'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[PaulieWal]

Also, using your criteria you shouldn't even have Curry on your ballot much less #1, which to me is absurd.

That's your prerogative if you think that's absurd. If some other star has a great run while leading his team to a deep playoff run I don't see why that player shouldn't be #1 on my list.

[Texas Chuck]

Also, using your criteria you shouldn't even have Curry on your ballot much less #1, which to me is absurd.

That's your prerogative if you think that's absurd. If some other star has a great run while leading his team to a deep playoff run I don't see why that player shouldn't be #1 on my list.

yeah this just goes back to the old adage about how we each have to frame our own criteria. Sideshow Bob believes if a player misses the playoffs their value for even an MVP-caliber RS is just above zero(it was zero until he conceded they should get some value for helping with playoff seeding). I disagree with that approach, but I understand it and find it totally valid.

So to each their own in this regard. POY /= "best basketball player" -- unless one wants it to of course.

[ceiling raiser]

Holding injuries against a player doesn't mean you are basing your rankings on who's the "hottest". If you miss the playoffs with an injury IMO you are pretty much disqualified. Sure in a vacuum we can say he was the best player in the league then but if you are not on the floor in the PS that's a significant strike against a player in my eyes.

I'm in the same bucket. I can't consider 92 Robinson, 00 Duncan, 09 Garnett, 13 Kobe for POY ballots because of lack of playoff availability.

Curry is going to be a very tough decision, since I had his RS as perhaps the GOAT peak. Holding him out for the ankle/foot thing in game 1 I could've written off as precautionary, but a grade 1 MCL sprain is holding him out for 1-2 weeks. Now maybe Curry playing at this level precludes facing anybody but 8 seed competition in the first round, but I think asking your team to win a second round series is a tall order.

I *do* think GS without Curry will beat the Blazers or depleted Clippers, even if CP3 is back for the second half of the series. But if not for ridiculous timing with CP3's injury, the prospects of starting down 2-1 or even 3-0 before Curry's return in a game 4 would have been brutal.

[HeartBreakKid]

Also, using your criteria you shouldn't even have Curry on your ballot much less #1, which to me is absurd.

That's your prerogative if you think that's absurd. If some other star has a great run while leading his team to a deep playoff run I don't see why that player shouldn't be #1 on my list.

I'm not sure how you can use that phrase against me, when your first 3 post are literally you challenging my opinion and criteria, and you're essentially holding me up to your standards.

You're the one who challenged me not vice versa, you're free to not have Stephen Curry in your top 5 voting.

[Clyde Frazier]

Obviously the spurs played a quasi D league team in the first round, but at least worth mentioning kawhi’s production just as a spectacle

21.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 2.8 SPG, 2.8 BPG, 68.3% TS, 135 ORTG, .438 WS/48

[PaulieWal]

Also, using your criteria you shouldn't even have Curry on your ballot much less #1, which to me is absurd.

That's your prerogative if you think that's absurd. If some other star has a great run while leading his team to a deep playoff run I don't see why that player shouldn't be #1 on my list.

yeah this just goes back to the old adage about how we each have to frame our own criteria. Sideshow Bob believes if a player misses the playoffs their value for even an MVP-caliber RS is just above zero(it was zero until he conceded they should get some value for helping with playoff seeding). I disagree with that approach, but I understand it and find it totally valid.

So to each their own in this regard. POY /= "best basketball player" -- unless one wants it to of course.

And I'd add that all of this is very fluid right now. I am just thinking out loud here and trying to stir the pot a bit if I am being honest.

There are so many variations that we are dealing with here:

Curry could come back 100% and lead his team to a title
Curry could miss the entire PS and Warriors lose to the Spurs
Curry could come back 70% and lose to the Spurs
LeBron/KD/Kawhi/RW could have an all-time playoff run while making a deep run while Curry plays at 75% and still wins the title

All of those would make me change the order of my ranking.

BTW, I kinda agree with you. I am not saying Curry is completely going to be disqualified from my POY ballot if he were to miss the entire PS. I do think a player deserves tremendous credit for leading his team to the playoffs even if he hypothetically misses the entire PS due to an injury.

[PaulieWal]

Also, using your criteria you shouldn't even have Curry on your ballot much less #1, which to me is absurd.

