2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. *Full 2016 RS + PS RPM & RAPM Updated 6/24*

[MyUniBroDavis]

Oh and btw, I'm not trying to discredit green, i do think he has superstar+++++ impact and i get why his impact is so huge. The versatile is incredible, and, tbh, despite us all always talking about how curry fits in with the Warriors draymond fits in so well he is like a glue stick

And on thing, I feel like people really underrate klay. Yes, klay is primarily a catch and shoot guy, but the degree of difficulty on his shots are ridiculous at times as well. Nothing steph worthy, but he does do catch and shoot threes while fading away to the side, 180 jump mid range jumpers on the move, etc. having a guy that can catch and shoot that well, and barely needs any room at all because of his quick but not as quick as you know who's release is important. Iirc he shot 8/10 from 3 with his eyes closed or something.

[Mutnt]

What drza said about Draymond-type players having a tendency to excel in RAPM rankings made me think about Odom and if we actually (still) undervalue his impact in that role he had during his best years with the Lakers.

Odom was exactly that type of player. Obviously, Dray is better across the board, but Odom was kinda of a poor man's version. Could play the PF, SF (maybe C in some extreme small-ball scenarios), could hit outside shots, great rebounder at his position, was a solid passer and facilitated in various sets, could handle the ball well and made smart decisions and finally, was a very good defender. Could switch on most guys without giving advantages, very long etc.

RAPM shows Odom mainly doing well as a defender and then he shoots up massively in 2009 on both ends, but stat-wise, that was far from one of his most impressive years in the NBA, so where's the catch? Was Odom actually more valuable than most people believe as an offensive player most of his career? Was his potential even fully utilized in his early Laker years?

[SideshowBob]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/720654290839318528[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/720656800509468673[/tweet]

[lorak]

What do you mean by flaws? He isn't a game changer, but he isn't exploitable. Defense regressing when we add curry still doesent make sense.

It does, because Curry isn't game changer on defense. He would do good in most lineups, but in this particular case, he is part of very small unit, with Barbosa as his backcourt teammate, so it's more difficult for him to make any positive difference on D. At the same time he is still making huge impact on offense, so it doesn't look odd overall. If sample would show his small or negative impact on offense,then we should say it's noise.

[lorak]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/720654290839318528[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/720656800509468673[/tweet]

If he has the data, will he publish it?

[SideshowBob]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/720654290839318528[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/720656800509468673[/tweet]

If he has the data, will he publish it?

He already posted recent single-year RAPM (in the Win Prob/RAPM comparison sheet a couple pages back, where Draymond was at +8 while Curry/Leonard/James were at +6).

Multi-year RPM he probably cannot publish. Can't say why for certain, but it could be a contractual issue with ESPN.

Multi-year RAPM he said he would probably post sometime soon.

[MyUniBroDavis]

What do you mean by flaws? He isn't a game changer, but he isn't exploitable. Defense regressing when we add curry still doesent make sense.

It does, because Curry isn't game changer on defense. He would do good in most lineups, but in this particular case, he is part of very small unit, with Barbosa as his backcourt teammate, so it's more difficult for him to make any positive difference on D. At the same time he is still making huge impact on offense, so it doesn't look odd overall. If sample would show his small or negative impact on offense,then we should say it's noise.

But that wouldn't make sense that the lineup is just plain horrible on defense as well.

I mean, adding Bogut would theoretically make the defense better, but in the 93 of 240 minutes Bogut is on the floor as well defensive rating is 118, which is noise Imo.


Also, while draymond is a much better player this year than last year, I'd like to note that with curry and Thompson off the court last year, and green on it, the offensive rtg was less than 100, and this was a larger sample size than the do same version of the data we have for this year, which looking at the shooting splits is very noisy.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Oh, one last note:

I know current green and last years green are different, but in line with the need a go to scorer thing I said before, with klay and steph out but green on from 2014-2015, (the sample size is 3x greater than the same one for this season) the Warriors offense didn't break 100 offensive rtg. This year it increases when klay is off the court, and green is shooting sub 40% so there is more noise.

[SideshowBob]

RPM Updated again. Top 6

Steph +8.92 (7.64/1.28)
Leonard +8.58 (4.07/4.51)
James +8.41 (5.86/2.55)
Green +8.27 (3.54/4.73)
Westbrook +7.89 (6.93/0.96)
Paul +7.84 (6.09/1.75)

Top 6 within 1.08 points of each other.

Regular Season Complete, so final update before Playoffs. Note that this is Single-Year RPM.

Top 10

Steph +8.85
James +8.37
Green +8.28
Leonard +8.20
Paul +8.07
Westbrook +7.58
Lowry +6.33
Durant +6.08
Jokic +6.06
Love +5.41

Green and Leonard remarkably close on both ends

Green +3.77 O | +4.51 D
Leonard +3.91 O | +4.29 D

Offense Top 5:

Curry +7.56
Westbrook +6.69
James +5.95
Paul +5.95
Durant +5.30

[Johnny Firpo]

How about that Jokic kid? Wow.

[therealbig3]

I guess my issue with regards to solely pointing to RAPM as to why Curry can't be in the discussion of GOAT peaks is...it's one stat, in which he looks very good in anyway.

