2020-21 NBA Season Discussion

[Outside]

I just watched Bucks vs Nets game, it was a poor shooting night for both teams but to be fair, the defense was intense. I have to mention heroic PJ Tucker effort - he's not as fast as he used to be and he's sometimes outmatched against KD, but his effort is amazing to watch.

Middleton finally played a good game, although he was far from amazing. I don't know what to think about Giannis... he was agressive thoughout the game, which is a huge plus but at the same his decisions were horrible, he rarely could beat his man one on one and he didn't work that well as a roleman. Good for Milwaukee that he had transition opportunities and he's a monster off-ball as a cutter, so the more possessions like that, the better for him.

I'm afraid that Bucks won't win the series anyway, it's unreasonable to expect that Nets will continue to shoot that terrible. Still, it's a huge win for Milwaukee and they are still in the series - they just have to win another game.

Watching Giannis try to take Blake one on one at the top of the key has been painful. Blake is still very sturdy and really can't be moved by Giannis in the paint. I get that he's your best player but the Bucks really need to start playing Giannis as an off-ball cutter and P&R roll man. Their offense has looked plain ugly.

Really feels to me like the rub is that Point Giannis has a low playoff ceiling, but Point Giannis was also the key in finally turning Prospect Giannis into Star Giannis. Had he been quicker to pick up a devastating off-ball game everything would have played out differently, but Point Giannis allowed him to bypass the whole learning how to shoot thing and superficially appeared to make him unstoppable.

We're now many years into Giannis playing this way, and it seems like playoff defenses are getting better at dealing with it.

Several things combine to turn Blake into the Giannis-stopper. (It's bizarre that Blake being a "Giannis-stopper" is a thing.)

One is how insanely successful Giannis has been at getting to the rim in the RS, both in transition and in the half court, and how bad he is other than that. For his career, he takes 49.4 percent of his shots from 0-3 feet, and he has made those at a 73.6 percent clip. This season, his percentage of shots at the rim dropped to 45.1, but he made 83.7 percent of them. 16.9 percent of his shot attempts this season were dunks. His shooting percentages drop off a cliff outside of three feet. He's a slight shooting upgrade from Ben Simmons, and unlike Simmons, he'll actually take shots outside of ten feet, but the fact remains is that he's Simmons-adjacent as far as where he is effective and where he isn't.

On top of that is the role he's been put in -- as you say, Point Giannis. This exacerbates his on-ball need to get to the rim and atrophies his off-ball game. He should be a cutter receiving passes for dunks, and he'd be devastating at that. His lack of outside shooting would hurt, but he is what he is, and expanding the ways he gets to the rim would make him significantly more effective as a scorer.

Then there's this horrible offense. Maybe Budenholzer is good at something, but offense isn't it. For what seemed like the entire second half, Milwaukee gave the ball to someone, and that someone tried to do some iso-magic while the other players stood like statues in one spot around the three-point line. Absolutely awful. No movement, no cutting, maybe one screen then get out of the way. The first quarter was them getting great looks in transition or early offense before the defense was set, but once the Nets stopped that, it was the Bucks ugly offense. They had 30 after the first quarter, and they scored a measly 56 over the next three quarters.

Add all that up, and Defensive God Blake Griffin can stand between Giannis and the rim and wait, often with another guy to wall him up, and Giannis dutifully and predictably dribbled right into the defense, again and again. Blake could stand in the paint and watch Giannis jack up a three (he was 1-8, so the Nets are more than happy to see that), attempt to drive into him, or pass to one of his statue teammates on the perimeter so they could attempt to do something. Giannis had 41.2 USG% and .472 TS%.

Unless they suddenly find an NBA-caliber offense, I don't see the Bucks winning another game. How on earth did they have an ORtg of 117.2 in the RS?