That's your prerogative if you think that's absurd. If some other star has a great run while leading his team to a deep playoff run I don't see why that player shouldn't be #1 on my list.

I'm not sure how you can use that phrase against me, when your first 3 post are literally you challenging my opinion and criteria, and you're essentially holding me up to your standards.

You're the one who challenged me not vice versa, you're free to not have Stephen Curry in your top 5 voting.

It wasn't a "challenge". Just trying to have a discussion on what people think.

I quoted you because you said there's no way you wouldn't have Curry #1 on your ballot so I wanted to know why.

Maybe you missed it but I also said in one of my replies to you above that "I am not trying to change your mind".

I am not trying to change your mind but we all have different things we value and being available to play in the PS is a big one for me.

[Texas Chuck]

Obviously the spurs played a quasi D league team in the first round, but at least worth mentioning kawhi’s production just as a spectacle

21.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 2.8 SPG, 2.8 BPG, 68.3% TS, 135 ORTG, .438 WS/48

5.6 combined blocks and steals is absolutely absurd. Especially since this is done in 31 mpg... Needs to stop slacking on the glass tho.

Shooting splits of 53/61/94

[MisterHibachi]

Dealing with Curry's absence and its effect on the POY ballot really depends on criteria. But whatever criteria you use, if he comes back and the Warriors go to the finals, win or lose there, he should be first on every ballot. If you go by HBK's criteria, then he's number one regardless if he comes back at all or no.

If you use SSB's criteria: as I follow it, it goes such as: he doesn't penalize too much for missing RS games because a real contender should have enough support to make the playoffs without its star. The same logic should apply to Curry: if the Warriors are good enough to make the WCF without him, then his championship-added value shouldn't really change much if he pushes them to the title, no? Does it matter if the team needs the star to perform starting round 1 or round 3?

Either way, Curry should end up #1 if he comes back and the Warriors make the finals, regardless of how he plays. Both those methods are consistent and I want to use one or the other, but I'm still not comfortable with putting a player who misses a majority, or half, the post season number 1. Hmm.

[PaulieWal]

Dealing with Curry's absence and its effect on the POY ballot really depends on criteria. But whatever criteria you use, if he comes back and the Warriors go to the finals, win or lose there, he should be first on every ballot. If you go by HBK's criteria, then he's number one regardless if he comes back at all or no.

If you use SSB's criteria: as I follow it, it goes such as: he doesn't penalize too much for missing RS games because a real contender should have enough support to make the playoffs without its star. The same logic should apply to Curry: if the Warriors are good enough to make the WCF without him, then his championship-added value shouldn't really change much if he pushes them to the title, no? Does it matter if the team needs the star to perform starting round 1 or round 3?

Either way, Curry should end up #1 if he comes back and the Warriors make the finals, regardless of how he plays. Both those methods are consistent and I want to use one or the other, but I'm still not comfortable with putting a player who misses a majority, or half, the post season number 1. Hmm.

What if Warriors make the Finals/win the title with Curry only 75% healthy and clearly not at the level of his RS self? Do you still put Curry #1 in that scenario? If that were to happen then I would be far more open to Green being a top 5 guy than Curry being #1.

[MisterHibachi]

Dealing with Curry's absence and its effect on the POY ballot really depends on criteria. But whatever criteria you use, if he comes back and the Warriors go to the finals, win or lose there, he should be first on every ballot. If you go by HBK's criteria, then he's number one regardless if he comes back at all or no.

If you use SSB's criteria: as I follow it, it goes such as: he doesn't penalize too much for missing RS games because a real contender should have enough support to make the playoffs without its star. The same logic should apply to Curry: if the Warriors are good enough to make the WCF without him, then his championship-added value shouldn't really change much if he pushes them to the title, no? Does it matter if the team needs the star to perform starting round 1 or round 3?

Either way, Curry should end up #1 if he comes back and the Warriors make the finals, regardless of how he plays. Both those methods are consistent and I want to use one or the other, but I'm still not comfortable with putting a player who misses a majority, or half, the post season number 1. Hmm.

What if Warriors make the Finals/win the title with Curry only 75% healthy and clearly not at the level of his RS self? Do you still put Curry #1 in that scenario? If that were to happen then I would be far more open to Green being a top 5 guy than Curry being #1.

