'17-'18 POY discussion

[NinjaSheppard]

Anthony Davis bruised his ribs right before halftime and scored 31 points in the second half.

[JordansBulls]

Anthony Davis bruised his ribs right before halftime and scored 31 points in the second half.

Didn't realize they had the same record as the Cavs now.

[The-Power]

Any new top 5s given the last few weeks?

Lillard and Davis sure are making their push into the top 5, and so is Paul simply by staying healthy.

Generously speaking, the only players I can realistically see ending up in my top 5 after the playoffs are Harden, Paul, Curry, Durant, Green, Lillard, Butler, Towns, Jokic, Westbrook, Davis, Giannis, LeBron, Irving, Embiid and Oladipo. Any other player making a late push would shock me.

But even out of these players, many guys would have to have exceptional playoffs (everybody needs to be at least solid/good regardless) to shoot up the rankings. This is especially true for guys like Green, Durant and LeBron with relatively unimpressive regular seasons, as well as guys who still have to convince me to belong in such discussions (especially Oladipo, Towns and Jokic, and perhaps Irving to be honest).

[GSP]

Any new top 5s given the last few weeks?

Lillard and Davis sure are making their push into the top 5, and so is Paul simply by staying healthy.

Generously speaking, the only players I can realistically see ending up in my top 5 after the playoffs are Harden, Paul, Curry, Durant, Green, Lillard, Butler, Towns, Jokic, Westbrook, Davis, Giannis, LeBron, Irving, Embiid and Oladipo. Any other player making a late push would shock me.

But even out of these players, many guys would have to have exceptional playoffs (everybody needs to be at least solid/good regardless) to shoot up the rankings. This is especially true for guys like Green, Durant and LeBron with relatively unimpressive regular seasons, as well as guys who still have to convince me to belong in such discussions (especially Oladipo, Towns and Jokic, and perhaps Irving to be honest).

What about Gobert?

[The-Power]

What about Gobert?

Can't imagine seriously considering him. Too many missed games to catch up and Utah would need a really deep playoff run on the back of Gobert which I just can't see happening.

[Triples333]

Hoping Lillard can continue his hot stretch and make a run for some top 5 votes, but given the talent in the league, it's hard to see it happening despite a 31.4 PPG, 62.5 TS February.

Curry has better season numbers than that and he's not even being talked about (67.5% ts%). But how you finish is an important factor so you never know.

[Moonbeam]

Hoping Lillard can continue his hot stretch and make a run for some top 5 votes, but given the talent in the league, it's hard to see it happening despite a 31.4 PPG, 62.5 TS February.

Curry has better season numbers than that and he's not even being talked about (67.5% students). But how you finish is an important factor so you never know.

I'd probably have Curry at number 2 behind Harden right now, so I wasn't thinking of Lillard getting votes ahead of Curry.

[Doctor MJ]

For me at this point Harden and Curry seem like the clear #1 & #2. I don't expect Curry to be in MVP voters top consideration, but there's no one other than Harden that to me has a real case. The younger guys like Giannis and Davis, I just am not nearly as confident in what they bring to the table for a great team.

What's interesting though is that I've been thinking about Embiid more. In terms of raw +/-, the only non-GS/HOU guys ahead of him are DeRozan & Butler. Butler was easily ahead before the injury, but by season's end he'll be totally out of it. DeRozan keeps improving and is the best player on a great team, but there's like zero doubt in my mind that Embiid is the better player.

Am I crazy to put Joel Embiid 3rd on my list?

[Outside]

For me at this point Harden and Curry seem like the clear #1 & #2. I don't expect Curry to be in MVP voters top consideration, but there's no one other than Harden that to me has a real case. The younger guys like Giannis and Davis, I just am not nearly as confident in what they bring to the table for a great team.

What's interesting though is that I've been thinking about Embiid more. In terms of raw +/-, the only non-GS/HOU guys ahead of him are DeRozan & Butler. Butler was easily ahead before the injury, but by season's end he'll be totally out of it. DeRozan keeps improving and is the best player on a great team, but there's like zero doubt in my mind that Embiid is the better player.

