RealGM Top 100 List #5

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#341 » by ThaRegul8r » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:38 am

ElGee wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:SHAQ

Ok I have
Bird
Lebron
Magic
Hakeem
Shaq
Duncan

Magic has lowest peak
Bird shortest prime
Hakeem less career

Duncan peak and prime are both below shaq and lebron


For now i have to go with shaq. He has career over lebron and is only one who can match his peak and prime.




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Can you or someone else help with this, as I'm queuing up my post on early Bird-Magic -- how does Bird have a shorter prime than Magic?? Bird's an MVP-level player from 80-88 (9 years). Magic is from 84-91 (8 years). I've still yet to see a reason why people focus on prime versus the whole career -- I can barely keep up with people ranking by peak, prime, accolades, career, ability to play in the post 2005 NBA -- but I've seen a lot of strange exercises in declaring when prime starts and ends.


I suppose it has to do with people's obsessions with players being "The Man," the "Alpha Dog" and all that.

Because, of course, players make no positive contributions to their team's success if they're not the clear-cut, undisputed "Alpha Dog." Thus the other parts of their career don't count.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#342 » by ElGee » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:39 am

therealbig3 wrote:Oh, and if we're going to take pot shots at LeBron for not being able to beat a 50-win team by himself, while Duncan was able to win a ring...then let's examine the year Duncan won a ring. He beat a weak Phoenix team, a dysfunctional Lakers team, and the Mavs without Dirk for half the series. Then one of the weakest Finalists ever in the Nets.

LeBron ran into the championship Celtics in 08, the 59-win Magic with a prime Dwight Howard and a red-hot shooting supporting cast, and the Celtics that pushed the Lakers to 7 games in the Finals...I'm assuming that's the 50-win team you're talking about, in which case, the 2010 Celtics raised their game to another level in the playoffs that year.

LeBron had a worse team, with a worse coach, going up against tougher competition. No wonder he didn't win a ring, while Duncan did.


While the Celtics did "raise" their game in the PS (IIRC, metric support this), when they were healthy that year they were a 57-win team (+5.5 SRS) for 69 RS games. I just posted this, which is one of my favorite things about in/out data. People try to paint broad strokes about a player by equating team results to them...and they don't even have accurate team results.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#343 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:40 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
The "eye-test" had Kobe with 9 All-Defense 1st teams.....and there are no meaningful defensive stats outside of team DRtg, so what are you referring to.


Peak Kobe's D ratings:

05: 30th (last place)
06: 15th
07: 24th

Where was Peak Kobe's impact on defense? During this time period his team actually had a better D rating with him off the court than on the court.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#344 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:43 am

Baller2014 wrote:+1. Magic was on the wrong side of 3 upsets, the Rockets twice (in 81 and 86) and the KJ Suns (in 1990).

The 90 Suns were better than a lot of the teams that beat Duncan (04 Lakers, 06 Mavs, 09 Mavs, 10 Suns, 11 Grizzlies).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#345 » by ThaRegul8r » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:46 am

colts18 wrote:
Baller2014 wrote:+1. Magic was on the wrong side of 3 upsets, the Rockets twice (in 81 and 86) and the KJ Suns (in 1990).

The 90 Suns were better than a lot of the teams that beat Duncan (04 Lakers, 06 Mavs, 09 Mavs, 10 Suns, 11 Grizzlies).


Which is what he opens himself up to by constantly playing the "weaksauce competition" card.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#346 » by Baller2014 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:48 am

colts18 wrote:
Baller2014 wrote:+1. Magic was on the wrong side of 3 upsets, the Rockets twice (in 81 and 86) and the KJ Suns (in 1990).

The 90 Suns were better than a lot of the teams that beat Duncan (04 Lakers, 06 Mavs, 09 Mavs, 10 Suns, 11 Grizzlies).

