RealGM Top 100 List #6

DQuinn1575 · Post #301 » by **DQuinn1575** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:28 pm

colts18 wrote:Shaq had very underrated longevity.

This is his xRAPM values for his past prime period (2007-2011):
2007: +4.7
2008: +4.0
2009: +3.3
2010: +1.0
2011: +2.2

Plus he was the only guy who beat prime MJ (91-98) head to head in the playoffs and the only guy to outplay MJ in a series. That has to count for something.

95 was not prime MJ.
beating him that year doesn't really count

rico381 · Post #302 » by **rico381** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 1:30 pm

I would've once again voted LeBron here, but I wasn't able to get to the end of the thread in time. Would've been fun to see him in a runoff with Shaq, since they're fairly similar in terms of statistical dominance, including overpowering physical strength allowing them to score incredibly efficiently in the paint. What I don't see is the case for Magic over LeBron; from what I see, LeBron is like a souped-up version of Magic, who keeps the elite passing, height (and corresponding positional versatility), and sky-high basketball IQ, but adds in elite-level defense, near-GOAT level efficient volume scoring, and three-point range. I haven't really seen this addressed by most of the Magic voters so far, and I'll be pushing on this in the next thread, because as it is, I haven't seen a satisfactory answer to this.

In the runoff, I'm going with Shaq. I'm not sure how much to say that hasn't already been said, and a head-to-head comparison is pretty tough because we're dealing with a point guard and a center. In this case, Magic's probably a little bit ahead in terms of offense (at least on a per-game level), but Shaq differentiates himself on defense. He's not an anchor for your entire defense or anything, but he's still a very solid defensive center, and by some of the RAPM numbers being posted, one of the better defenders in the NBA most years. Magic can't claim anything like that.

To put my reasoning quite simply, I think Shaq had a better peak than Magic, I think his best non-peak seasons were better than Magic's best non-peak seasons, and so on down the line. Shaq's peak is generally agreed on to be a top-3 peak of all time, and he was a truly unstoppable force in the three-peat years in LA. I appreciate some of the posts that added context about Orlando and pre-2000 Shaq, and ElGee's work in showing the relative unimportance of regular-season games. In a way, the current Spurs are a confirmation of them, reducing the regular-season load on their best players intentionally, then following it up with one of the most dominant playoff runs ever. Magic's lack of longevity hurts him too; we're basically looking at 11 full seasons here, counting his rookie year, while Shaq has 14 years in which he made an all-NBA team, for one quick measure of prime length. When that is paired with a peak that, good as it is, doesn't stand up to his competition, I can't pick him over Shaq.

My runoff vote is for Shaquille O'Neal.

MacGill · Post #303 » by **MacGill** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:16 pm

Wow, you take a couple of days away, and the quality of work just continues to gets better here!!

Can't lie, LBJ absolutely deserves the attention he is getting here. I'll be very interested in how longevity is used against him with players like KG & Hakeem (don't think anyone else of longevity has really gotten mentioned yet?)

I am also starting to change my tune some on Bird vs Magic. I think I underrated Bird and right or wrong, it's still irking me that Magic forced himself onto a team which had the current best player in the league. Even though Bird eventually got his dynasty, and he was the main product of it and it was under different but more normal nba circumstances. His first year impact looks to be much more impressive in my eyes now.

I know Owly made a great post about Oscar but does anyone have a link on anything Oscar versus LBJ here?

Baller2014 · Post #304 » by **Baller2014** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:36 pm

I totally agree Bird's first year is amazing, and shouldn't be underrated, it proves right off the bat how huge his impact was. That said, I have no idea how we can penalise Magic for the machinations of his agent before he even got into the NBA. That had no impact on the career he actually had. Worse, Shaq and others being discussed here did the exact same thing... including Bird! Other teams wanted to draft Bird, but he wouldn't give them assurances about when he would come into the league... so they passed, letting the Celtics get him (who Bird had given assurances to I assume). Off the court stuff should only matter if it effected on the court play. Deciding what team to sign with before you enter the NBA hardly qualifies.

