2010-11 Player of the Year thread

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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#301 » by mysticbb » Thu Jun 9, 2011 9:25 am

mopper8 wrote:Well, like I said I'm simply not going to put too much stock into such a small sample size, especially when it's all against one team.


I'm not talking about the finals alone, the numbers I presented are from the whole playoffs. Don't chalk that up with "small sample size", because the differences between regular season and playoffs might be explainable by a different playing style in the playoffs in average. The Heat beat up on weaker teams with Wade and James a lot, now they played stronger teams in the playoffs and their weakness in terms of off-the-ball play shows up more. That is a reasonable explanation for their lower efficiency numbers.
And we are talking about a 19 game sample with 922 minutes, not just 4 games with 192 minutes.

And if we take the 20+ minutes lineups, we are ending up with +2.1 in average (minute weighted) for the lineups with both, and +6.3 for the lineups with only one. A similar picture here.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#302 » by mopper8 » Thu Jun 9, 2011 12:50 pm

Are those adjusted? Again, both play half their minutes together a-with their least effective backcourt mate while b-facing opponent starting lineups

While they play without one another mostly with their more effective backcourt mates against the other teams' bench players.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#303 » by mysticbb » Thu Jun 9, 2011 12:57 pm

mopper8 wrote:Are those adjusted?


Yes, just the adjusted values we can find on basketballvalue.com. Lineups with 20+ minutes, minute weighted averages. You should be able to replicate the numbers.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#304 » by mopper8 » Thu Jun 9, 2011 1:05 pm

I am traveling and posting from my phone so I'll have to look at that tonight. It runs contrary to everything my eyes tell me, having watched all but 1 game this postseason. Still, if the numbers run against that then I should re-think what my eyes are telling me re: Wade & Lebron co-existing.

That being said, you won't convince me
To takenyhenDirk Finals on/off numbers seriously. 4-7 gams is simply not enough.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#305 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 9, 2011 7:08 pm

Just wanted to chime in on the +/-. I'm frankly unsure how to take this information, but it is noteworthy. The most powerful +/- fact I see is visible in the raw numbers over the playoffs:

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus ... it=9&team=

Nowitzki leads the league in raw +/- in the playoffs at +160.
By comparision James is at +64, Wade is at +57.

For perspective, the Heat have out scored their opponents in total by 75 points over the post-season.

That's kind of an amazing difference, particularly when you consider that LeBron, Bosh, and Wade had 3 of the top 4 raw +/- during the regular season, all well ahead of Dirk.

(Of course, by advanced +/- techniques, Dirk's been well ahead of the Heatles all season)

Given that I know small sample size is an issue with playoff +/-, I know that the presence of the Big 3 distorts each others +/-, and my eyes tell me that right now Wade's the best player on the court, I'm wary to go too far with this information.

However, I don't think it should be tossed aside lightly. Literally, the Mavs with Dirk on the court have outscored their opponents way beyond really anything the Heat have done by any combination.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#306 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 9, 2011 7:20 pm

From the b-r blog, best statistical +/- performances since '91:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blo ... ment-50391

Right now, Wade has the 2nd & 3rd best (you know who has #1, #4, #6, #9, #13, #29).
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#307 » by Sinant » Thu Jun 9, 2011 7:34 pm

Manu Ginobili - King of +/-
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#308 » by HeatRing2012 » Thu Jun 9, 2011 7:54 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:From the b-r blog, best statistical +/- performances since '91:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blo ... ment-50391

Right now, Wade has the 2nd & 3rd best (you know who has #1, #4, #6, #9, #13, #29).

those SPMs are adjusted for minutes.

so if player X is the best reserve of all guys, and playing most of his 20 minutes against the garbage bench of the other team - he'll look like a superstar

Imho adjusting +/- for minutes is stupid.
sorry - but I can't see how a guy like Austin Croshere is way ahead of Magic, Stockton, Kidd, Pippen, Lebron etc.
guys like Charlie Ward is way ahead of Jordan, Malone, Barkley ...
other example: James Posey over Hakeem, Robinson, Jordan and so on
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#309 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 9, 2011 7:55 pm

