2012-13 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[Doctor MJ]

realbig, several of your arguments to me say this:

Harden's cast fits him better than Deron's cast fits him, why penalize Deron for poor fit?

This is a great philosophical point to bring up. In general, I'm not very comfortable penalizing stars for good fit because so much of what makes the very best players the best is that they help create the fit.

Take Dirk in '11 for example. How do you apportion credit when a team doesn't drastically change it's talent level but everything just starts clicking? Options:

A. Give all the new cred to the star.
B. Give all the new cred to the cast.
C. Share the wealth.

Obviously I think C is the only reasonable option.

It's very difficult to go with option C, and then use arguments like "Yeah, but Star A has to deal with Semi-Star B being redundant with him, so going to in effect give Star A some bonus points because he could have done more with someone as talented as B but a better fit". Where there is a team doing poorly relative to the star power involved, I'm not really one for championing a particular star in the mix as you've surely seen with how I view Kobe right now.

The one thing I will say though is that I understand the perspective that if you think think Star X would do better than Star Y in either of their two situations, then it probably doesn't seem that meaningful to cling to the idea that Star Y literally seems to be effecting more impact in his more conducive situation.

[therealbig3]

In what way is a Asik/Parsons/Lin supporting cast better offensively than a Lopez/JJ/Wallace supporting cast? There's no way someone can watch the Rockets for a reasonable amount of time and come to the conclusion that they have anything better than mediocre offensive talent outside of Harden (and I suppose Motiejunas who barely played) - or that McHale is a good coach...

Wallace was arguably the worst offensive player in the league this year.

And McHale is smart enough to have some creative offensive sets and to let Harden do his thing...he looks like Einstein compared to Avery/PJ. The entire offense was designed to be 95% ISOs for the Nets, which was obviously a dumb thing to anyone on the outside, but I guess not for the Nets coaching staff.

JJ was worse than Lin this year. Seriously, he was downright crap.

Lopez is better offensive support than Asik for sure, but Asik is also a tougher player that knows how to pick and roll to the basket, which is a HUGE part of Harden's game, and it makes life easier for him. Lopez is a horrible screener and him and Deron still haven't "clicked" as a result, because that's Deron's bread and butter.

Deron and Lopez were pretty much the only "good" players for the Nets this year, like I said. Everyone else was pretty bad. Blatche was a nice surprise, but again, he's only a backup big man and wasn't any more than an overall average player.

[HeartBreakKid]

Joe Johnson and Gerald Wallace were terrible on offense this year, and the Nets had no offensive system. D-Will basically wasted another year of his career playing with jabronis again, except this time these guys happened to have gone to all-star games when they were younger. Next someone is gonna cite Jerry Stackhouse as an offensive star for the Nets.

[Vinsanity420]

I partially agree with therealbig3 is pretty spot on with his analysis on the Nets weird tendencies to rely on Isolations. This from another forum -

In Brooklyn, Johnson's isolations were expected to go down, freed from the confines of Atlanta's offense and part of a more fluid game that would let him play off Deron Williams. He would take more spot-up shots, come off screens more, and get quicker, smarter shots.

That didn't happen. Johnson's isolations went up significantly. 28% of his offense came in isolation situations in Brooklyn, and another 15.1% of his plays came in the post. That's 43.1% of his plays coming in one-on-one situations. Or, to put it another way: nearly half of Johnson's offense had nothing to do with his teammates in a game with five offensive players.

They have Deron, a Top 5 Point in the mix, so you have to be asking WTF were the Nets thinking doing this. I don't think Joe Johnson was horrible this year. His +/- and on floor O Ratings looked pretty solid, definitely better than Lin's, who's simply an average PG. The Nets simply didn't utilize all their talent very well. Sometimes, you have to look beyond the roster to figure out what's happening. The coaching was lacking.

I feel in the end Deron's first half is pretty damning. I distinctly remember a thread on questioning Deron's status as a Top 10 PG and a complete Sloan product. Brook seemed like the best player on the Nets at that time, and it simply doesn't match what Harden has done during the entire year.

