The LeBron Thread 2021 Off-Season Edition

[falcolombardi]

With Kyrie and Harden possibly out for the series it's unfortunate to have AD's injury proneness snatch a golden opportunity.

Lakers should probably build around the expectation that AD will miss stretches in the playoffs. Thought that was the idea behind having guys like Harrell, Schroder and Kuzma but they never really made the Lakers more self sufficient.

That's a strange way of looking at it, AD had a reason to be injured with short turnaround times and a condensed season. Kyrie has been on vacation for the best part of a year prior to this season and took plenty of mid season breaks to keep himself fit. Harden had an earlier exit as well and spent most of the offseason in Vegas coming up with ways to make Houston miserable.

If I'm the Nets, I'd think its the other way around and I'm missing a golden opportunity while AD is injured because whoever comes out of the East should comfortably beat whoever comes out of the West.

only if the fully healthy nets make the finals, otherwise i am not confident in budenholzer bucks or sixers to beat suns or jazz or clippers

i think east vs west is a toss up this year unless nets get to the finals fully healthy

[Slava]

With Kyrie and Harden possibly out for the series it's unfortunate to have AD's injury proneness snatch a golden opportunity.

Lakers should probably build around the expectation that AD will miss stretches in the playoffs. Thought that was the idea behind having guys like Harrell, Schroder and Kuzma but they never really made the Lakers more self sufficient.

That's a strange way of looking at it, AD had a reason to be injured with short turnaround times and a condensed season. Kyrie has been on vacation for the best part of a year prior to this season and took plenty of mid season breaks to keep himself fit. Harden had an earlier exit as well and spent most of the offseason in Vegas coming up with ways to make Houston miserable.

If I'm the Nets, I'd think its the other way around and I'm missing a golden opportunity while AD is injured because whoever comes out of the East should comfortably beat whoever comes out of the West.

only if the fully healthy nets make the finals, otherwise i am not confident in budenholzer bucks or sixers to beat suns or jazz or clippers

i think east vs west is a toss up this year unless nets get to the finals fully healthy

I think Philly can easily handle anyone in the West. Embiid would do quite well in any center match up against the likes of Gobert, Ayton or Zubac. They have enough long defenders like Simmons, Danny Green and Thybulle to throw against any kind of perimeter talent. They're the favorites if Brooklyn is not healthy.

[falcolombardi]

sixers have a non shooter as a starter and no all star level guard who can break defenses off the dribble

two wraknesses that i suspect will show against better defenses than hawks/wizards

nothingh to say about embiid or their defense too, those are great

i actually think sixers are the closest thingh to 2020 lakers, better in some thinghs (Harris is better than kcp as third best player, they have more shooting outside of the simmons issue) but with simmons in lebron place which will be a huge downgrade against stronger defenses like suns, jazz or bucks

[trickshot]

That's a strange way of looking at it, AD had a reason to be injured with short turnaround times and a condensed season. Kyrie has been on vacation for the best part of a year prior to this season and took plenty of mid season breaks to keep himself fit. Harden had an earlier exit as well and spent most of the offseason in Vegas coming up with ways to make Houston miserable.

If I'm the Nets, I'd think its the other way around and I'm missing a golden opportunity while AD is injured because whoever comes out of the East should comfortably beat whoever comes out of the West.

only if the fully healthy nets make the finals, otherwise i am not confident in budenholzer bucks or sixers to beat suns or jazz or clippers

i think east vs west is a toss up this year unless nets get to the finals fully healthy

I think Philly can easily handle anyone in the West. Embiid would do quite well in any center match up against the likes of Gobert, Ayton or Zubac. They have enough long defenders like Simmons, Danny Green and Thybulle to throw against any kind of perimeter talent. They're the favorites if Brooklyn is not healthy.

i think clippers can beat anyone matchup wise and the Suns can beat the Sixers (but not the bucks). There's a whole web of matchups but I don't think the eastern teams are far ahead of their western counterparts. Giannis will continue to alternate between dominant and okay depending on the matchup. He isn't bodying anyone on the Nets like I thought, not even KD when they're switched.