I think it would have to depend if his injury hurts their championship chances. If so, then he deserves to be knocked down. So, if the Warriors lose in the second round with him not playing at all, he probably won't make my ballot at all because his injury would clearly be the reason they didn't win the title/make the finals. If he does come back, and they make the finals but lose, I think it would be mostly a subjective eye test to see if his injury/rust is why their opponent was able to beat them. If so, then he'll make my ballot, but not number 1. Idk, I'm still thinking this through. I find it really hard to leave him off my ballot if he misses the PS, but also really hard to put him number 1 if he misses half. I probably will put him number 1, or tie with Draymond, if they win the title with him rusty/hobbled.

These are the possibilities as I see them:

1. Warriors win the title

a. Curry misses the whole PS
b. Curry misses the second round, but plays 100% rest of the way
c. Curry misses the second round, but plays rusty (75%?) rest of the way

2. Warriors lose in the second round

a. Curry misses the whole PS
b. Curry misses half the second round, but is 100% the rest of the series
c. Curry misses half the second round, but plays rusty rest of the series

3. Warriors lose in WCF

a. Curry misses the whole PS
b. Curry misses half or whole second round, but is 100% in the WCF
c. Curry misses half or whole second round, but plays rusty in the WCF

In 1a, 2a, 3a, he probably won't make my ballot.
1b: he's number 1 probably.
1c: not sure.
2b, 3b: probably number 1, because if they lose with him 100%, then the Spurs were just the better team and he doesn't get penalized for losing to a better team. This would obviously be very subjective (how do I determine he's playing 100% healthy?).
2c, 3c: he makes the ballot, but drops from number 1 because he hurt his team's chances at the title.

[PaulieWal]

Dealing with Curry's absence and its effect on the POY ballot really depends on criteria. But whatever criteria you use, if he comes back and the Warriors go to the finals, win or lose there, he should be first on every ballot. If you go by HBK's criteria, then he's number one regardless if he comes back at all or no.

If you use SSB's criteria: as I follow it, it goes such as: he doesn't penalize too much for missing RS games because a real contender should have enough support to make the playoffs without its star. The same logic should apply to Curry: if the Warriors are good enough to make the WCF without him, then his championship-added value shouldn't really change much if he pushes them to the title, no? Does it matter if the team needs the star to perform starting round 1 or round 3?

Either way, Curry should end up #1 if he comes back and the Warriors make the finals, regardless of how he plays. Both those methods are consistent and I want to use one or the other, but I'm still not comfortable with putting a player who misses a majority, or half, the post season number 1. Hmm.

What if Warriors make the Finals/win the title with Curry only 75% healthy and clearly not at the level of his RS self? Do you still put Curry #1 in that scenario? If that were to happen then I would be far more open to Green being a top 5 guy than Curry being #1.

I think it would have to depend if his injury hurts their championship chances. If so, then he deserves to be knocked down. So, if the Warriors lose in the second round with him not playing at all, he probably won't make my ballot at all because his injury would clearly be the reason they didn't win the title/make the finals. If he does come back, and they make the finals but lose, I think it would be mostly a subjective eye test to see if his injury/rust is why their opponent was able to beat them. If so, then he'll make my ballot, but not number 1. Idk, I'm still thinking this through. I find it really hard to leave him off my ballot if he misses the PS, but also really hard to put him number 1 if he misses half. I probably will put him number 1, or tie with Draymond, if they win the title with him rusty/hobbled.

These are the possibilities as I see them:

1. Warriors win the title

a. Curry misses the whole PS
b. Curry misses the second round, but plays 100% rest of the way
c. Curry misses the second round, but plays rusty (75%?) rest of the way

2. Warriors lose in the second round

a. Curry misses the whole PS
b. Curry misses half the second round, but is 100% the rest of the series
c. Curry misses half the second round, but plays rusty rest of the series

3. Warriors lose in WCF

a. Curry misses the whole PS
b. Curry misses half or whole second round, but is 100% in the WCF
c. Curry misses half or whole second round, but plays rusty in the WCF

In 1a, 2a, 3a, he probably won't make my ballot.
1b: he's number 1 probably.
1c: not sure.
2b, 3b: probably number 1, because if they lose with him 100%, then the Spurs were just the better team and he doesn't get penalized for losing to a better team. This would obviously be very subjective (how do I determine he's playing 100% healthy?).
2c, 3c: he makes the ballot, but drops from number 1 because he hurt his team's chances at the title.