JordansBulls · Post #305 » by **JordansBulls** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:45 pm

Finished top 3 in MVP for 9x times which is the 2nd most in NBA History. Has 3 league mvp's, 3 finals mvp's, only other players with that was MJ and Russell would have that if finals mvp's existed at the time.

Vote: Magic Johnson

colts18 · Post #306 » by **colts18** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 2:54 pm

Baller2014 wrote:I totally agree Bird's first year is amazing, and shouldn't be underrated, it proves right off the bat how huge his impact was. That said, I have no idea how we can penalise Magic for the machinations of his agent before he even got into the NBA. That had no impact on the career he actually had. Worse, Shaq and others being discussed here did the exact same thing... including Bird! Other teams wanted to draft Bird, but he wouldn't give them assurances about when he would come into the league... so they passed, letting the Celtics get him (who Bird had given assurances to I assume). Off the court stuff should only matter if it effected on the court play. Deciding what team to sign with before you enter the NBA hardly qualifies.

Magic is criticized more for getting his coach fired.

Baller2014 · Post #307 » by **Baller2014** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:11 pm

MacGill just criticised him for "forcing" his way to the Lakers.

I don't think he gets any blame for the coaching firing either, because off the court stuff should only count against you if it adversely affected the team. Magic getting the wrong coach fired so a better system and coach could be used didn't hinder the team, it helped it.

colts18 · Post #308 » by **colts18** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:16 pm

acrossthecourt wrote:I'll go with LeBron.

I feel that his peak, like '08 to '14, is better than anyone remaining and enough to offset the lack of more seasons. I value peak here a lot, and his all-around excellence and good durability help a lot. I think he beats the other candidates due to their flaws, and Bird/Magic don't have longevity over him.

Tell me where you disagree with this analysis:

First off, I'm looking at 7 year prime (Shaq 96-02 Lebron 08-14):

Peak year:
00 Shaq vs 09 LeBron:
Both had brilliant regular season campaigns. Both teams won 66 games with ~9 SRS. Shaq had the better 2nd star (Kobe) but he only played 66 games. LeBron's 3-12 depth was much better. Supporting cast wise they were pretty equal. I'd say both of their RS were equal. Likely top 5 RS of all-time. RAPM had both of them easily as the best in their seasons. I made a case for both of them having GOAT peak

Shaq 2000 case (warning: long):

Spoiler:

LeBron 2009's case (Warning: Long post):

Spoiler:

Overall they both had dominant playoff runs too. LeBron's being better statistically but Shaq played much tougher defenses. For example both 2000 Phoenix and Portland had better D ratings than the 2009 Magic (who were #1 in 2009). The Hawks and Pistons clearly were weak defenses (though LeBron crushed them. He had a 44 PER against them)

Through the first 3 rounds, I have them tied. The tiebreaker is that Shaq had arguably the greatest finals in history. Averaged 38-17, 61 FG%. I'm not going to punish LeBron for not making the finals, but you can't reward him either.

Verdict: Slight advantage Shaq. At best its tied. the last RealGM project had Shaq as the #2 peak while LeBron was much further back.

Next best year:
01 Shaq vs 13 LeBron:
LeBron has the clear RS advantage. Playing level wise it was kind of close. Both had #1 RAPM, but Shaq did coast a bit. The advantage gets bigger when you factor that Shaq missed 9 games. 2013 LeBron was a brilliant RS. In the playoffs Shaq was obviously better. LeBron had a relatively down 2nd round vs. Chicago while Shaq dominated Sacramento. In the conference final, they were both destroyed good competition. LeBron had one of his top series vs Indiana. I'd give the slight edge to Shaq because his defense was better. Paul George torched LeBron in games 1-6 before LeBron shut him down in game 7. In the finals, it was definitely Shaq who was better. LeBron was clutch from games 4-7, but Shaq put up 33/16 against the DPOY. No one does that (except Shaq). While LeBron's team was all-time good in the RS, they declined in the playoffs. Shaq's team put up the greatest playoff run in history.