[Doctor MJ]

My main point was +7 postseason rORtg being massive no matter how we looked at it.
As we discussed in the past, relative Rtg numbers in regular seasons have a changing scale over time. However, anything beyond past 6 mark (5.4ish according to some of my personal analysis fwiw) for postseason is always quite significant. Even more so than quite significant but I couldn’t find the proper wording for it. It’s where you start to wonder if there’s an actual goat claim for an individual and you start to investigate even further.

I think what I'd say is this:

1. More physically in-prime Dirk's team got wrecked by a nothing Warriors team.
2. '10-11 saw the Mavs find a magic fit that allowed them to become the best in a playoff run where the super-team they faced didn't realize that shooting was important in the NBA.
3. Dirk's not clearly more effective than Jokic as a scorer at this point, and he's not in Jokic's league as a passer or rebounder.
4. Dirk had no glaring edge on defense.

So on what actual basketball basis are we saying it makes sense to normalize relative to the level of basketball competence in the competition?

mostly the lack of optimization on dirk mavs

even though they were ahead of their time, their 3 point volume, long 2 pointer volume and spacing around dirk was suboptimal compared to the average (not even to top teams) team of 2021

jokic plays in rosters that try to have 4 3 point shooters and cutters around him when he post ups or holds the ball which is a luxury dirk didnt have in his prime (maybe in some circunstancial rosters?)

Hmm. What specific skill are you wanting to say Dirk was better at than Jokic?

I get the argument of Dirk playing in a less optimized era, but I've never heard anyone try to argue that Dirk was in Jokic's league as someone who could pass to 3-point shooters or cutters.

[MartinToVaught]

This is just ridiculous:

Read on Twitter

[falcolombardi]

I think what I'd say is this:

1. More physically in-prime Dirk's team got wrecked by a nothing Warriors team.
2. '10-11 saw the Mavs find a magic fit that allowed them to become the best in a playoff run where the super-team they faced didn't realize that shooting was important in the NBA.
3. Dirk's not clearly more effective than Jokic as a scorer at this point, and he's not in Jokic's league as a passer or rebounder.
4. Dirk had no glaring edge on defense.

So on what actual basketball basis are we saying it makes sense to normalize relative to the level of basketball competence in the competition?

mostly the lack of optimization on dirk mavs

even though they were ahead of their time, their 3 point volume, long 2 pointer volume and spacing around dirk was suboptimal compared to the average (not even to top teams) team of 2021

jokic plays in rosters that try to have 4 3 point shooters and cutters around him when he post ups or holds the ball which is a luxury dirk didnt have in his prime (maybe in some circunstancial rosters?)

Hmm. What specific skill are you wanting to say Dirk was better at than Jokic?

I get the argument of Dirk playing in a less optimized era, but I've never heard anyone try to argue that Dirk was in Jokic's league as someone who could pass to 3-point shooters or cutters.

well i think when young he was a driving threat that jokic is not and a bit of a better shooter (although jokic closed that gap fast) which make him a bit more of a scoring threat but overall you are right that jokic skill tool is more impressive

the thingh is that i dont like comparing skillsets on paper as a line way of evaluating players,

if you just list everythingh players can or cannot do some of them dont look as impressive but their impact on court is bigger that you would expect

olajuwon or Mchale could do it all and had a more impressive skillsets than moses malone (more moboloty, more post moves, bigger lenght, even probably equal/better passers) reading their skill perfiles you wouldnt expect moses to have been at their level offensovely

,yet moses probably was just as impactful offensively as them

someone like chris paul, a 6 foot, not super athletic, not super 3 point shooter, not particularly agressive passing or pressing the pace either, yet one of the biggest offensive impacts ever

in paper dirk skillset is lesser to jokic's, but i wouldnt consider relative impact not reflected in skill comparisions as worthless or noise, the fact dirk created relatively better offense than jokic, consistently, still has to be part of the comparision

[MartinToVaught]

Harden summed it up perfectly.

