2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

[jalengreen]

For Daryl Morey to be as 'famous' as he is as a GM without winning anything is kinda concerning. I don't think you want your GM being a 'household name' to basketball fans unless they've done something to earn Mythical status

Is Morey really the smartest GM? Or just the one that's best at self-promotion? Or just the one that best embodied the league-wide narratives about analytics in the last decade?

To be fair, he was the second longest tenured GM in the league at the time of his departure (IIRC), led the Rockets to the second most wins in the league during his tenure, was one of the most important figures in basketball's analytics revolution, and built the roster that offered the greatest challenge to the healthy KD Warriors. Although it is true that other things (such as Hong Kong) certainly made him even more well known for non basketball reasons.

[parsnips33]

For Daryl Morey to be as 'famous' as he is as a GM without winning anything is kinda concerning. I don't think you want your GM being a 'household name' to basketball fans unless they've done something to earn Mythical status

Is Morey really the smartest GM? Or just the one that's best at self-promotion? Or just the one that best embodied the league-wide narratives about analytics in the last decade?

To be fair, he was the second longest tenured GM in the league at the time of his departure (IIRC), led the Rockets to the second most wins in the league during his tenure, was one of the most important figures in basketball's analytics revolution, and built the roster that offered the greatest challenge to the healthy KD Warriors. Although it is true that other things (such as Hong Kong) certainly made him even more well known for non basketball reasons.

Just to be clear, I do think he's good at what he does. The year he brought in Eric Gordon/Ryan Anderson, the PJ Tucker revival, betting on the CP/Harden pairing.

Just saying that, all else being equal, I'd rather my GM be basically anonymous than the toast of the NBA media

[Doctor MJ]

For Daryl Morey to be as 'famous' as he is as a GM without winning anything is kinda concerning. I don't think you want your GM being a 'household name' to basketball fans unless they've done something to earn Mythical status

Is Morey really the smartest GM? Or just the one that's best at self-promotion? Or just the one that best embodied the league-wide narratives about analytics in the last decade?

Oh, I think the work he did in Houston was outstanding. He took a team that built around a core that basically couldn't win a playoff series and managed to re-build them in a way where the team never tanked and yet would become champion level. For me Morey was a reasonable candidate for GM of the Decade in the 2010s up there with Pat Riley and Masai Ujiri.

And of course, I say all of that while saying that I think there's a very good chance that his time in Philly will end up a failure, and that he will deserve a significant part of the blame.

[therealbig3]

Morey is like Billy Beane. Pioneered the push for analytics and was able to build a contender despite having less talent than the opposition, everyone else caught on and started using his methods (and winning with it), and ultimately, he never actually won.

I think he's an excellent GM tbh, any team would be lucky to have him. If it wasn't for a ridiculously stacked GS team, a CP3 injury, AND historically bad shooting in the deciding game 7, the 2018 Rockets would have won the title. They needed several bad breaks to lose that year, and as it stands, they're definitely one of the contenders for "best team to not win a title".

Which is crazy when you compare their roster to GS's. Who had the same core that went 16-1 and cruised to the title the year before.

[Colbinii]

Population of Poland and Germany?

Poland is around 38 Million, Germany 83 Million.

[HeartBreakKid]

How does coaching eligibility work in the hall of fame?

[Doctor MJ]

Morey is like Billy Beane. Pioneered the push for analytics and was able to build a contender despite having less talent than the opposition, everyone else caught on and started using his methods (and winning with it), and ultimately, he never actually won.

I think he's an excellent GM tbh, any team would be lucky to have him. If it wasn't for a ridiculously stacked GS team, a CP3 injury, AND historically bad shooting in the deciding game 7, the 2018 Rockets would have won the title. They needed several bad breaks to lose that year, and as it stands, they're definitely one of the contenders for "best team to not win a title".

Which is crazy when you compare their roster to GS's. Who had the same core that went 16-1 and cruised to the title the year before.

