RGM Top 100 Vote Thread - The Greatest Player of All-Time

[rrravenred]

To view a basketball porno once may be seen as a misfortune. To watch one twice smacks of carelessness.

<feels bad about using the word "smacks" now>

[GilmoreFan]

Bad yes minister pun

[rrravenred]

Importance of Being Earnest.

[ronnymac2]

Importance of Being Earnest.

Reese Witherspoon was a cutie in the movie version...

[ElGee]

You know, now that we're past #1, I'm beginning to think there could be a problem as this goes on with plurality voting. I guess it's too late now, but it might be in order to get some preferential voting going, to prevent this turning into the UK electoral system. Otherwise once things get really hairy you'll have a situation where a guy with maybe 10 votes out of 37 gets up, just because the other 27 are split on other guys.

I'm thoroughly enjoying having my votes not count. At all. Aren't you?

@drza Similarly, I was using the numbers to try and extend beyond all-nba teams. Not all all-nba team nods are remotely equal. You can have two guys on the same all-nba first team, one who is the GOAT peak player ever, and another who might be the 10th-best guy in the league that year.

Garnett's a great example. He makes all-nba 1st in 2000, but he's not as good as he would be in the next two years. I think it's around 01 or 02 we start talking about play comparable to the Malone Machine. Then he has his 03-05 peak. Judging 06-07 is tricky. 08, clear yes. But 09 the dude's injured, so that's out. 2010 he's hobbled a bit, but even in 10-11, I have a hard time placing him as a top-10 player, and therefore regardless of the accolades (let's say he had 2 more all-nba teams) those seasons aren't in the same ballpark as prime Malone seasons. I see, at most, 9 relevant seasons from KG there. (And by relevant I mean to this discussion, to "prime" seasons. KG's peripheral seasons still "count," but the impact they have on my team is hugely different as an all-star or even borderline all-nba guy compared to a top-3 or top-5 MVP guy.)

But see, I think you're blurring the line here between "longevity" and "quality". You site KG in 2000, where he was 1st team All NBA and 2nd in the MVP vote, but say that doesn't count as being on Malone's level. Whether I agree with you or not (I don't), that's an entirely different criterion than "longevity". FWIW, KG in 2000 vs late 1990 Malone is going to be (quality-wise) the same argument that I'm sure we'll have when it comes to comparing them: Malone is scoring more on higher efficiency, KG is playing more of a distributor role and is better on defense. How you fall on how to value that probably plays a large part in which one you think was the better player, but that is a separate question than longevity.

Longevity-wise, as I pointed out in my last post, KG was "All NBA-caliber" from 1999 through 2011, with the possible exception of his injured year in 2010 when even the +/- numbers indicate that he slipped, so that's a run of 12 out of 13 years of high-end play. You can say that Malone might still have a slight advantage still in longevity over Garnett, but at this point that advantage is small and shrinking every year. Now, you can say that you just think Malone's consistent offense made him a better player than what Garnett brought to the table if that's what you believe, but to me that's now a question of how you value player quality and not a question of longevity anymore.

Actually, the crux of my point is that "longevity" isn't just a span of goodness. (eg Jack Nicklaus winning majors 24 years apart.) What actually happens IN that span is the essence of it, if one cares about how much a player gives you over his career. (That's the focus of my criteria, is it not yours or everyone else's?)

All MVP's aren't the same. Nor are all-nba teams. Therefore, KG giving me 2, 3, 4, 6 extra years as an all-star piece is BARELY shrinking the longevity gap between him and Malone, because Malone's extra seasons were so close to his best seasons...over and over...

I've already outlined comparative players, and have yet to hear it refuted. I really don't understand what's happening here; maybe people just think Malone wasn't top-5 in each of these individual seasons. That's cool. But I'm guessing there's a disconnect between how people value him and what he provided over his career. He's actually very similar to KAJ in many ways ITO of evaluating career impact.

