Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

[LukaTheGOAT]

What do you think about Robinson vs Giannis after this video? I find them quite comparable, with the difference that I think Admiral is better suited to 2nd option role on offense than Antetokumpo.

By the way, after watching Robinson video I really wish Ben didn't make videos about pre-merger players. I'd love to see a true analysis of Wilt's footage made by him without any narrative (same with Russell). I'd love to see him examing West and Oscar offense and defense as well.

He said in a comment section somewhere, the reason why West and Oscar is largely due to the lack of film available.

[LukaTheGOAT]

What do you think about Robinson vs Giannis after this video? I find them quite comparable, with the difference that I think Admiral is better suited to 2nd option role on offense than Antetokumpo.

By the way, after watching Robinson video I really wish Ben didn't make videos about pre-merger players. I'd love to see a true analysis of Wilt's footage made by him without any narrative (same with Russell). I'd love to see him examing West and Oscar offense and defense as well.

I'd say the question remains with Giannis whether he's any better suited to alpha against playoff defense than Robinson. He's shown skills Robinson didn't have, but to this point he's proven to be pretty stoppable.

I'm surprised people are so frustrated with that first video. The Russell/Wilt comparison is where real advanced player comparison begin so it makes sense to use that to set the stage with that. Clearly people think he just made an anti-Wilt video, but that's not what he was actually doing.

As far as more detailed player analysis from before the merger, well, if you can help him find enough footage, that may well happen in a future project.

Yeah's that the thing. For his era, I think Robinson's defense is better than Giannis and defense being naturally additive helps him play with better players which Ben really cares about. FreetheDevil said somewhere in this thread that Robinson's PS defenses weren't very resilient, and I don't know enough about that to comment, but definitely feel like if his defense is similar in the RS and PS, then Robinson is better there.

And yeah, I feel like Giannis is probably the better suited guy to be the #1 dude because with his handle he and slashing, he is creating so much for teammates in the PS (he had a 1.1 PlayVal in the PS, idk how much it is inflated by the Orlando series but I do think he creates more shots). However, Giannis at the moment does not look like the ideal #1 and therefore I think the skills both have for playing off-ball matters more, so therefore Robinson is more impressive on offense as well. Like I feel like as of now, Robinson is a bigger lob threat, much better floor spacer, likely a better passer for a guy who will not always have the ball, and might just be a smarter basketball player.

I'm not giving up on Giannis yet though, and I also find myself wondering if Giannis was deployed more in an AD role where he plays more like a traditional big and doesn't have to create from the 3 point line, if we are potentially seeing Giannis with rosier glasses.

[freethedevil]

What do you think about Robinson vs Giannis after this video? I find them quite comparable, with the difference that I think Admiral is better suited to 2nd option role on offense than Antetokumpo.

By the way, after watching Robinson video I really wish Ben didn't make videos about pre-merger players. I'd love to see a true analysis of Wilt's footage made by him without any narrative (same with Russell). I'd love to see him examing West and Oscar offense and defense as well.

I'd say the question remains with Giannis whether he's any better suited to alpha against playoff defense than Robinson. He's shown skills Robinson didn't have, but to this point he's proven to be pretty stoppable.

I'm surprised people are so frustrated with that first video. The Russell/Wilt comparison is where real advanced player comparison begin so it makes sense to use that to set the stage with that. Clearly people think he just made an anti-Wilt video, but that's not what he was actually doing.

As far as more detailed player analysis from before the merger, well, if you can help him find enough footage, that may well happen in a future project.

Thing about tobinsons is its not just that his offenses plummeted against half decent opposition against any half-decent opponent again and again, his --defenses-- aslo consistently plummeted against any tp 10 offense, and were mediocre against the rest.

Giannis in the first postseason of his prime probably already peaked higher offensibve;y and defensively both form a team success perspective and an inudviuda l perspective than robinson did at like any point in his postseason of his career.