I think what seeing a guy struggle after seeing a guy succeed tells us is that smart people also make mistakes, and so it's really not that damning...but it can be telling.

With Morey, the big thing is likely to be that he bet on the same horse one too many times. It's obviously not a coincidence that Morey took out an ad praising Harden after he left Houston and then fixated on bringing him over to the 76ers. He saw he had an in there, he saw correctly that that would be an improvement over Simmons, and he went for it. It's possible this was actually the best realistic move for the short term, but it wasn't enough in the short term, and seemed destined to crash hard in the long term.

[Dr Positivity]

Morey's philosophy has been to have multiple stars, while this is generally a good idea and led him to get the closest he has in 2018, in other cases maybe going after slightly older Westbrook, Harden and Dwight was forcing it, and he could have been more open to the idea of a 2011 Mavericks/2019 Raptors type of build if that was the situation that presented itself. If he trades Harden he is facing that same scenario again where he has to choose whether to try for a depth build or goes out of his way to get a 2nd banana even if it's a flawed one.

[rk2023]

For Daryl Morey to be as 'famous' as he is as a GM without winning anything is kinda concerning. I don't think you want your GM being a 'household name' to basketball fans unless they've done something to earn Mythical status

Is Morey really the smartest GM? Or just the one that's best at self-promotion? Or just the one that best embodied the league-wide narratives about analytics in the last decade?

I think he's a good GM, but like Masai (for example) - his best days quarterbacking the construction of a team are well behind him.

Sense of "smarts" is very hard to judge from an outsider's perspective. From what we all know and could deduce, the NBA is a large-scale entity where analytics / the role of analytics in the on-court product has skyrocketed and has been seen as an innovative factor across the league. Morey, of course, is well connected and has networked his way a fair share in the sports analytics circles - along with having Northwestern and MIT Sloan degrees to his name. So he could certainly come off as a very intelligent individual (and does try hard to put up that front imo). That's all I could say in full confidence.

[rk2023]

Morey is like Billy Beane. Pioneered the push for analytics and was able to build a contender despite having less talent than the opposition, everyone else caught on and started using his methods (and winning with it), and ultimately, he never actually won.

I think he's an excellent GM tbh, any team would be lucky to have him. If it wasn't for a ridiculously stacked GS team, a CP3 injury, AND historically bad shooting in the deciding game 7, the 2018 Rockets would have won the title. They needed several bad breaks to lose that year, and as it stands, they're definitely one of the contenders for "best team to not win a title".

Which is crazy when you compare their roster to GS's. Who had the same core that went 16-1 and cruised to the title the year before.

Business strategy is my profession, and I think some of the more prominent, intuitive frameworks are applicable in this context. The S curve, Doc's favorite here, I think is one - where it could be possible that Morey represents more of the "movement" across the S in an x-axis way. However, other teams/GMs whom (as you said) used his methodology could represent more of the y-axis movement here. It would seem that (per another framework) a second mover advantage could be more valuable than a first mover one as it pertains to sports in more of an information focused age.

[ronnymac2]

We just had an outstanding 2023 season (maybe the most entertaining playoffs of the past seven years). Thus far, the offseason has been a bit of a bore, so I am enjoying the PR war going on currently between the Philadelphia front office and James Harden.

For the record, I think Morey has done a lot to hurt the NBA in multiple ways. One way is that his way of building teams has led to relative - though not ultimate - success, which breeds copycats. Those copycat style teams usually have less success than his teams do, and they are incredibly boring to watch, especially if matched up against one another.

Another way is how it has had a terrible effect on players 41-360 in the NBA. The upper-echelon players aren't affected and the bench vets who are high-character guys aren't affected, but that close-to-league-average guy who doesn't have any real level of primacy on his team has essentially had his wings clipped because the style of player "analytics" dictates they must be. These players are so much better than the league average player of previous eras from a pure talent and skill and brain processing perspective, yet it's all for naught as they are used as essentially interchangeable mediocrities.