Yeah, that's pretty much how I see it and as I said in my reply to Doc, I am open to him being #1 if he dominates the Spurs/Cavs or if he plays well but the Warriors lose.

The biggest thing with him will be seeing what drop-off will there be from his RS if at all. I do hope he comes back as soon as possible at 100% health but I just don't think he will. We have seen enough of these knee, ankle injuries in the PS and they never heal that quickly.

[RSCD3_]

1. (T) Stephen Curry/Draymond Green

I'm considering this too, especially with Curry missing a good deal of time. Three questions for you:

1) As of today, where do you have Green for 14-15?

2) How do you rate about 10-13 KG and 08-11 Odom for those seasons (doesn't have to be precise, just ballpark thoughts)? Not perfect analogs to Green, but I think they're somewhat relevant.

3) With regards to Leonard (who I also had top 3 going into the playoffs, with Curry and possibly Green being the other two), I think this is a tough situation. With Curry missing a lot of time in the postseason. He could very well be the top perimeter player on POY ballots, but he's not a guy who's an elite playmaker. Is this an issue for you? Or do you think Leonard's playmaking is underrated?

Interesting, what do you consider elite playmaking? Is there a positional benefit analysis like how Westbrook's rebounding means more than a similar production level from a SF such as say LeBron this year. Or LeBron having a similar effect compared to Chris Paul

Curry's also had some 8 apg seasons and while that in and of itself doesn't equal playmaking I think curry has been wise to seek scoring opportunities for himself more this year.

[ceiling raiser]

Interesting, what do you consider elite playmaking? Is there a positional benefit analysis like how Westbrook's rebounding means more than a similar production level from a SF such as say LeBron this year. Or LeBron having a similar effect compared to Chris Paul

Honestly I'm not sure, right now it's a fuzzy term. I guess if I had to quantify it, it would be something like opportunities created (ElGee's term) by playmaking usage (a NylonCalculus stat)? Though volume is important too. Maybe opportunities created per unit time of possession, and we could evaluate this on the basis of volume (by playmaking usage)? I'm not sure what a good analog to opportunities created is, though.

Perhaps something like WOWY effect on team ORtg/eFG%/TS% as lead playmaker?

[RSCD3_]

Also my curry watch thing

I really only care about how he does in the WCF and finals, but if they lose in the second, his absence knocks him down off the list, the same for not coming back at all no matter the results.

If he comes back in the spurs series and they lose im gonna be a bit result based since we can't know how healthy he is if rust affected him and if he plays well that's only one series so probably either 3-5 very slight chance of 2, if two of the three drop depending on the play of Kawhi/LeBron/GOAT but not #1. If he gets to the finals and doesn't win, then I'll probably have LeBron over him unless curry goes a wealthy man's 1968 jerry west, if he really plays bad then I might drop him to 3-5. If he wins it all only way I don't have him number 1 is if he struggles and LeBron puts up god tier numbers and that would probably result in a Cleveland win.

[JordansBulls]

I think it would have to depend if his injury hurts their championship chances. If so, then he deserves to be knocked down. So, if the Warriors lose in the second round with him not playing at all, he probably won't make my ballot at all because his injury would clearly be the reason they didn't win the title/make the finals.

This is silly, shouldn't that be the reason he is there since they only lost because he wasn't around? I mean we are talking about a guy who possibly could be unanimous MVP. Hell even if he plays 8-10 games he would have a case to be #1. I mean it would be like Dirk in 2007 playing 6 games in the playoffs losing in round 1. What would be different in this case?

Dirk didn't win POY that year he was 3rd due to his bad playoffs viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1007335&start=200#start_here but the two guys who finished ahead of him were guys who were virtually as good on the season and better in the playoffs.

[SideshowBob]

Spoiler:

I've had a hard time judging Curry because he's basically sui generis. I'm a little more comfortable now, but it's still a tricky thing for me to gauge and I'm waiting for the postseason (and perhaps next season) to really refine my opinion.