[freethedevil]

I like seeing content about Robinson but wish Taylor didn’t have him on there because Robinson’s peak fall into an ambiguous tier.

If 1994-96 David Robinson is on there, denying 1981-83 Moses Malone and 1989-91 Charles Barkley doesn’t make sense. Also it’ll be also questionable if he leaves out any of Karl Malone, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Knowing Taylor, I’m sure he’ll leave out at least two or three of these names though.

I think he'll leave out all of them except Curry, so no two or three but nine. D-Rob peak is higher than Moses and Barkley, that's why he missed them, this is just ~15 greatest peaks. None of the players you mentioned is in this range.

I agree but not everyone does.

The truth is no matter who he leaves out there will be people complaining because Humans love to complain. I do my best to not voice my frustrations on projects like this because of the amount of work put in and because there is already enough room for positive conversation.

If people want to complain about this then they likely complain in all sorts of facets of life, unfortunately.

Not reallu syre what you're tyring to get at with "he put work in this." He gets paid for all this content he creates an d is makin g it because he wants to.

Cirticism is just as valid as content, so harping on people for doing it seems pretty wierd to me..

[Doctor MJ]

What do you think about Robinson vs Giannis after this video? I find them quite comparable, with the difference that I think Admiral is better suited to 2nd option role on offense than Antetokumpo.

By the way, after watching Robinson video I really wish Ben didn't make videos about pre-merger players. I'd love to see a true analysis of Wilt's footage made by him without any narrative (same with Russell). I'd love to see him examing West and Oscar offense and defense as well.

I'd say the question remains with Giannis whether he's any better suited to alpha against playoff defense than Robinson. He's shown skills Robinson didn't have, but to this point he's proven to be pretty stoppable.

I'm surprised people are so frustrated with that first video. The Russell/Wilt comparison is where real advanced player comparison begin so it makes sense to use that to set the stage with that. Clearly people think he just made an anti-Wilt video, but that's not what he was actually doing.

As far as more detailed player analysis from before the merger, well, if you can help him find enough footage, that may well happen in a future project.

Thing about tobinsons is its not just that his offenses plummeted against half decent opposition against any half-decent opponent again and again, his --defenses-- aslo consistently plummeted against any tp 10 offense, and were mediocre against the rest.

Giannis in the first postseason of his prime probably already peaked higher offensibve;y and defensively both form a team success perspective and an inudviuda l perspective than robinson did at like any point in his postseason of his career.

So we're pretending the '99 Spurs defense wasn't about Robinson because Duncan was there now? C'mon.

Re: Giannis in the first postseason of his prime...lost 4 straight games to end it. The Bucks got figured out, swept the rest of the way, came back the next year, got trucked by a 5 seed. I'm really not looking to damn Giannis because I'm hoping he can turn the corner, but the start of his playoff prime is frankly very similar in feel to Robinson for me.

[freethedevil]

I'd say the question remains with Giannis whether he's any better suited to alpha against playoff defense than Robinson. He's shown skills Robinson didn't have, but to this point he's proven to be pretty stoppable.

I'm surprised people are so frustrated with that first video. The Russell/Wilt comparison is where real advanced player comparison begin so it makes sense to use that to set the stage with that. Clearly people think he just made an anti-Wilt video, but that's not what he was actually doing.

As far as more detailed player analysis from before the merger, well, if you can help him find enough footage, that may well happen in a future project.

Thing about tobinsons is its not just that his offenses plummeted against half decent opposition against any half-decent opponent again and again, his --defenses-- aslo consistently plummeted against any tp 10 offense, and were mediocre against the rest.

Giannis in the first postseason of his prime probably already peaked higher offensibve;y and defensively both form a team success perspective and an inudviuda l perspective than robinson did at like any point in his postseason of his career.

So we're pretending the '99 Spurs defense wasn't about Robinson because Duncan was there now? C'mon.

