2019-20 NBA Season Discussion

[therealbig3]

There are also plenty of non-bubble examples of a team with the best SRS not winning the title or losing to “inferior” teams, so if anything here was a bad take, it was your over-reliance on SRS.

[Dupp]

There are also plenty of non-bubble examples of a team with the best SRS not winning the title or losing to “inferior” teams, so if anything here was a bad take, it was your over-reliance on SRS.

Iirc 18 cavs vs raptors there was a massive gap in SRS

[Basileus777]

There are also plenty of non-bubble examples of a team with the best SRS not winning the title or losing to “inferior” teams, so if anything here was a bad take, it was your over-reliance on SRS.

Iirc 18 cavs vs raptors there was a massive gap in SRS

A damning case against Kyle Lowry's all time candidacy.

[Dupp]

And if warriors don’t get injured they beat any team.

They are another great example of regular season not being a great way to draw conclusions. They had been through 3 straight finals and sleep walked through the season because that’s all they had to do. Really were only were pushed against the rockets. Everything outside of that series is seriously misleading to draw conclusions from in regard to the warriors. Finals was obviously a mess because of two injuries to key guys.

[therealbig3]

And if warriors don’t get injured they beat any team.

They are another great example of regular season not being a great way to draw conclusions. They had been through 3 straight finals and sleep walked through the season because that’s all they had to do. Really were only were pushed against the rockets. Everything outside of that series is seriously misleading to draw conclusions from in regard to the warriors. Finals was obviously a mess because of two injuries to key guys.

01 Lakers had a 3.74 SRS, which was only 6th in the league.

[TheGOATRises007]

I feel like it's not a foregone conclusion the Lakers or Clippers win the title like I initially thought prior to the bubble + playoffs.

Could see a surprise NBA champ this year.

[freethedevil]

A multi-month break that every team went through, and the Bucks weren't doing that great before the break anyway.

You mean when giannis was injured for three games? Yes how relevant to how well the bucks play with giannis lmao.

They still would have needed to win another series against another great team in order to win.

A great team they outperformed in every way in both the rs and th eplayoffs. I'll settle for bucks were the second best team in the playoffs, if that pleases your pendatic urges

A multi-month break that every team went through

Yes, it turns out every team goes through the same break before the start of every season, that doesn't mean we suddenly assumes teams reacted to the same stimuli in an identical fashion. The Bucks clearly started playing a lot worse with giannis than they did before. they played a lot worse in the corresponding playoffs then they did before.

So if your take is "their srs means nothing", it can only work if you willfully ignore context, which again, proves that take isn't a good one.

I said SRS means nothing? Pretty sure I said the opposite.

You said the bucks srs meant nothing for them over the last two seasons which implies that them being the second best team in the playoffs last year is somwhoe nothing.

[og15]

You don't udnerstand the argument?

People are using the non-buuuble bucks rs to suggest the rs is meaingless and then ignoring they were terrible duiring the bubble regular season.

I think that's pretty straightforward.

The bubble sample size and situation was not representative of the team unless one wants it to be. They were 2-2 in games where Giannis actually played proper minutes, losing to Houston (-4) and Dallas (-4). They were 5-3 pre-bubble without Giannis. If we take limited sample sizes, they were 2-4 in February including two double digit losses Miami (-16) and Lakers (-10)

Essentially it is a convenient cop out with a small sample size.

The playoffs are in the bubble, how is the bubble rs not significant? Playoffs are inherently small sample size.


Its a convenient cop out to form a narrative based on bubble play while ignoring bubble play. In 2019 the bucks were very good in the playoffs correlating with a very good rs. In 2020, they started playing badly in the bubble and are now getting clapped by a team very similar both in construction and quality to the celtics team they absolutely decimated in a nonbubble postseason.

So why would we assume the bucks, who have never looked like even the 2019 bucks in the bubble would are indicative of how the bucks would have performed before a multi-month off break?

The bubble sample size was small and included teams getting back in shape. The bubble sample size was also against all playoff teams for the most part, so teams numbers would not be the same as regular season where you get to play bad teams. The Bucks sample size WITH Giannis in the bubble regular season was 6 games, two in which he played <16 minutes, so the only useful sample was 4 games (vs BOS, vs HOU, vs MIA (no Butler), vs DAL). Milwaukee wasn't playing their guys the same minutes or at all in all the games, so to suggest that those games were more representative of them is disingenuous, especially after they then beat Orlando by an average of 14.5 pts and held them to 103 Ortg, -5.5 Ortg compared to their regular season.

If we look at other teams, Miami was 3-5 in the bubble regular season, because Denver was 3-5 in the bubble regular season. The bubble sample size is not adequate to say "oh they were just bad in the bubble and if not for the bubble they would be much better", as if the bubble only affects them. Also the playoff bubble sample is more representative of their team, not the regular season bubble, and in the playoffs they were doing well vs Orlando, though of course, Orlando is not a good team, but relative to how good Orlando is. They averaged 117.8 ppg in their wins and never let Orlando reach 110 pts (the new 100 pts). In the wins, the Ortg/Drtg were 114.1 Ortg / 100.0 Drtg. So they had a +14.1 NetRtg in their 4 straight wins.