1) I don't agree with that statement at all,
2) Magic losing with the team he had in 1990 was a much bigger upset than Duncan losing in tight series to better and more balanced teams in 04 and 06 through no fault of his own)
3) You are dishonestly listing post-prime Duncan teams like they matter. They clearly do not. Stick to 98-07.
4) Not that it matters, since it was post prime, but you do get that Manu was ridiculously injured in 2011 right?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#347 » by ElGee » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:50 am

fpliii wrote:I'm still struggling with the four bigs. Hopefully I'll figure something out in the next couple of days. Just a couple of questions for anybody who has time:

1) How do we feel about KG's defensive game horizontally compared to Hakeem's?
2) How many more years of 84-88 level Bird would you guys need to see to consider him here? How many years at his 80-83 level instead? I'm not trying to take into account years Bird didn't play, don't get me wrong. Just trying to get an idea of how big the perceived gap is between the current batch and him.


I'll address No. 1 because I'll post on Bird later. I've broken down film in past projects on KG if anyone wants to search (as well as 2010/11 film supported by stat-tracking). With Hakeem I've never gone into that detail on the site, so with both those caveats, I'll give you my general take:

-KG is better horizontally than maybe anyone ever, including Hakeem. I'll exclude Russell for a second because my point mostly centers around the 2 and 3-man game concept that is so prevalent today. Alert: If you're criteria is for 2005-present rules, pay attention! Kevin Garnett is like Ray Lewis against the pick and roll. This basically impacts the whole court, and it's why I think his defensive RAPM scores are so good in Boston.

-guarding the screener: Garnett, because of his length and coverage, has an incredible balance of showing against the ball handler around a screen while still simultaneously sticking with his man. His communication on this front is matched by no one I've seen -- constant talking and communicating about the timing of switching on/off and showing. The inability to allow a team to gain an advantage via the PnR -- the most common shot-creation method in the current NBA rules -- blows up weak side and strong side threats because KG and his man still stick to the ball handler and screener and there is no breakdown (no help needed) on the backside of the defense.

-as the helper: Here's where KG really flexes his Middle Linebacker. He reads offenses like Manning and Brady read defenses. PnR advantages are about who is involved -- usually who is dribbling -- but it's also about angles and spacing of the screener in relation to the other guys on the court. Garnett's positioning in this regard -- what used to be illegal in the illegal D days -- is scary good. It's human chess. Go watch game tape of the 08 or 10 playoffs -- he always moves the proper distance out to the screen action while keeping track of not just his man, but the help-the-helpers (because KG, in accordance with the defensive scheme) has communicated to his guys to slide into helping position on a screen. This was the strength of the historically good Boston D, and it started with him, and it's a lot of the reason why (again, IMO) his RAPM numbers were amazing in Boston despite a diminished rim presence.

PS I'm sure there's youtube breakdowns or a Lowe analysis of this somewhere on the net with visuals/video. Don't have to time to it here myself, but if you find a game, just watch how he handles these situations...to me, that's the horizontal impact.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#348 » by Reservoirdawgs » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:52 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:The "eye-test" had Kobe with 9 All-Defense 1st teams.....and there are no meaningful defensive stats outside of team DRtg, so what are you referring to.

.


And as we all know, the All-Defense rankings are absolute jokes. DRAPM rates Kobe as a very subpar defender, which supports the eye test as outside of a few moments (mainly in the early 2000s) for 3/4 of his career. I'll get more into what you have to say when Kobe comes up so as to not continue to derail the thread. I will say, if we're going to use the laughable selection of Kobe's 9 All-Defense 1st Teams as the "eye test" then Lebron must be 4X the player as Kobe due to his league MVPs ;) .
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#349 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:55 am

Baller2014 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
Baller2014 wrote:Barry beat a Bullets team who would not even have qualified for the Western Conference playoffs this year. It hardly compares to some of the earlier examples given, like Duncan taking out Shaq and Kobe in their primes.