Re: Giannis in the first postseason of his prime...lost 4 straight games to end it. The Bucks got figured out, swept the rest of the way, came back the next year, got trucked by a 5 seed. I'm really not looking to damn Giannis because I'm hoping he can turn the corner, but the start of his playoff prime is frankly very similar in feel to Robinson for me.

Is 99 robinson the one you want to compare to giannis?

And again, no, not really, becase robinson's team got murked on both ends against 99% of opponents. Giannis broke that bar like, on his first try.

Giannis could literally retire right now, and his track record in the postseason would be better than robinson. The comparison makes like no sense.

[Odinn21]

It's not about mine, but Ben's greatest peaks. He's clearly higher on D-Rob than Moses or other players you mentioned, and the same goes for Curry-Wade comparison. I also included Wilt and Russell to this top 15, but we can assume he ignored them as it was before merger, and created first video to show methodology. If you add D-Rob and Curry to the list (and Walton), you already have 14 players. But obviously I don't know if it's 15 or more or less, also I initially missed it's only since the merger, so Oscar, West or Dr J are also out for this reason. So I agree it's too early to forseen and players you mentioned can still be part of the project, but D-Rob video is not a good example, we know Ben is clearly higher on him than these you mentioned.
Also don't take my post as offensive, it was just to mention D-Rob case and my guessing which players probably we're going to see. Of course I might be wrong.

I have my disagreements with Taylor and like anyone else, you or me, he’s not above criticism.
Heck, him being critical of the old approach made him so good and popular.
And the way I got response looked like that it was bad to criticize his work.

On a personal level, I can confidently say that I put immense effort to my process, probably the biggest effort on the NBA history by a non-US follower. I had a massive full game archive which got destroyed. I still have tens of GBs of MS Excel documents with notes, full game logs for majority of the NBA Finals before 1980, shot-rebounding charts of notable players, playbooks of teams and how they utilized those playbooks against changing defensive schemes, etc, not just some formulas to see how a top 10 xxx would look like with different weightings or that kind of stuff. And I stopped with all that because I wasn’t getting paid for it. It took my time greatly with zero money return. Now I rely on my impressions stuck with me and easy notes.
Taylor however is making money out of these stuff and knowing that some of his personal assumptions/notes are just inaccurate makes me more critical than average follower of him.

[70sFan]

What do you think about Robinson vs Giannis after this video? I find them quite comparable, with the difference that I think Admiral is better suited to 2nd option role on offense than Antetokumpo.

By the way, after watching Robinson video I really wish Ben didn't make videos about pre-merger players. I'd love to see a true analysis of Wilt's footage made by him without any narrative (same with Russell). I'd love to see him examing West and Oscar offense and defense as well.

He said in a comment section somewhere, the reason why West and Oscar is largely due to the lack of film available.

I know that, although I think there is enough film to make some conclusion. It's not like we have a lot of 1977-79 Kareem footage, although it's true that more games exist.

[70sFan]

I'm surprised people are so frustrated with that first video. The Russell/Wilt comparison is where real advanced player comparison begin so it makes sense to use that to set the stage with that. Clearly people think he just made an anti-Wilt video, but that's not what he was actually doing.

I think you misunderstood me, I'm well aware of what Ben wanted to show in the first video. I just wish he did player analysis for Wilt and Russell, but I understand why he didn't.

As far as more detailed player analysis from before the merger, well, if you can help him find enough footage, that may well happen in a future project.

I already did, a lot of footage seen in Russell/Wilt, Kareem and Walton footage are from my collection

[70sFan]

Could anyone show stats that suggest Robinson's led teams did below expectations on defensive end against decent offensive teams?

[Odinn21]

Could anyone show stats that suggest Robinson's led teams did below expectations on defensive end against decent offensive teams?