Am I crazy to put Joel Embiid 3rd on my list?

I did a comparison on BBRef between Embiid, Davis, DeRozan, Chris Paul, Giannis, and LeBron. What stands out to me about Embiid:

-- He's 5th on that list in scoring at 23.6 per game, just behind DeRozan at 24.0. Not that 23.6 is disqualifying, but it's low.

-- From a basic box score standpoint, Giannis looks more impressive:

Giannis 27.2 pts, 10.2 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.5 blk, 2.9 tov
Embiid 23.6 pts, 11.1 reb, 3.2 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.8 blk, 3.9 tov

-- Embiid's differential between ORtg and DRtg is by far the lowest -- 4, compared to 22 (Paul), 16 (Davis), 11 (Giannis) 9 (LeBron), 8 (DeRozan)

-- Embiid has the lowest VORP, 2nd lowest BPM, lowest WS, and lowest WS/48.

-- Embiid has the second lowest TS% (57.7) and second highest TOV% (16.0).

Philly is hugely better with Embiid on vs off (15.8 pts in ORtg/DRtg), but Giannis is similar (15.0).

Maybe you have some impact stats that favor Embiid, but he doesn't look as good as the other candidates based on the basic stats. I've got Harden, then Curry, and was looking at Butler until he got hurt. Giannis or Davis seem like the best candidates for third at this point, but that all gets thrown in the blender and reshuffled based on the PS.

[Doctor MJ]

For me at this point Harden and Curry seem like the clear #1 & #2. I don't expect Curry to be in MVP voters top consideration, but there's no one other than Harden that to me has a real case. The younger guys like Giannis and Davis, I just am not nearly as confident in what they bring to the table for a great team.

What's interesting though is that I've been thinking about Embiid more. In terms of raw +/-, the only non-GS/HOU guys ahead of him are DeRozan & Butler. Butler was easily ahead before the injury, but by season's end he'll be totally out of it. DeRozan keeps improving and is the best player on a great team, but there's like zero doubt in my mind that Embiid is the better player.

Am I crazy to put Joel Embiid 3rd on my list?

I did a comparison on BBRef between Embiid, Davis, DeRozan, Chris Paul, Giannis, and LeBron. What stands out to me about Embiid:

-- He's 5th on that list in scoring at 23.6 per game, just behind DeRozan at 24.0. Not that 23.6 is disqualifying, but it's low.

-- From a basic box score standpoint, Giannis looks more impressive:

Giannis 27.2 pts, 10.2 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.5 blk, 2.9 tov
Embiid 23.6 pts, 11.1 reb, 3.2 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.8 blk, 3.9 tov

-- Embiid's differential between ORtg and DRtg is by far the lowest -- 4, compared to 22 (Paul), 16 (Davis), 11 (Giannis) 9 (LeBron), 8 (DeRozan)

-- Embiid has the lowest VORP, 2nd lowest BPM, lowest WS, and lowest WS/48.

-- Embiid has the second lowest TS% (57.7) and second highest TOV% (16.0).

Philly is hugely better with Embiid on vs off (15.8 pts in ORtg/DRtg), but Giannis is similar (15.0).

Maybe you have some impact stats that favor Embiid, but he doesn't look as good as the other candidates based on the basic stats. I've got Harden, then Curry, and was looking at Butler until he got hurt. Giannis or Davis seem like the best candidates for third at this point, but that all gets thrown in the blender and reshuffled based on the PS.

Hmm. None of these arguments resonate for me.

It's not that I don't look at box score stuff, but all of these "knocks" are so insignificant?

DPOY-level center scores slightly less than DeRozan? Not a problem.
Gets less assists than a point forward? Well, yeah.

ORtg/DRtg differential? You realize that that's not referring to +/- right? I didn't think anyone used Dean Oliver's old stats. Even when he introduced them he acknowledged he wouldn't take the DRtg seriously at all.

Lower VORP/WS. I mean, okay, but Embiid is putting up great box score numbers. Maybe slightly worse than these other guys, but the notion that 23/11 with great anchoring defense is something other than megastar worthy is just weird.

