When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time?

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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#281 » by migya » Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:32 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
migya wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Nah idk why ur telling me I didn’t help brons case when I wasn’t trying to

I think the bubble chip helps in the sense that his level of play was certainly higher than post retirement jordan playoff runs were


I can see why you say that and it was a good run but the setting was different and I think the competition was stronger against Jordan.


Don't say "I think". That's meaningless. Prove it, mathematically.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2185164&p=98293842#p98293842

Playoffs Quality Of Opponents Faced, Career:

Lower -2.0 Net Rating: Bad Team
From -2.0 to +1.9 Net Rating: Average Team
From +2.0 to +3.9 Net Rating: Good Team
From +4.0 to +6.0 Net Rating: Elite Team
Above +7.0 Net Rating: All-Time Great Team

Michael Jordan:

Regular Season: 38.3 MPG, 30.1 PPG, 6.2 RBS, 5.3 AST, .497 FG% (+3.7 rTS%)

Against Bad Teams: (3.9% of playoff games): 43.1 MPG, 31.3 PPG, 5.7 RBS, 4.3 AST, (-0.6 tTS%)
Against Average Teams: (20.1% of playoff games): 40.1 MPG, 35.0 PPG, 7 RBS, 7.5 AST, (+6.6 rTS%)
Against Good Teams: (15% of playoff games): 41.9 MPG, 32.7 PPG, 5.5 RBS, 3.9 AST, (+1.4 tTS%)
Against Elite Teams: (40.2% of playoff games): 41.0 MPG, 32.4 PPG, 6.3 RBS, 5 AST, (+2.6 rTS%)
Against All Time Great Teams: (20.7% of playoff games): 42.8 MPG, 35.8 PPG, 6.8 RBS, 6.6 AST, (+4.5 rTS%)

LeBron James:

Regular Season: 38.2 MPG, 27.1 PPG, 7.4 RBS, 7.4 AST, .505 FG%, (+4.4 rTS%)

Against Bad Teams: (0% of playoff games): ---
Against Average Teams: (33.4% of playoff games): 42.3 MPG, 27.8 PPG, 8.7 RBS, 6.4 AST, (+5.4 rTS%)
Against Good Teams: (23.7% of playoff games): 39.4 MPG, 30.7 PPG, 9.4 RBS, 8.6 AST, (+8.1 rTS%)
Against Elite Teams: (22.6% of playoff games): 40.1 MPG, 28.0 PPG, 9.3 RBS, 7.1 AST, (+3.8 rTS%)
Against All Time Great Teams: (21% of playoff games): 43.5 MPG, 28.5 PPG, 8.4 RBS, 7.2 AST, (+1.4 tTS%)

Performance Against The Very Best: Versus Elite + All Time Great Teams

Jordan: (60.9% of total games): 41.9 MPG, 34.1 PPG, 6.6 RBS, 5.8 AST, (+3.6% rTS%)

LeBron: (43.6% of total games): 41.8 MPG, 28.3 PPG, 8.9 RBS, 7.2 AST, (+2.6 tTS%)

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1836300

Playoff Defensive Strength of Opposition:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

LeBron James (2008-18):

RS: 37.8 mpg, 7.6 rpg, 7.5 apg, 3.5 tov, 27.3 ppg on 52.1% FG, 35.0% 3FG, 74.2% FT and 60.4% TS (+6.30% rTS)

Against Bad Defenses (2.91% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 9.5 rpg, 7.7 apg, 2.8 tov, 29.8 ppg on 48.3% FG, 29.0% 3FG, 70.1% FT and 58.2% TS (+4.16% rTS)

Against Average Defenses (34.95% of playoffs games): 40.8 mpg, 9.1 rpg, 7.0 apg, 3.5 tov, 29.8 ppg on 52.5% FG, 31.0% 3FG, 75.6% FT, 60.8% TS (+6.55% rTS)

Against Good Defenses (24.76% of playoffs games): 41.2 mpg, 8.9 rpg, 7.7 apg, 3.4 tov, 27.3 ppg on 49.1% FG, 33.0% 3FG 74.8% FT and 58.2% TS (+4.16% rTS)

Against Elite Defenses (26.21% of playoffs games): 42.6 mpg, 9.8 rpg, 6.9 apg, 3.8 tov, 31.5 ppg on 49.6% FG, 37.5% 3FG, 71.1% FT and 57.9% TS (+3.90% rTS)

Against All-Time Great Defenses (11.17% of playoffs games): 42.0 mpg, 7.1 rpg, 6.0 apg, 4.0 tov, 25.8 ppg on 44.4% FG, 32.7% 3FG, 77.0% FT and 54.7% TS (+0.64% rTS)

Michael Jordan (1985-98):

RS: 38.6 mpg, 6.3 rpg, 5.4 apg, 2.8 tov, 31.5 ppg on 50.6% FG, 33.2% 3FG, 83.8% FT and 58.0% TS (+4.27% rTS)

Against Bad Defenses (3.35% of playoffs games): 37.7 mpg, 8.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 2.5 tov, 39.7 ppg on 57.0% FG, 46.2% 3FG, 89.8% FT and 63.8% TS (+10.44% rTS)

Against Average Defenses (36.31% of playoffs games): 41.7 mpg, 6.7 rpg, 5.7 apg, 2.9 tov, 34.6 ppg on 49.5% FG, 33.6% 3FG, 81.8% FT, 56.9% TS (+3.51% rTS)

Against Good Defenses (27.37% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 6.1 rpg, 5.9 apg, 3.1 tov, 32.1 ppg on 49.9% FG, 37.1% 3FG 81.3% FT and 57.9% TS (+4.40% rTS)

Against Elite Defenses (29.61% of playoffs games): 42.5 mpg, 6.4 rpg, 5.5 apg, 3.3 tov, 32.7 ppg on 46.4% FG, 27.7% 3FG, 84.3% FT and 55.2% TS (+1.54% rTS)

Against All-Time Great Defenses (3.35% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 6.2 rpg, 7.0 apg, 2.3 tov, 32.2 ppg on 40.0% FG, 40.0% 3FG, 86.8% FT and 52.2% TS (-1.42% rTS)

Full Careers:
Lebron vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
22.1% of total playoff games played
42.3 MPG
26.3 PGG
7.8 RBG
6.5 AST/G
rTS%: -1.3%

Jordan vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses
33.0% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
32.7 PPG
6.3 RBG
6.3 AST/G
rTS%: 0.15%



Looks like substantial proof. :wink:
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#282 » by ty 4191 » Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:55 pm

migya wrote:Looks like substantial proof. :wink:


It is. Jordan faced better teams and better defenses in the playoffs. 8-)

(And, if you had any idea how much time it took 70s'Fan and I, you'd laugh out loud!) :lol:
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#283 » by Jaivl » Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:06 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
migya wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Nah idk why ur telling me I didn’t help brons case when I wasn’t trying to

I think the bubble chip helps in the sense that his level of play was certainly higher than post retirement jordan playoff runs were


I can see why you say that and it was a good run but the setting was different and I think the competition was stronger against Jordan.


Don't say "I think". That's meaningless. Prove it, mathematically.

Jordan playing better opposition (as in: relative to the league) is certainly true.

But I'm pretty sure the claim is that Jordan played tougher opposition in an absolute sense, which is a claim not as easily quantifiable, and one I would heavily disagree with.
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#284 » by ty 4191 » Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:19 pm

Jaivl wrote:But I'm pretty sure the claim is that Jordan played tougher opposition in an absolute sense, which is a claim not as easily quantifiable, and one I would heavily disagree with.