The +2.0 or better rORtg teams and 1995 Rockets (included this because they had an all time great offensive postseason run) that Robinson and the Spurs faced;

The Blazers in 1990; +2.4 rORtg, 110.5 ORtg r. season and 107.2 ORtg against the Spurs
The Warriors in 1991; +4.0 rORtg, 111.9 ORtg r. season and 111.7 ORtg against the Spurs
The Suns in 1993; +5.3 rORtg, 113.3 ORtg r. season and 109.9 ORtg against the Spurs
The Jazz in 1994; +2.3 rORtg, 108.6 ORtg r. season and 110.6 ORtg against the Spurs
The Rockets in 1995; +1.4 rORtg, 109.7 ORtg r. season and 110.6 ORtg against the Spurs
The Suns in 1996; +2.7 rORtg, 110.3 ORtg r. season and 109.3 ORtg against the Spurs
The Jazz in 1996; +5.7 rORtg, 113.3 ORtg r. season and 114.1 ORtg against the Spurs

I'd say these results do not correlate with general perception about Robinson's defensive qualities. The only particularly good result/number is 1990 Blazers series and from 1994 to 1996 (which is the time frame usually considered as Robinson's extended peak), the only time (out of 4 series) a team didn't improve their ORtg was the Suns in '96 and they were 41W - 0.28 SRS team, they weren't a strong team like the Jazz or the Rockets.

[70sFan]

Thank you Odinn!

When we compare how 1990-96 Spurs did in playoffs compared to 2018-20 Bucks, it's important to remember that Giannis has MUCH better team around him than Admiral had. So even if Bucks indeed did better in playoffs, it doesn't mean that Giannis is better postseason player than Admiral.

[freethedevil]

It's not about mine, but Ben's greatest peaks. He's clearly higher on D-Rob than Moses or other players you mentioned, and the same goes for Curry-Wade comparison. I also included Wilt and Russell to this top 15, but we can assume he ignored them as it was before merger, and created first video to show methodology. If you add D-Rob and Curry to the list (and Walton), you already have 14 players. But obviously I don't know if it's 15 or more or less, also I initially missed it's only since the merger, so Oscar, West or Dr J are also out for this reason. So I agree it's too early to forseen and players you mentioned can still be part of the project, but D-Rob video is not a good example, we know Ben is clearly higher on him than these you mentioned.
Also don't take my post as offensive, it was just to mention D-Rob case and my guessing which players probably we're going to see. Of course I might be wrong.

I have my disagreements with Taylor and like anyone else, you or me, he’s not above criticism.
Heck, him being critical of the old approach made him so good and popular.
And the way I got response looked like that it was bad to criticize his work.

On a personal level, I can confidently say that I put immense effort to my process, probably the biggest effort on the NBA history by a non-US follower. I had a massive full game archive which got destroyed. I still have tens of GBs of MS Excel documents with notes, full game logs for majority of the NBA Finals before 1980, shot-rebounding charts of notable players, playbooks of teams and how they utilized those playbooks against changing defensive schemes, etc, not just some formulas to see how a top 10 xxx would look like with different weightings or that kind of stuff. And I stopped with all that because I wasn’t getting paid for it. It took my time greatly with zero money return. Now I rely on my impressions stuck with me and easy notes.
Taylor however is making money out of these stuff and knowing that some of his personal assumptions/notes are just inaccurate makes me more critical than average follower of him.

Criticism is itself a form of content creation, shaming people for cricitism is synaonymus with shaming creators.

[freethedevil]

Thank you Odinn!

When we compare how 1990-96 Spurs did in playoffs compared to 2018-20 Bucks, it's important to remember that Giannis has MUCH better team around him than Admiral had. So even if Bucks indeed did better in playoffs, it doesn't mean that Giannis is better postseason player than Admiral.

Based on what?

The bucks played .500 ball without Giannis and the one supposed advantage over robinson's cast, dissapeared in the playoffs vs botht he celtics and the raptors.

Thr bucks were not a much better cast based on anything but their greater performance with giannis which suggests that the difference is not ebtween their casts, but between giannis and david robinson.

[70sFan]

Thank you Odinn!