57.7% TS? Not exactly a problem. Embiid is clearly a weaker offensive player than the other competitors here and yet still puts up efficiency beyond what Russell Westbrook has ever pulled off.

High TO%? Team is worse in turnovers when he's off the floor, and in general the offense works really damn well whenever it's played through him.

You then acknowledge Embiid's great on/off, conunter with Giannis, but manage to not even look at the raw on despite the fact it was clearly right next to the number you looked up. Philly with Embiid is FAR better than Milwaukee with Giannis.

Let me just reference against the point I made in the post of mine before that you quoted to compare Embiid with Giannis and Davis.

Raw +/-:

Embiid +339
Davis +171
Giannis +162

Embiid's edge over the other two is just plain huge, and the notion in general that he's got far better teammates around doesn't really work for me. Yeah Simmons is a great rookie, but the past two years, it's been Embiid that the team has lived and died with.

When I see something like that, along with box score stats that are quite clearly excellent by all reasonable expectations, it's awfully hard for me to knock him.

What I'd need to see, and maybe I will, is some more sophisticated lineup-based argument, probably involving +/- and regression, that overrules the raw data.

[NinjaSheppard]

For me at this point Harden and Curry seem like the clear #1 & #2. I don't expect Curry to be in MVP voters top consideration, but there's no one other than Harden that to me has a real case. The younger guys like Giannis and Davis, I just am not nearly as confident in what they bring to the table for a great team.

What's interesting though is that I've been thinking about Embiid more. In terms of raw +/-, the only non-GS/HOU guys ahead of him are DeRozan & Butler. Butler was easily ahead before the injury, but by season's end he'll be totally out of it. DeRozan keeps improving and is the best player on a great team, but there's like zero doubt in my mind that Embiid is the better player.

Am I crazy to put Joel Embiid 3rd on my list?

I did a comparison on BBRef between Embiid, Davis, DeRozan, Chris Paul, Giannis, and LeBron. What stands out to me about Embiid:

-- He's 5th on that list in scoring at 23.6 per game, just behind DeRozan at 24.0. Not that 23.6 is disqualifying, but it's low.

-- From a basic box score standpoint, Giannis looks more impressive:

Giannis 27.2 pts, 10.2 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.5 blk, 2.9 tov
Embiid 23.6 pts, 11.1 reb, 3.2 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.8 blk, 3.9 tov

-- Embiid's differential between ORtg and DRtg is by far the lowest -- 4, compared to 22 (Paul), 16 (Davis), 11 (Giannis) 9 (LeBron), 8 (DeRozan)

-- Embiid has the lowest VORP, 2nd lowest BPM, lowest WS, and lowest WS/48.

-- Embiid has the second lowest TS% (57.7) and second highest TOV% (16.0).

Philly is hugely better with Embiid on vs off (15.8 pts in ORtg/DRtg), but Giannis is similar (15.0).

Maybe you have some impact stats that favor Embiid, but he doesn't look as good as the other candidates based on the basic stats. I've got Harden, then Curry, and was looking at Butler until he got hurt. Giannis or Davis seem like the best candidates for third at this point, but that all gets thrown in the blender and reshuffled based on the PS.

Hmm. None of these arguments resonate for me.

It's not that I don't look at box score stuff, but all of these "knocks" are so insignificant?

DPOY-level center scores slightly less than DeRozan? Not a problem.
Gets less assists than a point forward? Well, yeah.

ORtg/DRtg differential? You realize that that's not referring to +/- right? I didn't think anyone used Dean Oliver's old stats. Even when he introduced them he acknowledged he wouldn't take the DRtg seriously at all.

Lower VORP/WS. I mean, okay, but Embiid is putting up great box score numbers. Maybe slightly worse than these other guys, but the notion that 23/11 with great anchoring defense is something other than megastar worthy is just weird.

57.7% TS? Not exactly a problem. Embiid is clearly a weaker offensive player than the other competitors here and yet still puts up efficiency beyond what Russell Westbrook has ever pulled off.