Sinant wrote:Manu Ginobili - King of +/-


Now just to be clear, this is statistical +/- we're talking about. It's a confusing name. It's actually a PER-like stat where the weights are refined using +/-. So you'll notice that Dirk doesn't look at all impressive by this stat despite the fact he's been the clear +/- star.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#310 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jun 9, 2011 7:59 pm

HeatRing2012 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:From the b-r blog, best statistical +/- performances since '91:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blo ... ment-50391

Right now, Wade has the 2nd & 3rd best (you know who has #1, #4, #6, #9, #13, #29).

those SPMs are adjusted for minutes.

so if player X is the best reserve of all guys, and playing most of his 20 minutes against the garbage bench of the other team - he'll look like a superstar


Well, yes it is per minute. Isn't really effecting the very top performances though. Those are all stars.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#311 » by ronnymac2 » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:16 am

All right, so what about tonight's game? We can all agree Nowitzki and Wade played well. What about James?

He played solid defense throughout, made the correct reads throughout the game and ended up with a triple-double. However, he looked kind of detached again, wasn't able to score meaningful points in the fourth quarter (though came up with many assists) and played bad defense on that Terry 3-pointer.

Was that bad defense by James because I'm falling into the trap of the narrative we have started of James being detached and tired, or is it because Terry took and made a difficult shot? Or is it just random bad defense by James that has nothing to do with attitude?

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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#312 » by TMACFORMVP » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:03 am

I think what we also have to look at from his game today is in the context of what this thread is discussing. Did LeBron play well today? Yeah, he had a triple double, and made some plays for his team. But when we go more into what we expect from the best player in the NBA, especially coming off the worst game of his career, he was rather disappointing IMO.

19 shots for 17 points. Only two of those points in the 4th quarter, which marks the fourth(?) game in a row where he's scored two or less points in the fourth quarter. For the series, he has 11 points in the five games in the fourth. Anyways, from the game tonight, his jumper was off the entire game, and couldn't compensate by getting to the free throw line. He settled for the jumper with Kidd on him late in the game, and forced the issue with an offensive foul on the next possession. Those two plays coupled with big plays by Terry offensively was the reason the Mavericks once again came back to steal another victory. Defensively, he had some nice plays, but wasn't particularly good down the stretch, and frankly didn't do much to off-set the barrage from the perimeter by the Mavericks.

I liked how he started the game, lot more post ups, found the open big men for the mid range jumper, and was active on the weak-side, running the floor. But I definitely think aside from a little stretch in the third, he looked lethargic, and completely disappeared in the fourth again. They asked him post game if he should be taking more an offensive role in the fourth quarter. His reply was that offensively wasn't the reason they lost the game. I completely agree, that was the ultimate reason they lost the game, giving WAY too much space to their shooters, but in a situation where the game is close, and the ball is in your hands, LeBron didn't deliver. Again, I hate to judge a season on a single series, but it's becoming harder to put LeBron at #1 when he's failing under the pressure on the BIGGEST state, while his biggest competitor for that #1 spot is thriving under the same light.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#313 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:22 am

Lebron actually had a very good game that will be overlooked. It looked early on like Dallas was going to take em out in a blowout. After Wade got hurt Lebron did a very good job carrying the Heat back into the game.

For me the POY is either Lebron or Howard.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#314 » by mopper8 » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:57 am

ronnymac2 wrote:All right, so what about tonight's game? We can all agree Nowitzki and Wade played well. What about James?

He played solid defense throughout, made the correct reads throughout the game and ended up with a triple-double. However, he looked kind of detached again, wasn't able to score meaningful points in the fourth quarter (though came up with many assists) and played bad defense on that Terry 3-pointer.

Was that bad defense by James because I'm falling into the trap of the narrative we have started of James being detached and tired, or is it because Terry took and made a difficult shot? Or is it just random bad defense by James that has nothing to do with attitude?

How'd he play to you?