I would agree with you. Globalization and internationalization have clearly increased the quality and depth of the league 2003-2022 vs. 1985-2003.

Can you please explain your position in detail? Thanks, man. Much appreciated. 8-)
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#285 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:20 pm

Jaivl wrote:
ty 4191 wrote:
migya wrote:
I can see why you say that and it was a good run but the setting was different and I think the competition was stronger against Jordan.


Don't say "I think". That's meaningless. Prove it, mathematically.

Jordan playing better opposition (as in: relative to the league) is certainly true.

But I'm pretty sure the claim is that Jordan played tougher opposition in an absolute sense, which is a claim not as easily quantifiable, and one I would heavily disagree with.


Even more importantly the level of competition has nothing to do with how good you are. Does Michael Jordan become a worse player if a worse team had upset the Utah Jazz twice? Of course not, that would be silly. Players do not get to control who they play. So any argument relying heavily on a perceived strength of opponent(while also ignoring matchups which we know IRL matter--see the 8th seeded We Believe Warriors who went 8-2 against the 67 win Mavs. The Mavs lost 19 games in the RS and playoffs combined. 8 of them were to the Warriors. Just posting the SRS of the Warriors misses a bunch of the story(also ignores the major in-season trade they made and how much better they were after it).

So, that's not "proof" of anything. Nor even if it were does it tell us anything remotely conclusively about who the better player was Jordan or James.
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#286 » by ty 4191 » Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:48 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:Even more importantly the level of competition has nothing to do with how good you are. Does Michael Jordan become a worse player if a worse team had upset the Utah Jazz twice? Of course not, that would be silly. Players do not get to control who they play. So any argument relying heavily on a perceived strength of opponent(while also ignoring matchups which we know IRL matter--see the 8th seeded We Believe Warriors who went 8-2 against the 67 win Mavs. The Mavs lost 19 games in the RS and playoffs combined. 8 of them were to the Warriors. Just posting the SRS of the Warriors misses a bunch of the story(also ignores the major in-season trade they made and how much better they were after it).


There are flukes and outliers, sure. But, 70sFan and I went through 37 playoff series for Jordan and 50 for LeBron. What you're referring to- outliers- (I would think) that they would even out over 179 games and 266 games, respectively.

I realize the research is just numerical and (ergo) ostensibly reductive especially in a narrative sense...however... I was seeking to cut through all the microscopic minutiae and personal biases and anecdotal palavers (and rampant bombast) on here (as a person without a horse in the race in this particular debate).

Texas Chuck wrote:So, that's not "proof" of anything. Nor even if it were does it tell us anything remotely conclusively about who the better player was Jordan or James.


It's only proof that MJ faced better defenses and teams, relative to his own era, than LeBron did, overall.

And no. It doesn't prove who was better; that is logically impossible to prove numerically.

Who was better is likely an irreconcilable debate, since they didn't play against each other. Very dissimilar and distinct rules, opponents, etc. etc.

It's irreconcilable, but the debate will rage on, ad perpetuum and ad nauseum...forever.
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#287 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Dec 27, 2022 5:05 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
There are flukes and outliers, sure. But, 70sFan and I went through 37 playoff series for Jordan and 50 for LeBron. What you're referring to- outliers- (I would think) that they would even out over 179 games and 266 games, respectively.
.


I'm not trying to knock the work. If you guys really went through and checked out mid-season transactions, injuries, regular season match-ups for all those series, hey kudos to you guys for going that in-depth. I remember you guys working on this though and it wasn't detailed in the thread. And I think these are larger factors that don't necessarily just wash out--though maybe they do. Lebron in particular has the biggest playoff sample size we've ever seen so if it is going to normalize for anyone....

But much more importantly to me I think its a real dangerous path to go down to say this player is better than this other player because their team beat a team perceived as being "better". And I know you aren't making that argument so I'm not directing that concern to you. But we see it on this board a lot.
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#288 » by ty 4191 » Tue Dec 27, 2022 5:16 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
ty 4191 wrote:
There are flukes and outliers, sure. But, 70sFan and I went through 37 playoff series for Jordan and 50 for LeBron. What you're referring to- outliers- (I would think) that they would even out over 179 games and 266 games, respectively.
.


I'm not trying to knock the work. If you guys really went through and checked out mid-season transactions, injuries, regular season match-ups for all those series, hey kudos to you guys for going that in-depth. I remember you guys working on this though and it wasn't detailed in the thread. And I think these are larger factors that don't necessarily just wash out--though maybe they do. Lebron in particular has the biggest playoff sample size we've ever seen so if it is going to normalize for anyone....

But much more importantly to me I think its a real dangerous path to go down to say this player is better than this other player because their team beat a team perceived as being "better". And I know you aren't making that argument so I'm not directing that concern to you. But we see it on this board a lot.


Thanks for the thoughtful, measured response. As per your usual. :)

Re: Player comparisons writ large; don't you think- in your heart of hearts- (philosophically and practically) that it's silly/juvenile/impossible to directly compare players whose careers didn't overlap significantly?
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#289 » by Texas Chuck » Tue Dec 27, 2022 5:40 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
Re: Player comparisons writ large; don't you think- in your heart of hearts- (philosophically and practically) that it's silly/juvenile/impossible to directly compare players whose careers didn't overlap significantly?


I would go more impossible than silly/juvenile. Though if by that you mean, we place way too much importance on it, then yes I absolutely agree.

I try and keep in mind none of this is zero sum. That Lebron's greatness has done absolutely nothing to take away from the greats who came before(Mike, Russsll, Kareem, etc). I try really hard not to ever knock another player in an effort to make a player I think highly of seem better because its irrelevant.

And I think this gets lost a lot. Some see it as a personal affront that another player could been see as great or possibly even "greater" than their guy. But it isn't. Jordan's career was complete before Lebron's ever begun. His greatness is secure. It hasn't changed one iota. And if Lebron somehow surpassed Jordan, so what? You don't have to love him more. Love whomever you want. I know Dirk isn't the GOAT, but he's always going to be my favorite. I hated what Kobe and Timmy did to the little Mavs over and over and over again, particularly Timmy. But I can give them their respect as all-time greats. And I realize that pointing out that Kobe and KG and Nash and Wade and Manu were all great contemporaries of Dirk doesn't take away one sliver of a sliver away from his career. Just means there were other great players. Nothing more nothing less.

But I will admit to enjoying trying to figure out how I slot these players in an absolute sense. While recognizing the folly of the task and my utter lack of qualifications for the job. :D
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#290 » by ty 4191 » Tue Dec 27, 2022 5:49 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
ty 4191 wrote:
Re: Player comparisons writ large; don't you think- in your heart of hearts- (philosophically and practically) that it's silly/juvenile/impossible to directly compare players whose careers didn't overlap significantly?


I would go more impossible than silly/juvenile. Though if by that you mean, we place way too much importance on it, then yes I absolutely agree.

I try and keep in mind none of this is zero sum. That Lebron's greatness has done absolutely nothing to take away from the greats who came before(Mike, Russsll, Kareem, etc). I try really hard not to ever knock another player in an effort to make a player I think highly of seem better because its irrelevant.