The opposite can be said of Moses. Does he really have an argument for more than 6 seasons of top-5 play? How many of those years are better than Karl's? And more interestingly, how many years does Karl Malone have that are better than Mose's years on the same index?

eg Malone's 5th, 6th, 7th....12th best years are all better than Mose's 5th...12th best.

I'll leave it at that, as I'm ready to discuss someone else for now. Although I'd like to be able to change my nomination vote if Malone only has 2 nods again -- I do certainly have an opinion on KG (my No. 11) over the remaining candidates.

[GilmoreFan]

Not really getting the joke there I'm afraid. Btw, what team are you a fan of elgee? So I can add it to the main page...

[ThaRegul8r]

I'm curious as to why you would choose Marcus Camby, as opposed to saying that Russell and Chamberlain both had higher career rebound rates than Moses Malone, who is an all-time great rebounder, unlike Camby. Reeks of agenda to me.

I picked two players with a similar TRB% who are playing TODAY. And Camby is listed with 19 TRB%, a similar rate as we get for Russell in other seasons (his range was between 18 and 20). That is my agenda.

Hmm. Okay. I thought it might be, as I said, that Camby isn't considered an all-time great rebounder, and thus by extension Russell and Chamberlain wouldn't be as well. People often do that to tear down past players to boost up their current favorite. If that wasn't your intention, then I apologize.

So long as your team gets possession, it shouldn't matter. See, these are the kind of things that statistics don't cover.

As a Bulls fan I know how Rodman got his rebounds, but I also know how Rodman played defense against bigger players in the paint. Anyway, but point was that Russell and Chamberlain didn't grab more rebounds in comparison to the amount of available rebounds than guys like Dwight Howard or Marcus Camby. We also know that players padded their rebounding stats by ignoring their defensive assignments, Rodman on the perimeter, Camby or Love underneath the basket. I give Bill Russell the benifit of the doubt here, because his teams were constantly great defensively with him. That is not true for Chamberlain.

Bill Walton [1976-77], Shaq [1992-93], Dikembe Mutombo [1999-00], Ben Wallace [2001-02, 2002-03] and Marcus Camby [2005-06, 2007-08]. And we know that Russell and Chamberlain both did it.)

Marcus Camby made that list while not being such a big factor defensively (the Nuggets actually played better defensively with their DPOY not on the court, their best defender in reality was Nene). I suspect Chamberlain had a similar approach as Camby, at least that's what I get from the footage. Impactwise I don't see Chamberlain's boxscore numbers translating to such a team success. A similar thing I suspect right now with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, the team with and without him had a lower difference in MOV than I expected. It is interesting that in 1974/75 and 1977/78 this was rather around +8 for him, than the expected +10 or more like the superstars have today. Seems like I overrated Abdul-Jabbar's peak level impact a bit.

You missed the point of what I was saying though. Dwight Howard also isn't blocking the amount of shots that Russell and Chamberlain did, or even as "modern" elite defenders such as Olajuwon, Robinson, Mutombo, Mourning, etc. did. As I said, Russell would defend out to the perimeter. That takes him out of rebounding position. Rodman would stay under the basket and leave his man open in order to grab a rebound. And Camby was overrated.

To prove the point I was trying to make, let's look at all the seasons in which a player has grabbed at least 20% of all available rebounds that we have official data for:

1. Dennis Rodman* 29.73 1994-95 SAS
2. Dennis Rodman* 26.56 1995-96 CHI
3. Dennis Rodman* 26.19 1991-92 DET
4. Dennis Rodman* 25.99 1992-93 DET
5. Dennis Rodman* 25.74 1993-94 SAS
6. Dennis Rodman* 25.61 1996-97 CHI
7. Dennis Rodman* 24.08 1997-98 CHI
8. Jayson Williams 23.78 1995-96 NJN
9. Danny Fortson 23.70 1998-99 DEN
10. Kevin Love 23.63 2010-11 MIN

There's not a single shotblocker to be found. All of these players only rebounded, and didn't block shots, which doesn't result in rebounds. Let’s look at the next 10 highest:

