2020-21 NBA Season Discussion

[GSP]

Positives for Nuggets - Jokic still playing well, headed home, MPJ can’t play much worse, Barton looked alright in his return

Negatives - CP3 is eating them alive

If Dozier isn't back they have 0 shot. He can at least defend guards. 5'9 Campazzo and Austin Rivers aren't gonna cut it. They're lucky Portland can't play defense because Dame got anything he wanted

[Texas Chuck]

Between my debates with 70s and Doc I now find myself asking myself a Kobe/Nash question that I am absolutely terrified to actually ask. But if some of their theory stuff is right I think I have to conclude I've had the wrong guy as the better offensive player and that's doubly confusing to me because I'm pretty sure Doc and I have long thought the same guy was the better offensive player and while I don't recall ever discussing it with 70s I think he does to.

But these Giannis/Kawhi arguments really has been thinking maybe I've had it all wrong.

Sounds like you're concluding that Kobe was the better offensive player with some reluctance. If so that's an understandable position and I hope my recent bloviations haven't made you feel like you'd be better off just avoiding more conflict with me. My apologies if that's at all the case. I don't want to make people feel that way.

What theory stuff are you talking about?

Why would I want to avoid discussions with you? I certainly wouldn't call any of it conflict. And yes I'm starting to wonder if Kobe's approach might have more playoff resiliency than Nash's.

The Giannis part is Giannis is unquestionably a great regular season offensive player. His individual and team numbers both tell us that. Playoffs he's less effective and more dependent on teammates. Nash for the most part was still very effective as an individual offensive player but his teams fell short quite a bit.

The Kawhi part is your discussion about him manipulating rosters that aren't actually best suited for him. Similar things with Nash. Teams were always built to give him offensive options at every spot on the court and often played guys up the lineup to make life better for him. Dirk/Finley at center/PF and STAT/Trix the same. Kobe's approach means more conventional lineups and better playoff defense.

And in looking back through champions for a while you see that generally speaking the scoring superstars are faring better than the playmaking ones with Lebron complicating things by being both. Curry, Kawhi, KD, Dirk, Wade, Kobe, Duncan is another tough one since his impact is so much defensive, Shaq, Jordan. Magic is really the guy in the last 40 years to be an exception to this.

So have I had it all wrong in just defaulting to of course Nash is the better offensive player? I think maybe yes. That while it feels completely wrong, come playoff time maybe you really do want that volume guy who isn't as impacted by the variance of teammates. Is this why CP3 has limited playoff success. Why KG never led an upset in Minnesota? Why Jason Kidd teams had a ceiling, etc?

You guys just have me thinking is all.

[bondom34]

Random observation but I glanced at Crowder's basketball reference page and realized how many high profile trades he was in.

The draft pick he was taken with was in the LeBron sign and trade in 2010.

In the Rondo to Dallas trade.

In the Irving to Boston trade.

In the Conley trade.

[Texas Chuck]

So while I'm really not trying to say that Jokic is definitively better because he's leading offenses that are much more effective than any Dirk led, I do take issue with the idea that we should blindly be more impressed with guys just because their competition was dumber.

With apologies, did any of us actually say this about Dirk? I think we simply thought you went too far in declaring a Jokic led offense made Dirk led ones incompetent. Because by that standard now basically every offense prior to say 2015 or so would be incompetent and I don't think that's a reasonable position to hold.

And I don't like time machines, but Dirk only retired 2 years ago and was still a pretty effective offensive player far removed from his prime 4 years ago. So I feel like prime Dirk today probably is a dominating weapon. Just like Jokic arriving 15 years earlier would be dominating as well.

Was just really stunned to see you that dismissive of some really good Maverick offenses is all. I never said I was more impressed with Dirk because of that. But I will say I don't think we should dismiss all of offensive basketball before the last handful of years which if we are dismissing Dirk led offenses we pretty much are.