And I think this gets lost a lot. Some see it as a personal affront that another player could been see as great or possibly even "greater" than their guy. But it isn't. Jordan's career was complete before Lebron's ever begun. His greatness is secure. It hasn't changed one iota. And if Lebron somehow surpassed Jordan, so what? You don't have to love him more. Love whomever you want. I know Dirk isn't the GOAT, but he's always going to be my favorite. I hated what Kobe and Timmy did to the little Mavs over and over and over again, particularly Timmy. But I can give them their respect as all-time greats. And I realize that pointing out that Kobe and KG and Nash and Wade and Manu were all great contemporaries of Dirk doesn't take away one sliver of a sliver away from his career. Just means there were other great players. Nothing more nothing less.

But I will admit to enjoying trying to figure out how I slot these players in an absolute sense. While recognizing the folly of the task and my utter lack of qualifications for the job. :D


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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#291 » by falcolombardi » Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:41 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
migya wrote:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Nah idk why ur telling me I didn’t help brons case when I wasn’t trying to

I think the bubble chip helps in the sense that his level of play was certainly higher than post retirement jordan playoff runs were


I can see why you say that and it was a good run but the setting was different and I think the competition was stronger against Jordan.


Don't say "I think". That's meaningless. Prove it, mathematically.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2185164&p=98293842#p98293842

Playoffs Quality Of Opponents Faced, Career:

Lower -2.0 Net Rating: Bad Team
From -2.0 to +1.9 Net Rating: Average Team
From +2.0 to +3.9 Net Rating: Good Team
From +4.0 to +6.0 Net Rating: Elite Team
Above +7.0 Net Rating: All-Time Great Team

Michael Jordan:

Regular Season: 38.3 MPG, 30.1 PPG, 6.2 RBS, 5.3 AST, .497 FG% (+3.7 rTS%)

Against Bad Teams: (3.9% of playoff games): 43.1 MPG, 31.3 PPG, 5.7 RBS, 4.3 AST, (-0.6 tTS%)
Against Average Teams: (20.1% of playoff games): 40.1 MPG, 35.0 PPG, 7 RBS, 7.5 AST, (+6.6 rTS%)
Against Good Teams: (15% of playoff games): 41.9 MPG, 32.7 PPG, 5.5 RBS, 3.9 AST, (+1.4 tTS%)
Against Elite Teams: (40.2% of playoff games): 41.0 MPG, 32.4 PPG, 6.3 RBS, 5 AST, (+2.6 rTS%)
Against All Time Great Teams: (20.7% of playoff games): 42.8 MPG, 35.8 PPG, 6.8 RBS, 6.6 AST, (+4.5 rTS%)

LeBron James:

Regular Season: 38.2 MPG, 27.1 PPG, 7.4 RBS, 7.4 AST, .505 FG%, (+4.4 rTS%)

Against Bad Teams: (0% of playoff games): ---
Against Average Teams: (33.4% of playoff games): 42.3 MPG, 27.8 PPG, 8.7 RBS, 6.4 AST, (+5.4 rTS%)
Against Good Teams: (23.7% of playoff games): 39.4 MPG, 30.7 PPG, 9.4 RBS, 8.6 AST, (+8.1 rTS%)
Against Elite Teams: (22.6% of playoff games): 40.1 MPG, 28.0 PPG, 9.3 RBS, 7.1 AST, (+3.8 rTS%)
Against All Time Great Teams: (21% of playoff games): 43.5 MPG, 28.5 PPG, 8.4 RBS, 7.2 AST, (+1.4 tTS%)

Performance Against The Very Best: Versus Elite + All Time Great Teams

Jordan: (60.9% of total games): 41.9 MPG, 34.1 PPG, 6.6 RBS, 5.8 AST, (+3.6% rTS%)

LeBron: (43.6% of total games): 41.8 MPG, 28.3 PPG, 8.9 RBS, 7.2 AST, (+2.6 tTS%)

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1836300

Playoff Defensive Strength of Opposition:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

LeBron James (2008-18):

RS: 37.8 mpg, 7.6 rpg, 7.5 apg, 3.5 tov, 27.3 ppg on 52.1% FG, 35.0% 3FG, 74.2% FT and 60.4% TS (+6.30% rTS)

Against Bad Defenses (2.91% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 9.5 rpg, 7.7 apg, 2.8 tov, 29.8 ppg on 48.3% FG, 29.0% 3FG, 70.1% FT and 58.2% TS (+4.16% rTS)

Against Average Defenses (34.95% of playoffs games): 40.8 mpg, 9.1 rpg, 7.0 apg, 3.5 tov, 29.8 ppg on 52.5% FG, 31.0% 3FG, 75.6% FT, 60.8% TS (+6.55% rTS)

Against Good Defenses (24.76% of playoffs games): 41.2 mpg, 8.9 rpg, 7.7 apg, 3.4 tov, 27.3 ppg on 49.1% FG, 33.0% 3FG 74.8% FT and 58.2% TS (+4.16% rTS)

Against Elite Defenses (26.21% of playoffs games): 42.6 mpg, 9.8 rpg, 6.9 apg, 3.8 tov, 31.5 ppg on 49.6% FG, 37.5% 3FG, 71.1% FT and 57.9% TS (+3.90% rTS)

Against All-Time Great Defenses (11.17% of playoffs games): 42.0 mpg, 7.1 rpg, 6.0 apg, 4.0 tov, 25.8 ppg on 44.4% FG, 32.7% 3FG, 77.0% FT and 54.7% TS (+0.64% rTS)

Michael Jordan (1985-98):

RS: 38.6 mpg, 6.3 rpg, 5.4 apg, 2.8 tov, 31.5 ppg on 50.6% FG, 33.2% 3FG, 83.8% FT and 58.0% TS (+4.27% rTS)

Against Bad Defenses (3.35% of playoffs games): 37.7 mpg, 8.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 2.5 tov, 39.7 ppg on 57.0% FG, 46.2% 3FG, 89.8% FT and 63.8% TS (+10.44% rTS)

Against Average Defenses (36.31% of playoffs games): 41.7 mpg, 6.7 rpg, 5.7 apg, 2.9 tov, 34.6 ppg on 49.5% FG, 33.6% 3FG, 81.8% FT, 56.9% TS (+3.51% rTS)

Against Good Defenses (27.37% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 6.1 rpg, 5.9 apg, 3.1 tov, 32.1 ppg on 49.9% FG, 37.1% 3FG 81.3% FT and 57.9% TS (+4.40% rTS)

Against Elite Defenses (29.61% of playoffs games): 42.5 mpg, 6.4 rpg, 5.5 apg, 3.3 tov, 32.7 ppg on 46.4% FG, 27.7% 3FG, 84.3% FT and 55.2% TS (+1.54% rTS)

Against All-Time Great Defenses (3.35% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 6.2 rpg, 7.0 apg, 2.3 tov, 32.2 ppg on 40.0% FG, 40.0% 3FG, 86.8% FT and 52.2% TS (-1.42% rTS)

Full Careers:
Lebron vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
22.1% of total playoff games played
42.3 MPG
26.3 PGG
7.8 RBG
6.5 AST/G
rTS%: -1.3%

Jordan vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses
33.0% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
32.7 PPG
6.3 RBG
6.3 AST/G
rTS%: 0.15%


Hi ty!, interesting post, although some of the numbers jumped at me cause they seemed fsirly different at a glance from what i remembered from other posters work (no need to read the whole thingh, bolded the relevant parts

homecourtloss wrote:Posted this in the Taylor Greatest Peaks thread

LeBron faced more elite defenses in the East and then in the Finals than did Jordan and fared better scoring efficiency wise agaisnt those defenses than did Jordan, and even more so if you look at free throw rates and relative effective FG %s. Of course, Jordan had higher volume.