When we compare how 1990-96 Spurs did in playoffs compared to 2018-20 Bucks, it's important to remember that Giannis has MUCH better team around him than Admiral had. So even if Bucks indeed did better in playoffs, it doesn't mean that Giannis is better postseason player than Admiral.

Based on what?

The bucks played .500 ball without Giannis and the one supposed advantage over robinson's cast, dissapeared in the playoffs vs botht he celtics and the raptors.

Thr bucks were not a much better cast based on anything but their greater performance with giannis which suggests that the difference is not ebtween their casts, but between giannis and david robinson.

Playing .500 ball without by far your best player isn't bad at all. When Robinson missed 14 games in 1992, Spurs went 4-9 which is much worse than .500 ball.

In both 2019 and 2020 Bucks were +3 SRS without Giannis. How is that a bad result? In your beloved 2019 playoffs, Bucks were +7 SRS without Giannis by the way. To his credit, they were -0.2 SRS without him in 2020 playoffs, but they weren't good with him either (+2.4).

[sansterre]

I crunched some of these in the Greatest Player Discussion so I thought I'd repost them here:

Here are Robinson's Playoff Numbers:

Offensive Rating Pre-Duncan (RS / PS): +1.87 / +0.92
Defensive Rating Pre-Duncan (RS / PS): -3.07 / -3.27

So, assuming his teammate performance stayed constant (quite an assumption), his team's offensive performance dropped by almost a point in the playoffs, but his teams' defenses actually got slightly better. So as much of a defensive world-beater as he was in the regular season (and a ton of things point to him being at that level) he (implicitly) was better in the playoffs.

In these years, in the regular season, he averaged 54.4% of his team's combined VORP. This is a really, really, really high number. In the playoffs he averaged only 44.6% of his team's combined VORP. So his numbers fell off (as I figured they would). But 44.6% is still a ton. And here's a neat stat:

Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs only made the 1st Round: 53.6%
Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs made the 2nd Round: 42.0%
Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs made the Conference Finals: 35.1%

In other words, when his teammates played better (or were better), which shrank his VORP share, his teams went farther. This, again, is a long way of saying that Robinson's teammates were very weak, and he alone could really only take them so far.

And here's the followup data:

1990: (3 games against a 108 OR + 7 games against a 110.5 OR) = 109.8 expected, 106.1 allowed, -3.65 rating
1991: 4 games against a 111.9 OR, 111.6 allowed, -0.30 Rating
1993: (4 games against a 108.3 OR + 6 games against a 113.3 OR) = 111.3 expected, 107 allowed, -4.3 rating
1994: 4 games against a 108.6 OR, 110.3 allowed, +1.7 Rating
1995: (3 games against a 109.1 OR + 6 games against a 109.1 OR + 6 games against a 109.7 OR) = 109.3 expected, 103.1 allowed, -6.24 Rating
1996: (4 games against a 110.3 OR + 6 games against a 113.3 OR) = 112.1 expected, 108.5 allowed, -3.6 rating

I'm not saying it's super-dispositive; I was just looking for evidence that his defense dropped in the playoffs using team measures and I couldn't find it. If I was looking for scaling falloff I'd check this (opponent offensive average vs playoff defensive rating):

1990: Opposition is +0.35, Rating is -3.65
1991: Opposition is +4.00, Rating is -0.30
1993: Opposition is +3.30, Rating is -4.30
1994: Opposition is +2.30, Rating is +1.70
1995: Opposition is +1.04, Rating is -6.24
1996: Opposition is +4.50, Rating is -0.60

Or, sorted by opposing offenses (best on top):

1996: Opposition is +4.50, Rating is -0.60
1991: Opposition is +4.00, Rating is -0.30
1993: Opposition is +3.30, Rating is -4.30
1994: Opposition is +2.30, Rating is +1.70
1995: Opposition is +1.04, Rating is -6.24
1990: Opposition is +0.35, Rating is -3.65

I think there's reason to think that there is *some* scaling at work. The aggregate is even, but it seems like his defense improves in the playoffs against weaker offenses, and gets worse against stronger defenses (and this is adjusted for opposition). The effect isn't huge but it definitely seems to be there.