Verdict: Tied. Maybe really small advantage Shaq. LeBron's RS might be enough to overcome the playoff advantage of Shaq.

02 Shaq vs 12 LeBron:

Both had relative down RS. But Shaq was better when he actually played. Shaq did miss 15 games though. RAPM definitely has Shaq with the advantage. Shaq finished #1 in RAPM in 2002 (and xRAPM). LeBron did finish #1 in xRAPM but he did it with a smaller margin. In the playoffs, they both had great runs. I'd give LeBron the edge in the conference rounds. Both of them were awesome in the CF series, LeBron gets the edge because Shaq had a down series vs the Spurs while LeBron torched the Pacers. In the finals, Shaq gets the edge. LeBron played brilliantly in the finals. But Shaq had the most underrated finals. He put up 36/12/4, 64 TS% against the #1 defense in the league. The Lakers offense was like +17 in that series.

Verdict: Tied. Possible slight advantage for LeBron because of Shaq's missed games.

98 Shaq vs 14 LeBron:
Play wise, Shaq was better on a per game basis. Your RAPM sats had him at #1 this year. LeBron had a down year in RAPM and an awful defensive RAPM. But Shaq missed 22 games this year. That's enough to give LeBron the advantage. In the playoffs they were both brilliant once again. Shaq had a 31 PER while LeBron had 29 PER. Shaq dominated the 61 win Sonics. Against the Jazz, he was decent. 31/9, 56 FG%. LeBron had a solid series vs Brooklyn. Good series vs Indiana again. His finals was pretty good. I'd say the playoffs were tied this year

Verdict: Tied. This might have been Shaq's best non-2000 season but he did miss 22 games.

10 LeBron vs 96 Shaq:
10 LeBron was on the same level as 09 LeBron in the RS. 96 Shaq had a great impact in the RS, but he missed a lot of games. In the playoffs, Shaq was awesome against the 96 Bulls. He put up 27-11-4, 64 FG% against the greatest team in history. Penny played decent in the series but the rest of Shaq's cast was incompetent. LeBron had a great series vs the Bulls. Then had a great game 1-3 stretch against Boston. But he was bad from games 4-6. Shaq had the better playoff this year.

Verdict: Slight edge LeBron. LeBron's RS was so brilliant that I had to put him ahead even with Shaq having a better elimination series.

99 Shaq vs 11 LeBron:
This was a down RS for Shaq. His defense was inconsistent to say the least. RAPM had them roughly equal in the RS. 11 LeBron was down too. In the playoffs 11 LeBron was solid vs Boston and Chicago. Shaq destroyed Hakeem in the 1st round. Then had a decent series vs SA 24-13, 49 FG% but clearly a down series (2 assists vs 9 TOV). But Shaq's performance came against the greatest frontline in history (opposing centers averaged around 41 FG% vs them). LeBron had one of his worst series vs Dallas. Shaq's elimination series came against a 95 D rating team so adjusted for that it wasn't bad series while LeBron's series was awful.

Verdict: Tied. They are comparable down years. Shaq had the better playoff run once again but LeBron was more consistent in the RS.

Verdict: Tied. LeBron had the better RS while Shaq was better in the elimination series.

97 Shaq vs 08 LeBron:
97 Shaq was clearly one of Shaq's worst prime years though he was better in the playoffs. But against Utah he had his worst 96-02 series. 08 LeBron was decent in the RS but not on the levels of 09-14. In the playoffs his games 1 and 2 performance against Boston was awful. But games 3-7 was he amazing.

Verdict: 08 LeBron. Shaq played just 31 games and had his worst prime elimination series.