Not even worth going deep into, at this point I'm certain another star is getting injured and changing the field making all our predictions moot. At some point we have to ask if the shortened break had a higher effect on the higher usage players. The star injuries are ridiculous.

[homecourtloss]

Kawhi on another All-NBA defensive team Of course

[trickshot]

Kawhi on another All-NBA defensive team Of course

You've got to be kidding me. Coasts even harder than Lebron these days

[falcolombardi]

]

Kawhi on another All-NBA defensive team Of course

daily reminder that media votes dont analysis nor watch games

they literslly go with whatever the narrative says or pick whatever player they know about, is barely better than the Oscar judges...amd these are the guys that admit voting for movies they didnt watch

edit: i just realizedhow mediocre (in the season) to bad (in playoffs) clippers defense is lmao, kawhi defensive reputation still freeloading from 2019 raptors

[trickshot]

]

Kawhi on another All-NBA defensive team Of course

daily reminder that media votes dont analysis nor watch games

they literslly go with whatever the narrative says or pick whatever player they know about, is barely better than the Oscar judges...amd these are the guys that admit voting for movies they didnt watch

edit: i just realizedhow mediocre (in the season) to bad (in playoffs) clippers defense is lmao, kawhi defensive reputation still freeloading from 2019 raptors

At least do the bare minimum before deciding where to cast your vote. Look up a stat or ask around. The most basic research would have told anyone Kawhi hasn't been all nba defense for a while. I get that basketball has the hardest defense to read in sports but it also seems to have the least enlightened media talking about it. There's barely anyone at espn that can break down a play.

[homecourtloss]

LeBron vs. Kawhi defense, 2019–2021

2018-2019

LeBron Overall: opponents shot 3.1% BELOW average, 10.1 shots defended per game, Lakers 1.6 points per 100 possessions BETTER on defense with him ON court (3.4 worse BETTER his injury), +.45 DRPM

Kawhi Overall: opponents shot .1% BELOW average, 9.9 shots defended per game, Raptors 3.7 points per 100 possessions WORSE on defense with him ON court, +.13 DRPM

ISO: LeBron, 79th percentile; Kawhi, 96th percentile
Screen-roll ball handler: LeBron 96th percentile(best in the NBA for those defending 2+ possessions per game); Kawhi, 63rd
Post up: LeBron, 72nd percentile; Kawhi, 36th percentile
Spot up: LeBron, 58th percentile; Kawhi, 77th percentile
Off screens: LeBron, 89th percentile; Kawhi, 32nd percentile
Handoffs: LeBron, 94th percentile; Kawhi, 94th percentile

2019-2020

LeBron Overall: opponents shot 1.4% BELOW average, 7.8 shots defended per game, Lakers 3.5 points per 100 possessions BETTER on defense with him ON court, +3.81 DRPM

Kawhi Overall: opponents shot 4.6% BELOW average, 10.5 shots defended per game, Clippers 2.7 points per 100 possessions BETTER on defense with him ON court, +1.73 DRPM

ISO: LeBron, 82nd percentile; Kawhi, 87th percentile
Screen-roll ball handler: LeBron 76th percentile; Kawhi, 67th percentile
Post up: LeBron, 95th percentile; Kawhi, 16th percentile
Spot up: LeBron, 87th percentile; Kawhi, 96th percentile
Off screens: LeBron, 64th percentile; Kawhi, 67th percentile
Handoffs: LeBron, 67th percentile; Kawhi, 70th percentile