His overall game was very good I thought, but it's hard to swallow watching the team take the lead attacking, moving the ball, finding guys for layups, and then lose the lead shooting long Js on stagnant offense. Maybe I'm reacting emotionally right now, but sometimes it feels like both he and Wade can't help themselves, it doesn't matter what is working offensively, they just need to go into hero-ball mode. I think that impression is what drew the ire of so many Miami fans after game 2, and I'm feeling that way right now myself. How many ill-advised long jumpers can you take?

As for the offensive foul, that was a very close call (and replays showed Chandler's heel inside the circle) so I'm not going to fault him for that
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#315 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jun 10, 2011 6:21 am

sp6r=underrated wrote:Lebron actually had a very good game that will be overlooked. It looked early on like Dallas was going to take em out in a blowout. After Wade got hurt Lebron did a very good job carrying the Heat back into the game.

For me the POY is either Lebron or Howard.


Seeing the team play without Wade for long stretches just hammered in more to me that Wade & LeBron have a great deal of redundancy. This is tough because they actually seem to have developed a great feel for each other. They're always finding each other with great looks and easy baskets. Still though, on an average offensive possession, |LeBron + Wade| < |LeBron| + |Wade|.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#316 » by Sinant » Fri Jun 10, 2011 7:02 am

While he had a very nice statistical game, I can't get over the fact that he has six points in the last 4 fourth quarters. That's really really bad.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#317 » by mysticbb » Fri Jun 10, 2011 7:47 am

mopper8 wrote:I am traveling and posting from my phone so I'll have to look at that tonight. It runs contrary to everything my eyes tell me, having watched all but 1 game this postseason. Still, if the numbers run against that then I should re-think what my eyes are telling me re: Wade & Lebron co-existing.


4th game in a row with the same result. Wade and James together on the court != good, James or Wade on the court == good. As Doc pointed it also out, they are making themself redundant. Their impact is lowered by a lot and they can't match the impact of Nowitzki (whether Nowitzki makes his baskets or not). Seriously, look at the spacing Nowitzki provides by just standing around on the perimeter, I seriously never saw a player giving a team so much space due to the fact that he occupies at last one bigger and agile defender and most times gets even the attention of a second one. Nowitzki doesn't need to be involved in the p&r action, because he takes the help defense away from the scene, which helps a lot. I'm going so far that I say that only a very few players had so much impact in the finals as Nowitzki had that so far in the 5 games. And as long as neither Wade nor James can play effectively off the ball, they will have huge problems with an aggressive zone like the Mavericks are playing it at the end of the 4th quarter. 68-25, that is the score over the last 4 fourth quarters after the Heat taken their biggest lead in the 4th quarter. The Mavericks scored 43 points more than the Heat in about 25 minutes! And that's while they had James, Wade and Bosh on the court.

mopper8 wrote:
To takenyhenDirk Finals on/off numbers seriously. 4-7 gams is simply not enough.


You can ignore the +47.3 Net+/- of Nowitzki in the finals, but how aboout +22.9 Net+/- in the 20 games in the playoffs so far? That is a similar value as he had before his knee injury in December and rather similar in the last 15 to 20 games of the regular season, after he seemed to have recovered from the knee and shoulder injury. And he is doing it right now in the finals with a finger injury to his left hand.

You may want to point out the mental lapses on the defense he had in consecutive possessions in the 4th in the last game, but again I will ask you how much effect did that had? Not much overall. The Heat are still at only 98.6 points per 100 possessions offensively when Nowitzki is on the court, they are at 129.1 when Nowitzki is on the bench. Thus you can't chalk that up with incredible defensive players around Nowitzki who would have gotten it done without Nowitzki too.

James again with not a high impact game, Wade with his injury also not much of an impact overall. Thus I'm leaning more and more to:

1. Nowitzki
2. James
3. Howard
4. Wade
5. Rose

Well, Howard might take over James, if he can't get it done in game 6 and the Mavericks are indeed winning the championship. It is really disappointing what James is bringing to the table in the finals, good defense or not (Mavericks are at 109.6 ORtg when James is on the court, 68.2 when he isn't).
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#318 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:11 pm

I'd say mystic and I are mostly on the same page, but...