You don't get individual style in your non-stars as much as you used to, and that sucks as a fan, but it DEFINITELY sucks for those players. Look at the new CBA. It's very likely those guys' earnings potential will decrease relative to what it should be given the growth of the league, TV contracts, etc. In my opinion, it's because those guys don't get to have a unique game and get notoriety that way. They are just part of a machine now. And that dork helped mold that machine.

I don't know who's right or wrong in this saga, but I do hope Morey loses the PR battle. He has earned the L in my opinion.

[Fadeaway_J]

11 Rarity Score on Immaculate Grid. My useless knowledge of NBA trivia finally pays off.

[tsherkin]

For the record, I think Morey has done a lot to hurt the NBA in multiple ways. One way is that his way of building teams has led to relative - though not ultimate - success, which breeds copycats. Those copycat style teams usually have less success than his teams do, and they are incredibly boring to watch, especially if matched up against one another.

That happens no matter what, it isn't Morey's fault. Crap teams try and fail to imitate what has worked without the talent that enabled the strategy to work, lol. And then of course, people fail to understand what it was about the strategy which was working beyond the superficial.

These players are so much better than the league average player of previous eras from a pure talent and skill and brain processing perspective, yet it's all for naught as they are used as essentially interchangeable mediocrities.

They are net-neutral, though. They don't really matter to winning, so why would they be a concern? Using non-optimal personnel can be a nice story here and there, but if they aren't actually valuable, then what's the point in teams emphasizing them with better options available?

[Texas Chuck]

Sorry but your "well-rounded" SG from the 80's simply isn't as conducive to winning as your boring 3&D wing. And its worth noting that those players are often far more capable of more when needed. Reggie Bullock Jr for instance is about as classic a 3&D guy in the league. Never does anything else on offense. But 2 seasons ago Dallas had all their offensive players hurt for like 2 weeks and so he got elevated up the pecking order and he averaged like 20 ppg and did so in a variety of ways I was surprised to see out him. Also did some creation for others in that span.

But for the team to win games the best he could do was space for Luka and Brunson and take the toughest guard assignment. So he did.

That's not bad for Reggie. And its great for the team. Hating that modern basketball has gotten smarter and thus more specialized is understandable from an entertainment perspective I suppose, but tsherkin is right. This was going to happen with or wihtout Morey.

[Cavsfansince84]

Business strategy is my profession, and I think some of the more prominent, intuitive frameworks are applicable in this context. The S curve, Doc's favorite here, I think is one - where it could be possible that Morey represents more of the "movement" across the S in an x-axis way. However, other teams/GMs whom (as you said) used his methodology could represent more of the y-axis movement here. It would seem that (per another framework) a second mover advantage could be more valuable than a first mover one as it pertains to sports in more of an information focused age.

It's fairly common for that to happen in sports imo. Whether it comes from coaching or gm ways of thinking, often the guy who first starts doing something isn't the one who perfects it to where a team wins titles using it. It's usually the guy in the right place with the right players who does it and gets credit even though they weren't the first to do it. Other times like with Paul Brown doing something in a certain way is so far ahead of everyone else that it can't help but create great results. Morey wasn't far enough ahead of everyone else to get those results outside of 2018 but he helped to move things forward.

[Doctor MJ]

Business strategy is my profession, and I think some of the more prominent, intuitive frameworks are applicable in this context. The S curve, Doc's favorite here, I think is one - where it could be possible that Morey represents more of the "movement" across the S in an x-axis way. However, other teams/GMs whom (as you said) used his methodology could represent more of the y-axis movement here. It would seem that (per another framework) a second mover advantage could be more valuable than a first mover one as it pertains to sports in more of an information focused age.

It's fairly common for that to happen in sports imo. Whether it comes from coaching or gm ways of thinking, often the guy who first starts doing something isn't the one who perfects it to where a team wins titles using it. It's usually the guy in the right place with the right players who does it and gets credit even though they weren't the first to do it. Other times like with Paul Brown doing something in a certain way is so far ahead of everyone else that it can't help but create great results. Morey wasn't far enough ahead of everyone else to get those results outside of 2018 but he helped to move things forward.