2020-2021

LeBron Overall: opponents shot 5.5% BELOW average (7th best in the NBA [30+ GP, 8+ DFA per/g], https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-overall/?CF=GP*GE*30:D_FGA*GE*8&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=PCT_PLUSMINUS&dir=-1 ), 9.3 shots defended per game, Lakers (the best defense in the NBA) 4.4 points per 100 possessions BETTER on defense with him ON court, +2.10 DRPM, led league in three point defense (https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-3pt/?CF=GP*GE*30:FG3A*GE*3.9&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=FG3_PCT&dir=-1)

Kawhi Overall: opponents shot 2.5% ABOVE average, 9.9 shots defended per game, Clippers points 1.0 per 100 possessions BETTER on defense with him ON court, +1.73 DRPM

ISO: LeBron, 82nd percentile; Kawhi, 10th percentile
Screen-roll ball handler: LeBron 83rd percentile; Kawhi, 57th percentile
Post up: LeBron, 76th percentile; Kawhi, 56th percentile
Spot up: LeBron, 90th percentile; Kawhi, 50th percentile
Off screens: LeBron, 53rd percentile; Kawhi, 53rd percentile
Handoffs: LeBron, 50th percentile; Kawhi, 29th percentile

Other than 2018 when he didn’t play defense at all, James has been in the 50th percentile or above in every play type from 2016 to 2021 other than on handoffs in 2017. Not even defensive specialists can say that.

2016

James should have made 1st or second team all defense. He was their defensive anchor on a team that didn’t have many plus defenders. In the playoffs, he had one of the greatest defensive runs by a non-big ever, especially when considering he’s the primary offense initiators.

LeBron, 2016

Top 3% in defending hand offs
Top 7% in defending in ISO
Top 12% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 13% in spot up defense
Top 15% in defending off of screens
Top 16% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 27% in post up defense

I’ve gone through quite a bit of tracking data and still haven’t found a player top 30% in every category let alone a teams primary offense initiator who’s 31 years old. In fact, very, very few have been 50th percentile or above in every category. James has done it 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021

For 2016 comparisons:

Kawhi, 2016

Top 2% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 10% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 17% in defending in ISO
Top 22% in defending hand offs
Top 25% in spot up defense 
Top 29% in post up defense
Bottom 31% in defending off of screens

Draymond, 2016

Top 2% in defending off of screens
Top 11% in post up defense
Top 28% in defending in ISO
Top 25% in defending the roll man in pick and roll
Top 29% in defending the pick and roll ball handler
Top 34% in spot up defense 
Bottom 43% in defending hand offs

Kawhi and Draymond were more impactful defenders, but neither had the offensive burden James did. The fact that LeBron can even be in same breath as these two defensively at that age and being the primary offense initiator is remarkable. 


ISO: LeBron, 82nd percentile; Kawhi, 10th percentile; Simmons, 78th; Thybulle, 70th
Screen-roll ball handler: LeBron 83rd percentile; Kawhi, 57th percentile; Simmons, 57th; Thybulle, 56th
Post up: LeBron, 76th percentile; Kawhi, 56th percentile; Simmons, 84th; Thybulle, 93rd
Spot up: LeBron, 90th percentile; Kawhi, 50th percentile; Simmons, 73rd; Thybulle, 72
Off screens: LeBron, 53rd percentile; Kawhi, 53rd percentile; Simmons, 87th; Thybulle, 63rd
Handoffs: LeBron, 50th percentile; Kawhi, 29th percentile; Simmons, 70th; Thybulle, 64th.

DRAPM, DRAPTOR also look good for Lebron.

[letskissbro]

Kawhi on another All-NBA defensive team Of course

Kawhi - 52 games

Lebron - 45 games

Kawhi - 43 all-defense votes

LeBron - 0 all-defense votes

Straight up joke of a league

[falcolombardi]

someone explain why awards are decided by media?

coaches picks at least would ensure they watched the players they voted play lol

[Slava]

Its hard to pin the Lakers defence on any one player as it stayed consistent through all kinds of line up shuffles, except for the stretch when Drummond arrived. The one stand out is likely Caruso and they should have rewarded him for the #1 defensive team.

