The 2019-20 Luka Dončić Thread

[leolozon]

Interesting. Luka's currently leading the league in time of possession ahead of Harden.

I don’t understand the use of time of possession. Wouldn’t that give more time to guys bringing up the ball more when it doesn’t have much to do with “real usage”? It takes 4-6 seconds bringing up the ball, multiplied by X times and you end up with many minutes of possession that no one should care about.

You can still compare like for like. Harden brings the ball up almost every possession he’s on the floor. And he’s been the league learner in time of possession for, like, ever. Luka is one of the more ball dominant players we’ve ever seen.

Oh he is one of the most ball dominant guy we have ever seen, just like Harden and Giannis. I just rather use “usage rate”. I saw someone arguing that Giannis wasn’t as ball dominant as other MVP candidates, therefore what he did was more impressive, and the guy used time of possession to show that Giannis wasn’t even in the top 20. Of course, all the top guys in time of possession were guys bringing up the ball which, once again, no one should care about.

Usage rate > time of possession.

[Boarder Patrol]

Just watched a good hunk of Doncic highlights after a busy few weeks. His sense of the space and the momentum of defenders, his ability to almost play defenders off each other and coax them to where he wants them, is incredible. And it lets him score/drive almost deliberately which allows him to turn on the jets when he wants to.

[King Ken]

Just watched a good hunk of Doncic highlights after a busy few weeks. His sense of the space and the momentum of defenders, his ability to almost play defenders off each other and coax them to where he wants them, is incredible. And it lets him score/drive almost deliberately which allows him to turn on the jets when he wants to.

I hear people compare him to Larry and Nash but he plays like a young CP3 and current James Harden. Not the shooter James is of course but that's who he plays like. Larry wasn't doing what Luka is doing. Luka is doing what CP3 used to do in New Orleans.

Trae is more like Nash, Luka is more like CP3 in how they set up others. Luka also does the CP3 dribble, dribble, dribble. Those are two of the best analytically prepped players in NBA history.

[King Ken]

I feel like it's more the system the Mavs play is not so entirely dependant on one player volume scoring. The system when it's working well, the ball moves around like it did this game and everyone gets opportunities to become the hot hand so to speak. They beat Denver with neither Luka or KP scoring more than 12 points.

Interesting. Luka's currently leading the league in time of possession ahead of Harden.

Luka probes more whereas Harden either shoots the three or straight drives to the rim.

Harden is the king of probes. I live in Houston, I was at the game a couple of nights ago, he is tremendous at probing the defender and lulling them into a weak spot.

[Aido]

I for one am anxious to see how Doncic does in the playoffs, hopefully his bag of tricks is a bit less predictable than someone like harden. Lukas still got room to grow as a passer despite being one of the best in the world anyway. I personally think its not outlandish to say that we might be seeing a player with goat level offence potential

The problem Harden found in the playoffs is that fouls are not called as much and he takes too many iso 3s that are difficult to do with better defense.
I actually think predictability is a strength and my main concern with the expectations put on Luka to lead a championship run is that he gets by using unpredictability as a strength.

The way unpredictability hurts a player is if the players teammates don't expect what they will do. It's a fine line to be unpredictable to your opponent but predictable to your teammates so they can get in position to help you. Being too unpredictable is likely the reason Kyries teams seem to do worse with him on the court even though he's so incredibly skilled.

The absolute best a player can be offensively is predictable but still efficient.

I'm not saying Luka is unpredictable to his teammates, I just don't know yet. I'll be interested to see in the playoffs.

i havent delved into the data too much and i certainly havent watched all the games in the playoffs but just a quick glance at the stats over the last few years fta/fg increases across the league so theyre clearly atleast calling fouls (14-19 that is, its not a massive sample and maybe this is due to other factors), my best explanation would be A) theyre not called for harden or B) hardens foul drawing tendencies are easy to gameplan for (could be a bit of both) but harden seems to be more predictable and has less options, hes developing a floater which is good but other than that he sorta just tries the same thing. I definitely see tendency predictabilty as a problem i see it as one of the sloane jazz's bigger problems, if memory serves in an old post by elgee about stockton references this, i believe it was a footnote on how by whatever way he was quantifying playoff decline alot of the jazz ended up as some of the biggest decliners in the playoffs.