[HeartBreakKid]

I partially agree with therealbig3 is pretty spot on with his analysis on the Nets weird tendencies to rely on Isolations. This from another forum -

In Brooklyn, Johnson's isolations were expected to go down, freed from the confines of Atlanta's offense and part of a more fluid game that would let him play off Deron Williams. He would take more spot-up shots, come off screens more, and get quicker, smarter shots.

That didn't happen. Johnson's isolations went up significantly. 28% of his offense came in isolation situations in Brooklyn, and another 15.1% of his plays came in the post. That's 43.1% of his plays coming in one-on-one situations. Or, to put it another way: nearly half of Johnson's offense had nothing to do with his teammates in a game with five offensive players.

They have Deron, a Top 5 Point in the mix, so you have to be asking WTF were the Nets thinking doing this. I don't think Joe Johnson was horrible this year. His +/- and on floor O Ratings looked pretty solid, definitely better than Lin's, who's simply an average PG. The Nets simply didn't utilize all their talent very well. Sometimes, you have to look beyond the roster to figure out what's happening. The coaching was lacking.

I feel in the end Deron's first half is pretty damning. I distinctly remember a thread on questioning Deron's status as a Top 10 PG and a complete Sloan product. Brook seemed like the best player on the Nets at that time, and it simply doesn't match what Harden has done during the entire year.

Very true about D-Will's start of the season, but how badly should be be penalized for that? Is it a coincidence that as the coaching changed and Williams became more healthy, Williams numbers started to go up? In the end, they still had good seeding at #4, against the Bulls which on paper seemed like a good team to draw in the playoffs. Why is Williams being punished so hard for things that are probably not his fault? I don't see anyone mentioning how the Rockets crapped the bed and gave up their seeding to the Lakers after holding a comfortable place at the 6th and 7th spot for the majority of the season (not that it would have helped in the long run).

Another thing I'd like to point out (Btw, I'm playing Devils Advocate here), people seem to put huge emphasis on the playoffs, hence why guys like Wade are being kicked off list.


How did Harden do better than Williams in the playoffs? In fact, how are they even close? If the playoffs are when things really matter and a test of the stars in the league, then Williams easily out performed Harden. Williams was 20/8 on good efficiency against a much better defensive squad in Chicago.

Now, I know OKC's defensive rating is rated about as high as Chicagos, but I think it is dubious to assume that OKC is an elite defensive team, at least in the post season. Aside from them losing Westbrook, OKC also plays at a high pace, which is the only way Houston can even play. Brooklyn on the other hand is a half court team, against a pretty slow but dominating rebounding team in Chicago.

[ronnymac2]

Does Dwight Howard start to enter the picture for anybody?

[sp6r=underrated]

Does Dwight Howard start to enter the picture for anybody?

His season is underrated and I would be interested in an analysis of a value of his season. As an example I think he had a better season than TD who many are considering for top 5.

I feel he was unfairly criticized for exercising his rights as a free agent like Melo was during his last year with Denver.

[Vinsanity420]

Does Dwight Howard start to enter the picture for anybody?

I was about to say this. If you're considering Deron for a strong 2nd half, then Dwight absolutely enters the picture.

[Doctor MJ]

Does Dwight Howard start to enter the picture for anybody?

He really doesn't.

The notion that possibly 2 different Lakers are getting mentioned as Top 5 player for the year is just crazy to me. You can get to 45 wins with 1 serious talent in the NBA. The Lakers had several even if you try to trim it down based on injuries. There's no reasonable way to divide up the among of "credit" here where these players are serious contender for me.

[Doctor MJ]

I feel he was unfairly criticized for exercising his rights as a free agent like Melo was during his last year with Denver.

If you mean you think that's affecting his status here, no one would care if the Lakers had actually looked good.

[sp6r=underrated]

I feel he was unfairly criticized for exercising his rights as a free agent like Melo was during his last year with Denver.

If you mean you think that's affecting his status here, no one would care if the Lakers had actually looked good.

I disagree.