[Dupp]

I feel like it's not a foregone conclusion the Lakers or Clippers win the title like I initially thought prior to the bubble + playoffs.

Could see a surprise NBA champ this year.

I actually think that view has been solidified imo because bucks have no chance. Guess Miami and Houston have a decent chance. I’m
Pretty confident an LA team wins.

I was also confident the bucks would best Miami so what do I know

[freethedevil]

I feel like it's not a foregone conclusion the Lakers or Clippers win the title like I initially thought prior to the bubble + playoffs.

Could see a surprise NBA champ this year.

i dunno what to think about the west. I feel like rockets might be the best if their defense is really sustainable.

[Basileus777]

I feel like it's not a foregone conclusion the Lakers or Clippers win the title like I initially thought prior to the bubble + playoffs.

Could see a surprise NBA champ this year.

I don't know how surprising it would really be based on even preseason expectations. The Lakers if anything have overachieved with a flawed roster. The Clippers have disappointed when it comes to their defense, but I don't feel like anything so far is really that shocking.

[MyUniBroDavis]

This is fully a situation where the lakers have all the tools to dominate but they simply arent using them.

On paper this should be a 4-5 game win. The lakers can make adjustments but the rockets cannot. However the lakers winning is contingent on utilizing theit size. We literally saw it whenever they ran 2 bigs, it makes harden more hesitent ti drive in the halfcourt, and gives more spacing in the offense because while the rockets are fine sagging off of our shooters they cant help off of the lob threats because of the height disparity

The lakers don't have good shootwers against a strong perimiter defense and they don't have perimiter defenders against a strong perimiter offense. They don't have the tools to win in 4 or 5.

No, they fully have the TOOLS to win in 4 or 5, they just arent using them. The idea that you have to go small against the rockets isnt true at all. Going small is what precisely killed spacing, the paint isnt packed when you go big. Its counterintuitive but they cant help off someone like mcgee in drives and isolations because of the height disparity

And defensively you can pretty much tell when harden drives based off of how many bigs are on the floor. Hes less likely to drives with bigs on the floor, and forcing him into stepbacks isnt a bad thing

You could literally see it when mcgee was playing with ad at the start. Harden was struggling to score outside of that phantom three point foul, offensively we had an open paint since tucker couldnt help at all

And this is with lebron somehow forgetting how to lob a basketball

Anyone saying LA should go small isnt paying attention

[freethedevil]

I feel like it's not a foregone conclusion the Lakers or Clippers win the title like I initially thought prior to the bubble + playoffs.

Could see a surprise NBA champ this year.

I don't know how surprising it would really be based on even preseason expectations. The Lakers if anything have overachieved with a flawed roster. The Clippers have disappointed when it comes to their defense, but I don't feel like anything so far is really that shocking.

If anyone actually thought a team without a top flight rim protector was going to be on the level of the league's best defences they deserve to be dissapointed.

No, they fully have the TOOLS to win in 4 or 5, they just arent using them. The idea that you have to go small against the rockets isnt true at all. Going small is what precisely killed spacing, the paint isnt packed when you go big. Its counterintuitive but they cant help off someone like mcgee in drives and isolations because of the height disparity

I didn't say anything about going small. But small or not, when you're facing a team that shoots a lot you want good perimiter defenders. Lakers have two in ad and lebron. Losing avery bradley really **** them.

[MyUniBroDavis]

I feel like it's not a foregone conclusion the Lakers or Clippers win the title like I initially thought prior to the bubble + playoffs.

Could see a surprise NBA champ this year.

I don't know how surprising it would really be based on even preseason expectations. The Lakers if anything have overachieved with a flawed roster. The Clippers have disappointed when it comes to their defense, but I don't feel like anything so far is really that shocking.

If anyone actually thought a team without a top flight rim protector was going to be on the level of the league's best defences they deserve to be dissapointed.

No, they fully have the TOOLS to win in 4 or 5, they just arent using them. The idea that you have to go small against the rockets isnt true at all. Going small is what precisely killed spacing, the paint isnt packed when you go big. Its counterintuitive but they cant help off someone like mcgee in drives and isolations because of the height disparity

I didn't say anything about going small. But small or not, when you're facing a team that shoots a lot you want good perimiter defenders. Lakers have two in ad and lebron. Losing avery bradley really **** them.

They only shoot alot through hardens penetration which he doesnt do as much when a team goes bigger against him

[70sFan]

I honestly think Brook Lopez is the second best player on the team and is better than Khris Middleton. Lopez has kind of been treated unfairly and basically bullied by fans and the media for a lot of his career, but he was always good and a much better defender than his reputation suggested.