I'll quantify where I am to help make it clearer: Last year I thought he was around a +5.5 offensive player, obviously super portable. This would place him squarely in my top-10 offensive peaks of all-time. I could see an argument for slightly lower or slightly higher. This year, his increase in scoring efficiency alone is worth about +2 points mathematically. I think he's also warping the floor slightly more than last year because team are so hyper-sensitive to him at this point and he's better than ever at deep shooting (drawing more attention) and penetrating and finishing with those little floaters. I think he's at his peak in passing too. It's a very strong argument for GOAT offensive season, and depending on how far one takes it, unless you consider him a horrible defender (hard to see) that leaves you with a GOAT overall season.

However, the football fan in me is acting up. In the NFL, there are often briefly successful new tactics that are then dampened as teams develop a counter-strategy. Curry has tailed off in efficiency in the second half of the season. Variance? Fatigue? Or defenses trying to adapt a new strategy against him? (Is the book still out on this until next year even?) This isn't like the balancing act a defense faces against peak Shaq or Jordan -- their buckets are worth 2 points only. Curry's efficiency on 3-points shots is so extreme that it seems better for defenses to warp the floor (classically a defensive no-no) to get him off of these shots that are worth like 1.5 points (or more) per attempt. (The equivalent of Jordan or Shaq shooting 75%!)

As of now, there's still some malleability in how I judge his last 2 seasons as I'm synthesizing all this stuff.

What are your thoughts on the defense of Kawhi & Green and the DPOY race the past two seasons? Is Kawhi making a case for GOAT defensive-wing peak over Pippen/Lebron for you?

[Dr Spaceman]

1. (T) Stephen Curry/Draymond Green

I'm considering this too, especially with Curry missing a good deal of time. Three questions for you:

1) As of today, where do you have Green for 14-15?

Good Question. I suppose he's due for a reevaluation. I didn't have him in my top 5, but he was knocking on the door and I think ultimately he was the first one off my ballot i.e. 6th.

Thing is I'm not sure if the things I've learned this year would make me think higher of him last year. He's an entirely different player this year in terms of role. I actually think the argument could be made that (counterintuitively) Draymond's role has grown this season while Curry's has narrowed. GSW is now deploying Draymond as the lead ball handler from the top of the key; their offense pretty much consists of either a high pick and roll between Curry/Dray, or Curry dumps it off to Dray and pin down/elevator/hammer is run for Curry and Klay with Draymond scoping those guys out. I wouldn't hesitate to call Draymond the Warriors' lead ball handler this year, and he's frankly taken the big majority of Steph's playmaking duties from him. Curry's mandate for this season has basically been: hunt the best shots you can find, with the requisite uptick in efficiency. Hell Draymond is even the guy who brings the ball up after a rebound on (I'd estimate) 40% of possessions.

Last year Bogut was the guy doing a lot of the top of the key work, and they relied on Adnrew's and Steph's playmaking a lot more. Curry worked with a diversity of on-ball screeners last year, this year the pick and roll is all Draymond. In terms of what Draymond brought offensively last year, I'd narrow it down to mostly screening, ball moving, and spacing the floor, where this year he's legitimately blossomed into one of the best point men in the league, and certainly among big men.

2) How do you rate about 10-13 KG and 08-11 Odom for those seasons (doesn't have to be precise, just ballpark thoughts)? Not perfect analogs to Green, but I think they're somewhat relevant.

I'm really high on KG in general. I think he's a top 5 player in 2012, top 10 in 2011, and probably top 10ish in 2010 where the injury was still noticeably bothering him. 2013 he was old and couldn't play many minutes so I'd have him lower. He was the best player in 2008 IMO.

Odom I'm not sure. He could certainly be a top 15 guy in in 08-10. I remember the Odom/Gasol at 4/5 lineups being scary dominant. I remember him mostly as a transition ball handler, not so much half court, but I haven't watched him in a long while so it's worth another look.

3) With regards to Leonard (who I also had top 3 going into the playoffs, with Curry and possibly Green being the other two), I think this is a tough situation. With Curry missing a lot of time in the postseason. He could very well be the top perimeter player on POY ballots, but he's not a guy who's an elite playmaker. Is this an issue for you? Or do you think Leonard's playmaking is underrated?