High TO%? Team is worse in turnovers when he's off the floor, and in general the offense works really damn well whenever it's played through him.

You then acknowledge Embiid's great on/off, conunter with Giannis, but manage to not even look at the raw on despite the fact it was clearly right next to the number you looked up. Philly with Embiid is FAR better than Milwaukee with Giannis.

Let me just reference against the point I made in the post of mine before that you quoted to compare Embiid with Giannis and Davis.

Raw +/-:

Embiid +339
Davis +171
Giannis +162

Embiid's edge over the other two is just plain huge, and the notion in general that he's got far better teammates around doesn't really work for me. Yeah Simmons is a great rookie, but the past two years, it's been Embiid that the team has lived and died with.

When I see something like that, along with box score stats that are quite clearly excellent by all reasonable expectations, it's awfully hard for me to knock him.

What I'd need to see, and maybe I will, is some more sophisticated lineup-based argument, probably involving +/- and regression, that overrules the raw data.

My problem with Embiid is

1) He plays 31 minutes a game
2) His +/- discrepency with his teammates is large
3) The Sixers aren't the Warriors or Rockets where they can realistically afford to play him 31 minutes a game.

The Sixers are +1.9 overall, the Bucks are -0.7 and the Pelicans are +1.0 in terms of point margin (just looking at those three guys). The Sixers don't have the best record out of those teams so the point margin isn't relevant to me.

If you have three guys who are playing regular superstar minutes and there is a difference in team performance that is more attributable to luck than performance (best point differential doesn't reflect record) I'd understanding valuing it. However, the Sixers are fighting for a playoff spot and they very clearly need Embiid to play more than 31 minutes a game and he simply physically hasn't been able to do it so far.

I just have a hard time valuing Embiid's +/- at this point in time compared to players performing true superstar roles when he has been limited in doing so and it is having an adverse effect on his team.

[Dr Spaceman]

For me at this point Harden and Curry seem like the clear #1 & #2. I don't expect Curry to be in MVP voters top consideration, but there's no one other than Harden that to me has a real case. The younger guys like Giannis and Davis, I just am not nearly as confident in what they bring to the table for a great team.

What's interesting though is that I've been thinking about Embiid more. In terms of raw +/-, the only non-GS/HOU guys ahead of him are DeRozan & Butler. Butler was easily ahead before the injury, but by season's end he'll be totally out of it. DeRozan keeps improving and is the best player on a great team, but there's like zero doubt in my mind that Embiid is the better player.

Am I crazy to put Joel Embiid 3rd on my list?

I did a comparison on BBRef between Embiid, Davis, DeRozan, Chris Paul, Giannis, and LeBron. What stands out to me about Embiid:

-- He's 5th on that list in scoring at 23.6 per game, just behind DeRozan at 24.0. Not that 23.6 is disqualifying, but it's low.

-- From a basic box score standpoint, Giannis looks more impressive:

Giannis 27.2 pts, 10.2 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.5 blk, 2.9 tov
Embiid 23.6 pts, 11.1 reb, 3.2 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.8 blk, 3.9 tov

-- Embiid's differential between ORtg and DRtg is by far the lowest -- 4, compared to 22 (Paul), 16 (Davis), 11 (Giannis) 9 (LeBron), 8 (DeRozan)

-- Embiid has the lowest VORP, 2nd lowest BPM, lowest WS, and lowest WS/48.

-- Embiid has the second lowest TS% (57.7) and second highest TOV% (16.0).

Philly is hugely better with Embiid on vs off (15.8 pts in ORtg/DRtg), but Giannis is similar (15.0).

Maybe you have some impact stats that favor Embiid, but he doesn't look as good as the other candidates based on the basic stats. I've got Harden, then Curry, and was looking at Butler until he got hurt. Giannis or Davis seem like the best candidates for third at this point, but that all gets thrown in the blender and reshuffled based on the PS.

Hmm. None of these arguments resonate for me.

It's not that I don't look at box score stuff, but all of these "knocks" are so insignificant?