Through 2018, 47% of LeBron’s playoff series were played against top 5-top 6 basically tied for top 5 defenses; LeBron played against 6 of the top 30 [4-2] and 7 of the top 35 defenses [4-3] in NBA history (rDRtg) which is ludicrous considering the events that have to happen for that to happen.

Top defenses faced

-8 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-7 rDRtg: Jordan 0, LeBron 3
-6 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 4
-5 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-4 rDRtg: Jordan 7, LeBron 5

-3 rDRtg: Jordan 4, LeBron 3

-3 DRtg or better: Jordan 14, LeBron 17
-4 DRtg or better: Jordan 10, LeBron 14
-5 DRtg or better: Jordan 3, LeBron 9
-6 DRtg or better: Jordan 2, LeBron 8
-7 DRtg or better: Jordan 1, LeBron 4

LeBron

2008 Celtics, -8.6 rDRtg: -6.0 rTS%, -7.3% reFG% to what Celtics allowed
2014 Pacers, -7.4 rDRtg: +9.6 rTS%, +13.1 reFG%
2011 Celtics, -7.0 rDRtg: +1.2 rTS%, +5.0 reFG%
2011 Bulls, -7.0 rDRtg: +4.6% rTS%, +.7 reFG%
2007 Spurs, -6.6 rDRtg: -11.3% rTS%, -9.3 reFG%
2012 Celtics, -6.4 rDRtg: +6.0 rTS%, +10.3 reFG%
2009 Magic, -6.4 rDRtg: +4.7% rTS%, +5.8 reFG%
2013 Pacers,-6.1 rDRtg: +7.4 rTS%, +11.0 reFG%
2016 Hawks, -5.0 rDRtg: +3.2 rTS%, +8.0 reFG%
2017 Warriors, -4.8 rDRtg: +7.8 rTS%, +12.9 reFG%
2018 Celtics, -4.7 rDRtg: +5.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2013 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: -.6 rTS%, + .7 reFG%
2015 Warriors, -4.2 rDRtg: -5.7 rTS%, -3.9 reFG%
2010 Celtics, -3.8 rDRtg: +1.3 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2012 Knicks, -3.6 rDRtg: +7.0 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
2006 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg: -2.0 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2014 Bobcats, -2.9 rDRtg: +13.0 rTS%, +11.6 reFG%
2018 Raptors, -2.7 rDRtg: +2.7 rTS%, +6.7 reFG%
2013 Bulls, -2.7 rDRtg: +3.8 rTS%, -.2 reFG%
2016 Warriors, -2.6 rDRtg: +2.1 rTS%, +5.4 reFG%

Jordan

1993 Knicks, -8.3 rDRtg, -1.4 rTS%, -1.2 reFG%
1997 Heat, -6.1 rDRtg, -6.1 rTS%, -7.1 reFG%
1996 Sonics, -5.5 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, -4.0 reFG%
1989 Cavs, -4.9 rDRtg, +6.1 rTS%, +5.3 reFG%
1990 Pistons, -4.6 rDRtg, +2.9 rTS%, +2.4 reFG%
1986 Celtics, -4.6 rDRtg, +4.3 rTS%, +4.5 reFG%
1997 Hawks, -4.4 rDRtg, -3.0 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1985 Bucks, -4.3 rDRtg, +2.2 rTS, -2.5 reFG%
1996 Knick, -4.1 rDRtg, -.8 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1996 Heat, -3.8 rDRtg, +5.7 rTS%, -2.3 reFG%
1998 Pacers, -3.4 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, +2.4 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1991 Lakers, -2.9 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1988 Pistons, -2.7 rDRtg, +1.1 rTS%, +1.1 reFG%
1997 Jazz, -2.7 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, +.1 reFG%


Notice the stark contrast at the very top (-5 or better) which showcases how not all -4 defenses are the same (a -8 defense cannot belong in the same tiering as a -4 defense which i believe is a bit of a small oversight on yours and 70'sfan otherwise excellent data set)

I wonder if the difference here between yours and homecourtloss data may be that you are going off ts% over league average while he is going of ts% relative to rival average? (Please correct me if i am mistsken)

To put in perspective how relevant i believe this to be. Better defensive teams will usually allow lower ts%

so if league average was, lets say, 54%ts and you scored at 54%ts vs a elite 50%ts defense it wouldnt be a mediocre/average efficiency. Quite the opposite

Now imagine a guy scores 54% ts vs a mediocre 54% ts allowed defense.... are those two performances really the same because both are league average efficiency?

The reason of looking at performances vs the best defenses faced is, after all, precisely that the same performance vs different levels of defense are not equally impressive

Is very interesting data, but i think that if we get more granular, at least specifically in the relative efficiency aspect we can get a fairly different conclusion which i consider more correct based on the reasons i exemplified above

To exemplify this with the dataset from homecourtloss

lebron "-4 or better" defenses faced actually trend fairly north of jordan "-4 or better defenses faced. Most of jordan rivals in that range are in the 4.0-5.0 range while most of lebron ones are in the 6.0-8.0 range.

to put this in perspective. Lebron 14 defenses at -4 or better drsting were an -average- a -5.9 defense

Jordan 10 defenses -4 or better faced average a -5.1 defense. Almost a full point worse despite both being all -4 defenses

That -0.8 difference is significant at the margins, but more importantly than that

Lebron averaged a relative +3.2 efficiency on these 14 -5.9 average defenses ( i am averaging out all the series without weighing by games played but rather on a series, well, average basis)

Jordan averaged a relative +1.2 efficiency on these -5.1 average defenses

And if i rise slightly the standard of "elite" to -5 defenses faced lebron maintains a +2.1relative efficiency vs 8 opponents with -6.7 defense average

Jordan against -5 defense or better has only 3 series, averaging -2.6 relative efficiency against 3 opponentd averaging a similar -6.6 defense average


Is very interesting data, but i think that if we get more granular, at least specifically in the relative efficiency aspect we can get a fairly different conclusion which i consider more correct based on the reasons i exemplified above

at least for the specific comparision of scoring efficiency since of course evsluating a offensive centerpiece performance against the toughest deffensive opossition goes beyond how efficiently you scored
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#292 » by ty 4191 » Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:52 pm

falcolombardi wrote:
Hi ty!, interesting post, although some of the numbers jumped at me cause they seemed fsirly different at a glance from what i remembered from other posters work (no need to read the whole thingh, bolded the relevant parts

homecourtloss wrote:Posted this in the Taylor Greatest Peaks thread

LeBron faced more elite defenses in the East and then in the Finals than did Jordan and fared better scoring efficiency wise agaisnt those defenses than did Jordan, and even more so if you look at free throw rates and relative effective FG %s. Of course, Jordan had higher volume.

Through 2018, 47% of LeBron’s playoff series were played against top 5-top 6 basically tied for top 5 defenses; LeBron played against 6 of the top 30 [4-2] and 7 of the top 35 defenses [4-3] in NBA history (rDRtg) which is ludicrous considering the events that have to happen for that to happen.