[Aido]

I for one am anxious to see how Doncic does in the playoffs, hopefully his bag of tricks is a bit less predictable than someone like harden. Lukas still got room to grow as a passer despite being one of the best in the world anyway. I personally think its not outlandish to say that we might be seeing a player with goat level offence potential

The problem Harden found in the playoffs is that fouls are not called as much and he takes too many iso 3s that are difficult to do with better defense.
I actually think predictability is a strength and my main concern with the expectations put on Luka to lead a championship run is that he gets by using unpredictability as a strength.

The way unpredictability hurts a player is if the players teammates don't expect what they will do. It's a fine line to be unpredictable to your opponent but predictable to your teammates so they can get in position to help you. Being too unpredictable is likely the reason Kyries teams seem to do worse with him on the court even though he's so incredibly skilled.

The absolute best a player can be offensively is predictable but still efficient.

I'm not saying Luka is unpredictable to his teammates, I just don't know yet. I'll be interested to see in the playoffs.

i havent delved into the data too much and i certainly havent watched all the games in the playoffs but just a quick glance at the stats over the last few years fta/fg increases across the league so theyre clearly atleast calling fouls (14-19 that is, its not a massive sample and maybe this is due to other factors), my best explanation would be A) theyre not called for harden or B) hardens foul drawing tendencies are easy to gameplan for (could be a bit of both) but harden seems to be more predictable and has less options, hes developing a floater which is good but other than that he sorta just tries the same thing. I definitely see tendency predictabilty as a problem i see it as one of the sloane jazz's bigger problems, if memory serves in an old post by elgee about stockton references this, i believe it was a footnote on how by whatever way he was quantifying playoff decline alot of the jazz ended up as some of the biggest decliners in the playoffs.

also hopefully unlike harden he remembers just how to shoot in the playoffs, if he can retain the balance of scoring and playmaking instead of focusing on scoring i think he'll possibly fair better than the lows of harden.

[limbo]

When is BSPN (and other American sports media) going to stop with these forced comparisons between Luka and LeBron.

I get it, LeBron was Luka's idol, hence he took a lot from his game by watching him. Great, move on. Hopefully i won't have to listen to this the whole season.

[Peregrine01]

I don't think it's unreasonable to compare Doncic to Harden as offensive players. Harden is clearly the better scorer while Luka is clearly the better playmaker in my mind.

[Doctor MJ]

I feel like it's more the system the Mavs play is not so entirely dependant on one player volume scoring. The system when it's working well, the ball moves around like it did this game and everyone gets opportunities to become the hot hand so to speak. They beat Denver with neither Luka or KP scoring more than 12 points.

Interesting. Luka's currently leading the league in time of possession ahead of Harden.

I don’t understand the use of time of possession. Wouldn’t that give more time to guys bringing up the ball more when it doesn’t have much to do with “real usage”? It takes 4-6 seconds bringing up the ball, multiplied by X times and you end up with many minutes of possession that no one should care about.

I'm not suggesting that "Time of Possession" defines "ball dominance", but I do find that information indicative.

[Doctor MJ]

When is BSPN (and other American sports media) going to stop with these forced comparisons between Luka and LeBron.

I get it, LeBron was Luka's idol, hence he took a lot from his game by watching him. Great, move on. Hopefully i won't have to listen to this the whole season.

Afraid of backlash given that that's such a high bar? I get it if you are, but Luka's journey and uncanny growth reminds of LeBron like no one else we've seen since LeBron and he largely plays the game within the style LeBron popularized. It's hard for me not to make connections.