Get serious -

Elvin Hayes HOF
Wes Unseld HOF
Phil Chenier 2nd team all-nba
Kevin Porter led league in assists
Mike Riordan - 5 year starter in NBA

Rookie Truck Robinson on bench - future 1st team all-nba

How many teams in the NBA have 2 HOFers/Top 50 all-timers on them playing with a 2nd team all-nba player?

Probably puts them battling for 3rd in West.


HoF is a meaningless title. Mikan and Cousy are HoFers, and they would be lucky to make it in today's NBA. Elvin Hayes and Unseld might not have been top 100 players of all-time. They are no comparison to prime Shaq and Kobe.


I can't help you - Elvin Hayes was real talented.
Unseld was an MVP.
They were ranked 49 and 57 last time through - dont think that they will drop 43 places.

No, they are not as good as Shaq or Kobe.

There have been 33 HOFers since 1968, 2 of whom (Petrovic and Marculonis) were foreigners.
The other 31
http://bkref.com/tiny/5VW2J
all have a legit shot at Top 100
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#350 » by Baller2014 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:57 am

Unseld was one of the most ridiculous MVPs of all time. Even voters in his own time were embarrassed they'd voted for him and basically never did so again after his first year. Hayes was talented. So is Amare Stoudemire. But like Hayes he brings a tonne of negatives too.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#351 » by penbeast0 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 1:59 am

This is for fun guys . . . it's a way to keep one's mind off the inevitable disappointments of the offseason and enjoy some basketball discussion. Can we keep it on the light and fun side please; it's starting to get a bit defensive (or offensive) in tone in places.

Thanks
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#352 » by therealbig3 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:21 am

ElGee wrote:
fpliii wrote:I'm still struggling with the four bigs. Hopefully I'll figure something out in the next couple of days. Just a couple of questions for anybody who has time:

1) How do we feel about KG's defensive game horizontally compared to Hakeem's?
2) How many more years of 84-88 level Bird would you guys need to see to consider him here? How many years at his 80-83 level instead? I'm not trying to take into account years Bird didn't play, don't get me wrong. Just trying to get an idea of how big the perceived gap is between the current batch and him.


I'll address No. 1 because I'll post on Bird later. I've broken down film in past projects on KG if anyone wants to search (as well as 2010/11 film supported by stat-tracking). With Hakeem I've never gone into that detail on the site, so with both those caveats, I'll give you my general take:

-KG is better horizontally than maybe anyone ever, including Hakeem. I'll exclude Russell for a second because my point mostly centers around the 2 and 3-man game concept that is so prevalent today. Alert: If you're criteria is for 2005-present rules, pay attention! Kevin Garnett is like Ray Lewis against the pick and roll. This basically impacts the whole court, and it's why I think his defensive RAPM scores are so good in Boston.

-guarding the screener: Garnett, because of his length and coverage, has an incredible balance of showing against the ball handler around a screen while still simultaneously sticking with his man. His communication on this front is matched by no one I've seen -- constant talking and communicating about the timing of switching on/off and showing. The inability to allow a team to gain an advantage via the PnR -- the most common shot-creation method in the current NBA rules -- blows up weak side and strong side threats because KG and his man still stick to the ball handler and screener and there is no breakdown (no help needed) on the backside of the defense.

-as the helper: Here's where KG really flexes his Middle Linebacker. He reads offenses like Manning and Brady read defenses. PnR advantages are about who is involved -- usually who is dribbling -- but it's also about angles and spacing of the screener in relation to the other guys on the court. Garnett's positioning in this regard -- what used to be illegal in the illegal D days -- is scary good. It's human chess. Go watch game tape of the 08 or 10 playoffs -- he always moves the proper distance out to the screen action while keeping track of not just his man, but the help-the-helpers (because KG, in accordance with the defensive scheme) has communicated to his guys to slide into helping position on a screen. This was the strength of the historically good Boston D, and it started with him, and it's a lot of the reason why (again, IMO) his RAPM numbers were amazing in Boston despite a diminished rim presence.