Top defenses faced

-8 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-7 rDRtg: Jordan 0, LeBron 3
-6 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 4
-5 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-4 rDRtg: Jordan 7, LeBron 5

-3 rDRtg: Jordan 4, LeBron 3

-3 DRtg or better: Jordan 14, LeBron 17
-4 DRtg or better: Jordan 10, LeBron 14
-5 DRtg or better: Jordan 3, LeBron 9
-6 DRtg or better: Jordan 2, LeBron 8
-7 DRtg or better: Jordan 1, LeBron 4

LeBron

2008 Celtics, -8.6 rDRtg: -6.0 rTS%, -7.3% reFG% to what Celtics allowed
2014 Pacers, -7.4 rDRtg: +9.6 rTS%, +13.1 reFG%
2011 Celtics, -7.0 rDRtg: +1.2 rTS%, +5.0 reFG%
2011 Bulls, -7.0 rDRtg: +4.6% rTS%, +.7 reFG%
2007 Spurs, -6.6 rDRtg: -11.3% rTS%, -9.3 reFG%
2012 Celtics, -6.4 rDRtg: +6.0 rTS%, +10.3 reFG%
2009 Magic, -6.4 rDRtg: +4.7% rTS%, +5.8 reFG%
2013 Pacers,-6.1 rDRtg: +7.4 rTS%, +11.0 reFG%
2016 Hawks, -5.0 rDRtg: +3.2 rTS%, +8.0 reFG%
2017 Warriors, -4.8 rDRtg: +7.8 rTS%, +12.9 reFG%
2018 Celtics, -4.7 rDRtg: +5.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2013 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: -.6 rTS%, + .7 reFG%
2015 Warriors, -4.2 rDRtg: -5.7 rTS%, -3.9 reFG%
2010 Celtics, -3.8 rDRtg: +1.3 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2012 Knicks, -3.6 rDRtg: +7.0 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
2006 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg: -2.0 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2014 Bobcats, -2.9 rDRtg: +13.0 rTS%, +11.6 reFG%
2018 Raptors, -2.7 rDRtg: +2.7 rTS%, +6.7 reFG%
2013 Bulls, -2.7 rDRtg: +3.8 rTS%, -.2 reFG%
2016 Warriors, -2.6 rDRtg: +2.1 rTS%, +5.4 reFG%

Jordan

1993 Knicks, -8.3 rDRtg, -1.4 rTS%, -1.2 reFG%
1997 Heat, -6.1 rDRtg, -6.1 rTS%, -7.1 reFG%
1996 Sonics, -5.5 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, -4.0 reFG%
1989 Cavs, -4.9 rDRtg, +6.1 rTS%, +5.3 reFG%
1990 Pistons, -4.6 rDRtg, +2.9 rTS%, +2.4 reFG%
1986 Celtics, -4.6 rDRtg, +4.3 rTS%, +4.5 reFG%
1997 Hawks, -4.4 rDRtg, -3.0 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1985 Bucks, -4.3 rDRtg, +2.2 rTS, -2.5 reFG%
1996 Knick, -4.1 rDRtg, -.8 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1996 Heat, -3.8 rDRtg, +5.7 rTS%, -2.3 reFG%
1998 Pacers, -3.4 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, +2.4 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1991 Lakers, -2.9 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1988 Pistons, -2.7 rDRtg, +1.1 rTS%, +1.1 reFG%
1997 Jazz, -2.7 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, +.1 reFG%


Notice the stark contrast at the very top (-5 or better) which showcases how not all -4 defenses are the same (a -8 defense cannot belong in the same tiering as a -4 defense which i believe is a bit of a small oversight on yours and 70'sfan otherwise excellent data set)

I wonder if the difference here between yours and homecourtloss data is that you are going off ts% over league average while he is going of ts% relative to rival average

To put in perspective how relevant i believe this to be. Better defensive teams will usually allow lower ts%

so if league average was, lets say, 54%ts and you scored at 54%ts vs a elite 50%ts defense it wouldnt be a mediocre/average efficiency. Quite the opposite

Now imagine a guy scores 54% ts vs a mediocre 54% ts allowed defense.... are those two performances really the same because both are league average efficiency?

The reason of looking at performances vs the best defenses faced is, after all, precisely that the same performance vs different levels of defense are not equally impressive

Is very interesting data, but i think that if we get more granular, at least specifically in the relative efficiency aspect we can get a fairly different conclusion which i consider more correct based on the reasons i exemplified above

To exemplify this with the dataset from homecourtloss

lebron "-4 or better" defenses faced actually trend fairly north of jordan "-4 or better defenses faced. Most of jordan rivals in that range are in the 4.0-5.0 range while most of lebron ones are in the 6.0-8.0 range.

to put this in perspective. Lebron 14 defenses at -4 or better drsting were an -average- a -5.9 defense

Jordan 10 defenses -4 or better faced average a -5.1 defense. Almost a full point worse despite both being all -4 defenses

That -0.8 difference is significant at the margins, but more importantly than that

Lebron averaged a relative +3.2 efficiency on these 14 -5.9 average defenses ( i am averaging out all the series without weighing by games played but rather on a series, well, average basis)

Jordan averaged a relative +1.2 efficiency on these -5.1 average defenses

And if i rise slightly the standard of "elite" to -5 defenses faced lebron maintains a +2.2 relative efficiency vs 9 opponents with -6.7 defense average

Jordan against -5 defense or better has only 3 series, averaging -2.6 relative efficiency against 3 opponentd averaging a similar -6.6 defense average

Is very interesting data, but i think that if we get more granular, at least specifically in the relative efficiency aspect we can get a fairly different conclusion which i consider more correct based on the reasons i exemplified above, at least for the specific comparision of scoring efficiency


Hi Falco,
Great post and great work from homecourtloss! Just curious, does this include their entire careers? My data set does.

Here is my data set for Net Rating. Sorry, it's a bit or a mess. :)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wMi7Spb6ypHAonfIt0XidIFX6kZAkokQSit_vrPtpcU/edit#gid=0

I'll ask 70'sFan for his dataset/spreadsheet for Defensive Rating.

Yes, I used TS% compared to league average TS%. Didn't think to scale it otherwise.
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#293 » by falcolombardi » Wed Dec 28, 2022 12:40 am

ty 4191 wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Hi ty!, interesting post, although some of the numbers jumped at me cause they seemed fsirly different at a glance from what i remembered from other posters work (no need to read the whole thingh, bolded the relevant parts

homecourtloss wrote:Posted this in the Taylor Greatest Peaks thread

LeBron faced more elite defenses in the East and then in the Finals than did Jordan and fared better scoring efficiency wise agaisnt those defenses than did Jordan, and even more so if you look at free throw rates and relative effective FG %s. Of course, Jordan had higher volume.

Through 2018, 47% of LeBron’s playoff series were played against top 5-top 6 basically tied for top 5 defenses; LeBron played against 6 of the top 30 [4-2] and 7 of the top 35 defenses [4-3] in NBA history (rDRtg) which is ludicrous considering the events that have to happen for that to happen.