11. Moses Malone* 23.38 1976-77 TOT
12. Ben Wallace 23.24 2002-03 DET
13. Moses Malone* 23.21 1978-79 HOU
14. Swen Nater 22.98 1979-80 SDC
15. Swen Nater 22.83 1976-77 MIL
16. Tom Boerwinkle 22.60 1970-71 CHI
17. Roy Tarpley 22.59 1987-88 DAL
18. Kevin Willis 22.57 1991-92 ATL
19. Moses Malone* 22.30 1977-78 HOU
20. Marcus Camby 22.25 2009-10 TOT

We find two shotblockers. Wallace and Camby. Two of the top 20 seasons all time were posted by players who were also shotblockers as well. Analyzing further, Camby only blocked 1.97 shots per game in the season in question, not even two. That leaves Wallace with 23.2 TRB% and 3.15 blocks per game as the best anyone's rebounded while also being an elite shotblocker, since the NBA has kept track.

21. Clifford Ray 22.13 1971-72 CHI
22. Kris Humphries 22.10 2010-11 NJN
23. Dwight Howard 22.00 2009-10 ORL
24. Dikembe Mutombo 21.93 2000-01 TOT
25. Dwight Howard 21.83 2008-09 ORL
26. Dwight Howard 21.83 2010-11 ORL
27. Jayson Williams 21.79 1997-98 NJN
28. Samuel Dalembert 21.76 2009-10 PHI
29. Danny Fortson 21.75 2001-02 GSW
30. Jerome Williams 21.73 1999-00 DET

Now we have Mutombo and Howard. Mutombo blocked 2.71 in the season in question. We know Howard has never blocked three shots a game in a season. He blocked 2.78, 2.92, 2.38 in the seasons in question. Dalembert blocked 1.84 in his season. We don’t have Ray’s block numbers for ’71-72.

31. Charles Oakley 21.72 1987-88 CHI
32. Dwight Howard 21.67 2007-08 ORL
33. Moses Malone* 21.56 1982-83 PHI
34. Larry Smith 21.38 1980-81 GSW
35. Dennis Rodman* 21.34 1990-91 DET
36. Dikembe Mutombo 21.23 1999-00 ATL
37. Bill Walton* 21.22 1976-77 POR
38. Tom Boerwinkle 21.15 1971-72 CHI
39. Larry Smith 21.14 1986-87 GSW
40. Swen Nater 21.07 1980-81 SD

We have three shotblockers: Howard, Mutombo and Walton. Howard blocked 2.15 per game in his season. Mutombo blocked 3.28 in his season along with grabbing 21.2% of all available rebounds. That's the most shots anyone has blocked so far, while also grabbing 20+% of all available rebounds. Walton blocked 3.25 per game in his season.

41. Kevin Love 20.97 2008-09 MIN
42. Ben Wallace 20.96 2001-02 DET
43. Charles Barkley* 20.94 1997-98 HOU
44. Moses Malone* 20.93 1979-80 HOU
45. Dwight Howard 20.90 2005-06 ORL
46. Charles Barkley* 20.84 1986-87 PHI
47. Erick Dampier 20.80 2003-04 GSW
48. Tyson Chandler 20.68 2006-07 NOK
49. Charles Barkley* 20.65 1996-97 HOU
50. Samuel Dalembert 20.63 2008-09 PHI

Wallace blocked 3.48 per in his season. That's the new standard for players who also grabbed 20% of all available rebounds. Howard blocked 1.40 per in his season. Chandler blocked 1.77 per. Dalembert blocked 1.78 per.