And I kind of feel that RAPM tends to assign credit to Green that should go to Curry. I think Green's role exists because of Curry, and I don't think he would look anywhere close to as good as he does right now without Curry. I know there are small sample sizes of data that says Green has actually done well without Curry, but over a larger sample size, I believe he would see a big dropoff.

For example, his 3pt shooting. He shoots around 40%. But his shots are also WIDE OPEN. Because everyone is paying attention to Curry. If Green's shots are more contested, he probably won't shoot 40% anymore. He probably won't have as many 4 on 3 opportunities anymore (which means he's not going to average over 7 apg anymore). His ability to run a PnR as the ball handler isn't going to be as successful anymore, because defenses can focus more on stopping him, rather than the screener (usually Curry).

I think it's fair to assume that maybe Green is stealing some of that "impact" from Curry in terms of the numbers.

I also think it's kind of weird how the box score tends to get totally dismissed. I like +/-, but I think the box score has value too.

EDIT: that's not to say that I think Green is necessarily overrated. I think he's fantastic. And the portability of a Draymond Green is duly noted. I certainly think he's in the conversation of top 5 this season. IDK if I'd vote for him that high, but he's without a doubt a top 10 player for me.

[RxMidnight]

So what's up with Steph having a lower RPM this season compared to last season when every other metric shows Steph being significantly better in 2016?

[SideshowBob]

JE updated NPI RAPM Single-Year and Multi-Year on APBR through the end of the regular season.

Single-Year - Link
Multi-Year - Link (less weight to older seasons, 3 seasons total)

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Single-Year

Top 10 (O | D)

1. Green +7.93 (4.51 | 3.42)
2. Curry +6.16 (4.65 | 1.51)
3. James +6.07 (4.21 | 1.86)
4. Leonard +5.17 (1.93 | 3.24)
5. Durant + 4.79 (3.99 | 0.79)
6. Paul +4.46 (2.94 | 1.53)
7. Thompson +4.26 (2.92 | 1.34)
8. Lowry +3.91 (2.58 | 1.33)
9. Korver +3.54 (1.20 | 2.34)
10. Westbrook +3.45 (3.15 | 0.31)

Top 5 Offense

1. Curry +4.65
2. Green +4.51
3. James +4.21
4. Durant +3.99
5. Westbrook +3.15



Top 5 Defense

1. Green +3.42
2. Leonard +3.24
3. Snell +3.22
4. Adams +2.91
5. Duncan +2.78

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Multi-Year (less weight to older seasons, 3 seasons total)

Top 10 (O | D)

1. James +7.65 (5.61 | 2.04)
2. Green +7.64 (3.25 | 4.39)
3. Curry +7.47 (5.98 | 1.49)
4. Paul +7.22 (4.77 | 2.45)
5. Durant +6.18 (4.77 | 1.41)
6. Leonard +6.04 (2.00 | 4.04)
7. Rubio +5.38 (2.92 | 2.46)
8. Harden +4.87 (5.04 | -0.17)
9. Korver +4.86 (2.76 | 2.10)
10. Ginobili +4.67 (2.232 | 2.35)

Top 5 Offense

1. Curry +5.98
2. James +5.61
3. Harden +5.04
4. Paul +4.77
5. Durant +4.77

Top 5 Defense

1. Green +4.39
2. Leonard +4.04
3. Cousins +3.35
4. Kidd-Gilchrist +3.35
5. Gobert +3.11

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Green/James barely edging out Curry for top spots in multi-year. Paul not far behind.

Curry tops in offense both sets, but still lags behind Green overall in both sets.

Curry/James nearly dead-even in single-year, in line with their single-year RPM on ESPN

Davis is a small positive in S-Y

Irving is a negative in both sets

[SideshowBob]

In Single-Year:

GSW has 4 players >+3 and 5 positive players

SAS has 14 positive players, 6 players >+2 and 11 players >+1

CLE has 4 players >+2, 8 negative players, 5 players <-1

[Texas Chuck]

In Single-Year:

GSW has 4 players >+3 and 5 positive players

SAS has 14 positive players, 6 players >+2 and 11 players >+1

CLE has 4 players >+2, 8 negative players, 5 players <-1

of course they do....

Curious about the Clippers? I think they might look similar to the Cavs in this regard?

[bondom34]

Adams makes an appearance.

[SideshowBob]

In Single-Year:

GSW has 4 players >+3 and 5 positive players

SAS has 14 positive players, 6 players >+2 and 11 players >+1

CLE has 4 players >+2, 8 negative players, 5 players <-1

of course they do....

Curious about the Clippers? I think they might look similar to the Cavs in this regard?

LAC has 13 players listed.
Three are > +2.5
Four are > +1.5
Four are between 0 and +1
Five are negative
Two are below -1

[SideshowBob]

For reference/comparison here is a folder with J.E.'s 01-15 NPI RAPM, both single-year and multi-year with the same weighting as the 2016 set above.

01-15 NPI RAPM (M-Y, S-Y)

All .txt files in CSV format (Player, Offense, Defense, Net)

[lorak]

KAT very good on offense, but also very bad on defense. Porzignis clearly more valuable than him overall.

[theonlyclutch]

KAT very good on offense, but also very bad on defense. Porzignis clearly more valuable than him overall.

Most valuable rookie is Nikola Jokic, well done DEN..