Top defenses faced

-8 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-7 rDRtg: Jordan 0, LeBron 3
-6 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 4
-5 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-4 rDRtg: Jordan 7, LeBron 5

-3 rDRtg: Jordan 4, LeBron 3

-3 DRtg or better: Jordan 14, LeBron 17
-4 DRtg or better: Jordan 10, LeBron 14
-5 DRtg or better: Jordan 3, LeBron 9
-6 DRtg or better: Jordan 2, LeBron 8
-7 DRtg or better: Jordan 1, LeBron 4

LeBron

2008 Celtics, -8.6 rDRtg: -6.0 rTS%, -7.3% reFG% to what Celtics allowed
2014 Pacers, -7.4 rDRtg: +9.6 rTS%, +13.1 reFG%
2011 Celtics, -7.0 rDRtg: +1.2 rTS%, +5.0 reFG%
2011 Bulls, -7.0 rDRtg: +4.6% rTS%, +.7 reFG%
2007 Spurs, -6.6 rDRtg: -11.3% rTS%, -9.3 reFG%
2012 Celtics, -6.4 rDRtg: +6.0 rTS%, +10.3 reFG%
2009 Magic, -6.4 rDRtg: +4.7% rTS%, +5.8 reFG%
2013 Pacers,-6.1 rDRtg: +7.4 rTS%, +11.0 reFG%
2016 Hawks, -5.0 rDRtg: +3.2 rTS%, +8.0 reFG%
2017 Warriors, -4.8 rDRtg: +7.8 rTS%, +12.9 reFG%
2018 Celtics, -4.7 rDRtg: +5.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2013 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: -.6 rTS%, + .7 reFG%
2015 Warriors, -4.2 rDRtg: -5.7 rTS%, -3.9 reFG%
2010 Celtics, -3.8 rDRtg: +1.3 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2012 Knicks, -3.6 rDRtg: +7.0 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
2006 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg: -2.0 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2014 Bobcats, -2.9 rDRtg: +13.0 rTS%, +11.6 reFG%
2018 Raptors, -2.7 rDRtg: +2.7 rTS%, +6.7 reFG%
2013 Bulls, -2.7 rDRtg: +3.8 rTS%, -.2 reFG%
2016 Warriors, -2.6 rDRtg: +2.1 rTS%, +5.4 reFG%

Jordan

1993 Knicks, -8.3 rDRtg, -1.4 rTS%, -1.2 reFG%
1997 Heat, -6.1 rDRtg, -6.1 rTS%, -7.1 reFG%
1996 Sonics, -5.5 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, -4.0 reFG%
1989 Cavs, -4.9 rDRtg, +6.1 rTS%, +5.3 reFG%
1990 Pistons, -4.6 rDRtg, +2.9 rTS%, +2.4 reFG%
1986 Celtics, -4.6 rDRtg, +4.3 rTS%, +4.5 reFG%
1997 Hawks, -4.4 rDRtg, -3.0 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1985 Bucks, -4.3 rDRtg, +2.2 rTS, -2.5 reFG%
1996 Knick, -4.1 rDRtg, -.8 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1996 Heat, -3.8 rDRtg, +5.7 rTS%, -2.3 reFG%
1998 Pacers, -3.4 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, +2.4 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1991 Lakers, -2.9 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1988 Pistons, -2.7 rDRtg, +1.1 rTS%, +1.1 reFG%
1997 Jazz, -2.7 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, +.1 reFG%


Notice the stark contrast at the very top (-5 or better) which showcases how not all -4 defenses are the same (a -8 defense cannot belong in the same tiering as a -4 defense which i believe is a bit of a small oversight on yours and 70'sfan otherwise excellent data set)

I wonder if the difference here between yours and homecourtloss data is that you are going off ts% over league average while he is going of ts% relative to rival average

To put in perspective how relevant i believe this to be. Better defensive teams will usually allow lower ts%

so if league average was, lets say, 54%ts and you scored at 54%ts vs a elite 50%ts defense it wouldnt be a mediocre/average efficiency. Quite the opposite

Now imagine a guy scores 54% ts vs a mediocre 54% ts allowed defense.... are those two performances really the same because both are league average efficiency?

The reason of looking at performances vs the best defenses faced is, after all, precisely that the same performance vs different levels of defense are not equally impressive

Is very interesting data, but i think that if we get more granular, at least specifically in the relative efficiency aspect we can get a fairly different conclusion which i consider more correct based on the reasons i exemplified above

To exemplify this with the dataset from homecourtloss

lebron "-4 or better" defenses faced actually trend fairly north of jordan "-4 or better defenses faced. Most of jordan rivals in that range are in the 4.0-5.0 range while most of lebron ones are in the 6.0-8.0 range.

to put this in perspective. Lebron 14 defenses at -4 or better drsting were an -average- a -5.9 defense

Jordan 10 defenses -4 or better faced average a -5.1 defense. Almost a full point worse despite both being all -4 defenses

That -0.8 difference is significant at the margins, but more importantly than that

Lebron averaged a relative +3.2 efficiency on these 14 -5.9 average defenses ( i am averaging out all the series without weighing by games played but rather on a series, well, average basis)

Jordan averaged a relative +1.2 efficiency on these -5.1 average defenses

And if i rise slightly the standard of "elite" to -5 defenses faced lebron maintains a +2.2 relative efficiency vs 9 opponents with -6.7 defense average

Jordan against -5 defense or better has only 3 series, averaging -2.6 relative efficiency against 3 opponentd averaging a similar -6.6 defense average

Is very interesting data, but i think that if we get more granular, at least specifically in the relative efficiency aspect we can get a fairly different conclusion which i consider more correct based on the reasons i exemplified above, at least for the specific comparision of scoring efficiency


Hi Falco,
Great post and great work from homecourtloss! Just curious, does this include their entire careers? My data set does.

Here is my data set for Net Rating. Sorry, it's a bit or a mess. :)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wMi7Spb6ypHAonfIt0XidIFX6kZAkokQSit_vrPtpcU/edit#gid=0

I'll ask 70'sFan for his dataset/spreadsheet for Defensive Rating.

Yes, I used TS% compared to league average TS%. Didn't think to scale it otherwise.


It is a bit of an issue because no source i know directly tracks allowed true shooting, so homecourtloss had to put in the work to manually tract these from what i remember

A impressive effort but one that is not as easily acssesible
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#294 » by migya » Wed Dec 28, 2022 3:26 am

ty 4191 wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:Even more importantly the level of competition has nothing to do with how good you are. Does Michael Jordan become a worse player if a worse team had upset the Utah Jazz twice? Of course not, that would be silly. Players do not get to control who they play. So any argument relying heavily on a perceived strength of opponent(while also ignoring matchups which we know IRL matter--see the 8th seeded We Believe Warriors who went 8-2 against the 67 win Mavs. The Mavs lost 19 games in the RS and playoffs combined. 8 of them were to the Warriors. Just posting the SRS of the Warriors misses a bunch of the story(also ignores the major in-season trade they made and how much better they were after it).


There are flukes and outliers, sure. But, 70sFan and I went through 37 playoff series for Jordan and 50 for LeBron. What you're referring to- outliers- (I would think) that they would even out over 179 games and 266 games, respectively.

I realize the research is just numerical and (ergo) ostensibly reductive especially in a narrative sense...however... I was seeking to cut through all the microscopic minutiae and personal biases and anecdotal palavers (and rampant bombast) on here (as a person without a horse in the race in this particular debate).

Texas Chuck wrote:So, that's not "proof" of anything. Nor even if it were does it tell us anything remotely conclusively about who the better player was Jordan or James.


It's only proof that MJ faced better defenses and teams, relative to his own era, than LeBron did, overall.

And no. It doesn't prove who was better; that is logically impossible to prove numerically.