51. Moses Malone* 20.63 1983-84 PHI
52. Shaquille O'Neal 20.63 1992-93 ORL
53. Carlos Boozer 20.59 2006-07 UTA
54. Dwight Howard 20.55 2006-07 ORL
55. Marcus Camby 20.54 2000-01 NYK
56. Charles Oakley 20.44 1986-87 CHI
57. Robert Parish* 20.42 1978-79 GSW
58. Ben Wallace 20.41 2000-01 DET
59. Robert Parish* 20.37 1979-80 GSW
60. Tyrone Hill 20.36 1992-93 GSW

Shaq blocked 3.53 shots per game in his rookie season, which he never approached again. Howard blocked 1.90. Camby blocked 2.16. Parish blocked 2.86 per in ’78-79 and 1.60 in ’79-80. Wallace blocked 2.33.

61. Marcus Camby 20.35 2007-08 DEN
62. Shawn Kemp 20.29 1995-96 SEA
63. Kevin Garnett 20.28 2004-05 MIN
64. Moses Malone* 20.27 1980-81 HOU
65. Robert Parish* 20.13 1988-89 BOS
66. Kevin Garnett 20.12 2003-04 MIN
67. Buck Williams 20.10 1981-82 NJN
68. Wilt Chamberlain* 20.08 1971-72 LAL
69. Zaid Abdul-Aziz 20.06 1973-74 HOU
70. Zach Randolph 20.05 2010-11 MEM
71. Larry Smith 20.04 1981-82 GSW
72. Ervin Johnson 20.03 1996-97 DEN

Camby blocked 3.61 per in 2007-08. Parish blocked 1.45. Garnett blocked a career-best 2.17 per game in 2003-04. Wilt. We know he blocked well over three shots a game.

And those are all of the seasons of 20+ TRB% since the NBA has officially kept tracked.

So leave us with the list I initially posted. And the problem with your statement that Russell and Chamberlain didn't grab the amount of available rebounds that Dwight Howard did, is that Howard, conversely, didn't block the amount of shots that Russell and Chamberlain did. None of the best seasons on record for rebounds of available shots were by shotblockers AT ALL. The more shots you block, the less rebounds you're in a position to grab. Of the 71 seasons that we have and also have the block numbers for (I've removed Wilt, because we know we blocked over 3 shots per game. We just don't know how far over 3, exactly, it was), only 5 of those had elite shotblocking (3+ per game for our purposes) as well. That's 7 percent. And as I reiterate, Russell would go out to the perimeter to block and alter shots. I've seen him go out to pick up a guard and then block their shot. He can't get a rebound from this. This is something that you can't just leave out. (This is also not mentioning the steals Russell would get.)

(Later, as an exercise when I have the time, I'll go over elite shotblocking seasons and see how well they rebounded. I'm curious if anyone's ever taken a look at how much being an elite shotblocker takes away from rebounding opportunities, or specified from the data we have, the theoretical ceiling at the highest number of blocks one can average and the highest number of rebounds one can average simultaneously, and how much an increase in one decreases the other. I'd be interested in that.)

[GilmoreFan]

Sorry, what team are you a fan of?

[rrravenred]

Reg, one factor that I don't see included in there (not indended as a dig) is the three point shot.

They today represent about 22% of the total FGA. Many of these would represent "long" rebounds more likely to be grabbed by a wing as well as representing a reduction in the number of "blockable" shots.

It's an era difference that needs to be considered when looking at the raw numbers.

[ThaRegul8r]

Reg, one factor that I don't see included in there (not indended as a dig) is the three point shot.

They today represent about 22% of the total FGA. Many of these would represent "long" rebounds more likely to be grabbed by a wing as well as representing a reduction in the number of "blockable" shots.

It's an era difference that needs to be considered when looking at the raw numbers.

The point was that, when talking about Russell and Chamberlain vs. Rodman, the former blocked shots in addition to rebounding, while Rodman only rebounded, oftentimes to the neglect of his defensive assignment, and that in comparison to someone like Dwight Howard, Howard does not block as many shots as Russell and Chamberlain did.

And Olajuwon, Robinson, Mutombo, Mourning, Wallace all played during the era of the three-pointer, and all blocked more shots than Howard does. Of those players mentioned, Wallace just blocked nearly three and a half shots within the last 10 years, so it isn't like he did it in some distant age.