PS I'm sure there's youtube breakdowns or a Lowe analysis of this somewhere on the net with visuals/video. Don't have to time to it here myself, but if you find a game, just watch how he handles these situations...to me, that's the horizontal impact.


This post and the fact that I've been extolling the virtues of KG basically the entire project have me STRONGLY considering changing my vote to KG...or at least voting for him after Shaq and Hakeem.

The ONE criticism of his actual game that I think is legitimate is his ability to be a consistent self-creator on offense against good defenses, but that's becoming a lot less relevant to me when I consider that dragging bad teams to average levels isn't nearly as important as elevating good teams to elite levels, and that Garnett's skillset is PERFECT for the latter situation. Even moreso than Duncan...I still believe there's value in his back to the basket scoring for sure, even on the current Spurs...but it's not as important as KG's superior shooting/range and passing. Defensively, you've kind of outlined why he's probably the best defensive player since Russell.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#353 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:25 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:


What happened to Shaq's teams from 95-99? You set this up in a way that if I bring up Kobe's success from 00-04, then you can just mention Shaq, which makes this criteria pointless.


96- 72 win Bulls
97- 64 win Jazz
98- 62 win Jazz
99- 61 win pace Spurs

Those teams averaged 65 wins. 4 60+ win teams. Tell me, how many wins does Kobe have against 60+ win teams without Shaq. I'll give you a hint: it's less than 1.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#354 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:26 am

Baller2014 wrote:I take them at face value, and the prima facie evidence tells me that the competition in 1975 sucked compared to pretty much all the modern teams we're talking about. It's not Barry who is getting dissed, he'd have been a great player today, it's the weaksauce opposition he faced. Barry would probably make my top 25 all-time list, despite his inconsistencies and personality issues.


NBA Centers in 1975 who would be best center in current weak sauce league

McAdoo
Cowens
Jabbar
Unseld
Lanier
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#355 » by colts18 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:32 am

GC Pantalones wrote:Not true. His numbers plummeted in elimination games against everyone

That makes it worse. So you are saying his elimination game numbers are also sucked against mediocre defenses too? Kobe's track record in elimination games is bad

2003: lost by 28
2004: lost by 13
2006: lost by 31
2008: lost by 39
2011: lost by 36


Kobe played a big part in those losses.

Kobe averaged 24-3-2, .490 TS% in those games. He averaged just 2.3 assist per games.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#356 » by Baller2014 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:34 am

DQuinn1575 wrote:
Baller2014 wrote:I take them at face value, and the prima facie evidence tells me that the competition in 1975 sucked compared to pretty much all the modern teams we're talking about. It's not Barry who is getting dissed, he'd have been a great player today, it's the weaksauce opposition he faced. Barry would probably make my top 25 all-time list, despite his inconsistencies and personality issues.


NBA Centers in 1975 who would be best center in current weak sauce league

McAdoo
Cowens
Jabbar
Unseld
Lanier


This coming from the guy who referred to Duncan as having "top 20, top 50 and top 100 players" on his 2003 Spurs team, just because of their historical accomplishments. I voted for Kareem at #2, so obviously I rate him, but he was hurt this year, and moaning about being traded, which caused the Bucks to miss the playoffs. The rest wouldn't be close to the best 5 in todau's game, they're all horribly overrated players.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#357 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:36 am

Baller2014 wrote:Unseld was one of the most ridiculous MVPs of all time. Even voters in his own time were embarrassed they'd voted for him and basically never did so again after his first year. Hayes was talented. So is Amare Stoudemire. But like Hayes he brings a tonne of negatives too.


Yes Unseld may have been the worst MVP -that's why he was only 57th,

yes he only got one MVP award

Team got like 20 games better with Unseld

Not many guys got two.