[eminence]

On pass first guys and playoff offensive impact - Something I think is worth distinguishing is kick-out passers vs lay-down/cutter passers (obviously everyone does some of both, but you get my gist). Kick-out passers seem to be higher variance and overall lower impact in my estimation. I still have great faith in Nash’s O due to how elite he was in the steadier impact passing areas too.

[Dr Positivity]

Definitely feeling the Utah Clippers series the most of the 2nd round ones so far.

[NinjaSheppard]

Seeing the Dirk vs Jokic discussion and I am really struggling to compare players from 2000-2010 and players from the last few years. The league is talented as its ever been but this really feels like a completely different sport being played out there now. It is approaching the passing stats change in the NFL in terms of difference.

[GSP]

Seeing the Dirk vs Jokic discussion and I am really struggling to compare players from 2000-2010 and players from the last few years. The league is talented as its ever been but this really feels like a completely different sport being played out there now. It is approaching the passing stats change in the NFL in terms of difference.

Without handchecking I wonder how teams are gonna start scheming for these wings moving forward. Id argue elite pullup scorers/shooters have never been more valuable in league history than they are now due to the lack of defensive rules.

[70sFan]

I couldn't watch Suns vs Nuggets game again (these terrible time zones!), is there any way for the Nuggets to come back? It looks like Paul-Ayton pair is killing them on offense and Jokic doesn't look unstoppable against Ayton offensively (to be honest, he gets no help on that end).

[TheGOATRises007]

I couldn't watch Suns vs Nuggets game again (these terrible time zones!), is there any way for the Nuggets to come back? It looks like Paul-Ayton pair is killing them on offense and Jokic doesn't look unstoppable against Ayton offensively (to be honest, he gets no help on that end).

I would be surprised if they won more than a game tbh.

Paul looks healthy again and he is slicing them open.

Their guards are getting destroyed vs the Suns.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Seeing the Dirk vs Jokic discussion and I am really struggling to compare players from 2000-2010 and players from the last few years. The league is talented as its ever been but this really feels like a completely different sport being played out there now. It is approaching the passing stats change in the NFL in terms of difference.

Without handchecking I wonder how teams are gonna start scheming for these wings moving forward. Id argue elite pullup scorers/shooters have never been more valuable in league history than they are now due to the lack of defensive rules.

Very interesting thread on twitter I came across recently, that I think is worth sharing

Read on Twitter

[kayess]

Between my debates with 70s and Doc I now find myself asking myself a Kobe/Nash question that I am absolutely terrified to actually ask. But if some of their theory stuff is right I think I have to conclude I've had the wrong guy as the better offensive player and that's doubly confusing to me because I'm pretty sure Doc and I have long thought the same guy was the better offensive player and while I don't recall ever discussing it with 70s I think he does to.

But these Giannis/Kawhi arguments really has been thinking maybe I've had it all wrong.

Sounds like you're concluding that Kobe was the better offensive player with some reluctance. If so that's an understandable position and I hope my recent bloviations haven't made you feel like you'd be better off just avoiding more conflict with me. My apologies if that's at all the case. I don't want to make people feel that way.

What theory stuff are you talking about?

Why would I want to avoid discussions with you? I certainly wouldn't call any of it conflict. And yes I'm starting to wonder if Kobe's approach might have more playoff resiliency than Nash's.

The Giannis part is Giannis is unquestionably a great regular season offensive player. His individual and team numbers both tell us that. Playoffs he's less effective and more dependent on teammates. Nash for the most part was still very effective as an individual offensive player but his teams fell short quite a bit.

The Kawhi part is your discussion about him manipulating rosters that aren't actually best suited for him. Similar things with Nash. Teams were always built to give him offensive options at every spot on the court and often played guys up the lineup to make life better for him. Dirk/Finley at center/PF and STAT/Trix the same. Kobe's approach means more conventional lineups and better playoff defense.

And in looking back through champions for a while you see that generally speaking the scoring superstars are faring better than the playmaking ones with Lebron complicating things by being both. Curry, Kawhi, KD, Dirk, Wade, Kobe, Duncan is another tough one since his impact is so much defensive, Shaq, Jordan. Magic is really the guy in the last 40 years to be an exception to this.