I agree and it's despite him beng treated like a roleplayer by coach and fans. Brook is just damn good basketball player.

It’s crazy how good brook is in Milwaukee, on both sides...


In regards to him and his size should be punishing Miami.. I dunno I wouldn’t go searching to exploit it too often. If things are forced I don’t think it’ll have a positive effect. However he should be getting some more shots.

I mean, Milwaukee force Giannis drives anyway and it doesn't work (to say the least). They are forced to play in inefficient way, they need to search for other options. I don't think there are many other options than Lopez. Another thing is that I believe Giannis shouldn't play as much with Lopez as he does. They don't work that well offensively, Giannis turns Lopez into corner shooter and Lopez doesn't have enough space inside because of Giannis lack of shooting.

[freethedevil]

I don't know how surprising it would really be based on even preseason expectations. The Lakers if anything have overachieved with a flawed roster. The Clippers have disappointed when it comes to their defense, but I don't feel like anything so far is really that shocking.

If anyone actually thought a team without a top flight rim protector was going to be on the level of the league's best defences they deserve to be dissapointed.

No, they fully have the TOOLS to win in 4 or 5, they just arent using them. The idea that you have to go small against the rockets isnt true at all. Going small is what precisely killed spacing, the paint isnt packed when you go big. Its counterintuitive but they cant help off someone like mcgee in drives and isolations because of the height disparity

I didn't say anything about going small. But small or not, when you're facing a team that shoots a lot you want good perimiter defenders. Lakers have two in ad and lebron. Losing avery bradley really **** them.

They only shoot alot through hardens penetration which he doesnt do as much when a team goes bigger against him

really?

you got examples of games where the rox volume of threes was low

[MyUniBroDavis]

If anyone actually thought a team without a top flight rim protector was going to be on the level of the league's best defences they deserve to be dissapointed.



I didn't say anything about going small. But small or not, when you're facing a team that shoots a lot you want good perimiter defenders. Lakers have two in ad and lebron. Losing avery bradley really **** them.

They only shoot alot through hardens penetration which he doesnt do as much when a team goes bigger against him

really?

you got examples of games where the rox volume of threes was low

I mean just look up cranjis on twitter and hes been breaking it down for the past week

I dont wanna sound like im sucking him off but hes been right on every series so far including the miami one and he had a huge writeup on the rockets

A tldr would be
- hardens more hesitent to drive against non small ball
- rockets can leverage their way to give harden completely open driving lanes against 1 big lineups, not as mich against 2
- rockets players shoot horriblt outside of open threes gotten almost exclusively through penetration
- harden last night scored 1ppp on isos against non small ball (including the phantom three pointer foul) and 1.3 vs small ball
- the opposite was true on offense for lebron and davis isos
- lebron was missing countless lobs and they were still a positive in big ball lineups

Essentially, as much as the idea is that rockets players pull the trigger on three alot, which they do, which is why their three poont percentage is fairly low, in actuality when uou account for openness only 2 of their players are above average, although imo some of this probably is still volume

Otoh with small ball they could get spacing on offense but the lakers offensive coaches arent competent enough offensively, and as high as lebrons bball iq is he doesnt make the playbook

I mean intuitively it makes sense. The rockets only really run their offense through harden mismatch isoes 99% of the time, but d antoni is a genius at knowing how to position the defense and get hardeb mismatches. Lou was actually similar (bot as good obv) in this regard in lebron second stint cavs lineups, although he had other huge problems

Vogel is not someone thats very good at this. Defensively hes ok but stopping houstan is more about dettering hardeb from driving in. Most of their threes are directly off of harden penetration ot p and r and the chaos that ensues rather than anything else, no one else is really a big iso threat. Gordan went off yesterday but thats not gonna happen consistently, westbrook is westbrook, you can live with his isoes

[Joey Wheeler]

I feel like it's not a foregone conclusion the Lakers or Clippers win the title like I initially thought prior to the bubble + playoffs.

Could see a surprise NBA champ this year.

I definitely think it's a foregone conclusion that the Clippers are NOT going to win. I don't think they'd still be alive if Porzingis wasn't injured for the series. Poorly built team, no rim protection, no playmakers on offense. Honestly Denver has a chance this series, they have no answer to Jokic; but either way Lakers and Rockets is the de facto final. East teams are better units and superbly coached but lack the star power.

[MisterHibachi]

Mark Jackson might be right, Giannis's low minutes may be due to his stamina, which seems mind-boggling for someone of his physical profile. I didn't see him ask out for a breather, but seems like he was exhausted heading into the timeout.

[Fadeaway_J]

Mark Jackson might be right, Giannis's low minutes may be due to his stamina, which seems mind-boggling for someone of his physical profile. I didn't see him ask out for a breather, but seems like he was exhausted heading into the timeout.

I'd find that argument a lot more persuasive if he hadn't already played multiple playoff series at a high level where he averaged over 40 mpg. The only thing we know for certain is that the league MVP is missing almost a third of the most important games of the season.