Let's talk about Duncan, Shaq, LeBron,Bird, etc.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#358 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Jul 10, 2014 2:41 am

Baller2014 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
Baller2014 wrote:I take them at face value, and the prima facie evidence tells me that the competition in 1975 sucked compared to pretty much all the modern teams we're talking about. It's not Barry who is getting dissed, he'd have been a great player today, it's the weaksauce opposition he faced. Barry would probably make my top 25 all-time list, despite his inconsistencies and personality issues.


NBA Centers in 1975 who would be best center in current weak sauce league

McAdoo
Cowens
Jabbar
Unseld
Lanier


This coming from the guy who referred to Duncan as having "top 20, top 50 and top 100 players" on his 2003 Spurs team, just because of their historical accomplishments. I voted for Kareem at #2, so obviously I rate him, but he was hurt this year, and moaning about being traded, which caused the Bucks to miss the playoffs. The rest wouldn't be close to the best 5 in todau's game, they're all horribly overrated players.



Can't wait to see who you wind up voting for in slots 91-100.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#359 » by E-Balla » Thu Jul 10, 2014 3:05 am

therealbig3 wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:
Mutnt wrote:
No, no. None of that, 'he' won a ring stuff. Prove to me, through stats and metrics that Duncan did more heavy lifting for his teams than LeBron.

Duncan's on/off in the playoffs 2001-03 = +27.4
Lebron's career high on/off in the playoffs = +24.6
Lebron's playoff on/off from his last 3 years with Cleveland = +18.3

Major difference in their on/off from their 3 years of heavy lifting. One got a ring and the other couldn't beat a 50 win team.


This is a tiny sample size, where you're using only the playoffs. What about RS on/off (a much bigger sample size)?

Duncan 01-03: +12.2
LeBron 08-10: +16.3

And that includes 08, which isn't part of LeBron's true prime. He didn't become an ATG-caliber player until 09.

Also, the evidence has been given, Duncan didn't carry garbage from 01-03. ElGee and ShaqAttack have all made some great posts regarding his supporting cast in those years.

Well their regular season on/off is pretty close (personally I think 08 Lebron is the start of MVP level Lebron but I can see someone saying its not his true prime). Either way I will agree Lebron at his best is a little better than Duncan but Duncan's prime is better because of his consistency. Lebron doesn't have a 4 year stretch as good as Duncan from 01-04.

And I missed those posts by them so I'm about to go look for them real quick before I comment on them.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 

Post#360 » by E-Balla » Thu Jul 10, 2014 3:10 am

Mutnt wrote:
GC Pantalones wrote:
Mutnt wrote:
No, no. None of that, 'he' won a ring stuff. Prove to me, through stats and metrics that Duncan did more heavy lifting for his teams than LeBron.

Duncan's on/off in the playoffs 2001-03 = +27.4
Lebron's career high on/off in the playoffs = +24.6
Lebron's playoff on/off from his last 3 years with Cleveland = +18.3

Major difference in their on/off from their 3 years of heavy lifting. One got a ring and the other couldn't beat a 50 win team.


1. Sources. I'm interested in what on/off data are you looking at since I'm getting different numbers.

Bball ref.

2. So your method of evaluating impact is based on looking at how a team performs with a certain player on the court and comparing that to the tiny sample size of minutes he's off court? Cool, high five bro. You realize right, that the sample size of guys like prime LeBron and Duncan being off court in the playoffs is like somewhere in the range of 100-150 minutes per playoff run (actually, in 2010 Cleveland just played like 70 minutes with LeBron off court). Not to mention this is all based on playing against 2 or 3 teams only, where matchups, offensive/defensive orientation by teams, injuries/form and other factors all affect the data.

Well its one of many ways to evaluate impact. I want to see something that tells me Lebron is as impactful as Duncan because sure Lebron's a more impactful regular season guy but he declines in the postseason (overall) while Duncan raises his level of play. For two players as close as they are in the regular season and post season it makes a difference. And that's before going into longevity because Duncan's prime is about a decade while Lebron's is about 6 years.

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