[Doctor MJ]

Does Dwight Howard start to enter the picture for anybody?

I was about to say this. If you're considering Deron for a strong 2nd half, then Dwight absolutely enters the picture.

I'm not really sold on Deron, but at least with him his hot finish resulted in his results looking much like his peak self. Dwight statistically was back at pre-prime numbers this year ('05-06), and he didn't get any honors that year.

[Vinsanity420]

Does Dwight Howard start to enter the picture for anybody?

I was about to say this. If you're considering Deron for a strong 2nd half, then Dwight absolutely enters the picture.

I'm not really sold on Deron, but at least with him his hot finish resulted in his results looking much like his peak self. Dwight statistically was back at pre-prime numbers this year ('05-06), and he didn't get any honors that year.

Definetely not towards the 2nd half. Lakers gave up 100 D-Rating with him on the floor and 115 with him off. The Lakers minus Kobe were solid on D during that time span. Every game he got into foul trouble, it was the same story... the Laker D went down the toilet. On the defensive end of the floor, he might've been dealing with similar talent to KG's Minny days.

[Doctor MJ]

I was about to say this. If you're considering Deron for a strong 2nd half, then Dwight absolutely enters the picture.

I'm not really sold on Deron, but at least with him his hot finish resulted in his results looking much like his peak self. Dwight statistically was back at pre-prime numbers this year ('05-06), and he didn't get any honors that year.

Definetely not towards the 2nd half. Lakers gave up 100 D-Rating with him on the floor and 115 with him off. The Lakers minus Kobe were solid on D during that time span. Every game he got into foul trouble, it was the same story... the Laker D went down the toilet. On the defensive end of the floor, he might've been dealing with similar talent to KG's Minny days.

What I'm saying is that for all the negatives associated with Deron early on this year, he ended up with full-year numbers right on par with his prime. Dwight has nothing like that going for him.

[TheChosen618]

In what way is a Asik/Parsons/Lin supporting cast better offensively than a Lopez/JJ/Wallace supporting cast? There's no way someone can watch the Rockets for a reasonable amount of time and come to the conclusion that they have anything better than mediocre offensive talent outside of Harden (and I suppose Motiejunas who barely played) - or that McHale is a good coach...

The top tier offensive talents on the Nets is better than the Rockets, but as a whole, the Rockets had the better offensive team. This is mainly because the Rockets have a lot of good shooters. This is actually the diference between PJ and Mchale. PJ played more defensive minded guys over offensive minded guys out there while Mchale played more offensive minded guys over defensive minded guys.

They are both really bad coaches though.

Lopez is better offensive support than Asik for sure, but Asik is also a tougher player that knows how to pick and roll to the basket, which is a HUGE part of Harden's game, and it makes life easier for him. Lopez is a horrible screener and him and Deron still haven't "clicked" as a result, because that's Deron's bread and butter.

Except a large problem with Asik is that he has one of the worst hands in the league and has turned the ball over plenty due to his inability to catch.

[therealbig3]

The top tier offensive talents on the Nets is better than the Rockets, but as a whole, the Rockets had the better offensive team. This is mainly because the Rockets have a lot of good shooters. This is actually the diference between PJ and Mchale. PJ played more defensive minded guys over offensive minded guys out there while Mchale played more offensive minded guys over defensive minded guys.

They are both really bad coaches though.

Except the defensive-minded guys that PJ played sucked defensively anyway, and were atrocious offensively. Gerald Wallace has regressed so badly and was a worse player than Keith Bogans this year (and it's really sad when playing Keith Bogans becomes an offensive decision). Reggie Evans was the worst offensive player in basketball this year (so apologies to Gerald Wallace...I called him the worst before, but he's only 2nd worst to Reggie). They both got a ton of minutes, AT THE SAME TIME, no less.

Joe Johnson's offensive numbers were pretty bad too. It's amazing that the Nets even had a top 10 offense, despite Deron and Brook being the only obviously good offensive players on the team, with no real offensive system outside of ISOs.