DPOY-level center scores slightly less than DeRozan? Not a problem.
Gets less assists than a point forward? Well, yeah.

ORtg/DRtg differential? You realize that that's not referring to +/- right? I didn't think anyone used Dean Oliver's old stats. Even when he introduced them he acknowledged he wouldn't take the DRtg seriously at all.

Lower VORP/WS. I mean, okay, but Embiid is putting up great box score numbers. Maybe slightly worse than these other guys, but the notion that 23/11 with great anchoring defense is something other than megastar worthy is just weird.

57.7% TS? Not exactly a problem. Embiid is clearly a weaker offensive player than the other competitors here and yet still puts up efficiency beyond what Russell Westbrook has ever pulled off.

High TO%? Team is worse in turnovers when he's off the floor, and in general the offense works really damn well whenever it's played through him.

You then acknowledge Embiid's great on/off, conunter with Giannis, but manage to not even look at the raw on despite the fact it was clearly right next to the number you looked up. Philly with Embiid is FAR better than Milwaukee with Giannis.

Let me just reference against the point I made in the post of mine before that you quoted to compare Embiid with Giannis and Davis.

Raw +/-:

Embiid +339
Davis +171
Giannis +162

Embiid's edge over the other two is just plain huge, and the notion in general that he's got far better teammates around doesn't really work for me. Yeah Simmons is a great rookie, but the past two years, it's been Embiid that the team has lived and died with.

When I see something like that, along with box score stats that are quite clearly excellent by all reasonable expectations, it's awfully hard for me to knock him.

What I'd need to see, and maybe I will, is some more sophisticated lineup-based argument, probably involving +/- and regression, that overrules the raw data.

I don’t think you’re crazy for considering Embiid this highly. Even without getting into a nuanced argument about plus minus and such:

One thing I really care about for big men is how often they “pop” off the screen. With perimeter guys it’s different, because they hold the ball a lot, but with big men if you’re just casually watching a game and you repeatedly notice a guy doing things (not even necessarily good things!), it’s really really notable. We’re conditioned to think in general that big guys just won’t be as involved or as influential as smalls, but with Embiid it’s differnet.

Watch any Sixers game and it’s absurd how the game just bends to focus on Embiid. It’s like you’re watching through some sort of filter where everything around him is twisted and distorted and he’s the only thing that comes into focus. Part of that is because he’s so physically imposing, but an even bigger part is that everyone playing the game you’re watching is also focused on him. He just has this sort of magnetism about him where, on both ends of the floor, all 9 other players are accounting for his whereabouts and movements at all time, even when the action doesn’t involve him, and even to their own detriment. It’s honestly scary, and an effect I don’t think I’ve seen from a big man since Shaq more than a decade ago.

That alone is not a reason to vote for him of course, but it does put the impact numbers into some context. In a way it seems impossible for a guy like that not to have league-leading impact.

[Outside]

Double post

[Outside]

For me at this point Harden and Curry seem like the clear #1 & #2. I don't expect Curry to be in MVP voters top consideration, but there's no one other than Harden that to me has a real case. The younger guys like Giannis and Davis, I just am not nearly as confident in what they bring to the table for a great team.

What's interesting though is that I've been thinking about Embiid more. In terms of raw +/-, the only non-GS/HOU guys ahead of him are DeRozan & Butler. Butler was easily ahead before the injury, but by season's end he'll be totally out of it. DeRozan keeps improving and is the best player on a great team, but there's like zero doubt in my mind that Embiid is the better player.

Am I crazy to put Joel Embiid 3rd on my list?

I did a comparison on BBRef between Embiid, Davis, DeRozan, Chris Paul, Giannis, and LeBron. What stands out to me about Embiid:

-- He's 5th on that list in scoring at 23.6 per game, just behind DeRozan at 24.0. Not that 23.6 is disqualifying, but it's low.