Based on that, it was really close. At best you give LeBron a slight advantage. I have it at Shaq 2, leBron 2, 3 tied. I don't see where LeBron had a clear advantage in that span. Even if he did, it doesn't make up for the rest.

Let's compare the rest of their careers

04: Shaq destroys LeBron here. Shaq was the best player this season on a per possession basis even though this was KG and Duncan at their greatest. LeBron was a rookie but his impact wasn't as great as it would become later.

Verdict: Shaq with a huge margin

05: Shaq finishes 2nd in MVP this year. I think he had the better regular season He turned the Heat around from marginal team to elite contender. Shaq's defense was better than LeBron's. Young LeBron wasn't the defensive player he would become later. Shaq had a pretty good playoff this year too. He played really good against a great Pistons defense.

Verdict: Shaq

06: You could certainly argue that Shaq had an equal impact to LeBron on a per game basis but Shaq misses 23 games. He did have a huge impact. The Heat were a 6 SRS team in the games he played and a negative SRS in the games he missed. Shaq was good against the 64 win Pistons defense. LeBron had an amazing series vs my Wizards. He tore us apart. LeBron was good vs Detroit but Shaq had a better series vs them. In the finals, Shaq had a down series. He averaged just 13/10. His FT shooting killed them in this series.

Verdict: Advantage LeBron. Can't ignore those missed games.

05+06: If you combine these two seasons, I have LeBron and Shaq tied. Each won 1 year.

07: Obviously LeBron. Shaq was out of shape this season and clearly declined. LeBron was brilliant vs the Pistons.

Verdict: LeBron by a giant margin.

I have them tied in 05+06 so lets compare 04 and 07. I'll compare their worst year (Shaq 07 LeBron 04) and best years (LeBron 07 Shaq 04)

07 Shaq vs 04 LeBron:
04 LeBron had average impact while Shaq was above average but Shaq played 40 games this year. 07 Shaq averaged 19/9 against Ben Wallace in the playoffs.

Verdict: advantage LeBron. Shaq was lazy this year and missed too many games

04 Shaq vs 07 LeBron
Shaq was clearly better. He missed 15 games but was better when he played. LeBron 07's regular season was down for his standards. In the playoffs he was awesome against the Pistons. But Shaq was awesome too in the western rounds. Shaq played the 04 Spurs D which had the best defense relative to league since the merger. He also played KG's best minnesota defense. Shaq outplayed Peak Duncan and Peak KG in the playoffs (No one else has done that). In the finals Shaq was pretty good against arguably the GOAT defense (04 Pistons). Shaq had a 60+ FG% against 4 time DPOY Ben Wallace. LeBron played a great D but he was awful. 35 FG% in that series and like 6+ TOV/game

Verdict: Shaq. Shaq was #2 this season behind KG.

In that span I have Shaq with a slight advantage overall.

Of course that doesn't include the rest of Shaq's career. here is a recap of that:
93- 23-14 (8th in xRAPM)
94- 29-13, 60 FG% (2nd in xRAPM)
95- 29-11, 58 FG% (2nd in xRAPM) (Plays peak Hakeem to a draw in the finals)

03- 28-11, 30 PER (Behind Duncan this year. He was tied with 03 KG to me. He slightly outplayed KG but it could be argued as a draw. Had a 32 PER vs the Duncan/Robinson frontline).

08-11: Last 4 years of Shaq's career. He made an all-NBA 3rd team in this span.

There is no way those 11 LeBron years can make up for Shaq having the 95 and 03 seasons where he was a top 3 player and 93 and 94 where he was top 5-10.

PCProductions · Post #309 » by **PCProductions** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:26 pm

I just caught up with this thread after doing stuff this weekend. Amazing Garnett posts and I think his case becomes stronger every thread. The last two places had me voting Shaq, and I'm gonna stick with that since it's not a runoff between him and Magic.

Reasons for Shaq over Magic: Longer prime, higher peak play and obvious impact from team to team.