Of course, I haven't looked at other players/teams in this way, so for all I know some degree of scaling against quality offenses in the playoffs is normal. It does look like there's something there; I'm just not sure what it means.

[70sFan]

I crunched some of these in the Greatest Player Discussion so I thought I'd repost them here:

Here are Robinson's Playoff Numbers:

Offensive Rating Pre-Duncan (RS / PS): +1.87 / +0.92
Defensive Rating Pre-Duncan (RS / PS): -3.07 / -3.27

So, assuming his teammate performance stayed constant (quite an assumption), his team's offensive performance dropped by almost a point in the playoffs, but his teams' defenses actually got slightly better. So as much of a defensive world-beater as he was in the regular season (and a ton of things point to him being at that level) he (implicitly) was better in the playoffs.

In these years, in the regular season, he averaged 54.4% of his team's combined VORP. This is a really, really, really high number. In the playoffs he averaged only 44.6% of his team's combined VORP. So his numbers fell off (as I figured they would). But 44.6% is still a ton. And here's a neat stat:

Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs only made the 1st Round: 53.6%
Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs made the 2nd Round: 42.0%
Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs made the Conference Finals: 35.1%

In other words, when his teammates played better (or were better), which shrank his VORP share, his teams went farther. This, again, is a long way of saying that Robinson's teammates were very weak, and he alone could really only take them so far.

And here's the followup data:

1990: (3 games against a 108 OR + 7 games against a 110.5 OR) = 109.8 expected, 106.1 allowed, -3.65 rating
1991: 4 games against a 111.9 OR, 111.6 allowed, -0.30 Rating
1993: (4 games against a 108.3 OR + 6 games against a 113.3 OR) = 111.3 expected, 107 allowed, -4.3 rating
1994: 4 games against a 108.6 OR, 110.3 allowed, +1.7 Rating
1995: (3 games against a 109.1 OR + 6 games against a 109.1 OR + 6 games against a 109.7 OR) = 109.3 expected, 103.1 allowed, -6.24 Rating
1996: (4 games against a 110.3 OR + 6 games against a 113.3 OR) = 112.1 expected, 108.5 allowed, -3.6 rating

I'm not saying it's super-dispositive; I was just looking for evidence that his defense dropped in the playoffs using team measures and I couldn't find it. If I was looking for scaling falloff I'd check this (opponent offensive average vs playoff defensive rating):

1990: Opposition is +0.35, Rating is -3.65
1991: Opposition is +4.00, Rating is -0.30
1993: Opposition is +3.30, Rating is -4.30
1994: Opposition is +2.30, Rating is +1.70
1995: Opposition is +1.04, Rating is -6.24
1996: Opposition is +4.50, Rating is -0.60

Or, sorted by opposing offenses (best on top):

1996: Opposition is +4.50, Rating is -0.60
1991: Opposition is +4.00, Rating is -0.30
1993: Opposition is +3.30, Rating is -4.30
1994: Opposition is +2.30, Rating is +1.70
1995: Opposition is +1.04, Rating is -6.24
1990: Opposition is +0.35, Rating is -3.65

I think there's reason to think that there is *some* scaling at work. The aggregate is even, but it seems like his defense improves in the playoffs against weaker offenses, and gets worse against stronger defenses (and this is adjusted for opposition). The effect isn't huge but it definitely seems to be there.

Of course, I haven't looked at other players/teams in this way, so for all I know some degree of scaling against quality offenses in the playoffs is normal. It does look like there's something there; I'm just not sure what it means.

Thank you for even deeper analysis! Do you know if that's typical for most teams in playoffs? Have you ever compared that to other ATG defensive anchors?