"I wish I could be 7-feet, run and just dunk. That takes no skill at all," Harden said. "I gotta actually learn how to play basketball and how to have skill. I'll take that any day."

It's truer and truer every season.

Couldn't disagree more. That quote was wrong the day Harden said it and is just as wrong now. He makes it sound like Giannis is some natural basketball prodigy. In reality, he was plucked out of obscurity in Greece and was never expected to become anything more than an intriguing role player. Like it or not, it took a lot of hard work for Giannis to get to where he is today. Harden didn't want to admit it because that was during his phase of whining about the MVP every year.

Ironically enough, this narrative on Giannis is kind of reminiscent of the discourse around Blake Griffin, another guy who was dismissed as just an athletic dunker and never got credit for the work he put into his game.

Also, let's not pretend like Harden's constant flopping, foul-baiting, laziness on defense and off the ball, etc. is the proper way to play the game either. And he's had his own issues in the playoffs over the years.

[Doctor MJ]

mostly the lack of optimization on dirk mavs

even though they were ahead of their time, their 3 point volume, long 2 pointer volume and spacing around dirk was suboptimal compared to the average (not even to top teams) team of 2021

jokic plays in rosters that try to have 4 3 point shooters and cutters around him when he post ups or holds the ball which is a luxury dirk didnt have in his prime (maybe in some circunstancial rosters?)

Hmm. What specific skill are you wanting to say Dirk was better at than Jokic?

I get the argument of Dirk playing in a less optimized era, but I've never heard anyone try to argue that Dirk was in Jokic's league as someone who could pass to 3-point shooters or cutters.

well i think when young he was a driving threat that jokic is not and a bit of a better shooter (although jokic closed that gap fast) which make him a bit more of a scoring threat but overall you are right that jokic skill tool is more impressive

the thingh is that i dont like comparing skillsets on paper as a line way of evaluating players,

if you just list everythingh players can or cannot do some of them dont look as impressive but their impact on court is bigger that you would expect

olajuwon or Mchale could do it all and had a more impressive skillsets than moses malone (more moboloty, more post moves, bigger lenght, even probably equal/better passers) reading their skill perfiles you wouldnt expect moses to have been at their level offensovely

,yet moses probably was just as impactful offensively as them

someone like chris paul, a 6 foot, not super athletic, not super 3 point shooter, not particularly agressive passing or pressing the pace either, yet one of the biggest offensive impacts ever

in paper dirk skillset is lesser to jokic's, but i wouldnt consider relative impact not reflected in skill comparisions as worthless or noise, the fact dirk created relatively better offense than jokic, consistently, still has to be part of the comparision

Hmm, let me put it like this.

Let's say Player B comes along in the wake of Player A. Player A was a legend whose skillset influenced the next generation at an age younger than Player A began. Hence when Player B hits his stride, he's literally more skilled than Player A on all fronts.

How do we judge each player?

It's complicated and there are different criteria to use to evaluate the players. If we're talking about a player purely relative to his own era, that's a valid criteria, if we're talking about a player's ability to innovate, that's a valid criteria, and if we're talking about just how good each player was at basketball based on the skills he has, that's a valid criteria.

I want to make clear that I can see these subtly different criteria and go with it, but I think it's important not to confuse them.

When people talk about Dirk being at a disadvantage because he didn't have as good a people to pass to, this rubs me the wrong way because Jokic is just a more intuitive basketball player than Dirk, and this would have been true had they been contemporaries.

To be clear, Dirk is a very smart basketball player, but Jokic is Jokic, and so anything that implies "Jokic is only better because..." really needs to be focusing on a skill that we realistically think Dirk had at least comparable talent at.

[eminence]

And there's some reporting that the guy who shoved PJ Tucker in that altercation on court last night is KD's personal bodyguard?

That's a very serious problem if true.

[Colbinii]

And there's some reporting that the guy who shoved PJ Tucker in that altercation on court last night is KD's personal bodyguard?