-I wouldn't say that neither Wade nor LeBron know how to play off ball. The two make fantastic passes to each other all the time which rely on the off ball guy making a good cut. This makes the team's offensive struggles all the more frustrating as obvious ways to improve are being accomplished, and yet still the offense with the two of them on the floor is not operating that much better than with one of them.

It makes me harken back again to Phil Jackson's Bull teams. He turned them from a bit above average to all-time great level not with more scoring threats, but with good role players playing well designed rolls.

2. Let's also be clear that there's no way that the Mavs defense gets 30 points worse per 100 possessions without Dirk in any decent sample size. With that said, people very much underrate Dirk defensively. This is a guy who makes smart plays, will block your shot if you're not careful, and his rebounding on defense isn't nearly so bad as people think (it's offense where he's weak, specifically because he's operates from the perimeter).
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#319 » by JordansBulls » Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:22 pm

Sinant wrote:While he had a very nice statistical game, I can't get over the fact that he has six points in the last 4 fourth quarters. That's really really bad.


Also I noticed that before the finals Lebron had a 3.9 Win Share and Wade had a 3.0 Win Share, now they both have a 3.8 win share which means Lebron has a -0.1 Win Share in the finals.
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Re: 2010-11 Player of the Year thread 

Post#320 » by mopper8 » Fri Jun 10, 2011 6:23 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:I'd say mystic and I are mostly on the same page, but...

-I wouldn't say that neither Wade nor LeBron know how to play off ball. The two make fantastic passes to each other all the time which rely on the off ball guy making a good cut. This makes the team's offensive struggles all the more frustrating as obvious ways to improve are being accomplished, and yet still the offense with the two of them on the floor is not operating that much better than with one of them.

It makes me harken back again to Phil Jackson's Bull teams. He turned them from a bit above average to all-time great level not with more scoring threats, but with good role players playing well designed rolls.


Well, this is one of the problems with Miami right now. Bibby absolutely has not been filling his role, save for 1 game. He doesn't get the team into its offense quickly, he doesn't hit open shots and provide spacing, and he's not great defensively. Haslem is erratic...he still brings good D, but sometimes he misses rotations (which is due to rust, cause he never missed rotations before) or mis-times rebounds, and his mid-range J has been inconsistent. Miller also has been hit-or-miss, due to having no thumbs. Chalmers is really the only role player who has been consistently playing well for Miami.

2. Let's also be clear that there's no way that the Mavs defense gets 30 points worse per 100 possessions without Dirk in any decent sample size. With that said, people very much underrate Dirk defensively. This is a guy who makes smart plays, will block your shot if you're not careful, and his rebounding on defense isn't nearly so bad as people think (it's offense where he's weak, specifically because he's operates from the perimeter).


Yeah, I'm still curious about colinearity issues there.

I'll add, and I think is important, that Doc's |Wade| + |Lebron| > |Wade + Lebron| is not always necessarily true, even if it is true in these Finals. Matchups matter, and not just individual matchups, but team matchups.

When Miami is able to go to their hybrid lineup--big in the backcourt, "small" in the frontcourt--I actually think that equation might reverse. People on the Heat board have been wondering where the Wade/Lebron PnR has gone this series, but its not too surprising to me that we haven't seen since Miami doesn't get much out of it when they're at the 2 and 3, respectively.

But when Lebron is at the 4, Wade running it from the 2 is dynamic. When Wade is running that from the point its unbelievably effective. With James Jones having an injured foot and the Mavs frontcourt punishing Miami's undersized one the first time they tried to go small, we have not seen that lineup much at all. That's limiting.

Miami did play something similar in the 1st half last night and it actually worked for a few minutes so maybe we will see it more.

Also, Miami had a 116 Ortg last night, and were scoring very well with Wade/James/Bosh on the court late into the 4th. I'm not sure how that game can be used as an example of them not working together or struggling against the Dallas zone; they scored 24 points in the fourth, getting a ton of open layups at the rim. How is that bad production?

The problem was giving up 28.
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