[sansterre]

I crunched some of these in the Greatest Player Discussion so I thought I'd repost them here:

Here are Robinson's Playoff Numbers:

Offensive Rating Pre-Duncan (RS / PS): +1.87 / +0.92
Defensive Rating Pre-Duncan (RS / PS): -3.07 / -3.27

So, assuming his teammate performance stayed constant (quite an assumption), his team's offensive performance dropped by almost a point in the playoffs, but his teams' defenses actually got slightly better. So as much of a defensive world-beater as he was in the regular season (and a ton of things point to him being at that level) he (implicitly) was better in the playoffs.

In these years, in the regular season, he averaged 54.4% of his team's combined VORP. This is a really, really, really high number. In the playoffs he averaged only 44.6% of his team's combined VORP. So his numbers fell off (as I figured they would). But 44.6% is still a ton. And here's a neat stat:

Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs only made the 1st Round: 53.6%
Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs made the 2nd Round: 42.0%
Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs made the Conference Finals: 35.1%

In other words, when his teammates played better (or were better), which shrank his VORP share, his teams went farther. This, again, is a long way of saying that Robinson's teammates were very weak, and he alone could really only take them so far.

And here's the followup data:

1990: (3 games against a 108 OR + 7 games against a 110.5 OR) = 109.8 expected, 106.1 allowed, -3.65 rating
1991: 4 games against a 111.9 OR, 111.6 allowed, -0.30 Rating
1993: (4 games against a 108.3 OR + 6 games against a 113.3 OR) = 111.3 expected, 107 allowed, -4.3 rating
1994: 4 games against a 108.6 OR, 110.3 allowed, +1.7 Rating
1995: (3 games against a 109.1 OR + 6 games against a 109.1 OR + 6 games against a 109.7 OR) = 109.3 expected, 103.1 allowed, -6.24 Rating
1996: (4 games against a 110.3 OR + 6 games against a 113.3 OR) = 112.1 expected, 108.5 allowed, -3.6 rating

I'm not saying it's super-dispositive; I was just looking for evidence that his defense dropped in the playoffs using team measures and I couldn't find it. If I was looking for scaling falloff I'd check this (opponent offensive average vs playoff defensive rating):

1990: Opposition is +0.35, Rating is -3.65
1991: Opposition is +4.00, Rating is -0.30
1993: Opposition is +3.30, Rating is -4.30
1994: Opposition is +2.30, Rating is +1.70
1995: Opposition is +1.04, Rating is -6.24
1996: Opposition is +4.50, Rating is -0.60

Or, sorted by opposing offenses (best on top):

1996: Opposition is +4.50, Rating is -0.60
1991: Opposition is +4.00, Rating is -0.30
1993: Opposition is +3.30, Rating is -4.30
1994: Opposition is +2.30, Rating is +1.70
1995: Opposition is +1.04, Rating is -6.24
1990: Opposition is +0.35, Rating is -3.65

I think there's reason to think that there is *some* scaling at work. The aggregate is even, but it seems like his defense improves in the playoffs against weaker offenses, and gets worse against stronger defenses (and this is adjusted for opposition). The effect isn't huge but it definitely seems to be there.

Of course, I haven't looked at other players/teams in this way, so for all I know some degree of scaling against quality offenses in the playoffs is normal. It does look like there's something there; I'm just not sure what it means.

Thank you for even deeper analysis! Do you know if that's typical for most teams in playoffs? Have you ever compared that to other ATG defensive anchors?

I haven't . . . yet.

Who would you suggest?

[70sFan]

I crunched some of these in the Greatest Player Discussion so I thought I'd repost them here:

Here are Robinson's Playoff Numbers:

Offensive Rating Pre-Duncan (RS / PS): +1.87 / +0.92
Defensive Rating Pre-Duncan (RS / PS): -3.07 / -3.27

So, assuming his teammate performance stayed constant (quite an assumption), his team's offensive performance dropped by almost a point in the playoffs, but his teams' defenses actually got slightly better. So as much of a defensive world-beater as he was in the regular season (and a ton of things point to him being at that level) he (implicitly) was better in the playoffs.