Who was better is likely an irreconcilable debate, since they didn't play against each other. Very dissimilar and distinct rules, opponents, etc. etc.

It's irreconcilable, but the debate will rage on, ad perpetuum and ad nauseum...forever.


One of the most significant factors to me is the rules and physicality difference of the eras both players played in. Defenses against Lebron may have been more technical but Jordan faced unfair hard physical treatment, particularly with Detroit and New York, and it affects a player differently. Players are much more affected knowing they're going to get treated in such a rough physical way that it gets in their heads, including the chance of getting injured which not only could affect their goal in wanting to win but may also affect their future, including financially, because a significant injury can impact their ability to perform and thus get a better contact. This was far more impactful and present in Jordan's era than Lebron's. Some players in the 80s and 90s could've been much better players if the environment was less "dangerous" and they did what was normal and played it safe and thought of their well being.
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#295 » by Eagle4 » Wed Dec 28, 2022 7:16 am

AEnigma wrote:Damn, I forgot Lebron played with 2006 Wade. Here I was remembering Wade with declining athleticism and bad knees. Guess that is on me, no idea where I got that idea.

In before “2011”.

You mean the year Bron choked? Wade has 2FMVPs and 4 titles if not for the "GOAT" wetting the bed. Bron stans love sweeping this huge career blunder under the rug but we all remember.
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#296 » by AEnigma » Wed Dec 28, 2022 7:30 am

Yeah he probably would have been better off losing in the conference finals like your guy. :roll:
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#297 » by homecourtloss » Wed Dec 28, 2022 4:15 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
migya wrote:Looks like substantial proof. :wink:


It is. Jordan faced better teams and better defenses in the playoffs. 8-)

(And, if you had any idea how much time it took 70s'Fan and I, you'd laugh out loud!) :lol:


ty 4191 wrote:
migya wrote:Looks like substantial proof. :wink:


It is. Jordan faced better teams and better defenses in the playoffs. 8-)

(And, if you had any idea how much time it took 70s'Fan and I, you'd laugh out loud!) :lol:


Jordan did not face “better defenses.” See the post from falcom above quoting me. He also wasn’t as resilient against this defenses (again, see post above).

Ranked by Relative Defensive Rating

James played against the #4 (2008 Celtics), #14 (2014 Pacers) #17 (2011 Celtics), #18 (2011Bulls), #23 (2007 Spurs), #25 (2012 Celtics), #27 (2009 Magic) #33 (2013 Pacers) best defenses in NBA history as measured by relative defensive rating. Seems almost impossible that one player would wind up playing this many all-time great defenses.

Jordan played against the #9 (1993 Knicks), #34 (1997 Heat), #57 (1996 Sonics)

-8 rDRtg teams played
LeBron 1, Jordan 1

-7 rDRtg teams played
LeBron 3, Jordan 0

-6 rDRtg teams played
LeBron 4, Jordan 1

-5 rDRtg teams played
LeBron 1, Jordan 1

-4 rDRtg teams played
LeBron 5, Jordan 8

-3 rDRtg teams played
LeBron 3, Jordan 4

Games played against -5 DRtg or better

James, 40
Jordan, 17

Ranked Br Raw defenses:

2012 Celtics, 98.2
2008 Celtics, 98.9
2014 Pacers, 99.3
1993 Knicks, 99.7
2013 Pacers, 99.8
2007 Spurs, 99.9
2011 Celtics, 100.3
2011 Bulls, 100.3
1997 Heat, 100.6
2009 Magic, 101.9
1996 Sonics, 102.1

LeBron against -2.5 rDRtgs or better

2008, Celtics, -8.6 rDRtg, -6.0 rTS%, -7.3% reFG%
2014, Pacers, -7.4 rDRtg, +9.6 rTS%, +13.1 reFG%
2011, Celtics, -7.0 rDRtg, +1.2 rTS%, +5.0 reFG%
2011, Bulls, -7.0 rDRtg, +4.6% rTS%, +.7 reFG%
2007, Spurs, -6.6 rDRtg, -11.3% rTS%, -9.3 reFG
2012, Celtics, -6.4 rDRtg, +6.0 rTS%, +10.3 reFG%
2009, Magic, -6.4 rDRtg, +4.7% rTS%, +5.8 reFG%
2013, Pacers,-6.1 rDRtg, +7.4 rTS%, +11.0 reFG%
2016, Hawks, -5.0 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +8.0 reFG%
2017, Warriors, -4.8 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +12.9 reFG%
2018, Celtics, -4.7 rDRtg, +5.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
2014, Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg, +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2013, Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg, -.6 rTS%, + .7 reFG%
2015, Warriors, -4.2 rDRtg, -5.7 rTS%, -3.9 reFG%
2010, Celtics, -3.8 rDRtg, +1.3 rTS%, -.9 reFG%, 103.2
2012, Knicks, -3.6 rDRtg, +7.0 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
2006, Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, -2.0 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2014, Bobcats, -2.9 rDRtg, +13.0 rTS%, +11.6 reFG%
2018, Raptors, -2.7 rDRtg, +2.7 rTS%, +6.7 reFG%,
2013, Bulls, -2.7 rDRtg, +3.8 rTS%, -.2 reFG%
2016, Warriors, -2.6 rDRtg, +2.1 rTS%, +5.4 reFG%

LeBron’s Best rTS% and reFG% performances regardless of defense

2017 Raptors, -1.0 rDRtg, +17.7 rTS%, +15.3 reFG%
2013 Bucks, -.7 rDRtg, +14.4 rTS%, +17.7 reFG%
2014 Nets, +1.0 rDRtg, +14.2 rTS%, +10.7 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg, +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2016 Raptors, -1.2 rDRtg, +12.6 rTS%, +16.0 reFG%
2010 Bulls, -2.3 rDRtg, +12.5 rTS%, +15.0 reFG%
2009 Hawks, -.7 rDRtg, +12.3 rTS%, +15.2 reFG%

Jordan vs. -2.5 rDRtgs or better

1993, Knicks, -8.3 rDRtg, -1.4 rTS%, -1.2 reFG%
1997, Heat, -6.1 rDRtg, -6.1 rTS%, -7.1 reFG%
1996, Sonics, -5.5 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, -4.0 reFG%
1989, Cavs, -4.9 rDRtg, +6.1 rTS%, +5.3 reFG%
1990, Pistons, -4.6 rDRtg, +2.9 rTS%, +2.4 reFG%
1986, Celtics, -4.6 rDRtg, +4.3 rTS%, +4.5 reFG%
1997, Hawks, -4.4 rDRtg, -3.0 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1985, Bucks, -4.3 rDRtg, +2.2 rTS, -2.5 reFG%
1996, Knicks, -4.1 rDRtg, -.8 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1992, Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1992, Knicks, -4.0 rDRtg, +2.1 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1996, Heat, -3.8 rDRtg, +5.7 rTS%, -2.3 reFG%
1998, Pacers, -3.4 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
1991, Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989, Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, +2.4 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1991, Lakers, -2.9 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1988, Pistons, -2.7 rDRtg, +1.1 rTS%, +1.1 reFG%
1997, Jazz, -2.7 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, +.1 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances regardless of defense