That's a very serious problem if true.

Extreme problem, especially because he came right at Tucker. It makes sense why Tucker was so upset at the guy afterwards.

[falcolombardi]

And there's some reporting that the guy who shoved PJ Tucker in that altercation on court last night is KD's personal bodyguard?

That's a very serious problem if true.

seems to be true, some places are reporting it


https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2021/6/11/22529547/kevin-durant-pj-tucker-fight-bodyguard-bucks-vs-nets-nba-playoffs

https://theathletic.com/2645987/2021/06/11/mike-budenholzers-job-survived-certain-death-after-an-ugly-game-3-against-the-nets-game-4-should-be-special/

[eminence]

I'm trying to come up with what I feel the proper consequences are, not sure. I'd assume the bodyguard banned from NBA arenas, consider pressing charges, and a massive fine for the Nets?

[Dupp]

And there's some reporting that the guy who shoved PJ Tucker in that altercation on court last night is KD's personal bodyguard?

That's a very serious problem if true.

Dude should be banned for life no two ways about it. He won’t be though because nba do a terrible job protecting their players.

[dcstanley]

He's on the Nets payroll so that makes things a bit trickier.

[Texas Chuck]

To be clear, Dirk is a very smart basketball player, but Jokic is Jokic, and so anything that implies "Jokic is only better because..." really needs to be focusing on a skill that we realistically think Dirk had at least comparable talent at.

I really appreciate this entire post and the distinction you are making. I know I was troubled in part by perceived disrespect of Dirk and by extension all of NBA history prior to just a few years ago. But this further makes it clear you aren't disrespecting them as much as you are of the belief that basketball thinking and thus players are just at the highest level they've ever been--if I'm understanding you correctly.

That said, Dirk definitely had some advantages over Jokic. Until his injury leading into the 12-13 season he was far more mobile than Jokic and going back to when he was the age Jokic is now a much better athlete as well.

He drew fouls at a higher rate enough to make it matter particularly in the playoffs and was better at converting those additional opportunities into points. Jokic obviously a very good FT shooter in his own right, but Dirk still better.

Jokic does have 2 very good 3-pt shooting years but in between he has two bad ones. Neither shot 3's at high volume but Dirk was a much more consistent 3-pt shooter. I'd not yet concede Jokic to be his equal from beyond the arc.

He turned the ball over considerably less. Now I mean this not as any criticism of Jokic. He's his teams primary direct creator and as such there is naturally going to be more turnovers. But even with that Dirk was especially great at taking care of the ball. One of the hidden ways Dirk has more defensive impact than is perceived.

There are probably some others I could list, but my goal is not to argue Dirk is a better player than Jokic so much as to say Jokic has not surpassed him in every way as you seemed to be implying.

[70sFan]

And there's some reporting that the guy who shoved PJ Tucker in that altercation on court last night is KD's personal bodyguard?

That's a very serious problem if true.

Is it really true? When i saw it the first time, I wondered who is that guy. If that's true, then it's just terrible and should never happen.

[70sFan]

Hmm, let me put it like this.

Let's say Player B comes along in the wake of Player A. Player A was a legend whose skillset influenced the next generation at an age younger than Player A began. Hence when Player B hits his stride, he's literally more skilled than Player A on all fronts.

Jokic isn't more skilled on all fronts though. Dirk was better shooter, he was much better at drawing fouls, he had better faceup game, he was a bit better defensively as well. They are not even similar, Jokic doesn't play like Dirk at all.

I'm not as high on Dirk as some, but I don't think it's a proper description of this comparison. Even if you think that Jokic is better (which is fair, I strongly consider him to be better as well), it doesn't make him better at everything.

[Doctor MJ]

To be clear, Dirk is a very smart basketball player, but Jokic is Jokic, and so anything that implies "Jokic is only better because..." really needs to be focusing on a skill that we realistically think Dirk had at least comparable talent at.