The defense argument against Shaq was pretty compelling and made my opinion of him drop a little, but it's still not enough to vote for Magic who I believe is hamstrung by the HIV thing. If Magic had played out his entire prime and post-prime, I would believe he could have been higher than here. Unfortunately for Magic, I value every season and Shaq has too many quality seasons to overlook.

Vote: Shaq

ardee · Post #310 » by **ardee** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:29 pm

I still want to engage the KG supporters on why they think KG is such a tier above Dirk and deserves to be discussed in the top 5 while Dirk doesn't.

Let me show you some numbers.

1 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '04: 51.3% and 100 ORtg
Dirk '06: 59.6% and 124 ORtg/Dirk '11: 60.9% and 115 ORtg

3 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '02-'04: 51.9% TS and 102 ORtg
Dirk '09-'11: 62.3% TS and 120 ORtg

Prime Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '00-'08 (really '00-'04 and '08, he missed 3): 52.5% TS and 107 ORtg
Dirk '06-'11: 60.2% TS and 121 ORtg

So here's my case: Dirk is basically providing you more volume (6 more ppg/100 poss over their primes), on VASTLY superior efficiency. I mean look at the numbers, the gap is gigantic. Dirk has an edge of 14 ORtg points over their primes, and 8 TS% on better volume.

With Dirk's offensive impact THIS MUCH MORE than KG's, the only way to justify KG being SO MUCH BETTER than Dirk is that his defense is better by a greater amount. And despite the great posts by drza, KG being defensively better than Dirk by that amount would make Dirk look like Amare Stoudemire on defense: which he's not.

Ergo, I think you need to really REALLY overreach with KG's defense if you want to make a case that he's 8-10 spots ahead of a guy who's blowing him out of the water by 15+ ORtg points in the Playoffs on much better volume through the important portions of their careers.

sp6r=underrated · Post #311 » by **sp6r=underrated** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:34 pm

I'm not really trying to argue for Magic here but it is just inaccurate to describe Shaquille O'Neal's 2008 and 2009 campaign as being important.

In 2008, he was positively carcinogenic in Miami raging on management and teammates alike.

When Phoenix acquired him they immediately dropped off from true contenders to good team. In 2009, they adopted a deficient team strategy that helped Shaq but probably didn't do much for the team.

I'll concede both the on/off and counting category of stats support Shaq as being mildly valuable to good player but I'll go against Shaq here. I wouldn't have wanted him on my roster then.

An Unbiased Fan · Post #312 » by **An Unbiased Fan** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:35 pm

Runoff Vote #6: Magic

Haven't had much time to post, this thing just moves along too fast for in depth discussion. Already posted for Magic the last few threads. Don't see how longevity is being used against him, when he has just as many elite regular seasons, and playoff runs as Shaq does within their careers. Shaq's durability certainly factors into that equation considering he missed big chunks of time, and carried injuries/poor shape into playoff runs.

For me, Magic's GOAT offensive trumps Shaq's great offense/mediocre defense. I wondered if the Russell type arguments would last past his selection, and I guess they didn't. Clearly when you look at the Laker's ORtgs, 9 Finals, 5 titles, one can see a clear correlation of Magic's offensive impact.

-GOAT offensive player
-GOAT passer
-GOAT point guard
-Arguably GOAT teammate
-2nd most Finals behind Russell
-4th most rings behind Russell/KAJ/MJ
-9 time All-NBA 1st team
-9 Top 3 MVP finishes

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxBM3dTPc_k[/youtube]

Purch · Post #313 » by **Purch** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:50 pm

ardee wrote:I still want to engage the KG supporters on why they think KG is such a tier above Dirk and deserves to be discussed in the top 5 while Dirk doesn't.

Let me show you some numbers.