1992, Heat, +2.4 DRtg, +13.7 rTS%, +10.1 reFG%
1991, Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989, Knicks, -.3 rDRtg, +10.9 rTS%, +6.2 reFG%
1992, Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1988, Cavs, -2.0 rDRtg, +9.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
lessthanjake wrote:Kyrie was extremely impactful without LeBron, and basically had zero impact whatsoever if LeBron was on the court.

lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
parapooper
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#298 » by parapooper » Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:00 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
Playoff Defensive Strength of Opposition:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

LeBron James (2008-18):

RS: 37.8 mpg, 7.6 rpg, 7.5 apg, 3.5 tov, 27.3 ppg on 52.1% FG, 35.0% 3FG, 74.2% FT and 60.4% TS (+6.30% rTS)

Against Bad Defenses (2.91% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 9.5 rpg, 7.7 apg, 2.8 tov, 29.8 ppg on 48.3% FG, 29.0% 3FG, 70.1% FT and 58.2% TS (+4.16% rTS)

Against Average Defenses (34.95% of playoffs games): 40.8 mpg, 9.1 rpg, 7.0 apg, 3.5 tov, 29.8 ppg on 52.5% FG, 31.0% 3FG, 75.6% FT, 60.8% TS (+6.55% rTS)

Against Good Defenses (24.76% of playoffs games): 41.2 mpg, 8.9 rpg, 7.7 apg, 3.4 tov, 27.3 ppg on 49.1% FG, 33.0% 3FG 74.8% FT and 58.2% TS (+4.16% rTS)

Against Elite Defenses (26.21% of playoffs games): 42.6 mpg, 9.8 rpg, 6.9 apg, 3.8 tov, 31.5 ppg on 49.6% FG, 37.5% 3FG, 71.1% FT and 57.9% TS (+3.90% rTS)

Against All-Time Great Defenses (11.17% of playoffs games): 42.0 mpg, 7.1 rpg, 6.0 apg, 4.0 tov, 25.8 ppg on 44.4% FG, 32.7% 3FG, 77.0% FT and 54.7% TS (+0.64% rTS)

Michael Jordan (1985-98):

RS: 38.6 mpg, 6.3 rpg, 5.4 apg, 2.8 tov, 31.5 ppg on 50.6% FG, 33.2% 3FG, 83.8% FT and 58.0% TS (+4.27% rTS)

Against Bad Defenses (3.35% of playoffs games): 37.7 mpg, 8.2 rpg, 5.5 apg, 2.5 tov, 39.7 ppg on 57.0% FG, 46.2% 3FG, 89.8% FT and 63.8% TS (+10.44% rTS)

Against Average Defenses (36.31% of playoffs games): 41.7 mpg, 6.7 rpg, 5.7 apg, 2.9 tov, 34.6 ppg on 49.5% FG, 33.6% 3FG, 81.8% FT, 56.9% TS (+3.51% rTS)

Against Good Defenses (27.37% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 6.1 rpg, 5.9 apg, 3.1 tov, 32.1 ppg on 49.9% FG, 37.1% 3FG 81.3% FT and 57.9% TS (+4.40% rTS)

Against Elite Defenses (29.61% of playoffs games): 42.5 mpg, 6.4 rpg, 5.5 apg, 3.3 tov, 32.7 ppg on 46.4% FG, 27.7% 3FG, 84.3% FT and 55.2% TS (+1.54% rTS)

Against All-Time Great Defenses (3.35% of playoffs games): 41.5 mpg, 6.2 rpg, 7.0 apg, 2.3 tov, 32.2 ppg on 40.0% FG, 40.0% 3FG, 86.8% FT and 52.2% TS (-1.42% rTS)

Full Careers:
Lebron vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
22.1% of total playoff games played
42.3 MPG
26.3 PGG
7.8 RBG
6.5 AST/G
rTS%: -1.3%

Jordan vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses
33.0% of total playoff games played
42.1 MPG
32.7 PPG
6.3 RBG
6.3 AST/G
rTS%: 0.15%


If I take the same numbers listed above against elite + all time great defenses I get the following weighted averages:

Lebron vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
37.4% of total playoff games played - of which 3/10 against ATG defenses
29.8 PGG @56.9%TS
9.0 RBG
6.6 AST/G
rTS%: +2.9%

Jordan vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses
33.0% of total playoff games played - of which 1/10 (=1 series in his entire career) against an ATG defense
32.7 PPG @54.9%TS
6.4 RBG
5.6 AST/G
rTS%: +1.2%

So using the criteria + splits above:
LeBron played 1.1x MJs % of PS games against elite + ATG defenses
despite playing a 3x higher fraction of those games against ATG defenses he averaged:
0.9x MJ's points @2.4x MJs rTS%
->2.2x MJs points scored above average TS (0.9 vs. 0.4)
1.4x MJ's rbd
1.2x MJ's ast
ty 4191
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Posts: 2,598
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#299 » by ty 4191 » Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:23 pm

parapooper wrote:
If I take the same numbers listed above against elite + all time great defenses I get the following weighted averages:

Lebron vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
37.4% of total playoff games played - of which 3/10 against ATG defenses
29.8 PGG @56.9%TS
9.0 RBG
6.6 AST/G
rTS%: +2.9%

Jordan vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses
33.0% of total playoff games played - of which 1/10 (=1 series in his entire career) against an ATG defense
32.7 PPG @54.9%TS
6.4 RBG
5.6 AST/G
rTS%: +1.2%

So using the criteria + splits above:
LeBron played 1.1x MJs % of PS games against elite + ATG defenses
despite playing a 3x higher fraction of those games against ATG defenses he averaged:
0.9x MJ's points @2.4x MJs rTS%
->2.2x MJs points scored above average TS (0.9 vs. 0.4)
1.4x MJ's rbd
1.2x MJ's ast


Hey brother,
Thanks for the info and the correction. :)

If you can explain how you got the weighted averages mathematically, I will amend everything in my OP. And, I will also let 70'sFan know to do the same with his work, here:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1836300

Thank you!! :D
OhayoKD
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Posts: 6,042
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Re: When would you generally say LeBron surpassed MJ all-time? 

Post#300 » by OhayoKD » Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:26 pm

ty 4191 wrote:
parapooper wrote:
If I take the same numbers listed above against elite + all time great defenses I get the following weighted averages:

Lebron vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses:
37.4% of total playoff games played - of which 3/10 against ATG defenses
29.8 PGG @56.9%TS
9.0 RBG
6.6 AST/G
rTS%: +2.9%

Jordan vs. Elite + All Time Great Defenses
33.0% of total playoff games played - of which 1/10 (=1 series in his entire career) against an ATG defense
32.7 PPG @54.9%TS
6.4 RBG
5.6 AST/G
rTS%: +1.2%

So using the criteria + splits above:
LeBron played 1.1x MJs % of PS games against elite + ATG defenses
despite playing a 3x higher fraction of those games against ATG defenses he averaged:
0.9x MJ's points @2.4x MJs rTS%
->2.2x MJs points scored above average TS (0.9 vs. 0.4)
1.4x MJ's rbd
1.2x MJ's ast


Hey brother,
Thanks for the info and the correction. :)

If you can explain how you got the weighted averages mathematically, I will amend everything in my OP. And, I will also let 70'sFan know to do the same with his work, here:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1836300

Thank you!! :D

If you don't mind i'd just like to note you should factor in or at least acknowledge if there's any disparity in the length of time or # of games/seasons being compared as averages tend to go down the more you play.

Tho iirc kareem is the big big winner in all this since iirc he looks the best in this thing right?

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