Ooh, love the Paul Brown reference. Shout out Otto Graham!

I'd agree with both of you that Morey's first mover analytic advantage has dissipated to some degree.

However, I don't think the reason why his Harden move in Philly is blowing up in his face is due to other team's being smarter than they were in the past. Morey played with fire, and it looks like he's going to get burnt. It's been happening forever, analytics or no analytics.

Where I'm sympathetic here not just to Morey but all GMs is that a championship-or-bust game is one that you're going to end up busting most of the time. I feel like I'm pretty good at evaluating the competence of NBA GMs and identifying the moves that may end up being seen as critical mistakes when they make the moves...but that doesn't mean if I were in their position I'd know the magic move to make to ensure a championship team.

Sometimes there is no championship-winning play out there for you, and yet, the expectation is always that you're swinging for the fences when you seem close. That means even smart guys make big mistakes.

[Cavsfansince84]

Ooh, love the Paul Brown reference. Shout out Otto Graham!

I'd agree with both of you that Morey's first mover analytic advantage has dissipated to some degree.

However, I don't think the reason why his Harden move in Philly is blowing up in his face is due to other team's being smarter than they were in the past. Morey played with fire, and it looks like he's going to get burnt. It's been happening forever, analytics or no analytics.

Where I'm sympathetic here not just to Morey but all GMs is that a championship-or-bust game is one that you're going to end up busting most of the time. I feel like I'm pretty good at evaluating the competence of NBA GMs and identifying the moves that may end up being seen as critical mistakes when they make the moves...but that doesn't mean if I were in their position I'd know the magic move to make to ensure a championship team.

Sometimes there is no championship-winning play out there for you, and yet, the expectation is always that you're swinging for the fences when you seem close. That means even smart guys make big mistakes.

I'd agree that gms can't be judged under the same parameters as players are. At best all they can do is make a big move or two to give a team a window to contend or smaller moves to keep a team in position to contend. I think Morey does a pretty good of that. He's definitely one of the better gms imo.

[Slava]

Morey is like Billy Beane. Pioneered the push for analytics and was able to build a contender despite having less talent than the opposition, everyone else caught on and started using his methods (and winning with it), and ultimately, he never actually won.

I think he's an excellent GM tbh, any team would be lucky to have him. If it wasn't for a ridiculously stacked GS team, a CP3 injury, AND historically bad shooting in the deciding game 7, the 2018 Rockets would have won the title. They needed several bad breaks to lose that year, and as it stands, they're definitely one of the contenders for "best team to not win a title".

Which is crazy when you compare their roster to GS's. Who had the same core that went 16-1 and cruised to the title the year before.

Morey also had the fortune of working for Les Alexander for nearly all of his Houston tenure. Les was a dream owner in the sense that he did not put many spending limitations when improving the team and was happy being completely hands off with the basketball operations.

[rk2023]

53 points for A’Ja Wilson , tied for the WNBA single game scoring record!! Absolute stud, I’d say her resume (being a young player that too) as is right now is only paralleled by Steph and LBJ on the Men’s side - perhaps Giannis and Jokic come close.

[Doctor MJ]

53 points for A’Ja Wilson , tied for the WNBA single game scoring record!! Absolute stud, I’d say her resume (being a young player that too) as is right now is only paralleled by Steph and LBJ on the Men’s side - perhaps Giannis and Jokic come close.

Love the shout out but I'd have to side with Breanna Stewart over A'ja. They're certainly the Big 2 of this generation though. I did a thing recently just thinking about the players with greatest careers born in every decade. Here's what I came up with:

1990s: Nikola Jokic & Breanna Stewart
1980s: LeBron James & Maya Moore
1970s: Tim Duncan & Tamika Catchings
1960s: Michael Jordan & Cynthia Cooper
1950s: Magic Johnson & Uljana Semjonova

Went further back too, but would have to look up what I said for women from earlier eras.