[nzahir]

Who are the main realistic free agent wings you guys see us going for?

Feels like Rudy Gay and Batum are the best options

OPJ is an option, but a gamble from a health perspective

Feel like we need to make an upgrade at the guard spot.

2 most realistic guys seem like Buddy Hield or Rozier

Rozier: Send out Kuzma, Alfonzo, and our 1st to Indi. Hornets send us Rozier and a 1st for Turner.

Hield: Kuzma, Trez (if opts in) and 1st for Hield and a good 2nd back

Hopefully do sign and trade with Dennis to NY for a trade exception. Send NY a 2nd to help us out

[falcolombardi]

every time i see people put love+kyrie or 2013/2014 wade + bosh as superstar teammates somethingh dies inside me lol

[Fadeaway_J]

someone explain why awards are decided by media?

coaches picks at least would ensure they watched the players they voted play lol

The coaches used to vote until 2013-14 and it wasn't really any better.

[VanWest82]

Lebron 20/21

Spoiler:

Kawhi 20/21

Spoiler:

You can't spend the majority of your time as weak side, back line help and make all defense. Even the media understands this. I said this before he got hurt and I still believe that Lebron had a better shot at winning MVP than making all D.

[falcolombardi]

Lebron 20/21

Spoiler:

Kawhi 20/21

Spoiler:

You can't spend the majority of your time as weak side, back line help and make all defense. Even the media understands this. I said this before he got hurt and I still believe that Lebron had a better shot at winning MVP than making all D.

giannis? he rarely guards opposite stars cause screens and is instead a help defender that is put on a weak offensive player so he can play help. and i feel like the consensus is that he is clearly a more impactful defender than kawhi right now

at least from watching, maybe the stats say somethingh else

[VanWest82]

Lebron 20/21

Spoiler:

Kawhi 20/21

Spoiler:

You can't spend the majority of your time as weak side, back line help and make all defense. Even the media understands this. I said this before he got hurt and I still believe that Lebron had a better shot at winning MVP than making all D.

giannis? he rarely guards opposite stars cause screens and is instead a help defender that is put on a weak offensive player so he can play help. and i feel like the consensus is that he is clearly a more impactful defender than kawhi right now

at least from watching, maybe the stats say somethingh else

Giannis spends more time on top offensive options: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203507/head-to-head/

He also defends more shots per game in less mins. I do think Giannis's defensive impact is a bit overstated. AD should've won DPOY last year. He just did more.

[homecourtloss]

Lebron 20/21

Spoiler:

Kawhi 20/21

Spoiler:

You can't spend the majority of your time as weak side, back line help and make all defense. Even the media understands this. I said this before he got hurt and I still believe that Lebron had a better shot at winning MVP than making all D.

giannis? he rarely guards opposite stars cause screens and is instead a help defender that is put on a weak offensive player so he can play help. and i feel like the consensus is that he is clearly a more impactful defender than kawhi right now

at least from watching, maybe the stats say somethingh else

Giannis spends more time on top offensive options: https://www.nba.com/stats/player/203507/head-to-head/

He also defends more shots per game in less mins. I do think Giannis's defensive impact is a bit overstated. AD should've won DPOY last year. He just did more.

AD doesn’t have any case for DPOY last year and really one for all nba defense

DRtg with AD: 106.4
DRtg with AD off: 104.0

Which defensive anchor’s team is significantly worse with him on court than off?

AD ON, LeBron off, 572 minutes: 111.9 ORtg, 114.4 DRtg, -2.5 [DRtg equivalent to 28th in the NBA]

DRPM: +.50, 150th in the NBA
DRAPM: +.67, 79th in the NBA
DRAPTOR: +4.3, 4th in the NBA
DLEBRON: +2.21, 19th in the NBA

[LA Bird]

LeBron makes All NBA 2nd team. Now at 17 total All NBA selections in his career.