In these years, in the regular season, he averaged 54.4% of his team's combined VORP. This is a really, really, really high number. In the playoffs he averaged only 44.6% of his team's combined VORP. So his numbers fell off (as I figured they would). But 44.6% is still a ton. And here's a neat stat:

Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs only made the 1st Round: 53.6%
Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs made the 2nd Round: 42.0%
Robinson's Playoff VORP Share when the Spurs made the Conference Finals: 35.1%

In other words, when his teammates played better (or were better), which shrank his VORP share, his teams went farther. This, again, is a long way of saying that Robinson's teammates were very weak, and he alone could really only take them so far.

And here's the followup data:

1990: (3 games against a 108 OR + 7 games against a 110.5 OR) = 109.8 expected, 106.1 allowed, -3.65 rating
1991: 4 games against a 111.9 OR, 111.6 allowed, -0.30 Rating
1993: (4 games against a 108.3 OR + 6 games against a 113.3 OR) = 111.3 expected, 107 allowed, -4.3 rating
1994: 4 games against a 108.6 OR, 110.3 allowed, +1.7 Rating
1995: (3 games against a 109.1 OR + 6 games against a 109.1 OR + 6 games against a 109.7 OR) = 109.3 expected, 103.1 allowed, -6.24 Rating
1996: (4 games against a 110.3 OR + 6 games against a 113.3 OR) = 112.1 expected, 108.5 allowed, -3.6 rating

I'm not saying it's super-dispositive; I was just looking for evidence that his defense dropped in the playoffs using team measures and I couldn't find it. If I was looking for scaling falloff I'd check this (opponent offensive average vs playoff defensive rating):

1990: Opposition is +0.35, Rating is -3.65
1991: Opposition is +4.00, Rating is -0.30
1993: Opposition is +3.30, Rating is -4.30
1994: Opposition is +2.30, Rating is +1.70
1995: Opposition is +1.04, Rating is -6.24
1996: Opposition is +4.50, Rating is -0.60

Or, sorted by opposing offenses (best on top):

1996: Opposition is +4.50, Rating is -0.60
1991: Opposition is +4.00, Rating is -0.30
1993: Opposition is +3.30, Rating is -4.30
1994: Opposition is +2.30, Rating is +1.70
1995: Opposition is +1.04, Rating is -6.24
1990: Opposition is +0.35, Rating is -3.65

I think there's reason to think that there is *some* scaling at work. The aggregate is even, but it seems like his defense improves in the playoffs against weaker offenses, and gets worse against stronger defenses (and this is adjusted for opposition). The effect isn't huge but it definitely seems to be there.

Of course, I haven't looked at other players/teams in this way, so for all I know some degree of scaling against quality offenses in the playoffs is normal. It does look like there's something there; I'm just not sure what it means.

Thank you for even deeper analysis! Do you know if that's typical for most teams in playoffs? Have you ever compared that to other ATG defensive anchors?

I haven't . . . yet.

Who would you suggest?

Well, if you have enough time it'd be great to do that for Admiral contemporaries like Hakeem, Mutombo and Ewing. Garnett and Duncan would also be great.

How far could your estimates work? Would they be accurate for Kareem or even Russell/Wilt?

[sansterre]

Thank you for even deeper analysis! Do you know if that's typical for most teams in playoffs? Have you ever compared that to other ATG defensive anchors?

I haven't . . . yet.

Who would you suggest?

Well, if you have enough time it'd be great to do that for Admiral contemporaries like Hakeem, Mutombo and Ewing. Garnett and Duncan would also be great.

How far could your estimates work? Would they be accurate for Kareem or even Russell/Wilt?

For something like this . . .

I'm straight guessing about playoff pace that early on; I just blend the pace of the two teams involved and scale it down a bit. So the pace estimates will almost certainly at least be a little wrong. As long as it's understood that all the data from Wilt / Russell / early Kareem will be muddied I don't mind doing it. But Ewing/Hakeem/Mutombo/Garnett/Duncan are certainly less error-prone so I'll probably look into them first.