Well I wouldn't put Leonard in my top 10 offensive players I don't think. It's not so much the lack of playmaking per se, as that implies certain things, but I don't see him as a guy who's reliably going to break down his primary defender off the dribble without some kind of advantage or momentum. The passing itself is fine, and he's really not supposed to be playing that role anyway, but he lacks a certain dynamism and off the dribble bounce that the best offensive players bring to the table.

That said, I think we can say fairly confidently he's an outlier-good shooter now, and he works screens like prime Reggie Miller. It's been one of the craziest developments I've tracked from him. He also loves the pull-up three in transition, and he's experimented a bit with that shot over the top of a pick and roll. He can overpower any perimeter player in the post, and his fadeaway is a legit weapon now. Midrange game is pretty elite too. He still doesn't run the pick and roll much, and after Aldridge blossomed the late game Isos have mostly fallen by the wayside (that was mostly experimentation by Pop early; the Spurs want to win a title this year and they aren't doing that on the back of Kawhi isos, but it's something we'll see more of down the road). But he's a fantastic possession sponge with ridiculous efficiency and ball protection (basically Dirk without the spacing/warping aspect) and as a guy who finishes plays there's really none better.

EDIT: Actually thinking on it now I probably would have Kawhi in my top 10 offensive players. Not in the top 5, but the bottom half of the top 10 sure.

[PearGreatness]

Curry, Lebron, Draymond, and Kawhi are my top 4 as of now, with not much separating any of them, though Curry could fall very far down depending on his injury situation.

With respect to Curry's historical ranking, I look at things a bit differently, though I would say my criteria is most similar to SideshowBob's. One difference I see between my reasoning and some of the others that have posted so far is, I'm considering not just his championship odds on his current team, but also his championship odds in a random situation. His current team's chances of losing in the first round may only be slightly increased by him not playing, but I don't think that holds true in a random situation.

A few questions that I feel I should try to answer before passing judgment (lets say Curry is a +8 player):

What are the odds of a +8 player ending up on a #1 seed, #2 seed, #3 seed, ect.
Using those odds to now weight the next set of probabilities, what are the odds that #1 seed loses in the first round when they lose a +8 player? #2 seed? #3 seed? ect.

Should he miss the second round, the same questions apply, but the penalties are steeper. In any case, Curry's championships odds have decreased, the question for me is how much.

[SideshowBob]

Curry, Lebron, Draymond, and Kawhi are my top 4 as of now, with not much separating any of them, though Curry could fall very far down depending on his injury situation.

With respect to Curry's historical ranking, I look at things a bit differently, though I would say my criteria is most similar to SideshowBob's. One difference I see between my reasoning and some of the others that have posted so far is, I'm considering not just his championship odds on his current team, but also his championship odds in a random situation. His current team's chances of losing in the first round may only be slightly increased by him not playing, but I don't think that holds true in a random situation.

A few questions that I feel I should try to answer before passing judgment (lets say Curry is a +8 player):

What are the odds of a +8 player ending up on a #1 seed, #2 seed, #3 seed, ect.
Using those odds to now weight the next set of probabilities, what are the odds that #1 seed loses in the first round when they lose a +8 player? #2 seed? #3 seed? ect.

Should he miss the second round, the same questions apply, but the penalties are steeper. In any case, Curry's championships odds have decreased, the question for me is how much.

In a random situation you'd have to assume missed time is the equivalent of a replacement level player, no? So going with your +8, Steph misses the 1st round but plays 2-4, so weight round 1 as a replacement PG and 2-4 as +8.

So say replacement level is -2.0. Counting Steph as top level portable, +8 player (that would be GOAT level for me):

Round 1: 0.030 Exp. Titles X 1/4
Round 2: 0.385 Exp. Titles X 1/4
Round 3: 0.385 Exp. Titles X 1/4
Round 4: 0.385 Exp. Titles X 1/4

Total: .296 Exp. Titles, which is about the equivalent of a +7-+7.25 level player. So if you hold Steph as a +8 player and grade him in the above manner, you would have to consider Green/James/Leonard/Durant/Westbrook at around +7-7.25 to consider them as fighting for the top spot.

Obviously we have nothing definitive on how many games he'll miss yet, plus you may hold Curry in higher/lower regard. And obviously everyone will have their own criteria with how they want to judge this situation. But just a thought.