[Dr Positivity]

Everyone knows Mavericks have the top ranked offense, but they've also had two of the most dominant defensive stretches I've seen this year (Their run against the Lakers last year, and they killed the Raptors on defense when they beat them for a stretch). Not sure if I just tuned into the right games, but I would say they are legit, and it's possible Porzingis will get going. As it stands he's pretty close to being a great 3 and D center already. I would bet on 50 Ws+

[Heej]

Porzingis has a chance to be a top 5 defensive center in the league imo. Guys really just cannot finish over or through him at the rim, and if he can get more mobility back he may become an above average switch defender in a pinch. His offensive game right now is really disappointing though. Very timid when it comes to putting the ball on the floor and going to the cup

[Dr Spaceman]

When is BSPN (and other American sports media) going to stop with these forced comparisons between Luka and LeBron.

I get it, LeBron was Luka's idol, hence he took a lot from his game by watching him. Great, move on. Hopefully i won't have to listen to this the whole season.

Afraid of backlash given that that's such a high bar? I get it if you are, but Luka's journey and uncanny growth reminds of LeBron like no one else we've seen since LeBron and he largely plays the game within the style LeBron popularized. It's hard for me not to make connections.

Most of the times I fee l sad in life are when my expectations are too high.

[Oscar9992]

Luka Doncic named as a "Breakout of the Year" by Sports Illustrated.

Read on Twitter

[agentofatlas]

Luka Doncic named as a "Breakout of the Year" by Sports Illustrated.

Read on Twitter

The season is not even over lol. Man sometimes I feel like everyone is trying to jinx the team.

[Pelly24]

Doncic is deceptively quick (although I think his "lack of athleticism" is overblown personally)... he blew by AD off the dribble a few times last night.

It's because he's got a huskier build. He's really not below average in any one facet. He's got very good feet that allow him to change directions quickly and decelerate, etc. He's also much quicker than someone like D. Lo Russell, Curry, etc. He's a decent leaper. He'd be like a 7.5 out of 10 with athleticism.

[Doctor MJ]

When is BSPN (and other American sports media) going to stop with these forced comparisons between Luka and LeBron.

I get it, LeBron was Luka's idol, hence he took a lot from his game by watching him. Great, move on. Hopefully i won't have to listen to this the whole season.

Afraid of backlash given that that's such a high bar? I get it if you are, but Luka's journey and uncanny growth reminds of LeBron like no one else we've seen since LeBron and he largely plays the game within the style LeBron popularized. It's hard for me not to make connections.

Most of the times I fee l sad in life are when my expectations are too high.

This was more open and authentic soul-bearing than I was expecting, but there's certainly truth in it.

Seguing back to the basketball: I think it used to bother me more the idea that I fell too much in love with a particular player's game, but now I feel fine as long as I can be critical of what comes after. I think that I feel less afraid of being wrong now that I've spent enough time being right and enough time being wrong to move forward from each.

But I still struggle with my expectations. I rarely make as much progress on a thing as I hope to, and the situation compounds when I'm dependent on others.

[limbo]

It feels unfair to make sweeping statements about Porzinigs considering he's coming back from a massive layoff and also having to adjust to a new team/role. Not entirely sure if he himself knows how to best use his talents with the style and players the Mavs are running, so often times he just settles for jumpers.

At the same time, though, it seems to me a lot of people are wishing him out to be a player he's not. I've just watched the four musketeers on TNT discuss how the Mavs should use Porzingis more on offense, give him the ball more in the low post etc. and i'm like, dude, he's just not that type of player...

Never mind the fact Dallas has the best offense in the league, so obviously what they're doing is working, but Porzingis doesn't strike me as a guy worthy of getting a lot of time on-ball. I know he can pull out some impressive moves for a 7-footer, but ultimately, he's still way too slow, he's physically weak, doesn't draw fouls and is a poor passer. He's a 'break-in-case-of-emergency' type offensive player, if Luka has foul trouble or the offense in general is struggling, then you can give him the ball and see if he can do something (which would probably be hope he gets hot shooting the ball, because his other offensive skills are subpar).

Let's make it clear. He's not Dirk, yet a lot of people talk like he is or even will be when he gets a season back under his belt. Dirk was mobile for a 7-footer, could put it on the floor, had an array of moves, could attack the basket and draw fouls and was a smart passer. Porzingis not so much.