-- From a basic box score standpoint, Giannis looks more impressive:

Giannis 27.2 pts, 10.2 reb, 4.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 1.5 blk, 2.9 tov
Embiid 23.6 pts, 11.1 reb, 3.2 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.8 blk, 3.9 tov

-- Embiid's differential between ORtg and DRtg is by far the lowest -- 4, compared to 22 (Paul), 16 (Davis), 11 (Giannis) 9 (LeBron), 8 (DeRozan)

-- Embiid has the lowest VORP, 2nd lowest BPM, lowest WS, and lowest WS/48.

-- Embiid has the second lowest TS% (57.7) and second highest TOV% (16.0).

Philly is hugely better with Embiid on vs off (15.8 pts in ORtg/DRtg), but Giannis is similar (15.0).

Maybe you have some impact stats that favor Embiid, but he doesn't look as good as the other candidates based on the basic stats. I've got Harden, then Curry, and was looking at Butler until he got hurt. Giannis or Davis seem like the best candidates for third at this point, but that all gets thrown in the blender and reshuffled based on the PS.

Hmm. None of these arguments resonate for me.

It's not that I don't look at box score stuff, but all of these "knocks" are so insignificant?

DPOY-level center scores slightly less than DeRozan? Not a problem.
Gets less assists than a point forward? Well, yeah.

But he scores a LOT less than Giannis and Davis, the main guys I'd consider competition to Embiid for 3rd in POY.

BTW, I meant to include a link to the query I used, so here it is.

http://bkref.com/tiny/hrTw1

ORtg/DRtg differential? You realize that that's not referring to +/- right? I didn't think anyone used Dean Oliver's old stats. Even when he introduced them he acknowledged he wouldn't take the DRtg seriously at all.

You're right that DRtg is seriously flawed, and I would've been better off if I didn't reference it. Let's just go with ORtg, where Embiid is dead last, by a lot.

127 - Paul
120 - Davis
118 - LeBron
117 - Giannis
116 - DeRozan
106 - Embiid

Lower VORP/WS. I mean, okay, but Embiid is putting up great box score numbers. Maybe slightly worse than these other guys, but the notion that 23/11 with great anchoring defense is something other than megastar worthy is just weird.

23/11 is really good. But we're talking about how Embiid compares to other great players, and it doesn't seem logical to dismiss these stats because Embiid is really good. Yes, he's really good, but these other guys look better when looking at VORP, BPM, WS, and WS/48.

Do you consider these stats useless for this type of comparison? If Embiid were leading the group in those categories, would you be using that as an argument for him?

57.7% TS? Not exactly a problem. Embiid is clearly a weaker offensive player than the other competitors here and yet still puts up efficiency beyond what Russell Westbrook has ever pulled off.

Westbrook isn't part of the comparison, and he's the poster child for really poor shooting efficiency. Saying Embiid is better than Westbrook in TS% doesn't change the fact that he trails the other guys in the comparison. Davis and Giannis, the two guys I'd consider ahead of Embiid for 3rd, score significantly more than Embiid (Davis 28.1, Giannis 27.2, Embiid 23.6) and at significantly higher shooting efficiency (Davis 61.7 TS%, Giannis 59.8, Embiid 57.7).

High TO%? Team is worse in turnovers when he's off the floor, and in general the offense works really damn well whenever it's played through him.

Embiid's TO% is significantly higher -- 16.0, compared to 8.6 for Davis and 11.4 for Giannis. Turnovers is an acknowledged problem for him.

You say Philly is worse in turnovers when Embiid is off the floor and the offense works really well when he's on the floor. Let's look at the numbers for Embiid, Giannis, and Davis.

Embiid
1630 minutes on
1414 minutes off
54% minutes played
16.4 TOV% on
18.5 TOV% off
2.1 TOV% differential
113.0 ORtg on
103.7 ORtg off
-9.3 ORtg differential

Giannis
2239 minutes on
853 minutes off
72% minutes played
14.1 TOV% on
15.8 TOV% off
1.7 TOV% differential
110.8 ORtg on
105.6 ORtg off
-5.2 differential

Davis
2095 minutes on
984 minutes off
68% minutes played
14.5 TOV% on
15.9 TOV% off
1.4 TOV% differential
110.8 ORtg on
109.6 ORtg off
1.2 ORtg differential

Several things to see here.