1 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '04: 51.3% and 100 ORtg
Dirk '06: 59.6% and 124 ORtg/Dirk '11: 60.9% and 115 ORtg

3 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '02-'04: 51.9% TS and 102 ORtg
Dirk '09-'11: 62.3% TS and 120 ORtg

Prime Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '00-'08 (really '00-'04 and '08, he missed 3): 52.5% TS and 107 ORtg
Dirk '06-'11: 60.2% TS and 121 ORtg

So here's my case: Dirk is basically providing you more volume (6 more ppg/100 poss over their primes), on VASTLY superior efficiency. I mean look at the numbers, the gap is gigantic. Dirk has an edge of 14 ORtg points over their primes, and 8 TS% on better volume.

With Dirk's offensive impact THIS MUCH MORE than KG's, the only way to justify KG being SO MUCH BETTER than Dirk is that his defense is better by a greater amount. And despite the great posts by drza, KG being defensively better than Dirk by that amount would make Dirk look like Amare Stoudemire on defense: which he's not.

Ergo, I think you need to really REALLY overreach with KG's defense if you want to make a case that he's 8-10 spots ahead of a guy who's blowing him out of the water by 15+ ORtg points in the Playoffs on much better volume through the important portions of their careers.

There's an intresting attemp to separate KG from guys like Dirk or Malone in this years project, whiles there's very little I've seen that actually justifies it. I think there's just been a much higher volume of posters specifically dedicated toKG represented in this thread, whiles other posters aren't nearly as dedicated to making sure Dirk or Malone have a high spot. I think in that sense Malone benefitted from the nomination system in the last project, because one his name was out there constantly, it became tougher for posters to ignore.

ardee · Post #314 » by **ardee** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:51 pm

Quick breakdown of how I see Magic/Shaq's careers:

Epic GOAT level years

Shaq: 2000, 2001
Magic: 1987

Very strong superstar years

Shaq: 1995, 1998, 2002
Magic: 1985, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991

Still very impactful overall, but either injured or just not good enough

Shaq: 1994, 2003, 2004
Magic: 1982, 1983, 1984

"Star" years, definitely not in the best in the league discussion

Shaq: 1996, 1997, 2005, 2006
Magic: 1980

More or less irrelevant years

Shaq: 1993, 2007-11
Magic: 1981

Magic basically has a decent lead in really top quality years. Shaq evens it up in the mid to lower impact years of their careers, but really, what are the years when you're going to win the championship?

At best you can call the relevant longevity more or less even, and given Magic's intangibles it gives him the edge for me.

ardee · Post #315 » by **ardee** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:52 pm

Purch wrote:
ardee wrote:I still want to engage the KG supporters on why they think KG is such a tier above Dirk and deserves to be discussed in the top 5 while Dirk doesn't.

Let me show you some numbers.

1 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '04: 51.3% and 100 ORtg
Dirk '06: 59.6% and 124 ORtg/Dirk '11: 60.9% and 115 ORtg

3 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '02-'04: 51.9% TS and 102 ORtg
Dirk '09-'11: 62.3% TS and 120 ORtg

Prime Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '00-'08 (really '00-'04 and '08, he missed 3): 52.5% TS and 107 ORtg
Dirk '06-'11: 60.2% TS and 121 ORtg

So here's my case: Dirk is basically providing you more volume (6 more ppg/100 poss over their primes), on VASTLY superior efficiency. I mean look at the numbers, the gap is gigantic. Dirk has an edge of 14 ORtg points over their primes, and 8 TS% on better volume.

With Dirk's offensive impact THIS MUCH MORE than KG's, the only way to justify KG being SO MUCH BETTER than Dirk is that his defense is better by a greater amount. And despite the great posts by drza, KG being defensively better than Dirk by that amount would make Dirk look like Amare Stoudemire on defense: which he's not.

Ergo, I think you need to really REALLY overreach with KG's defense if you want to make a case that he's 8-10 spots ahead of a guy who's blowing him out of the water by 15+ ORtg points in the Playoffs on much better volume through the important portions of their careers.