So have I had it all wrong in just defaulting to of course Nash is the better offensive player? I think maybe yes. That while it feels completely wrong, come playoff time maybe you really do want that volume guy who isn't as impacted by the variance of teammates. Is this why CP3 has limited playoff success. Why KG never led an upset in Minnesota? Why Jason Kidd teams had a ceiling, etc?

You guys just have me thinking is all.

But WHY did Nash's teams fall short? Because it certainly wasn't the offense. The 2005 Suns put up a 118 ORTG in an era far harder to do so, eclipsed only by the 2017 Cavs, Warriors in the past 10 years off the top of my head. And... they lost 4-1. Lol. They put up a worse ORTG against the Spurs 2 years later, but we all know what happened that series (and it went to 7!).

[HeartBreakKid]

Between my debates with 70s and Doc I now find myself asking myself a Kobe/Nash question that I am absolutely terrified to actually ask. But if some of their theory stuff is right I think I have to conclude I've had the wrong guy as the better offensive player and that's doubly confusing to me because I'm pretty sure Doc and I have long thought the same guy was the better offensive player and while I don't recall ever discussing it with 70s I think he does to.

But these Giannis/Kawhi arguments really has been thinking maybe I've had it all wrong.

Sounds like you're concluding that Kobe was the better offensive player with some reluctance. If so that's an understandable position and I hope my recent bloviations haven't made you feel like you'd be better off just avoiding more conflict with me. My apologies if that's at all the case. I don't want to make people feel that way.

What theory stuff are you talking about?

Why would I want to avoid discussions with you? I certainly wouldn't call any of it conflict. And yes I'm starting to wonder if Kobe's approach might have more playoff resiliency than Nash's.

The Giannis part is Giannis is unquestionably a great regular season offensive player. His individual and team numbers both tell us that. Playoffs he's less effective and more dependent on teammates. Nash for the most part was still very effective as an individual offensive player but his teams fell short quite a bit.

The Kawhi part is your discussion about him manipulating rosters that aren't actually best suited for him. Similar things with Nash. Teams were always built to give him offensive options at every spot on the court and often played guys up the lineup to make life better for him. Dirk/Finley at center/PF and STAT/Trix the same. Kobe's approach means more conventional lineups and better playoff defense.

And in looking back through champions for a while you see that generally speaking the scoring superstars are faring better than the playmaking ones with Lebron complicating things by being both. Curry, Kawhi, KD, Dirk, Wade, Kobe, Duncan is another tough one since his impact is so much defensive, Shaq, Jordan. Magic is really the guy in the last 40 years to be an exception to this.

So have I had it all wrong in just defaulting to of course Nash is the better offensive player? I think maybe yes. That while it feels completely wrong, come playoff time maybe you really do want that volume guy who isn't as impacted by the variance of teammates. Is this why CP3 has limited playoff success. Why KG never led an upset in Minnesota? Why Jason Kidd teams had a ceiling, etc?

You guys just have me thinking is all.

I'm a bit confused on what you mean because players like Dirk and Duncan are not really high volume players like the other guys you mentioned.

I mean we can pretty much dissect why Garnett, CP3 and Nash's teams lost and it's usually not cause they're not scoring enough. Especially for the latter two.

As for why there is more guys who big time scorers who won championships than guys who dominate through assist - because there are more players in general who dominate through scoring than dominate through assist. It's much more difficult to reach the top tier of basketball playing pass first - just like it is much more difficult for a player to dominate others via defense (Bill Russell). Higher pool of go to scorers than passing savants.

[70sFan]

Seeing the Dirk vs Jokic discussion and I am really struggling to compare players from 2000-2010 and players from the last few years. The league is talented as its ever been but this really feels like a completely different sport being played out there now. It is approaching the passing stats change in the NFL in terms of difference.

Without handchecking I wonder how teams are gonna start scheming for these wings moving forward. Id argue elite pullup scorers/shooters have never been more valuable in league history than they are now due to the lack of defensive rules.