Embiid has played a significantly lower percentage of minutes compared to Giannis and Davis. That tells me two things:

-- Giannis and Davis should get credit for being on the court more. Availability being the most important ability.

-- Embiid being off the court more means that is putting the other players and bench in a position of having to perform for a much longer time without their star compared to the Bucks and Pelicans, including more minutes with the bench against starters for the opposition. That would likely lead to a greater drop in team performance with Embiid off compared to the other two.

Philly shows a slightly larger increase in TOV% with Embiid off compared to Giannis and Davis, but all three are worse with their guy off the floor. Not a surprise. This doesn't negate the large difference in individual TOV% between Embiid and the other two.

The ORtg differential for Embiid is much higher than for the other two, supporting your argument that Philly's offense works much better when he's on the floor. Mitigating factors are 1) the higher percentage of minutes that non-Embiid lineups are forced to play, including more minutes against opposition starters; and 2) Davis' ORtg differential is likely minimized by the 641 minutes that Cousins played with Davis off, leaving only 343 minutes with both Davis and Cousins off.

You then acknowledge Embiid's great on/off, conunter with Giannis, but manage to not even look at the raw on despite the fact it was clearly right next to the number you looked up. Philly with Embiid is FAR better than Milwaukee with Giannis.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the raw on you're referring to.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/embiijo01/on-off/2018
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01/on-off/2018

Do you mean that Philly's ORtg is 113.0 with Embiid on vs the Bucks 110.8 with Giannis on? If so, I'm confused, because I thought you were pointing to the differential for both the player's team and the opponent -- the drop in the team's ORtg plus the increase in the opponent's ORtg when the player sits.

Let me just reference against the point I made in the post of mine before that you quoted to compare Embiid with Giannis and Davis.

Raw +/-:

Embiid +339
Davis +171
Giannis +162

Embiid's edge over the other two is just plain huge, and the notion in general that he's got far better teammates around doesn't really work for me. Yeah Simmons is a great rookie, but the past two years, it's been Embiid that the team has lived and died with.

That is an argument in Embiid's favor. But a mitigating factor again is that Embiid gets to play a larger percentage of his minutes with starters. I tried to find info about how many minutes he played with Simmons, Covington, Saric, and Redick (or at least three of those four), but I didn't find a way to do that easily on nba.com or BBRef.

When I see something like that, along with box score stats that are quite clearly excellent by all reasonable expectations, it's awfully hard for me to knock him.

Again, I'm not knocking him. The question is whether that one piece of info, especially given the lower percentage of minutes that he's played, is enough to offset all the other info I discussed. The raw +/- is an argument in Embiid's favor, but it's not the be-all, end-all.

What I'd need to see, and maybe I will, is some more sophisticated lineup-based argument, probably involving +/- and regression, that overrules the raw data.

So RAPM or xRAPM? Besides the inherent difficulty of interpreting RAPM that I brought up in the recent top 100 thread, there are two issues with that:

-- RAPM needs multiple seasons of possession data to reduce noise and present meaningful results. It's not well suited for single season evaluations.

-- I don't get the notion of advanced metrics "overruling" the raw data, which I presume means the basic stats that I presented. Shouldn't it be used in combination with basic stats, rather than overruling them (which sounds to me like disregarding them)?

EDIT: After reading Dr Spaceman's post, I want to second one point -- no, you're not crazy to put Embiid 3rd. I've got him a bit lower, but there's an argument for having him that high.

[Dr Spaceman]

Also, one note I want to make on the inevitable Davis vs. Embiid comparison:

There’s a reason why the box score metrics seem so slanted in favor of Davis while the impact metrics seem so far slanted toward Embiid.

Davis’ game is all about leveraging his athleticism to take advantage of cracks in opposing defenses. Embiid’s is all about making the defense pay so much attention to him that cracks open up for his teammates.

Think about it this way: how many times have you seen Embiid get an “easy” bucket? Like honestly, how many times have you seen him finish a lob around the rim or gallop down the lane as the roll man or cut in hard to the basket? These are routine plays for Davis, and yet Embiid almost never does them.