Same goes defensively. Yes, he's a good rim protector because of his size and length, but what else? Someone mentioned they can see him be a Top 5 defender in the league? How? I just watched AD maul him in consecutive possessions to get easy buckets in the paint. He made AD look like prime Shaq. KP is too weak physically, he just bounces off stronger players and doesn't have the footwork to recover. If teams decide to go small against Porzingis they should have a field day. He's not good at defending outside the paint. Not quick or strong enough.

Like i said. I'll reserve any conclusive judgement probably at least until a couple months into next season, but i'm seeing a lot of holes in his game. I just think the most optimal use of his skillset offensively is have him screen the ball-handler or spot up behind the 3pt line. I don't think he's good enough to warrant feeding him in the low/high post for iso scoring, much less to run an offense.

Too bad, because if KP was actually an all-star, as he was advertised, this Mavs team with Luka playing the way he is, and the bench being one of the best in the league, this team could really be challenging for the #1 seed in the West. Imagine a guy like Millsap or Horford on this team instead of KP.

[lavta]

I get it, LeBron was Luka's idol,

As a sidenote, this isn't even the case really. Doncic's idol is Spanoulis whose stepback and jersey number he copied. Then he goes to the draft and gets asked "who's your favourite player" and he says "Vassilis Spanoulis" and the NBA media looks at him confused and he says "LeBron in the NBA". Then on he just says LeBron. Maybe Duffy advised him as well.

This happened to Giannis as well, there was an interview in which he was asked his favourite player and he says Diamantidis and then he's never asked lol.

NBA marketing only and solely happens through players and there's this narrative tool they use where they make sure people know every great player's favourite player. "Remember Kobe? He was great. Now Harden, Durant, Westbrook are great who idolised him". Kobe gone through the same stuff as him idolising Jordan. Also Doncic is the first great player that they can point to as an idoliser of LeBron so it's an important marketing benchmark. We will see this with Steph soon, they already tried with Trae Young somewhat. But whenever an elite off the dribble shooting point guard who they can actually point to as an idoliser of Steph, just wait for all the marketing you see now with Doncic-LeBron with whoever-Steph when that time comes.

I dislike this stuff as well but such narrative tools and many others are the stuff NBA builds its marketing with. Gotta accept that it won't end soon.

[Doctor MJ]

It feels unfair to make sweeping statements about Porzinigs considering he's coming back from a massive layoff and also having to adjust to a new team/role. Not entirely sure if he himself knows how to best use his talents with the style and players the Mavs are running, so often times he just settles for jumpers.

At the same time, though, it seems to me a lot of people are wishing him out to be a player he's not. I've just watched the four musketeers on TNT discuss how the Mavs should use Porzingis more on offense, give him the ball more in the low post etc. and i'm like, dude, he's just not that type of player...

Never mind the fact Dallas has the best offense in the league, so obviously what they're doing is working, but Porzingis doesn't strike me as a guy worthy of getting a lot of time on-ball. I know he can pull out some impressive moves for a 7-footer, but ultimately, he's still way too slow, he's physically weak, doesn't draw fouls and is a poor passer. He's a 'break-in-case-of-emergency' type offensive player, if Luka has foul trouble or the offense in general is struggling, then you can give him the ball and see if he can do something (which would probably be hope he gets hot shooting the ball, because his other offensive skills are subpar).

Let's make it clear. He's not Dirk, yet a lot of people talk like he is or even will be when he gets a season back under his belt. Dirk was mobile for a 7-footer, could put it on the floor, had an array of moves, could attack the basket and draw fouls and was a smart passer. Porzingis not so much.

I'm not sure what I find most remarkable about the notion that the Mavs should suspend what they are doing to to help KP get comfy. Certainly the fact that they went from a below average offense to the best offense in the league this year should make them realize this is ridiculous. They just figured out something that finally works and you want to stop that to build something around a guy who isn't a big part of that solution? Bizarre when you think about it.

I think though there's a deeper era-infused bias they tend to have based around the idea that a big scoring big man is just about the best thing in the world. They don't quite understand that it really doesn't matter whether its KP or Embiid or KAT, they aren't going to be able to impact the team's offense like a top tier handle-from-perimeter guy, and thus if you have one of those guys, obviously everyone else just needs to get in-line.