There's an intresting attemp to separate KG from guys like Dirk or Malone in this years project, whiles there's very little I've seen that actually justifies it. I think there's just been a much higher volume of posters specifically for KG repressed in this thread, whiles other posters aren't nearly as dedicated to making sure Dirk or Malone have a high spot. I think in that sense Malone benefitted from the nomination system in the last project, because one his name was out there constantly, it became tougher for posters to ignore.

That's why I made this post, I'm waiting for KG voters to justify it.

I honestly don't think they can paint a picture where KG's defense is worth the equivalent of 15+ ORtg points on higher volume.

colts18 · Post #316 » by **colts18** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:59 pm

ardee wrote:Quick breakdown of how I see Magic/Shaq's careers:

Epic GOAT level years

Shaq: 2000, 2001
Magic: 1987

Very strong superstar years

Shaq: 1995, 1998, 2002
Magic: 1985, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991

Still very impactful overall, but either injured or just not good enough

Shaq: 1994, 2003, 2004
Magic: 1982, 1983, 1984

"Star" years, definitely not in the best in the league discussion

Shaq: 1996, 1997, 2005, 2006
Magic: 1980

More or less irrelevant years

Shaq: 1993, 2007-11
Magic: 1981

Magic basically has a decent lead in really top quality years. Shaq evens it up in the mid to lower impact years of their careers, but really, what are the years when you're going to win the championship?

At best you can call the relevant longevity more or less even, and given Magic's intangibles it gives him the edge for me.

How can you say that Shaq was not in the discussion for best player in 2005 when he finished 2nd in MVP and had a good case against Steve Nash?

And I completely disagree with this assessment:
"Still very impactful overall, but either injured or just not good enough

Shaq: 1994, 2003, 2004"

2003 and 2004 definitely belong in the superstar category. In 2003 he was still the 2nd best player in the league behind Duncan. His team finished 5-10 without him. In the playoffs his PER was 31. He had a higher playoff PER in 2003 than he did in any of his 3 peat years.

In 2004 he outplayed both Duncan and KG in the playoffs. He then put up awesome numbers vs Detroit while his supporting cast didn't show up. You could argue he was still the best player this season or at least #2 after KG. You can definitely make a case that he had a better season than Duncan in 2004. Duncan missed a lot of games just like Shaq, then got outplayed by Shaq while having HCA.

Purch · Post #317 » by **Purch** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:59 pm

ardee wrote:
Purch wrote:
ardee wrote:I still want to engage the KG supporters on why they think KG is such a tier above Dirk and deserves to be discussed in the top 5 while Dirk doesn't.

Let me show you some numbers.

1 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '04: 51.3% and 100 ORtg
Dirk '06: 59.6% and 124 ORtg/Dirk '11: 60.9% and 115 ORtg

3 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '02-'04: 51.9% TS and 102 ORtg
Dirk '09-'11: 62.3% TS and 120 ORtg

Prime Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '00-'08 (really '00-'04 and '08, he missed 3): 52.5% TS and 107 ORtg
Dirk '06-'11: 60.2% TS and 121 ORtg

So here's my case: Dirk is basically providing you more volume (6 more ppg/100 poss over their primes), on VASTLY superior efficiency. I mean look at the numbers, the gap is gigantic. Dirk has an edge of 14 ORtg points over their primes, and 8 TS% on better volume.

With Dirk's offensive impact THIS MUCH MORE than KG's, the only way to justify KG being SO MUCH BETTER than Dirk is that his defense is better by a greater amount. And despite the great posts by drza, KG being defensively better than Dirk by that amount would make Dirk look like Amare Stoudemire on defense: which he's not.

Ergo, I think you need to really REALLY overreach with KG's defense if you want to make a case that he's 8-10 spots ahead of a guy who's blowing him out of the water by 15+ ORtg points in the Playoffs on much better volume through the important portions of their careers.