This goes a long way to explaining Davis’ efficiency advantages. He gets these easy buckets and converts them at a GOAT rate.

But Embiid almost never does stuff like this, mostly because defenses are so focused on denying him precisely those chances.

So with everything we know of history, and what the impact stats tell us now, this just isn’t as valuable as Embiid’s approach. Embiid parks his body in spots where it puts the defense in check, forcing them to make a counter move, and this is what creates so many holes for his teammates. It’s also why his team’s offense is so good when he’s on the floor. His individual offense looks kind of ugly, off-balance midrange jumpers and one-legged floaters in traffic, but note how easy Simmons’ drives to the rim are when he’s out there, how many more looks are open to Redick and RoCo when Embiid screens for them, and how the Sixers’ offense seems to have a flow and a thesis when he’s out there and look lost when he’s not.

It’s tough to push back against Davis right now who is having clearly the best stretch of his career, but what it seems to me is he’s just making out his effort and putting the motor into higher gear rather than fjnding a better approach that’s truly sustainable for the long haul.

[Dr Spaceman]

Any new top 5s given the last few weeks?

Right now the only thing that’s clear to me is Harden at #1. Well, and Steph at #2, unless he ends up missing serious time with this new ankle sprain.

After that honestly my list is a mess, with Butler, Lillard, Davis, Embiid, Giannis, and Paul. To me, I’m going to have to make a big decision here how I feel about availability vs. quality of play. For example, to me Paul is clearly better than both Giannis and Davis. At the same time, those guys have played a lot more than him. Butler May fall out of contention here completely if he misses the rest of the season. Embiid to me may end up being the best overall combination of on-court value and availability. I could see myself voting hm 3rd depending on how his playoffs go. Giannis to me still seems like a guy who hasn’t figured it out completely and I’m still not high on Davis’ game compared to others here. Lillard’s hot streak jolts him into this group but I don’t know how sustainable it is.

If I had to try a top 5 ranking as of now, I’d go:

1. Harden
2. Steph
3. Butler
4. Paul
5. Embiid

With Giannis and Davis just a touch below the pack.

[bondom34]

I think I'm a bit higher on Davis than the Dr.'s both are but Harden is the clear 1. I'd debate Davis at 2 due to value added depending on how they finish and Curry 3rd but theyre 2 and 3. After that its pretty murky. I'm not sure I like Embiid there due to the lowered minutes just yet and Butler being hurt drops him a lot especially since he can't make the playoff impressions he would have. Giannis still probably is in at 4th and for now Butler at 5 til someone bumps him. So...
1. Harden
2. Curry or AD
3. AD or Curry
4. Giannis
5. Butler

[eminence]

It's a mess going into the playoffs this year, lots of guys could step up and take spots.

[NinjaSheppard]

What do we think of Kevin Durant and LeBron James?

More so Kevin Durant because I see Curry being mentioned and Kevin Durant has been healthier this year and he is JAG to most people on the lists.

I assume people are holding the month where everyone quit on LeBron against him which I think is reasonable.

I was going to make my list which was going to be

1. Harden
2. Davis
3. Giannis
4. Curry
5. Dame

and realized I didn't have either of the "consensus media top 2 players on it"

[eminence]

What do we think of Kevin Durant and LeBron James?

More so Kevin Durant because I see Curry being mentioned and Kevin Durant has been healthier this year and he is JAG to most people on the lists.

I assume people are holding the month where everyone quit on LeBron against him which I think is reasonable.

I was going to make my list which was going to be

1. Harden
2. Davis
3. Giannis
4. Curry
5. Dame

and realized I didn't have either of the "consensus media top 2 players on it"

Think LeBron's outplayed KD to date (and has a case for current top 5, though I'd probably have him outside). KD is probably closer to 10 for me right now, just been very blah for a guy of his talent so far this season. Both are close enough and have the history for me to heavily weight playoffs that they could wind up anywhere (more leeway given to Lebron, and Draymond gets a bit of the same from me).