Very interesting thread on twitter I came across recently, that I think is worth sharing

Read on Twitter

This is a bit too much for my taste, Mitchell certainly isn't more useful defensively than Giannis.

[penbeast0]

...

The Kawhi part is your discussion about him manipulating rosters that aren't actually best suited for him. Similar things with Nash. Teams were always built to give him offensive options at every spot on the court and often played guys up the lineup to make life better for him. Dirk/Finley at center/PF and STAT/Trix the same. Kobe's approach means more conventional lineups and better playoff defense....

But WHY did Nash's teams fall short? Because it certainly wasn't the offense. The 2005 Suns put up a 118 ORTG in an era far harder to do so, eclipsed only by the 2017 Cavs, Warriors in the past 10 years off the top of my head. And... they lost 4-1. Lol. They put up a worse ORTG against the Spurs 2 years later, but we all know what happened that series (and it went to 7!).

Wanted to check into this since I've made this argument about Phoenix but not Dallas so I looked at Nash's last 4 years in Dallas since I didn't remember Finley playing the 4.

01 Dirk, Juwan Howard, Shawn Bradley, and Christian Laettner took up almost all minutes with Calvin Booth replacing Laettner's minutes in the playoffs
02 Dirk and Juwan still playing the big minutes when Juwan healthy. When he is injured and in the playoffs, they moved to Adrian Griffin and Eduardo Najera with a variety of other bigs playing smaller minutes.
03 Dirk, Bradley, Raef LaFrentz, Griffin, Walt Williams, and Najera took the minutes at the 4,5 in both regular season and playoffs.
04 Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison both played starter numbers of minutes with Dirk. This might be a year you could say Nelson went small ball as Dirk played mainly center with Walker and Jamison but I'm still not seeing any significant time for Finley as a PF.

So, I'm not buying the Dallas part of this argument for Nash in terms of playing small ball like Phoenix did. They may have used offensive players instead of defensive ones, Nash never had to play with lineups featuring Mark Eaton/Greg Ostertag types eating big minutes, but those players were guys who were career 4s and 5s.

[HeartBreakKid]

Read on Twitter

[Colbinii]

2021 Chris Paul is similar to Prime/Peak John Stockton.

[Doctor MJ]

As we all keep saying it's hard to compare eras, but apples-to-apples, Jokic led an offense this year that makes anything Dirk ran look incompetent

Isn't this a bit too much?

2002 Mavs +7.7 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & +9.0 rORtg in playoffs
2003 Mavs +7.1 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & +11.9 rORtg in playoffs
2004 Mavs +9.0 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & -2.0 rORtg in playoffs (let's face it, this season should've never happened, )
2005 Mavs +4.2 rORtg in reg. season (4th) & +9.1 rORtg in playoffs
2006 Mavs +5.6 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & +7.9 rORtg in playoffs
2007 Mavs +4.8 rORtg in reg. season (2nd) & -0.8 rORtg in playoffs
2008 Mavs +3.6 rORtg in reg. season (8th) & +3.8 rORtg in playoffs
2009 Mavs +2.2 rORtg in reg. season (6th) & +7.4 rORtg in playoffs
2010 Mavs +1.6 rORtg in reg. season (10th) & +1.3 rORtg in playoffs
2011 Mavs +2.4 rORtg in reg. season (8th) & +7.3 rORtg in playoffs

On average, Dirk led +4.8 rORtg offense in regular seasons and +7.3 rORtg offense in playoffs over a decade.

So I want to be clear:

What you're responding to from me absolutely is "too much". I'm using hyperbole in places in this conversation. There are also times when I'm taking a more serious, and a more earnest and respectful, approach. Apologies if this is confusing. Fundamentally I have a lot of respect for Dirk.

As I say that: You're using relative ratings when my statement is one pushing back against relative ratings. I think the way folks have gotten used to essentially ignoring absolute rankings is problematic.

[Doctor MJ]

I think Dirk's gravity is more than just he's a good shooter.