There's an intresting attemp to separate KG from guys like Dirk or Malone in this years project, whiles there's very little I've seen that actually justifies it. I think there's just been a much higher volume of posters specifically for KG repressed in this thread, whiles other posters aren't nearly as dedicated to making sure Dirk or Malone have a high spot. I think in that sense Malone benefitted from the nomination system in the last project, because one his name was out there constantly, it became tougher for posters to ignore.

That's why I made this post, I'm waiting for KG voters to justify it.

I honestly don't think they can paint a picture where KG's defense is worth the equivalent of 15+ ORtg points on higher volume.

I think certain players benefit from not having a nomination system like last project, where players are always visably on the front burner forcing them to be aknowlaged and considered for every spot.

For example: It's easy to make a case for David Robinson for the 12 spot when everyone's just voting for their player, but it's harder to make that case when KG, Moses, Karl, Dirk, and Dr J are all nominated, and you're forced to consider their cases before making an ultimate decision.

andrewww · Post #318 » by **andrewww** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:00 pm

Tally update:

Shaq (24)
Colts18
RSCD3_
HeartBreakKid
Therealbig3
Penbeast0
MacGill
Narigo
Batmana
Ronnymac2
DQuinn1575
Rayban-Sematra
Rich316
Mutnt
Notanoob (late vote)
DannyNoonan1221 (late vote)
*Magicmerl
*SactoKingsFan
*Trex_8063
*Fpliii
*Doctor MJ
*Chuck Texas
*Quotatious
*Rico381
*PCProductions

Magic (11)
Andrewww
Basketballefan
Baller2014
TrueLAfan
JordansBulls
GC Pantalones
Clyde Frazier
Ardee
Dhodgkins (late vote)
*Gregoire
*An Unbiased Fan

lorak · Post #319 » by **lorak** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:08 pm

ardee wrote:I still want to engage the KG supporters on why they think KG is such a tier above Dirk and deserves to be discussed in the top 5 while Dirk doesn't.

Let me show you some numbers.

1 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '04: 51.3% and 100 ORtg
Dirk '06: 59.6% and 124 ORtg/Dirk '11: 60.9% and 115 ORtg

3 year peak Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '02-'04: 51.9% TS and 102 ORtg
Dirk '09-'11: 62.3% TS and 120 ORtg

Prime Playoff TS% and ORtg

KG '00-'08 (really '00-'04 and '08, he missed 3): 52.5% TS and 107 ORtg
Dirk '06-'11: 60.2% TS and 121 ORtg

So here's my case: Dirk is basically providing you more volume (6 more ppg/100 poss over their primes), on VASTLY superior efficiency. I mean look at the numbers, the gap is gigantic. Dirk has an edge of 14 ORtg points over their primes, and 8 TS% on better volume.

With Dirk's offensive impact THIS MUCH MORE than KG's, the only way to justify KG being SO MUCH BETTER than Dirk is that his defense is better by a greater amount. And despite the great posts by drza, KG being defensively better than Dirk by that amount would make Dirk look like Amare Stoudemire on defense: which he's not.

First of all you didn't show Dirk's offense was "that much more". Unless you think comparison of TS% and individual ortg is end of the story...

Second, it's possible that Dirk was ok on defense and great on offense, but KG still was better overall player, because his offense was better than Nowitzki's defense, and KG's defense was better than Dirk's offense - and that's actually how it was in reality, but to see that you have to look deeper than only on TS% and ortg. Especially when one player in comparison is a scorer and value of the other one comes mainly from things DIFFERENT than scoring. So unfortunately it seems that you arbitrary chose criteria, which would make Dirk looks better and KG worse, but will not show whole picture of their value.

shutupandjam · Post #320 » by **shutupandjam** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 4:28 pm

For those talking about what Magic's career would have been if he hadn't been forced into retirement, that's simply outside the scope of this project imo. If we start doing this kind of thing then I see no reason why LeBron shouldn't be number 1, Durant shouldn't be top 15, and Anthony Davis shouldn't be discussed soon. This is about how good a player was in his career up to this point, not what he would have or could have done if he had more seasons.