[ElGee]

@B_Creamy – I think current Aldridge and 2010 Bosh are comparable. I'd probably rather have current Aldridge. Bosh now is maybe about one SRS point worse than he was in 2010...something on that scale.

The point the article should drive home (faster than I can with detailed video work or quote-mining) is that Portland is trying to revamp stuff this year, and that doesn't make Aldridge a worse player, even if his TS% changes by 2% because they change his role slightly.

@Doc – A lot to chew on there.

First, my biggest gripe with this project over the years has been the “current' year we do and how much people are a prisoner of the moment and specifically access their availability heuristic. It's like, if the guy isn't on TV, he's out of sight and out of mind. Every final 4 seems to heavily populate the top-5, and it's often with "late movement." Does the onus need to be on me to explain why I value players the way I do and am not going to be persuaded because a team advanced an extra round or two? I've done this many times, no?

5 is an arbitrary number. My No. 5 this year would not make my top-10 in 2006. This is because the distribution at the top is slightly smaller and the other top-tier guys have been cut down by injuries. In essence, we are moving farther down the bell curve where players a jammed closer together, so the first thing I want to do is get a guy in the discussion who hasn't been mentioned once in 19 pages. (!) It's interesting to me that basically only one person (and one of two people to discuss LMA the player, not Portland's team), said “oh yeah, let's hear about that.” But there's a psychological bias where, because we are at “top-5,” there is some knee-jerk resistance to suggesting a guy on a -1.8 SRS team be a "top-5" player. If I said LMA was my No. 10 when the league healthy, would people have the same reaction?

Portland's roster and Terry Stotts are not exactly the Bulls and Thibs or the Spurs and Popp. Yet the team plays just under .500 ball with LMA and this somehow isn't impressive to people in what is probably the weakest RPOY vote we've ever had? If Portland truly is a -8 team (19-wins) without LMA, then going to a 36-win pace with him surely would put him on everyone's radar, right?

I don't believe I said Harden and Williams do the same thing, I said they play the same (functional) position, which is true. Williams is a better on-ball lead guard to propel an offense. Harden is a defensive sieve. Williams isn't that bad IMO, so he already has a headstart. On offense, Williams is a better creator IMO, and not statistically buoyed by the drive-and-kick up-tempo offense Houston ran. Again, I think people are obsessed with individual statistics when I'm trying to determine Global Impact. I actually consider Joe Johnson to be a black hole in this equation, not someone who helps Williams.

In general (and you and realbig3 touched on this), you have situations where
-a star looks more valuable than he would be on most teams (eg terrible backup, catered to system)
-a star look as valuable as he would on most teams
-a star looks less valuable than he would be on most teams (bad teammates, bad coach, good backups)

Harden clearly falls in the first group to me, and Williams in the third group. I'm not boosting people because they have terrible backups (more value) and I'm not downgrading them because they play with Antoine Walker (or Joe Johnson) and he steals their shots.

[B_Creamy]

ElGee, do you have any specific contentions you'd like to share against Curry and Parker? Since I assume you have Deron Williams ahead of both of them.

[ElGee]

ElGee, do you have any specific contentions you'd like to share against Curry and Parker? Since I assume you have Deron Williams ahead of both of them.

My contentions with Curry go back to his Davidson days, when he let me down against Kansas. I boldly and publicly predicted Kansas to win the national title, but Curry could not put me out of my bracket misery and slay the beast with his absolutely inexcusable misses. I still can't get over watching someone I perceived to be a human video game miss shots. How dare he make me look so terrible!?

Parker is French. Et je deteste Le Francais!

[bondom34]

ElGee, do you have any specific contentions you'd like to share against Curry and Parker? Since I assume you have Deron Williams ahead of both of them.

My contentions with Curry go back to his Davidson days, when he let me down against Kansas. I boldly and publicly predicted Kansas to win the national title, but Curry could not put me out of my bracket misery and slay the beast with his absolutely inexcusable misses. I still can't get over watching someone I perceived to be a human video game miss shots. How dare he make me look so terrible!?

Parker is French. Et je deteste Le Francais!

Sig worthy?