And Dirk led so many high level offenses that I really hate you going to incompetent to describe them even if you only mean relatively. Is it Dirk's fault that offensive growth has continued league wide? Relative to league strength Dirk offenses don't take a backseat to the Nuggets this year much less be incompetent.

Jokic is great and does a number of things better than Dirk could ever dream of. To have the best vision arguably in the world, and the size and passing skills to take advantage of it is absurd alone. Then he's a terrific shooter from range and a load in the post. And he continually balances his scoring with his passing. The man is an offensive savant.

But Dallas got incredible offense when he was a broken down old man out of him, Dwight Powell, Devin Harris, JJ Barea and a 5th guy. To say nothing of those Nash teams or even the Jason Terry teams.

Ugh I hate this because I feel all defensive because I'm a Dirk guy and I really don't want to be. (defensive that is. I'm cool being a Dirk guy ) Jokic is incredible and I have zero issues with anyone who thinks he's better than Dirk. I'm not there yet, but conceded I might should be. But man calling Dirk offenses incompetent in comparison just feels way too far. Again unless this is just my attachment overreacting which admittedly it might be.

Let me apologize Chuck. I was deliberately using more extreme language than I could have to hammer home a point, but it's understandable it made folks feel defensive.

Dirk was an amazing, amazing player. Full stop.

Re: Dirk's gravity is more than just he's a good shooter. Can you elaborate on what you mean by that? Something I'll say up front is that the thing about me saying gravity is about scoring rather than passing is that if you can't pass at all, you don't get the gravitational impact. Late career Dirk "the German Engineer" Nowitzki was specifically very skilled in burning defenses with his passing once they responded to his scoring threat.

Nevertheless, top tier passers have an effect that could be called repulsive in nature, rather than attractive, and hence analogies to electricity or magnetism are more appropriate than gravity. This is where Jokic is at.

[Colbinii]

As we all keep saying it's hard to compare eras, but apples-to-apples, Jokic led an offense this year that makes anything Dirk ran look incompetent

Isn't this a bit too much?

2002 Mavs +7.7 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & +9.0 rORtg in playoffs
2003 Mavs +7.1 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & +11.9 rORtg in playoffs
2004 Mavs +9.0 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & -2.0 rORtg in playoffs (let's face it, this season should've never happened, )
2005 Mavs +4.2 rORtg in reg. season (4th) & +9.1 rORtg in playoffs
2006 Mavs +5.6 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & +7.9 rORtg in playoffs
2007 Mavs +4.8 rORtg in reg. season (2nd) & -0.8 rORtg in playoffs
2008 Mavs +3.6 rORtg in reg. season (8th) & +3.8 rORtg in playoffs
2009 Mavs +2.2 rORtg in reg. season (6th) & +7.4 rORtg in playoffs
2010 Mavs +1.6 rORtg in reg. season (10th) & +1.3 rORtg in playoffs
2011 Mavs +2.4 rORtg in reg. season (8th) & +7.3 rORtg in playoffs

On average, Dirk led +4.8 rORtg offense in regular seasons and +7.3 rORtg offense in playoffs over a decade.

So I want to be clear:

What you're responding to from me absolutely is "too much". I'm using hyperbole in places in this conversation. There are also times when I'm taking a more serious, and a more earnest and respectful, approach. Apologies if this is confusing. Fundamentally I have a lot of respect for Dirk.

As I say that: You're using relative ratings when my statement is one pushing back against relative ratings. I think the way folks have gotten used to essentially ignoring absolute rankings is problematic.

I've recently brought up similar concerns with relative ratings before.

The offensive ratings in today's league are high for a number of reasons but one of them has to do with Heliocentric players and their playmaking abilities. A players who skill-set falls into that category is going to be able to be at the helm of these great offenses where someone who isn't in that mold (Dirk) will not be able to fulfill that same role.

This doesn't make Dirk a worse player but it does raise questions, thought-provoking ones, about what a player can be maximized as as an offensive anchor/player in today's NBA.

I think you are also delusional if you think Dirk could produce a +9 pr even +7.5 Rel Offense in the current landscape of the NBA.