I really appreciate this entire post and the distinction you are making. I know I was troubled in part by perceived disrespect of Dirk and by extension all of NBA history prior to just a few years ago. But this further makes it clear you aren't disrespecting them as much as you are of the belief that basketball thinking and thus players are just at the highest level they've ever been--if I'm understanding you correctly.

That said, Dirk definitely had some advantages over Jokic. Until his injury leading into the 12-13 season he was far more mobile than Jokic and going back to when he was the age Jokic is now a much better athlete as well.

He drew fouls at a higher rate enough to make it matter particularly in the playoffs and was better at converting those additional opportunities into points. Jokic obviously a very good FT shooter in his own right, but Dirk still better.

Jokic does have 2 very good 3-pt shooting years but in between he has two bad ones. Neither shot 3's at high volume but Dirk was a much more consistent 3-pt shooter. I'd not yet concede Jokic to be his equal from beyond the arc.

He turned the ball over considerably less. Now I mean this not as any criticism of Jokic. He's his teams primary direct creator and as such there is naturally going to be more turnovers. But even with that Dirk was especially great at taking care of the ball. One of the hidden ways Dirk has more defensive impact than is perceived.

There are probably some others I could list, but my goal is not to argue Dirk is a better player than Jokic so much as to say Jokic has not surpassed him in every way as you seemed to be implying.

Cool, and to be clear, I didn't mean to imply that Jokic is better than Dirk in all things. I just don't like using the general "He's be more effective at X today than he was back then" to try to nullify something that Jokic has a clear apples-to-apples comparison on.

I'm happy to listen to argument for Dirk, but I don't want to hear about arguments that merely imply Dirk's passing could match Jokic's. If it's going to be argued, I think it needs to be argued based on what Dirk specifically has shown capable of dong.

[bondom34]

Granted he's been out but that's it for LA's only other real big man option.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Stinks for LA and Serge, always want him to do well.

[Texas Chuck]

Cool, and to be clear, I didn't mean to imply that Jokic is better than Dirk in all things. I just don't like using the general "He's be more effective at X today than he was back then" to try to nullify something that Jokic has a clear apples-to-apples comparison on.

I'm happy to listen to argument for Dirk, but I don't want to hear about arguments that merely imply Dirk's passing could match Jokic's. If it's going to be argued, I think it needs to be argued based on what Dirk specifically has shown capable of dong.

Nobody has argued Dirk's passing would ever approach Jokic' though right? I'm a huge Dirk homer, but even I have my limits. And I hate speculating on how effective or not a player might be in a different era because its just speculation. I'm much more interested in real-life Dirk compared to real-life Jokic.

I think you confused at least a couple of us when you moved from Jokic and Dirk to Player A and Player B. I definitely took A and B to mean Dirk and Jokic respectively. So while it seems obvious in retrospect that you went to letters instead of names because you were then talking more generally, I missed it. My bad.


I think my main difference of opinion from you is your belief that Jokic can influence the game to a greater degree through his passing than Dirk could as a ball screener, post player, and even just a decoy. Or no that's not it. Let me use the letters. I'm not convinced Player B is always more impactful than player A. Because Jokic may well be more impactful than Dirk, but is Luka more impactful than Curry? I know that's not apples to apples with Dirk/Jokic, but it illustrates the on-ball scoring/passing dual threat versus a guy terrifying with or without the ball as Dirk and Steph were and are.

[GSP]

As great as Jokic is it's gonna be tough having a strong enough playoff defense to win it all with him as your center. You're gonna need an All Defense wing and an elite shotblocking, pick and roll and versatile 4 that can switch on anyone except maybe Pgs. That's gonna be extremely difficult to find considering how much he gives up defensively at the rim as a rim protector, inability to contain penetration and struggles with pick and roll defense. You can't play drop for an entire title run

[MO12msu]

Really really impressed with Ayton’s defense basically this entire playoff run.