at disgust thinking "Ugh, they are helpless from the outside" is flat out not watching the game objectively. And if you think that I'm building a straw man, look back on the history of this very thread.

Oh yeah, never meant to imply you were, and probably should have read the whole thread before making my point. They're obviously shooting pretty well, yeah.


Well it's a pretty long thread - in such cases I don't go back from the start and read the whole thing either. Cheers. :D
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#299 » by Mutnt » Wed May 6, 2015 3:06 pm

No one is talking about the Clippers having a bottom tier Cleveland '09 type supporting cast, can people stop exaggerating. I can find myself amid those Doc is addressing in his posts and all I've done is compared Curry vs. Paul and their respective supporting casts and stated facts. That's all. Nowhere did I try to rank CP3's supporting cast relative to the league.

Also, people need to stop tooting horns after 1-game sample sizes already... it's getting annoying. When the Spurs destroyed the Clippers in Game 3, 90% of the board were saying the Clippers can't do anything without Paul doing everything out there. Now they beat the Rockets handily in one game without CP3 and lo and behold he's getting overrated or something while the whole team would probably be sitting home watching the playoffs in the comfort of their couches f Paul had not stupidly carried the team in Game 7 on a bad hamstring making almost every shot including the game winner.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#300 » by GSP » Wed May 6, 2015 3:26 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:
GSP wrote:
Tony Allen was stupid dominant still riding the Tony>Kawhi defense train.



Not totally sure I buy Allen as being the superior defender to Kawhi, but I don't think its ludicrous at all.either.

I find it typical that outside of big men, defenders who have offensive skills tend to get their defense reputation elevated more than a true specialist like TA.

But Allen is an absolute bulldog of an individual man defender.

Tony is honestly the best man defender ive ever seen among perimeter players. Even over the Gloves, Mjs, Pippens of the world just otherwordly stuff

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